On the Iranian Border, More Military on the Way, Warm Western Winter

The Iran War enters its fourth week with more US troops being dispatched to the region.

At least two US Marine units are on their way.

Their mission is as yet unclear.

I'm Scott Simon.

I'm Aisha Roscoe and this is up first from NPR News.

The war in Iran has disrupted the world's oil supply, a crisis that's growing by the

day.

3,000 oil tankers, gas tankers, and cargo ships are stranded in the Persian Gulf,

unwilling to cross the Strait of Hormuz.

And a dry winter in the American West points toward a smoky summer.

Without a good snowpack in the Rocky Mountains, river basins are low all the way to California.

So please stay with us.

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First up today, the latest on the fighting in Iran.

There were heavy airstrikes overnight, even as President Trump says that he's considering

in his words, winding the operations in Iran down.

If you're as Emily Fang is on the Turkish border with Iran and joins us now, Emily

thanks for being with us.

It's great to be with you, Scott.

Twenty second day of this war, tell us what Iranian's remediate there at the border

have been telling you about what they've been going through.

So we met dozens of these people yesterday.

And this border is beautiful, Scott.

There are snowy mountains, there are blue lakes.

But the Iranians we were meeting there fleeing war had come with terrible stories, like

this man who we talked to just minutes after he crossed.

And like everyone we spoke with, he didn't want to give his name.

He's planning to go back to Iran where he's afraid of being arrested for speaking with

foreign media.

He told us he stands shoulder to shoulder with Israel and the US in attacking Iran's government.

But people, including him, have said he's accepted he might die as well from this bombing.

And when he said that to me, he paused, Scott, he almost couldn't believe what he was

saying out loud because like so many Iranians we met, he feels really torn.

There are people who are against the bombing and we met some of these Iranians yesterday.

But many Iranians tell us that while it is anguishing for them to see innocent civilians

killed, it is even more anguishing for them to live under the current regime.

We have noted that Israel has succeeded in killing several of Iran's most senior officials

this week, including its security chief.

No well of those attacks been its parents' civilians.

So the problem is there is a near total communications blackout in Iran.

We've been able to speak to some Iranians in and out of the country.

They tell us they're experiencing total uncertainty and thus fear about where these

strikes are going to fall.

Human rights groups have counted a range of civilian deaths.

On the lower end, around 600 civilians killed to over 1,300 civilians killed, according

to another estimate.

That's closer to the more recent deaths told reported by the Iranian regressant.

But these updates are really sporadic and so it's challenging Scott to know the full scale

of civilian deaths in Iran.

And what do Iranians tell you about their day-to-day lives?

People and this might be surprising to listeners, people are still trying to live life as normal.

But the country is heavily securitized.

Five Iranians we spoke to this week said there were a ton of new checkpoints run by the

besieged paramilitary group in Iran.

Israel says it is striking dozens of these new checkpoints.

But those strikes, they're killing security officials, they're also killing civilians.

So I spoke to this Iranian man.

He told us his 26-year-old cousin was among civilians killed.

This man himself had just left Iran about a week before for Turkey where I am and he

showed me these oil stains on his jacket which he said were from fallout when Israel

struck a Ryan oil depot in early March that then sent flaming oil droplets in the air.

And he says his cousin who died had risked his life protesting against the government

in Iran in January.

He himself wants this government to fall, but he acknowledges the cost is so painfully

high.

And so you see these really painful choices that Iranians are grappling with, including

the question of whether this war is going to be worth the many, many deaths of people

they love around them.

Ben Piers Emily Fang, thanks so much for being with us.

Thanks Scott.

President Trump and his team say the war in Iran is going very well.

In fact, they often say the military campaign is ahead of schedule.

But the US hasn't reached the many goals they've declared and there is no sign when the

war might end.

We're joined by NPR National Security Correspondent Greg Meiery, Greg.

Thanks for being with us.

Hi Scott.

Today marks three weeks since the war began.

Where do things stand on the battlefield?

So big picture, the US and Israel dominate the skies over Iran, they're really bombing

it will.

Iranian missiles and drone strikes are down 90% from the early days of war.

And this is all according to the Pentagon.

