Oil Surges Past $94, Yen Rips Higher & Hunter Biden Launches a Memecoin

0:00Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the modern market. Every day we discuss all things to do with the markets. That is the crypto market, the equities market and any other market where the numbers are going higher or lower depending on the day, but we've been having some good action recently, particularly in crypto, which is what we specialize in. Delighted to say we are back after Labor Day, I've got legendary in the co-host seat with me today, but just a reminder, friends, before we get into it, nothing that we say on this show is financial advice. The market is very risky. We don't know anything for sure. So please always do your own research and proceed with caution in what appears to be a bullish market with some roadblocks, one of which was announced yesterday. We'll talk about it in detail today, Monday, GWP in the chat, morning to BRNRDY.

1:00Brandy is how I'm going to pronounce that. Let's get into it, starting with your headlines for today on Tuesday, 8th of September, 2026. We've got the yen hitting its strongest level against the US dollar since February. We obviously had the yen intervention not long ago, and I think this is still crucial to touch on because it was the yen intervention along with the Treasury buybacks, which just kind of kicked us off into this more speculative period of time where people are betting on the devaluation of the dollar. We'll also talk Hunter Biden planning to launch memecoin laptop on base. We'll see where we've got to with that news and what the exact dynamics are, if to what extent they have been revealed. Then, finally, we'll go macro again. We'll talk all of us are doing above $94. It's high level in three months. I kind of want to connect that to China gold buying.

2:01I want to talk a little bit about that as well today. Good morning to YG Drops in the chat. Morning to Leah Knight, Leah Knight, Pa Maizi. It's hard when these usenames are getting long. The usenames are long. The market is up, so it's fine. I'll deal with whatever you have for me. In other headlines, we have the news that Solano Launchpad's Stonk Fund, 24-hour revenue, it explodes to over $1 million. That is pretty impressive. China bought 650,000 ounces of gold last month. This is the largest monthly purchase since 2023. This is the point I wanted to make on gold. China just had its best earnings season in years as well. Canada has officially imposed new tariffs on the US of up to 50%. So this trade escalation between the China and the US is quite concerning, to be honest, we'll see where it plays out. But it's just so far removed from the traditional world order that we are accustomed to

3:04that I think you have to note it at a minimum. And then finally, Bank of Japan is dumping Japanese bonds at the farthest pace in history, according to this chart on bar chart. Right. So that is the other news for today. I just want to touch on the price action to get up to speed with what is going on there. Let's get into starting off the top with Bitcoin as always, which is down just a percent and a little bit to 78.2K. You've got ETH down 0.7% to 2.4. You've got hype down 5% to 83%. So you cash down 4% as well, 1,150. Pretty sure last time we did the show was sub 1000. So it doesn't feel too bad to be down 4% there. Oil that I mentioned WTI is up a percent and a half to 93. Brent is up to 98. Pumped down another 2% to 4.3. I want to share a little bit about a pump trade I had on recently, which I don't know, it kind of didn't go well,

4:06but I managed to get out and I just want to share my thinking around it. Soles down 2% to 102. Microns down 0.7%. Pons is down 10% to 0.71. Obviously that's the meme coin launch pad on Robinhood, which has been doing crazy numbers. And they had this stratospheric rise not long ago over the last week or so. Gold is more or less flat, around 4,392. So it was up half percent to 65. I do like the precious metals here still. Intel's up a percent and a half to 99. Well, well coin is up 4% to 47 cents lighter, up 5% again to 474, clearly one of the strongest coins with its attachment to Robinhood on the perpside. Arbottom up another 5% to 17 cents. But stocks have really been lagging here, like Nvidia stuck around 230, although that is still doing pretty well. SpaceX stuck down 1% to 148. Stocks are not putting in the moves that you would probably hope for at the moment.

5:09They've just a little bit frozen. Cash cat down 17%, which is pretty huge move down for cash cat. And I just I think a little bit crypto's fearing a little bit this Hunter Biden launch, which is coming a little bit later. But we'll talk about that in a bit more detail today. Morning to English in the chat. Morning to Kalechu. Wukoo. Good morning to Corona as well. Right, let's get into it starting with the main stuff, ledge all before we get into the main stuff. What's catching your attention here? What are you seeing? What are you noticing? What are you thinking about the markets at the moment after the long weekend? Yeah, markets. Market to fund trade right now further down the risk curve. I'm happy that I'm back in the trenches. Apart from that, if you look at the bigger things, if you look on the on the stock set of things, we have Apple being down to 1.5%. That is quite interesting because they have the new products to be presented tomorrow.

6:14We have talked about that last week. We have the new iPhone coming. We have for the first time a foldable iPhone coming, which is one that I personally excited for because I want to have that. They around with it. We have IOS 27 new Siri. Apple is selling off into that event. I think that there is a bit of anxiety how these things will do, how price increases will look like. If we see Apple go down further today, I will personally keep an eye on that because I think I would like to add to that position, even more if I get a further Apple discount. That is it on the less the general set of things. On the meme set of things, it's interesting. I will probably keep some more of my thoughts when we are going to talk about laptop. Because I traded some of the Robinhood derivatives before the official laptop is to come out. But it is now very interesting for me to observe how the flows are.

