So Phineal GDP Day today given the war and what might still be to come,
but for now the GDP period for Q4 October November December is coming,
everyone's in the black.
It's just by how much Nick Tuffley is the ASB Chief Economist is back with a stick.
What do you see driving that?
Well, it's actually a lot of what's driving that is what's happening
on the export side of the equation.
So we're just seeing that the agriculture sector is still having a good finish
to last year and the tourism industry had a really good finish as well.
So it's still a bit uneven whilst the stuff that we make here in New Zealand,
particularly things like construction was actually weak as well.
So we've got that kind of uneven recovery or at least over that fourth quarter.
So if you add the Q3 number to it,
war aside, would we be under normal circumstances sitting here going,
the recovery's on, it's real and there are your numbers to back it up.
Yeah, well, you would have had about one and a half cent growth over over two quarters
or six months, or they're bearing a mind we've been up one down, one up, one down one.
One and a half, well, it's a 3% annualised trend.
Look, that's looking pretty good.
And look, that's what we have been expecting up until the war that we will get up
to a trend sustainable pace of about 3%, which wouldn't be bad to hit that.
But obviously things are a bit up in the air now.
Dairy though, is that up in the air as much as people might think given that?
I mean, yes, the Middle East, the Middle East and $3 billion worth of trade, not all dairy, obviously.
But nevertheless, the dairy does a lot of heavy lifting around the world.
And is that materially affected by the war?
Well, what we're seeing at the moment, what we're going to remember with dairy is
it's like we produce what we produce.
It's basically the weather gods are driving, driving a lot of that.
So it is coming down to price.
And what we've seen so far anyway, it's very early days,
but price over the space of a couple of auctions,
it's been a bit up and down, but prices are holding up.
So that's the thing we've also got to remember as well.
I also see tourism as well.
Am I being naive here?
I mean, tourism has got to be good.
I'm looking at some of those American airlines and they're talking about,
I mean, they're upgrading yesterday,
because the world is shifting away from the Middle East
into places like the Americas up through Asia.
Surely we've got to benefit from that.
No, it's quite a mix of things.
You're right, you've got people are going,
OK, well, I would have gone to holiday to this place.
Now I'll go somewhere else.
Hey, what about New Zealand?
So there is that potential,
particularly out of those North American routes.
It's been one of our post-COVID recovery markets,
and people have still been traveling out of North America.
The thing we've got to watch is one.
It's getting a little bit more expensive to fly planes,
and that's going to sharpen air fairs
and sort of thought booking at some point.
And the other thing is the disruption
of those links through the Middle East.
So there's that question of are there people from Europe
balanced against people who could come from, say, Asia
The right here right now, how nervous are you?
Oh, I thought we're still,
I think we're still going to be growing this year.
I think we need to look out for this lock.
If it's just a period of painful high-petal prices,
we've been there done that before.
It does slow consumer spending a bit.
The thing we need to be mindful of is
if we do get to the point of experiencing fuel disruptions here
in New Zealand, that's where things change a little bit.
All right, we'll get you back on.
Everything when that ever happens.
I'm fingers crossed.
It doesn't look toughly ASP chief economist.
So he's got 0.4 for the day.
I think it about a quarter to 11 this morning.
