NFL Week 1 - Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Strategy

0:00All systems go clear What's up everyone, Tyler Timberlein here, aka, Totech and Tambo. We are back for another season of leverage lane and a fell addition here on the ship and nation YouTube station got my guy Alex Blickel here with me as always. And for those that don't know or have never joined us, we started this back in week three of last NFL season. We ran it all the way consistent throughout the entire NFL season. We ran it back for PGA and this is the show that's going to talk to you all about single entry focus getting leverage finding your lane.

1:03What is the chalk build look like? How can we leverage that? And it's the latest version of this in the week that comes out. I know some others have adapted and got shows like this, but free and coming out this late in the week not looking for all the views and the hits and the clicks and everything else. This is mainly focused on getting you the best possible information with the most up to date numbers, data, projections, ownership, etc. We're going to talk through all of that and more Alex. It's that time of year. My friend. We're back. If you guys are just joining us, make sure to hit that thumbs up and subscribe to the channel. We're free with this show and many others every single week. What's going on my friend? How you doing? It's so good to be back. It's so good to have football. I think the first two games were a bit underwhelming, but hopefully the main slate will not be in. Yeah, I mean, we we're going to talk about a lot but like last week's week one was really or last years week one was really fun. I think I feel I feel much more prepared for this NFL season than I think I ever have. So hopefully hopefully that actually plays out. It might not at all, but but hopefully it does. I wonder why that is. Maybe tell the people why you think that is because I know somebody's talking about already in the chat about different types of builds. Maybe another year, the double tight ends. You did a ton of roster construction bearing the lead here, but you did a ton of roster construction data for this upcoming NFL season.

2:13If anybody hasn't checked out Alex's discord, you can use the promo code TAMBO and check it out, but talk to me a little bit just about what you got going on going into this season will hit that quickly and then we'll jump right in. We got a couple topics today too that we want to touch on to hook the people up to start the year. Yeah, I mean, the roster construction analysis is definitely a big part of that. Like the way that I'd frame it is, you know, we don't have to guess anymore about like, hey, is this a good strategy? You know, can I can I make this work or anything like that? You don't have to guess anymore. I've got the data in the discord where you just look at the data and you say, okay, very clearly pairing a quarterback with the stack in this way and using this type of bring back is a winning strategy. And now all I have to do is go find the stacks that actually fit that mold and do so well. So, so yeah, that's definitely a big part of it. And then also everything I have over at Blick Analytics now the contest him the new and improved GPP scores like all of it. I think just really in a good place. And I also say that, you know, because I've been working on my own thing for so long now.

3:14Every other kind of NFL season has felt like a rush to get started and to just make sure everything's ready on time. And this time around like I had contests. I'm so been running like last Tuesday or something like that. So yeah, been a long time coming at this point. And I kind of can't believe that we're already there because it feels like just a week ago that, you know, we were watching the tour championship and we were still two and a half weeks away from the from the start of the season. But here we are. And I can't wait to get going. Yeah, just a week ago, we were actually doing a cohort with the AI DFS people and appreciate everybody to check that out. So if you guys want more of that in the future, let us know. If you guys are a long time watchers of leverage Lane, let the people know in the chat, leave the comment below after we're done with the live session here and let them know your thoughts on this show. We think it's going to be really fun season. Before we get into it quickly, just going to run through fast on our end because a couple things for if you're already a ship at nation member. I'm going to tag the discord one more time. And that's it. The promo the secret promo the back end promo member only et cetera with the sabers. And founding family two point all promos for starter or founding family ends tomorrow morning. There's no exceptions. If you're late, you miss it's not to be rude. We've given you all the time in the world. A lot of people like to procrastinate. We know that with the survivor contests out there on splash, et cetera. But just keep it mine.

4:26If you want that the early bird special if you're trying to get the entire season for just NFL only and include Sabersim, not even sabersim.com can give you NFL single sport. So for 349 you get everything we've simplified it. It's showdown projection. Zonorship the stone and stone 2.0 which we'll get to later the slate station which will go live this afternoon right after the show the value report from our man Rio and then as the weeks go on. We'll get you the DVP rankings. You can see little social proof if you click winner circle on the main main page. You can see the four millimetre winners. We've had all the hundred K scores 10 K scores, et cetera. We'll bore you with those but our members do win. And then ship it games. It's the coolest thing in the DFS industry. No other site does anything like this. None I none I know of are even giving away a mega ticket for week one. And that's only one tenth of what we're giving away which is 45,000 in cash and prizes. It's a community contest every all access and NFL only member is eligible go to ship it games.com or ship at nation.com and click the 45,147 dollars at the top you can see how it works but there's ways to boost this prize pull up even more one lucky winner from the ship at nation community that's with us this season will come away with 10 grand cold hard cash if thought more because there's a way to boost it 5K for second 2500 nobody in the top 10 will come away with less than a thousand dollars and bonus prizes from Sabersim.

5:43All right Alex I do want to show this off funny enough you said something about like like hopefully it starts off this way hopefully you know you're not recall last year seventh place in the mega milling for the for the man Jim Blickel over there. You had yourself a year and I want to show this off quickly for people because this is interesting and I think it's going to start the conversation for where going this year everyone knows with week one in NFL DFS there's a ton of I know everything. And then there's also a ton of will the projections tell me this i'm just going this way no matter what and then for you and for me a lot of it comes down to game theory leverage putting that stuff together so that okay we can use some of this some of that but my knowledge isn't necessarily what I know about a player it's maybe what I know about how DFS players play how we can play against that and some of the strategies in the data that you've got now so. We've got a partnership at DFS OS dot com very simple URL to go check out you can use code ship it to get half price so you get 59 down to 29 i'll show you here though Alex this is pretty cool so I went here once you're in the dashboard and you're a member it starts it's fully customizable to whatever you want I just went slate review.

6:54I've changed it already so it saves my settings but you can change it I went 2025 NFL i'm going back to that Sunday I loaded the mega mille and right there Peter Gibbons got the job done but you're only nine points back or so and I'll let you talk about it in a second now your line ups there but also i'll show this off quickly I went to player profiles I typed in Jim Blickel i'm going to save the time for everybody because it's already there in my thing and then I went do you lie I just went back to September I sorted by your biggest win which was the 50k I'm going to do it again. I click the view line ups button this has five years worth of data on here but there's your team my friend and man what a glaring it that is I don't know if neco Collins ever put up less than six points and he was you know not cheap either so it's like that got to be hurtful but talk to us just a little bit about your strategy from this maybe and bringing it across because I know we're going to talk a lot about this week and it's still week one different people different prices different landscapes coaching etc but talk to me a little bit more about it.

7:54What's the point of this is a little bit about this and that experience. Yeah I mean for one thing like that was really cool I had I had won that ticket in the tour championship last year so you know it gave myself a chance to really make some noise off the bat and unfortunately was able to kind of capitalize on that and anybody who hasn't watched a ton of leverage lane before like one of the things that I'm going to talk a ton about is the full satellite strategy trying to give yourself access to more DFS ceiling without having to actually increase the amount that you're putting into line ups instead you just try to win those tickets and then when you get the tickets obviously you get a chance to make some real noise and so I'm very very happy with the start of that and I think the cool part about this lineup is it did a couple things that I talked about a lot less season just from a strategic standpoint things that I'm still going to be talking about all of this season. The first of which that I'll point to is the ameca buka play if you remember and obviously for some people it's going to be hard to remember this was exactly a year ago now but a book was really really cheap.

9:00He was very very popular and on the other side of that game they were playing it landed Drake London was extremely popular and one of my biggest takes coming to the game was that hey no one's really going to stack that game but they were going to be a ton of a buka London combinations pairings I should say and so if you play just one of them as a one off you're going to get much lower like conditional ownership on that player then you would expect to given his actual ownership and that really came true for for a buka and you know Drake London was was very underwhelming in the game he wasn't as underwhelming as Nico Cowan so maybe I would have been better off with with London instead of Nico but but I do feel like that was a big part of the lineup and then the second thing was just trying to be ahead of the curve on some team level stuff obviously like I played the cults here I was not making a bet on the cults being great throughout the season I was making more of a bet on their opponent Miami having a historically. Bad defense both kind of came true so that's why I think that that's that was so successful and obviously like part of today's show I think is going to be about okay well who which offense this year can be the version of last year's cults that right now we're not thinking much of their offense but come week six week seven it's like wow you know everyone is at least a thousand dollars more expensive and we just have a a ton more confidence in that team then we do it this moment in time.

10:29Yeah and this is my topic of the week so I have to again people are just joining us for the first ever what we try and do is give like an evergreen conversation at the start of the week week one we're going to have some fun we're hyped up you can tell the passions always there but the extra little bit of excitement almost like Christmas day Christmas Eve ready for tomorrow whatever holiday you might celebrate just saying getting excited or one thing I noted right away by the way was you know this ownership looks right now you said a buka extremely popular he was like 41% fine but how do you get away with that not who you play it's how you play them well your entire stack Jones pitman and Warren was all under nine percent quarterback ownership always spread out but basically under five percent for the two stack pairings and then the defense was almost basically five percent and Nico and CMC two studs that again whether it worked out or not I get it with Nico and any other game for the season you probably win the million bucks with that score but if some butts candy's a nuts we know that one so high point being you really did find a way to play this different I believe if I recall correctly you did just have the one lineup off the ticket that you'd want I think you mentioned that but I you mentioned the tour championship or something you got it was exciting because it's kind of the the wrap around which we do now like golf and then football you get to bring it all across but I wanted to talk a little bit today you know going through

11:40Devin's mastermind over at ship it and everything with your you know folks over in your discord like single entry versus one lineup and people like what do you mean or like how does that work or what are you talking about it's like the people don't always connect that I think it's the exact same thing but you are still going up against it like this week the mega mille has max 22 entries but 750 possible seats so there is going to be multiple people that have 22 entries in that thing so how do you go about it when you're in a tournament like this and you only have one lineup of course what you're doing could apply and be brought across to single entry but I think it's more important to remember to sometimes people get into a single entry or have one lineup and say got a tighten up min cash is huge it's game changing I got this off a hundred dollar ticket or a 70 dollar or 37 whatever it is I just got to get a min cash but anything else would be gravy on top but then they build a lineup that's backed into a corner with the people with 22 linux have like three of that version of what you got you most certainly did not do that running six guys at a nine under 10%

