NFL Trends with Evan Abrams

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2:01network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz. Your host back at it with the first lady of the pod, Kendra Middleton, and Mr. Optimus primer himself for workshopping that one. Evan Abrams is on with us today. We're getting trendy with Evan Abrams ahead of the 2026 NFL season. Kendra, we start in your world, which is in a different part of the world. Where have your Irish travels taken you in the last 48 hours? I went to see ASAP Rocky and I ate. Do you guys know what a cuddle is? Never heard of it. It's like a potato leak soup. I had one of those Anthony Bourdain's favorite restaurant over here. Guess how much just because Anthony Bourdain liked that place. A bowl of soup was. I was going to guess exactly $18. So I will, I'm going to tack on a little bit too. Let's go 2250. $17 for a bowl of broth, fellas.

3:03I would have lost. I would have lost prices. Right. But it's fair. I was close. Crazy. Crazy. It was good. Don't get me wrong. But like $17. I could have bought all the ingredients to make. How was it though? Like after you've eaten it? Good, bad. It was good. But not $17. Good. I think Anthony Bourdain would be rolling over in his grave if he knew that this place he liked was upcharging the people just because he went there. No soup for you. No soup for me. What's the what's the biggest difference culinary wise between what you see regularly, regularly on a menu in Ireland versus what you see here? My guess is that it's cheese because we put cheese on everything. Yeah, definitely cheese because I was talking to the person I went to get soup with today saying that if this were America, there would be cheese on this soup. Definitely cheese. And I would say unless you're going somewhere really nice seasoning and I can taste there clearly are no hormones in their chickens. I feel like it's nice though that we've progressed in America where we're offering more types of

4:05cheese. So it's not just like we started with like here, just take the cheese and now there's options at least. Yeah, I went to Chick-fil-A because there's one in Belfast and they only have one type of cheese that they offer for your sandwiches there. That's crazy. The goat cheese explosion I think has really helped our variety. Plus I shout out to Pepper Jacks. So some quarterback news. Kurt Cousins officially named the starter for the Raiders. No surprise there. None. With transition. Yeah, very soon. Speaking of cheesy. Well, there's holes in that defense. So it's fun. Yes, Swiss cheese Raiders. Mendoza is going to be the first starting quarter rack drafted. Number one overall to not start since starting week one since I stopped myself here because I want to see if our trends guy knows this is a little stop on the dime trivia for you, Evan. Who's the last quarter rack drafted? Number one overall to not start in week one. I don't actually have a guess.

5:07I don't think I know the answer to this because I'm going back and I feel like each one has started. I don't think it's recent. Tell me. I have a guess within the last 10 years. Baker may feel Baker. I would not have pulled that out of my ass. No, I wouldn't guess Baker. I wouldn't have gotten back that far. So I went back and looked at the 2018 schedule for the Browns. Mayfield came in three weeks into the season, but it's not because of a coaching decision. It's because Tyrod Taylor got hurt and then they gave mayfield played well and then they gave him the job thereafter. So my question for the panel here is going to be with that as the benchmark for the last time this has happened may field was was playing and starting by week four. Would you take the over or the under on Mendoza as the starting quarterback for the Raiders using that week four line? Evan. I'll look at your I was in like Kendra start. I actually. So there's a line on 12 and a half

6:10passing touchdowns from endosa, which I think is an interesting line depending on when you think he's going to enter the lineup. And because there's the late buy, it makes it a little bit difficult in terms of when you think I was thinking that jet scheme might be an interesting opportunity or at least like a week or two before the buy so that you can get like a little bit of work and then get an extra week to go over it prep and get ready for post buy. So maybe like a week 10 would be my guess. I don't think the Raiders are going to be good. So I don't think this is going to be like oh my god, we have to make like a decision here. And I also think there's a chance Kurt gets hurt. But aside from all those things, I guess that area. I'm going to take the over for two reasons. One, either they're going to be doing well enough for Kirk to be justified to continue to play. I don't think that that's the most likely option. But I think if they're bad, it's probably going to be about week six that they start to hear from the fans. I like that. I like the over 12 and a half passing touchdowns. I think it's a good bet. I think we see Mendoza. I don't think he's looked

7:14good at all. Like he's got some serious happy feet going on, which doesn't bode well. But I think he just needs reps. That was going to be my question. Do we think that he's actually going to be good because I initially obviously have said on the show, I thought that he was going to be okay. But after watching some of the other guys in this class in the preseason, I'm starting to think that he might be on the lower end of it. I mean, he's learning from greats. Like he's got a lot of people in that building to help him out. He just hasn't looked like I said, the one thing I've taken away from anything I've watched of him in the preseason has just been a little bit quick happy feet. And listen, the line's supposed to be better there. I don't remember if he played with the first line when he was out there. There's a chance he didn't, which obviously has an impact. But I don't know. Not only is he not played with the first line, I believe I don't believe we've seen Lindervaum out there yet. Yeah. Rock Bowers didn't play either. So the target stick. You're going to have happy feet when you're you're not even comfortable with the guys you're throwing the ball to. And it's not elite talent. And while you were getting some backups with the Houston Texans and that

