Off the Board Episode Three: MLB Opening Day Game-By-Game Bets

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Your host is always Colby Marshall alongside me is Jacob Sahn. Happy holidays.

If you thought it was yesterday, if you posted about it yesterday, being opening day,

go seek help for the love of God's. Go seek help. Today is the day. Yesterday was opening night.

We are going to talk probably 20 minutes about last night because we got to break that down. That was

unenjoyable. That was not enjoyable at all yesterday. But Jake, happy holidays. I'm so excited

that we're going to kick this off together. We kind of started hanging out doing baseball content

the middle of last season. I know this time, both of us were doing something else, but hey,

we found each other. Happy opening day.

Was it last year? I'll pull the curtain back a little bit for people. I slid into Colby's

DMs first for him to be on the now defunct earlier. It was right before. It was to be on the now

defunct RIP early odds show on a station in Chicago that we don't have to name. But yeah,

I slid in Colby's DMs first. You reached out to me. It was the start of a beautiful. I feel like

it was longer. Was it last year only? I feel like it was coming on your Saturday radio show for

college basketball stuff. Twitter, DM.

I just feel, you know, it's just our part being on our soul. So intertwined that it just feels like

I've known you longer than I actually have. That's why. Because we Chicago radio.

And then my dad and yeah, yeah, yeah. Trust me as somebody that went on the air every day,

every Saturday last summer and said PCA was not going to win the MVP award. I'm very

familiar with Trigger and Chicago sports. You live in the city. It's kind of fun. But no one ever

came at me. So it was pointless, I guess. But yeah, the friendship started via Jake's former

radio show on Saturdays. No way did he. Yeah. No way did his internet just crap out right now.

I have no connection. No way. All right. Well, I don't know where he was going with that.

Matt is behind the scenes, which is very funny. I can only imagine how red in the face that man is

right now. Hello, I'm Jacob Sodden. We'll be I presume joined by Colby Marshall at some point.

In the next couple of minutes. This guy, first of all, and it's in my notes from earlier this week

still. I scratched it out, but Colby being a giant baby. I can picture him kicking screaming red

in the face. Very upset right now with whatever happened to his internet. I'm awaiting the text

because he's definitely. He kicked himself out of the room. He did send a text to me, Matt,

which I will not read on the air. But he'll be back at some point. This is the perfect encapsulation

of what this show is going to be. You tune into this show every week, the multiple days of

week that we're going to do it. And this is a perfect encapsulation of Colby Marshall getting

into a point and he just kicks his own internet out. And now it's me. I'm going to steer the ship.

We will talk about opening day from yesterday or opening night as it were and the atrocious

product that that was by Netflix. If not, and I know it's going to happen again, they have the

home render, but they have the all-star game. Surely that's going to be fine. Hey, buddy,

welcome back. How you doing? Missed you. How do I lose connection? How? I don't know.

Five bars. Anyhoo. How are you, filibustering and filling the void with your voice?

I was starting to get into the opening night product and the atrocities that Netflix put.

Because I'm already in that mood to complain. So that was horrible. I was talking to Scott,

shout to Scott, a better day podcast on Monday posted. What the hell was that?

Scott, you told me no cussing. You almost slipped up there, my man. No, I don't know.

Almost. Yes. What the hell? What the hell that game was supposed to start at seven o'clock?

Didn't start till quarter to eight. I don't care about Brookcrush. Literally, I hate how it's on.

It's not even like genuine content. It's not even. It's just blatantly obvious. Hey, we're going

to promote everything we have on our platform, which I understand. I'm not a dunce. I am a dunce,

but I'm not too dumb to not understand how they're making money and how they have to gain money

through this single game in these other single sporting events that they have every six to nine

months. I'm not an idiot. One, get Burt Christchurch on my face. Also, I saw that I did cost those

posts yesterday that he didn't know who he was. I've never been more jealous of somebody in my

entire life. I used to like Burt, but Burt got old quick fast. That's my thing with him is that

it's it's jumped to the shark. It jumped to the shark two years ago. Like Burt Christchurch. Kevin

Hart the rock. Get him out of my face. And here's the thing. I think Burt Christchurch is funny

in a vacuum. Like I enjoyed his like his shows on Netflix. I've enjoyed his stand-up before. I

used to listen to his podcast with Tom Segura, which was very funny, but it's just we've jumped the

shark. Like we took like all of the, it's like the meme, Colby. You know the meme of like when

all the stick figures have the pineapple on their head and everybody is making a meme out of it,

and then it goes brand and a brand walks in and like ruins it. That's what's happening. Like brands

have ruined Burt Christchurch. He was standalone in a vacuum in small doses funny, but now he's on

every NFL broadcast. He's on every Annette Flick's thing. It's it we've jumped the shark. We have

to find a new sling. Oh, I forgot. Add the Kelsey's in the list. The Kelsey's so the Kelsey's

they're getting there. They're getting like I don't need. No, they don't need. I still I still

enjoy Jason Kelsey. I think I think again, say thing in a vacuum in a vacuum. I think he's fine.

And he's actually a decent analyst too to be honest, but like I don't need him on everything.

I don't need him at the indoor golf league on the SPM. Why are we doing this? Like I just it's

too much. It's too much. Like yeah, big white guys like to drink beer. We get it. Everybody knows

the solid beer. It's a solid beer, too. Solid beer. No, it's a good beer. No,

sponsor us. I want more. I didn't I did it. I when I saw, first of all, the analyst being

James Winston Barry bonds Anthony Rizzo. Who's the other one? Who did I miss?

Who's on the panel? Who am I missing? There's another another one. And then it was CC and

Hunter Pence in the in the booth, which that I didn't mind that they were they were both

albeit the bar was set pretty low. Like I had very low expectations for them. I didn't think

Star studded. If you if you bet it on mute, it's star studded. So I get it.

James being there at first, I was like, why the hell would they have James? I'm like,

oh yeah, he played baseball floor to state and may have been drafted. Probably got drafted.

I mean, he did. No, he did. He got drafted. Yeah. Whatever. I didn't really listen to it much.

But that's the thing. Like I the theatrics. I went I didn't know I wasn't going to listen a lot.

