Ohio State Around the Shoe: Buckeyes' tough football schedule & what to make of their 9.5 win total

Welcome back to the Bill and

Doug show. It's around the shoe

Douglas and Bill land is joined

every Monday by two outstanding

media members and boy, do we have

some big hitters this week.

Ari Wasserman from on three Matt

Fortuna from the inside zone.

We're doing college football over

underwind totals. They're out on

fan dual. We'll take a big picture.

Look at the sport. We're going to

talk about Ohio State a couple

other teams, but Ari, you have been

with us on the Bill and Doug show

before you haven't been on around

the shoe. Thanks for being here,

man. It's always a pleasure to be

here guys. Love the logo. Love that

it's the bad show still because

and is just, you know, replacing

Ari. It works. You guys do a great

show, a great job and love spending

time with you anytime I can't.

Loved to have you here and Matt

Fortuna, you're back for another

run at it. You didn't pay a lot

on us after you did the first one.

So thanks for coming back, man.

We made some outlandish big

and last time I was on the show

and maybe we'll, we'll have something

simpler cooking up here with over

underwind totals. We are getting

outlandish here. So we're going to

start with the Ohio State topic

because I do find Ohio State's wind

total. These are coming off of

fan dual. Maybe the most interesting

in the country, Ohio State is at

9.5 wins for the season as they're

over underwind total. They do have an

interesting schedule, but Ari, as you

think about this 9.5 for Ohio State,

what's the word or phrase you would

use to describe what you think of

this number for the buck, guys?

Yes, please. I looked this up and

you guys know having worked with

me so for so many years. I'm not

good at research, but I looked this up.

And I'm sure you know what was

off the top of your head just

institutionally, and I should have.

But when's the last time Ohio State

did not win 10 regular season games?

And you know the answer. It was the

fickle disaster in 2011, right?

I get that they're playing Texas, and

I get that their schedule is

different now that the expansion has

occurred. I have a hard time

envisioning Ohio State losing three

times in a regular season. Just

period. And I know that they have a

lot of turnover. And you know, it's

a different world now. And maybe

I'm just being fooled by past, which

is the number one sin of the Doug

Bill show, right? Using past to rely

on the future. What has to happen

for Ohio State to lose three times?

Some version of disaster, probably

no matter how hard the schedule is,

right? So that's kind of what you're

saying, right? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

So I would take the over very

confidently, unless it's like minus

175, it might be, you know, how they

get kind of minus 158 minus 158. See

that, you know, you're paying a

little bit of a juice there, because

I think Vegas is trying to get

people to bet the under, but like I

do think that, you know, it's a

very like 10 and 2 isn't a good year

for them. So, you know, if you're

bringing back a Heisman finalist

quarterback and the best player in

the country and certainly at his

position and you have that track record,

like I can't imagine how it would

not land at least 10. Yeah. Okay.

So are you already on it? Are you

now? No. Not yet. I don't like

laying those types of odds in the

offseason. Although I do want to

feel like it's going like it's

definitely going to cash. But I

have to really sink my teeth

into what I'm already. I've got

women's basketball games that we're

we're crushing. You know, one thing

at a time, NBA futures out there,

we're we're we're shogging along,

but usually around June and May is

when I really think my teeth in the

future action. Okay. All right.

Mathpart, math, fortuna. You you you

already like again, this is one of

those. This is not a gambling show,

but when you get into some of these

over under sometimes the juice is so

heavy each way, like just looking at

the numbers a little skewed. But

still 9.5 is the number. Matt,

what do you think of it? I don't

see how this doesn't cash. I mean, it's

I think I said this off air. We're

we're in the process of moving and buying

a house. So I'm not going to light

now because I'm kind of my dollars. But

maybe I should, right? And just put

everything I have left on this. And

that will pay for the whole thing. I

just don't see a scenario where

they go 9 and 3 or worse. I mean,

they're paying Matt Patricia. What

you guys have said, 375? Like 75

million dollars.

Hey, your coach is that kind of

money to go 9 and 3. I don't know

what the like I don't care what the

schedule is. I think you wrote over

the weekend, Doug. They've got five

like quote unquote tough games.

They would have to go two and three

in those tough games for this not to

cash. And I don't even look at

them as five tough game. Like I know

Michigan is what it is, but I still

have a hard time seeing them losing

in Michigan this year, especially

at home. I have a hard time seeing

them losing to USC. And then it's

basically, can you go one in two

against Texas, Indiana, and Oregon?

And the Oregon game is at home. And I

have a hard time seeing Ohio State

losing that game. November 1st,

November 7th. It's early November.

I have a hard time seeing Ohio State

losing that game at home in November.

So give me 10 plus all the way.

I'd be surprised if this number

isn't much higher at other sports

books, whatever they eventually

opened there.

Free season over under totals.

I understand there's some juice

involved here, but I don't.

If you're betting the under on this,

like what do you know that we know?

Is why I know? Like, well,

this joint and have like a mysterious

injury we don't know about.

Like I just, and even then,

like, this is a Ohio State.

They have talent in that quarterback

room and across the roster.

The idea of the not of this roster,

even with this schedule,

winning anything less than 10 games.

I still have a hard time seeing that happening.

Here's where I get confused, guys.

Yep, because it may be not confusion,

but it's an interesting thought process.

If you're an Ohio State person,

you understand more than anything

that the Michigan game is its own entity, right?

Like you can't use the Michigan game

to analyze other things,

because it's such its own independent.

But if you look back at Ryan Day's tenure,

and basically the entirety

of the Ohio State's fear that I've covered since 2010,

I can only come up with two games

outside of the Michigan game

that Ohio State lost when it wasn't supposed to.

And those are the Iowa Purdue games

back-to-back years towards the end of Urban Myers tenure.

So if you're Ryan Day in your analyzing Ryan Day,

there were some Michigan games that I believe

that he lost during that four-year stretch

that they should not have lost.

They lost to an inferior team in the fourth attempt.

He has not shown any

of the other things that he's not prone

to losing to overmapped opponents.

So like a lot of times where you get kind of hooked

in these overunders is when a team loses to a team

that you don't think they could possibly lose

to where it comes out of nowhere or they're upset.

Ohio State doesn't do that.

What was the closest one that they've even had

during his tenure there?

Oregon, right?

21 years ago?

Been Oregon, but that was a good team, right?

So yeah, the Nebraska game two years ago,

if they would have lost that game,

would have been the most a characteristic loss

of his entire tenure outside of Michigan.

So if you're able to remove like games like Illinois,

you know, looking at their schedule,

they're not going to lose to Northwestern.

They're probably not going to lose at Nebraska, right?

If you can just automatically qualify those games as wins,

which I think you can, based on what we've seen from him,

then you are able to whittle it down

the way Matt did and it's just like,

are they going to go one and two in their biggest games?

And probably not, right?

Yeah, yeah.

Yeah, and that is like among the things that Ryan

Day has done very well is not lose to games like that.

Matt, you're right.

That Oregon game, you know,

Kavon, Tibido didn't play in that game

and like their quarterback was kind of,

if he was, oh, it's still a pretty weird one,

Landis, right?

That Oregon loss.

But that Oregon team was decent, right?

But day hasn't lost that good.

They weren't that good.

You two talked about them twice.

2021, they weren't that good.

Ohio State lost it.

Yeah.

All right, Bill, what's your phrase to describe this here?

Yeah, I, I, I, I guess I would say like,

I'm not, I'm not as dismissive of this as,

as Matt and Ari are.

Like I, I can, I can see three losses here.

Like they're not Texas, Indiana,

Oregon aren't overmatched opponents.

Those are games.

Ohio State can lose.

Ohio State has lost to Michigan four times on a Ryan Day.

Like they can lose that game.

I don't know what to make of the rivalry at the moment

because of all the change at Michigan

and there's a lot I think on the mental side of things

that contribute it to the, the slump against Michigan

with Ryan Day that I, I think it's probably reasonable

to believe that he's over, but I'd like,

I'd like to see it before I, I started assuming that,

but that was a heck of a win up in Ann Arbor

for Ohio State last year.