8:15game that was on prime time, it's still Houston is a they're deep defensively. I wouldn't take too much of it. I like the I'm to me. I look for how does the ball look coming out of your hand. And I think for Nando Mendoza's got that there's that pop. And and that's where if they if it's a coaching decision and not because cousins ruptured another kill is it's going to be because there are plays to be made down the field that cousins just isn't making. And that'll be the reason that we end up seeing for Nando Mendoza. The other bit of quarterback news was that CJ Stroud was offered a deal where he was going to be paid $50 million a year. I have no idea what the length of the contract offered was Baker Mayfield was offered 50 million a year. It was only for two years. That's the reason why he didn't want it. So you see the sticker shock of this guy's turning down 50 million a year. Well, if he's not offered a long term deal, then in the world of quarterbacks, that's not a good offer from the Houston Texans, but he's prepared to play without a deal this season. Kendra's he overvaluing himself. Yeah, absolutely. This is going to turn into like a Jimmy Garoppolo

9:19situation. I think I just don't know who he thinks he is. You were almost benched for a backup in a playoff game. And you think the year deserving of this. It has to be a proof of year for him. And honestly, I hate the Houston Texans for obvious reasons, but I'm going to say and you can clip this if you want good for the frickin Houston Texans for telling him to sit down and shut up. Would you pay the man? I mean, I feel like this is a win win for the Houston Texans. They get to say, Hey, look, we offered you money, but they don't actually have to pay him. And he's like right on the cusp of somebody you'd want to give a big contract to Mills. Yeah. I also think it's probably a show. It was on the shorter side in terms of you as the reason he, it's a reason he doesn't take it. This is, you know, Houston's going to be good. There is no way that defense allows them to be, you know, on the bottom side of the league. So I think it's up to stride to just, I'm not going to use the word game manager, but just do your job and don't put the defense in a situation where they can blow the game because they won't. So that's what we saw on the playoffs.

10:21He just needs to be level headed and Houston's going to be good and he's going to get his money. That sounded a lot like game manager, but it was very nice. That was a huge game manager. Yeah. I'm not going to say game manager. I'm just going to love. He described a game manager. Well, it is. I mean, it's true because like, there's no reason for him to go and try to do too much because he's going to throw some picks. He's going to make some bad mistakes. And it's just not what's needed when you have that defense. So we'll see what happens. And they should be able to run the ball better this year with David Montgomery. We are about to dip into the trends that will shape your betting life over the next five months. But first a word about the app where it all goes down draft Kings. The favorites podcast has teamed up with draft Kings. And we've got some great news. The draft King sports app is now available in all 50 states bringing the excitement straight to your fingertips wherever you are from Florida to Texas to California. You'll never miss a beat. Follow every moment, every matchup and every highlights. Sweat all the games you love in a seamless

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12:23you reach higher. Skypop Protein Soda, reach for the sky. Pick up your Skypop Protein Soda variety pack today at your local Costco. You know the feeling. You make a pick in your fantasy draft in the entire room groans because they wanted that player. Or you grab a small school rookie off waivers and you start him right before he goes off in prime time. There's no better feeling than crushing your fantasy football league. I'm JJ Zacharyson, host of the late round fantasy football podcast. Before your draft are players to target and players to avoid episodes tell you exactly who to circle and who to cross off. We've got data driven analysis, historical trends and the strategies that separate winners from the rest. And your dominance doesn't stop with the draft. All season long we have our 15 transactions, 10 trends, sleepers and the mail back data driven quick hitting episodes to help bring home that league trophy. Listen to the late round fantasy football podcast on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcast or wherever

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14:27Hi it's Alec Baldwin this season on my podcast here's the thing I'm speaking with more artists, policymakers and performers like actor Stephen Root. I think for me to be any good or for any character actor be any good you got to put enough of yourself and your empathy for people in it. I'm a people watcher. You see that guy going down the drain go yeah I can use that. Open igloo co-founder Alia Muhammad. I love staying on top of what is going on in our city, what is going on in city politics, what is on renter's minds and taking all of that knowledge to build a platform that hopefully is going to make New York City better in the long run. Actress and singer Melissa Erica. Partnership took on a whole other meaning when I started making my own work. It's like you with a great actress or actor it was best to come out of your trailer full of life and just face another person who's full of life and don't talk. Listen to here's the thing on the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcasts.

15:31I am a geek for Evan Averham's Trends every week throughout the year. I was guzzling these years before I worked with action. I wasn't going to say it. But we do have Kendra on the show for a specific purpose and I said we wouldn't be doing the job of Kendra on the show if that didn't happen. So Giffa was a mix of a masterful introduction but because I don't think we should go through it. I don't think you should use the word masterful either. I think you should just probably move on. Masterfully guzzling Evan Abrams from Holland Crabits. Where was I? When did it all start for you Evan before I started guzzling your shit? Where did it all start for me? Well listen I was born in New York City. No I mean I've been in action for like I don't know eight years what is it to that nine years almost eight nine years.

