NFL Teams You Are All Wrong About

0:00Oh, welcome to Heed the Call. An NFL podcast. It's the midweek show Dan Hanzo's here. Mark Cessler. Back. It's like a Cal Ripken streak. Here we go. Dude. That was uncalled for, I'm sorry. Cal Ripken at like age 19. Long way to go. It's in the grave around the ones and twos. See, here's the thing. The grave, they didn't break him yet, Mark. He's younger than us. Yeah. He still thinks his favorite football team is good and holy. And in need of defense and couldn't possibly be part of the problem for long standing organizational failures. This Jared Stillman guy we talked about on the last show.

1:02Right. Who had the gall, the audacity to speak in an honest Frank matter to the quarterback. When the quarterback asked him a question, the quarterback being Cam Ward, play that back just in case people miss the Monday show. Is how would you, how would Cam Ward assess the way Cam Ward has played so far this preseason? How would you assess it? Not what. You don't think so? I don't think so. I'm glad you don't think so. That's good. Cam, how would you assess it? OK. So that is Jared Stillman. And you can say who had his, according to old crank hog Paul Kaharski had his credential pulled. And now is no longer welcome at Tennessee Titans headquarters to provide daily coverage of the team. That is, yes, is that a forward response to the QB1's question back at him?

2:02Is it perhaps, Sessie adversarial? Perhaps, but as someone who grew up, as well as you did, in the New York market, that is nothing. That is, that is, there is attention. And there should be attention at times between players and the media. It's not supposed to be cozy. So an absolute disgrace by the Tennessee Titans pulling this guy's credential because he's not falling in line with how they want to present their former number one overall pick. And I just hope, Sessie. I hope that Justin, who is staunchly in favor of the revocation of credentials for media members who dare to question the team or the star. I hope Justin learns eventually that the team being big crybabies is not something that should be defended. Yeah, Justin is in his Halcyon days when it comes to the Titans fandom and fandom in general. And I can appreciate it.

3:03I can look back on my youth. And I know why I got an illogical barfights over a Brown's team that was going to finish with five wins, trying to explain the people that they were really an 11 win team hidden inside the costume of five win team. But the difference here is like number one, like a couple of little things like we know that Mark's isn't all Zeus or medium in it. I think it might be. I think it might be. I think it might be. So I'm going to I'll get out of the way here. But I will just say that way, we'll get wait. Hold your thought. OK. Oh, yeah, play the whole thing. Yeah. Yeah. The old sister made it. So I said so. We just didn't even said this guy gets it. As you're saying, Mark, well, I don't understand why my one of my few breakaway side shows is somehow couched within the media. I can just get over yourself. Keep going. Well, I would say we know at NFL when we shifted from posting like AP type copy and stuff to writing critically about teams. Who were the few teams that would respond?

4:04Was it the Niners? Was it like the Ravens and Steelers? The Chiefs? Yeah, it was like winning teams were like say whatever you want. Like you could walk up to Michael Jordan in a grocery store and say, I think you suck at basketball. He doesn't care because he knows he doesn't. But it was the Jets. It was the Jaguars. It was the Browns. It was teams like the Titans. So hypersensitive. I will say this, that reporter, whether that beat like some or not, you can certainly get where they're going on that. Or use them as an actual journalist. Right. He's not. He means in 2026. They don't believe he is. But he floated an actual question to Cam Ward. It was Cam Ward who threw it back in that way that created the Ted a Ted between the two. And so I think the problem that the Titans looks sensitive, but you're making, and it's not Cam Ward's wish here, you're making Cam Ward look like he can't go back and forth with a reporter too. I don't know. The whole thing is kind of like if you, you've true so much more attention to it when you do this than just let these guys whose pain attention

5:07to a Titans press conference. About four humans, let it roll. And let it be over sensitive. And let's just hope that it wasn't Cam Ward himself that initiated Get This Guy out of the media room. Should we let Justin talk about this? Should we think so? Should we? Yes. He might have a response to this. I feel like Justin might have a dissenting opinion. OK, let's give it to him. Gravy, go ahead. So you did it again. You called Jared Stillman a reporter. He's not a reporter. He's a YouTuber who left ESPN radio last summer because they couldn't agree to a farm. Was he a reporter when he was on ESPN radio, the worldwide leader? He was a media reporter. He was a talk show host personality. What are we? What are we? I mean, I don't. I mean, I wouldn't call us reporters. Reporters. Reporters. All right, forget about reporter. He's a media member. Yes. He is a media manager. He is a media manager. Is does he belong in the building now? Go ahead. I think that the timing of this is certainly suspect.

6:07And there's no doubt the Titans come off looking soft, oversensitive. Like, yes, it's a bad look for the team to do this when they did it. It's also highly hilarious to me and coincidental that we literally have the conversation yesterday. And then this morning, it's the big news, at least in Titans Lane. It's big news. But Paul Caharski, who you mentioned, reported this happening initially. No crank out. He's reported that Stillman says the team told him his YouTube based operation no longer warrant access inside the facility. I would argue if you're going to pull his credential because he's just a YouTuber now, you should have done it when he left ESPN, not a year later for random undisputed. Where, why did they knew it? They know what his act is, right? They're not dumb. Yes. These team PR people are savvy. They know who's in the building, who's floating questions. Like, they already knew. So why give him the credential if he's not an adequate journalist and then pull it now? I agree. I think that's very suspect, no doubt. But Stillman is very different from everyone else on the Titans beat and his recent behavior,

7:09not at the press conference towards Cam Ward. I want to be clear. I don't, I think the timing could have something to do with that. But like Paul Caharski, you call him the old crank hog, because he's a tough guy too. I mean, he's from the Northeast. He does the coming at the coaches and asking the tough questions. And he's never going to have his credential pulled. He's been covering the team for 30 years. Right, because he's establishment. This is, yeah, go ahead. Jared Stillman, meanwhile, this is from PK's reporting. Most credentialed media are with the team on a regular basis. Stillman typically arrives for selected press conferences and has gone quickly afterward. He often pops in for periodic, performative appearances at press conferences. His irregular presence around the team distinguishes him from most credentialed media who cover it regularly. Let me just get this right. So the only other guy on the beat who's afraid, not afraid to ask the hard-hitting questions to the players and management, doesn't like the other guy that's kind of on his turf.