Now the Pentagon also announced the US is using Apache helicopters and ATIN Wardhog planes

to carry out attacks now.

This is interesting on a couple points.

First, these are slow moving, low flying aircraft that often loiter over a battle site.

They're very lethal.

But they're vulnerable to being hit.

So this move suggests that the US believes the threat from the Iranian forces on the ground

has been reduced to the point where these aircraft can be brought into the fight.

And then I think the second point is the Pentagon said they're doing things, these planes

are doing things like targeting the small fast boats that Iran uses in the Gulf.

So we're seeing this greater emphasis on the Gulf and on the smaller, more elusive

Iranian weapons.

We should really expect this to continue.

Greg, we've seen reports that the US might and what emphasized might be moving closer

to using ground troops in some kind of operation.

What do we know?

Yeah, well, President Trump addressed these reports and he said, quote, no, I'm not putting

troops anywhere.

If I were, I certainly wouldn't tell you, but I'm not putting troops anywhere.

So this sounds like a no with an option to change his mind.

Now NPR has confirmed with US officials that two marine expeditionary units are making

their way to the region.

We don't know what their mission is, but it's certainly generating a lot of speculation.

And of course, one possibility would be an operation intended to open the Strait of

Hormuz.

Of course, that's the critical choke point for oil in the Gulf that Iran has effectively

shut down.

And which has caused an oil crisis that seems to be growing by the day.

What might it take to reopen the Strait of Hormuz?

Yeah, it's not going to be easy.

This was a problem that didn't exist when the war began and Trump hasn't laid out

a clear plan to fix it.

Iran has lost most of its conventional military power, but it's still very well positioned

to carry out attacks from the rugged coastline with drones or with these fastboats in the

Gulf.

And particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, which is just 21 miles wide, the Gulf has

really become a giant parking lot for ships.

There's some 3,000 oil tankers, gas tankers, cargo ships, all stranded according to the

UN's shipping agency.

These ships are unwilling to challenge the Iranians.

And the US Navy only has around 20 ships in the region.

And of course, President Trump was rebuffed when he called on other nations to help.

Then he said the US didn't need any help, but what's the latest?

Yes, got.

There's been a lot of back and forth.

And now a half dozen European and Asian nations have issued a joint statement saying they'll

contribute to appropriate efforts to open the Gulf.

But that's pretty vague and no one is pledging anything tangible like a warship.

I spoke about the Gulf with Daniel Jurgen.

He's a long time expert on the oil industry who's now at S&P Global.

This is by far the biggest disruption of world oil that's ever occurred.

This really hit Asia because essentially from an economic terms, the Strait of Hormuz

points east, 80% of the oil goes to Asia, 90% of the natural gas.

And for countries like Japan and South Korea and even China as well as India, this is a

very big slam to their economies.

So the Asian countries could be looking at oil shortages.

Now that shouldn't happen here in the US because this country is the world's largest

oil producer, but oil is a global commodity so the prices rise for everyone.

And of course, Greg Iran has lost many top leaders.

Is the government and the military still functioning?

Well, the short answer is yes.

We heard this week from the US director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard.

She testified before both the Senate and the House.

And she said the Iranian government has been badly degraded, but it's still intact.

She said the country's new supreme leader, Moshtubah Hamanay was badly injured in the

Strait that killed his father, the previous supreme leader.

Israel says it's killed dozens of political and military leaders and keeps announcing more

almost daily.

But Iran's government is very much a system with lots of layers and power centers.

It's not based on an individual.

So it seems the government is still functioning and the military is definitely carrying out

attacks.

It compares Greg Myrie, thanks so much.

Sure things, Scott.

It's now officially spring.

The Vernal Equinox was yesterday.

And for people in the American West, it marked the end of a winter that wasn't.

States from Colorado to Oregon report their driest and warmest winter on record, and that

has potentially dire consequences for the region's water reserves.

MPR's Western Correspondent Kirk Siggler is in Boise and joins us now.

Thanks for being with us.

Good morning.

Glad to be here.

So just how hot was this winter in the West?

Well, it was really the winter that wasn't for skiers.

We call it low tide.

There's barely any snow and when we did get storms, they tended to be really warm.

So rain at very high altitudes, not good for skiing, but more to the point of why you

guys called me up.