16:32So I've been here a long time. I've done a lot of different things. We won a lot of different hats but I've been doing like this job specifically. I mean geez since I was like 19 or 20 but here for the last like I don't know seven years. But like how did you become how did you become the trends guy? When did that why did that why did that take hold? I always felt like so I always look at this is kind of his wager taming like there is no end all be all to you know you need to bet this and I think there's always like important caveats with all this stuff that we do. And also I think there's like an interesting line between what's happened in the past is predictive of the future. So I do think you know modeling and all sorts of different things have a better interaction probably with gambling. But I started doing this because I thought it was like really fun. I loved finding the stats and at the time pre-pastpa like nobody was doing these sports gambling research and stats

17:34for the gambling side. Like was still extremely taboo. So I started keeping databases. I started finding information. I started talking to like bookmakers. We're talking about people you know in Vegas like doing things by hand. Like there's lots of different companies and people and because I got really interested in really early. And since then I'm just obsessed like I find I love finding old spreads old information keeping databases and just tracking information in the sports and gambling space because I just feel like it hasn't been done correctly and isn't widely spread enough at this point. So yeah I think it's really cool that you that you even though this is your bread and butter that you still add the caveat of this isn't the be all end all. I think when I first started looking at this stuff I thought that it was the cake and I didn't realize until years later that it's the icing to the cake. You know you you still have to you have to come up with your own analysis whether you're modeling a number or using a market rating whatever it is there has to

18:39be a baseline there that doesn't involve trends. But when you see that you like a team and then oh by the way like the chargers will get into them in a moment double digit favorites have not performed well early on in the season. If you like the cardinals and then see that stat that's icing on the cake and I think that that's the way to consume it. That if you're you know in the guzzling world. Yeah. Hollandaise the Bernays it's it's like a little bit that that's how I kind of look at some of this stuff. What about the new stuff that's coming down the pipeline what do you have beyond what we have been taking in for the last couple of years on action. Sure so for me personally like I'll have my article it's going to come out before like probably Monday maybe over the weekend. But the only thing that's going to be different is it's going to be one link all season. So you won't have to like be searching for it and that link will have like a tool that will get updated with all my stats information. I'll have some other fun stuff in there and things I'll be like updating along throughout the year. And also I have a few of the things coming along me and Sean Kerner are going

19:41to do like a quarterback rankings piece that's going to have like every quarterback in the NFL. They're value to the spread versus their backup. It'll update on certain things. I'll have injuries in there. It'll be fun. And then me and Mr. Galant Jill and I will do a touchdown machine that I helped him build basically all the data last five seasons and all sorts of fun things for currently touchdowns. Previous touchdowns be able to do some research in it. Some of this stuff is pro. My piece is usual always free. I'll have some bet labs, some public betting stuff from action. All sorts of fun stuff in there. So definitely check it out. I'll post it on Twitter when I get a chance. I like that. I just can I just say if you are watching this as a podcast, please go back to me saying pause and look at Kravitz's face and how long it took him to realize what had happened because it was an embarrassingly long. This will be the podcast that is if you both were so cognizant of things. That's that's so it wouldn't be as it wouldn't be as entertaining.

20:46I still think of the the moment of the year for me last year was Raiders. I think they were playing the Broncos, but we had our parlay. I dipped into the office to finish up some prep as the four o'clock games were ending. And that's when Pete Carroll decided to kick a field goal down by 10. Oh my god. No time left, which made no sense. He's piece one super balls. He said so much success, but in the eyes of gamblers, he may not be known for anything more than just that play. Oh my god. And I had no idea. You guys told me that they covered the spread while we were alive. That one's still landing. We got an early one this year. The whole famer. Yeah. Appreciate that. I thank you guys for calling me out with my nonsense. Kendrick, they have a quarterback ranking. I'm thinking they're going to put Justin Herbert in the top 20. Just wrong. Well listen, I'll say this before we move on. The quarterback ranking stuff has so much to

21:48do with the backup. Anyone who does this stuff will tell you that the backup has a ton to do with how rated properly rated the starter would be if he got injured. So that just has a lot to do with it. Yeah. Yeah. I think I you can't just look at what the starter is worth. The problem is and what I'm curious to see what you guys come up with is that it's much harder to grade out and put an accurate number towards the backup. But yeah, that's why you guys are who you are. And we'll check that out when it pops up on the app. What about the Super Bowl winner Super Bowl loser? We have them taking each other on in the first week of the season. Patriots, Seahawks, are you a believer in the ideology that the winner has momentum, the loser has a hangover? What are the numbers say as it pertains to the first game that we're going to witness of the season between Seattle and New England? I mean, to me for that first game of the year, I believe it's

22:54only happened. I think it's the third time where you had the Super Bowl rematch in that first game. I'm not going to take much from that. I do believe that the winner of the Super Bowl has one like nine of the last ten. I believe in that first game. I think a lot of that is obviously they're at home in that situation. They're usually and the thing that's interesting, they're usually giving them a pretty good game in that first game, which I think is kind of intriguing. In this one, I think it's more about just looking at the two teams and doing like a handicap. I'm not sure there's a serious trend to be told here. The one thing I will say, the loser of the Super Bowl has struggled in that first game. I believe it is six and twenty against the spread since 2000. I think that is the number. There is that note. Me personally, when looking at these teams, from a handicap standpoint, I do kind of like New England in the spot, but to be fair, I like New England in the Super Bowl and I was wrong. There is that as well. That is the number behind that first game,

