Ohio State vs Texas Predictions: The Fatal Flaw Nobody Is Talking About

0:00I've never had a week in College Football where I lost so many wagers the same exactly. There's nothing to make me to believe that Michigan is going to threaten, scoring on Oklahoma in this game. I lean Texas in the game because I like Stark in a rematch setting. This is a guy who booked bets for a long long time and he said you can't trust Stark in this role. Remember that podcast bat. I'm your host, Bear Chris Flake, Jeff Schwartz, CBP as always joining me here for a little bit from Greg McAroy at some point during the show as well with his thoughts on College Football this week and a couple of big SEC Big 10 matchups, which is I guess where we should start guys. Maybe we were anxiously awaiting a couple of big non-conference games and we have two from this week. One Ohio State Texas in Austin and the other one in Ann Arbor world. I will be Jeff between Michigan and Oklahoma and anything going on in Ann Arbor this week. Nothing whatsoever just a big

1:03football game off for what happened last week, which is still sort of recovering from. I mean they they changed the rules for how they're going to administer any game situations with the clock after what happened with with Michigan and Sammy Jeff Saggren included in his standings the Weston mission won this game 12 to 7, which is hilarious because officially obviously they did not win this game here. Oklahoma fair by five and a half now the total 43 and a half. So with you, Sammy, any thoughts on this? I really was looking to bet Michigan in this spot. Problem is I waited and missed the six and a half and a lot of the sixes are now gone. It's a very similar situation to the Florida State SMU game and got a lot of guys in Vegas will tell you there's only one side to bet. You never want to be on the wrong end of the overreaction. Those guys were saying you could never lay SMU minus three and a half and if you did you obviously lost that game and probably should have lost the game outright SMU wins by three. The same guys this week are singing the same tune only it's on Oklahoma. They're saying you cannot lay the number here. The overreaction this game was

2:06basically a pick them in the summer and now off of one poor game Kyle Wittingham's first game mind you with a lot of pressure and a lot of new parts and a lot of moving pieces. How do you lay five and a half here with a road favorite bearer wouldn't be me. I have a hard time Sammy either laying it or take I'm just going to sit and watch. I think under probably is the right play of Michigan team total under because what is there to believe guys from last year that the Michigan team is going to be any better offensively than what they were last year in Oklahoma when they lost was a 27 13 24 that was it wasn't it was not competitive. Yes. And I think under underwood was like a little bit of 24 in the game for like 90 yards. Like there's nothing to make me to believe that Michigan is going to threaten scoring on Oklahoma in this game in my concern not not only under what we're talking underwood which is fair and legitimate. He couldn't run the ball. Yeah. It couldn't get Western Michigan had the ball for 40 minutes. Utah had what a couple of first round offensive tackles last year. I think that Utah

3:08offensive line was clearly much better. Yeah. What the Michigan offensive and it like yeah underwood in the back deserve their fair share but with that offensive line Jeff. Yeah. I would be very very concerned. Yeah. It was a great performance from that offensive line. What I find most of you we're going to talk to Greg McAroy about this as well and I asked him the same question is we just saw a very different looking offense than we saw at Utah. Utah's offense did a lot pre snap the lot post snap with just moving guys around Michigan's offense was a lot more static is that because they don't trust the offense to run what they want to run is that more of a week one situation where we just thought we could get away with doing a little bit less and then we come back to more of what our offense has been at Utah. Now obviously last year they had a situation where they they knew the quarterback in this in this situation they don't but very clearly they don't trust price underwood right and I think for this game underwoods over 10 and a half Russia temps bears maybe the way I'm going to play this one because a I think he's got to run the ball b they're going to scheme up some more runs for him and see obviously a sack right is a

4:12is a rush attempt to call triple which I don't understand how that works but you know they're going to find ways I think to get him on the move here so it's up on all on some pms right now Sammy underwood over 10 half rushms that's how I'm going to play the game I'm a sit away from the total because just I think it's too easy to take the under in the spot maybe I look stupid in the end when the under hits very easily but some of the worst people I know already on the under anyways so I'm going to stay away from that's a problem I guess Sammy the other game that we have in Austin Ohio State Texas so much talk about this game for open or last year arch we decided archbanding can't play after one game in Columbus against one of the best defense is the college football last year now we get totally kidding but Ohio State want to have point underdog slight underdog a little bit of revenge here for for Texas I think this Texas team is better than the one that went to Columbus last year I'm not sure this Ohio State team is as good as the one that we saw last year I like Texas here it feels like Ohio State is probably a bit of a popular side here but I think that

5:16Texas defensive line though those with Simmons and Biles and some of the other defenders that they have I think I think they're going to get after saying which is kind of the last image I have from last year with Indiana and Miami just completely dominating that Ohio State offensive line but I'll be I'm going to be I Texas here Sam I was talking with Ed Sammins who made numbers at the West Gate in Vegas for a long time and he basically brought up this notion that he wants no business laying Sark as a small favorite and I don't I don't know that he's entirely off there because there have been several games in the SEC namely Georgia a couple times where Texas was a small favorite and didn't take care of business maybe that's not fair with this year's team and if Archbanging plays a minus a football they're going to win this game but Ed said he makes this game a pick them and he's happy to take any plus price on the money line with Ohio State Ed's words not mine but Jeff this is a guy who book bets for a long long time and he said you can't trust Sark in this role well I go that to echo

