NUMBERS DON'T LIE: Miami Heat Are BETTER Than Their Record

Playoff racing they easy getting tighter so we look at Miami's chances to keep climbing up the standings and how they stack up

Against the field and West based on some recent statements from Zaccala or weeping too harsh on the heat us here never

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I'm West Goldberg host of locked on NBA daily and real GM radio

I'm here with David or mill both of us are credentialed heat media members who cover this team every day

We are zooming out on the entire eastern conference today

We're going to look at where the Miami heat stand relative to the rest of the east in this play-in mix and I do think that

When you look at where the heat are compared to some of the teams around them

We may have be we might be being too critical of this heat team

And I'm going to tell you why I say that I was listening to the low post this morning

And Zacklow and Mo DeKill who both of my respect very much. I have Mo DeKill on real GM radio all the time

I really respect their opinions and so I'm tuning into this show and they're talking about the east play-in race

And they're going through all the teams that are there starting with Philadelphia all the way down to Atlanta

And we're going to do the same thing a little bit later in this show

They had really good things to say about the Miami heat and how the heat are playing right now

Zacklow had a specific stat saying that the heat as a team overall have outscored their opponents by 200 points in total this season

He said quote, that's a real team and quote and both of them seem pretty bullish on the heat

And I'm wondering now if people here locally have been a little too negative about this team because you talk to people at

I'm talking to people before the game even last night media members people that you know all different sorts of people

Kind of just feeling like this is it like this is just sort of the team and we're kind of marching towards nowhere here

And yet I hear a different perspective from people who aren't as entrenched in things here

And they have more positive things to say about the team. What do you think about all that?

I think to answer the question for being too harsh

I'm going to give the really really tough answer right here. Yes and no

And the reason I say that is because I will say we're not being too harsh because we do see this team very closely

We see their foibles much more acutely than Zack does

To say that you know we cover all these games we watch them

We know what the team is like we've seen them fail from time to time

We've seen them not step up and not have that sense of urgency

We've seen

mismanagement of the roster to some degree from Eric's poster all the things that we've talked about in terms of what might make this season a little bit more disappointing

And I think it's only fair that because we see all these games like a lot of our fans to

We see their it where we see their issues much more closely

And look we cover the lead we know what it's like we can't see every game we don't see I mean at this point in time every team has played 50 something games

I know there are teams I've seen maybe a handful of times with the course of the season as much as I hate to admit it

It's just the truth

And so you kind of try to pick things here in their statistics recent exhibitions

As any new stories that might come up and he kind of used those to maybe create

A bigger sense of what's happening a bigger picture kind of view of what this team might be like

But you can't see every game and you don't see all these things that are happening in a day-to-day basis

Like the people who cover the team specifically

And that being the case I think we're not being harsh, but yes

In the sense that maybe we're not seeing that bigger picture because I think that's fair

Because I think if you just come down from an outsider's perspective like Zach does and say well, let me look at the heat

Watched five of their six of their games this year. Let's say maybe ten, you know

They try to watch as many of these games as possible. You watch these games you go

You know what bam's still pretty good nor pal. He's an all-star down here

He's back. That's good Andrew Wiggins

He's been a player in a championship team and on and on the positives that come with this team

You look at those general statistics regarding their defensive efficiency

You look at what they're able to generate offensively you look at some of the numbers recently on a tune win streak

With a two-game win streak

Those are all positives and so when you look at the bigger picture

The team is better than what we say they are

But it's also why we say what we do in that they are not living up to expectations as I said most recently in the podcast

I think that there probably should be about five games better than where they are right now in their record

They should be the six seed if not the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference stand

And so I think it's a combination of those two where you could say

Yeah, there are much better team than they should be and also from our perspective as local media that cover this team

They're not good enough. They have not been good enough and lived up to their expectations for what this group is capable of being

So

You did answer yes and no and I do agree with both points that you're saying here

I do think that there is a little bit of the force of the trees

Situation that happens not just with us, but everybody in any market right when you cover a team you do tend to maybe

Drill down in some of the negatives if you're gonna be a little bit more critical of a team where other

People who are sort of parachuting in either don't notice those things are a lot of times just gloss over them and say

I watched the entire lead what you think it's a big deal kind of happening everywhere

It's not that big of a deal

It's the point I make about injuries all the time fan base. Oh, well, we were hurt. Guess what every team's freaking hurt

The good teams get over their injuries and win despite them right and he'd have had years where they won despite their injuries

And and they've been up and down during they've had you know tally hero missed most of the season