23:59but again, usually not facing the team you just faced in the Super Bowl. There is at least from a personal perspective, usually more of a hangover type effect, I think, on the team. I don't know if I'm personally feeling that with New England this year, but maybe there's also other things going on in Foxboro kind of overshadowing them. Do you know if there's any trends with the total for this first game back between Super Bowl champions and the person that they played in the Super Bowl, just because it feels like for me, first games that first week always can get a little bit wonky. I haven't looked specifically at that first game. The only thing I found when digging into the winners and losers of the Super Bowl kind of early in the season, found it interesting that in the first three games, the loser of the Super Bowl is like really trending under. I believe since about 1978 where I have totals data, it's like 83 and 58, which is high fifties in terms of percentage. So maybe that's a bit of a lack of offense from a losing Super Bowl team, but in terms

25:00of totals in general, just from that game, it's a little noisy. This might be a little bit off topic, but I was talking about this. I don't know if it was our last episode of the episode before, when we were talking about the chiefs. Do you think that there is something to be said about teams who do play really deep into the playoffs continuously and them having a drop off? Yeah, I believe I've actually looked this up previously. And the more games you play in the playoffs have a rolling year. So you talk about five years, four years, three years, entering that specific season prior. You end up not covering as much throughout the season. So I think there's like a season long effect. I think there's, but also the thing that makes it a little bit difficult with that is that the lines usually are inflated because those teams are usually well respected in the market. So I think you're balancing which of those things are kind of impacting it. But I do believe there is that like downturn for teams that have had

26:06to play extra games. Yeah, I'm trying to think I just said this in our chat, but I'm trying to think of maybe if there is a team that's been really deep in the playoffs for the last couple of years that might fall under that for us to fade. But I'm struggling to come up with one. I mean, you could look specifically at Buffalo and Baltimore. Yeah, I think both of those teams would say they've played enough games in the playoffs, gotten deep enough. But yeah. So we're fading the bills? Yeah, I mean, personally, when we were, I did the division pod a few days ago or a week ago, I like the bills to make the wild card in that division. Like I think that's an interesting bet just because I do see them obviously winning a crap ton of games because they always do. I mean, they've only gone under the win total twice. And I believe it was both by a half win. So like, they're always right there. But I do believe there is room this year for New England. So I thought like a wild card bet was interesting. And that leads to the fact that maybe there'll be a

27:07little more respected than I think they should be in the betting markets and maybe won't cover. As much as well. I would think too that the the the the extra games played, you've got to really start to rack up games in order for that to have an impact on your body to that degree. If you play one or two extra playoff games and you get an entire off season and you're bringing in new bodies through free agency and the draft, how much impact could that really have? But if you're a team like, I think it perfectly explains Kansas City. Kansas City's just been running hard for years. And last year, you can finally smack them upside the head. Let's talk about the curse of the super team. There is no team catching more steam in the market than the LA Rams. What is the history? They went from plus five 50 to five to one after Aaron Donald rejoined the LA Rams. What's the history of teams? Five to one or lower to win the Super Bowl. Basically, what does history tell us about the Rams being such a short shot this year? Yeah. So I think there's a little caveat here as well.

28:08I hate doing this, but like the Rams were plus five 50 for a long time. Donald comes in their five to one and then all of a sudden this stat is like everywhere. It feels like a little, you know, like they were already the favorite, you know, this stat is what it is, but it is the numbers and it is there. So I will repeat it. So last 30 years, I looked at basically all the features and I've seen this on ESPN. I've seen this a lot of different places. Everyone has a little bit of a different number. I have 27 teams entering a season at five to one odds or shorter. Last 30 years, none of them have won the Super Bowl. So the last one to do it, the last one to do it would be the Cowboys in 1995. The one thing I will say is this, if you look at all the teams to win the Super Bowl, obviously a few outliers, like I believe the Eagles were 40 to one. Like there is a few teams, you will see the pop range, but most of them win in that like six to one to 12 to one range. So usually there isn't the long shot that comes through the door and wins the Super Bowl,

29:13but these teams that have really gotten the plus two 50s, the plus 300s that have entered the year with tons of expectations. I mean, I believe, and I'll look at this later now, I think eight of them have made the Super Bowl since 2000. Yes, since this, I believe this I'm looking at it right now. Oh, eight since 96. So since the Cowboys won that 95, eight of them in the Super Bowl and all lost in the Super Bowl. So it's not like these teams aren't having success because even eight of them made the game. They're just not winning the Super Bowl, which is super interesting in itself. The way I look at this as is just super, super difficult in this era with injuries and so many other things to kind of get the job done, but it's not like these teams aren't having success. The thing that I think is fun is between 1991 and 1995. Five of these teams made the Super Bowl in three wanted. So when did NFL free agency start? It wasn't in the middle of the game. Yeah, it was about that time. So I do think some of that has to do with it, but it's hard to sit here and say,