8:10So now he's trying to lessen him as a media presence or somehow a guy not putting in the quote unquote work. Quick pop in just to add some necessary context here that the guys did not have during the taping. Polka Harski did make it clear that he did not agree with the team's decision to pull Stillman's credential while still giving the reasons he thought they might have done so. Okay, back to the show. I just, I'm so, I don't want our show to be peddling things that ever support the idea of silencing media that speaks negatively, whether it's about a football team or your government or anything else. You might not like this individual, but you can't silence him and shudder him from the building, Justin. I have got to see that. I do see that, but I really do think Stillman is different. MPK's not the only tough reporter the guys from A to Z sports, ask the tough questions as well. Here's more from PK that is, this is what I believe to be the reason that Stillman got pulled.

9:11Stillman habitually advances conspiracy theories without factual support. PK goes on to a list multiple examples of him speculating wild theories and claiming them to be facts. Like that's what the Titans don't want. They don't want people just making up nonsense. That's not what I heard in the exchange that led to him being barred from the facility. I heard this isn't the exchange that led. There was a very silly time. It was outrageous, Justin. This happened the next day after that got traction. No, not well. This got traction over the weekend. This happened. Okay, and when did he get his credential on Tuesday morning? Okay, come on now. He also over the weekend spouted off an insane conspiracy theory that Robert Sala changed his mind on playing starters in preseason week three because he was afraid that a bad performance would result in a media firestorm about wondering if he's experiencing more of the theory. It is a conspiracy. Robert Sala said they got great work in the joint practice. That's a point practice. Maybe he has reporting on it,

10:11whether or not we respect it or maybe he just doesn't have a report. I promise you, he doesn't have reporting on it. All right, but Justin, one thing people that go to, and I'm not just talking about Jared Stillman's YouTube channel, but in the world of like to dance point about establishment, like we understand that Paul Kahirsky is a long time titan's journalist. That's not in question. We get that and what goes along with it. But if I sit down and watch a bunch of chatterboxes on YouTube and they say or they spout conspiracy theories or they think they think this, like I know the context as the viewer, right? Like I'm not looking at like, this isn't, I mean Tom Brokaw, this is someone who's got a YouTube channel. And I don't understand why pulling access enriches the experience for anyone. Because can't we, isn't it our job to decipher through what the content we choose to look at? Yeah, they're trying to gatekeep the information that comes in and out of that building. And I think if we can just move away from the Stillman of it all

11:13and please no more Kahirsky pull quotes. The idea, I think the bigger question here is the titans trying to protect, not just cam ward, the investment, but the conversations around cam ward and trying to present him with a completely fresh start in year two, but that is the mistake going back to the beginning that teams that aren't typically run well make, they try to put their fingers in jars that they should not be in, let the kids play on the field speak for itself, have him ready to go with the right surrounding talent and play collar and head coach. I think they still believe they have that as they go into the season and then just let the results speak for themselves. And then three weeks from now, when they're 2 and 0 and wards playing out of his mind, if Stillman gets up to say a question, let cam ward go off, let him be like, oh, remember when you said the Baba

12:14and take the victory lap and put that guy in his place by kicking out of the building, all you do is bring this type of attention and makes you feel sensitive and concerned, quite frankly, and defensive about your number one overall pick. I think it's just a lesson in handling the media and why that's important. That's, can I close with this? And I think that we're both right. Like I think you guys are right, the titans are making a mistake, gatekeeping and being overly sensitive and trying to control whatever narrative that is impossible to control. Because Stillman still has a YouTube show. And he does, because he's not in the building, doesn't mean he's not gonna double down on what he's been saying for months. At the same time, he is a clown. He is a legitimate clown. And he does not just, say in the titan's title, for the title cast, this is just a personal attack on the guy. We're talking about the idea of the journalism side of it, Justin, not the, I agree, but he is not a journal, the titans shouldn't be so sensitive

13:14and it's a bad look, but this guy also doesn't need a credential. Both things can be true. And if they start revoking more credentials, the problem is it sets a bad precedent. And it might scare people from the honest. You don't have to be a 58 year old reporter who wrote for a newspaper in 1999 to be judged and valued as real media. Like I don't, I think it's a, look at us. Our, one of our top platforms is YouTube. Like does that make us less of a football analyst? Or should we not be sharing strong opinions? Because we're not in the building? Like it's just, it's a slippery slope. Or not credentialed. I told you, I told you, I told you, I told you, I totally agree with you. And look, A to Z sports is an upstart new media venture that launched a couple of years ago with a bunch of guys in their 20s and 30s who are out at every practice and every training camp and every press conference. And those guys have a credential and they're new media. They're not old legacy. It's not about legacy versus not. It's about being a professional and he still is not a professional. That's your opinion. So I don't care. I agree with you that this is an overless sensitive

14:15dumb move by the team. That's all that we wanted to tell you. You could feel both ways, Justin. And you, you could feel both ways, Justin, you see it wrong by the team, but you, personally, you don't like the, the guys. I just feel as a, someone who holds a journalism degree from Northeastern University and a master's degree in dumbass teams from the New York Jets. That you do more harm than good with this type of shit. And I hope, I really do because I love you. Justin, I love you as a friend and as a producer. You're a friggin' all pro. As, and I know your fandom is so legitimate, I want Kim Ward to be successful. It would be funnier for the show if he sucks, maybe. But I'm at a stage of my life where I want to see people that are close to me be happy. And that would be Kim Ward succeeding. I just hope this team is putting this man in this young man in the right position to be successful. We shall see, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, week one.