12:44on yeah I don't mean to jump ahead a little bit to start talking about the the chalk builder the chalk stack but you know take this week for example if you have one lineup in the 4 4 4 4 4 you're going up against so many different lineups that are stacking this Detroit and New Orleans game in some way we're like let's say you even think all right I'm going to do it in a little bit of a contrarian way I'm going to go golf James and Williams I'm on Rossane Brown I'm going to bring back with Vela and John Johnson instead of a lot of you know so anything like that the thing you have to recognize is you're going up against so many different combinations and different iterations from that game and then also different combinations and iterations around that game of however people are stacking that that with only one lineup it's really really hard for you to get it right in a way that no one else gets it right if you instead go to a stack you know equivalent of last year's you know Daniel Jones Michael Pittman Tyler Warren which by the way like that was also deviating off of the the most popular pass catcher on Indianapolis now it's not like he was chalk or anything but he was I think like 13% 15% something that was

13:53Josh Downs so not only did I go to a really contrarian stack but I also then stacked it in a contrarian way so like when my stack hit I wasn't competing with other Daniel Jones lineups right like I think if you looked at the top of the board I I can't exactly remember but I don't even think that you know there were there were many I like I don't think there was anyone else near the top that had Tyler Warren I think there was anyone else near the top maybe someone had Pittman but maybe no one else had Jones and Pittman so I can't exactly remember but there were more there were more Jones than I then I remembered but as you can see like most of these yeah it was just Jones Pittman though like you said so all I needed was Warren all I needed was Nico Collins so yeah it made it a lot easier for me to climb the board because I wasn't competing with a massive amount of different iterations of my own lineup if my own lineup did really well of my own lineup was was close to the thing that you needed I knew that they were going to be very few competitors that was up against you and you talk a lot about in the past to like inverse correlation like looking at like again a lot of people especially in week one here's the most common theme right everyone's going to say the same thing and it's true we get it we believe it too we we live and breathe and die in these streets every single day so it's like we get it but pricing came out July 31st therefore there's were super mispriced there's $5 800,000 person tournaments to fill up on draft Kings similar on Fan Duel etcetera etcetera we focus mostly on draft Kings here but just noting it we get all that but on Monday when I was President

15:23I do take down breakdown at 10 AM Eastern on this station. So again, subscribe to the channel. If you don't already, all the shows are free. That's where someone's gonna sit in that chat room and YouTube chat and say, well damn, that doesn't even look that crazy. But it actually might be. It's like, you were on some of those spots, yes. But you also were like, you were in a lot of the right places because certain things happened, but you didn't end up on the right players. And so I've seen you do this a bunch of times where it's like, everyone's on JT, you're on the stack. We'll talk about it this week, but you're looking at what others are doing and just applying it in a different way because no one really knows anything. You do need the right players at the end of a DFS week. But to me, it's always the right picks and plays are a result of the process. Like you build accordingly and then the outcomes happen. So that's how I look at it. That was, I mean, it's actually like as we were talking through this, I'm remembering things that were going through my mind when I built that lineup. And one of the big ones was that Jonathan Taylor was really popular. And for those who can't remember,

16:24this was a game where Taylor was doing really well in the first half and then barely even played in the second half and came out that he was kind of injured, but fine, and could have finished the game, but they were just up a lot. But certainly like the leverage off of Jonathan Taylor was a big reason why I played that lineup. And actually, I can't remember which of the guys ahead of me it was, but one of them had something like 19 lineups and Jonathan Taylor was in 17 of the 19. And then the other two were Daniel Jones lineups that stacked the offense without using Jonathan Taylor. And it was exactly what you're kind of referring to there. Like they're trying to, even though they're making like a huge stance on one player in Jonathan Taylor, when they don't have him, it's not just a different idea like just in case he fails. It's like, okay, that lineup is going to tell the exact story of how he failed. And it's the Daniel Jones just threw it in for a touchdown each time. And it wasn't Jonathan Taylor breaking off an explosive run. Man, that's just so powerful. And again, for some, I know it hits home already and they get it and understand I talk a lot over a DMS mastermind

17:24about aha moments versus oh yeah, moments. And what I mean by that is sometimes people catch an aha moment. Like they might somebody might be watching this right now and just learn that they're the type that usually say, okay, Gibbs this week, forget Gibbs. I don't want to play him at 55%. I'm just going to fade him. But then you go look at like the Detroit team total, you look at this match up like obviously things can still fail. And I get that in some lineups, but I'm saying most, you know, if you're looking at from your perspective, most might say, I'm going to play Gibbs. Others might say I'm going to fade Gibbs. But how many actually have the aha moment to say, okay, I'm going to fade Gibbs, but I still believe this is going to happen in this game. Let me account for it and build or situational stuff where it's like, okay, I'm not on jail and hurts, but I'm also not on Barkley or Devonte Smith. And I'm thinking like, hey, if I know this lineup is not going to have hurts, I'm saying he's not the guy. It's what you're saying, whether you know it or not, you're just saying it with your lineup. And so you have to think about that. And then the oh yeah moment is when people catch themselves doing that and sometimes a lineup, even those out there that are hand

18:25building and being like, oh, I landed on this defense. Well, I heard Blickley and Tango talk about this and actually make sense now because I'm not on the defense that everyone's on on the opposite side. And there's a lot of players on that team that people are on. So they, it's not about the defense kills them necessarily. They could still score points, but it's more of like, if I'm already not on them, I might as well just complete the story and end the book and then see how it plays out when we go and see the games play out. So I think it's important to remember that as you're picking up these concepts, it takes time, it takes experience. But like you said, there's a lot of things you're thinking about where it's also like, okay, if you're not on Jonathan Taylor, what is it? Well, I'm going to go to Daniel Jones, pitman and Warren. This is last year's lineup of yours. But also, guess who's right next to Jonathan Taylor at low ownership that's also a pivot that will crush him even further down the board. So now he fails and the stack succeeds like it did for you. You get that leverage. This is leverage lane. But then also you pivoted to CMC who puts up points at 10% to Jonathan Taylor's

19:2830% and it's like, whoa, now I'm getting extra leverage. Like you're separating yourself rooms at a time. If you start in a room with 100 people, 100% of the people and you've found a way to escape 30% when JT gets pushed down and you go into the next room with 70% of the field now. And really it's less because it's they don't have and then you get out of the 70% room because only 5% of those have the Daniel Jones stuff. So now you're in this little tiny room that's like near the top and you guys can see the million dollar prize. And it's like, oh, wait, not all these teams have CMC. He has the big day. Now you got into an even smaller room and then you got into the room with 10 people and in the end, you ended up in the room with the final seven. And you just you had to exit before the other six did if you use that metaphor analogy, whatever you want to call. So I think that's really important. And we're going to talk about that when we get to leveraging the chalk build. I've got the stone two point off. I loaded it some, but before we do that, you wanted to talk. And I know you're excited for this one for your little topic here this week about I guess it's kind of I'll let you explain it. But the main thing is how the field might overcompensate or have over confidence.

20:31I should say in some things and I'll let you talk and elaborate on it. But tell me where this comes from and then break it down for everybody. Yeah, it's essentially the second thing you said there. It's I think the field is a whole is going to be overconfident this year and that that doesn't mean that like every single thing the field does is going to be wrong or anything close to that. What it means is we're going to see specific instances all year long where there's something we can really leverage and it's just the field being overconfident. There are essentially two things I think that are feeding this. The first is the is the more obvious one. It's just AI like, you know, if anyone who's using AI, whether it's to build their own tools, whether it's, you know, to get actual advice from the AI, they're going to feel a little bit better about whatever decision they're making. That's true, but it's also a hard thing to leverage specifically. I think the more impactful one and the one that hasn't been discussed much because like if you turn on, you know, any DFS show this week, you've heard about how AI might change the landscape and I do think that we might see a little bit more

21:34concentrated ownership just across the board this year than we have in the past. As a result of AI, just some degree and so like that would help just, you know, make the field a little bit more predictable. Then it's easier to leverage the field, so on and so forth. But I think the larger one, the thing that people aren't discussing, but might actually have the larger effect is how much more access and how much more popular it is now to really use like NFL charted data and you know, coverage data, match up data to that degree. And the problem with that for anyone using it is like, you know, I did a long, big, giant project this off season of finding what coverage splits and what, you know, blitz stats versus Russian concepts, what all of that stuff, like where it's stable and predictive versus where it's just noise. And unfortunately, the vast majority of it is just noise. And I think the main reason for that is sample size, but like let's also recognize the fact that,

22:36you know, if you turn on, or if you go on Twitter and look at the Drake May interception that he threw over the middle, you will see like really, really smart film guys arguing with each other, all citing like, I heard from a coach that, you know, it was this coverage, but someone else says, no, it was this coverage. Like what defenses are trying to do right now in today's NFL is make it really hard for the quarterback to diagnose what covers the ring, both free snap. And now like the new trend is even doing it after the snap. So like, you know, the quarterback gets the ball, you know, whether whether it's in the shotgun and takes the snap of shotgun or takes it from under center, takes a couple steps in the drop back, the defenders are like holding for a second, a second, a half and then bolting to their actual spot and whatever zone covers their, they're running. And so what they're trying to do is like they're trying to give the quarterback an impression who takes the snap looks up to see where the safety is, sees the safety's outside the hash and says, okay, I'm going to have the guy over the middle. But as soon as he turns to look over the middle, that safety's darting across.