30:19oh my god, these teams aren't doing well when eight are making the Super Bowl. They're just not winning the game. So this stat could be very different if four of those turned around in one, but it isn't intriguing that it's been a long, long time since his team or these teams have got it done. The other one is this. The Rams didn't even make the Super Bowl last year and they had these expectations, which if you look back, first of all, there hasn't been a team at five to one or shorter to even close the season like that since the Chiefs in 2021. And then you kind of look at the list and you say to yourself, when was the last time a team didn't make the Super Bowl the year before and then had these expectations? Like you have the Ravens in 2020. You had the Patriots, I believe it was 2017, I think, but it happens sometimes, but again, stat holds true. So we will see what happens to staff in a company. So if we're talking Super Bowl futures, which teams fit the Evan Abrams bill of potential future bet? So I would have to look at the odds very quick right now, but mostly it would be

31:22the Seahawks, Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, Chargers. Like it's a normal season if a team between like six to one and 18 to one wins the Super Bowl. It happens almost every year based off of just those spots. This year, it's a little intriguing because the Rams are five to one and the next second choice of the Bills attend to one. So you really don't have like usually have two or three teams and like that seven to nine range and we can't really pick a favorite this early, but this year we can. But any of those teams would be a normal market year. You have the Niners at 17 to one, the Broncos, the Lions, all those teams under 20 to one, 20 to one are higher, you start to get to some outliers. Does that drop off tell you anything? I don't know if it tells me anything other than just the expectations for the Rams are so ridiculous. Just because they were so good last year and a few bounces go a few ways they're in the Super Bowl, maybe they win it all last year. And that's what you just keep hearing from everyone. So when

32:26some team, at least recently, with recent markets since, you know, legalization, when a team is like five to one or four to one, you won't see another team usually in that six, seven, eight to one range. It's just about what the odds have to be in the market. So it's kind of just a reason why Buffalo is at nine or 10 to one. And to cap this, yeah, you're suggestion for anybody out there that just keeps staring at that Rams number saying, I don't see this team losing. You would not bet this right now, right? I would not not right now. Like I would be utterly shocked and listen, I took the Patriot and the Super Bowl. We've all been wrong before. I'd be utterly shocked if that number went five to one and never got higher again. Like there's just all sorts of different things that can get in the way. And there's injuries and there's there's a long, long season. And also you're talking to the wrong guy. I'm just not the guy to invest in the Rams now at five to one. And even if I'm wrong and they win the Super Bowl, I will not look back at this point and say I made

33:29the wrong choice. But that's just yeah, I don't think you're going to find a lot of sharp bettors right now screaming at the top of their lungs. You got a bit the Rams to win the Super Bowl. No, because Matt Stafford is all this fuck dude. I mean, this time you needed a reason to fade them. Like this stat to me is so valuable that it's just I've been fading. No, it's a. But this time last year, he was also this time last year, he was in like a bearer, a bearer chamber like outside the Rams facility. We were talking about back prolly things happen in this season. Like there is a situation where there's another quarterback on the Rams and like the Rams look different. And I would say, okay, they're worthy of a four to one or a five to one. I just don't see it. And numbers do change. Even if they're along, I had the Falcons that I had given out in the offseason at 75 to one and thought, even if this doesn't come home, there's no way I'm going to lose value on this. You started by guzzling the Falcons.

34:30130. It always it always comes back to Atlanta with this podcast. The odds of nearly the I just wanted to call myself out here because the odds have nearly doubled on Atlanta. They have mentioned the Falcons more than I talk about the Jags. Let it be now. The NSS South and ASS South are like this. Yeah, but can I get a little bit of credit here? I'm calling myself out. Okay, I'm I it's not this isn't me telling people you need to go and do this. I'm telling you. You want to forehead kiss and a glass of hot milk. We didn't need to hear you get called out to talk about Atlanta again, but I love you. All right. Let's see what else we're guzzling on this episode today. Let's move to the Patriots. I know we already touched on them, but that was for a week one early season look. They're an interesting test case this season for the jump that they had from 2024. They won four games to 2025. They won 14 of 14 games. What happens in that third season if this has happened in the past? Historically, what does that tell us as far as a jump up and then

35:34do they fall back down? What are we looking at? I mean, the 10 win thing just doesn't happen. It happened once. So I mean, the test case for the Patriots is ridiculous. And that's why they were the story of last season, especially with the odds and you know, if they would have won the Superbow last year, it would have been a complete outlier. I mean, if I remember correctly, it was like 60 to 1. I mean, they would have they would have taken the cake back to like the Rams and no one and so you know, things of that nature, Rams Patriots. So the other team to do it was 2007, 2008 dolphins. They went from one win to 11 wins. They ended up pushing the next year. It's one team. I'm not trying to take anything from that. I don't think there is anything to take from that. I think the Patriots at least on their own have to be looked at individually because I think they've just added a ton to the roster. Like I do like the Romeo dobs, the AJ Brown. Like I think they've gotten better. So I just think there's a different way to look at it. But when you look overall, the 10 win jump. Yeah, I mean, it's it's something we just haven't seen. And the other thing that's