I don't think Iowa's particularly good,

but the last time I saw Ohio State play in Iowa,

they got their butts kicked.

So like I like that's, they haven't played there since 2017

with when Iowa boat raised them.

So and that's a really tough place to play.

Iowa gave Oregon and Indiana two awesome games

in Connecticut last year.

So I don't think I'd pick Ohio State to go nine and three.

We did our playoff picks and I wasn't quite there,

but I can absolutely see a scenario

where it happens against this schedule.

Because even like at Texas,

the last time Ohio State played like a marquee

non-conference game on the road,

they won because the other team had 10 guys

on the field on the last play, right?

Like it's not, I don't think like this is a slam

donk Ohio State's win in 10 games

because Ohio State always wins 10 games kind of year.

I think there's enough turnover on the roster

and this is one hell of a slate there staring at that.

If I had to bet, if somebody forced me to bet it,

I would probably say Ohio State still finds a way

to win 10 games, but this makes a lot of sense to me,

looking at what they have in front of them

and sort of what's happened this off season

in terms of the roster.

Well, secure house first and Matt, I don't want you to.

I will say, I overlooked that Iowa gave

and I think I was actually probably on the road

a tougher opponent than USC and maybe even Michigan.

I just felt, and I know there's a new situation in Michigan,

but like I think you guys were all there.

I was there.

That felt like a okay like this chapter of us tripping over

ourselves against Michigan is over.

Michigan's under, protect the 50 yard line

because they're trying so hard to hang on to the last four years.

And it's like, no, it's over, it's over.

Like Ryan Day shed that, like they're the better team,

they're the better program,

and it will play out that way from here on out.

I think they closed, my theory on that

is that they closed the chapter on the Michigan stuff

in Atlanta in January.

I think that once they won the national title,

that one, yeah.

Yes, but you still got, like there's still that, like,

what they they turned it over on their first,

oh my god, like here we go.

Yeah, I know it feels like that for the first quarter for sure,

but like, you know, the game actually played out the way

I thought the previous one should have played out.

Like if you take what you said and say like Michigan's

its own entity and then like you do the reverse of that

and say, okay, like last year's three loss,

or excuse me, two loss Michigan against unfeet Ohio State.

Let's just look at these games on paper.

What do you think's going to happen?

We probably all would have said something like 27 to 9,

independent of the rivalry.

And that's not what was in the Iowa on the road.

It's just not going to happen.

Like I understand it's, they're not going to lose the game

to Iowa on the road.

That's one more tough one that takes something out of you.

Yeah, yeah.

Kirk Ferenc's bulletin board, man.

Ari Wasserman doesn't think the fight in fairness

is going to do it.

I've written some bad things in the past.

Yeah, about Iowa.

You can put it up there.

I don't know.

This is an over under show.

There are nine teams that have a by-fand duel

and over under win total of 9.5 or higher.

9.5 wins or higher this year.

Nine teams in the power four.

Ohio State's one of them.

And then Ohio State plays three of the other eight.

So that's what we're talking about with Indiana, Oregon, and Texas.

It is that level.

I'll be curious when we get to the strengths of schedule

and all that stuff, like how high Ohio State's is.

Because again, just looking at win totals, Indiana and Oregon,

they played 10.5, Texas 9.5, Michigan, USC, 8.5.

Illinois, Iowa, 7.5.

So there's a lot of winning teams on this schedule.

But I do, I think my phrase would be it's a little bit

of an over anticipation of the new world.

And by that, there is a conversation, I think,

in the Ohio State fan base.

And I think generally in college football,

maybe you guys agree with this,

that if we're going to have the better teams playing each other

and maybe the big 10 wants to make good games,

the SEC's playing nine conference games now

that if you still are going to keep the non-conference games

like Ohio State, Texas,

you just have to get a little accustomed

to good teams losing more.

Matt, do you think that that's something

that like college football and maybe college football fan bases

generally need to be prepared more,

especially maybe as we, if we eventually creep towards a super league,

that's what it's going to be, right?

Then I feel like that is a little bit of a conversation

in the Ohio State fan base.

Hey, you're playing good teams you might lose.

Yeah, I mean, I think, look, the fact of Ohio State

wanted all losing to Michigan and losing two games two years ago

in this era is indicative enough.

But also, and I think you pointed this out,

the same website that has them one in nine and a half games

this year has them as a favorite win national title.

So, I'm not saying the regular season doesn't matter.

It certainly matters when you're betting overunders.

But I do think, especially in a league like the big 10

with such imbalanced schedules,

you need to take a closer eye at this.

Like, I do think Ohio State's more exception than rule,

but I also don't look at like history and say,

well, they haven't lost three games since 2011.

So they're not going to do it now.

Like, no, what happened in 2011 is a completely different big 10,

completely different college football structure than what 2026 is.

So I don't think that applies to this.

Same way, like, I would look at Iowa every year and be like,

well, of course, they're going to go over seven and a half.

They go eight and four every year and it's like,

well, they're not playing a West schedule anymore.

They might not.

Conversely, SEC, nine game schedules.

I think some of those schools are in for a rude awakening.

Delicious.

I can't wait.

Can I squeeze a question in here that doesn't have anything to do with win

totals, but I just I didn't realize that Ohio State was now the betting

favorite to be the national champion on Fandall.

What has happened in the last three weeks that Ohio State has gone?

I think Ohio State was plus seven 50 and Notre Dame was the favorite.

And now Ohio State is plus five 50 and Notre Dame is plus seven 50.

Like, yeah, that's something happened that Marcus Freeman decided

was going to coach the New York Giants or something.

In the last three weeks, but I know.

Well, on on draft Kings, I also think there's like a four way tie at plus seven hundred

that that Fandall has Ohio State as the over as kind of as a favorite.

I think it's like Indiana or Indiana, Texas Notre Dame Ohio State are tied on draft

Kings. But anyway, land is to your point.

Yeah, I don't know.

Are you a theory?

I think that people just like betting on Ohio State because they're consistent.

The thing that I'm kind of trying to work people are getting their

tax returns and putting it on Ohio State.

Yeah, and I also don't know if like action on Ohio State would move at that much.

But like it is kind of just like the the steady horse really a team that you know

by and large is at least going to make the field.

So that makes sense.

The thing that I'm kind of struggling with as somebody who famously overlooked Indiana's

capability at this time last year is are we now taking Indiana's

accomplishment from last season and over valuing Indiana going into next year.

Because they lost you know a lot of their best players and I think sustainability

is a really difficult thing in this day and age obviously.

And like I'm assuming they'll be very good.

But like the Indiana is a favorite to win the national title next year.

Stuff kind of freaks me out a little bit.

I don't know why that's the case.

So and they're win totals with win higher than Ohio State's granted they don't play Texas.

But you know it is kind of staggering to see that they would be from a betting standpoint.

So heavily favored over teams that you know might have more

talent returning than they do.

So Indie I mean let's say I know Kurt Sagnetti's a wizard.

And I know that you're not going to make a lot of money betting against that man clearly.

But it seems like a little bit of an over value for them.

It's like Ohio State has to play Indiana next year.

Yeah, but like who are we more comfortable with right now?

Of like who's going to have better players in the field at this point?

Yes, you're like how much is that overcompensating?

Because they got taken to the woodshed by anyone who took them last year.

Well, I mean they were plus 100 to win all last year.

Were they not?

I don't want to one.

Yeah, 101.

Yeah, 100 to one.

Yeah, which is insane.

Even coming off.

I mean they were a very good program.

I'm not saying I or anyone thought they'd win it all last year.

But they made the playoff here before.

I mean it makes me feel really stupid to have not seen that.

Me too.

We all should have been able to see that.

And maybe you know the hindsight deal.

But like it's just like they brought back

most of the team that already made the playoff.

Like that is an insanely good value that should have been taken by me last year.

And I did not see it.

