Oil Still Fuels Markets with Earnings, Data Scarce

Welcome to the Schwab Market Update Podcast, where we prepare you for each trading day with

a recap of recent news and look at what's ahead.

I'm Keith Landsford and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Thursday, March 26.

Hopes for de-escalation have major indexes higher so far this week, despite continued conflict.

Any new diplomatic development, along with moves in the oil market that's closely correlated

with stock prices, could fuel Wall Street sentiment today in what's traditionally a slow

time for markets with little data or earnings.

Oil fell and stocks rose yesterday after Pakistan delivered a 15-point peace plan from

the U.S. to Iran, the New York Times reported.

Iran said it won't accept U.S. efforts toward a ceasefire or engage in direct talks with the U.S.

However, Iran said it is examining the U.S. plan and countered with a proposal unlikely

to be accepted, calling on the U.S. to make reparations and give Iran control of the

straight of Hormuz.

On a more positive note, Iran said it would allow non-hostile ships to traverse the

straight.

Traffic through that key energy choke point remains thin according to media reports, but

a small number of vessels went through.

This is likely why crude oil prices fell roughly 2 percent on Wednesday.

At the same time, the U.S. ascending more soldiers towards the region, another sign of how

things remain in flux.

Here at home, investors face a Thursday packed with Federal Reserve remarks.

Governors Lisa Cook, Stephen Myron and Michael Barr speak this afternoon and evening, and

Vice Chair Philip Jefferson delivers a speech on the economic outlook and energy prices

at 7 p.m. eastern time that sounds like it might have market implications.

With only around six weeks until Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's term ends, there's still

no hearing scheduled by the Senate Banking Committee on his replacement.

Trump's nomination of Kevin Worsh has been held up amid the administration's criminal

investigation of Powell, the last week a federal judge quashed subpoenas in the case, saying

it had no substance.

Also in Washington, outlines of a bipartisan deal emerged that could fund the Department

of Homeland Security, except for ISIS migrant removal operations.

Time is tight to get something across the finish line by Friday, but I think there is still

at least a 60-40 chance it happens," said Michael Townsend, managing director of legislative

and regulatory affairs at Schwab, noting that a two-week congressional recess begins tomorrow

afternoon.

The optics of Congress leaving town for two weeks without resolving the shutdown would

be politically terrible.

Today is light on data, but tomorrow features the University of Michigan's final March

consumer sentiment figure after the initial report pegged headline sentiment at a tepid

55.5%.

Investors will likely focus on five-year inflation expectations to see if they rose from

the preliminary report's 3.2%.

The headline figure earlier this month was the lowest in three months and reflected initial

concerns as the Iran War began.

The data yesterday, U.S. import prices rose 1.3% month over month in February.

The U.S. government said the largest increase since March of 2022.

Keep in mind that if other countries were bearing the tariff burden, we wouldn't be seeing

import prices going up like this," said Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy

at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

Rising import prices followed higher costs, noted in global PMI reports released earlier

this week, and both sets of data showed an impact from rising oil prices.

U.S. labor costs also rose in the U.S. last quarter of the government said this week.

All this could eventually have a negative impact on company margins, though analysts still

predict solid earnings growth this year.

U.S. crude oil inventories rose nearly 7 million barrels last week the government said Wednesday,

compared with market expectations of less than 1 million.

Gasoline supplies fell sharply last week, and oil inventories are very close to the five

year average for this time of year.

Gas prices edged up near $4 per gallon on average by midweek, AAA reported, and diesel fuel

prices neared $5.50.

That's devastating for trucking firms, and for farmers getting fields ready to plant while

already facing rising fertilizer costs.

The U.S. Postal Service announced Wednesday it's adding an 8% fuel surcharge to packages.

However, airline executives appear to be looking through the crisis as United Airlines

announced it expects to take delivery of more than 250 new aircraft by April of 2028.

United CEO Scott Kirby told CNBC this week that demand for main cabin seats is improving,

though premium demand still leads.

