Oil Surges Past $100 a Barrel; Khamenei’s Son Takes Power in Iran

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Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager.

And I'm Karen Moskow.

Here are the stories we're following today.

Karen, it's day 10 with the war with Iran.

Once again, there is little sign of let up on either side.

The U.S. and Israel continue to launch heavy air strikes on Tehran.

While Iran is attacking Israel and Arab Gulf states regularly with drones and missiles.

Iran says it can keep up this level of fighting for at least six months.

But Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says at some point, Iran will surrender.

We're not flying a mission accomplished banner like George W. Bush on an aircraft carrier.

We're not doing that, and we haven't done that.

But we can be clear with the American people that this is not a fair fight, and that's on purpose.

Our capabilities are overwhelmed compared to what Iran's are.

In an interview on CBS's 60 Minutes, heard Sundays on Bloomberg Radio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said President Trump will set the terms of Iran's surrender.

But former U.S. Ambassador to Israel, Tom Nide says it's important to take a step back.

We have to understand what the objectives of this is and how do we determine what successes that must your successes and escalate.

Quote regime change, but one will have to debate that.

And I do believe Congress has a role here guys.

I think it's important for us to understand that.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel, Tom Nide's was a guest on our new show Bloomberg this weekend.

In the meantime, the U.S. has ordered non-essential diplomats in Saudi Arabia to leave.

That's after a U.S. service member wounded in an attack over the weekend, died overnight, bringing the U.S. death toll to seven.

Iran says more than 1,300 people have died in U.S. and Israeli strikes so far.

Sources tell Bloomberg News that President Trump is considering a special forces ground operation to seize Iran's enriched uranium.

That's on growing concerns. It may have been moved.

President Trump says that's something he could do later on, but he's not considering it right now.

Well, Nathan Iran is signaling no let up to the war after naming the hard lines son of the assassinated Ayatollah Ali Hamani as its new supreme leader.

56-year-old Moschabah Hamani has deep ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard.

Bloomberg senior editor Wendy Benjaminson says the decision was not a surprise.

This was the man that the U.S. really expected would take over for his father.

It's the first generational succession since the 1979 revolution.

And he seems to be the kind of guy who will continue in his father's footsteps in every way.

The Bloomberg's Wendy Benjaminson, President Trump told Fox News.

He was unhappy with Moschabah's nominees appointment.

Karen Oil has smashed through $100 a barrel this morning as the war rages on checking 9x crude right now.

It's up nearly 14% at $103.36 per barrel.

Brent is up 15% at $106.62.

The price was even higher earlier, but talks on a coordinated release of reserves took some heat out of the market.

Steven Stepchinsky leads Bloomberg's team covering energy in Asia.

I think some of the worrying things that happened over the weekend is the retaliatory strikes from Iran continued.

It did not look like there was any easing of tension.

In fact, it looked like it was getting worse.

The U.S. wasn't showing like it's going to back down, especially rhetoric coming out of the White House and from Trump himself.

And then on top of that, you had some major producers.

You had Kuwait and you also had ad knock looking to adjust or lower their oil production because their inventories are getting high as they can't export the fuel.

Bloomberg Steven Stepchinsky says the group of seven finance ministers will discuss a possible joint release of oil from their reserves today.

President Trump says $100 oil is a, quote, small price to pay for world safety and peace.

Well, Nathan oil is not the only thing on the move this morning.

We're seeing a big sell off and stocks around the world.

And Bloomberg's John Tucker joins us with the very latest John Good morning and carrying U.S. stock futures down over 1%.

Japan's Nikkei plunged 5% this morning, sending that market into correction.

Global bonds, they continue to sell off.

So that's pushing yields even higher, about $6 trillion of market value has now been erased from global stocks since the war in Iran began.

Investors are pricing in a deeper and longer lasting supply shock.

This is one that could squeeze growth while reigniting inflation.

Well, we know a stagflation.

The dollar has emerged as the haven asset of choice with the Bloomberg dollar spot index up almost 2% since the war began.