15:16How about that? Oh, she, You gotta love how they set that shit up, Sassy. They don't even realize it sometimes. No, it's, I mean, I think they, I think someone realizes it, but that's a, we're getting out of the gate hot on that one. Do you know what I'm made sure to, and by the way, you made your, your own journalist? Yeah, I'd like to hear. You went to many colleges and universities, as I recall. I did. It probably kind of just sort of ran out of choices, but I majored in public relations. So I think that my contribution to this conversation was easiest. Bang on, bro. Bang on the entire campus. Yeah. You want Justin to be happy too, right? I think Justin is speaking from his heart. And he reminds me of the 25 year old Browns fan and me that has been sort of shot and killed by multiple snipers at this point. But I'm, I see that innocence. Yeah. I see that innocence. No, no, no. That's a great thing. By the way, plug that Titans podcast. If you want to get more on this topic in the Titans in general. Much more.

16:17Yeah, totally. Music, city, audible, a Tennessee Titans podcast. Or Dan, you have some more fun clever names creative, like, Titans. I know he's, I'm always partial to a, a low-s Titans ultimo, but any number of, topics, the two Justin's is another one too. That's, that's kind of, that was just sitting right there. When you have a podcast hosted by two guys named Justin's, just the two Justin's pretty good. The other Justin is a, a sweetheart. He's a wonderful guy. So we're attention his way. All right. Let's, let's get calm down here. I knew we had it. As soon as I saw that, I was like, we got it. That's. And just put it this way, Justin, if you thought that old Uncle Dan and Mark came a little hard there, don't hit the drop. Just be happy Connor's not here. Mr. Syracuse himself. Right. Yeah, no, no. I do think it's amazing that this happened today when we just talked about it yesterday. It's like, it's incredible actually.

17:18Well, we gave you a platform, like, we allowed you to speak your piece, which is, you know, equal. That's how we were. How about the sound off in the comments, if you thought that the real heroes of this were Dan and Mark giving Justin a platform to respond? A little bit. Yes, smash the likes, hit the subscribe, comment on what you've just seen. All right, let's reset. Let's take a break. And when we get back, one of our favorite traditions, Aaron Schatz, FDN, Almanac. Grand Puba, stay right there. Heeey. Like a lot of people, I added creatine to my daily routine for the strength and cognitive benefits. But as the market blew up, I started wondering what was actually in the tub on my counter. Most brands focus on flashy flavors, but momentous went back to the drawing board to launch signature spec creatine. Absolutely, Mark. It's built on a higher standard of quality, manufactured in a pharmaceutical facility with reverse osmosis water purification and checked by an expanded six-stage testing process

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19:22you better have a copy of the FTN football, Almanac. And the man behind it, the godfather of DVOA, the inventor. The godfather's not even strong enough. Aaron Schatz, chief analytics officer at FTN Fantasy. Welcome back to heed the call, Mr. Schatz. Thank you for having me back, Almanac. We are so close, you can almost taste the actual real life football with starters. I know, right? Like the idea that preseason football is gone, never to return for another turn around the sun. That fills me with joy. And also what fills us with joy is your Almanac because it's just like mandatory reading for our show and has been going all the way back to our around the NFL days. I love reading it on the beach. I love that's my process of getting into the new season. And we wanna talk about some teams

20:22that jumped out to us from the Almanac this year because one thing that Sessie, we love is that the Almanac doesn't pull any punches and it keeps it real. And if you have warts, it's gonna get discussed. And if you have hidden strengths, that's gonna be brought to the light as well. So it's very, it's essential for smart football fans. Yeah, I'd say one thing to like Aaron, you've got this team of writers. And like it's reading these things. A lot of times I'll be up reading them very late by like lamp light. And it's a type of sports writing that doesn't really exist right now because you're blending, like you're kind of like the math teachers that make math fun, which would have been rare for me. And like, but each, it's not a compliment, Aaron. Well, it is because I think each team though, it's like, it's surprising. Like surprising sports writing and writing in general is kind of remarkable and unusual. And like each team, there's some, there's some one or a number of things happening where I'm like, whoa, wait a minute. Like it changes the way I think, and I think cuts through like a surgeon's knife.

21:22Some of the off season mumbo jumbo that we got caught up in some of the hype. It's funny because one of us actually is the math teacher who made math cool. Mike Tenier was a high school math teacher before he became a full time NFL writer. So yeah, we pride ourselves on the writing if it was just a book full of tables of numbers that would be really boring. Like you have to talk about them and you have to talk about where they're gonna continue this year and where they're not gonna continue this year and where you think projections are right, where you think that the numbers are wrong and our projections are off because this or that, this coach does this thing, et cetera, et cetera. So we pride ourselves on having good writing to go with all of the advanced stats. And that's our background too, obviously Aaron. We came up as writers. So yeah, you put all these things together. It's just great. But enough of the, don't say it. I'm not gonna say glazing. It's a gross term. It shouldn't be in the lexicon. No. But enough of the compliments. Let's get into the football, Aaron.

22:24I know that's why you're here. And let's start speaking of Mike Teneer because we give credit to the writers of the All in the NAC. Our little hook for this, Aaron, because we enjoy the writing so much is just a little passage from each of the teams we're gonna talk about. And I'll start with the Dallas Cowboys. And Mr. Teneer wrote, the team culture defined and fostered by Jerry Jones's sundowning Riverboat gambler persona and grubby hands-on approach to football operations. Turns company men like Michael Parsons into malcontents and gives the malcontents the keys to the liquor cabinet. Remember the liquor cabinet in high school or college? And then it's like, yes, I do. All right, how much of the vocated we drink? How much water do we have to pour into it to make it appear as if nothing had been taken? Don't do that kids if you're listening. It's a great way to dig into the Cowboys though, Aaron, because yes, so much of the dialogue around this team after the Parsons trade was, oh my God, what a disaster by the,

