One Month of War -- Is Victory Possible, What Does it Look Like? | Yaron Brook Show

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Oh, hey, everybody. Welcome to your own book show on this Friday. It's Friday already.

It's March 27th. We are indeed at the end of March, the very last weekend of March. And

it is about a month, tomorrow, before weeks. From the start of the war, I thought I

would do a show kind of in review. Where are we in the war? What is the situation? Is

victory possible? Is it deal possible? What is going on? What is going on? What is going

on with the war four weeks end? Is it success? Failure? All of that stuff. It continues

to be negative news constantly with no stop. Clearly, the Iranians are winning the propaganda

war. And I think the main reason for that is that so many Americans are eager to help

them out. So many Americans and Westerners more broadly are eager to help out the Iranians

in winning the propaganda war. Anyway, let's talk about the war itself. The war started

four weeks ago with the decapitation, the killing of the entire Iranian leadership from

Hamini down, including the leader of the IRGC and many of their advisors, subordinates,

everybody around us, and probably the injuring of Hamini's son, who has now been appointed

Supreme Leader and is supposedly somewhere a Supreme Leader. It started with that. And

of course, an attack on the infrastructure of Iranian ballistic missile launching and

their missiles within three days, the number of missiles declined dramatically. But to

somewhat surprise, the Iranians are managing to get off a steady barrage of missiles and

drones every day. Small quantities at a time, but significant. So one at a time, but significant

numbers. So more harassment than anything else. Once in a while, missiles get through as they did

in southern Israel a few days ago and they are real casualties. But most of the missiles are just

to harass and disrupt. The same is true. Missiles launched and drones launched at the UAE,

at Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait. Most of them are shut down. Most of them do not have a

much of an impact. But it's a constant. They're constantly being shot and that is harassing and

disorienting and distracting and difficult for the various countries and the militaries.

And they're citizens. They're civilian citizens to deal with.

So that happened within three days. Since then, it's been a steady, steady flow. We've got about

30 missiles a day going out. Maybe double that. Number of drones going out. Drones are not

hitting Israel. They're hitting mainly the Gulf States. As I've told you, drones takes them a

long time to get to Israel. They're not very effective. Qizballah has joined the war. It's

cited with the Iranians and started attacking Israel. Since then, Israel has pounded the Qizballah,

has destroyed many, many, many of their facilities in West Beirut. Many of high-rise buildings have

been knocked to the ground. They're about a million people who are homeless right now in Lebanon,

including most of the population of southern Lebanon, south of the Lytani River. And the

population of certain neighborhoods in Beirut, which were deemed Qizballah neighborhoods, they were

told to evacuate. And so they're over a million Lebanese that are homeless right now. And

are likely to be homeless for a long time because Israel is not going to allow them back into southern

Lebanon. They're going to occupy it until there's a viable solution, a viable Lebanese army that

is actually willing to confront Qizballah. They hasn't been today. It's been decades I wouldn't

assume they would be one in the future. Israel, it's also true that Israel will continue to take out

and fight with Qizballah north of Lytani. So this is not going to end anytime soon.

It is so far, casualty-wise. There have been casualties in the Israeli side, all civilians,

100% civilians, but relatively few, two to three dozen at the most. A lot of injured.

But again, we're talking about in the 100 to 200, well, nothing catastrophic,

nothing close to October 7th, nothing close to any previous events. No Israeli planes have

been shot down. No Israeli military facilities have been hit. No Israeli major industrial facilities

being hit, basically, all the hits that have caused damage of any substance, of any significance,

of any significance have all happened, have all been basically happening in residential areas.

The United States has taken very little damage again. Plains, again, downed only by Fendi Fire,

but so they haven't been really planes down by the Iranians. No ships have been really destroyed.

I mean, this is an unbelievably once-sided campaign. The United States and Israel can do whatever

they want in Iran. They can destroy anything they want in Iran. The only thing keeping any building

in Iran, up any industry in Iran, any facility in Iran, up is the unwillingness of the Americans

in these release to hit it. With one exception, the one exception is the very, very deep

bunkers, what do you call it, storage facilities that are deep, deep, deep inside mountains,

that even the big, bunker-busting bombs, the 35,000-pound bombs cannot reach. That is the only

thing in Iran that is outside of the range of the ability of the Israelis and the Americans to

destroy. But even there, we'll see, by the end of the war, what happens. Again, if there are boots

in the ground, I wonder if there were going to be any boots in the ground to try to destroy.

Those tunnels, how to tell. I wonder where they don't try to fly a drone into the tunnel

and kind of shoot it from within. I guess they don't have the capability to do that,

but it strikes me that that is the way to do it. It's hard to get a cruise missile through the

mountains and into the tunnel itself, but why not drones? I don't know.

We'll see what we've done in the future. In the meantime, Deus is also fighting the

Iranian-affiliated, affiliate militias, terrorist organizations in Iraq. So this is the equivalent

of Qizballah, but in Iraq. The Hottag, the Hottag, the 810 is active in the Iraqi, in the Iraqi

arena. It is mowing them down. Huge numbers of these Iraqi militias are being mowed down by the

810, particularly in the west of Iran, yes, in the west of Iran, close to Syrian and Jordanian

borders, but also inside Iran, and there have been battles even inside Baghdad itself.

The leadership of these militias has been decimated. Just like the Iranian leadership,

they still think they can meet and have strategic planning sessions, or maybe it's

D.I. required that they want to know on me to have harassment training. I don't know. But when they

do meet, out of nowhere, bomb appears and blows them all up, and that has happened in western Iraq

to the leadership of that militia. So at every front militarily, these Israelis and the

Americans are winning hands down. It's not even close. It's also the casualties in terms of the

damage, in terms of the suffering. There is no comparison. And today...

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with your wallet, your career choices, and meetings with your colleagues and at dinner parties,

listen to Big Technology podcast wherever you get your podcasts. These Israelis, in a sense,

took it up a notch, and today Israel hits strategic assets of the Iranians. They hit the

hard water nuclear facility in Iraq that the Iranians have. Now, this is not a facility that is built

to produce plutonium for nuclear weapons. That is not the path the Iranians have chosen to go.

They've chosen to go uranium and rich uranium. But they have been building this facility. It was

hit in the June war, and they were rebuilding it, and Israel hit it again today in addition.

Israel destroyed a facility that was producing uranium from what's called yellow cake, I guess,

from mining uranium out of yellow cake uranium that would then be used for enrichment.

Here, I guess there was some danger of potential for radiation. So far, there is none, but Israel

hit that plant and supposedly destroyed it today. As far as I know, this is the first time Israel's

hit that particular plant. So they're going through and dismantling the entire supply chain,

nuclear supply chain that the Iranians have. Point by point, area by area. But in addition,

Israel today bombed all at once, all at once, three of the biggest steel making plants

in Iran. They basically devastated the steel industry in Iran. This is steel that is used to

make ballistic missiles. But more importantly, it is steel that's used in the

economy, in the Iranian economy, and thus is it a huge hit for the Iranian economy. Now,

the Iranians have taken this as a personal affront. Really, they've taken this as a violation of

Trump's promise not to strike their energy infrastructure. Until April 6th, remember, he gave them

a 10 additional days yesterday, kind of randomly, because he's negotiating with somebody

somewhere, somehow. And he gave them an extra 10 days because they gave him some gift,

which they denied, they've given him, which is the passage of three ships, other homostrates.

But they've denied it. They denied the negotiating. But Trump is generous. So he postponed any

attacks on energy infrastructure until April 6th. The Iranians are saying now that this

the attack on the steel industry and on the nuclear facilities constitutes an attack on energy

infrastructure. And therefore, they're about, and we'll see in the minutes, hours, days to come,

they're about to launch a massive attack on Gulf states, on energy and power facilities

in a variety of Gulf states. Unbelievable. I mean, here's Ma'am Nafaz Nafal. I mean,

a real creep. But he is the official news guy of X, I guess, of Twitter. He is constantly

reporting, breaking news, and interviewing people. But he's really, really bad, and really

disgusting. But listen to this, right? And this is the sense in which Iranians are winning,

the sense in which people like Mario basically take their side.

Here he says, I'm pissed. Trump gave Iran a pause on strikes against their energy

infrastructure until April 6th. So what did Israel do? They bombed all three of Iran's largest

steel plants simultaneously, which are crucial for their economy.

Mees scratching my head, asking the question, wait a minute, is this energy infrastructure?

Steel plants? No. He continues. And if that wasn't enough, they also struck

he wants a heavy, what a reactive facility, as well as uranium production and uranium conversion

sites scratching my head again, nothing to do with their energy production. And indeed,

the United States and Israel set from day one, number one target, was the nuclear program. So

what's the surprise? Okay, he continues. All in the same day. How horrific is that?

Why did Israel do this? And was it in coordination with the United States?

Well, not according to JD Vance. If it's in coordination, it means Trump lied to the Iranians.

Oh my God, can you imagine this would be, I mean, global news. Trump lied. It must be the first time

ever. Although maybe, maybe what he means is Trump always lies to the Americans. No, he's lying to

the Iranians as well. How did that happen? I mean, God, anyway, if not, then Israel is lying.