6:20what I'd say and if you look at Sark at Texas as a rank in top 10 matchups two and six so there's a little bit of proof yeah I wish I had like a great concrete wager to making this game I sort of don't at the moment I mean maybe a first half under as both teams sort of figure out playing better competition right but they do return their quarterbacks they return their their office I know that it's Ryan Day is has new coordinator I get it but a lot of what they do has sort of been the same over the years and with with both with the office weapons they have maybe they sort of worked their way into finding where those guys need to find in zones and who's playing man coverage and who's not and where to take shots so maybe a first half under but I think it's just two really evenly matched teams and they both have strength we didn't we don't know what those are going to be really till they play better competition right both roster is filled out the same go and question about Ohio State is that they're replacing three guys on defense that won the top 11 and bear mentioning off at the tackles right and is Julian St. Can he scale his game up to beat a team like

7:24Texas when there was right last season Indiana did not scale up right as much or not scale up as much as Miami so if the long way to say I think Texas is the side I would take here I've not made a wager on this game I probably will stay away from wager on this game but I think that's a side I would look at in this one bear yeah and there there's certainly a bunch of other big games on the slate this week so those are the those are the big ones look I love these games I think we should keep them every year I hope that any sort of expanded playoff whatever leads and keep some of these games going here all right we're gonna get to dogs in favorites guys okay which dog do we want to cover this week there's a lot of them on the board last year I went way too many favorites for me last week bear so we'll start here with terrible last bad we said we hated land big numbers that they are all worrying all gonna cover and no how many losses now for work in two or three this what we how many games we lose in this week for the ducks two or three this year two or three losses on the season after last

8:25week oh I think four losses four four yeah four loss so they're gonna lose to Washington thank you Washington Ohio State USC Michigan we're losing okay all those yeah yeah I'm gonna put down on the hot seat sure sure it will all right dog to cover this week's am I know the you're gonna have Oklahoma State who did you land to this team just played Florida and got cracked if you look at the box score there were some things though that you could like from Florida Atlantic I mean they did move the ball granted it was against a lot of the guys in the second half but Florida's supposed to crack Florida Atlantic now you take on a Navy team that just had 900 million yards it gets Bryant and now everybody's saying oh Navy's great and I'm just I'm not sure that that's the case here we have seen a little bit of buy on the y'all's at plus five though I think it's a decent bet and I might even do a little salt bay on the money line here Jeff oh little salt bay my my dog this week is is Purdue getting three points hosting way for the reason I like this bet for

9:28many reasons was I I get a worse number today that would have gone early on the week which is fantastic I'm all in Sammy and and getting the worst number of the week plus three here for Purdue I just think Purdue is better this season year two under this coaching staff we saw some improvement in their game last week as well we got kind of going in the second half there wake played well in week one but a lot of their passing was explosive plays they had two plays over 70 yards if you take that away it's basically half the production for the passing attack wake forest on the road now in this game there's I got a three there's three and a half potentially as well here bear so I got Purdue here plus three who's your your your favorite dog of the week not a lot of great options this week I know we're just talking about how we want to take more dogs but yeah not a ton that I see which at least at this point in time again there will be some people that that chime in at some point over the next 24 to 48 hours but influence some wages but I'm gonna take Cal plus the points it's a reclusive terms of a dog that I a dog that I like

10:28here JKS couple of turnovers last week they gain that was a little bit of a misleading final 21 points in the fourth quarter by UCLA a little some rumblings out there that JKS ankle might not be 100 percent I would expect him to play it I it's a point here Sammy where you're laying points with Syracuse I'm not sure Fran Brown has a great team out there as well certainly can't be as bad as they were last year when they suffered an injury a quarter back and went completely downhill but not not sure Syracuse should be laying north of I think the number is sort of baked in the not injury but the ankle situation with JKS now it sounds like he's gonna play Jeff I don't know if you did your diligence and hit the bad phone but the move mostly came because JKS did roll an ankle sounds like he's gonna play these kids get shot up all the time he's gonna be fine but also it's a cross-country game you go all the way from Cal all the way to New York it's not the easiest schedule spot a lot of travel

11:29and of course the ankle is something that we will certainly be monitoring and maybe have a second half wager if the ankle is worse than people think let's get to our favorite to fade this week Sammy who's your favorite you're thinking backing off of what we talked about with Texas and I didn't even have the stat bear gave us Sark 2 and 6 last day games top 10 thank you bear for the cherry on top of the Sunday you're welcome when a guy who's been booking bets for three decades says you can't bet Texas in this spot I just I just played the violin and move on with my life so I am not going to be taking Texas bear I know you're on the horns I am I am not going to be a part of the party well it's like it's the classic when we're we're just three touts here we're just going to give that opposite sides in every game and someone's going to win someone's going to lose and we'll we'll take whatever the 100 bear I know is that no matter no wonder what happens here people will yell at Sammy in the internet for when he's wrong that that feels very that that that that we know Sammy that when you're wrong especially with Houston last week that that was a rough one how ridiculous it was so I never had a week in college football where I lost so