Now, that adds to cost pressures since oil is priced in dollars.

And Helen Jule of Black Roxas, the war introduced more unwelcome obstacles for investors.

Uncertainty about the Fed path, which we didn't have just a few weeks ago.

Well, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have already been paired back.

In veteran strategies to ed your denny has raised the probability of a market meltdown.

As he puts it, the U.S. economy and stock market are stuck between Iran and a hard place.

You know, you're come John Tucker Bloomberg radio.

All right, John. Thank you.

There's another source of tension in New York City.

Authorities are investigating potential terrorism linked to two suspects in custody of what police commissioner Jessica Tish says was an improvised explosive device thrown near Mayor Zorn Mamdani's residence.

Tish says the device was thrown by a counter protestor during an anti-Islam demonstration.

Witnesses reported seeing flames and smoke as it traveled through the air.

Before it struck a barrier and extinguished itself, a few feet from police officers.

New York City Police Commissioner Jessica Tish says the confrontation unfolded outside Mayor Mamdani's home during a protest organized by far right activist Jake Lang to quote,

stop the Islamic takeover of New York City.

Well, in Europe, Nathan Chancellor Friedrich Murts suffered a setback after his conservatives lost a crucial state election to the greens.

The loss is ominous for Murts whose authority will be tested in four more regional elections this year.

Turning back to markets now, Karen Bloomberg news has learned live nations close to settling a federal antitrust lawsuit accusing the company of illegally monopolizing the live music industry.

The settlement discussions have intensified since a trial kicked off last week.

Under the proposed plan, live nations ticket master subsidiary would eliminate some exclusivity and ticketing contracts with concert venues.

As well as make some concessions around the use of its amphitheaters.

Nathan about a confidence for Nvidia billionaire Leo Kualguin doubled his stake in the chip giant to two million shares.

While small relative to his 13.4 billion dollar fortune is measured by the Bloomberg billionaire's index, the acquisition is a notable move by Kualguin whose net worth for years largely has been tied up in just one stock.

Tesla and this program no care in markets may close on Fridays, but the world doesn't and that's why we are bringing you a new live radio and TV show Bloomberg this weekend.

It looks beyond the daily headlines to the bigger themes driving politics, business and culture.

Join David Gura, Christina Rafini and Lisa Mateo for smart conversations and in-depth interviews that help make sense of the week that's been and what comes next.

Get Bloomberg this week and live Saturdays and Sundays from 7 a.m. Eastern on Bloomberg radio, television and the Bloomberg business app.

Time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world.

And for that, we're joined by Bloomberg, Michael Barr, Michael Good Morning.

Good morning, Karen, the partial government shutdown at the Department of Homeland Security is being felt by air travelers spending hours in security lines at airports like Louis Armstrong International Airport in New Orleans and Hobby Airport in Houston.

This woman waited for hours and missed flights out of Houston. She says nerves are fried.

There's a lot of frustration and a lot of people are very upset.

Kind of sad that they're not being aware they're supposed to be going and frustrated to be in line.

Officials in New Orleans told flyers to show up three hours ahead of their flight because of a shortage of TSA agents.

The New York Police Department is mourning the loss of one of their officers while helping the U.S. mission in a run.

Officer Sorfly Davis suffered a fatal medical emergency and died while deployed to Kuwait.

Davis, who was a major in the Army National Guard, was a 12-year veteran of the NYPD.

The California Public Health Department is mourning the bird flu virus is a serious problem, sickening marine mammals too.

Dr. John Swartzberg, clinical professor emeritus at UC Berkeley School of Public Health, alerts Bay Area residents bringing pets to the beach to be wear.

You should be careful when you're approaching other mammals, particularly if you're going to be for example on the beach and UC a seal, particularly if the seal looks sick, but a well animal could certainly be infected and spread the viruses as well.

The Marine Mammal Center in Marin County reminds people and their pets that they should not approach live or dead animals.

In Los Angeles, a person fired shots into the home of singer Rihanna on Sunday afternoon while she was at home. Fortunately, no one was hurt.