If you take into account the report today, the JD Vance yelled at Netanyahu over the phone

this week, upset at being dragged into the war by misleading intelligence, then I think you have

your answer. Israel seems to be trying to sabotage these negotiations and it serves the interest

to do so. I mean, it's pretty, it's pretty amazing that this is the case. It's pretty amazing

that these people clearly advocating for the Iranian regime and they're just pissed off at Israel

and they will attack Israel at every opportunity and they'll go after Israel and they're doing Iran's

work to convince the world that this is a war instigated by Israel and this is a war that

Iran will win and Trump is lying. Iranians don't lie. Never lie. Iranians are 100% that they're

wonderful people. But, you know, Israel bombed their facilities. Now, JD Vance did supposedly,

we don't know I wasn't on the call, yell at Netanyahu. He yelled at Netanyahu not for

supposedly dragging United States into the war, but for claiming at the beginning of the war,

or before the war started, that regime change was going to be easy and it's not and it hasn't

happened yet. Now, there are questions about what Netanyahu actually said and what he actually

said to the Americans and JD Vance. Look, the very fact that JD Vance now is at the forefront of

the American administration's efforts around the war. He's the one that they were going to

send to negotiate in Pakistan. He's calling Netanyahu suggests a shift, a less friendly stance

of the Americans towards Israel. It suggests a shift towards trying to, you know, a shift to

trying to appease the Iranians in some way, trying to put an end to this. We'll see, we'll see,

but Vance was quiet for the first three and a half weeks of the war. Suddenly over the last few

days, Vance is in the news. Not a good thing. Not a good sign. Not a good sign for victory.

Okay, so that's basically what's happening. Israel is attacking the United States.

It's attacking United States. It's moving troops into the area. Ground troops, the rumour today

said they're thinking about deploying 10,000 troops to the Middle East. Again, fog of war,

I don't know exactly what's going on. I don't know what the Americans are doing. I don't know

what the plan is. Now, the detailed plans going up online, I've seen them all day today about the

fact that the United States will not go to Karag Island. That is a facility where all the

oil export facilities offer the Iranians. No, they're not going to take that island. They're

going to take three islands in the middle of the Homo straits. These are three islands. I showed

you in, when I did the maps, I showed you the three islands. Anyway, these are three islands that

the Shah of Iran basically took in the 1970s from the UAE. These are three islands that are in dispute

that the Iranians claim are theirs, that the UAE claim are theirs. They said, right smack in the middle

of the entrance to the Homo strait, they have incredible strategic potential. Again, why would this

be all of the news? That is, if they really intend to take those islands, why would they advertise

it in advance? I don't know what the military plans are. I have no insight into their intelligence.

To me, it makes sense, rather than to take Karag Island, it does make sense to take the Homo straits

itself, to take the islands, to control it. If you do that, you control all the shipping coming out

of Iran. You control their oil exports if you want to. If you want to destroy their oil exports,

you just bomb the hell out of Karag Island and turn it into dust, which the United States and Israel

could do, should do, should have done a long time ago, but won't. So that's kind of where we are.

Troops coming in, maybe Atlantic Scorsion, Trump talking to, I don't know, somebody in the Iranian

regime negotiating maybe a deal which the Iranians constantly say they're not interested in,

and they won't negotiate around under terms that the Iranians have rejected over and over and over again.

I can't imagine a deal that any of us would be happy with, that Israel would be happy with,

that the US should be happy with, that the Iranians would agree to at this point.

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Because here's the problem, and I want to talk about what victory means off of this. Here's the problem.

The Iranians look around the world right now. And wow, it's clear to them that they've taken

significant losses. It's clear to them that they've been devastated. All their losses from their

perspective can be rebuilt. With the right amount of money, they can rebuild anything. And one of

the great mysteries of this war, and somebody might be able to enlighten me about this, but one of

the great mysteries about this war is the United States continues to allow the Iranians to ship oil

out and to collect revenue from the oil sales. So, the Iranians look around the world and they say,

our oil is more valuable today than ever. People are willing to pay a lot of money for it.

We will get a massive revenue increase in the future. As long as the regime doesn't collapse,

we can rebuild our ballistic missiles, rebuild our factories, we can rebuild our, you know,

whatever we need to do because we have money coming in and we will have money coming in indefinitely.

The Americans in these realies are not touching our oil fields and our oil production facilities.

Those we cannot build, those will take years to rebuild. But they're not touching those. So,

as long as they don't touch those, it means we continue to have the ability to sell oil in the

market and they continue to have money. At the same time, we control the almost states.

Nobody seems to really be challenging that. I mean, there's a lot of noise being made. Americans

claim they're going to reopen it. The UAE today announced that they will reopen it. They're trying

to form an international coalition. They will open it, something I've been advocating for since week

one, but it still hasn't happened. There seems constantly reports about countries willing to do it

and nobody's actually sending, except the Indians. The Indians are the only ones that have seven

boats right outside the homostrates and they're claiming they're going to go in to escort Indian

ships out. We'll see if that happens. That'll be an interesting experiment to see what happens.

But so, they're looking at and they control the homostrates. The Americans are bombing it. The

bombing their facilities. They're destroying their small boats. But so far, they control the

homostates. Nobody's going anyway. And they're looking at others and say, yes, you know, we've lost

people. We've lost weapons. We've lost industry. But we haven't lost anything we can't rebuild.

And we have the money to rebuild because of oil. And yeah, as long as there's no regime change,

which is a big if, because after this war, let's say it ends tomorrow. Iran is significantly poorer.

If it takes all the money, it gets some oil and pours it into rebuilding its military. It'll

be even poorer. The Iranian people rose up against the regime in January, primarily because of

poverty and because of bad economics. I mean, they're going to have a hard time with Iranian people.

No question about that. Hard time with the Iranian people. But let's put that aside for now.

The Iranian regime is thinking, you know, we're not losing. We're not winning. You can't win.

But they're not losing. And they haven't, they haven't suffered enough. And this is the problem

with these soft wars, what I call soft wars. I mean, I'm really happy to see Israel

bombing these steel factories today. I mean, this shouldn't be a factory left standing in Iran.

That is, their entire civilian infrastructure should be demolished.

The Iranian government should understand that they have no economy when this is over. No economy.

I mean, the power plants should have been taken out. The gas facilities, which are all,

mostly, mostly, I think 80 percent. For domestic use, should have been taken out. You remember when

Israel took out 40 percent of them and tromboked and told them, no, don't do that anymore because of

Kata. I mean, that should have been taken out. The, you know, whatever is left of the Iranian

military establishment, if they're in bunkers deep down, and we know where they are,

big bunker-busting bombs should have been used, even if the result would have been collateral damage.

That is what you need here is a serious war. Now, what American the US is doing, what American

the US, what Israel and the US are doing is amazing in terms of precision attacks and

and unbelievable intelligence and all of that amazing, amazing.

But what you have to do is make it clear to the Iranians that they've lost.

They've lost. They've lost the country. They've lost their ability to govern. The future is

unbelievably bleak. I mean, Trump is, whatever he's negotiating, is telling them he's going to

eliminate sanctions. Well, sanctions are eliminated. They can, sanctions eliminate. They can build whatever

they want. You know, unless there's some guarantee that they won't build, but how do you, how do you

secure that guarantee? I mean, what Israel and the United States should be doing is making Iran so

improvised. There should be no electricity, anyway, anyone, because we bombed all the gas facilities

and whatever other forms of power they have. We bombed those as well. Then the regime will feel like,

oh my god, what are we going to do? And then you might actually get the Iranian people going out

to the streets and demanding a surrender. You've got victory means, one of the things about

victory is that the people who have been defeated know unequivocally without question

that they have lost. And that there is no recovery for them. Sort of surrender.

But you know, this was the, why he was humana Gisaki was so essential. They conveyed a clear message.

You have lost. There is no way out for you. And the Japanese got it. They got it. They had a surrender.

So what's missing right now is not only the opening of the Homo streets, which should have

happened by now, if it was planned properly in advance, then it would have happened by now.

Massive strategic failure. And don't believe all the people who are telling you out to all these

former generals and admirals telling you, oh no, we know the US government, US military prepared for

all these scenarios. They have a plan. They know, yeah, they do. They have plans. Plans, you know,

just like Israel had a plan for what would happen if they need to invade Gaza. But then when they

actually had to implement their plan, they had a we can see the whole thing and it took them three

weeks. Was there a plan on day one? Was there a plan on day minus one? What to do with the

Homo streets? And the answer to that is no, there was no plan. Trump evaded the need for one

and launched the attack without one thinking he wouldn't need it. And so it's taken full,

you know, took two weeks to get a plan. It's going to take four, five weeks to implement a plan.

Ultimately, I mean, it's it's possible. Very, very, very possible to open the Homo streets. It's very,

very, very doable. With the right Navy supports, the right ships in place. Absolutely, it can be done.

And it should be done and it will be done, I guess. But in the meantime, the Ukrainians are looking

and they're seeing the world and they're seeing the world panicking, they're seeing all prices go up,

fertilize the prices go up, they're seeing people panicking about global starvation, panicking

about the price of oil panicking because they're going to be no micropossessors because there's no

helium panicking about all these things and the Ukrainians are going, yeah, we're winning. We're winning.

Right.