12:35many wagers the same exact way like Oregon was bad terrible handicap never the right never had a chance but Houston's up 19 at home with Oregon State and just fades the West Virginia game for Trosius like every game that's some you game like we had that on the side we talked about on Monday's show for turnovers two in the red zone 600 yards and don't get over 27 and a half so I'm hoping that that changes week and hopefully starts with with my favorite to fade here I'm fading Texas tech on the road at Oregon State they looked okay it gets abling Christian last week not what we saw last season which is expected right they do lose they did lose a lot on defense here but this is more of a situational fade right because next week they play Houston and maybe their biggest conference game of the entire season is next week after going to Corvallis you've been to Corvallis it's it's an interesting trip it is it's it's actually it's closer than than Eugene though if you fly to Portland sure but you can just most of the other thing fly to Eugene and travel to Corvallis I think they used to not be a hotels in Corvallis you have to stay you keep staying Eugene and then bust Corvallis to play or they're hotels I think

13:38yeah there are yes but I was there for the for the the fog game one of Thursday night the USC game yeah yeah big with O7 7 I think that was yeah O7 I think it's a tough spot for Texas Tech here look ahead spot the beavers probably feel good about the way they finished like him gets used to Corvallis will be rocker for this one so that's my favorite to favor you have a favorite to fade I do but before I get to my favorite to fade I want to ask going back to what Sammy was saying about Texas was his favorite to face looking ahead is we know how we love to overreact the things in this sport it's gonna be a reaction to whomever loses this game Ohio State or Texas is this an opportunity right now to bet on both of these teams to miss the playoff knowing that someone's gonna pick up a loss and you look at the remaining schedules and they're both difficult we don't know how the committee is gonna handle a nine and three team which potentially could be on the table for one of these teams is an opportunity just to kind of bet no with a nice plus

14:39price on one of the on both of these teams right now and know that moving forward with the winner with the with the loser as well you maybe could get a chance to buy back a plus running on the S my concern I think is is I just like who are the other playoff teams that are not in for Ohio State or Texas right so like if a house it's not in only two big ten teams going in no so there's gonna be a third click so the third is what Penn State USC Washington and Washington offense did not look terribly good if Texas is not in is Georgia and it's LSU Ole Miss Lama Emma I'm so punchy that's my concern Sammy would take away is like who are the other teams that are going to be in the playoff if not for how I think it's an interesting idea though certainly from a price standpoint my concern bears that you get Polish middle and Ohio State is ten and two the lost to Texas and Texas is nine and three with a lost well they both couldn't lose I guess I just pull this middle myself my bad I don't know paralysis through now I would rather what I would rather do is bet whoever loses to make

15:41the playoff at a cheaper price okay kind of getting to the same bottom I like the same there all right now I'm gonna give you my okay okay if you just listen who you got Alabama I think this could be a close game I know it was just young downstate that could tuck you played but Mingshi can play their backs are good will Stein you know from his days in Oregon good coordinator he's kind of reinstilled some energy and vigor in that fanbase I think it's gonna be a pretty rowdy atmosphere look I know about Bama look great offensively in the open with with Kaelin Russell running around and making plays see what happens going on the road you remember last year Alabama had four conference road games this year they lost well they won they won them I should say one by seven three seven and seven I think it was right right yeah you had the you had a yeah seven three seven seven three and three it was a Missouri Auburn

16:46South Carolina and then with another there was in the Georgia game which they actually did win but now you got a young quarterback going on the road but you this could be a could be a tricky spot it could be a tricky spot and that's what we're gonna start our betting rotation here is talking about this game between Alabama Kentucky here Alabama's fair by 10 and a half the total 49 and a half I think it feels a little bit low there here's my thing about the lot of these games this is not really great way to preview I think some of the games as we're talking gambling the lines right not really the talent but like where is Kentucky better than Bama to where they keep this game close is it is atmosphere that they're having to go play on the road running this is Will Stein I just need Bama such a more talented team that doesn't mean they're gonna cover the game bear right but they're just bet they have a coach who's been head coached now for many many years of Stein's first big game at home I think we saw last week where sort of like Toshle Poit where like first big game at home against a seasoned coach I know Chesney is was new you see

17:49but it guys coached a lot of football as that coach and we saw kind of Cal Melter was turnovers there of course so it's a long way to say Sammy like I just I'm hesitant to bet on Kentucky in this game curious your thoughts what's a big step up in competition obviously for Kentucky to go from Youngstown state to Alabama but there are a lot of things I think working guns Bama from a situational spot including their freshman quarterback making his first ever road start and Willie Stein I was Willie Colley signed their Will Stein I'm all over the place guys seem school over the place I'm getting sick from the three lights in my face in the other room that I had to move on Will Stein came on until Kentucky sports radio he goes I don't care what you have to do I don't care if you have to sneak a flask into the building we're gonna make them uncomfortable so he's calling for the campus to get in there early in Pat Crogre field this is going to be the loudest game of Russell's life at Alabama not that he can't overcome that but this is not a cupcake like East Carolina for for Bama as well so both teams having a step up

18:51in competition I think if Kentucky can sustain Russell and keep him in the pocket he got out he ran a ton against East Carolina if they make him a pocket pass or on the road for the first time in his career I think they could hang inside the number any last thoughts bear on the game no I'm not sure Kentucky is good enough to pull the ups a bit of I think getting double digits conference road you know man I know conference road games are hard they're hard I don't disagree on that I mean it's going to it's and I just I'm curious about Kentucky it's one of the things right I think that a lot of these teams are so new sometimes I just tend to stay away from those teams and just sort of bet on what I know and the next game here is Mississippi State on the road against Minnesota here this game has been waffling back and forth but Minnesota right now is getting a point a half as we talk here total 55 and a half I know Sammy and I are big on Minnesota this year I thought they looked like they should last week right they look like a team that returns a lot that has a quarterback and running back that they trust and they have a defense that can get after it and I I Sammy I'm all on a Minnesota this year

