NOVAK NEWS - NORTHERN BEACHES MARKET ALERT: STOCK SURGES PAST 1000 LISTINGS!

We like boys and girls. The market has changed. We're looking at stock levels and it is frightening

what we're seeing at the moment. Stay tuned. We're going to talk about stock levels, Northern

beaches, what it means to you, even if you're not on the door of the beaches, stay tuned.

Good evening. How are you now? Good. Good. How are you? Yeah, good fun.

It's good, it's going to be Monday. It's been a big dealt, but now Tour probably is

going on the market today, which was a water, mastikFI – biggest day or yet?

Bigger staiof year or a year and probably in fall last year. A lot of stock coming on for

one week. Crazy, it was good. Just to qualify this today, I'm a real estate,

in Northern beaches of Sydney. Our Northern beaches, you know, been in the business

been to this couple of years. So we wanted to talk about what we see on the ground.

Yeah, so I think I mean it's in the heading here as well. The main thing we're going to

probably touch on tonight is the amount of stock that all the beaches has right now and

how it can affect the fire and the sell-up on the other beaches in today's market.

Yep. We're also going to show you a tool on how to use that because not a lot of agent,

not a lot of agents, even people out there know actually how to find this information to see it

as a barometer, how the market's going. Now as a team, a sales team behind all the beaches,

we have a group called 2025unders and 2025, the Stocklist Group one.

Yes, 2026 Stocklist. Yes, Stocklist, which we kind of update nearly every week to every Monday

when we do our team meetings for all the new properties that come on and just kind of put in

the chat there for the sales team to know how many properties are alive on realestate.com

that week. And what was the number we found out this morning, Mark? It was scary. It was.

So that's it. We have a thing called Stocklist. There it is. So the whole team is in there and it's

Stocklist and all the beaches. And that says 362 for rent. And today it's said for sale

a thousand and five. Crazy numbers. So it's broken the four digits for this time of year

unprecedented. We haven't seen this much stock in over five years in this month of the year.

So there's a lot of stock in our for buyers that is great news for sellers that is bad news.

Looking at that. Hey, look at it. I always say it doesn't matter whether you're trading in a hot

market or a cold market. It's what you're off to next because you're a few trading in the same

market. You're just swapping one asset out for the other or relevant to a hot or cold market.

Exactly. Exactly right. And I suppose can to kind of touch on as well. The number was a thousand

and five this morning. Look at that ending comparison to this time last year. Right about 700.

Yeah. And that was kind of the trending median number of properties all year. You would say

did it off towards the end of the year around Christmas time. Absolutely.

It's um quite common with people pulling off over that period. Why a kidney shot? Why we are

using the metric on real estate.com.de. I'm going to explain that why I was pulling it up.

We're going to show you how on your phone you can actually look at how many properties are on

the market in your area. So in your suburb, it's different. It's not a huge metric. So if I told

you DIY, that's great. If I told you Colory or Manning or whatever. But with real estate.com.de,

what they allow you to do is choose actually the precinct of where the locality, where your

property is. So our whole region here is called Northern beaches. That goes from Palm Beach,

almost up to Chatswood across to the Split Bridge. Now the great thing with real estate.com is

you can ride in that instead of riding a suburb, you can ride in a region, i.e. Eastern suburbs, i.e.

Northern beaches. If you ride like this, we're going to show you. So I've just got it on the

real estate.com app here. And then at the top there, it's got a search and you can see I've

already got Northern beaches and you say, this is fantastic. I'm trusting crazy.

Can you fly again? Can you plug in? Try this.

All work. Not work. Not work. Not work. Not work. We're still here though, but not work.

Not work. Okay, I'll go back to the phone. We can do your way.

I think you have to refresh.

So yeah, just top search bar Northern beaches and I've selected not surrounding suburbs.

So as you can see the white line on the screen here just gets in all the properties across

to Northern beaches. And as you can see, we go filters, sorry, buy. So that's all of the properties

across to Northern beaches for sale. There's the magic number on the bottom bottom.

Well now as of this afternoon, 966. Wow. 966 guys, that's huge massive numbers.

It's come down. It's starting down to five. Yeah. Morning. Yeah. So 50 properties in a day.

That's crazy. But it's a really good thing as a consider as a buyer, a consumer or as a

seller, if you want it, if you know how much stock. So let me put it this way. It happens with

watches. It happens with you know, cars. Anything there's one of one is exotic is expensive.

If it's one of a million, it's like yeah, whatever, like a Casio watch. So I think with stock

you know, anything anywhere, it's relevant. And just as Al was saying with referencing those

numbers, I think when you're around three, four, five hundred properties, four sale in Northern

beaches, that's really low stock. That's a really pumping property market. And when you get up

towards 1200, 1100, 1000, then you've got a lot of stock on the market. Sellers are going to start

discounting buyers. You're going to do well. So interesting guys. That's our, like I hopefully

will talk you saying today on Northern beaches on, on, on how to look up your stock levels.

And this is where you are. And Sydney, you'll start to get a barometer and take a screenshot

because sometimes you'll forget. Yeah. We know you go, well, is that this much a month ago,

or three months ago, we start with what's our group. So it helps. All this information and

bringing this down to the ground for a for a first home buyer. Good news. Good news. Good news.

So I'd say yeah, for a buy a full stock, let alone a first home buyer, it gives them the

opportunity to look at comparisons. And it gives them the opportunity to compare one property with

another. It allows them to kind of pinpoint where the value should be for a property. And it

allows them to kind of see if a certain property could be overpriced compared to the other stock

that's on the market at the moment. Whereas, so say you're sitting at a thousand, you know,

it's there are around a million, your stock level is going to be a lot higher in comparison,

if it was around six, seven hundred in nearly double the amount of stock, which means double the

amount of comparables, which means longer days on market. Properties are sticking around longer.