23:24by Jerra Jones who played his hand poorly and was nice and cranky and boomerish about having to pay his stars and then they have one of the worst defenses of all time last season, statistically by DVOA. And now the narrative is after an active free agency trade draft class. Well, wait a second, Jerra was right. It looks like the Cowboys actually made the right move not to give all that salary allocation to Parsons, but I think where we come down here is we still don't know, Aaron, like whether that trade was good or not and getting too excited on either way is probably missing the bigger overall point that this feels like at the end of the day, the same top heavy Cowboys team that will finish kind of exactly where you think, despite a lot of offseason and summer optimism around them. Yeah, I know there's a lot of excitement about, like especially Caleb Downes being a really good player and transformative for that defense. And we write every year about defenses less predictable than offense, so you never know,

24:25but it seems like they are stuck again with a team that's all offense, no defense. Like yes, Caleb Downes can make things better and they have Malachi Lawrence, I think is his name, the rookie from UCF and they've got, as a rock who is a year older and they picked up for Sean Gary, you can put something together with those edge rushers, it's not gonna be Mike Parsons. It's just not like there is an element where we always talk about value and trades, but there's an element where there are a handful of players that you just can't replace, no matter how much trade value you get for them. And Mike Parsons is one of those guys. Yeah, another line that Mike wrote, no one would trade action comics number one, that's the first Superman, for even a warehouse full of comic books. And yes, it is a self-harm reduction, how they've handled this is another term you use in the Almanac. And yes, like you could, and you could look at the defenses, it's a lot better, it's gotta be better,

25:26but it literally couldn't be worse. I think the interesting thing that I took out of this also, this passage in the Almanac was the idea that the Cowboys offense, which we think is safe, maybe not and a little bit of a dig into the data shows that they were going on trending downward. So even if getting back to the point, Aaron, that like things might change, but there's still a late period, Jared Cowboys team and things end up in the same place every year, the defense will probably be better, but the offense coming down is gonna put him right back in nine and eight, though. There is this talk for the Cowboys of, we have a top five offense, we have a top five offense. They were eighth last year by DVOA, and at the peak, top five, you are counting on the offensive line, not having problems. And George Pickens not losing his mind in the middle. I mean, you know, this is not a statistical thing, but like let's talk about George Pickens and the likelihood that he stays consistent

26:27and constant over 17 games. It doesn't seem like a strong likelihood. Yeah, man, I think Mike Teneer closed the article perfectly with the line. There's no reason to think 2026 will be all that different, which I think is sort of what we're feeling here. I wanted to ask you, I thought that the Bengals article, it kind of hit me exactly about how I feel about a team, and I think if you just believe in Joe Burrow, you could project them to the skies. If you look at the Bengals historically, you got questions. They go out in the off season, you trade for Dexter Lawrence, huge trade. Boy, I'm off a Jonathan Allen, you draft Cash's Howell. They kept all their wider sewers. They've sort of done everything that you could ask, Joe Burrow's wish casting to fill it. I mean, they've really done it. And like, you know, this was an off season where you've got Joe Burrow roaming around, the Met Gala and the Moo Moo, with a stylist, and it was mentioned in the article by Robert Ron Trappett, they did a great job sort of talking of the fact that this quarterback who we love has gotten everything.

27:27And I love what he wrote here. Perhaps the most stunning development in a radical off season is that now, instead of an autumn spent scrutinizing every facial expression incomplete pass and post-defeat press conference for clues regarding Burrow's future in Cincinnati, Bengal's nation will instead fold its arms and say, okay, Joe, now it's on you. Let's see what you got, article closed. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, it's funny to talk about these two teams right next to each other because everybody has talked about the very similar in being offense heavy. And the defense, they did try to fix it. They brought in a lot of guys. And as much as they improved in the second half of last year, we talk about it. They improved in the second half on defense more than any defense since the 2014 Rams. But there's no evidence that improving in the second half of the year actually tends to roll over to the next year. It's weird, by common sense, you would think that if you improve in the second half,

28:27you'll be even better the next year, but it just generally doesn't always happen that way. And so yeah, it's gonna be on Burrow again. It's gonna be on Burrow, Chase, and Higgins. You know, because people aren't that excited about the third-wide receiver, Yoshenvosh, and they're not that excited about the tight ends. If you even wanna call Gisicchi a tight end, and Chase Brown is good, but it's really gonna be on Burrow, man, to make this team make the playoffs. The good news is they do have an easy schedule, although every team in their division, they have the easiest projected schedule in the league, but every team in their division has an easy schedule because they get the NFC South and they all get to play Cleveland. Yeah, and also with the projected schedule stuff kinda drives me crazy because similarly, you could look at the data and say, oh, it's an easier schedule, but you never really know, right, Aaron? Like that. What's your thoughts on that? It's more dependable than you think it is, but not as dependable as you wish it was. Okay, that's well said. So the overall idea though,

29:28from your team's studies of Cincinnati's, that they have set up Burrow enough for if he stays healthy and thrives that they can be a true AFC contender, have they done enough or was it let's think of it? I think because of the schedule, they can be in the mix, but it would take a big step forward by that defense, and a full step forward over the whole year for them to be a true like, once we get to the playoffs, that we're not just talking about them, the way we talk about whoever won the NFC South. Do you, we at our Hot Buts edition yesterday, I'm talking about coaches that sort of sit. I was gonna say please clarify to Aaron, what is that? Yes, that's fair. It's not, it is football related just to be clear, but it's coaches on sitting on that hot seat, and you know, the Bengals coach, I mean, how do you feel? Do you factor that in? Do you factor in trust in the coaching staff? What you've seen? Like, I mean, it feels to me like a good, the Bengals are always sort of satisfied with a good, but not great head coaching situation in staff.