They've had other injuries that they've been dealing with this year and they've won games with injured players and they've lost games with injured players this year

But I do have a few stats for you that I do think again

They're right about where I expected them to be and I've maybe the road to getting to this point

And this is this might be why it's been harder to analyze them this year

The road to getting to this endpoint was not what I expected

But they are kind of right where I expected them to be fighting for the six seed

So I don't know that they have

failed to live up to my expectations and and that's you know

Everybody's got their own set of expectations

But here's a here's a few stats that I think are important to at least point out here

The heat right now have a plus three point two point differential

I like to go by point differential a little bit more than I like to go by wreck now record obviously matters

And we're talking about the final standings and what your ultimate path in the playoffs is gonna or if you make the playoffs

At all right and that very much matters for this Miami Heat team

And to your point David their point differential is that of one with more wins than this

Team has currently so I think you do have a point that maybe this team did drop a few games that they probably shouldn't have

But at the same time they are better than what their record is

There are plus three point two point differential is better than teams in front of them like Orlando

It's better than Philly. It's better than Toronto

It's closer to Cleveland who's the four seed with 39 wins than it is Toronto who's the fifth seed with 35 wins, right?

Miami

Qualitatively is closer to being the Cleveland Cavaliers than it is a Toronto Raptors

Both teams ahead of them in the standings firmly in the playoffs picture here in the east

But one Cleveland is considered a team that could potentially win the eastern conference

While Toronto is a nice story, but nobody thinks they can win the conference

The heat are closer to that team the team that can win the east

And I think that's interesting just by point differential and that point differential isn't everything

But I do think it is and it is historically a very instructive stat

I have a few more for you the either fourth and defensive rating fourth

Okay, that's a real defense. That is an elite defense. And by the way, they've been top five

For the last two months they haven't wavered from that

This is a better defense than they've had in a very long time and BAM and Kallelware and Andrew Wiggins in particular and Davian Mitchell

Are the backbone of an elite defense that's better than anything that they've had since 2022

This is a real defense not a smoke and mirrors defense

This is a real defense that gets stops gets defensive rebounds and plays well on a night-to-night basis

They're 15th and offensive rating for the season

That might not sound awesome

Especially when you're like 15th and offensive rating, but the broadcast says they're number one in points per game

They are but I don't care and efficiency is a stat that smart people use

15th and offensive rating is middle of the pack

But considering that this team had been in the bottom 10 in offensive rating for the last three or four years

To be average

Is a huge win and I think that means that this new offense

It's frustrating as it has been at times has worked

Because I think if you look at this personnel

About average is about as good as maybe you could hope that this offense is and that's where it is

I think they've maxed out what they could be offensively

They're 11th and net rating overall. That's bit. They're almost a top 10 team and overall

Net rating last stat here and then I'll get off the numbers over their last 10 games

Theater six and offensive rating six and defensive rating six overall and net rating

And yet locally it feels like this is an in the perception of this team is negative

This team is trending in the right direction if you zoom out a little bit and look at the overall trends

This is a team playing its best basketball at the right time

I think that last stat is a no-worthy one because I'll coming out of the all-star break

I think both you and I were pretty convinced that this team would continue to get better because of the injury situation clarifying because

They had shown

some kind of understanding of what's at stake here over the last 20-something games of the year

And so I totally get that

But you know even as I'm listening to the stats and luckily you and I both know the stats can be picked and chosen to kind of fit whatever story

You want to set tell and that's fine

I think that this team is better in some regards and certainly better than they've been in the past in certain regards

but I was also looking at our schedule and

I could point to at least a handful of games that Miami should have won absolutely games against games against Utah

Games against Milwaukee but everybody's got those that that's fair the thunder absolutely right

You're absolutely right. They've got those games

But where are the games in the opposite direction? Where are the games that they probably shouldn't have won?

They beat Detroit. They beat Detroit. They beat Denver. They have good wins this year. They beat the thunder

Detroit was four starters down after Nicola Yochich got hurt

That's not I mean that counts

Accounts and it doesn't count. That's a heavily asterisk game in my opinion

Very fair in that

I don't think they've managed to beat the good teams in Houston

That's just good a team and that was a team that's kind of feels like it's the third in the west

That's a good win. I don't want to hear any complaint like Houston's got its own weird locker room vibes

That team wins a lot of games

Yeah

I just think that there's more of those losses there you go. Wow. They really should have gotten that one

As opposed to wow, what a great win. They got a win over the thunder this year

Like that pistons win is a real win

I don't know. I think they've got some good wins on the resume

I think again sometimes we locally just get bogged down in some of the negatives because