It's a funny comment on the chat from Aubrey. So I'm distracted. Sorry. We'll get, you know, maybe we'll

get to that. When America has to convey to the world, unequivocally, and all this talk about

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sponsored by ChambaCasino. Hi, this is Alex Cantrowitz. I'm the host of Big Technology podcast,

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figure out how artificial intelligence is changing the business world and our lives. So each week on

Big Technology, I bring on key actors from companies building AI tech and outsiders trying to

influence it. Asking where this is all going, they come from places like Nvidia, Microsoft,

Amazon, and plenty more. So if you want to be smart with your wallet, your career choices,

and meetings with your colleagues and at dinner parties, listen to Big Technology podcast

wherever you get your podcasts. American needs to convey to you on into the world that there is

no negotiated settlement for this. It needs to convey to you on into the world that the

homostrates will be open sooner rather than later. And when they are open, all bets are off

for this regime. That this regime is history. Maybe at the beginning, they should've, they should

say no. Maybe at the beginning of the campaign, we thought maybe we could still kind of deal with

you guys. Maybe you'd learn a lesson. Now, given your behavior, given your attack on the Gulf

States, given everything that's happened, we will not settle this war until you guys are all dead,

until this regime is buried.

Now you could do that. You open the homostrates, the economic pressures go away.

You drop special forces teams onto the cave complexes. You drop special forces teams

onto where the uranium enrichment is. And you take out the complexes, you make sure

systematically whatever it takes to destroy the ballistic missile capabilities, you make it zero.

So they're launching zero. And then you can just wait it out. You can just send drones into the streets

to kill the season IRGC. And the war will be over at some point if they will give in or the

Iranian people will take control. But you have to do it. And you have to blink in the place.

Turn it dark. No lights at night. No lights at night. I don't need heat right now. It's already

April. But no lights at night. And if you do that, I think there was over pretty quickly.

But when you negotiate and you keep saying, I really want the water end. And two weeks that

will be done. And now it's four weeks. No, no, no, no. Rubio just said two to four weeks from today.

Which is probably more realistic because if they're going to invade the islands, if they're going

to bring troops in, they need to build up the infrastructure for that. That's going to take weeks,

weeks, probably four, rather than two.

And you know, somebody says you can't tell the theocracy surrender. You have to tell them to get

out. No, you can't tell them anything. You have to kick them out. You have to kill as many of

them as necessary for them to run away. And you have to get the population to rise up against them.

And, and you know, I don't think we're that far away from it. It needs that push. Victory is

possible. Victory is within our reach. But it's that final push, which it doesn't seem like Trump

is willing to make, right? Take out the power plant. No, no, no, we're doing 25s. No, five days,

no, no, no, 10 days. I mean, how does the Iranian regime read that?

It reads it as Trump is a coward. It reads it as Trump is not willing to do what's necessary to

actually win. But the reality right now is Saudis want the regime gone. UAE wants the regime

gone. Bahrain wants the regime gone. You know, they've even talked about potentially using their

own forces. UAE is volunteering its navy, which is small, but very, very technologically advanced.

I think they even have minesweepers, which the US does not.

Oh, I completely think that the Iranians think he's too cowardly. I mean, what is the US has not

touched any of their economic facilities? The US has not taken out any of their leadership.

The US has focused on big infrastructure, trying to break those caves, trying to get the missiles

going after the shore. The US has not shown any willingness to attack civilian infrastructure,

not shown any winningness to actually penalize this regime, penalize it in a way that their people

will suffer. People have to suffer in a war. No way around it.

This regime is right now. I mean, if you look at the Iranians, on the one hand, as I said,

they look around and they see Trump who is mostly cowardly. I mean, the Israelis have taken out the

leadership. By every account, it's been the Israelis. The Americans have not attacked leadership,

which is interesting, right? Americans have not taken out leadership. The Israelis have.

And they continue to do so. And there's rumors of more leadership being decapitated yesterday

and today. We just haven't got confirmation yet. But not the US. US doesn't do those kind of things.

So they look around. They see the unwillingness of the US to act against this civilian infrastructure.

They see the effect they're having on the global markets. And the effect that has on Trump.

By the way, Trump did the 10-day extension when he saw the market going down dramatically.

They see the 10-year bond going way high because nobody right now trusts the Trump administration

and it ends and it's quick endless quickly. But on the other hand, they also see

their colleagues killed, their weapons systems that you've rated, their people hate them.

It's not clear who's running Iran right now. It's, you know, it's part of it.

Supreme leader might be, might not be. Nobody knows. Speak of the House is supposedly negotiating

with Trump, but there's the air power. The head of the IRGC knows there's bounty on his head.

And it's just a question of time before Israel succeeds in killing him.

They're certainly trying whether they're actually gotten him or not. We'll find out.

But he knows they're after him. Every IRGC commander at a senior position knows Israel is trying

to kill them. The only two people who are off the list right now are the speak of the House,

who's negotiating with Trump supposedly. And the foreign minister, Trump took them off the list.

There's another sign of unbelievable weakness.

The Iranian drone threat is not that big of a deal.

The Iranian drones, the numbers have been depleted dramatically. Again, if you look at the numbers

from the early part of the war, they're way down. Drone facilities have been destroyed.

Even the fleet of ships that was bringing in drones from Russia on the Caspian Sea has been

destroyed. So I'm sure Russia is trying to bring in drones in other means and other ways.

But Israel's watching those as well.

You know, the drones can be launched. Saudi Arabia just signed a big deal with the Ukrainians

to develop to bring to Saudi Arabia the drone, the anti drone technology.

Drones can be shot down. Drones can be shot down.

Chinese ships are not going up the homostrates so they're not delivering anything. They might be

delivering by road elsewhere. The drone manufacturing facilities have been bombed.

There's very little that the Iranian regime has. I mean, most drones are shot down. 90

plus percent of drones are shot down. And with the Ukrainian technology, not at a huge cost.

Oh, here's another one. You know, why hasn't the United States? Here's a good question.

I mean, this is part of this civilian infrastructure question. Why hasn't the United States basically

shut down every Iranian port? Civilian port. Why isn't it basically said?

No ships can come and no ships can leave. Nobody. Any ships that does leave will get boarded.

Any ships that attempts to dock at a Iranian port will be sunk. And generally, why don't they

just demolish the ports? Why haven't they destroyed the ports? It's not that hard to destroy a

port. It wouldn't take much. I mean, again, this is American weakness. This is not taking a war

seriously. This is playing video games, wars, video games, not a strategic thinking.

Why are the Iranians still exporting oil? Why not board every single Iranian tanker

and take and take the oil for yourself?

None of this is hard. United States has the asset in place to do all that.

Does it need a second able? Does it need boots on the ground?

It's, again, it's a, it really is, you know, maybe a video game war. And with rules of war,

straight out of just a theory, no civilian casualties, no civilian facilities, don't hope the

economy after we build afterwards. But that's what they're doing. That's how they're fighting.

And they're bombing. Every day, huge amounts. But nothing civilian.

No, none of the ports, they bombed ships. They've sunk basically the entire Iranian Navy.

92% supposedly of the ships. I don't understand. They eat percent. Supposedly, there's one

large Iranian warships still standing. Why? Why hasn't it been sunk? So I don't know. I mean,

somebody should have checked your team. Maybe they know. Why is the one ship not being sunk? Is it

in China? Is it in a tunnel? Down? Is it as a disappear? Nobody can find it? I mean, satellite

imagery. You think you could find it pretty easily. And then, you know, one bomb and it's gone.

So when you fight with two hands or one hand tied behind your back, when you fight without a

pure commitment to victory, then you get entangled in crag mayas. You get entangled in long

wars. You get and you get the possibility of actually not winning in spite of the tactical

and to some extent, you know, the tactical brilliance of this campaign.

Certainly on the American side, there is a massive void of strategy. Again, no strategy for the

states of Formos, no strategy to take out the civilian infrastructure or no willingness to take

out the civilian infrastructure. Is yours doing it? Maybe it's getting American approval.

Maybe not. I do not know. But the IDF is focusing now and I think in the next day a couple of days

will focus on economic targets. They're worried. They're worried that the US is going to cut a deal

here and not win. And for short a victory. So they are doing what they can to take out whatever

assets they can while they still can do it. And of course, you know, the United States Trump

can tomorrow say, no more steel plants. Don't buy many factories. He could say that. We have no

idea what he'll say, right? Like you said about the gas. Like you said about power. No, it can't do

that. Why not? Essential for victory?

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Could West Texas could West Texas always for the you know for one of the few times during you know

as of one of the few times it's above 100. It was at 94 and a half at midnight. So it spent the

whole day just going up over 100. That's not good news. It's also kind of maybe a hedge before the

weekend. Gold is up. Silver is still under 70 but up from its lows. The dollar is going down not

hugely. Bond yields are very high. 4.44 on the 10 year bond maybe close to 5 on the 30 year bond.

Bitcoin is collapsing. Go figure. If Bitcoin is a hedge against something somebody let me know

what it's a hedge against exactly. So again victory is very close. Very achievable

with the right strategic commitment. Open up to the state of hormones. Open it up AACP.

All you have to do for the whole price to come down is is is having a matter of ships from

variety of different countries ready to go. All prices will come down and then go do it.

And you should be able to start that with whichever countries are ready to do it right now. I mean

again the Indian ships there there's the UAE there maybe the Saudis will go in maybe the Bahrain

they don't have a huge navy but again they're very sophisticated in navies and in the Americans have

a navy there. Japan has a ship there. Just go in and do it. I guess they're waiting for the ground

troops. I guess they're waiting for the ground troops to take the islands before they put ships

in harm's way. That's the only explanation I have for not having done it already.

And ground troops take a long time to get them in place you have to arm them you have to train them

you have to make sure they know what their targets are. Not easy at all and it just takes time but

victory it's easy to know what the goal is and it's easy to achieve that goal.

God there's so many funny things going on. I found it hard to just focus on this.

All right. What else did I want to say about victory?

Yeah I mean the US could declare unilateral declaration of victory.