A female suspect is in custody. Global news 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News now, Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg Karen.

Thanks, Michael. Time now for our Bloomberg Sports Update and for that, we bring in John Stashauer.

Thanks Karen and I feel free agents can begin sunny and officially on Wednesday, but we'll start hearing about some of those signings today.

Among the free agents, quarterbacks like Kyler Murray and Kirk Cousins, receivers like Mike Evans and Timer Kale and a running back in Kenneth Walker, who was the Super Bowl MVP.

The golf in Florida was won by Akshay Betia and a playoff with Daniel Berger. The Celtics have gotten Jason Tatum back from that leg injuries now played in two games.

And the Celtics have won on both. It was 109.98 in Cleveland. That's your Bloomberg Sports Update.

Stay with us more from Bloomberg Daybreak coming up after this.

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Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio nationwide on Series XM and around the world on Bloomberg.com and the Bloomberg business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager on Day 10 of the war with Iran. President Trump has said there will be no deal with Tehran until unconditional surrender asked what that looks like.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had this to say on CBS's 60 Minutes.

This is not a remaking of the Iranian society from an American perspective. We tried that. The American people have rejected that. President Trump called those wars dumb. And we're not fighting that way.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on 60 Minutes heard Sundays on Bloomberg Radio this morning. We're joined by Bloomberg News Deputy Washington Bureau Chief Laura Davison and with us from Dubai this morning is Bloomberg Middle East corresponded.

Jumana Bersetchi the anchor of Bloomberg horizons. Good morning to both of you. Jumana. I'll start with you just to give us the latest on what has been happening in the Middle East. Good morning.

Yes. Well, the main news of the weekend was the appointment of the new Supreme Leader, essentially the son of the former Supreme Leader Moushtabah Khabaneh.

And many are taking that as an act of defiance. He's essentially a continuity candidate. The IRGC are very, very close to Moushtabah Khabaneh. They've already pledged full obedience to him in a statement.

And remember, this is an individual who was placed under U.S. sanctions in 2019. He's been accused of influencing past elections and very brutal security crackdowns in the past.

And so the fact that he was appointed and elevated to this position tells you that Iran continued to be defiant and that the security system, the military system are going to continue to play a very dominant role in terms of decision making around all of the nuclear and military decisions that they've been making around the war.

And President Trump has also in the run up to this deemed the selection of Moushtabah Khabaneh to be an unacceptable choice and has reiterated over the weekend that they're going to be pushing for a complete surrender.

The fact that the Iranians have actually appointed the son of Ali Khabaneh suggests that they are not going to yield at least eminently to some of the demands that the U.S. have been asking for.

Let's bring you into this, Laura, because as Jumana mentions, President Trump has said he's not happy with the appointment. He's said that he wanted a personal role in choosing Iran's next leader. What kind of a response can we expect from the U.S. now?

The U.S. is looking at a bunch of different options. Trump went into the weekend saying that he would be striking different sites in Iran that had not previously been targeted.

We've really seen a broadening and escalating of the war over the weekend as there's been additional strikes.

The U.S. is also reportedly considering looking at some sort of special operations ground strike.

This would go against what Trump and other top officials have said in recent days that they're not incending any ground troops, no ground operation.

This one would specifically focus on looking at securing the enriched uranium supplies and somehow taking that away from the Iranians.

This, of course, would be a really big escalation, both in terms of exactly the U.S. is role here, but also in terms of risk that this is a much riskier expedition than what's been happening so far.

This is really, as we've just seen, safety concerns spread across the region, the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, they've asked all diplomats who are not emergency personnel to leave along with their family members.

This is the first of such of those orders, not to mention all of the economic spillover effects we've seen with oil smashing through that $100 barrel marker and just at least so far today, both in Europe and Asia.

Mark, it's really not responding well, which creates a political problem for Trump at home.

What do we know, Jumana, about the situation on the ground in Tehran right now, where the possibility is of the uranium being located and what kind of damage Tehran has been under at this point?