23:38And so the problem is like, if you want coverage splits to be really predictive, really stable, the thing that you need is for the challenge against that coverage to be similar from one week to the next, from one opponent to the next. But every team is playing and showing these coverages in a dramatically different way now. And so I just found that like the vast majority of it, there's no signal. There are a couple and maybe I'll share one or two when they, when they kind of pop up. But there are a couple that like actually have a gigantic meaning on, on, you know, sealing outcomes, especially for, for opponents in matchups. So it's not like it never comes to fruition. But I think they're going to be instances this year where like the game environment isn't great. And you know, the, the receiver hasn't shown a massive ceiling, but in, whereas in the past, he would have been 10% on 12% on this year, he's going to be 20, 25% because a certain site picks up the fact that, hey, he's been really good against this coverage. And the team they're playing plays a ton of that. And it's not going to matter, but he's

24:39going to, you know, steam up to 20, 25% and fading that spot is going to be hugely advantageous to that slate. And similarly, they're, similarly, they're going to be guys who in the past would have been 25% on because, oh, the offense is in a really good spot. And we know that that guy has a ceiling and people are going to catch on in the fact that, well, wait a minute, he doesn't have good splits against this coverage. And that's the coverage of this team plays. And now we're going to get like one of the best plays on the slate at 15% instead of 25%. So I think we're going to see certain instances of like massive ownership inefficiencies because people are way overconfident in predicting what's actually going to happen. And so I think just like a general theme for this year is going to be constantly reminding everybody that even when the matchup screams one thing, we still need to recognize this is NFL football. It's one game at a time. And these ranges of outcomes for both the games and the players are still massive. And that's kind of our job still. It's still leveraging just how uncertain we are about the entire players range of outcomes and just taking advantage of the fact that taking advantage of the times where the field doesn't recognize

25:42how likely it is to have a massive game or is over, you know, overestimating probably the most likely outcome for that player. I've got to follow up on that. I think again, all good stuff. The chat's even humming about it. Like I think at the end of the day, my question would just be how much like how much is already baked into the projection. We do this in golf all the time where it's like the model leads to this. The stats lead to that. The Vegas odds are this in football. We've got the props. We've got the matchup coverage. We got now I know like sometimes the sportsbooks aren't adjusting enough. It feels like at least sometimes on a Sunday when you find out that the center is out for a team or like the starting alignment and you're like, man, that kind of does mess some shit up that they got to change up their plan. And this is that. Yeah, then like you don't see enough adjustment. Now nowadays I do think you see even some for that. But how much of it's already baked in because at the end of the day, I use like nothing when it comes to that. And I will tell you this from knowing like a ton as you do as well, know a ton of successful DFS players that have consistency and have been in the game over the years. I mean, in any of those conversations, chats, back and forths, you name it. There's

26:43very little of that conversation going on. But because a lot of things are incorporating it now, I think you nailed it. So what is your follow up on that? Just with everything I just said there. Yeah, it's a great point. And I would say like it depends on whatever site you're using, right? Like some sites are going to be open about like really incorporating matchup data and and they're going to use that by the way as like a selling point, right? They're going to say like, Hey, no one else is is incorporating this into their projections the way that we are. The problem is then I think a lot of those subscribers are going to go and they're going to double count things, right? Like let's say, let me let me think of one off the top of my head here. Like I think the bears last year, I'm just going by memory, I think they played like a ton of man coverage. So let's say someone has Macmillan projected like they gave him some extra target share points. They gave him some extra, you know, explosive play potential because of the matchup with a potentially high man coverage team. Now if you go on and you say, wow, Macmillan projects really well. And he's in a great matchup because

27:45because Chicago might play a bunch of man coverage. That means I like him even more than how well he's projected. Well, no, you just double counted that because that's already baked into the projection. So so yeah, whether you're a subscriber tip, like analytics, whether you're a subscriber to ship a nation or any other site around the industry, like it's important to recognize, okay, what is going into these projections? And what am I potentially double counting versus where can I use matchup data actually, directionally in a in a good way because I can confidently say, okay, this guy does project well, but I know that they are not incorporating this matchup level data into it. So the fact that he does project well. And I think that he has this potential matchup advantage like that's that's only going to help me if I'm right about that. And even if I'm wrong, he's still a good play because look how well he's projected. Yeah, well, we're on the cell. We always aim to do about a half hour mark. We can get to the chalk build and we're going to get there next for you guys. So stick around, make sure to hit that thumbs up. Sean Sully says, is it possible that overconfidence bleeds into full on stacks to like if X offense is good slash has been good this season, specifically against the opposing team teams main defensive coverages.

28:49Like are you thinking that's the other way it's going to work? Yeah, I mean that will definitely come up at times. But most of the time when when you're talking about like good versus man versus, you know, someone else is better for zone. It's more about like shifting production within an offense, right? And so like one of the examples that I can think of is, you know, for years, you know, I you was the man beater and then it was kiddo like in zone. And so you just kind of played it that way and and things and then you're so I think I think it's more about that than the entire stack. But but certainly like another point there. And this is also true of like, you know, when when opposing teams are really bad against a slot receiver or really bad against receivers at wide is like let's also remember that defensive coordinators aren't like totally ignorant to, you know, what their defense is doing well and what their defense is doing poorly. And so let's say a defense through four weeks has really been gashed by slot receivers. Well, in that defensive room, when they're making the game plan, when they're trying to figure out what they need to do or even whether they need to make personnel changes like a big point

29:53that they're trying to make and a big part of their strategy for that week is going to be, okay, this has been a real issue for us. How can we make sure we clean it up this week? And so that's another reason why things aren't stable is not just that there's a lot of randomness in terms of like why a certain offense might be really good against zone coverage for four weeks or something. But everybody else is aware of this and their opponent is going to try to take that away, right? So like if if a team has constantly just crushed man coverage. So let's let's even think of the the Rams game this past week, not this past week, just two days ago. Like I saw someone really criticizing the fact that the Rams brought into really good corners and then barely played man coverage and someone like immediately responded with, well, the reason for this is because if you play man coverage against San Francisco, they're just going to put Debo Samuel into the into the insert and they're going to make, you know, whatever corner is covering him, they're going to make him fill this rushing gap. And so now they're going to run all over you if you try to play man coverage or they're going to get, you know, McCaffrey split out wide and now

30:53you're in man coverage on Christian McCaffrey with a linebacker in the slot. And Shanahan's going to design the place so everyone else runs around him and McCaffrey just has all this room to work with. And so like essentially all this is to say, yeah, it'd be wonderful if like these coaches were totally unaware of this data that we had and we could just say because they have played this much man coverage this year and because they've done poorly with this type of coverage, we know they're going to continue to do it and the offense is going to be able to react to it really well. But not only does a lot of those splits, not only do a lot of those splits come from just, you know, a pattern emerging out of randomness and not real signal. But more importantly, that defense can then adjust. Everybody can adjust to that and see what you're seeing and that makes it not carry on into the future as much as we'd like for it to. I will say this like, you know, I don't even know what all this stuff means. I'm not a madden guy. I've never needed this stuff. If it's again, it's a lot of it's baked in. I know how to play DFS. That's my focus. And this does apply because it's built into it. It's just in the back end and someone like Alex who's doing the analytics and all

31:56this. I know Alex, we've had a good pairing back and forth. You guys can use code Blick or Blickle on DFS mastermind. If you want to learn how I play the game, but I can promise you, there's no too high shell rotate single high 13 per like all this stuff. We'll talk about its content, but I'm just playing based on game theory, leverage, contest selection, lineup selection, how to attack satellites, all that stuff and more. And you can literally get the seven hours of modules for 47 bucks. I think you get it for 37 if you use code Blick, the LICK. So you guys go to do you have us mastermind calm. This is me asking a thousand plus players how they play DFS and what they want to know. And then 10,000 plus hours of my experience all put into a course that you can take in one Saturday, nine to five shift basically and learn it all. And then if you want everything, you can always go up to the method later. But let's get back Alex. Let's go to where we need to go. I'm going to go to the stone 2.0. That is on ship at nation.com. That's the interactive version. I did just have it up. If you want the old stone, we still have it. That's that's right

32:57there for you. It's got all some people like to look at that. But I like the new interactive one poke holes in this. I've got it. I didn't even look at what our optimal was right now yet. But I'll let you have a look here. I've got Tyler Schuck, Jermere Gibbs, B. Jean. I don't know if it's going to really be like buyer and Tucker. I know in cash games, people are happily doing that. But that allows you to get Jamar chase. Olave, you can actually get her three two or sorry, the three one here with you've got Schuck, Olave Johnson, bring it back with Gibbs. And then you still get B. Jean and Jamar chase. You get the two raiders and then you can get the chargers D or the Jags D or whatever it is. I'm just throwing one version of it out there. But it's got to be something like this that you're seeing or at least thinking the same thing. Yeah. I mean, this is not a mini stack on the screen. But I do think the mini stack to avoid this week is probably Gibbs and Olave. You're just going to see a massive amount of those combinations. And like when you think of those two players, there's really not much correlation there at all. So sure you can get instances where the game goes off. But when the game goes off, you're

33:58going to want to line up like this that actually has the entire game stacked instead of just those two guys. So I do agree with a lot of this. I don't think B. Jean is going to be super chalky anymore now that it's Cooper rush. And like that's not to say that Tua is much better than Cooper rush. In fact, I was I was going to be all over the Steelers defense against Tua. Now they're going to be more popular. I don't think the Steelers defense is better because of Cooper rush. I thought I would have loved them against Tua. But for B. Jean, I think Cooper rush is a lot worse because we know how much Tua likes to target his running backs. So so yeah, I think I think B. Jean probably won't be in there. And that will open the door for for just probably like a single tight end. I don't see many people double double tight ending, especially with with such cheap tight ends. Like I think it is possible. But I do agree mayor is going to be insanely popular this week. So yeah, I think a lot of this I very much agree with. I certainly agree the chase

35:03is going to be really popular inside of Shuck stacks. Yeah, I think you're going to get double stacks with a lave and then I think we'll see plenty of a lay with Shuck, not just John Johnson. So I think it's probably okay to have the Johnson and mayor pairing here since we're saying what does a Shuck stack look like. But but yeah, I mean, Gibbs is going to be like one of the most popular plays at the entire season. I'm guessing because not only is this a phenomenal spot for him, he's in a great offense. So like, you know, the number one way that you can say, okay, how is how is this massive truck running back going to fail on any slate? It's well, the offense just doesn't have a ton of success. That's extremely unlikely for Detroit. The next thing is, okay, well, what if they just throw it all game? Okay, but Gibbs is massively involved in the passing game. And he also has, you know, he has the like Derek Henry explosive rushing side with the like prime Alvin Camero or receiving role. It's really, really hard for him to fail. So he's going to be insanely