I'll say this. The best part about the intro before the game was the anthem. That dude saying

it's hard. That dude. Oh, and the drones. The drones. The drones are school. I did like and I

always like because the giants do this in general. Like I like the live reports from the bay to

from the cove. Like I like that. That's always fun to me. But the fact that they had to add drinking

in there and Burke. God. Real original thoughts guys. Right. Well, that's a thing. It's like,

oh, wow, this guy can slam a beer sick. Like it's just we need we need like get that man

a bottle of molot and then we'll talk. No, it also him be from I was also like, why is Burke

there? He's from Florida. That is a great point that I had not. But they were but they were

promoting his show. Everything was just a promotion. Well, that's the thing too. That

thing. Yeah, like they were they did one piece. They did birth. They did. Yeah, absolutely.

Like it was it was a giant infomercial for Netflix, which is not to be unexpected. I was kind of

ready for that. Well, you know, yeah. And then they got it. They got to make money somehow also

to to not crap on Burke fully. Like people trying to get the bag. I understand. But we do have

a certain amount of money. I feel like you should be more picky of where you place. Why would you

call me? Come on. You're going to turn down the Netflix money. Also, we don't know since he's a

Netflix employee, he might be contractually obligated. He might not have a choice. You didn't let me

finish. I'm saying, what do you be more strategic on where you show yourself so you're not over

overseen over stimulating everybody like somebody you see all the time. Let's go through the list.

The rock, Kevin Hart, him, the Kelsey's. Who else do we see too much? I'm just too much.

Those four names come to mind. Yeah. Yeah. I think I think those are the main four.

Get him out of my face. Also, never been a top cigarette guy. Don't think he's funny.

Disagree, but that's fine. All right. Let's talk about the real news. Let's talk about how everybody

got to victory last Aaron judge yesterday because that was all the that was all 162 games

yesterday. That was the entire season. Oh, you struck out four times first time in two years.

First time in two years. Didn't do it last year. Oh, but when something when he doesn't come

through in a first game of the season, oh, all hell breaks loose. I hate, I hate that stuff.

Hate it. Still one. Still one. Jake, take it away.

I am never going to cry for Yankees fans. I'm never going to cry for a two-time reigning MVP.

I personally, I love, I love the Yankees lander on Twitter, not like my own personal feelings,

notwithstanding. But like, like, this is, this is what comes with being a superstar. This is

what comes with being on the New York Yankees. This is what comes with being the main event

for baseball, the only event for baseball, on quote, opening night. Like that's just what happens.

Every single New York Yankee that is of note over the last few years has dealt with this. A ride

dealt with it. Cheater dealt with it. Pasada dealt with it. Like all the Clemens, all these Aaron

Boone gets it as the manager, obviously. Like, this is what comes with being a New York Yankee.

I am going to shed no tears for Aaron Judge. You know why? Because he can dry his eyes with his

MVP awards. He can dry his eyes with his millions and millions of dollars. And yeah, you know what,

Colby? The memes are funny too. Like a lot of them are pretty funny. Like the one, the one

got tweeted, whereas like what Aaron Judge sees when a picture throws the ball. And it's a little

baseball, the smiley face, and it goes, you wouldn't hit little on me, would you? Like, that's funny.

Like it makes me lessy. See what I mean? Like, yeah, of course you're going to get like the red

socks chuds and the, and the usual Yankee haters like, oh, nice game idiot. Yeah, like, but you and

I rationally know Aaron Judge is still going to hit 307. He's still going to hit 60 homeruns.

But in the moment when he's the main spotlight guy of the night, yeah, he's going to catch

black. It's going to be fine. Yes, rationally, as analysts, me and you know that he's going to be

fine. And he's still, hey, guess what? Still the favorite for MVP. Price didn't change. It's one

game. It's just funny. I don't, I, I love it. I think it's very, very funny. Fun fact, anyone

out there at the Yankees have the best record baseball. See, this is why you get it because there

are people who are unironically saying that. You know, there were Yankee fans last night who,

and I wasn't serious. No, I know it's not you, but, but that's why my point being this is why

this happens. This is why Aaron Judge gets the flag. This is why people make fun of him because

there's some again, marinara covered sleaze out there saying, oh, you want to talk about the Yankees?

Oh, the best record of baseball, sweetheart. Like, I mean, what do we talk? Like, you know,

there's somebody doing that out there. It's true, but it's right. Like, oh, like, it's just,

it's, it's so dumb. Like, you know, there's somebody doing broadcast. Yes.

New York accent is my broadcast voice. Like, I'm sorry that I'm right. All right.

Do we have anything else to unpack from yesterday?

No, other than let's victory let's victory let's let's let's victory lap real quick. Logan

Web strikeouts happening through basically Aaron Judge was awesome. I'll say that. I mean,

I'll I'll say this to like I he should have had 10 strikeouts. He should have had 10. He should

have had a million strikeouts. Like, he should have had 27 up 27 down. Guys, Jake was texting me

actually being like every at bat's going to be two strikes and we're not going to get it. I

was like, if Jake text me another jinx-esque thing, I'm going to I'm going to take off work right

now and drive to him and struggle. And then you don't know my address. Oh, when I was at work,

I'm like, we stand for strikeouts. And then I'm like, oh, my come on, come on. And then jazz

grounded out. And I'm like, time to sit back down. And I'm like, I'm not standing again. And then

judge struck out for the six. And the thing is like, he didn't only just go over the five and a half.

He went over the six and a half, too. Like it's oh, he got seven. I don't know. He got seven. Like,

I don't know how like he backdoored it completely. And like more power to everybody who got the worst

of the number because it closed six and a half. But it's it's just not like I I am counting our

lucky stars. And we just take it and we move on. Is my connection bad? It's not great. It's not

awesome. Literally, I have nothing open. Yeah, because we've done, we've done this before with

your laptop. Like your laptop needs a restart every now and like mine did with the microphone.