It's horrible for the snowpack and storing water in this region.

And snow is the main water supply in the West, right?

Exactly.

We rely on a healthy snowpack to slowly melt into our huge reservoirs where it's stored

to get us through the dry summers.

And up until this weekend, the West has also been dealing with a heat dome and some

have recorded their earliest ever triple-digit temperatures.

In the mountains, that's causing rapid snow melt.

So Kirk, is there even that much snow left to melt at this point after such a dry winter?

That's a good question.

I mean, you look at photos of the mountains around Lake Tahoe right now and it's kind of

like back to where they were right around Christmas, Brown Hillsides.

Here in Boise, I'm looking at the mountains behind the studio here and they don't look

much better.

The local scary, a bogus basin is closing the same with snow basin in Utah and Sierra

at Tahoe.

I mean, this is weeks early.

And the news isn't much better when you look at the rivers.

According to the U.S. drought monitor, every single river basin in the West has experienced

its warmest or second warmest winter on record.

Now some of coastal California was a bit of a bright spot.

They did get a lot of rain in this winter, which I asked Brent Pasqua about.

He's a Cal Fire battalion chief and he pointed out that the irony is that with all that

rain, it gets lush and green and it turns to brittle in prolonged heat.

We are definitely experiencing a heat wave, which we're used to.

We're just not used to it this early in the year.

The forecast all the way till June shows very little moisture.

So that's concerning.

Is there any hope that things could turn around or is it too late and we're likely headed

toward a smoky summer?

I mean, maybe, but like I usually like everything in the world right now, everything feels

unpredictable.

I mean, climate scientists have started blaming this past warm winter out here on the rapidly

melting Arctic, which is causing the jet stream to swing away from us.

And then there's this huge blob of warm water out in the Pacific that's sending us these

warm storms, at least when we get them.

Now there are some exceptions, of course, in the West, but everyone is really worried about

the Colorado River basin.

The Federal Bureau of Reclamation is now predicting that the water levels in Lake Powell and Lake

Mead along the river may drop so low that the turbines that the dams are going to stop

even being able to produce power like later this year.

It's called Deadpool.

It's a very grim term, but apt.

Oh my goodness.

So I mean, all of this has extraordinary environmental consequences, but that sounds like it's also

going to have some big economic consequences.

Totally.

I mean, the Colorado River alone supplies drinking water to like 40 million people, also countless

farms that grow all the produce we eat, especially in the winter and the Imperial Valley of

California.

And up here where I am in the Pacific Northwest, we get a lot of our power from Hydro and

so low river flows are very concerning along the Columbia River.

But I think the possibility of a smoky summer is pretty tops on everyone's minds.

I was on a reporting trip up in Montana this past week and I met Andy Leedberg, who owns

a brewery next to the Big Skies ski resort.

It's been a tough winter for the ski industry and Leedberg told me they're facing some tough

economic headwinds now going into spring.

Like low rivers mean not much whitewater rafting or fishing and the likelihood of a lot

of wildfire smoke.

If you look at everything, even gas prices this summer, you know, if gas prices don't come

down, people aren't driving around, you know, and it's like we need like that that traffic

of like people coming in and out of West Yellowstone or just coming here for vacation.

And if it's too expensive, then there's less travel.

So Aisha, the winter that wasn't as we're all calling it out here is now causing a lot

of concerns for what's coming ahead in spring and summer.

That's NPR's Kirk Siggler and Boise, thank you so much for joining us.

You're welcome.

And that's up first for Saturday, March 21st, 2026, I'm Scott Simon.

And I'm Aisha Roscoe, Elena Twerk, produced today's podcast with help from Michael Radcliffe

and Dave Mistage.

Ed McNulty was our editor today with Fernando Naro, Hannah Block, Andrew Sussman and Eric

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During the studio is our director Andy Craig and our technical director David Greenberg

and he had engineering support from J.S. Simon Jansson and Zove Anganova.

Shannon Rhodes is our senior supervising editor.

Our executive producer is E.B. Stone.

Jim Cain is our deputy managing editor.

And tomorrow on the Sunday story, how a push to remove trans troops is affecting active

duty service members and mission readiness.

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