36:06owned. But then not only is he that good of a play, but also pricing on the slate is so loose. It's so easy to fit him that yeah, I mean, I'm not going to be surprised if we see like 65% in single entries and high stakes. Yeah, one thing I will say just interesting on my end, but you know, early runs. I'm not doing anything official till Saturday night. It's what kind of when I start and I'm not really building till Sunday, but I will say with Meyer, getting like 85% of him, if you don't cap or don't do anything like he's 29 at the price, no bours, et cetera, et cetera. It doesn't matter if you don't, it'll put him with Tucker, it'll put him with genty. It like nothing matters. It will just play those guys. And it's still going into a lot of two tight end builds because it is wanting to put even like H and Gibbs, Jamar chase, Olave, like I'm showing here, like you still have 5,500 and pick a D like the jets or you can go back up to the Jags like we had in there earlier who are looking pretty popular and it's like you still have 46 hundred. You can move pieces around to, but I do think there is a lot that works that way where you could

37:09like boost up one more like if you didn't want to go Tucker, that's where I'm saying I think people could talk themselves into like a Jawan and now you have 4900 left at wide receiver. Again, not saying it's the chalk necessarily because there's other versions of it, but let's say see what happens if I take this to the jets who are also popular at 2500 will go down to them. Funny enough on different sites this week, you don't always bring this up, but it's like one site has the jets popular, one site, fandule, like people like the the Titans. So interestingly enough there, but I don't you do kind of land in some dead zones if it was Luther burden. I don't know. So it's tough to say, but I think at least from some standpoint, we're going to have to have the Gibbs conversation for sure. And then I also think there's something to be said for just the running back options this week. Like if you look, we've got Gibbs, Beige on Taylor, no one's talking about like cook, for example, but Chase Brown is interested. There's HM Barkley, Hampton, Henry, Jenty, like Swift, keep going down to ETN, Tutton, like there's Bucky Irving. So

38:09I guess let's start with the Gibbs conversation because that's the to be all end up. We know he's going in there, whether you like it or not. I had some, you know, uh, passion yesterday talking with Mayo on the show about this stuff because I just think people don't fully understand it at all times, but how are you treating the Gibbs situation? And where's your head at when it comes to that? Just plugging them in versus, you know, thinking strategically around him. My, my approach to Gibbs this week is going to be I want him in every lineup, but when I have combinations of other pricey guys where I can't fit him, I'm okay with the, with the fade as well. So that's what it's going to be for me. I, in no lineup, am I going to purposely say, okay, I'm going to try to leverage Gibbs here. The only way that I'm not using Gibbs is if I just need to not have that much salary spent on, uh, on running back. Yeah, one thing I was going to add to that. I feel the same way. So again, I let the, it's posted on my ex at toe tag in time. You can see the clip from yesterday. Mayo said I'm fired up, but it was just telling people again, like they decide like, oh, at that percentage, you're an idiot if you play him or they're like, at that percentage, you better get all in. Like I don't have to put my entire portfolio

39:12on this guy on 150 linux. Yes, you do have to make a decision when it comes to single entry. Like we focus on here, but I'm with you. I want to try and get him in there, not looking to just full on leverage him that way. And in large field stuff. Yes, I'll have some, you know, some golf with Gibbs. I'll have some golf. I'm in Raj, James and William's Laportna's. I'll go, I'll go after it in certain other tournaments, depending on the style. But overall, my thought process is that what I will say though, what's at least somewhat interesting is about that game. Um, if you look like years back now, and you know, I love a good sample. But it's like the under conceimingly hit a lot more than you think in week one, when people just assume like the totals mean everything to, and it's, it's they're still working with no daddy. Better than we are at figuring it out and exploiting it. But wasn't it like last year, every single game went under or something? I think it was like, if you had a bet all third like all 12 games, they all went under and maybe one went over or something. So I just think that someone interesting to and how much these teams from a DFS perspective can spread it out. Like it can be Gibbs. It can be a man, Ra, James and Williams, Laporta, golf. There's five guys on that side without

40:13going deep on the other side, Tislah on the other side, you've got Shuck, Olave and Juan Johnson. And then people think, Oh, well, that's kind of really it though. Well, ET and junior, you're cutting him out. He could definitely be in the mix on time. He catch passes even. And then also there's like the the wide receiver three wide receiver four like V. Lay is on the list of what people are even like getting different with. But then there's still the wide receiver three and four. What is it? Lance and forget the other guy's name is like Barry and Brown or something. But if those guys ended up, you know, in a stack like that, that would really set you different at a part. But it's like you're digging for that, the, you know, the diamond and the rough. Not saying I wouldn't think about it, but just noting it, there's tons of options. So if you're not on Gibbs, I think this one's a little more interesting where you don't have to immediately say, OK, then that means this. You could say, OK, that's like 20 points for golf, 18 points for Gibbs, 17 points for Almanra, James and William. Like you can actually have a scenario in this game where James William gets 24 and you still don't need golf. He's six K like you could

41:14just get the 24 of them and it's solid. And then Laporta's decent, but there's so many tight ends, et cetera, et cetera. So I think that's one way I'm thinking about it and then I'll kick it back to you on other stuff. And then the other thing was I've talked about this a ton in the past. But just slice and dice. And what I mean by that is the Detroit D is getting no love. There's the there's the cargers, the jahegs and now Pittsburgh even above them against Atlanta against rush. So to me, it's like why why not just play Gibbs with the Detroit D in some lineups. And it's not just that it pairs well and that it separates from those popular defenses at the bottom, while spending up spoiler alert might be a good idea. Sometimes it's spending up a defense who knows there on following there was data to figure that stuff out. But then on the other side, you know, shock, Olave and Johan Johnson are at least somewhat popular in some format. And it's not that the defense hurts them. It's that most of the lineups with them won't have that defense. So if you do have it, it's a way to get different with Gibbs, but also be against lineups differently than the way most Gibbs lineups feature at least Olave, if not more.

42:16But yeah, the the other point I want to make with Gibbs is like his ownership, how high he gets almost doesn't really matter to me. And this is something that like, you know, the new contestant that I've built in shameless plug here, but it's free this week with any DFS or all access subscriptions. So check out Blik Analytics dot com for that if you want to check out the contest. But one of the one of the big features in the contest is ownership sensitivity. So you can see how you how the lineup, you know, how the lineup expected Sim ROI changes based on that individual players ownership between Gibbs low end and his high end. So in in the one that I'm looking at right now between 38% and 46% is our why goes from 44% to 44.3 like it doesn't change. It's basically saying Gibbs role is not to make you different at all from the field. It's just to preserve the advantage that everyone else in your lineup gives you and he does that better than any other option on the slate by far. You know, contrast that

43:16with someone like Ted McMillan in this lineup at 8% plus 54% at 12% only plus 41%. So you're losing a really good chunk of expected Sim ROI in a way that you don't with Gibbs because it doesn't really matter how popular he gets his role is not to help you separate from the field at all. It's purely to preserve the advantage the rest of your guys get and he does that whether he's at 40% 60% 70% it just doesn't matter like his role doesn't change and he's so likely to succeed. You know, it'd be one thing if he was like a dairy canry or a sake one Barclay and you could get certain game strips where he just doesn't have that much of a chance to succeed. But it like nothing about how this game can play out outside of Gibbs getting injured is a scenario in which like you would expect him to not do really really well. And so for me, that's why like he's he's someone I would like to include in every lineup. I'm not going to purposely fade him at any point in time. But if I need a lineup that has like, you know, only $12,000 combined from my running backs, then I'm going

44:18to be okay with not playing Gibbs. Yeah, I'll use the stone for this because you have your GPP scores. We have the optimal leverage where we're running the 10,000 simulations almost like a data driven simulation up against our partner, Saber Sam, where we can then figure this out. I think a lot of people struggle with that. You just said it perfectly and you were saying for both things. So it works out. But like you might have a negative GPP score on Gibbs. But that's not his job in that lineup anyway. So it doesn't matter. And that's what I try and tell people if we have Gibbs to be optimal on 10,000 simulations, he's showing up on 31 over 3,100 of those lineups as the on the optimal. Yeah, he's but but but Tango. He's negative eight and a half leverage. Yeah, like against his potential ownership, he's going to be a little bit over owned in that sense. But that doesn't mean you can't play him and it doesn't mean you shouldn't play him. It's where else are you finding like I don't have too many guys that you're going to find across the board. If you're a member, you can go look it up. But I don't have too many people that are going to be 30% optimal on 10,000 simulations. So it's like if that helps finish out your lineup and or

45:21starting point of your lineup. And then you know, you got to get different around it. I think that's definitely the first interesting way to look into any other ways to leverage Gibbs. If not, we kind of are at that point of the show now anyway, we can go through by just, you know, quickly looking at quarterbacks. The way we did it last year was like you can tell by the quarterback what route people are kind of going. You're always going to see spread out ownership. Even your Daniel Jones was 8.5 last year. That doesn't tell the whole story because Jonathan Taylor was like 30 points plus 30 plus your other guys with them were 5% or less. The rest of it tells the story. If you look at Herbert, I'm just going to use this as a quick example and I'll sort my team and then you go down to chargers. And these are early ownership projections, but like lad getting a little bit, Quentin getting a little bit. Yes, people are probably playing them together in some cases, of course, in stack them. But that's just one example. Now you go back up here. Who else did I have Tyler, Tyler, Tyler, Shock, we already looked at this. Well, if we sort that by team and I'll do it easier way, go to the Saints here. Well, you're getting a $3,500 guy at almost the same

46:21ownership as the, you know, the 6K version of almost McCockey being just shy of 6K. And then you're getting a 22% a lot of it. As we showed you, that's just contrasting the chalk build versus that. How do you want to look at this as some ways to leverage on this slate? I just think some of the conversation like Tyler Murray, I guess would be an example and we put Justin Jefferson on the thumbnail. Yeah, he's 8.6. He's your example. So this is a prime example, a little bit different pricing, of course. But you go look at your wide receiver. You had Pittman last year at 5%. Well, what are we getting Justin Jefferson? You know, 12 ish. Maybe it's up, maybe that's right. But I'm just saying it's not 22. It's not 21. It's not 30. If you were to use Hawkinson instead of your Tyler Warren last year, and that might even make up a little bit of the money from the difference, 3% that he's showing up at and he's showing up optimal 7.7% of the time. So if you are going that route, depending on what you want to do, I'm just saying running that type of stack is interesting. I think another interesting thing would be then looking at, okay, what can I do within that stack? By the way, inside Minnesota, you know, pretty good offense. You posted on X last