I mean, not now, obviously, we'll do it. All right, slam. I'm sorry. Jesus,

crimony. Anywho, we got nothing else to talk about from last night, but now let's get into opening

day. Before we do, just want to say over at better day, we have a brand new MLB game center with

projections, edges for sides, totals and player props. Go check it out. You can't have enough tools

in your toolbox. As we always say, Jake and I, the more tools, the better. Let's dive in today.

First game of the day, pirates, mats. I have a lot of leans. I feel like I can talk about any game.

I looked at almost everything. Jake, funny thing for my sub stack. I I was like, you know what? I feel

I feel motivated. I'm going to write at least a lean or a bet that I like in every game. Oh my god,

you're sick. I have I had like four up and I'm like, I'm not going to care about half of these

games. I'm like, I'm only going to give out leans where I feel it is rightfully joked. That's the

thing. Like you like we've and we've all been there. Like you get excited. It's opening day. You

jump in. Like you want to you want to spray the board. But like I just was trying to give people

what they want. Something to have reasoning behind or just some sort of stat that could be like,

you know what? I like this, but I'm going to do it for this guy. No, I'm I'm with you like it like

this morning. When I'm Smith, you're not interrupting anything. You're letting me know my things sucks.

It's good to know. Like that was like me when I was at the gym this morning, Brad. Like I'm looking

through like numbers, props, whatever. Like it's I'm trying and I'm like wanting to find something

for every game. But at the end of the day, I got I think a four bets today. Like it's you don't

don't force it. Five five. Yeah. No. And most of them were sprinkled by advice to everyone out

there. I know it's opening day. I I love and hate opening day for the reason that you don't have

data. You don't have a lot of data. You're going off things that almost don't matter, which is last

year spring training. Like everything is so fresh. And you're getting studs. You're getting aces.

We're going to talk about it right now with the Mets and Pirates.

Freddie, we're all to pulse an hour. And Jake and I are going to agree on this lean. I don't

I didn't bet this, but it does have value. Today, my advice to everyone out there. Don't pay any

juice. I think that's the easiest thing to tell you. Don't pay any juice. It's opening day. There's

a plethora of bets out there that you can find alternatives for. Honestly, you don't have to

pay. Instead of paying the juice, just go the opposite way. Take take the don't like. I mean,

I'm tempted to take the Padres against the juice on three scoobles.

Actually, it was put that put that comment up put that comment up. Put that comment up because I

have a comment. Yeah, it was a gym and I am building the quads. Yeah, it was actually like day.

Thank you very much. It was like day. I was getting after it. It was awesome. We're getting active.

Anyway, I see that I am grainy on Twitter. So all right. So here's my lean and I know you're going

to agree because this is just our wheelhouse. I wrote this on my sub stack. Here's my lean for

pirates. Mets first five under or if you want to get out quick fast first five or first three

under one and a half at plus money. So I also really like the first three under. I'm a

little scared of Freddie Peralta just because the road splits last year were all trotious for him.

And I'm not sure what stats. I mean, what is I mean, what is even the weather in New York today?

Like I try to keep that city off my phone as much as possible, but I guess we'll do some research.

Maddie, I should know. 64. Okay, so it's 64 and mostly something. It's hot everywhere. It's the

perfect day. It's so nice out today. Time out. Time out. Time out. I meant to talk about this.

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Topic and with the Cubs in a second. We're supposed to get baseball-sized hail on opening day today.

Did you know that? I didn't know it was that. Yes, hail. It's going to hail today.

Well, the Cubs aren't at night. The hail is not going to happen until around like four or five.

It's a 120 game. Yeah, it's not even supposed to start storming here until like five PM. Of course,

right when I'm trying to go to the bar, but whatever. Baseball-sized hail. Question, where am I supposed

to put my truck when I go to work? That's why you don't buy a vehicle, brother.

Yeah, you think I wanted it? Anywho, let me read some trends off about Peralta and Skins.

But overall, on this matchup, hitter-wise, one elite rated hitter, one strong rating in this

matchup. Other than that, everyone's on average rating according to batter's hyphen box.

Don't forget the hyphen. There is a free version. People forget. He did change his great rating

too strong now. I kind of like that. So the green is now strong instead of great. Skins in 45

elite ratings across his career, under three runs, 86% of the time, under two runs, 64% of the time,

under one run, 40% of the time, five plus strikeouts, 88.89% of the time, six strikeouts, 84.44%

of the time, seven strikeouts, 55.56% of the time, Freddie Peralta on the day has the highest

average hitter matchup, K percentage, 25 strong ratings, under three runs, 60% of the time,

under two, 48, under one, 16. I mean, you give me the cushion at one and a half. I'm going to

be fine with one run, but it is going to be sweaty. Seven pirate hitters have, they are above

the lead K rate, 40 games with an elite K percentage, five plus strikeouts, 75% of the time,

six plus 65% of the time, seven plus 50% of the time. I think getting that for not being half

in the first three and maybe you give up a solo home run, either one could do it. I mean, both

guys throw a key. So both guys are fastball guys, Freddie Peralta, mainly fastball guy.

That cushion is nice. You're getting plus money. They just have to get through the order once.

Right. I mean, and that's, I mean, granted, that was the thinking with last night's first three

under one and a half, and that went really well. I just, I don't know what fluke. That was a fluke.

But I also like, I want to see what this, so full disclosure, like, I'm not taking a side

in pirates and meds. Like, I just, I want to see what this is going to be. Like, theoretically, yes,

Peralta should have success against a pirate's team that has a lot of new faces in that lineup,

and a lot of new guys that are figuring out their place in the lineup and on the team.

But God, those, like, those road splits for Freddie Peralta were horrifying last year. And granted,

he used to pitch him a walkie. He's seen the pirates a bunch. He's familiar with them as a concept.

But like I said, new lineup, I don't know what this is going to be. The one elite rated

batter on better type of box is on the pirates. Get into that because I do have a bet on that guy.

But I just, this is a, this is a fact-finding mission for me with this, with this Met's team today.

I mean, also, we have Carson Benjiit, 22 to 1 for NL Ricky. The year with love, he got to a fast start.

But I just, I don't know. I don't have a strong lead on the side. I, I mean, I guess we can just get

to the bet right now. I do like Marcelo Azuna to hit home run. You can get a good number on him.