But the UAE is not going to be happy the Saudis are not going to be happy.

The Israelis won't be happy. A unilateral declaration of victory will basically give

the Iranians complete control over the states of almost. It would be an unmitigated disaster.

Israel is kind of thinks that this is possible that Trump would do this.

But UAE and Saudi Arabia are really hustling to convey to the United States as this is not

acceptable. Iran must be defeated and that means the Gulf of Humors is open is open.

Second scenario is a detailed agreement an actual deal

but you know it's not clear to me there's anybody to deal with on the Iranian side these are

religious fanatics. They have no interest in giving in particularly if the United States does not

show the willingness to take out their entire country in other words their

facilities, their power plants, their gas facilities really make this the end of you you know

the destruction of the Iranian infrastructure through and through.

So you know we're going to see we're going to see whether Trump is serious or not it

it those are hard words to say Trump is serious he's not serious but whether the people around him

can get him to do the right thing or not.

So yeah we will see we will see let me go through some of this and

yeah we're not going to do that and if you look at you know if you look at how bad things are in

the markets relative to past wars this was not that bad in terms of prices in terms of stocks

but it's getting there and if it continues it could easily become much worse than the

queen war the Gulf war or other wars or the even the Arab oil embargo. Again the United

States needs to get its act together really does now it's that going down 2% today not good

and not good in terms of this is this is significant pressure on on Trump.

All right I guess there's fear right that if you run Iranian infrastructure is really heard

then there'll be a massive refugee crisis and this was right at the beginning of the war but he says

oh oh war this will be awful there'll be massive refugees Turkey will be you know Iran has a

border with Turkey. Turkey will be flooded they'll be heading to Europe and the fact is since the

war started the number of refugees is actually declined the number of people crossing the Turkish

border is actually gone down not up now it's true that if it really gets bad in Iran there is a

possibility that more refugees will try to cross that border it's also possible to stop them from

doing that you can stop them in a variety of different military ways the border is not that long

they could flood into Iraq but what would they do in Iraq? Iraq would be kind of a waste for them

where they're going to go exactly. Turkey doesn't want them the US if the US decides it doesn't

want them to cross over it can help Turkey stop them. There's no three million Iranians displaced

into Turkey right now it's just since the war began maybe over the last 10 years but it just

it's just these made up numbers made up numbers. A lot of Iranians in the West might go to Pakistan

or Afghanistan but who cares and not a lot for them to seek over there right. Yeah I mean there's

very there's ultimately very little risk particularly if this can be done quickly the

psych civilly thoroughly and then the United States comes in with some kind of eight package some

kind of lifting of sanctions helping to rebuild the energy facilities American old companies come

in you could get Iran back up to you know economic prosperity fairly quickly it just opened the

spirit of investment not government investment private investment just let us all companies come

in there and start working the oil fields it could be done very very very quickly very quickly

once in

can you buy six

all right

okay here's is the three million number that the Tommy is is educated is enlightening us with

up to 3.2 million people estimated to have been internally displaced within Iraq you want since

the beginning of the conflict yeah basically Tehran is emptied out so there is no evidence of

so there's evidence of being being displaced it says most of the displaced are fleeing Tehran

in other urban centers in the northern part of the country while fears of a large-scale refugee

crisis exist initial reports indicate that neighboring countries such as Armenia and Turkey had

fortified their borders limiting external departures however the situation remains fluid with the

UN appeals to the humanitarian of course the UN will appeal for humanitarian assistance that is

their job right so no no no significant outside of Iran I mean you could expect Azerbaijan

to accept a lot of the azeris north-western Iran the Kurds and then there's azeris something like

what is it 20 or 30 percent of the Iranian population are azeris that's the same tribe if you

will as as a bajan azeri bajan that's how it's named you can imagine azeris fleeing to

Azerbaijan but even that doesn't seem to be happening in large numbers there a lot of mountains on the

way it's not easy so yeah no big refugee crisis yet and I don't think one to be expected

Tyler Reddick here from 2311 Racing another checkered flag for the books time to celebrate with

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yeah I mean let's say rubio said two to four weeks he rejects the idea of of

Iran controlling homostrates in the future trumpet some point says me and I at

two level control the homostrates I don't think the the you know the Saudis and the UAE and

Qatar's Qataris are going to like that regime change the the understanding right now in

Israel for regime changes it's not going to happen as long as there's fighting while regime

change is the ultimate victory if we're thinking about victory then regime change is the ultimate

victory that will happen after the was over that'll happen after this regime is weakened so badly

and the civilian population is so furious and it's suffering so much that then they will rise up

but it probably won't happen while they're still bombing going on all over to Iran now

now I've seen videos and I don't know again if to trust them or not a videos of Iranians

basically you know shooting shooting revolutionary guard corpse or or besiege in various places

around Iran and on it to Iran but in other places around Iran that they are armed now I'm sure

the Mossad and the CIA are arming whatever elements of the opposition are willing to be armed

I'm sure there's a lot of that going on whether that's enough

to make a difference I do not know right Abu Dhabi has announced that it would deploy its navy

in the homo straits for the homo security for the homo security force it's asking other countries

to join they are of all countries they're the ones exhibiting the biggest spine they're also

the ones assigned to Abraham Accord so they have a peace deal with Israel they are buying technology

from Israel and buying military technology from Israel wouldn't be surprised if they get one of

those laser beams to shoot down drones let's see what else there is here yeah we talked about the

steel plants steel plants have been taken out they have a water nuclear complex was taken out

the I mean there's a whole list here metology company other industries holy an industrial

town east of Iraq and note that what these Israelis are doing in these industrial places

is the warning in advance they evacuates are there no casualties but they're destroying the facilities

yeah I mean the this is the UAE embassy in the United States it says we can't let you on hold the

US the UAE and the global economy hostage a simple ceasefire isn't enough we need a conclusive

outcome that addresses Iran's full range of threats

again this is no very few countries in the world are taking a strong of a stance against

the Iranians as the UAE the UAE stands instead of from our narrative is confident

that the thumb yeah so they are no ceasefire let's see this is the yellow cake production site

near Yazid Iran yellow cake is U308 this uranium 308 it's a production site it's the only one

of it's kind in Iran and it's necessary for taking war material and ultimately enriching it

in enrichment facilities and centrifuges all right is this steel

rubrio is told the g7 will be two to four weeks

India supposedly has said that it will it's going into the straits to escort the chips

we'll see if that happens yeah that's that that's that I'm just making sure I've got everything

have you what a plant again

yeah yeah this evening Iran put out a list of all the things that they're going to strike now

Israel struck their steel plants you know quate desalination plants complex and power plant

you know the Arab Emirates it's a nuclear power plant desalination plant power plant power plant

and solar park in for Saudi Arabia it's desalination plant and power and water station

Bahrain it's power and water stations Qatar power station and power and water station

Jordan power station power generation station so they're going after civilian infrastructure and all

those countries um note that UAE at least has massive reserves of water so if they take out their

desalination plant they're not going to all go thirsty um hall corrects me in terms of the uranium

uranium 238 I don't know the story said we named 308 but you're probably right um

all right yeah we talked about that we talked about that we talked about all of this there we go

all right so bottom line my conclusion after a month of war is

we're close now states and there's all the close to winning this winning is within reach it's not

outside of each it is um it is essential to win but victory requires a kind of commitment

that goes beyond what the United States at least has shown willingness to do in this war

so winning will both require whatever it takes to open the homo streets and it will require

punishing Iran in a way that is going to cause civilian pain taking our power taking our gas

facilities making sure the Iranians you know and my view is I don't care about Qatar they can take

out all of Qatar as far as I'm concerned the LNG market will find other sources

who cares about the Iranians attacking Qatar is like like God exists and he's and he's implementing

justice in our life um you know that that's what it's like uh Qatar is like the worst of the Gulf

states it has been an ally of the Iranians it has been home to Hamas it has been you know

Thawali anti-Israel even now it is blaming Israel for everything that's going on

anything they get from the Iranians they absolutely deserve

Israel has promised the Americans not to attack Qatar that's fine let the Iranians do it for

Israel let the Iranians attack Qatar that's fine uh you know hopefully these Israelis and the Americans

can help the UAE and the Saudis because right now those allies of ours um to defend their

infrastructure and let the Qataris go to hell um it was the Qataris that after Israel struck for

the the gas facilities and Iran attacked the Qatari gas facilities it was the Qataris that got

Trump to ban uh stop Israel from attacking infrastructure or at least gas infrastructure in the

future um we should stop listening to Qataris we should have never listened to Qataris I mean

okay the biggest liability for victory the biggest liability to victory

is Trump it's Trump's willingness to listen to people like the Qataris

it's Trump's willingness to try to quote negotiate

it's Trump's unwillingness to go all in and actually get and and that doesn't mean ground troops

in Beirut you don't need ground troops in Beirut although I don't know if you saw this news

today right I told you about this yesterday or the day before about Uganda's uh like uh head

head of the Ugandan army saying that if Israel needs they hope they're happy to come and they

will they they're happy to you know defend Israel and help Israel Uganda right because they

Christians and the Jews and their brothers and they will help them out anyway today they the same

head of the Ugandan army said maybe it's yesterday he said um you want boots on the ground

what be your boots on the ground we're willing to invade Iran we we will take Tehran in two weeks

