On the Plane of Delusion: Faith over Fact (12/30/24)

The current trendy conspiracy theory is that a series of airplane incidents and accidents, from Kazakistan and South Korea to Canada, are part of some either unspecified conspiracy or the result of Deep State assassinations, DEI programs, or, according to the mainstream media, Putin. Many are saying, even before official explanations are given, that something doesn’t add up. But how can that be when there isn’t an explanation given. There are many problems here: lack of trust in the media or government results in paranoia, justified or not; when attention is brought to a subject it becomes the focal point of debate; a total lack of context to statistical data pertaining to things like aviation incidents. Sure, high profile reports from Japan to the U.S. make the public think airplanes are less safe, whatever the reason, but the all accident rate in 2023 was 0.80 per 1.26 million flights, an all around improvement from 2022 when the number was 1.30, and the five year rolling average of 1.19. The fatality risk has also improved to 0.03 in 2023 from 0.11 over the previous five years. The overall trend in plane safety parallels an even greater increase in safety within the U.S., while globally airline departure accident rates have plummeted from 2.94 per million in 2019 to 1.87 in 2023. Everything is much safer even if certain statistics increase. But what is the context of those increases. No, the sky is not falling. Yet conspiracy-land puts faith in conspiracy over fact, just as others put feelings over fact. 

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