Like, in a, in a day where there are a lot of people who are under three to one for home run

prices, which is absolutely atrocious and disgusting. Just go look at the Orioles prices.

I'll take Azuna at three, four to one. I, I like him to home run elite rating against

Freddie Peralta. Nice day in New York. So the ball should fly a little bit better than if it were

like 40 degrees. I'll take the shot there. I looked into it. I didn't like it, but the price

you get 720, right? You said, well, it was boosted. But yeah, I mean, like, yeah, I mean, everyone

knows there's boost out there. Yeah, Fandall has one shot. Yeah, I boosted to 720. You can get,

I mean, but even still, like I, even at four, it's plus 480 is the standard number. Like you can,

that's still pretty good for him. Everything I look at and look at Azuna's history versus Peralta,

I hope there's like seven. Everything that I looked at and I didn't look at that because that

doesn't mean anything. I looked into Azuna and how he does against schemes or schemes. No, no,

Peralta stuff. Excuse me. Yes. And I wasn't a fan. He didn't have the sexiest numbers, but

to your point, 720 is pretty worth sprinkling on a guy that has the power and

can easily do that on opening day. Also, no, we're not betting Tyler O'Neil today.

Anyone out there watching, wondering, no, lazy. It drove me insane. It's not lazy. It's lazy.

Like for the people that we are trying to, that we serve, for the people who are just taking

in content, it's not lazy because people, like the general public loves a trend. And this is

the trendiest of the trends. Like, I don't, I don't think it's, like, I think you have to give

the viewers and listeners and the people who consume the content. Like, I think you have to give

them a little wiggle room. I don't think it's lazy. I just think it's jumping on the bandwagon

too late. Like, I think that's what you risk falling the victim to of jumping too late. Like,

you said the other day, it's a following knife scenario. If you've never, if you've been betting

this each of the last five years, you're really proud that I said that. No, I was. I was very proud

of you. It was very good. But like, if you've been betting Tyler O'Neil each of the last five

years, great, more power to you. That's great. That's awesome. But like, I personally, for me,

for example, I don't want to be the guy that jumps in on year six and it doesn't hit. And then I'm

like, well, what am I even doing this for? I didn't even really like it, but I jumped in on the trend.

If you've been in it for three, four, five years, great. But I think Colby, what I was saying, like,

I don't blame the general public for getting caught up in a trend because that's where all the money

comes from in this stupid, stupid space that we occupy. I just, there were some bigger,

I don't even know who it was that posted it that triggered me, yes, right? But it was like a

bigger name. That's all the touting. Yes. It was somebody that shouldn't have been acknowledging it.

And I'm like, you're, you have other better, you've better things you could post than this layup

scenario, just like how I see some content. But it's engagement for it. I, I want to do it

sometimes because I genuinely care what people are looking for. But I, when I see it, I'm like,

that's just lazy. You're just filling your one tweet per hour or two hour, you had a dry day. So

you had to post something that will get people to reply. I can't have a lot of dry days lately.

But let's get to the next game. We have nothing in this outside of Jake's taking Marcelo's

unit plus 720. Yeah, posted to leave the art, sprinkle on it. Please, my advice also outside

of paying the juice today. Do not go crazy with, yes, putting full units. Yes,

imagine. Man, your bankroll accordingly. Again, first day, things are going to be weird.

First day. Still, it's March. It's March. Thank you, Amanda. I'm hoping you're talking about me,

not Jake. I'm just joking. Game you and I will be watching together. The white socks game at

it's, it's Miller Park for me. It's not American family field. Dude, I didn't even know they changed

the name until last year. I've been calling it Miller Park. It's been like that for three years.

Three? How many years? Or I've known for. I don't know.

This is where our producers should really tell us things like this, even though we did not tell

him we were going to talk about this. When did Miller Park change its name? Life producer? No, it's

fine, man. I'll do your job for you. No, I'm kidding. Miller Park was officially renamed American

Family Field on January 1st, 2021. It's been five years. Dude, you could have told me that they

changed it on March 27th of last year. And I would have believed you. Jake, full transparency.

I, when I worked for Stadium and we did the rally on Valley Sports and we would put like game

lower thirds and you would put the field name obviously like Brewers, whoever. I put Miller Park

and somebody goes, that's not the name anymore. I go, dude, since when?

Could have fooled me. Could have fooled me. It's like when the Astros went to the American League,

since when? Could have fooled me. Anyway, back to White Sox and Brewers. I have nothing in this game.

No, I do have me. I bet. Go ahead. I mean, granted, like me and Colby, we have the

little Vanable Manager of the year. We both have the win total over. But I'm going to take the

White Sox on the money line here. Like Shane Smith continues to be disrespected. I love Jacob

Mizorowski as much as the next person. Truly, and I think he's going to be one of the best

pitchers in the league for the next handful of years. I think he's awesome. But White Sox lineup

a little bit revamped indoors. I think this team is plucky and I think the price that you're

getting on them. I think it's a little bit disrespectful, especially with this Brewers lineup.

Without checks and choreo, by the way, I think there's going to be a lot of people who are blindly

betting this Brewers team and seeing them as a favorite. Like should the White Sox really be plus

150 in this game? I don't think so. Like Shane Smith was a really good, he was a very effective

pitcher for the White Sox last year. I would say better than serviceable, though, even.

And now the White Sox, and the White Sox, I actually like the White Sox bullpen with Grant Taylor

and Serentheni Dominguez at the back end, especially. I kind of like them. We do have a lineup.

I mean, like this Bryce Terang, William Contreras, yeah, yeah, like Andrew Vaughner,

revenge game. How many people do you think are betting the Andrew Vaughner on today?

I got something better. Somebody texted me today. This is not me talking crap.

This is just I hate baseball narratives like that. I really, really do. What guy do you think I

got asked today for revenge? In this game or in another game? Another game. Think the Peyton Manning

of baseball players. Just tell me four head, four head, four head, just tell me a Dolos Garcia

revenge game. Oh, I said my exact reply was Pete Carroll. Okay, whatever. I actually don't hate

the Adolescing because he's an insane person like that. I could actually understand also hitting

Murakami. What is a six? That's a choice by Will Venable, but whatever. Hot take, hot takes.