Uganda we'll take Tehran in two weeks he also said he models his life after Morsed Dayan the

legendary Israeli general and defense minister so uh go Uganda I mean it's part of the funny stories

all right that that are in in surrounding this uh this whole uh whole insanity right

you

anyway um yeah I mean the biggest liability here is Trump

Trump's unwillingness it's actually fight a war and willingness to put boots on the ground

Trump's unwillingness to destroy civilian infrastructure Trump's unwillingness

to completely back Israel Trump's unwillingness to listen to Qataris and negotiate with the Iranians

that is the number one unequivocal obstacle to this war now again even if it ended today

Israel would be safer I'm not sure about Kato and uh and uh the UAE and Saudi Arabia they might

not be safer but Israel is safer but that's not good enough I want total victory total victory

we got an administration of of of net cases one of the things that caused me to laugh

while we were going was this about JD Vance right

he's doing an interview with the Benny show and he's asked about UAFOTs member UAFOTs unidentified flying

and this is what the vice president of the united states maybe potentially a future president

of the united states this is what he says I don't think the aliens and I was going okay wow

oh that's good he doesn't think the aliens he thinks they're unidentified no but what he says is

I don't think the aliens I think they're demons

vice president of the united states a future candidate for the president of the united states

thinks UAFOs are actually demons now they shouldn't surprise you it shouldn't surprise you

he is really really best friends with uh the the you know the the guy the demon scratched

the the the guy who the demons attacked he's he's best friend with tucker Carlson so why why am I

surprised I mean I don't know there's a level of irrationality a level of irrationality out there

that just keeps surprising me I can't imagine anybody's really serious about this and then

people who are ps serious say this kind of stuff and you go oh oh it's sooner than you think

as iron man would say the the world is still massively irrational

Tyler Reddick here from 2311 racing another checkered flag for the books time to celebrate

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choices and meetings with your colleagues and at dinner parties listen to big technology podcast

or ever you get your podcasts here's another news report Saudi Arabia urging the United States to

ramp up Iran attacks Saudi Arabia's urge the US to ramp up attacks on Iran as Saudi intelligence

sources confirmed while it is weighing a decision whether to join the fight directly yeah you think

if they're urging the United States to ramp up they would join the Saudi source confirmed reports

in the New York Times that said the kingdom is the fact is the kings that de facto leader

mbs is urged Donald Trump not to cut short his war against you on and that U.S. Israeli campaign

represents a stark opportunity to remake the Middle East absolutely the intelligence source said

read has a not it's not just called for the military campaign to continue but to be intensified

Trump appeared to confirm the report about the conference war telling journalists on Tuesday

yeah he's a warrior he's fighting with us no really he's troops are not out there

the no report of active Saudi military involvement in the nearly four week war so far

but a Saudi political analyst said the kingdom would be likely to take that step if peace efforts

led by Pakistan failed Saudi Arabia and Iran claiming leadership roles of the Sunni and Shia

Islamic worlds respectively have long been regional rivals according to a leaked U.S.

State Department cable the crown princess paternal uncle king Abdullah urged the United States

military in 2008 to cut off the head of the snake a reference to theocratic regime in terran

maybe you read Lenin Pekoff's full page ad in in in 2002 calling for the same thing the crown

prince solidified his hold on power by cultivating close relationship with Trump but will now have

to rethink Saudi reliance on the U.S. for its security observers have argued yeah China will step

in if the United States doesn't do its job mbs has lost the bet on all his investments over the

last several years he financially invested in Trump and Trump's family and his corporations

and his white house but at the end of the day the views of the Saudis and the of the whole Gulf

have been sidelined by the wishes of Benjamin Netanyahu which will harm it has begun to

recalibrate this position after missile attack on the Saudi off-sales anyway the Saudis try to

link up with the Chinese and that didn't work very well for them if you remember if you remember

the they also signed a mutual defense agreement with the Pakistanis and when Saudi Arabia was attacked

at the beginning of the war they asked the Pakistani state to be in as part of the mutual

defense agreements and the Pakistanis refused so that mutual defense agreement has not gone very

well for the Saudis either there's stuck with Americans one way or another now a few minutes ago

the Houthis the Houthis had a press conference and made an announcement not a press conference

just an announcement and everybody thought that the announcement would entail them entering the

conflict and closing off the straits leading to the Red Sea which would create another headache

however the statement didn't say that it set a number of thresholds for Houthi

environments including the U.S. and Israel failing to seek a diplomatic pathway to ending the

conflict increased aggression against both Iran and the Houthis the use of the Red Sea

to target you on expanded coalition with the U.S. and the implementation of the past Gaza agreements

anyway they're looking for excuses not to intervene which is interesting maybe all those

attacks by the Israelis and the Americans maybe all of that has caused them to step back step back

we will see but so far Houthis in spite of the fact that everybody expected them to announce that

they were going to intervene they basically have decided at least for now not to intervene maybe

they value their lives

all right

yeah I mean look talks are going on it's just a question of probability of whether a deal could

be struck it's unlikely a good deal can be struck now Trump might be willing to compromise quite a

bit on his demands in order just in order to be able to walk away and and I think that's what these

Israelis are fearing it's unlikely almost impossible that it's pretty much impossible

that a deal a good deal would be struck and the whole thing is a massive waste of time

and massive waste of time

so uh

yep

okay uh super chat super chat time let me remind you

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Alex Epstein alie Epstein is um the number one authority in all things energy oil oh god

i mean one of the things that this conflict is making so real is Alex's argument that he's

been making for over 10 years now the fossil fuels at the heart of our life they're in the middle

they're everything everything is dependent on fossil fuels so right now plastic places

through the roof fertiliser places through the roof chips worried about helium places which are

through the roof um so oil and natural gas yeah you get that that that is going to be problematic

because the states are foremost but pretty much everything that modern life depends on

relies on fossil fuels and it's Alex who is as far as i know the first person who really

concretized that would make that real check him out Alex Epstein does subsite.com and uh finally

defenders of capitalism.com a wonderful website and program defending capitalism by uh from

uh Michael Williams to which i have contributed all right let's see um

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and it's way too fun to mess all right let's let's keep going here with your questions

so uh uh yonatan says as much as I agree with you on most things most issues I constantly thank

my lucky stars you have almost no influence on military matters uh in real life uh yeah I mean

I have no influence on military matters in real life but you're wrong your life for I don't know

where you live yonatan that is an Israeli name I don't know if you live in Israel but Israel would be

a lot like safer right now and if the america would have listened to me after 9-11 uh we wouldn't

be going through any of this right now it'll be all over the the the real thing about our politicians

and our military strategist is they're very very good at nitch and he always brilliant at this

and american politicians are brilliant at this kicking the can down the road constantly delay

delay delay delay delay delay delay delay never never win never you know uh finish

and that's why we had up to a seventh it's why we had 9-11 it's why after 9-11 all these terrorist

attacks in the west and that's why we're having a fight a war with Iran right now it's because nobody

listened to me for the last 23 years and if you go back 23 years if you go back to my talks

after 9-11 including the one in Israel in 2003 which is on c-span you can find it on c-span

um you all you will discover that i've been right on everything that i've said

and on the big picture it says a war would happen if they didn't listen to me

emiel says manachembegin would have dealt with this no you wouldn't have and he didn't he didn't

and the 1982 in Israel invaded Lebanon and when all the way to Beirut manachembegin didn't even

even know there was happening because al-qasharon lied to him and basically drove

basically you know drove the campaign without Begin's full knowledge

Begin was not as tough as he would seem and suddenly Begin allowed yes or off at escape

Lebanon because of Reagan Begin made many many many many many mistakes and no there's no reason

will he begin would have done any better than any of these others any of these others um you

on has no cards zero cards if america actually engages if america does what it's capable of doing

a weak america an america that doesn't want to win that refuses to win will lose in that sense

though the cards you on has is a weak america is is a trump that doesn't know what he wants

and and and can't actually engage for victory

um author says will the objectives movements still grow after you're gone will it grow significantly

most slowly no i don't i don't think that's true at all and if it does it'll be a big

failure of mine but no no i mean that first of all the objectives movement grows because of

iron man it's still true the most people come to objectivism because they read iron man in high

school college not because of me i bring a lot of people in but nowhere near the numbers that come

through iron man iron man is the source and iron man's novels are the way objectivism the way

objectivism um you know actually actually will grow and sustain itself and and exist

plus i really do believe that we are training a a a poll generation of intellectuals who will

take my place take my place so hopefully work side by side with me in the years to come

and uh have a bigger impact than i do and there'll be bigger numbers of them

so uh you know it will be a huge a huge defeat from my behalf of failure on my behalf

if they're not if i'm not replaced with 20 people right if for every one of me they're on 20

so um no i think it it the objectives movement will accelerate over time

but it has to be you have to take into account the um the context this the society i mean if

this if people are brainless then there's nobody to talk to but as long as society is reasonable

then yes um yeah and of course you know the real contributions of your objectives objectivism

iron man of course founder and and a creator of it and then let it peak off uh opa you don't have

objectives and without those so i'm i'm i'm not in the big picture i'm not that important um in in the

big picture

Michael even when i get british people to admit NHS sucks they say well it's underfunded

why can't they understand it's the nature and incentive structure of a socialized system

to always be dysfunctional well because

because they're altruists because you know they they believe that with enough good will and with

enough money i mean why why do people keep pocketing for socialism why do people still believes

communism is a noble idea because of altruism it's all altruism it's all altruism so um

altruism is what keeps returning these people to the NHS keeps insisting it will work just if we

think of with it just right they can't imagine that a system like the NHS wouldn't work that would