19:55I know you are as well I like their side in this game I know Mississippi last week look really good in offense but sort of situation right first road game rockers atmosphere for Minnesota I like the gofers here what's you I'm with Minnesota but I have my preseason blinders on whoever you like if you like the other side take the point in a half if you like our side on Minnesota take the point in a half because you could take plus one in a half with either side if you shop or on to get the right number but Fandall has plus one in a half on the gofers and there I think we're all heads up with you here yeah we you you are and I'm just going to take the best price on Mississippi State whether it's plus one I have somewhere pick them somewhere I think I think the bulldogs are a little bit underrated I don't think this is a like like an eight or a nine win team by any movement but I think they are a bull team I think they'll get to six to six at least in the SEC I think Mara Oteler is a dynamic player and I'm a little worried about Minnesota in a spot like this if you go back like 2018 again people like to kill be sometimes for trends and notes but I'm a researcher at heart I love

20:57little looking for information and situations within certain coaches certain teams certain right types of teams sure go back since 2018 Minnesota has been involved in 10 home games where you had a spread within three points either way and the gofers are two and eight in those times more often than not and again and I like PJ a lot of it basically the way I football terms is like they just are not good enough to win 50-50 games like like the point-foot games lose they're not winning coin flip games very often so this is obviously a coin flip game a coin flip game here and so I like trends too bear when you talk about week one and a quarterback goes over four past them ball gets no pressure and how that matters into week two so trends are very important to you when you're playing like a FCS team or it's really it's really important just be careful with with trends to me look I'm a football guy right bears a research guy and numbers guy Sam is the numbers the way I look at trends is I like to have a little bit of football involved in the trend like that trend makes sense right that trend is like we just we're not good enough

21:59it's a coaching staffers a team to win games that were sort of the talent as even we win games we should we lose games we should and those 50-50 games just we haven't been as good now this year I think Minnesota is a lot better so maybe that won't matter as much all right getting to my ducks here there we go go ducks organ Edochal mistake numbers 22 and a half for organ total 58 and a half looked I liked organ in the week I might still play them the contest but everyone's an organ this week bear so it's not like an official play of mine it won't be a best bet of mine organ average eight yards of play against boys you states they only they allowed less than five yards of play it was a weird game the score was obviously very close Oklahoma state struggled very mighty against tall so their offense line was very very bad so mad I got on for that last week and I and I just organ defense aligned had like 20 pressures against boys you state like this is going to be a tough tough contest for Oklahoma state so I lean organ here other than they bounce back the one thing I will say about this game is at new neister they played two games last year nine o'clock

23:00Pacific at Northwestern we were both there bear and they played Texas second orange bowl both times the offense was really slow to start so just just something to note here any thoughts of organ Oklahoma that's when I was going to ask you about the the body clock the fact that they were involved in a close game last week and they were sluggish last week to start in the first half yeah and finally scoring right before yeah like does that concern you the fact that you would expect maybe to start slow but because they struggled so early on last week yeah would you think okay maybe they'll come out a little bit crisper than you normally would think so Dan Lennon they're going a day earlier which they did not do last year for the Northwestern game so they're going out a day earlier trying to prepare for some of the you know doing this as well also probably heath it's probably a lot hotter and still warrant as a new gene right now it was beautiful it was 70 degrees on Saturday was unbelievable bear um and I look the slow start to me last week was less about really boys he just knew off it's a coordinate I thought they moved too slow early on they tuddled a little bit too much they never really tried to run the football and they said how they made great adjustments they're like you

24:01know what we're faster right then boys you stay slowly slow the ball down the field to our fast wide receiver so I think we're going to be fine in this game uh Sam any thoughts on on organ Oklahoma yeah well Dante more is clearly a dud and you know I you feel like three seventy I think Oklahoma states live on the money line guys honestly we're being completely here's what's going to happen everybody that watched organ last week is gonna fade organ this week and organ will be up twenty eighth to nothing at half you know that's going to happen I would tend to think that's I think like forty nine ten sort of like this like what I have in my head as far as what I think this is going to be and they play a game important important against Friday so like I don't know how much they're really going to keep everyone waiting to play again on Friday um and it's a new off of corn like they have to keep doing stuff on offense they absolutely do so I would not be surprised I just cut to the Schwarzehaus mayor you know what's going to happen organ is going to be up so big in this game and Meredith is going to look at Jeff and go why couldn't they do this when we were there you know okay so

25:03so okay come fix on that so we were I mean I mentioned my we were in the box and you mentioned that and I got to like move around and she was like noticeably like noticing like how much I stressed during the game like where I'm moving around and walking to so that was fun for her to see but Saturday at noon the games at noon my daughter has a softball game at noon as well so I will I'm debating like the iPad in the dugout with the game on so just like turn my head around and look back at the organ game wall I'm coaching the girls is that like coach are you think father and coach you the years right there that's not the both things that like you know that that's doable I thought you doable yeah yeah we're talking ten ten ten you softball ten you softball one and oh the thunder bats I was gonna say you win if you can find the thunder bats and you're great he charlotte for metro area the spring can you spring girl softball buddy we are we are we're we're the spring watch out watch out charlotte hits are back at school right uh my kids have been schooled in August really like middle of August wow yeah they already have like