47:25night. I follow everything. You know, I still see the tidbits out there, but it was like it's kind of unfair having Kevin O'Connell up against Green Bay in this spot. And you guys were chatting a little bit about that on X. Well, if that's the case, and they do come out of the gates and start figuring this stuff out, well, it's if you look at Green Bay, let me switch this here for a second, and go, Marshawn Lloyd is looking decent, but no one's playing value running backs this week. So that's something. And then you go to wide receiver and go, okay, what are these guys looking like? And this is why I like having this just so easy to reference. It's they're not really popping at high optimal rates, but like Watson, Reed, Golden, they're all okay, but they have decent projections in some ceiling, but they're ones that people are talking about, but they're not able to click these guys. It just doesn't fit the roster construction style. So where do you want to go with this? That's just a couple of ways I like to show it off, but how are you thinking about leveraging the chalk build this week? Some other thoughts you've got there? Yeah, the first thing I will say on the on the charger stuff, I have QJ at 18% and and lad at 16%. So I don't think they're

48:28going to be quite the pivot, but my general theme of like, okay, how do I want to leverage the chalk build this week? How do I want to get different? It's pretty much like entirely through the stack, whatever stack you choose. I think that's the best way to get different this week. And the point that I'll make here, or the way I'll make this point, I should say is like, think of the running backs on this slate. If you wanted to play, for example, Derek Henry and Sequon Barclay at running back. So you don't want to play Gibbs, you want to play Henry and Sequon, think about what you need for that decision to pay off. It's not just about Henry and Barclay doing well. Of course, need them to do well, but you also then need Gibbs to not do like extremely well, right? If you get 120 yards and two touchdowns from Henry and 140 in the touchdown from Sequon, that's great, but it's not great if Gibbs goes for 142 scores and also adds five receptions for 60 yards, because then you're going to wish you had Gibbs instead of at least one in them anyway. So it's harder, I think, to get different in an effective way at running back this week, because

49:33my goodness, like it's just so likely that Gibbs succeeds. Whereas from the receiver position, there are, you know, if Jefferson separates from Chase, for example, none of us are going to be surprised. If T Higgins has a better game than Jamar Chase, it's a little bit surprising, but like that happens all the time in Cincinnati games. So I think there are just, it's a much cleaner route to try and get different at the wide receiver position this week, because the high end guys, so like, let me bring this up for a second, like I have Chase at 22.4 for his projection. I've Gibbs at 25.8. That's a pretty meaningful difference. I've got Gibbs, 78.7% chance to finish top 10 at the running back position, Chase at 55.5% to finish top 10 at the wide receiver position. It's just a different range of outcomes for these guys. And so for me, like the way that I want to attack this slate, the way I want to leverage this slate is through this stack, whatever that stack may be.

50:37Yeah, I got to call this out too. I think it's just always interesting to me to think about this, but and week one, not so much because you get all these values. So I get it. But like if Jamar Chase truly hits his ceiling in this in this slate, on this slate with all those wide receivers, we've got behind. I'm just looking at the rest like Olave. I'm a Amon Ra, Zay, Garrett Wilson, T Higgins. Like there's a ton here. And then you go and look and Joe Burrow is, you know, barely owned versus the rest around him. T Higgins moderately owned. You got the other side of that game. You got some injuries actually to the secondary of Cincinnati. You still have the good total and all that. But like then where do you have your guy from last year at Buka and Godwin? Like are they real? I don't know, you have a map. I like just looking around the industry, trying to see a couple spots here to see what we've got. I mean, maybe it's like closer to eight when we get there. Maybe a Buka gets a little bit more of a boost. I don't know what what do you got these guys that I'm seeing them like 5, 8, 6, 7, like they're they're not really getting crazy ownership. Baker's not getting crazy ownership either,

51:38by the way. So just flipping the build and going Baker with a Buka, Godwin and Chase and just using up all your running and using up all of your wide receiver slots. That's a way I could look at leveraging because you're still using the popular receiver that you just said's going to appear almost 60% of the time in those top wide receivers. But what would make him move? What would make that happen? And so obviously you could do it the other way. You could have burrow Chase Higgins with with Godwin or at Buka. You could have no Chase and play Higgins and just Rob, Rob Jamar to pay T. It's like you people say Rob Peter to pay Paul. It's like that. That's all you're when people do that. They again, consciously. It's like when I said earlier, they're not playing Jamar or Jalen Hertz. And like, well, I don't like Philly, but they're they're you're saying you don't like Jalen Hertz because you didn't put them in your lineup or you must think he's not the guy. Well, I don't necessarily think that, but you didn't play him. So you don't think he's the guy or you'd play him. So it's the same concept here. If you are giving it to T and saying I want like a burrow T Higgins like Buka, just run it single stack with a run back and you're like, okay,

52:42I'm good with that. Then you're kind of saying that T Higgins might just eat the lunch of Jamar Chase and you whether you see it on the screen, you're probably not physically changing the projection. You should be, but if you're not, I get it. You're just saying that's how the game is going to go. And then you can get a little bit more of a balanced bill. But give me more thoughts on that, I guess. Like I see I see those ownership on those bucks. Yeah, I mean, I've got 12% on Bucky, 5% on Buka, 8% on Godwin. And I love this point that you're making here because also like when you think about, okay, game stacking Cincinnati Tampa Bay, the number one thing people are going to say is, okay, but that's really expensive, right? Burrow 69. And then you've got Chase at 78 Higgins at 63. Okay, but look at the look at the most popular, you know, game stack on the slate. It's probably golf at six. So a bit of a bit of savings at the quarterback position. But then people are going to pay 8,000 for Gibbs. They're going to go on top of that pay 75 for same brown and 67 for a larvae. Maybe they'll save a little bit with going to Jamison at 6000 instead of, you know, one of those big

53:44three, but, but there's going to be plenty, plenty of ownership and salary spent in that game. It's really not more expensive to get Cincinnati Tampa in a really intriguing way. And I, I think you told me the ownership was exactly the same on both of those game stacks. I think I'd prefer Cincinnati Tampa Bay anyway. So given the fact that we're getting a meaningful ownership discount, since he Tampa Bay is definitely my preferred like expensive game stack. I don't know if I want to spend that much on a game stack. I think there are some really cheap routes we can go this week as, as I let them talking about, but, but I think, I think if, if I was paying up a furry game stack, it would 100% to be through Cincinnati and Tampa instead of Detroit, New Orleans. Yeah, this is what it's all about. This show is for looking at, you know, how can we leverage a chocolate? Let's do this quick. I love this expert. You know, we can use this right off the screen and get some extra information, but 28,200 does it again, this can be off slightly, but it's 81.1 points and 91.5. This is our initial ownership. It's just to show up, but it's 28,

54:45two 81. So call it 28, 81, 92. Okay. Now you go back here. I'm going to the boroside, even just, and I'm going to do apples to apples too, just because I want to kind of see roughly. I'll even do like, I'll even do like a, let's go, let's go Higgins chase and then either, I think Godwin will probably be more popular as the bring back than, than a bokeh. I do too. So it's about seven points off, way less owned, and, but by the way, you've got a couple grand left to spend basically. Yeah. Now, honestly, this is, I not already does this and I get it, but I want to show something else too. This is just another way to do it. Even if you went apples to apples, I know people don't like stacking their run in. By the way, Joe, Joe Burrow and Chase Brown had a lot of successful games together last year. This is, you know, this is what's so funny too is like about, I'll go to do two things in a second because I want to show both ways, but just to show you this, we're getting closer to the money, but we can get almost

55:45exact money. So I want to, I want to see this too. And just so you guys know, the Godwin projection, it's easier if I go by price here. How much does Godwin again this week 52? So he's 11.8 right now for us. We've got a bokeh 13. I'm just going to do this. So at basically the same money, still way less owned the other one was 43 60 less. This is 4400. We're about five points off. But for that, you're almost cutting the ownership in half. And this is like apples to apples. You can still play Gibbs, by the way, for whatever you're worried about in the other lineup, this that and the other. I'm just trying to show like maximum version of this and what you can do. And then this is another thing I want to show quickly, because I don't think people are stacking the quarterback and running back enough together 69 and 7100. And I know it's different. I'll wait and everyone to rant and rave about it in the chat, but it doesn't matter to me because it doesn't really not going to affect my gameplay. But I don't like that at all. I know you don't, but I'm saying like nobody ever does. But it's only because it's typically, I will say,

56:47and you're a Philly guy, it's your home team and all that, but it's almost always because they cannibalize each other at the goal line with the push push. That's the number one thing people say about it. There's probably that's not it for me. For me, the way Philly, Delphi, is defended is is so much more extreme than most teams were like, you know, most teams are just out there playing defense. Again, it's Philly. Most teams make a decision. They're either going to try and take away the single high looks where Philly can get exposed from the passing game or they're trying to take away the running game. And so what we've seen over the last few years, over and over and over again is there's either a team playing defense like Kansas City did in the Super Bowl or like Minnesota did last year where the sequence is not going to be able to run the ball, but Hertz is going to be able to find chunk play after chunk play through the passing game or it's the opposite. And, you know, like two years ago when SafeOne just broke record after record and had massive, you know, these long runs after long run. Why was he given that much space? Because he faced like a significantly

57:52lower amount of stacked boxes and single high looks than Derek Henry did who was doing the exact same thing on the ground even to a lesser extent because teams didn't want to give Hertz Devonte and AJ Brown those single high looks. So to me, that's where the inverse correlation comes more so than the Tush push because with the Tush push, like you can make the obvious case, okay, well, what a Philly just scores, you know, 35 points and there's enough for both to go around. Right. It's about how the offense is actually performing based on what the defense is giving them. And from that standpoint, they've been insanely, insanely inversely correlated, like probably more so than any other quarterback running back combo in the league. Yeah, that's why you won't get it a lot. But I think again, it just goes back to the same stuff for all that that you just said, which is right, correct, good and awesome means nothing on one any given slate like on this weekend. I guess my point is more it's to me. It's about like price factors. I know last year, Mayo and Squirrel argued with me about this on like a thing was like Justin Fields and Swift or or like whatever. I forget what the pairing was. It was like, there's no way these guys hurt each other too much. It's