Well, you know, let me just go back to your first question. I think, you know, in many respects to go back to what I was saying about Mojtab Ahmadiyy, he does represent continuity of the regime and the very strong presence of the revolutionary guard corps.

So from that perspective, he represents everything that all of those demonstrators were protesting against earlier this year.

However, there's little sign of the system collapsing from within and there has not been any reporting or recent reporting of demonstrators taking to the streets if anything that has been reporting of the Iranian regime preparing the paramilitary force, the Basige, to get ready in case people start taking to the streets again.

Now, as for the location of the enriched stockpile, you know, this has been a question that has been towing. I think the minds of experts ever since the 12-day war from last June.

But satellite imagery, even in the run-up to this war, the most recent war suggested a bit of activity around the Isfahan sites.

And the latest reporting that Laura was just signing there, you know, that US officials are considering sending a specialized force over there to help somehow retrieve that enriched stockpile would take place around the Isfahan site because of increased detected activity on satellite imagery that we saw in the run-up to the wars.

So, of course, it is very risky. And ultimately, it boils down to two choices. You know, if they want to take on that rest and put troops on the ground to go and try to retrieve the stockpile, they've got two things that they can do with this.

They can try to extract it from the country, which is similar to what happens in the run-up to the JCPOA, or they can try to dilute it.

But at a time of, you know, extreme war and targeted military operations with Iran on the offensive, again, it raises a lot of question marks about sort of what the security situation would be if the US were to commit to sending troops or extra personnel to Iran to try to retrieve this uranium.

We're speaking with Bloomberg Middle East correspondent Jumana Bersetchi and Dubai, along with Bloomberg News Deputy Washington Bureau Chief Laura Davison.

And just picking up on what Jumana was saying in terms of the security situation in the Middle East, right now, of course, we've seen Iran respond to US and Israeli attacks with retaliatory strikes across the Middle East.

And now the news overnight that the US Embassy in Riyadh is being ordered in all of Saudi Arabia is being ordered to get out of the country in terms of American citizens there.

What is the potential now of a wider war? What is the signal that the US is sending by essentially evacuating Saudi Arabia?

This is a signal that the US expects that there will be more strikes, bigger strikes, broader strikes. It was the same, you know, a similar but more targeted signal we saw the State Department send before the war began, you know, just nine days ago, asking diplomats and non-essential people and giving them the option to leave some of the embassies in the region.

You know, these orders are essentially a precursor for an expectation that things will get more dangerous, not less.

And this is kind of the same sort of, you know, a sentiment that we've really seen ripple across the globe today, you know, both from on the market side as well as from the diplomatic and geopolitical side, realizing that this is likely not going to be a short term conflict and that this is something that will last weeks, if not months, with there's no real clear end in sight, you know, with both sides, both Iran and the US saying that they, you know, want the other side to surrender.

They're not willing to negotiate. There's no clear out yet, particularly because the US has not articulated what it sees as success here. Trump has talked about regime shade and she's talked about, you know, Iran being disarmed, but there's been no clear sense here about what the US is actually seeking.

And the response from the Middle East, as you know, Jumana has been curtailment of oil production from several countries, including Kuwait and Qatar with the liquefied natural gas.

This news that the G7 might be considering a joint release from their reserves has taken some pressure off the market this morning, but what are you looking at in terms of market impact right now?

Yeah, I mean, the oil price moves this morning have been nothing short of extraordinary. When I was on air a couple of hours ago, we got very close to $120 a barrel where Brent was trading.

At around the same time, these reports came out suggesting that the G7 finance minister were having an emergency meeting to discuss the release of strategic petroleum reserves, those SPRs.

And on the back of that, you saw some of the gains get raised that we're still up anything from 10 to 15% just today.

And so this really does speak to tightening physical supply and you know, speaking to many experts in the industry, the analysts around the main problem here is not necessarily the fact that these sites have sustained a lot of damage because they haven't.

