Oracle Reports Results… And Mortgage Rates Top 7% 9/10/26

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1:01Live for the MazdaUSAq Market site in the heart of New York City's Times Square. This is Fast Money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Oracle, on the rise, here's the tech time jumping on its latest earnings report. But can the software company keep the gains coming this time? And what's the deeper read into the AI space? Plus a mortgage mess. Braintitting more than one year highs, home builders taking it on the chin. We dive into the housing trade, what it means for the consumer. Now for jumps and strong reviews of its new foldable phone, the fold. Copa Miner's sink on the right of New Terrors, and Kim Starbucks shares get recaffinated what the CEO had to say about the company's turnaround plans and whether it's time to buy the stock now. I'm Melissa Lee, company deal live from Studio B at the Mazdaq on the desk tonight. Tim Seymour. Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan and Guy Dami. We start off with tonight's big tech report that would be Oracle that's stock jumping. On better than expected results and cloud infrastructure revenues at more than doubled in the latest quarter. The call kicked off moments ago, Seymour Modi's got the details here. Seymour. And Melissa Oracle does say that customer demand for its AI cloud training services continues to grow faster than supply with more than $30 billion of new contracts in the first quarter.

2:06So the demand story is improving with its backlog, remaining performance obligations in the quarter, climbing to $664 billion that is up from $638 billion last quarter on financing. Oracle confirming no new plans to raise capital and that it has completed the previously announced $20 billion equity issuance program. So that is likely a sigh of relief for investors. We're still awaiting management to address how politics are at all impacting its data center pipeline. We are looking at shares right now up about 7% as investors refocus on the demand story. And still I would point out down solidly this year more comments as we get them, especially as we await comments from Larry Ellsson, the founder. All right, Seymour. Thank you. Keep us posted, Seymour Modi. And maybe the setup for the sock was perfect going into this report in that everybody was negative. I mean, nobody had a kind word to say about it. No, well, Seymour Grassle last night did his credit, but I'll say this, the free cash flow, which has been a disaster, wasn't good at 5.4 billion negative, but it was twice as

3:08good as the street was expecting if that makes sense, because the street was looking for negative $10 billion. So maybe they're getting in and lying there, margins were slightly better, but forget about Oracle for a second. What does this mean the overall software trade? And I will continue to say, I think the software trade can go higher. Oracle, regardless of what it does, IGV, I think, especially on the back of this print, is going to continue to do the grind higher. So I think the one thing she said that was so important was no new plans to raise capital now. And they continue to be included. They're offering. Right. Right. I wonder how long that now is. And then what I don't know what the catbex will actually be, right, last time they were sort of along with everybody else, surprising more and more to the upside. And so what I want to see with that is because the debt, we know, is an integral part of the story and the CDS which reflects higher concern about the debt, but at the moment, this is positive and I agree that setup was good. Yeah, I bearish sentiment. Yep, I believe the expected catbex for this fiscal year is $90 billion.

4:11Or so, yeah, so we'll see what number they come up with. I'm going to ultimately defer to diesel over here, but the setup and the options market was pretty crazy. I was even thinking about where the O in Timbo might see a call spread just to kind of measure my risk. I see O in Timbo. It is the O in Timbo. It's part of what's taken me down. I mean, it's no bedang. Let's put it that way. Not everything is. No. But the cloud revenue is fantastic. The cloud infrastructure up 121% as Simon noted is very strong. I don't think we ever questioned the demand. The question is can they fulfill it? And I think this is part of the story and also we get back to the capital market stuff which I don't know how they can continue without another raise. So I thought that the risk was must more skewed to the upside. I don't think they could have done a whole lot better than what they announced. And I'll just say I think this result is a little different and the way the options were being priced, I'm glad I didn't pay for calls because in fact, the upside was very, very expensive and in fact, I don't think you're getting rewarded here. Yeah, 12% implied move in either direction and just think about how far this stock has

5:15come from that quarter going back last September when they got that big open AI contract. And I think that we're not sitting here after earning season over the last two months it feels like it's been going on and on and on debating whether these companies are going to beat or not. It's just by how much, right? And then when you think about some of the strain that we've seen, I guess in the ecosystem and how they're financing these sorts of deals, that's fine that they say they're not raising anymore capital. Timbo over there is saying that when, it's going to happen again. This company has $167 billion in debt. And you think about the size of those contracts, fine, these RPOs keep getting bigger. There is no guarantee that they are going to be able to fulfill those obligations. And when you think about it from an execution standpoint, this is not a company I think that has a great track record doing this. So on the demand front, we know it. If SpaceX is selling XAI compute to their biggest competitors, which is anthropic and Google to some degree, right, then for all intents and purposes, like we get it. We get that there's a lot of demand, but at this stage of the cycle, if they can't deliver for open AI or open AI falters a bit and their demand, then you have this sort of, I don't