26:05their first breaking like a couple weeks so I can't have them in there more than a month or a month no can't can't do that um uh let's be on tour our next game here uh Sanio State UCLA uh 12 and a half is a favorite for UCLA the total 55 and a half for this total stadium he's ticked up about three or four points after UCLA put up a bunch of points Saturday night uh I think Sanio State put up in the 50s against Portland State um in a week one any thoughts on this game well memes to be fine you know I send you guys that list of quarterbacks every Monday or Tuesday and eco was on there because he did have an issue in that game but he did come back in obviously and it sounds like he's gonna play the market has no concern this open ten and a half on Sunday afternoon and not where at 12 fandals at 12 and a half so there's a ton of UCLA money already in the kitty probably doesn't stop um going in the Sunday or Saturday rather so the move has already come in there on both the favorite and the over throughout the week yeah I did not get to the the total in time I miss I missed the oh this is bear this is awesome four we get four

27:05points of worst value sign me up um I'm all in the over in this one this will be in my bed this is like this couldn't be better you know like I even I know this is no one wants to hear a bitch fest the entire time no I do now this like people want to hear that like I had Charlotte last week at Lane 15 like close 21 lost out right lost out right over time to sit it all that's fun like but people would tell me that's a good bet you got a great bet you got six points of value yeah great great bet they lost it over time how great was that bet so I'm I'm out the over in this game look I think you see like show last week even though Cal did turn the ball over that with Nico pair with Chesney they're gonna be a very formidable offense this year especially against teams are not as good San Jose has an offensive coach in Sean Lewis they're gonna be good in offense is what they do right defensively there's still question marks there I mean always for a team like San Diego state right should have to pick your poison at that level and they picked their poison offensively so I think there's a lot of yard in this game there's a lot of points in this game it's at the Rose Bowl which I know those use their offense to be fired up to be there with with the coach that they actually like right like a coach that there's the key that they believe in um I just buy do I

28:08buy in a Chesney man you listen they put out of one of those cinematic recaps post game uh they they look like you know the the buying is huge UCLA right now so did he do his deal from ducks versus them uh the organ to be fair is the one who started the cinematic recap so they do not get credit after every one of them did you see Georgia put this behind a paywall did they yeah so Georgia this in a recap behind a paywall which they got murdered for they should it's like 20 bucks for subscription for like some Georgia TV dot com or something um and buy it by the paywall here give your for your fans a little ball I know right it's like it's a it's a it's a high video you should you should do that um all right uh ASU Texas A&M here uh Texas A&M is laying 14 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 here uh any thoughts for this one bear I have no idea what to expect from ASU yeah like I don't even know if Kenny Dillingham knows what to expect from his from from from his team as well but I this could be a lower I mean the total you sit in the scene it's right around there at 50 50 one or so like A&M's offense really struggled last week for definitely the first half and

29:13and even even on after that could be a lot of Marcel Reed running I don't know this feels like an under type type game for me because I just don't know how ASU is going to be a quarterback how a how ASU is going to be a upfront on both sides of the ball either so this could just be kind of A&M kind of leaning on them and just keep it in the mouth of field and winning a uh a lower scoring type game anything Sammy for you in the favorite for me but I'm not gonna like bet a bunch of cash on it and I laid 14 and 14 and a half obviously it's a different conversation but I would still go favorite or pass on this one all right last game here before we get to our Greg McIrre interview and our best best because I just want to I need to say I'm as a pain in this one because I know you're gonna have this one later Sammy are you going for punishment Duke Illinois you're betting this game again after last season you just like you have to get my money back on Duke last year very famously what's our we on last year oh we we were on Duke is a small or a small favorite and I think they turn over I think they turn the ball over four

30:18times inside the red zone or four times inside the 30 yard line so yeah the SMU from the other yeah must have popped on like their own tan or whatever outgain them by like 200 yards but it that but that meant Illinois was a top 10 team because they won that game and then right right the next the next we were so furious about about yeah Illinois is not that good and then I went to Illinois so then I had all the people that went to Illinois telling me that I was a hater and I'm like no I went there I'm a realist this team is not that good and they you know against better competition they fold it as they always do but I was at a wedding for that game last year and every time I looked out at my phone Duke was turning the ball over it was glorious it was it was glorious in the way that you cry after a game all right let's get to our Greg McAurrayan of you and they'll be back with best bets baby that's happy to join by Greg McAurray always call a football on my productions he will be on the call this week in Lexington Alabama versus

31:18Kentucky big brook where we're getting for the tide but it's kind of a big theme this week in college football great couple of big big 10 SEC matchups we've got a couple bunch of great matchups this year could turn to not conference but I certainly think Texas and Ohio state down and Austin is the best I think the question is really how much do you believe in these quarterbacks right Julian St. last year was obviously fantastic how much better is he God I the question I have for you is really about arch because it is it feels as a wide variety of opinions about him some evaluators and NFL guys love him some some don't where do you sit with arch right now during this game I really like him I saw Jeff I know exactly what you're saying because early in the season it was too reactive it was too quick feet were noisy the body was noisy I mean he didn't play with a lot of control didn't play with a lot of poise and then you saw him get hit a couple times and it was almost as if he flipped the switch like all right that's it I don't care anymore like I'm just gonna let it rip and it really started about the fourth quarter of the Mississippi state game and from that point forward he was a totally different player at a really good November carried that into the bowl game and you saw him kind of grow up throughout the course of the season