They're just staying on for longer, which is, you know, rather than selling in the very quick

10, 15 days and maybe 20, 30 days, maybe they're taking twice as long to sell. That's why there's more.

Yeah, but it's very interesting market. Now, what I also wanted to be optimistic about was to show

you a little bit about some new information that we had at hand that we've been sharing across

our team today. So people make people often say to me, look, I know what's happening yesterday,

I know what's happening last night, I know what's happening next year, but what's your like, you know,

spirit, I don't know, what's your, what's your like, what are you going to have in the future?

Where are we going with this? Like, it's probably going to be good, bad, ugly. What are you reckon?

I love this. And this is sent to me by a friend of mine, Tim Lawless, very, very clever man.

Now, that's how units have performed the lower line, pink, that's how houses have performed

the upper line in 40 years of property, in 40 years of property. So generally, every 10 years,

we've doubled and you can see how profitable and strong that property market is. Now, that is

just so encouraging for me. And I think, well, so if you know what, we've had a nice little ride,

it's doing well, it's leveled out a little bit. And I think you could, you know, if you're

a first-home buyer and investor and owner-occupied buyer, you could really feel confident

with your property market when you say that's at a data.

Yeah, and I suppose I can really just touch on the past few years. I mean, since pretty much

COVID, it's kind of been on that trajectory upwards. The houses and both houses and units have

performed outstanding within the property market on the north of beaches here. But I suppose the

question that I have for you, Mark, is how have you seen that trend go over your 30 plus years of

experience within real estate? And would you kind of, what would your comment be on stock levels

like this should vendors be worried? I know we touched on buyers before that should vendors

be worried with stock levels at the moment. Look, I think with vendors, this is an easier market

to trade for a buyer, because generally a vendor selling is going to become a buyer. So there's

been times the market, or it's almost violent. You rip out very quickly selling your property,

you have to rip it very quickly, buy something, or you've missed the market, you can lose hundreds

of thousands by not getting in quickly. This is more of a car market. It's an easier market to

trade for a seller, for a buyer. So I think it's probably good with where there's our little bit.

Now most people selling, I would say 80 or 90% of people are doing another property transaction

with that money. So it's sort of relative. So even if you're selling for not an extreme

high result, you're not buying for an extreme high result. So it's sort of, yeah, I guess it's

relative. So I think you would say from that aspect, yeah. And look, I think as you just touched on it,

it'd be a good market to both. And as well as a buyer has options to buy your property, you then also

have options to search for your next home. So I think, yeah, goodness had a better myself.

There's probably an even market for both the buyer and the seller. It's interesting times.

Very interesting. I mean, you watch the news and you think, you know, you're looking at these

petrol prices. And I said the other day in our breakfast at Novak, because I don't understand

where everyone's buying about these petrol prices. No one knows their interest rate. Like if I ask

four out of five people what their interest rate is, four out of five would say, look, I'm not

exactly sure what my interest rate is, but if I ask four out of five people, but if I get a

few people, they're paying for fuel, you know, I think you're fine. A lot of them a day. Yeah,

you know, I mean, so I think, you know, it's, it's, it is, there's a lot of a change, but some of it's

just so in your face with news and you're like, oh, and I'm filling up, I'm filling down. But yeah,

I think, I think generally in times of turbulence or instability, people seek stability. So they

move towards property because it's so stable, you're not ripping in and out quickly. Yeah. Yeah.

And then, yeah, suppose if there's also an investment point of view, people will go to something

like that. Suppose it's probably a good point to plug ourselves. If anyone's kind of unsure about

what they should do, what they would like some further information. I know we just gave everyone a

bit of a bit of a teaser tonight with the news here. I suppose our office doors are always open

nearly to eight o'clock every night. Come and get a coffee on the house. Absolutely. We'll

give our rates tomorrow. Well, before we go, then predicting go up. Yeah. Maybe. What do you reckon?

I can't see it going off another 0.25. I don't think it will go that high. Maybe, maybe

0.25. If that, I think they might try and even a day out, especially as you touch on the petrol prices,

everything going up costs to living they might, they might try and even that out a little bit.

You'd think there'd be some consideration towards it. But that's it, guys. So that's your stock

levels on all the beaches. How to read it. Rentals? Low, about 360. Yeah. Of course. How are those

stock levels for rentals? We spoke about sales, residential, but what about rentals?

Yeah. So they're about 360. And your vacancy rates are pretty that at all time low as well.

Yeah. I look at that last week. I think they're about three to three percent.

So across the broader Sydney region, which is quite low. So yeah. I mean, it's a tough rental

market out there. I speak to the property management team and you fairly often. And that's kind

of where I started. My real estate journey was in property management. And it's always been a

pretty tough market over the past couple of years. But I think at the moment now, it's getting

quite competitive. We're seeing a lot of people and a lot of properties not last very long.

I don't think my 30 plus career of seeing rentals this hot. It's hot. Double the prices achieved as

well. It is outstanding. I mean, the Havana stock that we're selling at the moment,

they're the two bedrooms and they're averaging about 11 to 1200 dollars a week. And the one

better with a car space, it's about 800 dollars a week. Yeah. Which is incredible.

Big coin. Big coin. Big coin. Big coin. It's huge coin.

Thank you, Legend. Guys, hope you're having a great evening out there. I hopefully

will help you. If you do have anything you want us to answer or do a story on, write to us. Let

us know a lot of this stuff that we talk about. On here is generated from people's requests.

So I'm hoping that can help you out there. If you can think of anything or just give us

a call. Perfect. Thanks, Alan. That's good. Thank you. There you guys, cheers.