Yeah, but it is interesting as we bring up the idea that sort of the divide between

Ohio State's over under win total and their national championship odds.

Landis, do you think that nine and three Ohio State national champions

is sort of like a reasonable thing to ponder?

Yeah, absolutely do.

Because I think I think there's that there's

I don't know that every version of nine and three Ohio State gets to the playoff.

But I think most versions of nine and three Ohio State get to the playoff.

And then once that teams in there, they can absolutely go win the whole thing.

We just saw them do it two years ago.

So yeah, I it's like a weird thing to wrap your mind around.

But yes, I think it's it's very possible that we see that.

You know, this is a thing that drives me insane to about the bull.

And we let it cost on the show.

Sorry.

The are we bills achieve content officer?

Can our costs are no.

Don't can bring you up.

This will be interesting to watch.

I think one here or there's fun.

I'd say bull crap.

Like it.

The discussion of like should we just not play anybody good

and we get our schedules and look at all the national champions.

You don't play tough non conference games.

It's like.

We have what one year of the right seating of the 12 team error.

Like I think people think that if you're nine and three,

you're automatically disqualified.

And it's like it's a net and at the ability

that a team at some point will be nine and three and make the playoff.

And the team that is nine and three and makes the playoff will be the team

that played a tough non conference game and had a really tough schedule.

That's that that you just pulled.

Doug.

I think states it perfectly, which is you know,

there's a finite amount of teams that have nine and a half

wind totals that you know,

Ohio State's playing three of those teams like that.

You know, that kind of opened my eyes a little bit more of like,

hey, maybe like yes, please was a little bit more of an overstep

and I'm more in the landest territory.

But yeah, the regular season's different

and the talent harboring is certainly changing.

And you know, Ohio State didn't win the national championship last year,

despite having, you know, with the NFL draft,

it's going to tell us might be one of the most talented teams of all time.

So are they going to have that talent advantage?

I'm sure they will to a certain extent,

but I don't know if it's going to be as lopsided as it was even last year or anymore.

And I do think, you know,

certainly there were people saying this during the season when Ohio State was 12

and no in the regular season and, you know, Penn State fell apart and wasn't that

difficult of a game and they had the Texas game early.

But Ohio State's schedule wasn't that difficult.

And I do think there is some portion of the Ohio State fan base.

That's a little scarred by that that maybe they didn't feel in the moment.

But looking back, they do think,

hey, Ohio State wasn't tested enough.

And then they lost their two postseason games.

I think Matt, there's a portion of Ohio State fans

who would almost embrace a nine and three regular season.

If it toughens, oh, we got a landest wrinkle in brace.

Embrace is not the word.

I would use.

Yeah, I can't wait to go on to lose.

But hope that if they feel like it's toughening,

like if they're still going to get in and it's hardening them and toughening them up

for the postseason that maybe are and maybe not embraced nine and three.

But if it's like 10 and two and they play some bangers and it's like, man,

like they played some excellent teams.

They're battle tested.

And that again, Matt, I think is maybe what this air of college football,

maybe that's what everybody needs to be prepared for.

And maybe battle tested is a good thing.

10 and two, as long as one of those two is not Michigan, maybe.

Here's my question.

I mean, let's say Ohio State goes nine and three and they lose three close games to

Texas, Oregon, Indiana.

And there's one spot left and you're looking at 10 and two Penn State,

which plays nobody.

But we'll be a big 10 team with a better record.

And we know how the humans who are on this committee tend to react.

They have to they have to win one of those tough games and lose a weird one to get in.

They have to have a quality win in there.

They can't do that.

I mean, Texas, Texas, Texas, Texas, how good Michigan, they got a lot of help.

Yeah.

How good is USC?

How good is Michigan?

How good is Iowa?

How good is the second tier of Ohio State wins would matter, I think?

But I think to be nine and three, you have to have a tier one win still.

But maybe, you know, I think that getting in not to interrupt you, Matt,

but getting in is every bit to do with what's around you as well.

So like that 10 and two, nine and three comparison.

I think in order for a nine and three team to overtake a 10 and two team,

they have to have, well, we beat the number three team in the country too.

And that's my theory.

But go ahead, Matt.

Sorry, I didn't mean to.

No, I agree.

I just.

Texas had gave Texas A&M their only loss of the year.

They kept complaining that they got left out because they played Ohio State.

Well, no, they got left out because they lost to a terrible Florida team.

And they did what were tickerly good and a lot of their wins, right?

They need a miracle to beat Mississippi State.

You know, they almost blew it against Vanderbilt late.

I just think as long as humans are on this committee, for as long as they've been on this committee,

their first instinct is to look at the lost column.

And then to kind of back analyze it from there.

And Texas sitting in last year will deserve it.

But Penn State schedules a joke.

I mean, they've got a whole new roster, a whole new coaching staff.

And yet, they're overunders also nine and a half.

As it should be because they should go 10 and two at worse with that schedule as long as they're healthy.

Texas's resume last year was not good enough to get into last year's field.

Texas's resume last year would be good enough in other years to get in.

Like, I think that that's the mistake that people make.

They're like, well, Texas got left out last year.

So like they have, you know, I don't know how much you can take from

but beating a top five team and handing them their only loss,

losing to Ohio State by seven on the road and a pretty close game there at the end.

And, you know, having as many quality wins as they did,

we'll get a team like that.

And eventually it didn't work out for them last year,

but they, they will, like, that's a good enough resume in some year moving forward.

And that's why I hate that argument because year before,

the only reason we were talking about South Carolina beat on bubbles,

because they won at Clemson and on conference game at the end of the year.

They're not even on anyone's radar if they don't play that game.

But they played that game.

They upset them and all of a sudden, it's like,

hey, should South Carolina be in and then Illinois beat some?

Because that's what big 10 does the SEC, right, Doug?

But I just think these games don't matter.

Don't make me get my sword out.

So listen, this is the other thing that I think is possibly happening with Ohio State is,

there's justifiably a lot of attention on, as I already mentioned,

the NFL guys are going to put every five first round picks.

Bill Connelly's returning production is out on ESPN as we record this on a Monday,

which is a wonderful day in college football.

Of the 138 FBS teams, Ohio State's 31st in returning production.

Now, they lost a lot off their defense.

They're eighth in offensive returning production.

They have their quarterback back.

They have the best receiver in college football back.

They have their main running back back.

And they have four.

They're five awesome months of line starters back.

So I do think that, again, if you're taking a, just like,

oh, they lost a lot of talent.

They did.

And they're going to have a hard time replacing some of those defensive guys.

But there is a, there is a core landess of offensive experience.

That is back that I think, maybe if you're thinking like tough schedule,

they lost a lot.

Nine and three.

They actually have some key guys back.

They do.

But if you want to play that game, Texas is sixth.

Oregon's 11th.

USC is 13th.

I'll tell you what, nine and three landess is loading up here, brother.

Uh, nine and three, like, I, I can't, now I can't wait till like the last weekend in August.

We're loading up for nine and three landess Ohio State National Champion.

Well, here's nine and three national champs.

Let's go.

I think look ahead line for Ohio State at Texas is Ohio State minus three,

which makes no sense to me.

So I actually think that I think they're, I don't think that's right.

I think Ohio State, I think Ohio State is too close to that.

Oh, they're dogs.

It's Texas minus two and a half.

Yeah.

Okay.

Yeah.

Still, I think I would take Texas.

Kim Coleman.

You love Kim Coleman.

Um, I love him.

I took him in our Heisman draft.

Remember I do.

Let's do remember our terrible Heisman draft.

The Heisman draft was awful.

So, uh, so I think in the end to me, it's, it, this is, I think it's understandable,

but a little bit of an over adjustment to the tough schedule is what I would say about the nine and five.

That was a good Ohio State discussion.

We appreciate having like people who know Ohio State like you guys do,

but also like know the rest of the sport and aren't knee deep only in the buck eyes.

But we will shift to some other teams.

Matt, we'll start with you because I think Notre Dame is so interesting here.