32:23and if he can just continue to grow in some of those areas I mean he went from being way too overreactive happy feet nervous in the pocket anxious in the pocket she then moving in the pocket to the end of the point where he's actually manipulating defenders from the pocket with his eyes with his arm and things like that that to me is maturation process I think he's got all the god given the ability you can have but at the same time man I think just seeing how he plays and seeing how he's grown is big and the big thing with me with Ohio State like I think their past rush is fine I don't know if it's as good as it was a year ago maybe there's maybe quayrusa gets healthy we'll feel differently about that maybe we see Kenyatta Jackson maybe we see them finish a few more times like they got close a couple times last week against ball state didn't finish so maybe it's in there we just haven't seen it yet but I don't know I think the only way to get to arch is really to push the pocket on the interior and I don't know if that's going to be something that Ohio State can replicate the same way they're able to replicate it last year

33:24I hate to make it too simplistic and be this you know tight knit on it but it just feels like Greg Ohio State wins these type of games under Ryan Day Texas doesn't win these games under shark maybe that's not fair but Texas has not been great in this very small favorite role I don't disagree and I look at the track record the last two years with Ohio State two years ago obviously amazing football team last year an amazing football team Texas had their chances last year they just couldn't quite capitalize I do think arch is personnel round them's a lot better Ryan Wingo is banged up last year now he's at 100% Cam Coleman's been a nice addition and I'm more juice at running back so I do think the personnel around arch is improved and you can't play quarterback by yourself I mean you need your guys around you to beat top shelf last year in this game I was Parker Livingston that was really the go-to guy in the passing game and he is now serving as the number three maybe even the number four option at Oklahoma and he was the number one option against Ohio State for Texas last year so I think that the personnel has greatly improved around him I lean Texas in the game because I

34:28like shark in a rematch setting I just think back a couple years ago when and granted they were an underdog in both these games he gave them all they wanted lost that game in Austin following year ago two Tuscaloosa take care of business I think something similar could happen in this setting as well assuming I think Texas past rushes more consistent than Ohio State's I think that's the group that's got to win against what might be a bit of a leaky offensive line for the buck guys yeah you you hit on something there the Ohio State tackles I think are going to be a major liability that it was the lasting image from last year how both Indiana and Miami in Ohio States last two games of last year just seemed to absolutely get after Julian saying you've got weak tackles there and who knows on the flip side two ghouls we may not be able to play this week for Texas and that could certainly help the other Ohio State past rush as well the other game big 10 SEC the game where I will be at with big new in Oklahoma Michigan what is there if anything to believe that Bryce

35:29Underwood will improve on what he was last year and I think was 11 of 24 last year for like in 100 yards maybe wasn't very good last week if you're Jason Beck Kyle Weddingham what are you telling Bryce Underwood to potentially help him get better from where he was not only last week. Oh pick a stick man like y'all watched it Jeff you watch it bury all you guys watch it like you look at the first drive of last week there's what's so troubling about last week's performance it's like the first try it's like that's it like that's you do that and great I mean yes he dropped a snap and had to make him a racket let's play and it wasn't flawless but it's like quick throws decisive accurate on the body and the number of the receiver that he was intended to throw to and it was quick you know he wasn't trying to do too much I think that's who he's got to be and against Oklahoma who's a super aggressive group like Oklahoma for all the great things they do defensively sometimes they can maybe do a little too much defensively and it leaves you vulnerable to quick

36:31and decisive quarterbacks now Bryce has been anything but that throughout most of his career but if you look at the first drive of last week it's like it's in there if we just call the game to allow him to get the ball out quickly we're good I also think running him moving him to changing the launch point like I didn't think they're oh I looked very good Jeff I mean you tell me if you saw it differently I didn't think he had a ton of protection I think it felt very comfortable for him back there but it I think moving the pocket Mr. Reaction Oklahoma is a little susceptible to quick snaps and hey it looks like we're looking at the sideline we snap the ball we go because they want to call the perfect defense knock you out so I think there's a way around it but unless they run the football it's gonna be tough sledding and they got to stay patient in the run game too and Jeff I don't know about you there's nothing I saw from last week's performance and maybe think oh yeah they're gonna be able to run the ball at will against Oklahoma well what's surprising to me is that you know I watched a lot of Utah last season for the Joe Moore award right they're obviously a very good football team and and what I saw from Michigan was nothing with the offense we saw in

37:32Utah Greg is that alarming to you that you know Utah did a ton of shifts and motions and flies all that stuff and we just didn't see any of that for Michigan it was a very bland offense a week one was that by design or you think that Bryce Underwood just can't really handle all that offense right now you know how many times though last week did we watch teams look like terrible when they tried to shift in motion I mean seriously I mean it was formations to lay a game's Aaron snaps we saw snaps going off jet sweep guys like guys just didn't they didn't no team looked like crazy sharp last week that was trying to do a lot of the most to frankly like one of the only ones that did was Kentucky like watching them and it was like all right that's the way it's supposed to look and there weren't many that looked really good so I think it was one of those like hey first game everyone's got some jitters like let's just let's just go be the better team I think they probably misplaced their hand like all right we're just superior to them from a talent standpoint like let's just line up run it look clean don't beat ourselves and like let's just get out of this