Should he be? I didn't know he was at six. So this is a good conversation I want to have. He's not

the fastest, but he is just an overall contact and power guy. Wouldn't you put him two or one?

Who's two? What's the lineup? I mean, you're not putting them one.

I don't hate you. You know what I need to one for two. That's that is an insane price.

I would have honestly, I would have put him fourth or fifth. Like, are we really still doing

the Andrew Benotendi fourth thing? Really? That's really what we're doing. Like.

Put him last. Hot take. Put him last. Well, I mean, where are you going to put Louis St. Joel

Cuny then? Um, first, I first, like, no. Who's what's the lineup? I don't have it in front of me.

I was just going to say I love what? Why don't I just tell you what the lineup is?

Uh, uh, chase my drawth, Colson Montgomery, Miguel Vargas, Andrew Benotendi, Austin Hayes,

Muracame, uh, whoever Everson Pereira is, Edgar Carro, Louis St. Joel Cuny.

I like the first, I like the first three. I love the first three. I would flip Muracame

by the time he's ahead of Muracame. Right. Well, exactly. I actually like Austin Hayes. Like,

as a complimentary piece, I don't think he's that bad. I don't hate him. Like, so I would have

put Muracame forth. I don't know why we're still doing the Andrew Benotendi cleanup thing. That's

outrageous to me. I don't know. But anyway, my point being, I like the white socks to win. I think

this lineup is on par with the brewers, like pound for pound one through nine. And Shane Smith

against Mizorowski. Like, we also remember Mizorowski was prone to blow up. He had a couple blow up

outings at the end of last year. And I'm sure he can handle it. I'm not saying that he's going to

blow up today. But I think this game is closer than the white socks plus one 54.

I was looking at Colson Montgomery today. Yeah. I think he's the, I think he's the third highest

rated hitter on batters hyphen box.com. Don't forget the hyphen. And I didn't like anything. He

can't hit fastballs. That was the number one thing that scared me off. Mizorowski throws a ton of

fastballs. Well, yeah, he had an extra three. Oh, yeah, he forgot. He's a rocket cannon guy.

I was like, maybe it is a good look because for a guy that came out the gate as an all star and

was minus 200 is first four starts to be NL rookie of the year. But he did, he fell of a cliff.

Kind of fell of a cliff. Well, he did have an injury too. I forgot about that. And I was like,

okay, I love Colson Montgomery. The thing he's going to be awesome. And I'm like, look,

let me look at his stats because I don't remember. I never bet. I've never bet on him. I just

enjoy the. I mean, the power wasn't saying that like his, his isolated power and like his

slugging was crazy. So he had like a two 16 average against. Yeah. Falls last year. And Jake,

I was like, all right, let me check more advanced stuff. His expected batting average against fastballs

was 190. No, it's horrible. I know. I know white sucks people. I know white sucks people. And we'll

talk about this later because I'm going to talk to Shane Reardon later. Like I know people who

think that he shouldn't even be the starting shortstop today. Who would it be? One of their,

like, they have a couple of shortstop prospects who are highly rated. I disagree. I disagree with

that too. It's a little bit of a. Somebody who had so much success last year has to make mistakes.

And you, you kind of are, you got to force them out there. I know. And it's four sounds like a

negative thing. I think it's more of a positive thing to keep mouthed. Same way that I look at Jason

Dominguez. If he has a bad day, you take him out. How is he supposed to improve?

Because it's been seven years. Stop saying that you know what I'm getting at. Fine. I'll use Kyle

Mizorowski or not Mizorowski. Manzardo. Excuse me. Fine. Great. That's a much better comparison.

Manzardo has a bad game. They take him out. Has a great game. They take him out. It is,

it's mental. It's morale. Yeah. I agree with you there. I'm not, I'm not here for the

Jason Dominguez conversation is all double J, double S, double S, double S, double S. Yes.

Double S. All right. So you got white socks, money line, anything else in this game?

Anything else in the what? Because you went into the dark zone again. Anything else in the white

socks game. Uh, no. I'm just, listen, we have our futures. Those are the hay is in the barn.

Hopefully they age well.

The hay is in the barn. It is. All right. All right. Let's go to a game I've had written about and

bet for the last two days. That is the o's taking on the twin. Oh, you love this game.

Shockingly very warm day in the city of Baltimore. It's supposed to be in the upper 70s this time.

Where we're cooked as a society. It's over. What do you mean? They said it didn't exist.

Also, have you been doing your pushups for World War three? Talk about the game.

All right. I talked about this, not paying juice. I do not know what the price is right now.

I'm just going to give you the price that I got on Tuesday. I believe I bet this,

which is plus 102. When I was making an on other books, minus 128 or worse.

So this was not even boosted. This is straight up how I got it. And I was like, I have to bet this

now because I really do like it. That is Pitalanzo and Gunner Henderson both to record a hit today.

Pitalanzo in 111 elite ratings records a hit nearly 70% of the time. Two bases 54% of the time.

And I'm going to stop right there and talk about Pitalanzo for a second in terms of

how looking at him minus 116 right now. That's a that's not a bad price. But I'm telling you,

if you're getting two premier hitters, do not pay that though. Opening day, you don't pay juice.

Here is something I want everyone to look at when they find a day they like Pitalanzo.

He's the most disrespected player when it comes to two plus bases.

Is Pitalanzo one of the top 10 most consistent hitters in baseball? Yes. They mispriced his two plus

bases prop all the time. Sometimes it's plus 130. He shouldn't be plus 130. I think ever to record two

plus bases. Yeah, I don't completely disagree with that. But he's a guy that can report doubles.

Like he's not slow. He does run like a dork, but he's not slow. I would I would be interested

to see what the park factor changes between cityfield and Camden. I would be interested to see

what those park factor comparisons are. That's a great point. Jose Ramirez is incredibly

disrespected. He does get a lot of plus money bases for somebody who can steal bases and get

the second with ease. So going back to Pete's trends. 111 elite ratings is elite today.