There are two teams who have the highest win totals on Fandall.

They are Texas Tech and Notre Dame, both are at 11 and a half.

So what do you think of that idea for the fighting Irish, Matt?

What word or phrase would you use to describe that 11.5 win total for Notre Dame?

Insane.

Got that.

I'll understand.

I'm also understandable.

You mentioned Bill Connolly.

Who's number one on that list?

He put out today.

Notre Dame number one and number one is not exactly murderous row.

And by the way, the under if you wanted to do it is minus 200.

So there is incentive to go over there.

I think this is the best team in the country.

I think they should win the national championship this year.

Will that happen?

I don't know.

I also don't know how comfortable they are kind of embracing that target.

We'll see.

They certainly got a chip on their shoulder with the way things ended last year.

But they got to go out and prove it.

And the world record is Freeman as a player as a coach.

He's been a head coach in Notre Dame for four years now.

Two of those four years, he started 0 and 2.

The other two years, he had a terrible September loss in Northern Illinois.

And he had, I don't want to call it a terrible loss to Ohio State,

but it's bad of a loss to Ohio State as you can have because you're in position to win.

And he put time men on the field.

So those starts have been the bugaboo for this regime.

You look at the schedule this year.

They've lost the worst teams before.

I have a hard time seeing them losing any of these September games.

I think mid season at BYU.

Late season at home against Miami.

And they play SMU who I think is a talented team as well.

But they should be, I mean,

they'll be double digit favorites in at least 10 of their 12 games.

And they'll be favorites probably in all 12.

I don't know if I'd put my money on the over because I just,

it's called Trip Ball.

There are a lot of variables, particularly in 12 team eras.

You mentioned Doug, the idea of them going undefeated.

Like that's just not a healthy way to live if you've got money on the line.

But I don't see a game on there that they are going to or should lose.

Okay.

Landis, what do you think of this?

Yeah, I say this as someone who had, I had Notre Dame like as the one

seed in our first playoff picks is I kind of think they're not going to lose.

But this also, it feels like too big of an ask.

It's like to actually like want to put, put money down on it, I think.

For every, all the reasons Matt said, right?

Like there, there, there's been too many issues or instances of Marcus Freeman

losing a game that he shouldn't lose.

And like I don't, I don't think that's going to pop up in a way that like

keeps Notre Dame from making the playoff, but running the table.

Like even against like somewhat easy schedules is still a pretty difficult thing to pull off.

It's not like it happens regularly.

And Marcus Freeman has yet to do that.

Eight wins, nine wins, 11 wins and 10 wins in a regular season in his four years of that coach.

Like this, this is asking him to do something he's never done before.

I think they're capable of it because I, as we sit here right now,

I do kind of think they're the best team in the country and seeing that returning

production right can come out today, you know, fortifies that a little bit.

But I do think Miami's tricky enough.

I think BYU's tricky enough.

Maybe Wisconsin on a neutral to start the year is tricky enough.

I don't know your, you like Wisconsin quite a bit.

So I kind of see a lot like, I can see 11 and one like rather easily, I think.

So it's like to say that they're going to go undefeated to me.

It's just like I would maybe pump the brakes a little bit on that.

All right, I have a trivia question here for you guys.

There are four power conference teams that have the lowest projected win total on

Fandule at 3.5 as they're over under.

Do you know how many of them Notre Dame plays of those four?

All of them, I'm guessing.

All of them.

All of them.

So like,

Oh, yeah, this is a pretty good question.

Go, go, go.

Purdue, Michigan State, Stanford and BC.

And BC.

Oh, Syracuse is not on there, huh?

And then Syracuse is at 4.5.

So and then also UNC is at 4.5.

So like they are going to play like half their schedule against teams that are terrible.

My word for this would be like impossibly perfect.

Like I like, so Matt, this is this is this is the main thing.

Is it reasonable to just say Marcus Freeman still sort of has this in his coaching DNA?

They're going to stub their toe in a game they shouldn't because it has happened before.

Or is that a younger coach situationally?

You get it.

Don't hold that against him in this way.

No, I think it's perfectly fair.

Now, do I think it'll always be that way?

No, and this would be a perfect year to reverse that trend,

but it's been a head coach for four years and it's happened all four years.

So I think it's perfectly reasonable.

By the way, another trivia for the date of their first game,

they play against someone who had a winning record last year.

Oh, never.

No, what is it?

No, that'd be why wow.

Okay.

Yeah.

So that is the Wisconsin rice Michigan state,

Purdue, North Carolina, Stanford start to the season.

Now, rice, they go bowling at five and eight,

but the others are not.

Yeah.

Okay.

All right.

So if you if you have that in your head at all with Marcus Freeman,

it's like, you can't go.

You can't bet on 12.

I mean, there's like one or two one defeated teams every year.

That's it.

I mean, this is what like it's Notre Dame going to be the one undefeated team

or one of the two undefeated teams.

Like that's what you're like, it's so difficult to do.

Even if your schedule's not that hard,

because probably you have a bad Saturday.

Ari, what's your description here?

Mine is just obviously because what's the other like what's if it's not

11 and a half and it's 10 and a half and then you're just like in the, you know,

or a lot of you're not going to lose money if you bet it.

Like, yeah, it's just like you you can't go down any more from there

because the schedule's so bad.

So like I like that's what I was anticipating.

But yes, like just to echo everything, you know,

I mean, I agree with that.

It's like you're basically betting is Marcus Freeman going to get upset or not

and do you believe he's passed that?

So I you know, I think that Notre Dame is a very good team.

I thought they were a very good team last year.

They don't play anybody good.

And I think that that actually is

crappy for the fans because you know,

part of the experience is enjoying big games and looking forward to something.

And it's just like even if they end up losing a game, they shouldn't.

That's not a fun experience because they're still going to make the play off and be 11

and one at the very worst.

But you know, in terms of whether I would bet this or not,

I probably would not bet it because it's just, you know,

you never know when it's going to pop up but going on to feed like Landis said,

it's very hard no matter who you are or who you play.

This I do think has, I mean, because Notre Dame and Ohio State have a lot in common.

I think it's including the fact that they're Notre Dame's coach by the Ohio State alum.

But like I do think it's easy to compare these teams and Landis,

I could see us just like getting to the point of

Notre Dame's into playoff at 12 and 0.

Ohio State's in the playoff at 10 and 2 or 9 and 3.

And like, who would you rather be?

Would you rather be this like steam roller of a team that maybe hasn't been tested?

That is very similar to Ohio State a year ago.

Or would you rather be an Ohio State team that took a couple of losses,

but played multiple playoff teams and maybe is more prepared for it.

And this might be a good test case.

If the big 10 championship game happened in October,

does Ohio State lose to Miami?

I think maybe not.

Yeah, I think maybe not.

I kind of get what you're saying there.

I do, I do.

Because they beat them in the same exact way, right?

I mean, it was like the same deal.

And I think there was, I think there was enough like wonkiness with Ohio State's offensive staff

at the time of the Indiana loss,

that they used that to rationalize a lot of what happened.

Rather than like really looking at them before they played Miami.

But I also don't know with what happened if you can fix what happened,

because it was a personnel issue, not a scheme issue, right?

There were times throughout the regular season where it felt like we were on the verge

of some offensive line shuffling that never really happened.

I think part of that was because of injury.

I think had the Indiana game happened in the same fashion it did,

but in October, Ohio State would have reworked its offensive line a little bit.

And bit more.

Yeah, but you would rather play that tough game earlier in the year.

And even like, because like we used to say this when we were together, guys.

Remember, what was the number one criticism of Urban Meyer?

It took a drastic loss or something crazy to happen for him to adjust to it.

That's like Marcus Freeman right now.

Yeah, so I think it was true of Ryan Day in 2024.

I think it's true of all engineering defense when they lost the Oregon.

You know, you don't, if you're not healthy,

you don't really make the health change until you go to the doctor

and he tells you something's wrong, right?

Like it's like every, every once human nature to try to look past things

and think the best of it when you're not paying the consequences for that thing.