We think that this team is immune to the things that these other teams in the league

Also deal with and I don't know. I just it's interesting. There's one more stat that I want to I want to get to

And I think it backs up your point david specifically

We're going to talk about that. We're also going to zoom out to how they heat stack up to the other teams that they're dealing with here in the play and race in the east

We'll do that after this year on lockdown heat. Stay tuned

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One last stat that I want to throw your way David here

And I think it backs up your point overall that this team is probably a few wins worse than where they should be

They have a point differential of a 38 win team. They're currently a 33 win team

But that plus 3.2 that is the point differential of a 38 win team

Which means that again you're closer to Cleveland at 39 wins

You can look at the western conference and compare right Denver has 38 wins Minnesota has 39 wins

Right

These are teams that we talk about in terms of championship contenders

Maybe the outer circle of championship contenders, but contenders nonetheless

right

And I do you know you can look at it in two ways right you can look at it in in the sense of

Boy the heat really left some meat on the bone so far in the regular season

And they should be better when in what their record is right now

But at the same time you can look at it and be like boy the heat are better than what their record is right now

right

You can kind of look at it both ways

I think this is a good

Maybe point to jump off and zoom out and look at the eastern conference in general and where the heat stand in this play in mix right?

So you know, we can talk about how close they are to teams like Detroit, Boston, New York and Cleveland

But we won't really know until and if they play those teams in the playoffs

Toronto is clearly the fifth seed

We you know, whatever that they they're there

Philadelphia 33 and 28 is just a half game up on Orlando and Miami for that six spot

That six seed is still in play for the heat

Right there one loss behind Philadelphia right now that is very much in the wrong possibility and

You could argue that Miami might be the favorite to get that six spot

They do have to pass Orlando in record because Orlando owns the tiebreaker outright with Miami because of the head to head matchups

And then you've got Charlotte behind Miami by two games and then Atlanta two games behind Miami as well

um

We can talk about Charlotte here as a team that's trending up those like but Charlotte at a plus 3.4

Miami at a plus 3.2 and point differential those teams are about the same

And I think clearly the two best teams in the mix of the teams that we're talking about right here

But I mean, let's start at Philadelphia at that six spot. What do you think about Miami's chances of catching them?

I think they should be looking even faster. I think they should try to catch the raptors for the fifth seed right

I mean, that's certainly attainable

So there are three losses behind Toronto in the lost column. That's

It's a lot of ground to make it's not impossible, but we gotta get the six before we get the fifth, but I

I mean, they're five and five of the last 10 so I think they're vulnerable and uh, I have been checked in with them lately

Obviously they they've had a very good season and Brandon Ingraham hasn't been in all start, etc

So I mean they they certainly have a strong case to make for hanging on to that fifth seed

I know they've got a feisty defense, etc

But at the same time

If you do look at Miami and if you do use what that's statistics that you pointed out and this team should be better

now is a time when they prove it and they can continue to stack up those wins

To try and climb past the six seed into that fifth seed or at least be competing for that

That's the goal right you want to be able to stay out of the play and tournament

That should be the very minimum of what you're looking to accomplish for the rest of the season

So as far as catching Philadelphia

Oh, man, I don't I don't know what to make of that six years team because I think they're much better

We we just saw them recently Ed's comes been great Max. He's an all NBA player

Who knows what's going on with Joelle and beat you know when he's available and he's engaged

He's still a really solid productive player and beads doing with this that rib injury that he suffered against Miami

He's been out and that that that could be that's something worth monitoring for Philly

Yeah, I you're right and at the same time like don't you think

Teams covering those I mean people covering those other teams are saying the same thing

I was saying oh they're without their all-starred nor pal

So I mean you could look at what might have been done of late and and they're dealing with their injury issues as well

So it's it's certainly something that

I think has to be monitored. I mean injuries are going to affect all these teams or landos without fraud's Wagner

You can make it strong. I mean he's their best player and he hasn't been available for a handful of games

So and and out indefinitely for the match too. That's not great. Yeah

So there's a lot of these teams dealing with these kinds of issues

But whoever's left has to step up and the past

I think you were confident about this Miami group maybe when that hierarchy with Jimmy was much more firmly in place

To know that the the guys that were stepping up the Caleb Martins that the Max truces of the world

They rose to the challenge. I don't know if that's going to be the case now

If the Jaime Haccuses and the other guys on this roster are going to be able to take up the load without nor pal

And be able to make the kind of push. It's necessary for this team to keep getting better and better in the eastern conference

So I think Tyler hero is stepped into the starting role

Quite admirably he's talking after the Brooklyn game. It's always right, but you know