38:34thing and then we'll get ready to roll next week so I anticipate this this whole new offense and remember last year Devon damn Pierre came with coach back and he had run it a lot so this is this is not new for him he was more comfortable in his first game in the Utah uniform then Bryce Underwood was running this offense for the very first time so I do you think there's more layers to but how much are they going to want to unfold because you start beating yourself with pre snap and fractions against Oklahoma and you're behind a stick your dead so I think they're going to have to do some of that they're going to have to and if they don't it'll be tough sledding and if not you got to run the quarterback and he uses athleticism that's the ultimate neutralizer gets you favorable numbers and and if you don't do that I think it's going to be hard for them to manufacture a lot of points you brought up Kentucky you also know a thing or two about Alabama I don't know if you saw what Will Stein told KS sorry said get there early get loud make them uncomfortable and if you got a sneak in a flask do it that's what he said it's a great quote how does Kentucky talent's Bama Greg you know it's an interesting game because I look

39:40at at Kentucky and I think they look great last week I'm great I know it's Youngstown State I get that one of the keys against Youngstown State last year Youngstown State's quarterback was the FCS player of the year last year great runner they held him like 20 yards I think his long carry was seven so that that's big so that was the number one goal is for them to contain the quarterback and they passed that test now they did get gashed a couple times in the passing game but there's one area where I felt like Bama excelled last week it was with quarterback scrambled drill off broken plays I do think there's room for growth like Keelan and Alabama for example I think they're a team that that kind of did a lot of what we just talked about the pre snap infractions the late game penalties issues fumbles on meshes on jets we breed just stuff like that just stuff that wasn't clean so I think on the road those things get heightened so Bama needs to be super sharp with their

40:40pre snap operation they need to be super sharp with their protection adjustments as they were free runners last week for sure I also think that Bama matches up a little bit better it's going to sound crazy they match up a little bit better against a team like Kentucky or an SEC team then they do it against a team like East Carolina or USF that we saw the last couple years because those guys and Jeff you know this like they're just doing like twists and all this crazy weird stuff along the defensive line so it doesn't look clean for the offensive line and they're using athleticism as opposed to just trying to play mono-emano in two-gap so I think Bama matches up a little bit better with their offensive line against this group but I still think Kentucky's got some explosiveness they have tight ends they can be a mismatched problem and if those tight ends can get going they can create big issues for Alabama who's going to probably play and live mostly in nickel personnel we all love the overreactions after week one of the college football season depending on whether it was

41:41Oregon or whomever is there a situation a team again that you think the overreaction might be a little bit too ridiculous and it might result in our world here of potentially getting a little bit of a discount on a team that's really really there's so much overreaction it's absurd one that I think stands out and it might involve Oregon like I think Oklahoma State will have a little something for him I would not take the pokes and the points in that game I don't care if it's three touchdowns I just don't feel good about it I think the Michigan overreaction is is something that's worth knowing like the fact that that's total open the 40s that you got to hop on that thing early on the under I don't know how it gets there I didn't see a ton of progress from the Oklahoma side offensively I think they're a little more multiple than they were there was some things I liked that they utilized the tight ends with I think the tight ends can be difference makers for them maybe there's another gear in there and granted they played UTIPS so it's hard to take a lot from it so that would be one that I think if you were trying to be on the sharp side I don't

42:45know a soul not one soul that is on Michigan in this game but in a game that might be 1713 and the game that could be 1410 and a game that I think goes way under the number I think you got a real chance to maybe catch a little value if it does get to the six six and a half seven range of the money keeps flying on the sooners is LSU for real because I think a lot of us were sort of waiting to see what it looked like I know maybe in this room right here we weren't as high as LSU's maybe other people were that came out dominated Clemson is this a real thing they're building here this year could they be an SCC champion or someone that it's a playoff team yeah I think they can be you know the here's the thing I'll tell you about them and like just watching them closely I thought the passing game early was a was it super sharp the thing that always scares me we did this with Auburn last year we've done this with teams in the past when quarterback scramble is your it became a bit of an identity for them I remember a week one

43:50last year's like oh look at Auburn look at Jackson on the least fixed and it's like okay well hang on a second like you scramble all over the place against the defense that ended up being you know 120 third in the nation against the run so I think we can overreact a little bit to quarterback scramble and there was a lot of quarterback scramble in there last week against Clemson the two takeaways I have from LSU is that while the passing game might still be a work in progress I think it's still room to grow there they did hit a couple big plays I think at that point though Clemson had come to fold to 10 I loved how the running backs ran that was big they ran through contact I thought that they they got yarded for contact they hit the whole hard I like that the other thing is their defense is legit like that is a really athletic defense and a lot of that has to do with Clemson I did not like Clemson's plan at all I thought it was it was not a plan that I would have gone into in a game like that but at the same time look hindsight's 2020 that defense caused a lot of problems and they were aggressive and the athletic system at linebacker was on display so

44:54while we're all going to lose our mind and and what the bet about 38 first downs and all the other stuff that defense holding Clemson to 1 to 13 on third down the defense holding Clemson to 145 yards and just say first downs like the defense is what will get them where they need to go assuming they can continue to create conflict in the backfield the way they did last weekend which programs and more trouble Greg Florida State or Clemson I think Florida State on Monday was can you all probably know the stats when was the last time the team was plus four in the turnover margin and and lost I know one and it was Duke SMU two years ago and Duke lost the game when an SMU it was minus four in the turnover margin so like that's the only one I can think of in recent history it's rare so to get that many opportunities and to not be able to pay it off was concerning now I like SMU but that was that was a concern but to answer your