But I think that like the battle-tested thing is not so much

you know, how much tougher is your team having experienced that?

It's what can your coaches glean off of playing teams that are capable of beating you

in order to make sure that when you play a team like that again,

you don't lose in the same exact fashion.

Like that's like, it's like a self-discovery thing more than it is a,

you know, attitude thing.

And you should be able to lose.

You don't have to lose, exactly.

You should be able to do it.

You should be able to win and do it.

But sometimes it's hard, Landis, right?

I agree with you.

You shouldn't have to lose and do it.

But that's what it's like in the end,

like almost losing to Iowa and almost losing to Penn State

and playing like an absolute dogfight with Oregon in the regular season.

I don't cover Indiana.

I know how to imagine they would say like that made them better for the postseason

because they learned some stuff about themselves.

It wasn't just at Ohio State won every game and played in the regular season

last year.

It's like they didn't have to break a sweat in winning every game they won.

So even if you're boring and a fan perspective,

like wouldn't you even rather,

like I know that you would never admit that you would rather lose a game

because losing sucks.

But from an experienced standpoint,

if every season is its own living organism,

don't you want there to be a low and a high and a story arc?

And like the reason why we watch these games

for the basic level is entertainment.

And I found Ohio State's season to be quite boring last year.

Yeah.

By the way, Doug, just to say it's your question,

who would you rather be?

12 and 0 in our name or 10 to Ohio State?

The answer this year is their name

because they have the ghosts of blue holes on their side

and he will not be wishing well wishes on Ryan Day.

Yeah, and I don't think that Notre Dame

wants to be 10 and 2 ever again.

So that's well.

That's true.

That's true.

Matt, before we leave Notre Dame here,

we know with the ACC scheduling agreement,

and then you look at these other games,

the big 10 teams that are playing

or was constant Michigan State and Purdue,

they're playing rice,

they're playing, we know that we know

they're always going to play Navy.

Is this just a blip and this is the way it is?

Or like do you look at this schedule

and think to yourself like,

man, Notre Dame's got to do something here

and make sure they're playing a couple more more key games,

especially in a world where they're not playing USC at the moment

every season?

Yeah, I think they got to do something.

I don't know what that something is,

so I don't want to sit here and act like I have all the answers

because like when you choose to be an independent,

this is a situation you put yourself in

and as more and more conferences play,

more conference games,

your inventory dries up.

But, you know, the ACC has not held up its end of the bargain

from a competitive standpoint.

Obviously, Miami has, but a few others have.

I mean, they just announced a 12-year

schedule, a 12-year arrangement with Clemson.

Is that going to help them with the way Clemson's been lately?

I don't know, and again, 12 years is a long time.

A lot can change over the course of that,

that's scheduling agreement.

But I also would say when this agreement was agreed to in 2012,

the middle of the 2012 season,

Notre Dame was not Notre Dame yet, right?

Like, they were lost in the wilderness as a program,

Brian Kelly, that was the middle of the famous 12 and 0 season

where he got them back and they've never really been the same since then.

So, Notre Dame has kind of outgrown this agreement, in my opinion,

the ACC, despite having a Clemson run here,

a Florida State run there, and now Miami being the King of the Hill

in that conference, they've not, you know, collectively held up

their end of the bargain.

I mean, I shared the story on the independent podcast,

you know, I spoke to someone high up at Wake Forest,

the National Title game this year, and said, Matt,

because of me, and you can probably guess what I'm talking to here,

if you look it up, we have the fifth highest payer on the ACC at Wake Forest.

That should never happen.

We are the smallest football playing school in the country,

powerful football playing school in the country.

Like, what's everyone else here doing to keep up and to make this a powerful football conference?

And Miami certainly made a lot of enemies in that league,

but they're doing what they got to do to succeed on the football field.

I'm not sure we're seeing that elsewhere in that league right now.

And look, maybe you could say North Carolina tried, right?

They went out and hired Bill Bell check.

It may have been misguided and may not be working,

but they did try.

But if you're Notre Dame, you look at your schedule right now,

and it's filled with ACC teams outside of Miami,

and maybe SMU this year, there's not a whole lot of meat on that boat.

And they've got some future series against mostly SEC teams

that should be pretty good, right?

Texas, Alabama, Auburn and Florida, we'll see.

But when you lose USC, I mean,

Notre Dame needed USC more than USC,

near Notre Dame.

That was, at the end of the day, that was the fact of the situation.

And I actually think Notre Dame may have upgraded just this year,

because I think at BYU might be a tougher game

than at USC would be this year.

But long term, that's a whole Notre Dame schedule

that they're going to have to make up for.

And I think Clemson fills it a little bit,

but not all the way.

Yeah.

Okay, that's a good discussion.

We're going to move to some more win total stuff.

And Lannis, we'll start with you.

There are three teams that have win totals of 10.5.

As we said, there are the two teams at the top

in Notre Dame and Texas Tech, or at 11.5.

At 10.5 wins are Indiana, Oregon, and Miami.

Bill, who do you like more to go over of those three teams?

Miami, for all of the reasons Matt started to kind of lay out there.

I just think the ACC is bad.

Like it's like, what through Miami's schedule

and tried to like say like, oh, who might they lose to?

And it's like at Notre Dame.

And then I don't really know what else.

Like at Clemson,

still see at Clemson being a test right now,

Virginia Tech at the end of the year,

if James Franklin has some stuff figured out,

maybe that's an interesting game,

but I just think, especially compared to those other two.

Like Indiana and Oregon both play Ohio State,

Michigan, USC in Washington.

And, you know, I could see both teams

certainly being 11 and one.

But that just seems like there's a lot more potential

kind of pitfalls on that schedule than there are on Miami's.

And I think Miami is like not super high

in returning production,

but like bring back Malachite Tony,

bring back Mark Fletcher.

I think you probably upgraded a quarterback with Arian Mensa.

I think there are a lot of young guys on that defense

who weren't superstars last year,

replayed a decent amount and who were now stepping up.

And I think that defense is still be pretty good,

but it's primarily a function of just how bad the ACC is right now.

But I think Miami from me comfortably is the one

that would take out of these three teams.

You can actually make the case that Miami schedule

is easier than Notre Dame's.

I don't know, maybe it's not.

It's in the same realm.

It is the same realm because like, yeah,

BYU is probably, so they play each other.

And then like, what's the toughest other game

for either Notre Dame or Miami?

It's probably BYU for Notre Dame, Ari.

Like I don't think there's a Miami equivalent on that.

Clemson, October 3rd, what you know, right?

But you can make the case that the road game

to Provo would be harder at the point.

We don't know what Clemson is going to be just yet,

but Clemson's kind of at the break here.

So that said, Miami does make a habit of losing

to some pretty boneheaded scratchers every year.

So, you know, you don't know who it's going to be,

but it's kind of the same discussion

as the Marcus Freeman thing of like, will he get bitten again?

Like will Miami get bitten?

And by who, you know, you're not supposed to see those coming?

I'm actually going to take Indiana here

because I, as much as Indiana does have, as you said, Bill,

they're under the season after they play Ohio State

is at Michigan, Minnesota, off week, USC at Washington.

Like those are three or four games are tough down the stretch.

But I just kind of don't think they're going to lose

except maybe do a high state.

Like I just think 11 and one is really on the table here.

And for Miami to go on the road to Notre Dame

and then like, who might lose a screwy game?

I mean, I don't, Kurt Signetti kind of hasn't lost a screwy game yet.

Like I, and like last year, I mean, I was one of the people.

I liked Illinois last year.

I thought that was going to be the one Illinois, Indiana.

This is going to be a prove it game.

And then Indiana wins by 50.

And so when you think about Kurt Signetti against USC

or Washington or Michigan in situations like that,

like I think Indiana might win by 50 again.

So I think like Indiana is here.

And I think Indiana Ohio State is going to be a banger.

And certainly, I, you know, I think that's a toss up game

as we think about it now.