36:37crazy is is going over by that many wins that season as well. Like you saw the Broncos do it. But Denver's done it in back to back years, which is also kind of a unique case. This is really a statistics question. But obviously the Patriots have a ton of distractions. Christian Gonzalez is camp coming out yesterday saying that if they don't have a deal done before the season, they're done trying to work through one. Does that change anything for you when handicapping the Patriots? Because obviously you're not going to get that top version of Christian Gonzalez if he doesn't have a contract because he's not going to want to, you know, go out there and play to the top of his ability or push himself too hard when trying to find new contract. So what does does that change anything for you as far as value on this team? Yeah, I think it's just a probability thing. Like it's just if you're trying to project them for the season, you go and look at his contract, you look at the situation, you read the news and you say to yourself, okay, like if everything was well and good and you had 100% Christian Gonzalez all season long, well, what is he now? Like we you just have to project out what you think you're going to get from him and

37:41is he going to play all 17 games, you know, okay, maybe he does get traded or maybe something does crave crazy happen. Maybe you can only project him for like 11 games in a Patriot uniform this year because, you know, I just think it's all about at least from like a season long win total perspective of them. Like you're not necessarily just looking at Seattle and week one. I think you just need to project what you think he's going to play for them. And I think you could be more optimistic or more pessimistic based off of the news and what you know and even talking to a person like yourself who's in the media there and is talking to the people like it's just about what you know and how you know, like he is a top top top corner. So if he is going to be there and you think he's going to be there for all 17 games, it just goes with my theory more. But I do understand your your stop with him and the things that have happened there and what could happen. So I think it's difficult. But me personally, I have to believe that, you know, he's probably probability projected at like 75% of games at this point. Like I don't think it's going to stop some

38:45and stop him from being there. But I do think it's something you need to be alert about. On that front, quick aside, because Evan and I are in disagreement already, first game of the season, I like the sea hawks minus three and a half is Christian Gonzalez is a possible that he doesn't play in this game. Is that a discussion up in your parts, Kendra? I haven't heard anything about him not playing. I I'm under the assumption that this deal will get done before the season starts. It's not a money issue. It's apparently like a language issue with the contracts. But it seems like both sides are a bit disgruntled, but there's just if you want to keep good faith with Drake May, yes, you have to sign him. But if you don't want there to be any conversation or media buzz or just crap going on when it comes to that, I think they have to get it done. Also, Evan, did I miss did I miss this as I see it in the notes that the last time this happened, it was the Miami Dolphins. The last time we saw a team jump 10 wins year over year was yeah,

39:47oh, 708, I believe. That was and do you remember the identity of that Miami Dolphins team that won 11 games that year? That is specific trait to them. Was it the was it the Ronnie Ronnie and Ricky? Yes, it was the Wildcat Dolphins and that was also the year the time Brady went down. So it's talk about a unique circumstance where you invent you basically you took this old offense from the 20s in a year where the best quarterback in the NFL wasn't healthy in your division for the first time and only time. And so it makes sense that there was a bit of a jump and then and then they slid back down to earth. Let's talk about the teams that were cashing tickets last year. Do teams who performed well against the spread the year prior to and to roll that over? I would think just gut feel and betting that that sort of thing corrects itself rather quickly that you get immediate regression. You know, we think of our Jacksonville Jaguars were one of the best spread

40:47covers last year. And then what about the opposite end for teams that struggled to cover the spread? Did they then bounce back strong? Is there anything were you able to find anything on that? Usually what you see is this and this is kind of the only thing the data usually spits out when looking at this stuff. Teams who cover at the top rate the year prior usually bend down a tiny bit but it's more or the less of usually you don't see teams at the top do better than like 12 and 5 against the spread. Those teams average about 10 or so covers the year prior if not a little bit because usually they're just back around 500. Usually it's about two win difference on average is what I've seen especially if you look kind of recently and it kind of works the same for the teams at the bottom as well. But mostly it's kind of an individual thing year to year. Cover

41:48percentage very difficult to just project because it kind of depends on the line and there's just so much change here to year. But I will say the teams like the real outliers like you said do tend to have some upward projectory or some regression. It really just depends. It's not blanket it unfortunately. Yeah, I do think that it's something that you can definitely look at at least and say okay who is absolutely crushing expectation last year and who fell way short of it. It's just one of those things you can kind of just store in your mind before you overvalue somebody in the following season. Usually there's more and actually the cover margin than there is the actual results in itself which is obviously more difficult to find and when you're researching and it makes it more difficult to quantify I guess without having the data. But usually it's the higher cover margins because if you think about it like you could cover by like a half a point versus covering by like eight points. So the margin usually tells the story more if you're trying to find upward projectory or regression.