30:30Like do you feel trust or lack of trust in that situation? I don't, I mean, we don't factor that into our projections. It is odd to talk about the NFC North, and all the long time coaches, and then a guy who won the coach of the year twice, and the one who stayed was Zach Taylor, right? That's kind of, like I absolutely agree, that there is a possibility that you come in at the end of this year, and you go, the same way kind of Buffalo did like, if we're gonna do the same thing every year, we gotta change something. That being said, I don't know if you look at what has ailed the Bengals and you go, well, that's Zach Taylor's fault. Like, I don't look at the Bengals and go, this is a team that always mismanages game situations, and he's the offensive guy, not the defensive guy, so it's not his side of the ball that has the problems. So yeah, there's field, there's feeling of stagnation, but I don't know if getting rid of him would help it, you know? Right. Let's stay in this division and talk about the Baltimore Ravens. Another very interesting pivot point

31:33for this organization, which has done it all, except when the big game, and even get to the big game in the Lamara era, and one thing that you guys write about in this, all the neck is how rare it is for a quarterback as decorated as Lamar Jackson, multiple MVP's before turning 30, very nearly a third, to in his prime get a new coach, right? Those guys, that's tens of staying power, that combination, but obviously John Harbott, after a long run moves on, and we see what Jesse Minter can do. The quote that I'll call out from Kale Clinton, Baltimore's championship window isn't quite closing yet, but the 2026 season will tell you which direction it's headed in, the legacy of Lamar Jackson, and the identity of Baltimore Ravens football could hang in the balance. Yeah, this feels very much so Aaron, like a cross road season for this organization.

32:34What do you think about the Ravens? I will admit that the Ravens have one of the more surprising projections in the book. It was a surprise to me because they were so good by our numbers in 2023 and 2024, but the projection system didn't come out with them rebounding as much as you... 9.8 wins, you have as the mean projection. They come out as average. They basically come out as an average team with an easy schedule, very similar to the Bengals, except the Bengals are all slanted in favor of offense, whereas the Ravens are average on both sides of the ball and the projection. Subjectively, I will admit, if you ask me which teams I think are gonna outperform their projections, I think the Ravens are going to. Some of it is we just don't know how good a head coach Jesse Minter is. There's always this assumption that if guys were really great coordinators, that they're gonna come in and be really good head coaches, and in particular, that they're gonna transform their side of the ball. But guess what? Most new head coaches throughout NFL history

33:36are guys who were really good coordinators in their previous stop, and they don't always turn around their side of the ball. I mean, Tony Dunshee being a good example when he went to Indianapolis, their defense did not get better. Like, whatever you think of Tony Dunshee, he's like overall management being a good head coach and he did eventually lead them to a Super Bowl. It's not like their defense immediately turned things around because Tony Dunshee was a defensive mind. So we think Jesse Minter is this great defensive mind, but we don't know the only sample we have is one team. We saw what he did with the chargers and what he did with the chargers was really impressive. But being a head coach is a different job and involves a lot of other skills. It does feel like these younger coordinators seem ready to be head coaches compared to decades ago where you'd wait till a much older age to even take on that kind of a task. So that's where some faith comes from, but I'm totally with you. I feel like people are looking at Jesse Minter and sort of ticketing the Ravens for a big next level.

34:38It's like, you mentioned in the encyclopedia that between 2019 and 2025, Almanac. Almanac, 16 different Ravens players have received first or second team all pro honors more than any other team in the league. And it's, and they've been ticketed for a top 10 finish for, you know, in odds every year since the Super Bowl and that they've not gotten back since that last Super Bowl. And it's like, there's this aura of disappointment. And I look at like, oh no, it all comes down to Lamar Jackson. You've got a 30 year old Declan Doyle taking over as play collar and he's never called plays. I mean, anyone that you hear about who kind of reports back on that first couple of months or years being a play collar, it's like things can go south because you've never been in that situation. So I just like, I have a tinge of suspicion around the idea that this is the year that Lamar Jackson finally does what we've all been waiting for our entire lives. And just to add to that, on the Lamar side of things, the data, the raw numbers, the pop the hood stuff, like, is he still a peak quarterback

35:40or one of the best quarterbacks in the league? Very likely, yes. But have we already seen the best of Lamar Jackson? It's fair to wonder as the dual threat and like the idea that if the defense, which by the way, the defense that Mentor's taking over, they finished 29th in pressure rate, 31st in sack rate, 31st in get off time, you understand why Mason Crosby was targeted before they pulled out of that deal. Like that defense is probably going to be better under Mentor. But similar to the Cowboys conversation, Lamar and the offense has to come up and really level up as well to make this team a super bowl contender. Do you think he has that gear in him to be a God of all men on the field? I don't think that Lamar has another gear because my God, he was already so good in 2024 and in 2019. His numbers were so spectacular that it's very difficult to see him having another season at that level. Can he be a top five quarterback in the league?

36:41Statistically, yeah. But as good as he was in 2024, that's going to be really hard. There is a table in the Bills chapter that talks about the longer, the best teams over a five year period that didn't make the Super Bowl. Yes. And the Ravens in the Bills of recent years appear on the multiple times. It's the Patrick Behoem's effect. Patrick Behoem's kept making the Super Bowl and these Bills and Ravens teams that were so good in the regular season just fell short because of game of inches, things like Mark Andrews dropping a two point conversion and whatever. So the Ravens have been spectacular in the past. It's hard to imagine that Jackson can reach that level again, but he can be really good and Mintre can make the defense really good, especially with Mattabouique back from the neck injury, but will he, you can't count on it. How do you feel? Because maybe again, there's not like this doesn't factor into the analytics,

37:42but you talk about the Bills and Ravens. And it's two of these like almost getting there types of teams, there's a lot of pressure on them. And they both kind of moved on from the system, the head coaching system that they had with Sean McDermott. Let's move on. Let's go to Joe Brady to freshen things up. Jesse Mintre after people, you know, you heard whispers that people were tiring of the John Harbour message after so many years. Like Jesse Mintre knew blood. Like does that, do you feel like that is the kind of thing that's typically positive for a two loaded teams with premier quarterbacks or is it a risk? I think it's a risk, but it's not like a huge risk. There is a good chance that the Bills or Ravens, and by our numbers, it would actually be more likely the Bills, make it this year, not because of Joe Brady being a better coach, just because just the things fall their way. I always talk about things that have never happened, don't happen until the year they do. A really good example is the ramps of the 70s.