But I just am not comfortable sort of anticipating

that Indiana is going to lose to anybody else.

So then I'll take 11 and one Indiana at a, at worst,

as the team that I think is more comfortably over that 10 and a half.

So we have one vote for Miami.

One vote for Indiana.

Ari, what's your vote?

I'm probably going to go with Miami too.

Not to be boring, but that was the one that jumped out to me

and Landis covered it.

So, you know, I have a bad habit in my life of repeating what other people say.

And I'm going to try to be better about it.

Yeah, I just think that, you know, Miami spent a lot of money

and infrastructure.

They're lines.

The thing that, you know, we have to respect about Miami

is that they've done such a good job of doing the blend,

which is recruiting really high level players at a high school.

A lot of which came from a lot of whom came from the trenches.

And then they've done a really good job of, you know,

supplementing their roster with high talented players.

And their quarterback, I think, is much better this year.

So, you know, when you look at their schedule,

you know, Notre Dame is going to take catch-flack all year

for having an easy run of it.

And I don't think that Miami has been criticized enough.

And a lot of that's obviously out of their control being in a conference.

But outside of Notre Dame, I'm not looking at their schedule thinking

like they're going to lose that.

So, Miami seems like to say, like Indiana to me,

like, and I don't know this.

Like, I have to research.

But like, if you're losing your best players,

like, why is Indiana viewed that way?

I actually would probably be on the reverse of it.

Like, nine and three would be a pretty good follow-up year

to a team that came out of nowhere,

won a national championship and lost all their best players.

I know Josh Hoover is going to be good, but like,

it's a toss-up with Ohio State talent for talent,

pound for pound player for player right now.

No, Ohio State is more talented.

But Ohio State was more talented last year too.

I would say across the board.

Yeah.

They brought in some targeted, you know,

they brought in some targeted transfer guys

to fill some spots.

I don't know that I don't think they'll be as good,

but I just think, excuse me, it's a wizard.

So, Matt, are you and Miami also?

Who else are you picking here?

This will be great content, right?

Miami's actually the one I trust the least out of all three of these.

Not to say they can't win the national title,

but I mean, they still have a one ACC title,

because they get bored, you know?

Like, they get up for big games and it's like,

hey, you still got to play a little bit home.

You still got to do this.

Still got to do that.

I think Notre Dame's going to beat them.

I think those are two talented teams.

I think you'll probably be a night game.

They'll probably be called.

They'll be in South Bend and Notre Dame's got

a massive chip on their shoulder

when they're going up against Miami.

So, I think that's a loss.

And then you basically got to trust Mario Crisball

in this roster to not screw up the rest of the way.

And again, I feel more comfortable putting my money on Miami

to win it all next year than I do for them to go over 10 and a half.

Because I just, we've seen it, right?

Like Syracuse two years ago.

Like, the fact that this roster has not won an ACC title.

And by the way, the coach they fired,

Mani Diaz at Duke has, is crazy to me.

And I know there are a million different, like,

external factors that add up for that equation.

But, but Mario Crisball has done what he came back to Miami to do,

which is, you know, bring the U back and make him an actual power.

They are that.

It's still crazy that they have not won an ACC title

in that league, given how that went.

They've never been built for like a year under him.

They've only been like high level for two years.

Like, Cam Ward year and last year.

But like, they haven't won an ACC championship

in the last two years is crazy.

But they were like a bad program for like,

their entire existence in the ACC.

So like, let's say bad.

I mean, they were the second best program in the ACC

behind Clemson, Winswise when Mani Diaz was there.

And I'm not, I know the talent was nowhere near what it is now.

But, but I think that we should be viewing Miami

as like a forward thing, not a backward thing.

Like, I think that like they are the right kind of place

that they haven't been.

I would also say though, in this era of college football,

it's Doug alluded earlier, like, you know,

if you can get in at 10 and 2 with a close loss at Notre Dame,

like, I think it's really hard to keep a roster,

85 plus guys locked in for a champion,

the length of a championship run,

which will be, you pass to the Mario crystal ball,

coaching blunderers thing.

Like, are you past that?

Or do you still think that he's a liability as a head coach?

I was never like all in in that group

because I feel like that's just like a popular thing

to do on social media.

And the guy is very good at what he does.

But I do think he over undervalued special teams

in a cost of national championship last year.

But it's interesting, Ari.

So, Ari, you want to think of like Miami forward thinking,

but do you think of Indiana's forward thinking?

I do, but Indiana's, uh, oh, for sure.

I think that, I think Kurt's igniting,

is it crazy to say that he's the best coach in college football?

No, no, no, I think it's crazy to say anything other than that.

Okay.

I mean, his hit rate was a,

he's been pretty much a hundred percent on trainers.

You also have to eventually, it won't be a hundred,

which is one of the things that I'm going to do.

You also have to eventually, it won't be a hundred,

which is why I don't know if I want to go 11 and one.

Indiana, my answer is question by the way is Oregon.

I haven't gotten to it yet.

There's only one plus money, only one that's plus money

at the over, plus 116.

And I think they lose at Ohio State.

And I think they win all their other games.

That's kind of been the M.O.

under day and landing the last years at least

when the game you're supposed to win.

Who's the ones you're not maybe even win one

that you're not supposed to like a Ohio State in the regular season.

But the only team that's beating him

last two years are the teams of one, the national title.

And I know it's not the easiest schedule in the world,

but we pulled up here just to be sure.

I mean, they're not going to lose at Oklahoma State.

I don't think they lose at USC and if they do,

we're going to have a completely different discussion

about the big 10 race if USC wins that game.

At Illinois will be tricky.

They get Michigan at home and they get Washington at home.

Like I think that's 11 and one season.

I want to revisit what you asked me though, Doug.

My Indiana thing isn't because I don't think Indiana is going to be good

for the foreseeable future.

My Indiana thing is like their schedule is much harder than Miami's.

Being an overwhelming or one of the four teams that is an

overwhelming favorite to win the national championship

is a different discussion than like is my,

like I think that they're very similar in that.

But the circumstances around Indiana make it harder to get to 11 wins

than I would say for Miami.

USC is the pivot point of this big 10 season

because they play everybody.

And if they're good, they play Oregon,

they play Washington, they play Penn State,

they play Ohio State, they play Indiana.

And if they're good and they win a couple of those games

because like those are all teams we think can make the play.

Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State with an easy schedule,

right, that that might be Penn State's toughest game is USC.

If USC starts beating people, Matt, to your point,

like if Oregon goes to USC early in the season and USC wins,

like I think all bets are off in the big 10 race.

And we don't know how those dominoes are going to fall now.

And it's like a Jenga tower built on Lincoln Riley.

Yeah. And like I think that

the US team is like kind of like last like Texas A&M was this last year.

Texas A&M mucked it up for a lot of teams last year on the way.

They mucked it up for Notre Dame.

And then a lot of teams that were like on the verge of either hiring or firing coaches.

I mean, Auburn, Florida, Arkansas, LSU, Mizzou,

like all those wins, like kind of like changed program trajectories.

But I think that USC is a more prime example of like how it impacts the actual

given race in a given year.

But like Texas A&M was a hurricane of chaos last year.

If you like go back and look at their schedule, I mean,

the USC parts interesting because like Lincoln Riley and probably the

Whiteout three time zones away.

Just like forget who's coaching or playing for Penn State.

Do you trust him?

And he's also got to go back to Rutgers.

And I don't say that like they're going to lose the Rutgers.

But like you look at Lincoln Riley when he's got to go two plus time zones.

It's not good at all.

And part of the reason is that they haven't.

That's independent of like the real tough teams they got to play next year, right?

So I just think there's so many moving parts with USC that it's just very like.

If only and this is a big F because I thought Illinois thoroughly I'll play them for 60

minutes. But they win that Illinois game last year.

And they go 10 and 2 with road losses in Notre Dame and Oregon.

They're in the playoffs and we're looking at this program completely differently.

And yet they didn't do that against Illinois.

And they almost lost at home against Iowa.