70% of the time records a hit. Almost 30% of the time records a home run and then the

bases I said 54%. Gunner in 218 elite graded games records a hit 71.5% of the time records a

home run 17% of the time two plus bases just a hair under 50% of the time. Taking on Joe Ryan

who has the fourth worst picture rating on the day has the worst average hitter matchup. Iso

seventh highest hard contact allowed today among opening day starters that includes yesterday as well.

This springy faced 50 hitters hadn't expected fifth at 464 allowing 51% hard contact.

Posing hitters had a 501 x slugging last season overall allowed 41 almost 42% hard contact.

47% fly ball rate 416 x slugging 50% fastballs that will get me drooling every single time. Why?

You're not a pro if you can't hit the fastball. It's real simple. You're not going to be in the

pros much real long if you can't hit fastballs. In 2025 big meet Pete against fastballs 266

batting average 940 OPS 164 WRC plus Gunner Henderson 337 973 OPS 181 WRC plus Kobe what about the

rest of the repertoire fantastic that's why I bet them I also sprinkled on both of them to hit a

home run as well today. You done? Yep that's the full sell job. Great. Matt too much for you?

No no no I was just Matt let me do a bet I'd not that I disagree with anything you're saying and I do

like the process makes sense that I love I love the sprinkle on both of them to hit a home run like

that's that that tickles I was like I have to bet both I like both one if I pick one it's the

other one yeah I just I added I added a bet for the way game was all the you bet Jose Ramirez

home run. Nope. What'd you bet? Jose Ramirez stolen base plus 320. Oh because I mentioned that he's

fast and Matt and Matt's right he is incredibly disrespected at better than 3 to 1 to steal a base

against Cal Raleigh who ranked 22nd out of all catchers last year and throwing and here's where

you're really going to get excited Kobe. Jose Ramirez 5 for 15 in his career against Logan Gilbert.

15's a good sample. It's a decent sample. Did you have anything in this O's game?

No nothing in the O's game for me I just again this one is a fact finding mission for me just I

want to see what this Orioles team is going to be more than anything just because I want to see

what the lineup looks like I want to see how they adjust I also don't really trust Trevor Rogers

I'm wondering if last year because I like everybody you talk about about Trevor Rogers oh well

it was a fluke even though we had a sub to ERA I do I think Trevor Rogers to be minus 145

favorite no do I trust Joe Ryan in this twins team absolutely not so if anything it might be an

overplay if I was going to do anything but I'm just going to stay away I think the twins are going

to be absolute dog water this year and I just don't know what the Orioles are going to be so

this game is a stay away from me overall I'm just good I'm just good figuring out and taking notes

on it I will say our producer Matt is on Matt Walner to leave the yard today I told him I won't touch

him till that first to 10 that loses sure unless I really love something let's see let's go to

do you have anything in the Cubs game you like we don't have to touch on all these if we don't like

anything in the Cubs game I mean like I was tempted by the nationals but God that lineup is so

disgusting same thing like you get belly sports casino and you get James Wood right anyway I think

seven is a wild number for a game started by Matt Boyd and Kate Cavali that Matt the Matt Boyd

love in Chicago hysterical it's just I don't know I like where that's an insane price yeah James

James Wood two bases a plus 180 is outrageous that that's all right all that's some stuff

screw it is he bad against lefties is he that bad against lefties I mean he has to be right yeah he's

got to be I agree the Matt Boyd love is like if if I was going to play anything it would be the

over it would be the nationals like that nothing else the nationals first five team total is probably

a half let me see I mean it point the matter is it's never the Cubs it's never the Cubs in this spot

ever ever that's one and a half plus 130 yeah good it's it's priced at that for a reason let's see

James Wood against lefties last year was being bang boom oh my god he crushed lefties last year

two seventy eight thirty thirty four ninety three yeah how do you do on the road on the road James

Wood two seventy eight seventy five oh three he was he was better against lefties and he was

better on the road okay we're adding we're adding we're adding we're adding so let's Smith what's

that you looking at all right I'm in on you let's see if you told me I had to pick something for

Houston angels it's Hunter Brown case yeah it is I that is in that that hey is in the barn Hunter

Brown over seven and a half case plus money just I think Hunter Brown again is going to be a top

three Saiyung guy like I think he's going to be a finalist for the Saiyung award the angels

struck out a ton last year on the road I just like I think Hunter Brown we're gonna see I got

plus let's see what's the strikeout number six seven and a half yeah over seven and a half

and at plus 120 like I just I think that's disrespectful to this guy go after what he did last year

and going against an angels team that strikes out as if mean you were up there I I love Hunter Brown

I love the I love the spot I love him being at home let's do it yeah that was my lean I didn't

I don't want to now watch the angels just win I wonder I wonder what it did it probably open at six

and a half do you think nah I don't think so you think it was always seven I mean you get the

you yeah there is six and a half out there but you got to pay a dollar right you you got to pay

some heavy juice yeah Matt that Matt yeah Matt almost beat me to the punch I'm good on that

let's see any games we don't care about is there any games you're like I really don't care

any games that I don't care about I mean we already talked about twins Orioles you said you

want to add the Padres is that what you said I was I'm kids well because all of this well no now

the steam is coming the other way because Scooble opened like minus one 45 and everybody even

Matt was like trap line but now all the steam is coming to like now the pot now it's down to minus

125 on the Tigers which seems kind of crazy now I mean now it might be time to bet the Tigers

when was the last time you got minus 125 on Scooble two years ago I don't bet money lines

right anyway thanks for being on this gambling show then I just like my if this is going to keep

coming down if you get to minus 120 with the Tigers you may have my interest but otherwise

I mean games that I don't really care about like I don't part I mean I care about them all like

they all matter in the zeitgeist of season long evaluations um but like I'm not betting Rangers