58:53like the price. It's 13,500 dollars. If this team puts up 35 points this weekend against Washington. And by the way, Washington, I don't even know if they can keep up. So this might just be like a ground and pound slug type game. But even then that could work in the favor of this because it could just be hurts with Tish Bush and the other quarterbacks kind of put up their 20. He gets the 30. And then and Saquon could put up equal to Gibbs lineups where most are going to have like hurts and Gibbs and then a punt. It's like, there's just my point being this is not my leverage lane. This is not my way. It's just funny when people would look at certain things like the burrow and chase brown one. And last year we saw it with Caleb and Swift or Manungai a bunch. We saw it. It's not to compare to this one. I'm moving off this now. I'm just saying more about the quarterback with running back. It's it's not talked about enough and it's almost frowned upon no different. By the way, which is funny. And I mentioned earlier, I know it's in your roster construction data. And I've used this to my advantage a ton in cues and satellites and all these factors with the pay up defense. Everyone thinks it's good to punt the deep in a winner take all or in

59:55a large field tournament. You are going to need ceiling and the punt these rarely put up ceilings for that. Now, well, if as long as they get me eight points for two grand, I'm good. Not always. No, it's not how it works. And as the pricing gets tighter as the season goes on, then it becomes even more likely that people punt the defense. And at least then I get why, right? But when you have the free week, the free world to work with here. And you say I got all these options at every single position. You're going to need the defense that puts up 30 plus points or 20 plus points, whatever the big number is this week. Could it be a punt? Of course, anything's possible. Ask my friend Kevin Garnett. But if you are going to play for a ceiling, typically the ceiling outcomes from come from the big boy defenses. And I think there was a couple different big sample size studies done on that as well. Yeah, we I think we've already talked plenty about Gibbs, but I do want to make one more point because someone in the chat has brought up the same point twice here, which is like four x for Gibbs. So four x is all right, 32 points. And there are two things I want to say here. First is getting to four x four out of

1:01:0017 games. It's almost 25%. That's a really good clip. So I don't totally understand why that's being used as like an argument against using him here. That's a really, really good ceiling rate. More importantly, though, I don't like the use of four x. And so even on on my site, like I've got a value column, it is not at all a multiplier because multiplier like four x for Gibbs is so insanely more valuable than four x for Michael Mayer, for example, like the if if you're going to use any type of multiplier, the one additional step that makes it significantly more useful is think about just the raw points ahead of like two and a half x or even you could stretch it to three x. So there, right, like if you let's say just for simplicity six here, you're going to use three x. All right, three x is 24. So now how many points above 24

1:02:05is 32 eight, right? So four x is eight points better than three x for Michael Mayer down it like almost, you know, at less than $3,000, you know, if he were to go four x, that's only what three three points ahead of of three x or something like that. So it's just it's not a good way to measure his impact to the slate. And again, like I've already made the point that I really like Gibbs, but I think that maybe helps explain why because the the the benefit you're going to get from like even three and a half x from Jamir Gibbs is way more than even four and a half x from, you know, some of the the 5k running backs or something like that. So I just wanted to make that final point. Yeah, there's just so many more factors to it. You can you again, I was talking about Rob Peter to pay Paul. I used the joke earlier like Rob Jamir to pay T like you can you can get it from other places like we saw lineups win the millie last year with four raiders. Remember the week, a trade Tucker scored like 40. Remember that? And it was Jacobi Myers before he got traded

1:03:12to the Jags and the lineup had the quarterback Myers, Tucker and Bowers and Bowers had like 16 and and Myers had like nine. They weren't even like two x their salary or maybe two and a half x, but your guy Tucker who made it all work. It was just like look, they're going to throw it to three guys and it's going to be these three. So I'm putting them together and I'll just take whatever I get from all of them in that block. So it's like that's another way that people aren't thinking, but I will say of note, this is something I've worked on in my own game. So what maybe you can apply it to week one for yourself. It's that there is just so many options when the pricing is this loose that I know people like to run, you know, a four man stack with a run back and they're like, yeah, at least if the game goes that way, I got it all, but like that's an example where let's say you get the Gibbs fade right and you're like, I'm going to go with golf, almond rot, Jameson Williams and LaPorta. Well, if LaPorta gets 12 and Jameson Williams gets 16 and almond rot gets 17 and golf gets 20 and Gibbs only gets like 15 and you're like,

1:04:18bam, I did it. I knew he wasn't going to come through. I got the stack. It's like, no, you're destroyed because there's a stack out there that's cost less and has a guy with like 25, 25, 21 and 18 and you're like not even close to the money, even though you got the Gibbs fade wrong. And by the way, there's actually a chance they could buy product of entire rustic construction. They could be sitting with a 15 point Gibbs in their lineup because they got some explosion from Aaron Rogers, DK Metcalf, Pittman and whoever else. And it's like, oh my gosh, how I would have never got to that lineup. And they could just fit Gibbs and the 15 to 18 that you think he failed with still ended up on the winning lineup because you're not, you know, I do take down right down every Monday, you're typically 30 to 50 away from the optimal that you'll see. Some weeks people get really close, but not always. So that's just something to note. Yeah, that's another thing that I've really kind of noticed just from using the the contisims over at Epic Analytics so far is one of the categories you see when you evaluate any lineup is stack dependence. And so essentially what this is saying is when your stack

1:05:23performs and the stack includes quarterback any any wide receivers running backs tight ends on his team and any bringbacks. When the stack performs between the 50th and 80th percentile, what's your ROI like when the stack performs between the 60th and the 90th. So like you're getting very good outcomes in that in that section. What is your ROI like? And then finally in the 70th through 100th percentile. And I've been really, really surprised to see just how much of the overall lineup's ROI is packed into that final like 90th to 100th percentile of outcomes for the stack itself. And so one, you know, the way that or I should say the take away there for me is I really want to be focusing my lineups on the stacks. I want to prioritize the stack itself and then everything else kind of just flows from there. But how can I make sure that I'm playing stacks that not only Simwell, not only project well, but how do I feel about them? Do I really believe that they

1:06:23have the type of upside that the Sim is seeing and you know that the projections are seeing, can I see the game actually breaking in the way that it needs to for the stack to have that upside? And so that's again going to be like, you know, my main focus this week I already said like that's the number one way I'm trying to think through leveraging the the chalk builds is just okay, how can I beat the chalk build by getting a either a better stack or a stack that opens up more because it's cheaper. And you know, the important thing there is like if you have a really cheap stack, the you know, the 70th to 100 percent percentile outcome might actually be a little bit easier to get to because you're not running into the issue where you know, your your wide receivers are starting to cannibalize each other, right? Like if if you get a massive game from Jamison Williams, for example, that probably makes it harder for Amon Rossane Brown because that means Jamison Williams might have a long touchdown or two and that takes volume potential away from Amon Rossane Brown, if you have like a really cheap stack, even let's go to the the chargers like Ladd at 5900,

1:07:27Quentin Johnson at 4700, they're not cannibalizing each other in the way that QJ or not QJ that Jamison and Amon Ross are. So it's easier for the stack itself to get to that 90th percentile outcome. Right. And I think there's other things we can look at. Is there any other like game stacks or you know, we we talked about this last year on this show? Is there any other game stacks you're looking to to play fade and he thoughts with late swap like any any other additional ads you can have as people know, it's you know, really about putting together the entire puzzle and not about the picks in the plays. Those that like I say, they always end up becoming important. There are results of the process, but we're kind of building through it and seeing what we can get to. I was checking this out just at a curiosity. This one's about what is it? 12 points off what we looked at earlier, about $3,000 cheaper. It still uses up all of your spots. It's it's really intriguing to me for a couple reasons. One, it only uses chase. But if you look here, Baker is also squeezed between and I know it's squeezed is such a light term here because every like quarterback

1:08:29gets spread out, but golf and everything that goes with him. Herbert and like you said, even higher ownerships than we thought on some of these guys like QJ and and Maconkey as the week goes on. Tyler Schuck just down below it. So he's right there in the middle Trevor Lawrence would be another candidate for this because Trevor Lawrence, I think people think is super popular, but then I don't hear anybody really talking about playing Brandon Stranger Parker. While like Parker Washington's getting mentioned a bunch, I don't see the ownership translating to personally. People are playing the Jags D and just you're expecting that to be the thing. So if the Jags D's turn in the ball over, are you expect, I mean, I guess you're hoping that they're just running it in the box every time and you're good to roll with that. But if you're expecting them to turn the ball over and give some good field position to Trevor Lawrence, I think that is somewhat interesting. But just to me, like when you see something like this, I haven't even got to running back yet. But obviously, you know, likely to put Gibbs in, but also Gibbs is right here in the spirit of golf. I'm using Jamar Chase and those guys. So I don't really need to think about, um, since he or Tampa Bay at all, but who am I not using? I'm not going to build the whole lineup. But I'm just

1:09:31thinking about this. I'm probably not going to Meyer here as much as he would give me more ceiling boost because I just think Gibbs and Meyer together, even though they're not associated at all, I think is going to be a very common pairing. And so I'm just looking at situational stuff. But what else can I do to get different? Well, now is where I might start thinking about, okay, um, I like Colston, Loveland, or I like, okay, can I get now with 42? Let me just test this. I'm only testing. May not fit. But, you know, I run out of money pretty quickly. If I try and go up too crazy, right? Like that, that's a bit aggressive. So this is how I look through it, though. It's honestly how I think about it. And then I'll go down and say, okay, what other running back? Do I like here? Okay. Um, you know, if we were looking through some of the stuff early, we talked about the Saquon get me in the mix here. And then, you know, what does that look like if I go down to the cheaper D, maybe I can get away with it with the jets. Well, now I've got 3750 for a flex and a tight end. You can still make changes to it. But I guess my point would be it's more looking at like when you're on a lineup, what are you not on and who are you not accounting for and why? If you

1:10:35have good reason, you're just like, well, that's just going to be a game that gets spread out. Like, like you guys know my, for those that do follow long term, about never my homes when it was so spread out. It's like I was never worried about it because I couldn't figure it out. I didn't want to dedicate 100% of my lineups to it. And most people didn't, therefore it would never happen. And he was never really on the milliamaker winners for main slates because it was so spread out. So I just didn't feel like I was missing much there. That's what I'm thinking. Can you do something with this lineup for a second? Can you take out Saquon and the jets? Yep. So what I what I love about this start here is it's going to be very difficult for actually there are two things all about this. It's going to be very difficult to do a burrow double where you also get your mark where you also get your mere Gibbs. So this is going to give you access to that game where you can then still comfortably fit Gibbs. But the second thing this does is this gives you access to now like two really good game environments, right? Where there's a run out for the Detroit