And they still showed like the win at Nebraska was like this milestone win for them

because it was their first what big 10 road win other than UCLA or something like that.

I mean, I still got to see it from USC.

I know the recruiting has been on a tear.

I know they should be better than they are.

In fact, they were better last year than I thought they would be.

But I still got to see it for these guys.

So if they get so I don't think anyone thinks USC is going to go to Indiana and win,

they get Oregon and Ohio State at their place.

If they win one of those two games, if they beat

Oregon and Ohio State like it shifts, it shifts.

Like that's that's an extra Ohio State loss that maybe you didn't see coming that

change is the trajectory of Oregon season.

As you said, Matt, if that happens early, so USC is super interesting here.

All right, we're going to this we're going to open it up a little bit.

Everything's out there.

What's your favorite over on any win total that's out there?

What's your favorite under?

We'll start with the over.

And I just wouldn't like to invite land as you know where I'm going here.

And I just Matt probably no Matt knows too from the playoff show.

I just would invite everybody to join on the Kentucky Wildcats bandwagon for

and a half for Will Stein and Kenny Minchi.

Now, as I look at it, I think Kentucky plays like 17 preseason ranked teams.

Their schedule is ridiculous, but I am in on this and I am way over on the

four and a half.

I think they're going to beat some of these media ochre

SEC teams that that aren't ready for them.

I think that could be like Texas A&M.

I think it could be South Carolina.

I think it could be Vanderbilt.

I think it could be Tennessee.

I think it could be Florida.

I think it could be Missouri.

But Matt, I need your Kenny Minchi.

The Notre Dame transfer you knew him well.

Is it crazy for me to be this in on Kentucky over four and a half?

Because I'm based and get on Will Stein and Kenny Minchi.

No, it's not crazy.

I need to look at their schedule here to see just how not crazy it might be.

It's crazy.

It's crazy.

Right.

All right.

Do you know that Doug put Kentucky in this playoff?

I didn't say playoff.

I said win five games.

No, I just don't know.

The thing that is really funny to me is that we recorded Andy and R.E.

this morning and obviously we did win totals because they got released

and guess where we started if you had to guess.

The SEC because Andy's in a hole.

We two Alabama.

Doug, I wonder if your under favorite under is good.

The All Day Monday and Monday and a half.

But we had this discussion today and it's funny enough.

This is like the upside of the century that like Doug and Andy agree.

Like Andy thinks that four and a half is a greedously low for them.

Now we played a game this morning and we went down the list of the teams are playing.

I don't have it in front of me right now.

I can pull it up.

How many games does Kentucky play against programs that should

be further along than they are?

Now they have two like easy non-conference wins.

So you're already halfway there basically before they even get to the SEC schedule.

But they would have to they would have to win two games against teams that would be devastated

to lose to them for them to hit to hit their they're over.

They get Vandy and Florida at home.

That could be four right there.

Alabama could be super I mean I think we you know

once we stop looking at them is Alabama.

We just look at I mean what are they on returning production?

It's it's not good.

For built on only here like.

But the playoffs.

We need to unpack that a little bit more.

So temper 12.

I mean there is no doubt about it.

Some temper 12 Alabama at Kentucky.

I am nine years in returning production.

Ninetyth and returning production from a team that should not have even been

in the playoffs last year.

Just get on board.

No, listen, Alabama's eight and a half win total is interesting because like I can't

I'm sure I was in middle school the last time.

Alabama's win total wasn't at least nine and a half.

So like I like don't think that Alabama's some sort of world beater.

But we're just talking about programs and where they should be next year.

And even if Alabama has a bad year and there are seven or eight win team.

That's still conceivably you know further along than Kentucky should be.

But Kentucky did invest a lot in their roster.

They did get a quarterback who you know maybe very good and underrated.

And I have a lot of really great things to say about Will Stein and he seems to get it.

And like I could imagine like one of these one of these SEC coaches that were hired like

John Summerall or or you know Will Stein or somebody is going to be a star in the sport at some

point and I and I wonder if like Will Stein is the guy.

But like four and a half seems very low and I could see them being a five or six win team.

The playoffs things a little bit much for me Doug.

Sorry about that.

But I but I like your pick and Andy agrees with you too.

All right. Tell Andy.

Tell Andy what's up brother.

I will.

I will.

I'll show what you're alive today.

So you'll see it.

All right. What's your favorite over?

So I'm going to stay in the SEC and I think this might actually crash and burn pretty badly.

But like in the moment I am very amused by South Carolina being the like good enough

themselves.

I couldn't.

Well, though South Carolina being like the dark horse program a year ago at this time to make the

playoff and then returning all of the pieces that cause people to think that way while also

adding one of the best offensive linemen in the portal and then then being at six and a half.

Now I'm not on the South Carolina to the playoff train.

But if you do believe that Lenora sellers is a good player, which I do.

If you think Nick Harbor could be in lockdown field, if you think they've got one of the

best edge wrestlers in the country and then jacquery is peak, it's healthy enough to play.

Like if they fix their offensive line, they should be able to win seven games.

Like I don't think seven and five is out of the question for South Carolina, especially now with

one of their games being against Clemson Clemson not being very good.

So I really like that.

And I think that I'm always kind of like a buck the trend person.

Like last year when South Carolina was getting all the love.

I was like, all right guys, let's relax here.

They're not going, you know, 10 and two or 11 and one.

And it went terribly.

But now I think that because it went terribly a year ago,

that we have over corrected the other way.

And like it could very much be a seven and five or eight and 14 next year.

But those I mean, they're great.

But in that conference where I think that we do overvalue some of the road games.

Like sometimes you're like, oh, South Carolina has to go to A&M.

How could they conceivably win that?

It's like pretty easily if you actually pay attention to the way that things go in the conference.

So, you know, it is a, you kind of have to like put your neck out there

and maybe live through some uncomfortability during that journey.

But if the end result of their season is seven and five, like you're a winner.

And I think that they have, if you did like a list of teams with the most physical

freaks on them, like South Carolina would be in the top 10 percent title of that.

So like I think that six and a half is like a game too low.

SEC just has to prepare for the car crash that is coming.

11 of the 16 teams in the SEC have win totals between six and a half and eight and a half.

And they're just going to be banging heads and they aren't going to know what hit them with

this nine game conference schedule. So good. Matt, what's your team?

Two that I have my eye on in the big 10.

Ryan Walters, current job in his former job, Purdue and Washington.

Produce at three and a half washings at seven and a half washing.

It's minus one 44 juice on the over.

I look at Washington's schedule, which I mean, they might beat this before November.

November gets juicy. They've got Penn State, Michigan State, Indiana and Oregon.

But before then, I mean, they got a realistic chance of running the table until then.

Especially with the Monwellians back a quarterback. I think they are top 20 on Bill Connelly's

production, returning production value. I think Judd Fish is one of the more underrated coaches

of the country. I have a hard time seeing this team not winning nine or 10 games, let alone eight.

That's why I like washing and then produce three and a half. I just think very old him's too good

of a coach to back-to-back stinkers. I think Purdue was one of the unluckiest teams in the country

last year. I mean, if you watch that Rutgers game, it's just like a comedy of errors that happens

all at the worst possible time that that results in this team losing the game. I think the guy knows

what he's doing. Another team that I think is top 40 in terms of returning production. They bring

back Ryan Brown, a quarterback. Schedules not terrible. Obviously, playing NERDA even in the

non-conference is not going to help their cause. But outside of that, I mean, yeah, you go to

Indiana at the end, but this will be decided before then. I mean, you get Wisconsin at home,

Maryland at home, Minnesota at home, Wake Forest, Indiana, State at home. You go to Illinois.

I have a hard time seeing this team not go in at least four, if not significantly better,

if things go their way. So those are the two I like for over. Both big test goals.