They're gonna stagger pal and hero and so I'm not trying to diminish the the loss of pal

He's gonna be out for probably another week here with this groin injury

Um, but if heroes trending in the right direction that does a lot in terms of

mitigating that risk where you look at a team like the magic

Yeah, like the answer to missing fron's Wagner has not been and is not more palo bin caro

Right that tends to you would think it should be it ought to be, but it hasn't been right

with filly

You know, Paul George is out for this 20 because of this 25 game bogus suspension that he has to serve and then and bead is out like

They're that's two major stars and it kind of feels like maybe

that rose

Has lost a little bit of whatever that phrase is

For philadelphia is off the room is off the rose there. Um, I mean if it wasn't philadelphia

It always felt like crap anyway

Um, you know, but they started off the season strong and and they were kind of a feel good story

Still are a feel good story to be fair, but they're not they're kind of going in the wrong direction

Right, you know, you you miss Paul George and then you know

You miss him bead and the margin for error gets really thin now for philadelphia and you're starting to see that with some of these

They're you know, they've lost two straight games are starting to see that here

The team that I think is playing as well as Miami you're better than Miami frankly a Charlotte right like they've played like a 50 win team over the last 30 games

That's

Most of the season like that's a real like they're back now up to 500 after a miserable start

It's it's an amazing turnaround for the hornets and it is the best story in the NBA and I love watching that team

They're two games behind Miami, but you know when you look at this group Philly or Lando Miami Charlotte Atlanta

However, they end up finishing whoever gets the 60th obviously makes the playoffs, but two

Or three of those teams are gonna make the playoffs

Yeah, we just don't know what order obviously

Um, and the goal to your point is obviously to get out of the plan and not have to do it

Uh and do that play internament, but if I'm looking at three teams in that group

I

Don't know how you don't choose the heat to be at least one of those three teams right that that come out of that Philly or Lando Miami Charlotte Atlanta group

Obviously, we're not trying to make predictions and guess what the future is gonna be here

But if you look at that group as an analyst

How do you not pick Miami to be one of the three teams that come out of that group you'd have to based on the way that they've played

And the way that they're sure I think we're kind of overlooking what the hawks have done too. They went four games in a row

You know, I think Ming has been pretty solid. So I think that's

Certainly soft schedule. I want to see what coming it does against good teams

Yeah, no Jeff. Uh, I mean, I think that's you look at what this heat team does with their defense

And I guess you can make the argument that you know what because they have that part of their identity

That's okay the dog's a big fan of

And at least that's something if you have the the back bone of a strong defense much like we said about this Orlando

Magic team over the last couple of years before the fish that has been made right

It's like it's like you know what you're getting into you're gonna get into a rock fight with this group

I don't have the same confidence or faith in Miami's defense

Maybe as I had in Orlando's over the last couple of years

But at least it's something and because of that

I do like their chances of being one of the teams that climb I think the Philadelphia is

Most ripe to drop further in the standings. I don't know what Toronto's capable of and I think the magic

Are going to have some issues with whatever it is that they're putting out in the floor too

So I would say Miami and Charlotte are the teams trending in the right direction with the other two teams trending in the wrong direction

And the Hawks is anyone's guess at this point

Fair enough

We're gonna continue this conversation and talk like what should an actual the actual expectations for this heat team be the rest of the way after this stay tuned

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Thanks again for making lockdown heat your first listen every day final thought to close out the episode here

The heat have 20 games left they play the Brooklyn nets on Thursday night big gaming against the Charlotte Hornets on Friday

We are going to learn a lot about this team on Friday against the Hornets on the second out of back to back tough spot for Miami

But well a game that they're probably going to have to win especially to hold off Charlotte here

In that play in mix and in the East standings, but 20 games left David

after our conversation here

What should be the expectations going forward?

I

Think based on what the rest of their schedule looks like just doing a quick cursory glance here

It's there are some tough matchups up ahead. Excuse me. Charlotte certainly being one of them rockets spurs Cleveland twice

Even Philadelphia Boston Toronto twice at Toronto for both those games. So it's not going to be easy

They think if you're if you're believer in what we've seen of late and what they're capable of and knowing that norm is going to come back

It's not optimistic. It's 12 and 8

It'd be much happier to say they're going 15 to 5 over the last 20

I think it's 12 and 8 is much more realistic and that being the case

I'm not sure if that's good enough to fight for that fifth seed

But I that's where I kind of that's where I am as far as the 20 game marker the next 20 games

I think they go to 12 and 8 which is still four games over 500. It's something. That's a 45 win team

Right, and this is a team at 137 games last year made it all the better than they should be

Then a lot of people expect them to agree with that. It's a great point

Oh 45 win team. That's about right

That's about right

You know, this was a team that came into the season

Fandall had him at 38 and a half 39 and a half wins depending on when you got it

That was particularly low. I mean you and I pointed that out

But then we got on here. It was like what do you think?