38:44The ramps of the 70s were fantastic in the regular season every year from 73 to 78. Never made the Super Bowl. 79, they were only nine and seven, they get to the playoffs, and they somehow make it to the Super Bowl, finally. Like weird, like the Bills are gonna be in it. And the Ravens are honestly, despite our projection being lower than expected, the Ravens are going to be in it too. So once you make the tournament, like Bill Parcell said, anything happened, you just gotta make the tournament, and then you gotta win when you get there. I just, since she brought it up, was this the most surprising projection in the whole Almanac this year? Was there another team that you were like, wow, that's odd. I think the people will mostly be surprised at how high we have Houston's offense, and the whole Arizona thing I've talked about on a lot of shows I've been on. The whole Arizona is not the worst team in the league thing. Because of the Ravens are projected, because of their schedule, they're still projected

39:44to be the number one team in their division. I don't think that projection leaps out at you quite as much. Gotcha. Well, quick question on the Cardinals, is that because you see, there is a lot of skill position, talent there, there's something to work with. Or is it just because the dolphins exist? No, no, it's because the Cardinals, they were like 23rd in DVOA last year. They were the number one injured team by our adjusted games Lost metric. Like, yeah, the schedule is the hardest in the league, and that division is hell, but they are not the worst team in the league. The fact that most books, I think, still have their number of three and a half wins is like, absurdly, absurdly low. It wouldn't shock me if they beat San Francisco one of the two times, and I think they can easily win four games in the rest of their schedule, even if they lose to the Rams and C.OX toys. Wow, I hope Jason Zomelot's listening to this episode. Yeah, I think getting Jonathan Ganon out of the building is for me, I don't know anything about Michael Flore

40:45as a head coach, but, you know what? Again, can't be worse. All right, stay right there. We'll continue on with Aaron Schatz. Heeey. You know, Mark, I used to rely on endless cups of coffee and regular pouches just to survive my daily routine, but the jittery anxiety afternoon crashes and terrible sleep scores were really getting to me. That's why I started using ultra pouches about a month ago, and honestly, they've been a total game changer for my focus and energy levels. These are completely nicotine-free pouches with zero nicotine and zero caffeine. That's right, ultra actually partnered with leading neuroscientists to combine clinically-backed new tropics and adaptogens like Infinity Px, L-theanine, and vitamin B12. Instead of spike and crash stimulants, they give me a smooth, steady flow state focus and clean energy that lasts for hours without making me feel on edge. I keep a can right at my desk for work and another in my gym bag for an extra push before workouts. Oh, baby, a classic peek into the old Sestog Gymbag.

41:47Anyway, plus, the watermelon flavor tastes just like sweet sour patch candy. Ultra is the ultimate guilt-free pouch, delivering instant focus and mental clarity without nicotine or caffeine. New customers can use the code HEAD to get 15% off at takeultra.com. That's takeultra.com for 15% off with code HEAD. After you purchase, they'll ask you where you heard about them. Please support our show and tell them HEAD the call, send you. Drink up, baby. Fantasy football happy hour is here to get you wins and have some laughs. Matthew Berry here and my podcast, Fantasy Football Happy Hour, has the sleepers bust and start-sit advice you need to win your league. We're diving into the tape, we're crunching the numbers to bring you sleepers, bust weekly start-sit advice, whether you're defending a title or desperately avoiding last place, I've got you covered every single weekday. The bar is open. It's Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry, wherever you get your podcasts. All right, we're back. Keep us going, Sessie.

42:48All right, I want to go to Detroit. I, you guys seem high on the Lions. You have meant fourth overall with 10.6 wins. Dan Pazuda, I love how we opened this chapter because it really, again, it kind of mirrors how I feel about the Lions in a way that I couldn't have said it. That their years, their seasons have gotten a little bit repetitive. And he opened, he said, Case in Point, it is my duty as the writer of this chapter to tell you that last year's Lions team was better than you remember. But that was also the lead to this chapter a year ago. He wants to say the same thing about the Lions. And it's like, they are in this place. I'm going to want to lay out for you just to explain where you're coming from with that because they aren't a strange place of almost rediscovery mid-mission while the window is still open. The Lions were third in DVOA last year. They were the best team by our ratings other than the Rams and Seahawks. Isn't that wild? They went nine eight. And they fell out of the playoffs on tiebreaker. And we had them number three.

43:48That defense has led the league in defense of injuries for two straight years. And has been a top 10 defense, both years. People are like, oh, Brian Branch is not going to start the season and Kirby Joseph, they barely had Kirby Joseph at all last year. And they only had brands for 12 games. And they still were a top 10 defense. Like they keep putting, you look at their personnel and you're like, there's no way this is a top 10 defense. But I, Shepard I think is the defensive coordinator. Like they keep putting these good defenses on the field. We know the offense is really good. There are questions about the offensive line. And we know that there is not a quarterback in the league that it is more important to keep clean than Jared Goff like the difference between him with pressure and without pressure is enormous and consistent from year to year. But you know, if the off it, they can solve the interior offensive line. We know they have the weapons. We know they call it good offense.