Found the boiler makers. Landis, what's your team? I also have two. If it's okay to give them

I have two teams in the big 12. I have two big 12 teams. BYU, eight and a half. BYU is

one 21 regular season games the last two years. And like they play Notre Dame, I think they'll

probably lose that game. They don't play Texas Tech. And I think they can beat everybody else

in the big 12. And you give him me two more losses to play with there in addition to the Notre Dame

loss that I think will happen. So I like that quite a bit with what BYU returns. BYU was also

top 20 returning production this year. I'm a little worried about losing Jay Hill as defensive

coordinator, but the bulk of their returning production is on defense. So hopefully that will

like mitigate that a little bit. And then one other one I was looking at in the in the big 12

and actually that the value is not really that good. But who's the best quarterback in the big 12

this year? And why is it Drew Mesta maker? And I just I think Oklahoma State has not won a big 12

game in the last two years. So I numbers five and a half. I just think there's a lot of upward

mobility in that conference. If you look at like how Utah and Houston kind of flipped it from 2024

to 2025, I think Oklahoma State with an influx of dudes from North Texas, including Mesta maker,

including Caleb Hawkins, can probably find themselves to a bowl game against that schedule that

aside from playing they play Oregon in the non-conference, which are not going to win. But then they play

they don't play Utah. They don't play BYU. They don't play like TCU and Baylor like the other teams

in the top five of the of the conference title odds that they don't they don't play. So aside from

like Texas Tech and Houston, they just play a lot of the other teams sort of like in the middle to

the bottom of the league. So I think they could find themselves in bowl game territory next year.

So I don't mind the five and a half there. On fact, how many games has BYU won outright as

underdog last two years? No idea. Seven. They've always slept on. Always. Okay. That's a good number.

Oh, I like that one. All right. We're going to flip it. We'll end with this. Arey back to you.

Your favorite under of everything that's out there on the board. I think I'm going to be a

hater on this one. But like we know Landis is a Ohio state, right? Like yours.

I'm going to take Texas Tech here. Yeah. Yeah. Are you there too, Matt? Like 11 and a half in the

big 12 seems like pretty risky business. Like we we we joke on our show all the time. Like

every single spread in the big 12 should just be three and a half because like in it and they

typically are even dating back to like when Texas and Oklahoma were in it. Like they would be

you know national championship contenders in September who were three and a half point

favors on the road at Kansas State. I understand that Texas Tech got a pretty favorable draw.

They don't have to play BYU. You know, and they they don't really have a very easy schedule.

But then I look at like the last three games of the year at Oklahoma State at Baylor and TCU like

you know teams that are usually pretty competent at the the last two in the Oklahoma state who's

rising the way the bill just said it was a good segue. Like Houston I think is going to be much

better than people think Arizona State beat them last year. They're on the road in Cincinnati.

Like they're not going to slip one time. They're like I think demanding perfection in college

football is a really hard thing to do even though I have a ton of respect for Joey McGuire.

The money that they're spending to accumulate their talent and the fact that they have a higher

talent level than everybody. But I just think that like demanding perfection in college football

is insane and doing it in the big 12 is particularly insane. So I'm going to take the under of

Texas Tech and I think that they'll be likely 11 and one heading into the postseason.

Yep. Texas Tech and Notre Dame to do 11 and a half. Yep.

Yeah. Yeah. Take what Ari said up ahead of mine. I Texas Tech under 11 and a half as well. It is

minus 192 on the juice for the under. But like this I get it. Their schedule is a joke relative

to what you could have gotten in the big 12. Their defense will be great again. I do think

we're all just a little guilty of pulling the trigger quickly and saying well all they're

missing was a quarterback and they got that. So now instead of going 11 and one like they did last

year, they'll go 12 and 0. Like no it's the big 12 like crazy stuff happens. You can lose a game

and there are a lot of other variables in the college football season that to just trust this

team to automatically go and defeat it. I'm just not there yet. So I will take the under with

the red raiders as well. But I do think they win the league and make the playoff.

And they're losing David Bailey. They're losing Jacob Rodriguez right?

Like they're losing. And a lot of time turned over too on the defense side of the moment.

Yeah. All right. Landis, what's your under?

Are we sure that Vanderbilt can win seven games with a nine game SEC schedule while playing

a freshman quarterback? It just seems like maybe a big guy. I like Clark Lee. I think Clark

Lee's a really good coach. And I know that they were a fun team last year and had a nice season. But

they're losing some guys. Their schedule is decently tough. Even they have two non-conference games

are definitely going to win. But their third is like NC State, which is I don't know like a toss up

maybe given what kind of our both teams are. I guess you like Vanderbilt their home in that game.

But I just think freshman quarterback in the SEC is enough for me to think that Vanderbilt's

probably not going to win seven games this year. Yeah. You you land us in dog like they mean

my meld. He was totally on the under the Vandy on the show too. So okay. But that's funny.

It's like I feel like I'm doing the same show again. It's amazing. How much you guys agree?

The only thing I don't like about that pick, which was also my pick, is that that leads to a

season long discussion about how much Vandy misses Diego Pavia. This is going to make me puke in my

mouth. So I'm probably like rooting for Jared Curtis, like good luck young man. And there were

a lot of true freshman quarterbacks. Like that's a thing that right guys play now. And guys played

last year. But like and played pretty well. Bearbuck Meyer played pretty well at you while you,

but you also saw like Bryce Underwood's very talented. There's some bumps in there, right? So

like I don't think you can assume that Jared Curtis isn't going to have some bumps. I mean,

this is just like the roulette wheel spin of like name that SEC under. I was just like I could

sit in that casino all day. So I can't quite get there on Alabama because the thing that makes

me the happiest about Alabama's number being 8.5 is that Alabama's number is 8.5.

It's not even like there's no money to be made there because everybody agrees. They're

mid. You shout for two years that Bama's mid and finally people listen 8.5. My god,

there was constant. So like it's just that's enough for me. I don't have to bet it to enjoy it.

Right. So, you know, I'm not going to sit here and say that. Well, do you get six and six,

but part or two is if the overhits their fan base can still be bitterly disappointed too. Yeah,

even if it's nine win. Yeah. They're not having a parade for killing to board nine and three.

We hit the over. We're nine. That's so like a nine three Bama nine three Ohio State market

down on the show on March 23rd. Just I mean, for real, if you want to get I can't just tune

into the post game show after Kentucky Beach, Alabama and week two. Like we'll we'll we'll be

enjoying that. Man, that was some good college football content here in late March. We appreciate

you guys so much. Ari, everybody knows you. They love you, but just remind the folks where they

can find you talking and write about college football. Right about college football at on three.com

main page. And we do a daily podcast. Andy Staples and I called Andy and Ari on three that goes

Monday through Friday, every day at 3 p.m. Eastern on the YouTube channel wherever you get your

podcasts. And then during the season, we have a Saturday night reaction show. So thanks for having

us on and on me on. And it's always fun being with you guys. Yeah, we love it, man. And math

for two in a year. The best work in folks find you a talking and writing about college football at

large Notre Dame. The big 10 everybody else. Just like you guys, I'm on sub stack the inside zone

inside zone mf.com will be changing up a little bit. The regionals here for sweet 16 elite eight in

Chicago. So I'll be doing hoops this weekend and drive to Indy for the final four, the men's final

four next weekend. But last spring football practice to be covered as well. And we're doing plenty of

that on our Notre Dame podcast, the independent with Pete Samson and me. Thanks for having me on the show,

guys. Yeah, great stuff. Landis, we are going full, heavy Ohio State football spring practice back

on Tuesday for the buck guys, right? Yeah, excited. We're going to talk with Arthur Smith this week for

the first time. We get Matt Patricia this week, Cortez Hank, then also some new coaches on the

docket for interviews and, you know, Ohio State was off last week, but they're back at it this week

running up to the spring game on April 18th. So come find us Bill and Doug OSU dot sub stack dot com.

Awesome show. Ari, Matt, thanks for the insight, brothers. Thanks to you guys for being here for

now on behalf of Ari, Wasserman, Matt Fortuna and Bill Landis, I'm Doug Laymaris. And that was

around the shoe on the Bill and Doug show.