42:52We're now officially on the heels of week one. I'm starting to kind of get into the weeds of my official bets for the week. Am I wrong in feeling like or remembering that dogs feel like they cover pretty significantly in week one just because I think it's probably it has a lot to do with so much time to prepare is the healthiest everybody is going to be. Am I wrong in wanting to be on a lot of dogs in week one? Believe and I can quickly look this up as we're sitting here but I believe the bigger dogs and the home dogs especially in division have been like the better bets when you're talking about week one like if you're trying to pinpoint certain underdogs because it's not like you know you're probably going to be betting 16 games or something like that at least probably not the way you should be attacking it the other angle and I believe and I'll have this in my article when I bring it out as well but I believe it's the teams and this gets a little bit into the weeds but historically it's like teams who don't make the playoffs pretty or prior versus teams who do those teams who are underdogs in week one tend to spine success. So there is like some

43:56slivers of the pie that kind of give you better let's just call them angles trends however you want to say it in week one but if you're just looking blanketed like over the years if you just look at underdogs let's see so last year eight and eight before that seven and nine ten and six so usually about 500 but they do it is a decent like since 2021 it's 10 games above 500 blanketed in terms of underdogs it's just like a seven percent return on investment so not terrible and if you even go back to pretty strong look like since 2016 87 and 70 seven percent ROI over the last decade so that's just blanketed underdogs in week one not not a bad look I'm sure if I looked at money line you might even find a sharper trend there with obviously less wins but a higher return on your investment and I think we we have a lot of arrows pointing to one game in particular that's coming to mind that is going to be one of the most heavily bit games of the week one because it's

45:01prime time is the Broncos and the chiefs the Broncos are plus two and a half in that game divisional underdogs the numbers the trends would point towards the Denver Broncos the chiefs over the last couple of years I see this in the notes as well not a good spread covering team I've certainly been fading them game to game a lot over the last couple of years however that's with my homes as a bigger favorite because he's typically overvalued that's not the case here so my homes as a short favorite the chiefs overall and the Broncos as a road divisional underdog we have a lot of arrows pointing in different directions and you're going to see people use this in whichever way suits their bet I would think yeah there there's a lot of ways to kind of slice this pie up especially because they play each other so often I will say in terms of your total bets point there on the game right now it's about fifth or fourth if you look in total bets if you just look at the Sunday games so by

46:02the time we actually get to that Monday game it is going to have a ton of bets this one right now is getting a lot of action we're seeing like 56% of the tickets at least on action on Denver which is intriguing so people kind of liking the points there to talk about the stat and put some numbers behind it so the homes in his career minus three or less or an underdog he is 30 13 and one against the spread though last year two and three against the number which would be his first year under 500 in this spot for his career so up into that point you would have said you know great trend great situation always take my homes last year didn't work out so much it isn't just thing enough that this would be the fourth time he's closed minus three or shorter or a dog in week one obviously last year we saw the exact same spot he lost to the chargers and he's beaten the Ravens and the chargers prior to that so to me again I mean this was a different chief's team this chief's team now I feel

47:04like has been rebuilt for the fourth time potentially so it's a little bit difficult to look at like am I using the Tyree kill numbers like those numbers feel like just a different situation even though the 30 and 13 does feel all squeaky clean and nice this one should be just it's a different matchup the one thing I will say people keep talking about the close game stuff really difficult to project right last year one in nine the year before 11 and oh like what do we actually think we're going to be getting from Kansas City just difficult I will say the one thing before we move on here like them going six and 11 against the spread last year they've been under five hundred five of the last six years since 2020 they are the fourth worst ATS team since 2020 jets Falcons Titans and then the chiefs so their lines have just been inflated and I think now you might see the lines be tighter which would give them a little more value but that is just me projecting forward a

48:05little bit yeah and I would buy into that theory wholeheartedly because it does feel like a good time to buy low on the chiefs but they're still favored to win the division and their favorite in week one and it's like yeah yeah I are there yes in theory they should be the by low stock right now but they're not so I can't buy the chiefs but in theory you should be able to okay let's wrap before we get to our plant the flag bet got asked about these public percentages how has the public been doing in recent years I know it's kind of fluctuated I believe the last couple of seasons yeah let's just talk this preseason for a second because I just think it's fun so far public has had a fun preseason 30 17 and one now when I say public what I mean is I'm blankantly looking at 51 percent of tickets or higher according to action network data so basically every game falls in public on one side opposite on the other 30 17 and one and the absurd stat from preseason I love

49:05this one popular underdog so when you had 51 percent of tickets are higher and the team was a dog they went 19 3 and 1 in the preseason which is absolutely ridiculous but if you just look regular season last five years it has fluctuated last year 47 percent the two years prior to that 51 five and 54.7 those that was the first time in a long time that we had back-to-back years where the public was against over 500 didn't happen last year so we will see what happens there usually not very predictable when you look year to year but it was interesting that the trend dip down a like it was about 4 percent dip from 24 to 25 so we'll see what happens and we can update it week to week here over time you are probably going to lose if you bet with the public that would be my that would be my long-term stance on this by the way just got a just got note Michael Wilson three-year extension with the Arizona Cardinals so those are my Arizona Cardinals I think we're