6:20know what you want to call it, this chain of events that ultimately will happen, but it's going to start with these companies, these heavily indebted companies. So, Ash, do we think about that compute in the backlog? Because I spoke to two analysts on closing bell over time, Gil Laurie of DA Davidson and Brent Thil Jeffries, and they're saying this is the one company that is building out, and it's not getting full credit for that backlog. Whereas everybody else, whether it be an EO cloud, which has no profitability or Microsoft, they are getting full credit for what they have. Well, I heard that interview, I'm talking about CoreWeeb specifically. Right. And NIVA is getting credit for theirs. I also think, I mean, maybe the debt isn't quite as bad as we think in that when they proceed with some of these projects that are further out, sometimes they do get paid some of that upfront or coincident. So that helps a little bit, but it's interesting. I think of Oracle as sort of the bell weather for the downside, but not so much for the upside, which maybe isn't fair to them. I don't own it.

7:21I don't know in position. But I mean, this bar was low enough, where this is good. It's an AI infrastructure company, I think, software company as well. But again, we talked about Larry. He pushed all the chips into the middle of the table. And you look at the margins were better than expected. Free cash flow was better than expected. I understand, it's probably another raise coming to balance sheet is problematic. But if you believe in the AI story and you think they're the epicenter of this whole infrastructure build, then you have to own this. I'm not convinced of it, by the way, but they're people that absolutely believe it, which makes Oracle very attractive. Look, they added 850 megawatts of capacity during the quarter. They certainly told you about more demand that's there. So I'm not sure what else they could say to summarize what I think I'm hearing both from Karen and even Diesel. And Guy, well, and Diesel. Diesel, Dan? Is Diesel Dan? Dan. Oh, yeah. Is there questions? I know. I know. I know. I was gone for a moment. I know. I know. It's not fair. It's probably not fair to folks at home, though, why we're at Collins Diesel.

8:23But there was a day that Dan started talking about Diesel prices. Oh, Diesel. And I was so excited for me to hear Dan in the energy space. That not only was it, you know, wow, Diesel, but he decided that Diesel Dan is an aggressive man for him. I got it. Were you making a point? My point is that I think that the company is now priced still and approved me situation. And there's nothing about the result today that changed that. And yet, I think they gave you everything you can. The price action to me is disappointing if you were expecting, if you're on the long side of this, there should have been a 15% pop, I think. You mentioned software in the software business on here. Is this the bell weather? I mean, is this the tail on software? Or is Adobe, which we also got? Yeah, which was a little bit of a different story, right? Or is it Salesforce? Or you can, I can write all four, you're right. I mean, they're all seemingly telling a different story. I guess my point in saying that is, I think the death of software that we were talking about six to nine months ago was probably maybe justified at the time, but in retrospect, widely exaggerated, which why I think IGV can continue to go higher. Or was it snowflake or service now?

9:25Right. Right. List goes on and on, as I was up for the upside. Right. Yeah. Well, all right. So if the CEO of Oracle was sitting next to Dario right after this report and Jim Kramer was interviewing him, like they did with Benioff, like you were gone, it was part of your thing when you were gone. But, you know, like they report this number, the stock was trading up 5% in the aftermarket, then they shoot to, you know, Benioff and Dario from, and then the stock went berserk. Like literally it went berserk. And you think about that. I think it's the association with how are we going to position ourselves if we are not, like, you know, AI native, like for all intents and purposes. A lot of these companies were built that way. Oracle was not. They have a lot of legacy business. This business is growing off a low base, which is why it's growing so fast. But, you know, I mean, listen, I'm not saying, you guys are right. There's a lot of leverage in this thing. If they ever get a couple quarters correct and they start doing some things you worry less about actually the balance sheet leverage, then the stock could easily go much higher. But for some reason, the fact that this stock has been left in the dust and it has, you know, yes, it's had a big balance. But relative to some of the other stories, I can't imagine some of the top analysts on

10:26the street would think that this is particularly interesting right here relative to some of the other ones. Yeah, a colorful one. What a video. From warrant to nights, our eyes as well as a broader tech trade. Let's bring in Dan Ives. He is a partner and senior managing director of Yorkville. Ives, Dan, it's always good to see you. Great to be here. Do you like Oracle here? Look, I do. In my view, when you think about the RPO and really the revenue that they have in the backlog, I think the street is almost assuming 50, 60% of that never happens. So then they were going to be able to build out the data center and the conversion of revenue. I think this was a big step in the right direction. And look, this is a penalty box stock. I mean, New York City cab drivers embarrassed in Oracle and they need to ultimately make these steps because it does speak to the broader software trade. When you think about Palantir, Snowflake, Salesforce, Carter Step in the right direction, now Oracle, you know, definitely better days ahead from the South Apocalypse that we saw even a few months ago. I'll ask you the following question.