that would cause them to have to question the whole premise of altruism is applied to politics

and they can do that they won't allow themselves to do it and of course it doesn't help

that there's no real alternative system out there uh that is purely private that they can see

without any question is better

partially because they're ignorant of the Swiss system the American system and other systems

all right let me think west did a fifty dollar stick i think you think you west

come on that should be a challenge to you guys out there uh to do uh to do fifty dollars or more

beat west out uh we're stickers jack thank you for the sticker

uh paul thank you for the sticker tskon thank you for the sticker uh to to tom merri merri

merri lean thank you uh woeland thank you and i think i saw Jonathan honingwright at the beginning

yes and silvanos and uh jian jian and polo

right i think i got all the sticker people for now but don't let that stop you keep

there in woeland woeland thank you uh keep keep the stickers coming in um keep the sticker coming

in uh thank you all right let's see james interesting fact i learned recently the idea of equality

on material possessions actually doesn't originate with communism it comes from plato so the

idea of re-education concentration camps where we're in plato's writings yeah i mean

uh in the early christians i mean what are what are monasteries if not places where communism is practiced

vow of poverty and uh everybody's equal and uh you know simple life but equality equality

material possessions is crucial in a in a monastery another way so and and if you will

that to a large extent comes from plato christian he's very uh neo-placenist christian he's very neo-placenist

toleretic here from twenty three eleven races another checkered flag for the books time to celebrate

with chamba jump in at chamba casino dot com let's chamba no purchase necessary btw crook void

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lunatic in the newsroom if you enjoy journalism that drifts into mild panic wild overthinking and a

guaranteed nervous breakdown lunatic in the newsroom is for you it's news like you've never heard

before the only newsroom with a panic button you'll laugh you'll cry and gasp and horror as the show

spirals completely out of control it's not just news it's emotionally unstable lunatic in the newsroom

listen today michael thoughts on uh steven klobeck running for governor of california

seems like a legitimate businessman refuses to work with trump in the hotel business

yeah i don't know who he is i haven't really followed the particulars of all the people running

for the gummership in california right now it doesn't look like anybody you know the

there are these uh i guess he's he's the CEO of diamond results international

is he republican or a democrat um i'm trying to uh to to tom tom why it doesn't actually give the

three he's a governor it doesn't tell you if he's a republican or a democrat um anyway um

you know i'll take pretty much uh he's a democrat well then he's not even close to the top

democrats uh that look like they could get elected um it's still it's still way way way below

yeah so he doesn't seem like to be one of the more prominent democrats that might have a chance

to get elected the democrats are going to have to consolidate they vote around a couple of candidates

otherwise the republicans will win one and two and uh and uh will be a republican governor which i

don't think what happened i think democrats will figure out kick a bunch of people out and focus

and focus on the you know uncertain people to uh uh focus the candidacy so that at least one

democrat will make the runoff but you know anybody who's in business is going to be better than the

than the joke that they have right now and particularly some of the people running in the democratic

right now would be democratic party right now for governor california are awful and will be worse than

newsroom all right lewis has a fifty dollar question thank you lewis really appreciate the support

you're gonna do that movie review let me know if you still want me to do it um anyway uh could you give

concrete examples of how the average person commonly engages in altruism in everyday life without

being aware yeah i mean i think that the the the lots of little and larger examples um

the person who doesn't really like his family and doesn't appreciate them at all and doesn't get

anything out of them constantly doing what his mother wants and constantly going to visit

not out of a sense of any value here not even of loving their mother but out of a sense of duty towards

their mother out of a sense of altruism uh you have to sacrifice for family a boss who has

clearly an underperforming employee who's arguably even doing damage to the project who won't

fire them because i don't know they have a sick kid or uh some situation at home that they would

suffer significantly if they were fired and so he won't fire them out of again a sense of

more important not to not to cause this person any pain than what's good for the team what's

good for the company um you know the incredibly successful entrepreneur who has done really

really well and succeeded made a lot of money but who feels guilty it feels like he should have

done more for the world you know the effective altruist type who thinks oh how do i give all the

money i've made i made it in kind of an illegitimate way in some sense so i need to give it a

way to not quite buy myself into heaven because most of them are some of them at least atheists

but in order to reduce the guilt that i feel

the person who is raised with altruism in his life and rejects it hates it hates the idea of

sacrificing for other people but instead of that becomes a cynical manipulative other people and

uh you know tries to exploit them in every kind of way and indeed hates other people because he knows

the morality demands that he sacrificed to them so the kind of malevolent types out there who

just resent everybody around them and hate everybody around them they're well they've been driven

by altruism it's affecting their lives and indeed many of them malevolence that you see in the

world out there is driven by the fact that people they don't want to sacrifice for others and

they know it's their duties so they they lash out with malevolence

because they can't supposedly they can't live up to this morality

you know what we talked about the narcissist being another manifestation of this right so

um i don't know uh

you know friends who um ask you to do them a favor and you can't you've got other stuff to do and

it's not a good time and they're not that close to a friend and and you do it because

they asked you and you feel like you have a duty to help them out

now you know you have to balance that versus friends who are close and they're important to you

and you really value the friendship and it's important to you to to help them out that's different

right so those are some examples of altruism you know altruism in in day-to-day lives for

average people i think and not so average people out there let me know if if you want to follow

up on that of that is satisfactory

all right savannos thank you for ongoing coverage of the war you on appreciate it savannos thank

you for the ongoing support william go israel don't trust the trump administration

yeah no kidding thank you william molten splendor interestingly there have been complaints of a

us weapon shortage due to our sale of weapons to Ukraine maybe those weapons were really outdated

and obsolete just like you said well i mean there is there's a weapon shortage not so much in the field

but the stockpiles are dwindling and the united states are still supposed to be

selling weapons to NATO that then gives it to Ukraine and there is a lot of talk right now

there hasn't been a decision made yet but there's a lot of talk right now but not selling it to

Ukraine and instead using those weapon systems to both the the you know stockpiles

i i don't know the details i don't have the numbers but there's no question that the united states

over the last decade or more has been has not been building enough missiles primarily

patriot systems the different anti the different anti the different defense systems

and even tomahawks the the the christmas sauce they're not building enough of those they haven't

built enough of those they've expensive and they didn't think they were going to get involved

in a war so they didn't build them and it's not clear that capacities there that is again

there hasn't been the kind of strategic long-term thinking certainly enough in this administration

but not for Biden certainly enough in Obama about how do we how do we sustain enough of an industrial

capacity to build these weapons when we need them uh so they just haven't built them and

they're not building enough of them and the manufacturers of these weapons systems are saying

yeah we can only build them really slowly and the trump administration now wants to build them

fast and but that capacity is not there and they'd have to build it

so there is a there's a real need to scale up weapons production

real need to scale up weapons production and one way to do that is to

expand the profit margins of the of the builders profit is an incentive tell them you'll get a

10% profit on the first hundred 20% 20% profit on I'm making numbers up I don't know what the

number should be but something like this and if you can deliver a thousand to me in year one

I mean you get this in construction all the time if you can exceed if you can if you can deliver

early will give you a bonus so tell them any factors if you can if you can two acts you're deliveries

over the next year you'll get a big bonus something like that so instead of

barbeying them and instead of yelling at them and getting mad and threatening them with all the

kind of things uh the carrot is much more effective give them a carrot give them a bonus for

delivering you do that again we do that in construction all the time you deliver the building

uh two months early you get a bonus

Tyler Reddick here from 2311 Racing victory lane yeah it's even better with chamba by my side

race to chamba casino dot com let's chamba no purchase necessary btw group void

we're prohibited by law ctnc's 21 plus sponsored by chamba casino hey I'm Josh Speagle host of the

podcast lunatic in the newsroom if you enjoy journalism that drifts into mild panic wild overthinking

and a guaranteed nervous breakdown lunatic in the newsroom is for you it's news like you've never

heard before the only newsroom with a panic button you'll laugh you'll cry and gasp and horror

as the show spirals completely out of control it's not just news it's emotionally unstable lunatic in

the newsroom listen today so uh this should not be that hot uh provide them with an incentive

to take the factories that have been shut down in various places and convert them to uh building

missiles I think it's now clear if we have engaged you know in war in the Pacific we will need a

lot more missiles than we have and we will need a must fast the production line that we have

let's get ready now you know but again that would require strategic long term thinking

not a strength of the americans not a strength certainly not this administration but generally

of american politicians think also about um think also about the the inability of our leadership

to deal with things like we're going bankrupt because of medicare so security is going to go

bankrupt soon kick the can down the road that's our phone policy and that's our domestic policy

kick the can down the road that's all they can do

Evan says hope this twenty dollars will make you feel better about taking a long flight to uh

two or so in a budget airline yeah i mean it's farm-worsor to porto it's the only airline that has

a direct flight is a budget airline so i've flown budget airlines in europe and i have to have to

say if you buy a seat up front i think you can buy extra legroom they're not that bad uh

and uh it's worth it for for direct flight rather than having to change

airplanes or some airports and the hassle particularly if you have to fly through frankford

my least favorite airport in the world frankford germany i've i've talked about this in the past