They can still produce if they want to produce. The issue is getting the oil and the gas and the other products derived from gas out there and through the straight of hormones.

So that is the major concern here and effectively what it means is as long as the straight of hormones remains effectively closed for the safe safe passage of vessels.

You're going to continue to be in a situation where many of these key OPEC producers are getting increasingly concerned about their storage getting filled up and they have many of them announced that they are either cutting production slowing down production or announcing forced measures with some of their key customers this morning.

Bairian also joined the list of some of the refiners in the region that have announced a forced measure with their customers.

So this squeeze the physical squeeze on the market doesn't seem to be letting up even though the announcement and the potential release of SPR from an oil perspective could help ease some of the upward price, upward movement price.

Thanks to both of you for this Bloomberg's Jumana Bersecci with us this morning from Dubai along with Bloomberg, Deputy Washington bureau chief Laura Davis.

Nathan and stocks are tumbling as the war in the Middle East fuels turmoil and energy markets sending oil above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022.

Bomb losses are accelerating while the dollar hits its highest level since January.

S&P futures they're down nine tenths of a percent on 62 points down futures down 1.1% or 524 points and NASDAQ futures down 1% or 255 points were joined now by Ethan Devitt Senior Investment Advisor at Monetta Group and Ethan Good Morning.

Thanks for being here.

You say the oil price shock is the story of the week, but is this a short term story? What if this drags on?

Would very well be a short term story. We don't know yet. That is exactly the uncertainty. I'd say if we look to predictions say that's a built into inflation expectations.

They may be stale now, but nobody foresaw this shock as you mentioned the spike in oil and the rest of the picture for inflation was looking quite subdued up to now.

We had based our interest rate expectations on that and the consumer was feeling relatively complacent based on that.

This of course is a shock and we know it's going to just start to have collateral damage throughout different sectors as importers are affected.

The question is whether this will come to the week's resolution that had been the narrative and whether this gets dragged on.

There's very much a fluid situation, so I think investors are watching just like everybody else.

Well, a fluid situation indeed you also talk a bit about shock absorbers and if they'll be effective.

So where should we be watching to see if that's the case?

Great, great question. And I'd say there's a retail investor and an institutional investor in this.

You spoke about stocks tumbling. I doubt that the retail investor is already participating in that.

They do not have the access to the early access to be able to make decisions on the fly and most retail investors have been coached by their advisors to stay the course be more long term and not try to practically maneuver here.

But where are the shock absorbers in markets? A diversified portfolio should have exposure to that.

I would say gold is the traditional shock absorber when there is this kind of geopolitical shock.

We know that gold itself has been a bit distorted by the high degree of retail selling.

So we have to almost put that on the side for the moment.

Cash is a typical shock absorber but no investor wants to be in cash for too long today because they're afraid of missing out.

Oil itself and energy will be a shock absorber. We can see that we should have had exposure to energy stocks.

We know that energy is in short supply.

And then the AI and tech story, which has been the big long term shock absorber that has sustained markets for years, that's got its own cracks today.

So that really has to be on the side. So it's not clear for the traditional shock absorbers are.

But if there is cash out there, will people eventually see this as a buying opportunity?

Should we expect a bouncer? Is there still some reticence as we can't really predict what's going to happen?

It's a great question and the million dollar question indeed is whether the cash will stay on the sidelines.

Particularly if inflation starts to erode it, it doesn't look particularly safe.

Or whether there will be that need your reaction to wish to buy the dip, which is something that we've seen quite a bit in recent downturns.

A very swift turnaround and desire to buy the dip.

We saw that in the softwares of service, the SaaS apocalypse.

Already we have many commentators in a sort of a feeding frenzy over where the SaaS stocks that are being oversold are.

So my suggestion is that because of this strong need to have growth in a portfolio, there is a strong need not to be out of equities for too long.

And that's where the equities on the sidelines are.

This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the story's making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.

Look for us on your podcast feed by 6 a.m. Eastern each morning on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen.

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I'm Karen Moscow.

And I'm Nathan Hager. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak.

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