11:27Is not necessarily all clear for software, but you got to get some tailwinds now on the back of a couple quarters. Adobe and some other names, notwithstanding. Well, also institutionally investors, they're caught off sides. So they're going to have to definitely adjust to owning more software because the software has really been a do not in Arizona. And when you think about earnings and what we've seen across the board, the data points are now lining up where I went this way. It's an all clear because Adobe is a good example. It's still a lot more with the chop, but definitely a huge step. And you're going to see software and they outperform as we go into the rest of the year. So Dan, what gets them out of the penalty box? I mean, because again, I thought these numbers were good enough, especially with the assignment. What do they have to do? Look, rumors and built in a day. So they're going to have to show a few more quarters because the investors, going back to a Nathan talked about, you know, when you had the open AI of $300 billion, now they want to make sure these data centers are going to give it built. So I think they did a great job in the conference, columns, bleak, shell-on-like performance terms of what they're sort of navigating.

12:28But now they got to show it a few more quarters. And the streets are not going to give them crap for just one quarter. So if we don't really think of Oracle as a proxy necessarily, what would be? Who would be? Who's the most important? Is it Bidia or someone else at this point? Yeah, I think from a software perspective, I think what you're saying. So the whole AI, any part of the way. Yeah. So I think the biggest dynamic change was from pound here to snowflake, because that really shows that software trades now on, the use case that are starting to happen, the second third fourth derivative. But it starts and ends with the Godfather of AI, Jensen and Vidia. They have the best perch. And I think when you actually see what demands it applies, it's playing out. Now you're going to start to see second third fourth derivatives play out across software, infrastructure, cyber security. Go back cyber security when you look at CrowdShark, Pal Out, those good examples. Hey, so Dan, the socks really had that move, right? It doubled from, I want to say, mid spring to the end of Q2 in the end of June. It's really chilled out. It's down about 20%.

13:28It's really kind of stuck in the mud here, but we just mentioned in Vidia. It really did find its way back towards those prior highs. And when I think about what's going on here, that bifurcation doesn't make me more bullish about semis. How are you thinking about semis? Listen, I think that a lot of folks who've been on this in Vidia train, Karen, never gotten off of it. You've been on that same way. But it seems like right now, it seems to be a safer place to be than companies like AMD or Intel right now, given where their positioning is relative to trying to take on it. Yeah, no doubt. And I think you're going to see more investors meet that sort of bet. The reality is the man's spy today in chips, based on what we see in Asia is 13 to 1, terms of demand spy. So that's still over a fact. Of course not just in Vidia, it's going to be Intel. It's going to be AMD. And I think what you see on the semi side, and there's always a question, could semis and software, can they actually both outperform? I think part of what you're seeing now, the hyperscalers from Microsoft really being front and center, you've seen a lot more money rotating to that.

14:28But you put it all together, we're in the third inning of the AI revolution trade, but they're not all winners. I think Adobe is a good example one. They're going to have to prove it more and more. But it's software now. It will call it somewhere between a green, a light green relative to how investors are going to tell you your jack. Kind of like this. It doesn't say a bright, soft one. Now investors feel more than all queer, you can go out for software. Like a curving green. It's not that easy. It's not that easy. It's like a lime green actually. Dan, good to see you. Thank you. Dan is of Yorkville lives. I like that name. What Yorkville lives? Yeah, it's clever. Yeah. Thank you. From the meantime, oil prices spiking again today. With WTI crew now riding an eight day winning streak, topping $103 a barrel. The highest since mid-May diesel prices hit $6 a gallon for the first time ever, Dan. According to gas buddy, then we've been sparring renewed. Yeah, diesel. And sending yields higher as well. Short term rates jumping 15 basis points, benchmark 10 year.

15:28Closing back on 5% the highest since October 2023. 30 year yields hitting their highest since 2007. All that amid today's $22 billion bond auction in the Treasury is closely watched by back operation. CNBC's Rick Santelli joins us now with all the details. Rick. Wow, that's a long list. I'll try to whittle it down a little bit. Obviously, oil is the story. Once again, it's the war. It's not the wars. Look at the week to date of tens of oil. Boy, they're right on top of each other. And if you look at tens as you just pointed out, Melissa Lee, highest yield close since the fall of 2023. For two years, it's basically July of 2024. And if we look at what's going on globally, and this is so important. If you look at bond yields, they're fresh 17 year highs of 3.5%. You look at the French Oat, 444 Fresh 18 year high. You look at the UK Gill, 537, a fresh 19 year high.