7:17I would say moving between Robinhood, between Solana, and there is a bit of base coming in. Then you have the established players, the pump funds with their own token, I start platform, then you have the quote unquote community platform. She feels like you have multiple things going on at the same time. I had put on the stonk trade yesterday when stonk was down 40, 50 percent almost on the day. recovered all the way back to 210 mil when I woke up. It was back down to 170 but still up the tone from where I had bought. So that was a nice trade that I put on with some size yesterday and exited the day after. Because I feel like now you have not only multiple chains to monitor, but you still have now the community versus the corporate launchers or stock tokenizers. But the amount of capital at the same time hasn't tripled or quadrupled.

8:22So I feel like a lot of these flows will be very aggressive and there is going to be a lot of momentum swings if news comes out that something is happening, someone is building something, pump on it is doing something. Then you will see stonks despite their earnings or the fee revenue they are making sell of like 50 percent in a day with all the recover the same amount the next day. That kind of trading that I am looking to do more and doing more and now than I am back in being interested in these stonk. Yeah, I think the thing that I agree with most that you are talking about is that I think that there is a limited amount of capital available for this stuff. I know people want to think that there is so much onboarding going on and I think in some ways they could be right. I do think FOMO is onboarding new people and I do think maybe pump to some extent is doing the same.

9:27I haven't quite looked into their numbers in the same way. I know FOMO is more than anything designed in a way that can get net new young people interested in trading assets and they don't even need to think is this crypto, is it not crypto, it doesn't matter, it's just a funny meme coin or it's a tokenized form of attention or whatever. I do think that there are more people getting bored but that doesn't mean that they are coming in with huge amounts of size. I don't think in my opinion and so if these things are getting more volatile at that bottom end which I think they are and the rotations between all of the Robin Hood tokens which then go into Silana who want to fight back and get some of this tokenized stock attention back to them plus any other kind of tokenized plus any other activity that they want to still fight for. Right Silana has done a good job establishing itself as one of the places to trade all assets.

10:33There should be a world where they want to fight for it and then you can't forget you have Kobe at base who is meant to be taking over trading and like figuring out how to turn get base going back in the right direction, get people trading on the base app I think making sure that that is its keep core focus. So I mean there's not enough capital to run or to make all the tokens launched on all of these chains successful at the same time. So I agree with you and I think people do need to get a little bit more defensive in my perspective. What do you think? And even the fact that you mentioned Kobe is like still the same players it's still the same like KOLs it means it's still the same people trading like if I were to be a new entrance in 2026 coming in with the relevant amount of capital I wouldn't be looking out for who's Kobe.

11:37What is Frank doing? What are the old people doing? It's the same people who know the same faces, who are looking at what has Frank traded, what is Kobe now doing that he's at base because we have been familiar with these people for years and years, which is exactly supporting that like hypothesis that it's the same capital moving around and yes in in absolute numbers of traders I definitely think that pump and formal are onboarding users but I think that if some a couple thousand people are joining that's not meant to sound disrespectful with 20, 50, 100 bucks I don't think that they are the ones moving the market I think it's the bigger positions which are like rotating and doing the swing of momentum trading or the the the Yoni kicks guys buying useless being up exiting some other thing that then certainly gets copied traded and amplified like it was probably

12:40the case with Frank and his his AMC trade after it got the exposure by by Vlad Robin Hood CEO posting about that but I very very strongly think it's to a good extent the same amount of people and I also see it in the trading that for me it feels like it trades very similar to how last the coin season traded in terms of behavior in terms of attention in terms of oh Hunter fighting is doing laptop every chance trying to have a laptop run before the laptop token launches some of them will shoot up explosively and dump immediately after so it structurally feels extremely similar to what we have seen before yeah yeah I think that's I can't hear you don't know if that's on me yeah that's what should be a story yes sorry that wasn't me yeah I think I think watching people's behavior as well I think I think people are really risking

13:45I think all this stuff is risk reward and okay fine when people initially bridged over to Robin Hood there's this golden moment in time which I think was there and I think there will still be a lot of activity and a lot of energy a lot of stuff happening there but the issue is that there's so many more things opening all the time so many more things coming out all the time also I mean we just didn't we we mentioned base um you mentioned base we mentioned Robin Hood we mentioned Salana BSC and CZ and Binance like there's that whole crowd as well where everyone wants to try to always get some exposure to whatever's going to come out of the east and not forget that so there's also that one and I do think it's it's so convoluted

14:52that um it it it's just worth I don't know look you you you can you can play things different ways right but my view would be in order to stack things and continue to grow your capital base over time it would be to if you're going to spin the slot which I think it increasingly is when you're dabbling in these really low cap things then as soon as you're up any reasonable amount you take it off and you start going into some of the midterm longer term crypto things that you think okay were if we're in a mid to you know if we're going to be into mid long time frame bull market you don't want to hold the random thing that's going to get rotated out of by next week that you're already up seven X on you probably want to take your five X leave it a little bit on for the next thing if you want to see it go higher but you take the five X and you put it in hype or you put it in Bitcoin or you put it in Zcash you put in gold or you put it in one of those things I feel