Phillies I if I if I was going to do anything it would be the Rangers on the money line um I

wrote that one I had a lean just because plus one 45 plus one 50 with Nathan you've all the

not sure that that's right eight is the total on that game too is interesting

my only lean in that one was Shorber home run it's hope Shorber home run or you add his

to get a hit into a head partly because it was like 155 or something which is a great price

for him to get ahead you're not taking his bases because he does not hit doubles

he's a home runner single guy right or he's walked

ah yeah I didn't I didn't love it I'm not going to bet it

uh raise cardinals I'm good I I have I have a bet that I love I knew when I

when I was going to say that I'm like he's going to have something I have a bet that I love

in that game can't matter a home run no no no pitcher pitcher pitcher uh I I don't know if it's

just because people still don't know who he is are people just or it's because he's in Tampa

a mixture of the both but like I love Drew Rasmussen over four and a half case over four and a half

case plus 120 for Rasmussen today guy guy put up a 276 in four win season last year and like

what was it it like I just I don't know I don't know if it's because people don't know who he is

but Colby like going back to 2022 Drew Rasmussen 284 ERA 262 ERA 283 ERA 276 ERA

I love Rasmussen to go over four and a half case against this cardinals lineup

this cardinals team sucks they stink baby it's just Herrera and that's it it's Herrera and

it's weather hold and that's it like I mean Al Borrelson was fine last year but you have Mason

win hitting fourth got it what some guy named church hitting seventh ERA field I the

country singer Eric church apparently his nephew Nathan like I just this cardinals team is

absolutely cheeks and even if they were closer to average four and a half for Rasmussen like

that's not right like let's just go through his game log from last year and what he was able to do

this is a guy that can strike out now here's a guy that can strike out 10 batters like

Chris yeah thank you it like he's generally around the five number I like when the raise

let him cook grand it likes they've been known to have a short leash with him but I love Drew

Rasmussen today over four and a half case I think that is a way wrong number not bad you know

if it's over four and have a plus money I'm in I'm way in the just for fun Z's home run by the

way is Marcel Zuna against Freddie Peralta 720 with the boost yeah almost five to one otherwise

which is still a really good number I have something in the game after that the Dodger game I have

actually two bets you love this game I love this game I what I'm about to dish out some misprice 100

100 percent misprice I don't care that it's opening day I don't care anything like I'm going

forward if you see this number with this team which is the Dodgers and the first five team total is

two and a half two and a half usually this team is three and a half when going up against a

mediocre pitcher who Zach Galen is without a doubt mediocre now I can ride a lot

off that might be being generous yeah so I got this at minus 125 I still think you can get it out

there you'll have the search first five team totals and a couple books have it it's a misprice

now let me go through and talk about my process when it comes to first five team totals you get one

and a half the price doesn't matter it's a misprice because you're already betting on a team

that you like to have success one and a half is is nothing to teams usually average two runs the

first five over throughout the entire season two and a half is where the price does come into play

minus 125 great price for a team like the Dodgers who if they were playing cores right now could be

up to four and a half pending on the pitcher which I've seen which I won't bet four and a half is

insane there's no reason to touch that find something else don't bet on the game three and a half

it I have I'd have to love it I'd have to love it and have to be plus money two and a half minus

125 is nothing especially when the Dodgers have the highest rated offense on the day two elite

hitters six with strong ratings on batters hyphen box don't forget the hyphen zack ellen is the

has the worst pitcher rating among all active opening day starters dating the back to yesterday as

well highest hard contact allowed on the day second highest matchup ISO fifth lowest ground ball

rate 45% of his pitches are fastballs that fastball last year was a negative 3.4 per 100 only seven

percent of his pitches last season were above league average seven percent this spring 56

batters faced six thirty nine ERA almost eight five x-fib allowed nearly 50% hard contact on the

road last year allowed three and a half runs per outing five eleven ERA give me the two and a half

give me the two and a half page what's up and then obviously the trend of all trends when it comes

to trusting the hyphen is show hey otani when having an above point six rating I took us home

run today you could do whatever you want I'm going to ride off all the trends plus 300 boosted

to leave the art today through 78 games with at least a point six rating on batters hyphen box

records at least a hit 82% of the time two hits which you can get at near two to one price 33%

of the time two plus bases 61% of the time three plus bases 46% of the time two plus h to the

double R 77% of the time three plus h to the double R 54% of the time records a double 20% of time

leaves the yard 31% of the time it's a show hey day went above a point six

I'll take Amanda hot take Amanda my process my thought when seeing two and a half don't ever bet

that you bet the double or the home run you're going to get screwed if he just goes one for four

and just has a double so that's just how I view it and you're getting better value you'll probably

get show hey three to one on a double what he's okay oh yeah I'm just just just telling you like

there's always a better bet like texting your father anything okay thumbs up emoji dude I'm just

here to help me let me let me let me look let me look it's very funny just okay it was very

maybe a very funny so you can get if you didn't even have a boost show hey to hit a double

today's 360 and his home run 210 is the best price out there without a boost so if you see two and a

half bases don't do it don't do it you take the home run or the double because theoretically

you're banking on a double and an extra hit which is you're asking for a monster dead two hits

double single could get a triple you get screwed if you get screwed on a triple in a single

or two hits I think you can live with that while you're betting plus 360 for the double and plus

200 for the home run to be fair like it's show hey otani so a triple isn't completely out of the

equation just because no he is no like he's he's he can be a triple sitter he had nine of them last

year damn he's got a 2021 eight triples 22 six 23 eight 24 seven last year not career high with nine

about first five team total over noise but yeah I mean if you're my way I look at it if you're

losing through all of those other possibilities and you're only putting say half unit on both I think

a situation or a situation yeah yeah and hey we're all gonna lose we're gonna I'm gonna lose about

today without a doubt losing now dude it's all green track marks and money bag emoji is what do you

mean dude nobody loses sign up for my paywall dude nobody loses what are you talking about

all right last game of the day is the guardians Seattle Mariners

Amanda's favorite team by the way the Seattle Mariners so we got to keep our nicey mouths nicey

when it comes to Cal rallies big pooper oh so the big dumper ice cream at those fake oh it was good

I figured it was fake it was AI it's gonna ruin us it's gonna ruin us it's not real it's not real

can hurt you we got bots in the front lines yeah I mean yeah that's been sure for years

I don't I don't think Matt's wrong on the money line I do kind of who's pitching Logan Gilbert and