Jeffery what would what should we know about allen greenspan oh god um all right you should know

that he was a um never got an economics degree got a masters uh he was a numbers guy very much

an empiricist somebody who focused on the empirics of stuff but but not very not not not not

really a principled thinker uh he was a associate with iron man men iron man i think in 1950s associate

within the sixties and seventies uh he he wrote essays for her which will ultimately include

any capitalism none known ideal but those were heavily edited by iron man so uh he he was heavily

influenced by her in those days one of the things that comes out of his autobiography is that

he believed that iron man was was was was was one of the first people that he'd ever met

that was smarter than him and that's what impressed him about her

what really impressed him was that she was smarter than him he hang around her during the sixties

in her circle um i don't know how frequently hot it out but he was always oh so interesting

in policy i mean he ran a consulting firm that basically did a lot of statistics and a lot of

policy work driven around data around statistics he was appointed by forward to be his chief economic

advisor um and even by then he he was very caught up in the politics of what was going on

he was very enamored with politics he really he thought it was cool that he he got to hang out

with the president and he got to do all these things while he was in the white house they literally

had these buttons you know uh uh was a kill inflation now something like that as if buttons

were kill inflation anyway he never really exhibited uh any great economic insight

as a practitioner um after iron man died in the 1980s now iron man was very happy with him at

Ford administration she liked Ford uh and she actually has a photo visiting the white house

meeting Ford and Alan Greenspan and there's a photo of the three of them um in the 80s Alan Greenspan

uh headed up a commission appointed by Ronald Reagan to review social security and make

recommendations on how to make it solvent and tragically and infuriatingly is that a word infuriatingly

the commissions recommendations were raised taxes and raised the retirement age I think

uh and that's always implemented it was an opportunity for Alan Greenspan to argue for

privatization uh just privatization would have been a big big deal but no very conventional

and and generally my view of Alan Greenspan is he flirted with Iron Man

he had this intellectual interest in Iron Man but at the end of the day he was there's one word to

capture conventional conventional um he uh then became chairman of the Fed in 1987

uh and uh was successful in calming markets when the market crashed in October 1987

basically was successful doing that by flooding the markets with liquidity with money

uh it became known as a greenspan put the idea that greenspan would never let um greenspan would

never let the markets go down too much he would do whatever it took to to recover to to save them

um then um what else can I say about greenspan he was a very conventional

uh fed reserve chairman and most of his tenure is considered pretty good as good as you can be

at the federal reserve uh from post the crash until 19 until 2001 but after 9-11 in 2002 in particular

uh he he he made a fatal mistake of lowering interest rates way lower than he should have

and that ultimately was the fundamental cause of the great financial crisis in 2008

so i think to a large extent he's responsible um he he did a lot of damage to capitalism

he he went in front of congress and blamed capitalism for the financial crisis

he uh during hearings he never in front of congress as chairman of the Fed

he prided himself on making statements that nobody understood that were unintelligible

and again we're always super conventional very very much along the lines of a standard Keynesian

so he had the ear of the world everybody respected him and admired him

and he failed to actually deliver a compelling pro liberty message and i will never forgive him for

that never forgive him for that he had an interesting relationship with Leonard Peacoff

um

you know when they were young they were both for a while unmarried and i met so called

um but if you read his autobiography which i did

it's very second handed um very second handed he loved the Hollywood parties

that he was invited to because he was chairman of the Fed he loved the White House he loved

the politics he loved the the people treating him with this incredible respect

he loved that adoration if you will thank you Jeffrey all right um

no let's call trump taffo trump always fights on to encourage him to see this war through

to its proper end regime change um i don't think he listens to show i don't think he cares what i

call him so yeah but yes let's go for always fight on always always always and this this one in

particular this one in particular i will be interestingly i will be meeting some people from

the administration we'll see personally i might even be presenting something about the war

in front of people from the administration you know in a couple of weeks uh that'll be

interesting i'll i'll let you know how it goes if i'm allowed to uh at a conference if i'm

allowed to comment on it i will but uh i expect uh well i know who else is on the program and who will

be in the audience and there'll be a number of people pretty senior uh from uh from the trump

administration there so it'll be interesting to see if i get any reception what kind of reception

if i do have a chance to speak to them what kind of reception i get

Tyler retic here from 2311 racing another checkered flag for the books time to celebrate with

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all right i want to remind you all that this program is funded by you and it exists because of

the funding from you and if no funding no existence so please consider getting us to our target we've

got ten minutes to raise sixty seven dollars sixty seven it's very doable um it would be great if

we did it i'm not even talking about the third hour but we might know you know we don't have a lot of

questions so it's going to be go pretty quickly here uh sixty seven that's three twenty dollar

questions one fifty dollar question and a bit so uh please consider getting us to the target

i think we've been short a little bit the last couple of days so let's get it this time and of

course you can ask a question i'll talk about anything you want me to talk about i'm sure the

topic you'd like me to talk about and they haven't and you can do that by just asking a question

even if it's two bucks and a sticker don't even come i have to come up with a question

how is it uh we're going back to the moon next Wednesday

cool are we literally they're going to be astronauts landing on the moon or just an unmanned

thing landing on the moon i don't know what that you know if it's not astronauts it's not really

going back like if it's a robot it doesn't count robots don't count right

it looks like a missile did hit an airfield inside arabia and damaged a number of American refueling

aircraft it is surprising to me how um

that the air defense systems that the Americans have deployed in the in the Gulf are not better than

they are not better than they are

um looks like the uh bushel nuclear power plant which is on the Gulf

um has been hit it it is one where you could get nuclear radiation and that could reach

quaint Bahrain Kata Saudi Arabia UAE uh so not sure what's going on there not sure who did that

um also cluster bombs hit Tel Aviv so cluster bombs almost impossible to stop because it breaks up

before you can intercept and then the litter bombs and it's very hard to hit the litter bombs

so a lot of damage i don't know if any casualties but uh Tel Aviv has been hit

so but you know again these uh the damage is it's pretty minor as compared to what's going on in

Iran Jeffrey thank you for the sticker really appreciate that Jeffrey uh thought criminal thought

criminal isn't it great to get money from a thought criminal thank you uh for the uh for the

10 british pounds really appreciate that gale thank you for the sticker uh we are now uh only

$29 away $29 away from hitting a goal 29 uh all right newly dan let's see newly dan tribalist

anti-conceptual because they seek the security and safety of others and they they thought freedom

scares them well thought scares them what if anything were motivating them to think for themselves

i think it's very difficult once you're a truly committed tribalist it's very difficult to

snap out of it it's very you know defeat tribal defeat like the Germans were tribal and then

they were crushed and then they had no choice they had no choice so uh

it's very difficult short of they tried really losing in some big significant substantial way

or or disappointing him or or but how do you get rid of that fear that drove them there anyway

that fear of thinking that's why once you descend in the tribal society very difficult to snap

out of it it's almost like you have to create a pro liberty tribe just kind of a contradiction

in terms any possible but yeah all right um michael says billionaire steven clubex said

money doesn't make you happy experiences make you happy memories make you happy is there some truth

to this well it is ryan c crest here there was a recent social media trend which consisted of

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join us for cool stuff daily as we take a quick look at science tech and the wait what stories

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future is happening fast and it's way too fun to miss that's kind of stupid I mean his statement

is kind of stupid because yeah there's a same money you just having money doesn't make you happy

but money buys you a lot of experiences if you have money you can experience things you can't

experience without money you can travel around the world you can see things that you've never

seen before you can create the memories and you know you can invest in values I mean here's the

point achieving values makes you happy achieving life affirming values makes you happy money doesn't

make you happy achieving life affirming values makes you happy but to achieve life affirming values

you need some money to eat to invest and if you want to go to the moon to go to the moon if that's a

value so money makes more values possible more experience is possible more memories possible

so no question that money in and of itself does not make you happy but money contributes to

your happiness in vast ways notice that only very rich people very very rich people will tell you

that money doesn't make you happy like the rest of us know oh no money is important

money is important in my happiness I need it

Dali and thank you for the sticker and Linda thank you for the sticker we're now only

$17 short $17 well let's shift this to the right there we go that's the right goal all right

not you have a job go with them how much can you bench press squat and deadlift God I don't know

I don't deadlift so I just don't deadlift because of my back so deadlifting is out I can I don't

know how much I can bench bench press you know I've never really you know like I you know do dumbbells

when I was like 15 years 20 years younger I could do about if if if it also depends on how many reps

right so I could do four reps of 95 pounds in each arm so 190 pounds of dumbbells which is harder

than just a straight a straight bench press bench press you could probably bench press more than

that what could I do today I can definitely do 15 both arms I don't try because I don't have a

trainer with me and to do anything above 40 pounds in each arm I would want somebody to spot me

I'm really scared of one of those weights falling on my head um

I'm getting I'm getting gas if you just talked about one or two reps that I could do

so only do 150 pounds maybe more right it's a squat again I don't know I haven't done like

full-on load me up with as much weight as you can and squat I can I can do many squats with 50 pounds

with a 50 pound dumbbell in my hand but I don't know what the max is it's pretty high would be my

gas when I you know yeah I don't I don't know I've never done that I've never put that kind of weight

on my back and and squatted again I would want somebody to uh I would want somebody to spot me

if I was doing something like that plus I mean I'm 60 I'm almost 65 right I'm almost 65 and

you know it you stop pushing weights that big that are free weights that are not

hey you can really hurt yourself so you've got to be careful so I'd rather not do my one rep max

right proto says do 50 push-ups right now I could do I can't do 50 push-ups in one go I can't