15:57like that's the smart way to I just went around yesterday after I saw the hunter Biden news and I saw a few things that I was up quite a lot on just because of yesterday's news and I just sold half of all of them and just straight into eith to be honest just to hold eith until I decide what I'm going to do next with it and it was like okay that's good I felt like that was the smart thing to yesterday I think things have sold off a little bit more since and I think those things can come back but you know got to keep reassessing your risk in this kind of market two questions on that a last take you said when something super dumb happens take some profits yeah do you still follow this rule yeah I think I think it's a really good way to look at it and I that's why even partly

17:00yesterday I took some off like if you see hunter Biden coming out with a meme coin everyone responded really negatively everyone knows it's dumb everyone thinks it's cheap it's like yeah sell some stuff sell some risk you just you don't I like getting out of the way of trains into the market like people are just going to drive a train right through your portfolio is like well I'm just going to not let you do that like I'm going to take something off try to get out of the way of people fighting trying any PVP I like to get out of the way of I don't want to I don't need to be in it that's my strategy that's kept me around a few cycles now um so yeah I think that is a good principle if you see things getting too stupid and actually to be honest a good date point is our telegram as well our telegrams on fire at the moment so much good stuff being shared so much activity so much like energy but I would say we reached a tipping point over this weekend where it's like I've never seen this amount being shared and increasingly people going further

18:04and further and further down the risk curve and I think when you see that as well you should think like okay why don't we just take some chips off and maybe we're going to need to reset for a moment because there's you can't do that for so long everyone's literally just going to run out of capital because you can't buy into the eleventh thing on the same day but you just no one has enough money to buy eleven things in one day unless you're buying hands then selling you can't buy and hold anything like that um we'll say good morning to Drew who's joining us on the show morning to funky morning to diabetes and morning to butcher and saying pre-laptop coins all died seems we've matured yeah let's see if the real one dies as well um of course they're going to die what else is going to happen uh to these things oxy ask why not denominate in eth given that I'm denominating in zcash this cycle uh yeah I did I actually just bought and held

19:06mainly because uh I don't know if you can get zcash on native uh robinhood right I don't think you can so if you're on the robinhood chain there's no bitcoin there's no gold there's no zcash I just have to hold eth until I decide what to do that I come forward to bridge away so I actually don't mind eth here though like I'm pretty constructive on eth at the moment um I think that's it's fine to also hold eth although I probably want uh zcash on a dip to be honest still uh English agreeing I agree there are too many coins I just think really honestly honestly honestly the velocity was so wild over the weekend and yeah it's that same concept of wanting to get out of get out of harm's way get out of uh the people who are swinging at each other like I don't want to be in between a humongous vamp attack between bsc base salana uh robinhood where all of

20:08their meme coin launch pads now want to be the best but like I don't care who wins and I don't need to back one of those horses I don't know who's gonna win and I know what I don't know so I don't know who's gonna win so actually I don't I don't actually hold any ponds anymore I had a little bit from really late to be honest but it more than doubled I sold a little bit and then I just decided to sell the rest of it yesterday because I was like I don't know what's gonna happen and if I don't know why would I hold this position that I'm so uncertain about so that that was my thinking morning to Hershey joining us as well in the chat uh ledge final thought on this kind of velocity of coins the the quantity of coins then maybe I'll share this uh thought on my pump trade which I want to just share like how it played out maybe club charm talk about it yeah too many too many coins agree with uh English and you that is why again if the the swing trading like intraday or overnight trades is what I

21:13like at the moment but I also would not really feel super comfortable with saying okay now this is ponds and I'm buying that for the medium term a medium term I mean a couple of weeks yeah might be a longer hold if you think that this is a longer season or might be a shorter term trade if you think we are rotating in or out of something but I feel like the now the medium term the couple of weeks horizon is the one which I uh dislike at the moment well you dislike it for the riskier's assets like but you know if you are able to take the swing trade I like yeah but it's a short exactly but that's the short term and I think the main difference maybe between the two of us is you park now the profits that you take an eith and in z cash and I'm very happy to park them in stables and then like you meet at the shift that into I want to buy apple like going my my barbell is super degenerate and super conservative yeah and I don't really care too much about

22:17like eith or where the stuff in the middle at the moment yeah to be honest eith for me is a holding one it's just like waiting till I decide uh what to do with it but yeah I'm definitely at this stage in the cycle I'm going into uh assets I like in a high proportion and then what I'll do and like look maybe this is like you know people talk about different innings are we in the first inning second innings eighth inning nine innings ledged you know this sporting reference you know how many innings there's supposed to be no four is the four what's that's that's quarters man four quarters obviously he's going to be four quarters in a match right yeah how many innings in a match and which sports what what's the port is it even I don't know is it football no to be fair it could be two sports could be cricket there are a couple of innings in cricket but no this is a baseball reference so it's nine innings as funky as coming in to give you that that context uh but look