50:09I think we're Cardinals podcasts this year I think there are new P words them and the Raiders they uh I think the Cardinals might be our birds of the year on I think I think that they are the birds of the year yeah well selling is it too late to sell my Falcon stock okay we're tired of me saying Falcons let's plant the flag on one final future bet before we get to week one presented by draft Kings with a crown of course is yours like a flag get it set up I'm trying to plant my flag here okay you're really planning to flag and that thing Kendra get us started I chose this because I don't think I've given it out on the podcast yet because I got to the window on it last week after we talked about it I'm on the Raiders over five and a half this season I think no matter who is their quarterback this team's gotten a lot better and the ceiling for them is a lot higher I know that there are some question marks for them on defense but after the 53 man roster came out I have expectations for this team and that's something that I haven't had in quite some time I think they made some good moves they've had some good drafts getting Max

51:11Crosby back without him actually leaving so I don't know if I can say back is such a like a needle mover for me for this team I'm all over the Raiders this year I really think that they are going to finally take a leap got him back they got him back like I get a boomerang back if I throw it out just kind of whips back around at you Evan what about you uh it's funny because one bet I was considering was the jets to have more wins in the Raiders but I decided against that for a multitude of different reasons but I see Kendrick as like the Raiders so I am going to go a different direction I saw this bet and I took it on the divisional podcast I was on a few a week or so ago I'm going to bet it again I like the Cardinals to have more wins than the dolphins I saw it at plus 140 you say plus 140 that price is that price is sitting there because of the division because of Miami's division and who they'd have to play face even though I will say you know New England Buffalo not the easiest and obviously the Cardinals division difficult but I like

52:14Arizona more wins than Miami the one thing I will say Miami faced an average opponent of almost a hundred to one last year in terms of the Super Bowl lives they face of all the opponents all year that was a fourth easiest mark this year it's about 57 to one which is the second hardest so that is a large large difference here to year I will take Arizona to have more wins in Miami can we put that on the action app for the people to jump on as a pod bet because I would like to collectively do this because I agree birds of the year yeah no no pushback the only issue with Arizona is their division but it's just there's such a better outfit than what the Miami dolphins are at this point and they both have really tough schedules forecasted wind totals for your opponent those are the two hardest schedules in the NFL pretty sinister stuff from Gidele and company to have the two worst teams in the league potentially uh with the first place schedule even matter anymore because it seems like the people who didn't win their division got absolutely screwed I mean

53:17the first division winners last year were weird that's why yeah but some of the fourth place scheduled are nice like didn't the who's it it was the lions right that finished fourth in the NFC North uh yeah they got a pretty good they got a they got a pretty good schedule cat of the year other than the jugs maybe even better than the jugs this year I got to be honest are the cat of the year symbol of the year I got we uh we we might we might need to isolate uh for our first week one episode just sort of like nominate our animals for uh for each team in the NFL mine is going to be Lamar Jackson over 15599 and a half rushing yards he has smashed this every season but one it was last year he's got a new OC he's ranked 69th is the number guys I knew it I was going to say 69 but I didn't want you guys to think that I was just trying to make a 69 joke I swear to God because I did a whole thing about it on my other show it's a 39 and I was I guess I was I was I was I was being you know more PC with my I haven't actually looked you noticed week one uh rushing yards uh

54:19prop is I don't but I can I keep I'm sure that I can find that quickly I'm just curious because like there's that's an interesting fact because there is so much conversation about his lack of running last year and obviously with a completely different system you assume you know fully healthy he just looked like a different player without the motor um but I would be curious how the markets going to like project him and he doesn't poop himself usually until December there's anybody want to take it let's let's do uh one one final guess from the panel here for Lamar Jackson's rushing yard total in week one against Indianapolis Evan oh my god uh it's way lower than I would have I was oh I was gonna say like I was gonna say like 61 and a half 50 40 40 it's 37 what he's healthy I know I mean there must be there must be something that I'm missing as far as the type of offense the Declan Doyle one but that 37 but that 37 tells you why that number is where it is for a full season I was thinking I was on the opposite end I thought you

55:24were gonna say it was like way higher what's crazy though is that there's no way first of all I hate to be that guy but I bet this a couple weeks ago is 575 and a half it's now 599 and a half there's no way that this closes south of 600 I still think that there's value on this he has passed this number in seven of his eight seasons and it's not even close and what's crazy about that is that in some of these seasons he's only played 12 games I love having that sort of cushion where the pushback for Lamar is gonna be well health okay even when he's not healthy he still hits the over on this that's the sort of cushion that you're getting you don't have to have a season ending injury in the middle of the year in order for this not to come home or all the sudden the best rushing quarterback I've ever seen in my life decides not to run and I just refuse to believe that that's gonna happen yeah drop we're by dropping the like on that one now he's guzzling Lamar guys I mean to be fair 40 times 17 is like 680 I mean people can do math on their own but like it's

56:30it's in line it's it should be interesting I can't I hope I remember that season long back because I want to I want to track it oh you be bringing math on this we should have that for a I generator there you go Kendra's on the raiders over five and a half wins I like Lamar Jackson over 599 and a half rushing yards in Evan likes the Arizona Cardinals our birds with more wins than the Miami Dolphins at plus 140 why should you place these bets at draft kings because all draft kings customers are getting a profit boost every game day in the month of September and that is why the crown is yours the favorites will return next week week one preview we did it and you can catch it right here on the action network youtube page give yourselves a round of applause out there our show has been presented by draft king see hawks patriots here we come

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