I could do 50 push-ups if you give me a rest um I could do

somewhere between 35 and 40 somewhere between 35 and 40 I could do straight push-ups 35 and 40

yeah 30 I could do for sure probably make it a 35 maybe on a good day if I'm well-rested I could make 40

in terms of leg press I don't know again I haven't pushed and it depends on the machine depends on

the angle and everything a few years ago I did like between 7 and 800 pounds

remember I'm old so I'm in pretty good shape I would take you guys on most of you guys on

even though I'm quite a bit older than you are all right I don't know why why we're talking

about this all right James how does progressive taxation not violate equal protection under the 14th

amendment well a lot of things don't don't you know do violate the 14th amendment it just nobody

considers that plus there's a so it's not even thought of when income tax was first introduced

and was rules constitutional only the only the very rich paid income tax only the top 10% paid

7% income tax nobody nobody tried to challenge that under the 14th amendment

you would think that it would qualify but it doesn't

uh hopper Campbell would you consider the growth of objectives and flat I don't know what you

mean does that mean the growth rates that is is a going 10% every year and the 10% is flat

that would still mean more people every year because the 10% of larger numbers is a growing number

of people so I don't know what exactly meant and I don't know how to measure it I don't know how to

figure that out so I don't know I don't know uh Len there is the Trump 3D Chess thing an

MBS interaction but what if it's just the professional US military presenting information and

Palantir andthropic tools having a force and plan ABCD like like life I mean all of that is

possible but you know I don't think Trump plays 3D chess okay I don't think he can play one

D chess he's just not smart and he's not strategic um what what if it was the military but if the

military's presenting it were four weeks in and we still don't have the assets in place they're

open up the the the states of Formos I would say that the military's failed

the military's failed so um yeah it's uh uh if they presented ABC and this is where we are

and we haven't opened up the states of Formos and we haven't attacked this civilian infrastructure

then they failed Daniel can you explain the full significance you think is associated with US

fighting with Israel yeah it's massive I mean US ignore you know refuse to fight with Israel

over and over and over again over the years even when it made sense for Israel to fight

the 91 Gulf War the the 2003 invasion of of uh of Iraq over and over again there were wars that

Israel had a stake in them and where the United States did not allow them to participate

so the the very fact that the United States is willing to work with the United Israel

on a war and and you know uh use their capabilities for US's advantage is the kind is a kind of

is a kind of alliance that we've just never seen between Israel and the United States and it's

very positive because Israel is it is is there only true ally of the United States in the entire

Middle East it's the only country dedicated to the same goals as the United States has

so it's it's it's it's it's the ultimate alliance and the fact that it was never done before

with signs of cowardice and fine signs the United States

cared too much and was willing to sacrifice its interests not to offend Saudi Arabia basically

and the fact that now Saudi Arabia is not that offended that means the Middle East has come a

long way and it means America the one thing Trump is good at is not caring about what people think

certain people think the elites and telling the Saudis to suck it in and and and and and get with the

program he's good at that

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D wellos if Trump withdraws early what do you think Israel will do what should they do well they

should continue for as long as they need to in order to achieve their aims

but it's likely that if Trump withdraws he will force them to withdraw as well

so Israel should continue doing it they should go back they haven't in recent days

done the kind of bombing that helps the Iranian civilians think that they're safe on the

basis in the arcg or gc so Israel could go back to doing that could providing

yes support for any demonstrations it stopped doing that because it feels like if Trump stops

it needs to achieve its other basically it's other goals like destroying the industrial

capabilities of Iran so it should continue doing that until it's achieved its goals

and if possible until there's regime change a yal if Iran's regime falls what do you think will

take power i don't know i don't know enough about internal Iranian politics but i think pretty much

if the regime falls which means if they're no longer an Islamic republic maybe your mild Islam or

your secular government whether it's a dictatorship or not whether the military takes over and

the military rules in some capacity i think whatever happens the new regime will want to be

successful economically and and it want to spur investments and to do all that it will it will

basically you know be peaceful particularly towards Israel

okay supposedly the Turkish Foreign Minister is confirming that US Iranian negotiations have

officially started i don't know what that means um no idea what that means so and it's coming

from zero heads which is not a particularly reliable source all right i could yeah

Daniel leftist often claimed the US is responsible for the Iranian revolution

can you give your five-minute rebuttal you should still do a whole show

i mean there's a sense in which that's true in a sense that the United States did not stand by the

Shah did not defend his regime and did not stand by his generals when they wanted to defend the

regime and in a sense allowed the the the the i told it to take over once the Shah left

and and basically the United States encouraged the military to stand down so in that sense yes

they they are somewhat responsible but in the border sense the responsibility is with the Shah

who abused his own people who behaved as an authoritarian touch chambers all kinds of things

that were that were really bad shouldn't have done um but you know beyond that it's the Iranian people

I mean the Iranian people and it's it's of all the people responsible for the Shah for the sorry

for the Ayatullah coming to power it was the left the left in Iran leftist students and the left

in Europe which was most supportive of Ayatullah to El Khomeini basically cultivated the left for

decade he he used Marxist language in his in his sermons he constantly talked about social justice

and he was bringing social justice and talked about um talked about all the you know the kind of

redistribution he was going to engage in and you know the the so the left in Iran joined up

with the Islamists to overthrow the regime and then once I told Khomeini was in power over

for years so he turned around and killed them all killed all the leftists

now the Shah himself you know he was bad but he wasn't that bad and the people who most opposed

the Shah were the leftists and the United States could have either easily supported the Shah

maybe even forced him to reform maybe forced him to engage in some kind of democratic transition

but by abandoning him they basically let the masses decide and the masses because of Khomeini was

so smart much smarter than Khomeini Khomeini was so smart and manipulative then he managed to

manipulate it so that he landed up on top that is my five minute version um I'd have to do quite

a bit of research to give you the longer version which which I will do at some point if somebody

wants to sponsor a whole show on the causes and consequences of the Iranian revolution

sponsorship of shows is the thousand dollars you can sponsor any topic you want up to you

and I will cover that I'll do the research I'll do all of that and and cover it's a thousand dollars

put topic we used to have a lot of people sponsoring show topics haven't had a show topic

sponsor in a while um you used to have quite a few of those so if you'd like let me know happy to

happy to happy to do it uh let's see how he says first we will bring freedom to Persia and then to

the moon I cannot wait for Artemis mission next Wednesday cool looking forward to it too uh Daniel

last have you ever eaten at suono de bourgeoiskin crackow I don't think so now hmm I'll have to try it

uh hey Iran thoughts on Jordan Badella he is obviously flawed with the European

rights seems better though not not hard these days than the U.S. right I don't know it's hard to tell

uh because they they disguise what they really think so well uh to what extent are they pro russia

it's hard to get a straight answer from them would they support you crane as much as

France has supported you crane up until now to what extent are they pro EU I I think Brexit is a

disaster for Britain I think frexit would be a disaster for France the EU is more good than bad

economically uh what else um you know did they really have a plan to deal with immigrate with

me Islam not that I can see I mean they wanted to put illegal immigrants okay but that's not the

problem the problem is radical Islam in France among French Muslims how do they gonna deal with that

is their plan I don't see one so I don't know then the anti-capitalism they're quite socialist

they were against pension reform which France needs desperately

so I don't know how good they really are and what are they stand for stateism more than anything

else so he I don't see most of the right wing parties I mean what was reform stand for in England

enough of economic liberty what is what is they if they stand for in Germany so I'm not that

excited uh great guys what was what was your favorite Brexit cereal I don't remember but I I mean

I haven't had real cereal in decades I mean I'm sure when I was a kid I had some

what did they call it I had conflicts I had uh all the standard ones um I can't remember having a

favorite uh snap crack or pop what was that rice crispies um today if I eat cereal it's a

no grain cereal like a cereal made from nuts and seeds and there's a bunch of them out there it's

hard to find one that is good and has very low sugar they they they they stick them with tons of

sugar or with like food dried food which is heavily concentrated with sugar and I don't like to

put too much sugar in my body so I mean particularly not if it's concentrated so um I don't eat

cereal anymore but I would if you could find me a breakfast if you could find me a cereal

with made of nuts and seeds primarily you know if there were oats there I'd be okay with it

but that had very little sugar ideally with no added sugar but also no sugar outcalls and

nothing else right nothing else so if you can find me a cereal like that um that would be great

but you know I I'll take recommendations take recommendations uh basically what I eat then

is nuts for breakfast um blueberry I I don't know if that's real blueberry yeah I mean blueberries

and nuts and seeds a lot of seeds that would make a great breakfast that's a lot of protein

that's healthy fats and that is fiber and uh the blueberries give you some antioxidants that's

ideal that's ideal breakfast cereal Stephen thank you for the sticker I appreciate it

I think I think friend Harper I think so I can't remember now but thank you guys

darling again all right thank yeah we got everybody uh thank you Stephen all right that is it

we'll call it a day I will be back tomorrow uh with a um you know we'll see what the topic is

I'll try to figure out a topic maybe something positive we need positivity in these days so

you want rules for life type uh topic tomorrow no listen what am I talking about scrap all that

tomorrow is AMA three p.m. East Coast time AMA Sunday I will do a kind of rules for life type show

all right Skylisten's Kashy Kashy Ego I'll check it out Kashy Ego

let me I'll check those out quick a harvest crunch all right guys thank you

um told the superchartis thank you for being here thank you for following me don't forget

to like the show before you go don't forget to subscribe if you're not a subscriber

and I will see you all tomorrow for the AMA for the AMA don't forget if you're 25 and above

join us in the uh on the panel bye everybody see you tomorrow

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vgw group void where prohibited by law 21 plus terms and conditions apply hi this is Alex

Cantrowitz I'm the host of big technology podcast a long time reporter and an on air contributor

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