23:19so look as I go through the innings say there's nine innings there's nine innings I've never heard anyone on crypto twitter say we are in the eighth or ninth it's always like the first the second or third so everyone on crypto always thinks we're super early if they're talking about innings yeah basically no sometimes people do say eight or ninth sometimes you know but most people say are we're in the first we're in the second um but look I think one of the reason it's helpful to think in nine is because it gives you more scale and so you can be a little so for me when I'm talking about right at the beginning I'm taking profits and maybe I'll keep 10% in stables and 90% in zcash in the it first innings then all right well where I think we are we're progressing a little bit right maybe it's 20% in stables 80% in zcash then maybe I'll in innings three I might be like right I want 20% in stables 10% in gold 70% in zcash and like you just have a bit more

24:19uh optionality to play with so and and and to be fair I don't do everything entirely just like the other day I took some profits and I bought half gold half zcash just because I felt like it and on that particular day um it felt like things were really frothy and people were doing ridiculous things and so well okay on this day in particular I'm feeling like people are being more ridiculous so I'm going to buy more gold today and so I just think you've got to have that optionality sometimes uh and play with so you know for example it worked very well for me in the sense that like look pre zcash pre 1000 I was putting everything into zcash now zcash is at 1,100 do I want to still do it maybe but you know this is my like it's a question now do I still go 100 in or do I do 2080 do I do 50 50 or something um english saying seventh or eighth inning for Robin Hood memes game hasn't started yet for the cyclist right so there's actually two matches

25:24going on one set of innings in the memes on Robin Hood and then you have a majors game we need to do some diagram here like all the matches taking place and which innings are um happening in the saying pre season for one of the matches um so look I think I think it's a helpful way to think about things and obviously where you place that should give you some indication as to how to allocate your risk and when you start piling on and when you start taking some off um personally just to put a conclusion on this before maybe we talk specific trade ideas and then we'll get to the main headlines today I you know the activity over the weekend couldn't be sustained I think we just have to cool off a little bit and honestly it's kind of scary you look at all this um P&L on FOMO people in multiple big coins being like loads and loads of people up seven figures

26:30um and you're like right you guys gonna hold you you guys gonna hold if we go into FOMC next week and Bitcoin starts just you know just uh edging lower because people are wondering if there's gonna be a rate hike you guys all gonna hold gonna hold through FOMC and a potential rate hike like I mean I don't think there's gonna be rate hikes but it doesn't matter what I think it depends what other people think and what the market thinks and what that what that starts doing to Bitcoin and then what that can start doing to the rest of the market you know what I mean yep um agree with that this is okay I think the the main difference in the and I think they both out trading styles have to come quite different and I think this is why I when I do like the shorter time frame trading the swings the like the the more aggressive memes I love to take profits into stables I don't want to think about like oh do I now go 80% in this 30% in that so for me it's

27:32like just give me stables don't care about these don't care about this for you when you have like less of your positions on and then you want to you you then build more momentum when you basically say okay I think now Zcash is an interesting more interesting hold for the cycle so I'm gonna scale a bit more into that or I scale I'm gonna scale a bit into gold and you put then more more thought and time into that but I would think that from the last cycle you're probably the one who view trades with larger size and then things more about like how do you want to exit those trades and I'm probably the one who has done more um trades across different assets and then for that reason because that is a ton of mental load prefer to exit all of them into into stables yeah I think that's that's roughly accurate right like in historically you press more buttons than me and so I can see why if you're if that's your trading style you want the simplicity on the back end yeah exactly whereas if I press fewer buttons I actually have some mental

28:37kapat like suddenly you talk about the mental load yeah I think that's probably accurate actually that's interesting interesting point but it shows you can do you can do these things in different ways um and both can work out work out well um and again I mean just to reiterate for people who are wondering like our crypto portfolios are now not our net worth which is good like maybe once upon a time everything that we had made was in crypto and you know over time we've addressed that because that's not smart it's not wise it doesn't need to be you don't need to put it all on the table so now when we're talking about these portfolios the crypto proportion and when I say okay all my profits are going to Zcash like it's okay because that's not all the money that I have in the world and it's not all things if that trade was to turn against me uh which it hasn't at the moment but okay interesting interesting chat um so look we do want to get into the headlines in a minute

29:43I just want to talk about this pump trade for a second lady you can pull that pump I just want to share some perspective on how I managed to get out of a trade and you know because you know I told you basically I've been running this purple count I shared in the chat the other day in the telegram chat I basically saw this 100k per per count at the start of the year and as I told everyone during the show lost 35k paid my tuition fee by shorting the market when I really 100% should not have been shorting the market so I like I learned a huge huge lesson and then I took about a month off this was around in May and I was like okay I'm going to figure this out and just like how to trade this back up I'm going to get this back and figure it figure it out from there so now I'm 10k up on the account so the the account is at back to 110k I think around a few weeks ago I had technically like