1:11:37New Orleans game to hit as a whole in the sense that you do get a high scoring fast pace game, which is another you know point in Gibbs favor like New Orleans boost up on in play volume. Another reason why I think we should have a better you know outlook for him than just what he typically did last year, even the last year was already insanely good. But but now like you can have Gibbs soak up a lot of that where if Gibbs goes for let's say 40 drafting points, it's going to be really hard for you know, I'm on rod of hit. It's going to be harder for for golf to hit. It's going to be harder for Jamison to hit for sure. And now you can get the other game environment that hits in a big way and you get the passing upside from that. So I think major point here being you're you're not just going cheaper in the Cincinnati Tampa Bay game because it's it's nicer to have you know those savings and then you can go spend those on whatever you know, spin ups you want. It's like you're very purposely doing it for Gibbs. You're doing that because the the other way to do Cincinnati Tampa

1:12:37Bay makes it really hard to pair them with Gibbs. So you're getting a unique combination of access to this entire game stack plus Gibbs. And then you're also doing it in a way where you know, you're you're kind of helping the Cincinnati Tampa Bay stack separate from the Detroit New Orleans passing versions of that stack. So I really like this shell and just wanted to talk through like the the way that this shell is is really good more so than just oh, it still projects really well and you saved money. Can you talk me through one quick thing you kind of hit on it earlier, but now I think this is a better way when we have a real life example with your stuff over a Blick analytics like the example of like ownership sensitivity and like what you're seeing with an option like this. Eguca versus Godwin if someone said hey, I like what you're saying Alex, but I got to go back to the single stack here because then I think I can do a little bit more with a different tight end, a lower price wide receiver. Maybe they can get a combo in there like a a loved one and a cocker or something. It's not because it's a second week you talked about this a ton last year. It's not even that it's like just jam a secondary stack to jam it. It's like I

1:13:41like Loveland in a vacuum. I like cocker in this spot. I think that could make sense and I'm interested in that game. How would you go about figuring out from your perspective if you did have to select just one, what would your process breakdown be to say Eguca or Godwin or does it even matter? That's what I'm trying to figure out. Well, the first way that I'll answer this question is I'm pretty much always going to double stack. So I think if you were choosing between these receivers, then I'd want to either add I personally like I don't want Kate Ahten, but if you want to go with the bet that Cincinnati is just as bad this year against tight ends as they were last year, I think he's playable. But more likely I would just put Bucky Irving in this stack as well. And I'd probably go Bucky and Godwin. And this one for me is less about projection or roster construction. And this one is just purely less your Cincinnati was a really, really difficult opponent for wide receiver ones because DJ Turner on the outside is really good. And Ebuca is much more likely to get that matchup all game long than Godwin. So I'll just let Godwin and Bucky kind of

1:14:44soak up all the usage instead. And I think they're like at least I'm telling a pretty clear story of how they're being defended and how they find success as a team. Yeah, I was trying to see here. What was the news on DJ Turner? I thought we saw something about him. Did he end up practicing yesterday? I believe so, but okay, so added to injury report, injury watch hamstring practices Friday, DJ Turner will play versus. Well, I just now was going to go, yeah, we got it. Okay, so yeah, that there you go. I was going to say that could have been interesting, but this would make a ton of sense. He he locks that down. And then now, like I say, you've opened up a lot more room. I'm not saying you have to go jets. I'm just using the popular version for the spirit of time. And I'm not closing out the entire lineup. But if we go to the jets here, where were they? Now you're talking while you do this, I'll also say like no McMillan for for Tampa is really interesting because it definitely concentrates the the target share among these receivers. But also like, you know, I don't

1:15:44I don't love to target a stack when they're missing a key receiver because like, you know, sure, they're it is an easier to predict where the success is going, but like that quarterback is now less likely to have a great game because he's missing one of his key players. At least in this scenario, you're kind of just taking a step sideways from McMillan to Ted Hearst or Ted Johnson, whoever they're going to use, you know, to fill that rotation. So Bakers that look isn't really changed. You're only getting the the added benefit of having a better chance of guessing where that production is actually going to come from. Yeah, I agreed. I like that call. All right. I'm going to delete that. I'll say quickly and then we'll go to our leverage lane. But just some of the stuff, I guess we did. Like I mentioned, Lawrence stuff, the Lamar Jackson stuff is interesting, not no homer for that one for me. It's just noting it. Like I think Zay is a bit overlooked. I think the Indie guys think that's indoors. We've seen I know Ravens new coach and whatnot, but when you think about from the week one Raven sample sizes, they like to come out hot and then disappear when it becomes playoff time. But if Lamar is truly healthier like he's supposed to be in looks and

1:16:47showing up early and doing all the stuff and then you get the factor of, you know, his price still being really fair for this slate. We have all the value in the world. It's not really about salary. To me, he's 6,800. You know, that's another thing where I might I might play Lamar and then immediately jump in with say, Juan Barclay and the reason what the hell does that have to do with any well, if I'm paying up a quarterback and most people are either going to burrow Lamar or hurts or I might play Lamar and then think about Chase Brown or think about say, Juan Barclay or boat like you could do stuff like that and whether or not correlated at all, it's it's could be considered separation and leverage from a DFS perspective because when you're on Lamar, you're not on burrow and you're not on hurts and I don't really want again, anything can get there, but I don't really want $7,800 Jamar Chase standalone. I'd kind of want him more to need that back and forth game that either really helps his quarterback for just a hundred bucks more. So that's what I was saying earlier. This is actually a prime example for me around my stuff out of like I'm saying it's not going to be

1:17:47Joe burrow here because why wouldn't I just spend a hundred bucks if I thought it could be there is stuff to that like if you went with here's an example this week, what who plays is it Miami and Las Vegas, right? Yes, yes. So you could play Kirk Cousins, Trey Tucker and Michael Meyer, but I might just play Malik Willis, Trey Tucker and Michael Meyer because for 300 bucks more, I want Malik Willis over, oh, but he doesn't match up with her quarterback, you're right, but he might have more points in running yardage and touchdowns near the end zone than Kirk Cousins has for the first X amount of games he gets allowed to play. So it's just a note where I'm thinking about stuff like that sometimes too, but in this case, I would think about it like where I'm saying that so I might immediately say look if I do think it's not going to be burrow is it because I want Chase Brown to steal that thunder or do I like Bucky Irving on the other side and say it's going to be you know it's going to be more of a Tampa Bay game and that's the setup that I see happening there and it's

1:18:48not that he's pushing him, it's just Tampa Bay rolls and Bucky's part of it. So you can look at all different situational stuff, but that's all I got for today, Alex, before we get to our leverage lane, anything else you want to add for the week before we go at what we're doing in single entry. Leverage lane time. Right, man, I'll let you go first. I got a couple options here. So I'll let you know what I do have one additional thing. I think we wanted to talk through a bit more on on contest selection and you know I think a lot of people probably remember from last year that I'm somebody who really likes to just play one lineup at a time and I had made decision at least to start the season that I'm going to play multiple linups and I'm going to let the contests available dictate how many linups I play and so you know since satellites are such a big part of my my overall DFS process so like you know I'm going into the lobby and I'm saying okay how many how many 70 or 75 dollar satellites are there to get into these mega tickets all right to get into these mega and like as of now there's only there's a there's a 70 dollar

1:19:53showdown mega for 1012 and then there's a 75 dollar just general you know main slate mega. So for me okay I'm probably playing two linups right now maybe maybe I could turn that into saying okay this is actually a week where I'm just going to play one since there those are two different contest different tickets so like I I would love to win both at a time and it would be just as valuable to win both at a time as it would be you know to or I should say like each one each ticket one there would be just as valuable as each other whereas if you if I win two tickets at a time into the you know into the showdown mega it's not equally valuable to have two linups as it is one someone it's so forth so I might end up just playing one but I didn't want to make that note at the jump and and just kind of I think reiterate because you know that's been such a big part of leverage lane is this discussion and we know we're going to have a lot of new viewers this week so I think we did want to just kind of touch on how we're making the decision and so like

1:20:57reiterating the point that for me why do I like to keep the number of linups that I play to close to a minimum it's for me that I feel like I can do a much better job of building one lineup extremely well or two or three then if I were to try to you know build 20 at a time or something like that yeah I think that's a good call I will say just on a counter of something I've talked about in the past I wrote an article on X about this a while ago for a skilled player like yourself that knows the game quite well knows your personal game quite well it's almost like again you and I know people that don't know that you're also a professional golfer you you play golf at a very high level so it's like you are you can figure out your own schedule you know what works for you your body what you prefer how you warm up how you do it like you you figure all that stuff out you're doing the same in DFS I think it goes the other way for some DFS players where they say hey I see this $5 million like that's a chance to change my life let me jump in and do this thing and it's like you're still playing a very high variance game if you don't usually play $750 and use an optimizer well it is a great chance to win a million dollars for 750 bucks how great is that

1:21:59chance actually and are you playing it just because you saw a million bucks up top versus you're doing it for your own reasons and knowing your own game to say here's what my best skill set is here's my best way to attack it and while I typically play one team I think I could also do it this way instead and then give myself more opportunities to achieve the ultimate end goal which is to make as much money doing what you do as possible which you can apply across from start to finish some people are just choosing that based on oh this contest looks good and that's a good payload structure all right how often do you play 20 max or how often you play a hundred dollar single entry well usually don't but gonna try it out this week all right well that's not a good reason to do it that way I don't know if you have any rebuttal on that but just want to note it yeah I agree with it I don't have anything to add there Eric asked a good question why I think it's more valuable to have tickets to two separate contests for being able to have two into one the main point here is just like again since this is somewhat just personal preference since I am already very comfortable building

1:23:03one lineup at a time it feels like if I have if I have one lineup into two separate megas I have two distinct chances whereas if I have two into one it feels less like I have two chances to win and more like I have one chance to win with two lineups if that makes sense and so it's for like let's use a baseball analogy it's like I'm getting two full at bats instead of just two pitches in the same at bat something like that so part of that too is like the way that you build the two lineups when you're in just that one contest and you have two chances in it and so you know that's that's certainly an argument for building universally correlated lineups or at least differentiated lineups when you have two chances and not just treating it like a single entry where you're just changing out like oh I've got the same same lineup except for I'm not really sure about which cheap wide receiver one off I want to use so when one lineup will use trade Tucker and the other are all used on tavy and wicks and that'll be the only difference between the lineups or something like that I think it makes sense when you have two chances to actually differentiate them in a big