44:50We're really, I think people don't understand the lions are absolutely still in their super bowl with. Hmm. You know, the thing that happened to him, though, it's like you, you understand when the Eagles went a super bowl in both coordinators hit the road and you got to deal with that and you lose players all over the place. Like it's already happening to the lions. Do you, is there, it seems like last year was a year of like trying to figure out how to replace Ben Johnson even Aaron Glenn to some degree. And it's like that's, that stuff matters. Like I feel like the absence of Ben Johnson inside his own division like is a problem for the lions. Like I don't mean to ask him if you factor that kind of thing in because I guess you don't, but like it, it just seems like they have to keep re, they're already in rebuild mode staff wise in the middle of this entire scenario. Refactor in when you have a new coordinator and new systems absolutely all other things being equal. You tend to take a step back with a new coordinator and a new system. Now all of the things aren't equal because usually teams with a new coordinator are bad and the power of regression

45:50to the mean is stronger. But yeah, we took that into account last year, but this is the second year under Shepherd on defense at least offense is a bit of a different situation. But in our projection, our projection for the lions offense is to take a step back and part of the reason it is to take a step back is because it's a new offensive coordinator again. Yeah, I mean, okay, that makes sense to me. But there were at least externally and Dan Campbell taking over play calling spoke to it, right? Like you always want to be the old saying goes, you don't want to be the guy who replaces the guy, that guy being Ben Johnson, you want to be the guy who replaced that guy. So I feel like petting's in a good situation here and in general, just the optics around the organization, maybe it's not a bad thing, maybe it's a great thing that people are a little cooler on the lions when the reality of the situation is this teams every bit as capable of finally making that Super Bowl run.

46:50That's kind of how the summer narratives played out, right? Aaron, around Detroit that you talk about the top Super Bowl contenders in the NFC and you're gonna put a lot of focus on two teams specifically in the NFC West and the idea of the Chicago Bears and all that. But maybe the lions are exactly where they want to be right now, lying in the weeds a little bit or what would it be for a lion just in some tall breasts? Well, they could be in weeds or one of those things, you know what I mean? Yeah, I think we are absolutely right to focus on the Rams and Seahawks because they were so much better than every other team last year, plus everything the Rams did in the off season with their personnel. But I do think that the lions are being slept on a little bit as the third best team in the NFC. Hmm. I like that. Yeah. All right. Let's see who I want to talk about the chiefs. The chiefs are another major mystery point and I kind of get the vibe reading the Almanac that you guys are kind of in that territory also.

47:52You have them as a mean projection of 8.9 wins. Obviously that falls outside of where you would put the true Super Bowl contenders, Rivers McCown in his right up, wrote there are certainly a lot of reasons to expect the chiefs to get back to the playoffs but the changes and adjustments that they're having to employ here, the whole quote, acting like a real football team rather than an invincible dreadnought closed quote, thing don't make me feel inevitable from where we sit this off season. While I look up dreadnought, Aaron explained to me why people should be confused about where to place the chiefs in the landscape of the National Football League. I will say the simulation in the book gave them a small chance of not having the homes in the first four weeks. So with him very likely now playing, it would be a little bit higher, but not a lot higher because they do come out as like 10th in the league. But last year when the homes got hurt,

48:52they were eighth in DVOA. The one score game thing is crazy. They were 11 and 0 in one score days two years ago, one in nine last year. Was that unprecedented, Aaron? Like, I don't think there's ever been a team that's reversed. Reverse to that extent. I haven't checked exactly, but I don't remember a team. Annic, totally, that's ever reversed to that. I just figured you literally know everything, Aaron. So that's why I present questions that puts you in a difficult position. Unfortunately, I don't have the photographic memory. So I have to look up things sometimes, but I don't remember certainly a team coming across a team in my research and going, oh my God, that's like the chiefs last year, right? But they're still really good. They lost talent on defense, but they added talent on defense, right? A first round cornerbacks tend to play well as rookies. Derek Klasson wrote something about it for us back when we were still doing football outsiders, about that a lot of these first round cornerbacks, they kind of live up to expectations as rookies

49:53as much as any cornerback is predictable. So we like to lay, no Williams is talented. Like there's some good stuff on defense, but no one is still a good defensive coordinator. Offense, obviously, there's questions about the receivers, but here's a little secret. Travis Kelsey was good last year. No, stop it. He was. He rebounded after not being good the year before. He was actually one of the better tight ends in the league. He still can get open in the short area. Like he doesn't like stretch the field like he used to or whatever, but he still gets open with his intelligence and get finds the holes and zones and everything. So it's not like they're lacking at that spot. And and my home. So what about the explosiveness, Aaron? Like, you know, because for sure, you're right coming off this injury. Right. So it's been depending on Xavier worthy being healthy. The idea is that Xavier worthy was somewhat hurt last year and I don't know how true that is. I'd have a question about how you rank certain things because you have the chiefs.

50:53And I think this is very fair. 16th in win, win projection at 8.9 tied with the Jaguars, which is a little surprising. That's a whole different conversation. But the chiefs 16th in with 8.9, but six overall and DVOA, I see a disparity there. A little bit of a surprise that the simulation had them so low. And a little bit of that is the first four games and saying that they might be just confused the first four games. But yeah, they would still be like 13th in wins without that. So yeah, the schedule is only 13th. But because of who they play, like the particular, you know, really good teams and, you know, Denver and whoever else, it just had them lower. It's here's the problem with the AFC, the main problem with the AFC. There's too many teams that are good. Mm-hmm. Right. I think there's 10 good teams in the AFC. And there's only seven playoff spots. So all these teams were like, yeah, that's a playoff contender. That's a playoff contender. Well, three of those teams are going to miss the playoffs. And that's if the other six, nobody has a surprise, see.

51:56The big question about my homes, because when you guys published this to where we are now, it does appear that Patrick Holmes will be ready for week one. But you still have to factor in. Obviously he's a huge upgrade, any version of my homes on the field over Justin Fields, who as a Jetspan, I just went through hell watching him for half a season. But is it going to take time for my homes to round into my homes, Ian, form? Or does that not even happen this year? Here's an example, 2010 Tom Brady off his AFC. You just, you don't know, there's, they're just a total mystery. And another mystery for me was a dreadnought. A dreadnought is a powerful type of early 20th century battleship. So that's if that helps you out there as the audience, it helped me. Mark one more team before we say goodbye to Mr. Shots. I found Professor Shots, I call him. Professor, I found this very interesting, because if there's a team that sort of we divert to,

52:57we're just assuming that they're going to take the next step and be sort of a superpower, it's the Chicago Bears. And for obvious reasons with Ben Johnson on the offense, but we're focused on the offense. And you guys adequately placed them where they should be, but you have them 30 seconds in DVOA on defense. And I love the write up by Brian Knowles, who did a lot of good work in this book. He basically came up with this number that Chicago really punched above their weight last season, okay? 18.3% of Chicago's defensive drives ended in a turnover. That's not just a huge gap over the Jaguars in second place, but the highest turnover rate of the 2020s so far. And you talked about the fact that it set off alarm bells inside your building if you're all working in the same building. I doubt that, but what was the, what, what your response to all that? Yeah, well, there's an old warehouse in Albuquerque. That's the whole team. Yeah. Lots of red flags, regression red flags, the turnover's thing for the Bears. It's huge regression red flag.