30:43made it all back from what I lost half of that gain took place before the market started sending so it was genuinely like trading perps remember we were talking equities we were shorting going long space X short space X long micron and all this stuff and then the second half of it was taking profits putting it in Zcash and like letting some of these crypto assets that have run do some of that work for you so it's been a good trading run on that account but I think the key learning that I kind of have figured out with perps in a way and I don't know if this is a perfect strategy by the way so you've got to be careful with it I feel like you always got to think on two levels so I entered a pump long at 5.2 before this pullback so that would have made if you look at if you zoom in on the chart a little bit like 5.2 5.2 bill pump which had already run from like one pump

31:478 I caught basically top did not quite I do have some spot from three something as well which I'm more children with but I entered a long 3x leverage at 5.2 but the way that I thought about it was like okay I always I always enter the leverage and I play around with the numbers first I'll check like 4x leverage I'll check 5x leverage I'll check 3x leverage and I'll check where my liquidation level is and then I ask myself the question on the second level like will I re-long this at that level it's I don't know if you'd call it a martingale strategy because I think you have to be cautious about martingaling stuff but like it does help you think through likelihoods and how likely things are going to happen because if pump went to 5.2 what's the likelihood it goes back to 3.7 or 3.8 which was where my liquidation level was and then if you were to long again at 3.8 and double down or like provide the afresh capital to

32:49prevent yourself getting liquidated what's your new liquidation so then you have to think okay well if I double down at that point what's what would my new liquidation be and would I am I feeling even more confident at that level that we're not going to go down there and again you might say there's 80% chance we'd go down to that second or third level of liquidation so it's like okay that's not a good trade or you might think no I'm super comfortable that if I'm happy to back up 3.8 and I I'm super convicted then I should be fine because it means that even if I draw down 5.2 to 3.8 like I'm happy like I would be happy and I'm a willing bidder at 3.8 to double or triple down my position and that's actually what happened so you'll see it went from 5.2 I saw this trade bleed for me for like maybe 10 days more than that I go and you can see on the chart here on one particular day it wicked down to what would have been my liquidation point but what I do is I place a bid

33:54just above my liquidation point for like double the size of the original position or maybe the same size or double the size or something like that and then you saw it recovered it went all the way back up to 4.6 and now my my cost basis instead of being a 5.2 because I bought again at 3.8 it was around 4.6 and so what happened was that yesterday it pumped up to around 4.6 4.5 and by the time I saw it it was at 4.5 and so I think I took that opportunity I was down like it wasn't a huge amount it was down like 6 grand or something or maybe lower but I never actually saw it at the price how much I was down when it was I was down like 6 grand when I when I was looking at it maybe I was down more but I doubled down because the bid took to carry it and then when I saw it back at 4.5 4.6 and that was my new adjusted cost basis I was like look this has been a world ride am I quite bullish on pump yeah kind of but I've been through a lot in this trade my

35:02my PNL on that account in this month is around 30k and this would be $700 loss right now if I can get out of this at 0.45 instead of 0.46 which was my new cost basis so I was like I'm just going to eat it I like what an unbelievable win and I we've spoken about this before led right where we talk about taking sometimes I feel like I'm actually quite good at this I'm really good at taking small losses to prevent like humongous losses and I feel like that's part of the game and I just wanted to share that for some perspective people because it's something I've been figuring out how to do perps well what you have to be willing to do to be able to eat some of the volatility and manage your risk and then also just be like look I lost $700 but like that is a win for me on that trade because of maybe look maybe it wasn't a great smart move to go in at 0.52 but the point is an out with barely any scars in an account that is big up on the me let's just protect the capital

36:04here now and we'll wait for a second and see what goes next so what do you I just want to share that ledger I'm curious who you're what your thoughts are on that then go to the comments as well going break even so this should be without yet going break even are only having a small loss in a trade like that is actually a huge win because not only on the perps set like no matter no matter what type of trade you do if it goes against you and you find the way to then double down recover and now if you want to get out get out break even or just be done a couple hundred bucks which relative to trading system really matter is a massive massive win and I think that's an important skill set also have on the on the meme set of things I had talking about laptop I had a similar trade with a laptop Robinhood on yesterday were saw it way too late at the mill um ape and then it crashed and was like

37:05yeah it's probably gonna run back up if they're gonna extend the new cycle and accept it double down on that at 500k and sold once it went back up and I was break even could have sold higher did go to three mill then crash but I'm like I don't care like I have a loss in my book because I ate in today managed to turn the round and I'm super happy to walk away with a with a break even there obviously there was a smaller trading size because it was a small coin that principle applies to bigger trades um as well it's extremely relevant that you might have a thesis you might like to go see go see pump go up but that trade might go against you and then you should have a strategy what you're gonna do in your strategy what against gonna down your hypothesis is still the same so you're gonna double down and just get your average lower or if you don't have the conviction you get out and also cut the loss but just waiting to be liquidated or sitting in a spot trade and don't do anything as um the trade goes against you is not the best strategy and especially not so if you're