1:24:08way but but yeah that's that's why to me is I like feeling like I have the two distinct chances where it's it's an entirely different process and you know a big a big point there is like you can have two very differentiated lineups but maybe you don't have Derek Henry and maybe Derek Henry breaks off 270 or touchdown runs it's like if you don't have Derek Henry you just have no chance whereas if you're in two distinct meh as with with one ticket to each like one players massive outlier game can't kill both of your chances and so that I think that's probably a pretty full explanation of why man my mind is just going right now so now we can't end it we can never end a show quick because it all you and I can talk for hours on this we love this show for that reason because like two good friends just being able to riff back and forth and a couple things you said there one the personal preference factor is huge you don't know how many people I talked to dfs players that are you know getting mentorship or learning or getting better at the game and trying to learn and say oh man I won like 20 tickets into this $5 millimaker and you know I got

1:25:10no clue I never use an optimizer I only play single entry like this is blowing my mind it's crazy what do I do well you shouldn't play satellites into that if it's not your game like you said like you're playing satellites directly into your best skill set and game and the way you know how to handle it so that is what you should be thinking about when you're out there if you're not going to play it accordingly if you win the ticket or not going to feel comfortable playing this on a totally different topic of what you blew my mind with there so that's one point for sure it's personal preference but you're allowed to choose what satellites you play in so don't play in ones if you're not going to be comfortable for what you're about to get into secondly the best I've never heard that one by the way it was phenomenal of like two separate at bats versus one with two pitches and I want my mind goes to something different I want to elaborate on it but I will tell you this if you're going to take those two pitches swing for the fences on both because the stats don't care if you strike if you have a strike on the first and a home run on the second one it's a home run it doesn't matter because you hit the home run so make sure you're playing it don't you know go to bunter with the

1:26:12first lineup and then swing for a home or swing for a home run come up short and then go to bunter like your first line up versus your second line like you've got to be swinging for the fences when other people have 22 it ties together what we talked about earlier in something like a mega if you've got only and I'm saying only I'm congrats if you have seven tickets to a hundred dollar mill you did a phenomenal job getting those seven tickets those are hard to win so I'm meaning like that's congrats but it's also there's going to be people that have 150 and lots of them so like you've got to play all those for the fences because this is your chance so don't just saddle up and say well I kind of got in for like a hundred bucks so long as I can turn this 700 bucks into something no this is your chance to change everything you need to get there so do something from that perspective and then lastly I'll give a little bit of a thought process just on your point and I'll bring it up from just this past Thursday a couple notes I said I would talk about life it's my first show live since I won the first fantasy football world championship seat I won first but I tied with ending who's a very good player so we will play a head to head we played

1:27:14the first version of it on Thursday night football the night after winning it on Wednesday night and we had the exact same lineup and people like how what this that like when you have two sharp players there was something very distinct it was a horrible slate by the way for a head to head because it would pukover CMC it's a coin flip for those two I'm not playing a 1v1 for like three grand versus a live final seat with you know 70k value but it's all it could be 2.5 million could be 20k it's still such a delta between the two I looked at a lot of the lineups that I could have played against his assuming he's playing the optimal because he's a sharp player they were all big dogs so I'm not coin flipping for that it's just not going to happen so I'll wait for it because I also know that draft Kings will usually say like two or three slates the same format and then we'll let you go to classic to finish this thing out well I would much rather play him even with his skill set and how good he is I would still rather play where there's so many different variables and outcomes that we can have opportunity and not be a 1v1 for a seat so we'll see on Sunday night we could end

1:28:17up with the same line up again but I'm not moving and I'll say it publicly because I don't care I'm playing optimally to try and win a head to head but at the end of the day people don't think like that and and balance their thought process and ranges of what they're doing before they apply it the best players are thinking about that stuff and letting it run its course to get to that event so hopefully that helps you guys anyway if you if you are playing this week in any of these bigger tournaments really makers etc I really hope that you swing for the fences I wish you the best of luck if it's not me or Alex or anybody else that I know and Karen and you know and best you know good friends with that type of thing around the industry then I definitely hope it's you guys we really to do try and give you as much information as possible so thanks for bringing that up all right I said it before Alex I'll let you go we're still going to make it in an hour and a half so we're good 90 minutes usually for this or less what is your leverage lane for the week what's your angle of attack you're going in I I had this thought um while watching the the Niners game it as we kind of talked about you know last year week one scoring was way down I think that's been

1:29:18a pretty common theme over the years especially since we've gone to the abbreviated preseason and teams are resting the offense more and more the teams that have had success like the like the 49ers the other night have predominantly been teams with really good offensive coordinators and schemes where the team is just more prepared for the season as a result and and so I want to focus a lot of my time and effort and you know and preferences this week on in my player pool on teams with good offensive coordinators and schemes and a couple that really stand out the chargers uh like I would love if the if the Niners had been on the main slate but Ben Johnson with the bears I think is another one and the door course for me are the Las Vegas Raiders and I don't like the Mayor chalk hate the mayor chalk in fact so I will certainly not be playing it but Tucker genty and even nailer and I think as you mentioned like you can play it through Kirk cousins you can also flip it

1:30:22and do like a Malik Willis with HN and then bring it back with genty and trade Tucker or something like that yes there there are plenty of ways to to do this but not only is Clint Kubiak one of I think the best offensive minds in the league but it's impossible to overstate how bad the coaching staff was last year not just Pete Carroll in general but like I think their offense line coach was Pete Carroll son something like that but it was an unattrocious offensive line performance from an offensive line with the personnel to actually be decent and so you can like if you took a decent coaching staff and then installed Clint Kubiak I think you'd see a real meaningful improvement in the offense when you go from potentially the worst offensive staff in the league to potentially one of the best I think it's really hard to like actually comprehend how much better this Raiders offense can look this season I think the Raiders offense could be something similar to last year's Colts where it's like man certainly no one could have predicted that the that

1:31:26the Tandle Jones led Colts could have been one of the better offenses in the league for the first 10 weeks of the season they really genuinely were and I think that we could see something similar from the Raiders it is absolutely a much harder hill to climb now that Bowers is out for the start of the year but I think the pieces are still there for them to be quite good offensively certainly in a matchup against Miami and so if you're going like really cheap I think the Raiders and just that game as a whole makes a lot of sense and then you know obviously like the the Bengals I think qualify as another one of those just really high powered offenses less so because of their scheme but at least they've been together for so many years we we already know what that offensive looks that offense looks like burrow chase and Higgins don't need a lot of time together to make sure that they're you know putting up a lot of points and doing well so that's kind of my my leverage lane is just sticking to offenses and schemes that I believe in here for week one and and trying to find some separation that way and I got two so one of them you were you were pretty close on one so I'll

1:32:30I'll even give a third just because I'll just say at the end of the day I like that one thing I like this week is HN and Gentie in the same lineup most don't even like running backs against each other most are deciding on like Meyer Tucker etc I think those two just you battling each other could be a good spot if you're building out that way you could still put Gibbs in there if you wanted I like burrow and Higgins as another one so it's like I talked about earlier I robbed Jamar to pay T I mentioned it earlier and hinted at it I think it's it's a great way to get different and then you could still build a really balanced roster around it yes we're gonna need like nine catches and you know whatever whatever we need from T is gonna we're gonna need something but his price is typically you know in line with where I would expect it to be it's not like I think he's underpriced I just I've said this forever when those two are healthy and on the field together you can't often get a situation where the numbers over long term have actually still been pretty solid so I'm for on on on T Higgins himself and then the other one you mentioned earlier I think you sold me on this without even knowing it but uh colston loveland this week and you talk about

1:33:32Ben Johnson talking about those bears in general I'm definitely gonna be doing some stuff with Caleb and loveland together and just going that route with the Chicago side I think on the other side there's a lot of interest I have even in in that spot I think like people no one can play Hubbard because you just don't need to this week and maybe he's not the guy so it's that but it's also like there's Tet there's Jalen Koker in the slot like there's a lot of ways I I don't know people are trying to talk up the Bryce side too large field maybe but I would be I would prefer to have like even a Caleb colston with colston loveland and Tet or Kalen um loveland and Koker and then fill the rest out it's like I really do think that's gonna be a bit that you can do and if you want to have an extra guy in there like burden or something like that can fit it as well so I'll land on that one as my finale but I do like those other two just as much in ways and you can play some of those together too and param up but think it's a good first leverage Lane for the season anything else from you before we get out of here now I think that covers it all right check out Blick analytics guys if you want you can use promo code TAMBO as well he'll hook you up but I think just if you don't

1:34:36do anything else make sure at least give it a shot right you you got to be able to get in there see what's going on Alex is super sharp covers a ton of fun stuff in there I set it off the top and if you're still here watching this on playback today it's 24 hours until the saber saber sim we called it because you're saving on saber sim but the 1499 deal for 1199 for starter works up to 99 a month but it includes the entire ship at nation offering and gets you dfs mastermind for free like we talked about earlier so you get the 497 plan included you go down here join the nation you can't get this you have to email info at ship at nation.com or send me a message the plan that's 149 a month or 119 on the annual you get it for 99 a month you get the free dfs mastermind and then for ship it games you do actually also get entered into the week 16 bonus contest for ship it games where you can have a shot at the final five golden ship it tickets so guys that's going to do it for this one fun one as usual be back every week at 10 a.m. Eastern on Saturdays make sure you're subscribed

1:35:36to the channel tomorrow it'll be hoop title and myself at 9 a.m. Eastern on Sunday shippers the show is already live on the site you guys can go check that out the final thoughts of the week the game by game all the content going live on the site today under NFL you'll be able to start seeing it there and then also on Sunday we have a new show that's going to be called contrarian constructions with hamwich and bellman 11 a.m. Eastern on Sunday following our show where you're going to get the inactive and it's going to go position by position as opposed to game by game to a fandall and draft Kings top players especially when it comes to contrarian builds and playing for that million dollars on both sites so check that show out tomorrow as well Alex thanks again as always man thank you guys for watching for Alex for myself tote tag and tambo good luck in your contest this week let's ship it