53:57They were much better on third downs than first and second down on defense. Huge regression red flag. And then the talent that they lost, there was more talent out than there was talent in. And then one of the talents in got hurt, right? Because Kobe Bryant were depending heavily on Kobe Bryant. There's one of the new safeties and he got hurt. So you're talking about like all the regression alarm bells, plus they lost talent that defense just, I mean, there is this feeling of like, oh, they'll have a full season of Jalen Johnson. Jalen Johnson is very good, but it's not a great pass rush. There's questions about safeties. They're depending a lot on a rookie safety. There's questions about the other corners besides Jalen Johnson. And all the regression alarms bells go off statistically. You did that. Brian knows also noticed, and I thought this was like, you know, kind of a look at how you guys think that you're more confident in the offensive projection than what is a very bleak defensive projection that that maybe, maybe we'll find out that that's not where they rest.

54:59But I thought there was an alarming situation for you. I don't think Bears fans and people that are observing the Bears are even thinking about the defense that much. Yeah. And we have their offense projected number two. We do think, take a step forward. We don't think DJ Moore is going to be that big a loss given how he played for the Bears. He's probably seems like a better addition for the bills than he is a loss for the Bears. So we like their offense. It's not that. It's all about the defense. Yeah. A Chicago recovered 10 of the 14 fumbles. They forced on defense 71% second highest rate in the league. Maybe there's some regression there. And then on the Ben Johnson side of things, is there, is there reason to think that you have a guy that is the next genius in this offense continues to level up? Or is there an idea that they'll regress now that they're not as a shiny new toy they were last year? No, I mean, I think subjective. It's not in the projection system. But subjectively, oh, yeah, Ben Johnson is very good offensive coordinator. And we've now seen him do it in two places.

56:02We've seen what he did with Detroit and what he did with the Bears last year. And I absolutely think there is reason to believe that the projection system is right. And the offense will take a step forward. I will say the thing that our projections have the hardest time with is offensive line changes. And there are questions because of the retirement of dominant and then the Oz and Truppillo injury. So we may be a little off on the projection because we're not taking into account enough the offensive line issues. But Ben Johnson is a great coach. He's a great coach. Can I ask a quick question? Like are these projections when you talk about the method on are we closer? Are we more like pen and paper, a bunch of people with pen and yellow pads? Or are we closer to like super computer setup for how you come out with these? Don't know closer to super computer setup, but it's not. It's just a laptop. OK, I like that. I like that. Yeah, if the Bears end up being a team that just did a bunch of shootouts, I think that will be cool for football fans and for fantasy owners.

57:08Yes. But I think Bears fans have leveled up their expectations now that they want more than that, which is pretty crazy for a fan base that has never seen a 4,000 year. Third passer love Caleb in fantasy. And this is the year they get the 4,000 yard passer because he's going to need to make up for the defense. I mean, a declarative statement in this chapter. The first the lead of it. Caleb Williams will throw for 4,000 yards in 2026. We don't know anything else, but if that man stays in the field, that bit of organizational history will come into focus. Aaron Schatz, you've said it all, where could people find your great musings and studies on professional football? All this stuff, F T N fantasy dot com slash Almanac. We just slash the price as we get closer to the regular season starting. So it is now just 29, 99 for the PDF version of the book. And there is a sample chapter available. So you can read about Indianapolis and get an idea of what the whole book is like.

58:08And if you want the physical copy, you want F T N football Almanac 2026 on Amazon. Make sure you buy the 2026 one with Jackson Smith, Nijigba on the cover. There you go. Aaron, thank you very much. Thanks for having me. Alright, Hey, Sessie. Love shots, Professor shots. I think it's part of my DNA and like how you. Your personality, my personality is when there is a guy that you can't make laugh. It becomes a personal goal of mine to make that guy laugh. Like there's a guy I play golf with a little like for some that we play with. Every once in a while, not a guy that ever laughs. And that's the only thing I care about for those 18 holes. Right. That is my goal the next time shots is on either in the near future or next year's version.

59:09Can the old Zuser make Aaron shots laugh so far? No good, but the effort continues. Yeah, you whiffed so far. I mean, I have a similar relationship with our audience. I would say this that I think it's a noble goal. I think you've got to come up with some. You got to really study the personality. You got to go behind the scenes, maybe watch some other interviews and like what's even created a smile to possibly creep on the face? I will say mix it makes a report like pop the hood analytics on making Aaron shots laugh. I think so. I think so. I kind of like that. Nice move there with the self-effacing humor like nobody thinks I'm funny with in this audience. It's like comments. Oh, marks the funniest guy marks the best. We love Mark. Get well soon. Main character syndrome raging. All right. I feel like after we did that segment, I feel one step closer to complete readiness for the season to come. All right. Coming up tomorrow, one more show this week.

1:00:10It is the return of the power rankings where we will break down where every team stands. I feel like I couldn't have done this exercise, Sessie, before we spoke with Mr. Schatz. Now after the professor conversation, I'm ready. Well, we're we're going to face other individuals. You've got the Justin's of the world. You got the Conner's like this gave us all Justin is listening theoretically. So but it gave us a leg up over Connor, although Connor, his lever poll is just to do something from left field that makes you wonder what's in the bloodstream. So he's a bit of a wild card on the power rankings. I think we all are in different respects. Thank you to everybody for following along and enjoying this program. Until next time, do what you must. Heat the call.