Bond yields fell Wednesday on hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East and lower oil prices.

The drop occurred despite another disappointing Treasury auction this time of $70 billion

in five year notes.

The high yield was 3.98% in the auction, and short-term Treasury yields traded at nearly

nine month highs late Wednesday despite the day's slight dip.

Soft demand at Treasury auctions all this month suggests participants demand higher yields

to take their chances with U.S. debt, possibly driven by anticipated growth in U.S. government

spending due to the war and crude's rally.

Increased spending threatens to raise the debt further when it's already approaching $40

trillion.

This has a real-world impact with 30-year mortgage rates recently touching 6.5% up from

6% a month ago, and weekly mortgage applications falling 10% last week.

Earnings are light this week, and results are mixed so far.

KB home disappointed with its results late Tuesday, but pet retailer Chui impressed early Wednesday.

No further significant earnings are due this week, but Nike reports next week.

Major Wall Street indexes posted another solid outing Wednesday despite Iran denying its

negotiating with the U.S. over the conflict, oil fell on hopes for some sort of resolution.

It's now been nearly four weeks since the war began, and President Trump at that time

estimated it could last four weeks.

From a technical standpoint, major indexes remain below their respective 200-day simple

moving averages, despite this week's attempts to rebound from six-month lows recorded

last Friday.

The S&P 500 index clawed briefly above its 200-day moving average of 6,630 intraday Wednesday

as it did Monday.

Neither time could it hold those gains, and with the SIBO volatility index or VIX still

historically high above 25, there doesn't seem to be much interest in testing S&P 500 resistance.

The S&P 500 now seems caught in a tight trading range between last week's lows near 6,500,

and this week's highs near the 200-day moving average.

Without further progress towards peace, this might remain a window to watch.

Market breadth measured by the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their respective

50-day moving averages remains in the dull drums at 28.5%, though up from 17% at its lows

last week.

Stepping back, it's a more positive story, as nearly 50% of S&P 500 stocks now top their

200-day moving averages.

That's down from this year's peak near 70% when a broad rally lifted most sectors.

Bret them proved midweek as 10 of 11 S&P 500 sectors rose for the day Wednesday after 11

rose Tuesday.

Leaders again included cyclicals like materials, consume discretionary and health care.

Lower oil prices have correlated with discretionary sector strength recently, assigned that investors

are focused on inflation's consumer impact.

Still, the S&P 500 is down less than 5% since the start of the war.

The fact that it hasn't completely fallen out of bed could reflect ideas that fighting

won't be drawn out.

Moody's analytics said this week that odds of a U.S. recession are up and appear more

likely without a quick end to the conflict.

The small cap Russell 2000 index outpaced rivals Wednesday for the second consecutive

day as yields fell.

In individual trading Wednesday, arm holdings soared 16%, the semiconductor design firm said

it expects its CPU business to reach $15 billion in revenue by fiscal 2031 as it begins

making its own data-centered chips.

The company also reaffirmed its fiscal fourth quarter guidance and increased its operating

margin target.

Chewie leaped 14% following earnings.

The company beat consensus on earnings per share and reported revenues in line with consensus.

Its outlook also topped expectations.

Alibaba added 3% Wednesday.

Barons reports that China's state administration for market regulation appeared to signal on

Wednesday that it would move to end the food delivery price war, which has squeezed margins

in recent years.

Chip and chip-related names revived Wednesday led by 7% gains for a super-micro-computer

advanced micro-devices and Intel, Marvel technology and CoreWeave also rallied.

The PhLX semiconductor index is down 1.5% since the war began, but still up firmly this year.

Memory-related chip stocks buck the trend, falling Wednesday.

And gold, silver, and copper all climbed moderately Wednesday as oil prices fell, along with

the dollar.

But now Jones Industrial Average climbed to 305.43 points Wednesday or 0.66% to 46,429.49.

The S&P 500 index edged up 35.53 points or 0.54% to 6,591.90, and the NASDAQ composite

added 167.93 points or 0.77% to 21,929.82.

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