45:59question is still probably Clemson I know it's like a roundabout way of getting into it and it's because the expectations for Clemson remain high my question is not that they don't have talent they do have talent there's no denying that they have talent I love their wide outs like I think they have pieces that are good I thought the defense at times like I know they gave up 600 yards but like early they were battling like they had they had no choice but the battle and try to create some problems but I did not like at all some of the adjustments I did not like at all the overall plan going into the game and I worried too they always are going to have talent but when you are a developmental program you you have guys but a lot of those guys have played minimal snaps compared to the teams that you're playing against and you're bringing in these teams that are bringing in 40 transfers or 40 new players a year those guys have snap equity in some cases thousands upon thousands of snaps having played at the college level so they might be equal in talent to Clemson

47:01but they're way ahead and experience and that to me is something that might be a bit concerning because last year was supposed to be their year and it wasn't where it wasn't what you wanted and this year is off to a really ugly start so when we've seen this before from Clemson we've counted them out we doubted them we've said they're done and that was two years ago they lost 34 three against Georgia in the opener come back make the playoff when the HTC so I don't want to completely write them off right now of the week one performances Clemson was far more disappointing yeah I think Davos when he's reaction at the press conference the other day too I think he's going to try and pull that same rabbit out of a hat poor performance that we play 12 games ask me if 12 games but yeah you're talking a bunch of guys here who had SMU team total over 27 and a half so I think we're still trying to figure out how we lost that one against the Noles but appreciate your time have a great weekend enjoy your game thank you for joining us here but thank you to Greg McIrwar for joining us that was a lot of fun to talk about ball with him a lot of a lot of topics covered excited for the games this weekend he's doing Alabama and Kentucky so make sure to check that one

48:02out here all right bear time for best bets what do we got from you light card this week and I don't want to go too far in because what wasn't a ton of out that are the really liked right now but 15 picks like giving out not good no no usually when you're giving out 15 picks you're probably not going to do very well but I got four that I thought fit for the best bet category really well I talked about Mississippi State just going to play them on the money line and you can find them as a dog with one and a half I would do that I think they are the right side here I think they're better than Minnesota FIU was a team that I used actually in the the college football contest last week late in the week I got on FIU plus the points relatively a covered against us F offense did not look great but they're laying a big number this week against Buffalo Buffalo new freshman quarterback couple of rebuilt offensive and defensive lines FIU's defense played really well last week I don't think Buffalo is going to be able to score for many points so I think they're fairly beat Albany right last week yes yes this could be one of those games you'll look up and it's like 20 27 3 FIU you're

49:07like how do we get here so I play a late 10 and a half of the FIU Texas money line again FIU the best money line you can get that way take take a one point win out of play and then our favorite two teams Duke and Illinois Duke's offense was not good last week at all I don't think Illinois's offense is very good at all they really struggled certainly early on last week I'm sure they'll get better but under 51 and a half Duke Illinois all right Sammy Minnesota row the bow baby so we are heads up with bear as we've already discussed take the point to half though with Fandall and just in case it's 31 to 30 not that it's going to be that high scoring but you want to take the point to half or take the plus price on the money line but I'm taking the point to have Florida Atlantic plus five I think they're a real good shot to upset Navy and I'm taking to do plus six only because I'm old they owe me from last year Jeff I'm not going to watch Duke Illinois I wasn't planning probably planning on making this a big screen game but I feel like I have to make it a big screen game because you guys are so involved

50:11in it FS1330 Eastern I'll be in front of the television after the Thunder bats go to and oh on the season all right my my four best bets you know these are going to kind of a compilation of what we talked about already I like Oregon State plus 25 I should be 26 and a half hosting Texas Tech in this game I thought the beavers played relatively well last week in Texas it's a great look ahead spot to Houston here I Minnesota plus one and a half were on the same way you're there I like Purdue plus three and a half and they're hosting wake force talked about that game earlier and wrapping up with the over in the U.S. San Diego State bad week I got great numbers last week bear owing three terrible numbers this week let's go for no baby reverse it yeah I'm sorry I apologize to everybody for the best bets not not having NFCS FPS game I like we did a lot I did wonder from Mercyhurst just stayed out in New Mexico because they played New Mexico state last week yes and now they play New Mexico so I would imagine you know you're not flying from New Mexico to back to eerie Pennsylvania then flying back across you have the money to stay in New Mexico with

51:11your team for a week well what's what's what's what's better what what's the worst option like flying back on an overnight flight we have a merciless expert you could text on your on your I do not I do not have a mercy her as expert knows what's the final score that game last all it was like 50 50 to 13 or 15 it went over okay so and then you got two more fcs favorites over FPS games this year this week Montana State who's really really good fcs team favorite over Nevada and Illinois State favorite over Northern Illinois back Sammy you're gonna go to the cow no on Saturday watch uh no no that was a quick answer not being the cow he shot that damn pretty quick well better way spend a spend a day uh in Chicago in Chicago in Chicago in Chicago lab yeah air quotes air quotes exactly we'll put air quotes on uh this edition of

52:12bear bets as well thanks for a great knock away for joining us this week thanks to Sammy thanks chef as always thanks to you the listener the viewer the watcher whatever you want to call your self-rate you describe remember lest you bet more you listen to it