Tanner bibi I'm not I'm just not a Logan Gilbert believer I'm not a Gilbert truth or

is the is the lotters hit price really minus 120 I don't know if that's right like I'm sure

that the price is collected how it's listed but I just what's my guy George to hit a home run

what's Valera's home run uh not listed are you sure he's he sure he's even on the roster who knows

but he homeworked for me in the postseason last year well yeah that's like moment I don't even

think he's on the ice I don't even know it was minus 105 Jake I remember it now yeah

yeah Valera's I mean Matt you got a really good price because I'm seeing the lotter minus 140

which is like that's also correct I would if he's one awards thing really fast if chased a

lotter could ever stay healthy if chased a lotter can play 130 games he could win

rookie of the year I just don't like he has been so injured his entire career in the minors

he could absolutely do it but I just I can't trust that he's gonna stay healthy

and I know you don't have a lot of thoughts on that or any at all but I'm just he's somebody

let me put it this way anybody to looking to bet awards rookie of the year specifically chased

a lotter somebody I have hashtag circled but I just got to make sure he can stay healthy for a

couple of weeks first that's my a or key to even though Kevin McGonagall is probably just gonna win

do you know it's gonna be my favorite thing to say over the next five six weeks

between now hit me and then till May

Walnar whisper when we what when we know no that that's a given this is just something that's

temporary I will be the Walnar whisperer until the end of time right when we over react to

something or you have like a hot or something you're like anxious about over the next couple

weeks I can just go Jake Jake it's it's March it's it's April doesn't matter right now great can't

wait for you to say that I'm going to reach through this screen and strangle you

all right do you have anything for tomorrow that's a couple lines up for tomorrow

no no I have nothing for tomorrow all right well I do because the royals are plus 120 with cold

Reagan's on the mound against this horrible brave steam I will be taking the royals tomorrow

you know what maybe it's a beeny day

it's you every day is of any day there's never been a day that isn't of any day with you

hey hey stop

ah page you caught fire page is a brave span yeah they suck do like they're bad they're not a good

team all right they stack let's talk let's talk sweet 16 real quick and then we'll close this

out let's talk about your line I have the plus three if you want to see the right up it's

over on better day free play of the day is out go check it out oh actually I do have one more

baseball thing oh I okay I get a comment texted directly to me about the Texas Rangers

first thing and I think me and you are aligned on this is why Langford going to become the baseball

charizard that we know he can be I think yes I think this is the year for white like for you

have him to hit 30 home runs I think he could be a 30 30 guy like I think he's in all star this

year do you disagree no you get him false if he if he surpasses a seasonal average of 134 games

it's going to be a monster year oh yeah I love Langford I think yes he can be charizard I'll

answer that comment in a second is Josh Young going to stay healthy I don't please please

do you know what you know what got me excited because I love this Texas Rangers team I love

young yeah I mean we we have shoe mucker to win manager of the year what got me a little excited

is good friend Adam Rosenberg has Evan Carter I think ladder to 30 stolen bases I was like oh

I thought you were about to say home runs I was about to lose my mom no 30 stolen bases I don't

hate what was the price on all right that had to be massive I don't know probably I didn't

I don't have to be huge let me look I mean Josh Young I would love for him to stay healthy but like

he needs to stop taking ground balls for all four people forget former all star yeah I agree

and then finally will the vandy boys establish themselves as frontline starting to pitchers um lighter

might I don't know what the hell come our rockers doing but Jack lighter might first of all first

of all come our rocker isn't going to matter this year when they have that forehead and monster

they should just make him a closer right like they don't have a true closer he has the look of

a closer make him Mason Miller that's all I got sorry I'm trying to that's all my ranger stuff

Garc I don't know if you'll ever be baseball happy again I hope so because I love you 20 20 stolen

bases plus 110 30 plus 700 I don't hate it I don't hate that put the comment back up Matt

I parlayed McGonagall with Illinois tonight and over for the masters that's a jacuzon special

right there I thought you'd type that out rookie of the year Illinois basketball and a master's

future pilot that's a jacuzon special right there oh yeah watch it too much Jake content

let's go I'm pretty sure that's our guy Brian Giles hell yeah

Giles he won he won the giveaway he won the giveaway I was very happy to see you

yeah Brian I was very happy to see that McGonagall Illinois and the masters what a way to add it

oh yeah all right but tonight Illinois I'm scared I don't I wrote I don't care that it's in

Houston I don't care that Houston's played better in the city of Houston this season this is

going to be the biggest test Houston has had since playing Arizona and they lost they lost

underwoods gonna force tempo this is a team that almost scores 90 points a game and there's

one of the slowest teams in the country 60 the slowest slowest slowest slowest since in the last 10

games number two offense in the country since Jan one while enduring one of the toughest schedules

in the nation and meanwhile Houston over the last couple games can't get to the line which is

something Illinois does very well it not filing doesn't send anyone to the line number one since

Jan one and they have not been efficient on the inside I think it's going to bite him in the

rear end I don't care if this game was played on campus I got Illinois at three I think they

win I hope you're right I hope you're right I lean Iowa tonight too I think I will win a lot of

Nebraska yeah Arizona pounds Arkansas right my my my my CLV Warriors group chat has squad

written Arizona all right well twitch is taking us to ads because we're over the time

one and I guess so wrap it up Colby all right that was it we'll be back next week we'll be back

next week make sure to go check out the new MLB game center on better day dot com Jake Hassan

over at Twitter slash X at the Jake Hassan not done yet go to my socials not done for today yet

yeah I'll be there Colby M bets on Twitter Colby M bets literally anywhere you need to find

gambling stuff go check out my sub stack go check out Jake's sub stack we'll be back next week

everyone say something nice about Matt down below presented by Fandall that's all the ads we

have here love you guys best of luck today the best season of the year is and one last thing one

little advice if somebody hasn't been talking baseball all year long like some of us here in the

space don't think about tailing them on anything because they don't care about the sport only tell us

don't tell anybody else I'm just saying don't even listen to them because they don't even

acknowledge the sport because there's only baseball on acknowledge people that genuinely care

about something that is all in the show Matt love you all and it