38:11trading perps so I think it's a huge one if you walk away with a small loss of break even on a trade like that yeah I think so I think people got to understand like in this kind of market you might make big wins but you might take huge losses as well and if you can minimize the big losses and I'm not that I've done it perfectly because I've taken like Mansa for example I'm trading terribly like I'm down big on Mansa and there you know but the game is is about making wins but also minimizing losses and I don't think people talk about that side enough if you take a loss turn it into like a mid you just you just get out break even that is a win that is a win it means that your PNL is significantly higher because you know that that loss or that impending loss with is eating into your PNL so in a very very significant way um English coming in here saying I always trade around mental I always trade around mental load as my primary or near top

39:17priority people don't talk about that enough how stressed you are with the trade with what's kind of going on in your life like exactly like I think you've got you've got to take these things into account it's also a relative to what's going on in the rest of your your account right like my account was doing awesome and this one trade was like eating into the PNL in a really disgusting way the market gave me a chance to get out of it cut and figure it out after and I took that opportunity and now I mean it's hardly zoomed higher I mean maybe it will but it's not doing that at the moment uh English coming in ZeeChick is my third favorite public trade at there we go that's why that's why we like English that's why I put up with all your abuse English um when you're gonna talk like that sometimes uh morning to sunny sunny delights joining us as well uh for today in the chat right look we we have taken a while because we want to talk around it was a long weekend and a lot happened so we've talked a lot around trading some things that are going on in our portfolios let's touch on the different bits of news that we think are important to get to you

40:22today because as much as you just want to talk coins and look it's just going to go up or down if you're only talking coins and only talking up or down you're just basically playing slots um there are real reasons why this market is moving in the way they are and we want to keep touching on them to make sure you're best prepared that those are the data points we're looking at and to make our decision so I think uh that's what you should be as well um Lege first headline today is um first headline today is the yen hitting the strongest level soon it's February right so we had this yen intervention already yen is continuing to get stronger what do we need to know here uh about the yen because this yen intervention definitely was you know stage one of kicking off this deep belief in the continued devaluation of the dollar so what do we need to know here yeah we had um a government intervention in in early august as you just said uh the yen has extended its gains further on monday and um

41:27also on a Tuesday um monday alone up another 1.4 percent and what we are expecting right now is to see the bank of japan doing a rate hike i think it's trading at a 98% probability on fully market right now see a rate hike and that is also following some public pressure from uh your strategy secretary from from professor uh for the biogay to raise interest rates so that is um almost priced in it gets interesting and a bit more fuzzy if we look into um October because uh let's get the poly market up for that on screen initially it seemed extremely unlikely that we are going to see um back to back rate hikes in japan so we have the september market which is essentially trading for September 18th at a 98% probability to see the increase however the october market which is

42:32October 30th sees only at 20% chance to see another rate hike which would then mean uh two back to back rate hikes uh and an 80% chance that nothing is going to change on the more if you want to call institutional set of things you have a good amount of analysts from banks who are making it almost uh making it the base case that they will see um two rate hikes if you think that there's going to be the back to back uh rate hikes has been also additional rumors if there's not going to if there wasn't another intervention um in in in propping up the yen as well and i think this is one of the things that we have discussed when we covered that news for the first time back in early august that the precedent that the u.s. said by doing this intervention last time one of these interventions happened was a decade or a bit more than a decade um ago it almost sets an expectation that they are going to do it again that they're going to step in that you will have people like

43:36scot bison putting pressure on the bank of japan to hike rate so that they are extending their influence on the on the japanese market which is still housing the the global carry trade and we are seeing that um playing out right now that is um the one the one bit of the news um and basically connected to that you also see um the back of japan dumping japanese bonds at the face fastest face in history was also um covered via bar chart so keep taking away from here for me here is that um i think we cannot only like look at what the fmc is doing obviously and if there's going to be a rate hike or not in the u.s. because now the US government is interfering quite significantly with what's the japanese market as well that is one to track as well that is one that's going to influence um the market sentiment um in the u.s. and globally as well because the

44:42character rate has only grown bigger and bigger and if that is a sustainable recovery of the yen if the yen is going to be more expensive and that euro of cheap yen borrowing is to come to an end then that could trigger a sell-off so it's something that we will uh definitely report on more freaking g. on the show as well um okay well it does feel like we're just going to get we're going to be in a kind of this interventionist period whether that's with the yen or whether it's with the um uh treasury buybacks the thing the reason why i think the market's kind of taking a pause here and it's important to place this in contact so these two things are the things driving the risk market the fact that we intervened in the yen sorry the us intervened in the end that's not a wee i'm not American um uh the us intervened in the yen um and we decided buyback treasuries