We both took the over 45 wins would be the over and I guess that's right about in that area with the 60

I think that competes to the 60 that's kind of close to it 12 and 8 is

Fine great. We talked about how soft the schedule is going to be coming out of the all-star break

This was the softest of the soft part now. There's definitely winnable games

Going forward

But the heat I think have done a good job, you know, dropped some games

We talked about the Utah game obviously, but overall I've done a decent job of maximizing the scheduling

They are back in the race for succeed. They have padded their point differential

They're starting to get healthy here and if they get a power back

Maybe they can go on a little bit of a run here

Um overall I think you're about right for what the expectations should be it should be to get that succeed

Right, however many wins that ends up being

Chasing and getting that succeed that to me is the expectation and then at that point

I think you have to look at you know

What is that three six matchup? Is it Boston? Is it New York? Is it Cleveland that you're playing and then really competing with one of those teams

The heat will not be favored in that series obviously and they don't I don't think they have a player on the roster

Who's capable of elevating their game to a level like we've seen Jimmy Butler doing the past

And and knock off a team, but like I mean

Would it be all that shocking? I don't think anybody looks at those like we obviously see these teams as the top teams in the east

But I don't think we also look at them in with fear right crazy things happen

But I do think that the expectation should be to get six and really compete in a way that you did not compete last year against the cast

And you got to historically swept and and that's sort of where I kind of want to end this on is

We get so bogged down in the day-to-day with the heat sometimes that we kind of forget

It's been a year since they traded Jimmy Butler and had to redo this entire thing on the fly

And the fact that at this stage post Jimmy Butler exiting an era where Jimmy was the identity of that team

You have a new identity which is strong defense and this offense

Uh, good players on the roster good young players who people that people around the league feel pretty good about even though none of them are

None of them are going to become a superstar, but you feel good about them is hey, those are rotation level players for a good basketball team

Finding a bunch of those kind of guys in the middle of the first round. That's a win. That's not easy to do

Look at the Milwaukee bucks. They haven't gotten a single draft pick right in 10 years, right? Yeah

Um, and and like the heat have not been picking in the top 10 so

Um, you know, I do think that those are sort of the expectations is all right like let's take a step back here and

And just try to say hey, you know what it could be a lot worse

And it has been a lot worse for the heat after guys like LeBron and Dwayne Wade and these guys have left it hasn't always been great

Um, and it's not awesome right now, but

It's better. It's better than I think a lot of people anticipated in fact it is better than a lot of people anticipated based on only the Vegas

Over under there. Yeah, I think

When you look at most teams in the departure of a superstar

And I don't think it's a stretch or a hot take to say they usually get a lot worse

Yeah, so uh, Miami went through that stretch last year

We talked a number of times about the emotional hangover facing that team just dealing with the whole saga was was not easy

To deal with and as such they

That might have been what we saw from them in the playoffs

It was a team that was just like I don't have anything left to fight

I don't have anything left to give and I'm just kind of done with a full season

Burn it

Scatter the ashes get it away from me as far and as fast as you can

This year started off with a lot of expectations

This is where I think that a lot of the fans and perhaps myself

I'm a little conflicted is because it started off with higher expectations at least locally and from me specifically and

Looking at what this team was capable of early on and thinking you know what they could be better and

Now we've seen those kind of games where they've lost

But that's all I want for them is to kind of prove it like

beat the teams that are

Beatable the Washington's etc when you face those teams beat them and then get a winner to against a quality team

That convinces me that you are better than what your record has been up to this point

And I don't think that's a very expectation. It is not at all right

And they have some of those to your point

They have some of those games on the schedule coming up Friday against Charlotte in Charlotte second

Back-to-back that is not crunch time right that is hey you're gonna if you're real if you're serious

You go and you go into Charlotte and you win that game

So really easy to sit here and being like maybe we've been too critical of the heat after they beat the

Tanking Brooklyn nets and have another game against the Brooklyn that's on Thursday

I'm fully aware of when we're having this conversation in the irony in that

Go win that game against Charlotte

Go win that game against Charlotte. That's that's a really good chance to prove it

We'll talk to you guys all before then obviously well

Thanks so much for tuning in

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