45:45these two things kicked off the risk again but we are now on pause to see what uh Kevin Walsh will do at the next FOMC will he hike rates or not he's talked a big game about wanting to commit to the two percent inflation targets however he then doesn't do anything he doesn't do anything and then if you listen to the rest of what he says it doesn't appear to me to be serious about uh hiking rates now i think that's why the market's basically on pause here they want to see they've seen the intervention they get that that's inflationary um and that's why you've sealed gold move higher off the bottom from like four four point one K to four point four so like a full almost 10 percent move you know eight to 10 percent move one gold um and so you know people are realizing right okay it's gonna come and they just want to know if he's gonna

46:49raise rates to to counter some of that or not and i think if he doesn't then we can go do the next leg higher and if he does then maybe we have to work through the implications of that because I think although polymarket says it's a coin flip i think the market is basically just waiting to know what he's gonna do that's that's my read and it might make people i i just super believe in the macro at the moment like this is very macro driven um very debatement trade vibe it's like look what do you guys gonna do as a government are you gonna be responsible if not we're gonna send risk us entire if you are then we're gonna send risk us as low um if you are gonna be responsible and we already saw how people reacted to trying to be more responsible they started burning elons um test of not factories or the shops or whatever so um so yeah and you know on some level even

47:54the even if the democrats do win in the midterms you've got a layer in that political layer into it even if they do win they're not gonna be anymore um physically responsible so but to me i only see this going in one direction it but it does depend on what uh warshtas that's my that's my near near term catalyst what do you think on that ledge? yes and the fact that polymarket has a coin flip from using more singling of the market has no idea do you want to share do you want to share it on the polymarket? yeah it has no idea what's going on and it's so interesting if you look at it going back from july how often the sentiment has flipped and that either was the dominant thought there's not gonna be a change or that it was the thought there is gonna be a rate hike then there was again um a large period in august where like 75% chance that there's not gonna be a change um then again hike is more probable then again no change is more probable now we're essentially trading at a coin flip so market does not have a clue it's wait and

48:58see what will what will happen yeah i just can't see us going into a hiking cycle it's not gonna happen guys that's my that was my view before still my view now um i don't see it ee could you do one i don't i don't really understand like why would you do one and then what they have to cut after and then start holding i don't know i think what's gonna happen i've said things gonna happen loads anyway let's just answer this question uh over rock which way would you put your money gents think no change is give value of course like that's my that's my that's my balance why i'm holding way more risk assets at the moment i think that there will be no change but i think what he'll do i think there'll be no change but he'll signal all right well maybe it's gonna be in december and therefore because the market's forward looking it's gonna be like oh well we can't like go completely risk on now because maybe he's gonna do it in December you just keep saying well no no change for now we're gonna keep looking at the data and then in december

50:04we'll really really see if we have to do x, y, or z and market's forward looking so what happens on the day is kind of maybe irrelevant it's just what's he gonna say for december if it isn't gonna be one right away so there's just different ways they can the the theme of this administration is gonna talk you try to talk your way out of stuff try and talk your way out of the wall with a run don't worry guys it doesn't matter if we have no oil anymore like the walls over oh no the walls not over we're gonna destroy the civilization oh no it's fine it's like like it's just nonsensical but this is the way i think it's playing out interesting doblee to maybe taking the other side thinking that they are gonna hike that'd be a surprise to me even though it is 50-50 over archers i like the polymarket players you can take profit before fmc or cart 23% yeah i think that's that's correct as well right now you can do your coin flip now and if you see it going

51:05your way or not you don't need to win to you don't have to hold it through to your 100% you can just call it at some point so all factors to consider look we are running over time today it's been a good show getting into some pretty specific things about our ideas on positioning and trading let's hit the final two headlines just quickly so that we just have a holistic idea of what's going on the second headline today is this news that hunter Biden plans to launch memecoin laptop on basis and news that was your journal reported on monday that hunter Biden is part of the founding team behind laptop and memecoin deploying on base today with a 1 billion to supply you confirmed it on the x4 minutes later with the ticker and within an hour at least 14 copycat laptop tokens appeared on four other networks and traded six point nine million dollars between them it's obviously significant because it is the son of the former us president i'm pretty sure i

52:09read some interesting quirks to it whereas like he's going to give x percent of the token to people who lost the money on the donald trump coin also people providing some contact saying he has he's like 15 million dollars in debt and is this a way for him to make the money back i don't really know what's going on in general the general take on this and the timeline is that this is this is incredibly extract like this is just a huge extraction event i think at least in part this is why lots of people sold off crypto yesterday because they don't want to have to hold when this token comes out and everyone's going to try and speculate on it which means they need to sell something in order to buy this one so that's why i think a lot of people were selling off assets yesterday because they need to make space people don't have infinite capital we're already saying today there are too many coins too many tokens if someone super famous comes out with one people are going to need to sell stuff in order to buy new stuff it can't support all of these valuations

53:09endlessly and all of this new supply so i think those are the things to keep in mind and we'll have to see whether this comes out and what happens i don't think i'm going to trade it i feel like it'll probably count already high i've got i'm kind of optimistic that people won't it won't last very long like i don't think it's going to be a trump thing well for five days is going to be the thing that takes over the whole world and people make you know tens and tens of millions of dollars i don't think i think we've seen it too many times now so let's see let's see what do you think bludgeon yeah plus there's a massive difference between the sitting president of the US launching a coin and the son of the former president so yeah exactly frank put it well he said uh this coin is going to be an IQ test uh english said trump coin worked because it was anticipated just like

54:12air jobs market doesn't like when it's announced and pre planned i'm bearish on it i think he meant meant to say trump worked because it was not anticipated i think that's right it was kind of a surprise like is it this is it that and then it just and now people have managed to form a sentiment that no we don't like this coin we've discussed it no one likes it a bit of stigma probably to trading it although i guess a lot of crypto traders won't care about that um yeah i'm not super excited but i'm trying to try to ignore it i think it's unless you're like sitting there right on the on the minute ready to buy it i don't think it's going to be it's not going to be um yeah i think a lot of people just lose money on it to be honest and then we just go back to doing what we were doing before um but i do think these other things are selling off so if anything what you would do is you would ignore that by the assets that you like that might be on a dip because of that then when people realize uh we're not interested in laptop they'll come back to those assets which they like before so that would be the play i think if there's an asset that's down the lot today yeah i like about

55:18all right final headline ledge what do you need to know i'm gonna keep it super short here we have oil we have crude uh being up trading above $94 there's two things going on at the same time one is probably the expected thing unfortunately which is the further escalation in Iran and Trump's blockade um the the economic blockade that is the aggressive pressure campaign that he's putting around under is also um leading to military response by Iran all of this putting pressure on oil that is nothing new the more interesting thing um the one that the more interesting for the reason that we haven't talked about it that much is what China is doing in China is um buying oils is buying oil sorry the crude oil imports are now up for the second consecutive month they did import in august alone almost 38 million tons of oil that is up another 6.2% from july

56:23which is a massive recovery from the decade low that we have seen back in june it's still down versus the levels that we've seen the year before but i think that is quite obvious because oil is now not as easy to import with the situation with the war going on in Iran but it's definitely Chinese buying pressure that is coming into the crude oil market and it's also pushing oil prices higher at the moment so interestingly we'll just close on this trade idea well fail trade idea um i had an oil short yesterday and i shared it in the telegrams and i look i'm sure oil i think what's going to happen is um before wash does his thing next week you know that everyone's concerned about inflation you have to hike because inflation is a problem oil is high oil is one of the biggest contributors to high inflation i think i thought they were going to announce that another piece right it's over they've obviously been quite hostile with

57:25Iran recently there's been hostilities between Iran and the u.s again i thought what was going to happen is they're going to continue those facilities and then say just before that like look we've come to another agreement we're back at the negotiating table oil always goes down like 10% on those kind of things now obviously oil is not a market we specialize in and there's so many complicated factors and maybe i think i oversimplified it and then i read this stuff about like maybe China buying more after they had stopped buying a little bit for a while and so i look this market is too complicated for me i still like my idea but i had infected in china coming back to the market and you know pumping it for whatever reason and i just thought look i don't need to be in this short so i closed the short i still think it could happen next week because they do like to with oil in particular it's one of the things they can manipulate the most out of everything by just saying right we're doing the negotiations now right we're going to attack Iran now we're going to

58:26you know so they can manipulate oil very very much um but maybe i'm more in the camp now like look i'm not i don't have to guess which way they're manipulating it on a different day that i wake up so i'm just going to back out of that um there's a few hundred dollar loss and then i'm just going to live with it i don't want to take a specific position there um any thoughts from you on oil ledge or gold because we saw China buying a lot more gold as well so China buying oil China buying gold any final thoughts gold i leg as long-term trade i'm still holding oil similar to you not interested in the trade and it can only what you're holding oil no gold gold you just you just said oh oh i'm holding gold sorry oil i'm not interested in the trade gold i like to hold and for your oil trade it can only like repeat what is that said before same vein as your pump trade if the trade goes against you and your trading especially on perps

59:27that a small loss ultimately is a is a win in your book because it's not diminishing the rest of your profits too much yeah i think with perps you that that's how i found you just got to be super careful and you've got to be really on top of it um got to really manage the the book um doubly to saying states get the Canadian oil at $77 a barrel by the way still or they're going to get a 50 didn't tariff put on that in this new kind of trade or i don't know what's going on there um yeah let's see curious how the trade war goes likewise likewise all right guys great show that was enjoyable today talked a lot in terms of strategy a lot of talk in terms of portfolio a lot of terms of trading accounts and how to manage um the situation i think we're doing a pretty good job at the moment not doing everything perfectly obviously in a high risk on the environment it's hard to do everything right um but we are sharing a lot we're thinking through

1:00:28this stuff as much as we can and i hope you found it helpful as always we got more to announce very very soon on the telegram obviously got people going insane in there sharing all kinds of stuff really really enjoying the community chat in there and how electric it has been the last month or two we have some more updates to give on that uh very very shortly so hope you enjoyed guys we're back same time same place tomorrow have a wonderful day take care see you then bye bye