16:30We have fed probabilities a little bit over 70% for a hike next Wednesday. And of course, between now and then we have CPI tomorrow. A couple of things I want to hit that are super important. First of all, if you look at what happened with the auctions this week, honestly, I've been looking at auctions for a long time. Back to back 10 and 30 years, A pluses were my grades. Boy, the smallest take down by dealers in a 30 year auction, highest yields in a 30 year auction since 01. I mean, these were just stellar over the top auction dynamics I have ever seen. And I have very little doubt that Treasury Secretary bests it made a lot of phone calls, but it doesn't matter. Very solid performance. And as for the buyback, all the headlines are right. But for all the wrong reasons, they're saying, I buyback disappoints. It disappointed for a very good reason. When you have a coupon auction, a regular auction, you have a bid to cover. When you have a reverse auction or a buyback,

17:32you have an offer to cover. And how many offers where there are? 10.5 billion. How much did they buy the government? 5.19 billion. Take the 10.5 divided by 5.19. 2.02 is your offer to cover. That is weak by any standards. Buybacks are reverse auctions. The range for kind of averages, offer to cover of 2.5 to 3. So lack of sellers is a good reason to disappoint the buyback, because they're not selling most likely, because they rather hold the paper back to you. Very good point there, Rick. I'm wondering, we didn't even mention PPI today. And in terms of the setup of the bond market today, going into CPI, giving the rise and yields, if we get a hotter print, how does that play out? Well, I think right before we get the print, I would not be at all surprised to be sitting right at 5%.

18:33I think 5% is a fate of complete. I think today's PPI, just because it's as expected. And it basically was. It was still warm to hot. These numbers are big on the year over year. I think going into CPI, you really want to watch the year over year numbers. I don't know that we're going to see a whole lot of cooling, but it only would take a little bit of cooling to move those Fed fund percentages rather dramatically. So everybody really needs to pay attention. And ultimately, I still think that when you look at what's going on overseas with their rates, the dynamics overseas are clear. These countries like France and Germany, they're going to have to stimulate their economies. And that's going to mean issuing more debt. The story just goes on and on to continue to push up rates. I have two big resistance levels to pay attention to 5.17% and 5.29% above the market in tens. Rick, we can't avoid the yields around the world. I totally agree with that. And you dove in deep as we expect you to on the technicals

19:35of the bond market. But isn't this really about oil prices that have given us this last surge? And if you thought that oil was going back to $80, do you think we would be talking about this conversation about treasuries? You know, I'll tell you what. No, I think the way we went up from February 28th, just basically a 45 degree line on the charts the day the war began, I am fairly confident when the war ends that they're going to go back down. And I think the break evens make that argument. But there's a big asterisk here. It's going on too long. And if it keeps going on too long, all those comments I just made are going to get watered down a bit. And we're going to get seepage into actual inflation because of the long term implications of what's going on in the mid-East and how it's affecting prices around the world. Rick, good to see you. Thank you very much, Rick. Santa Elis, it's always nice to have him at 5 o'clock. See him early in the morning. It's nice to have him here at 5. We really get him at 5. Yeah. When he can do it as a big day, of course,

20:36he makes himself available. We were talking about, to Greg Dacco yesterday, he was talking about just sort of the longer inflation sits on us, the bigger the impact is. And so here we are to Rick's point. It's been the war's been going on for a long time. And even prior to that, inflation has been high. And the president and the people in the administration have now acknowledged that. And I think I heard it over the last couple of days. It will probably last through the mid-term elections. I think something that the market has been pricing out, but now has been acknowledged by people that matter. So yeah, the longer this lasts, the worse it's going to get. But I think we've been steadfast. And Tim is right, look, if crude oil prices weren't where they are now, would we be here? Probably not, but the trajectory was going there regardless, in my opinion. And I still think yields continue to grind higher. You're saying the trajectory of yield to the trajectory of the people in the field? Yes, I agree. Well, when inflation is there for a while, the expectation of further inflation is just embedded there. I still think, though, that Trump cannot stomach, certainly oil above par for West Texas.

21:38Well, anywhere, but in 107 and 102 would change. I don't know exactly where they close. But I do think he's going to try to do something to materially bring that down before the midterms. Just really quickly, you know, on oil, for all the ebb and flow of oil prices, we're within 9% of a closing high for all time during the war. Like, it feels like, wow, oil prices aren't really back to where they were back in April. But guess what? I mean, we're within. And now all we've heard about for months is the depletion of supplies and inventory and Saudi today. Again, they announced that they produced 6.3 barrels in 6.3 million barrels in August. And that's down 26% from where they were in July. And that number's probably going down even more in September. So you can't tell me that the pressure on the oil market, which is now about to take out those old highs, which we're not even really talking about. It almost seems like, oh, oil prices have gotten prepped up again. The other thing I just think is very important is that the short end of the curve on some levels is even more important than the long end of the curve. Because we've got 9 trillion, of 40 trillion, to refinance in the next 12 months.

22:39And they're trying to, like, front load the short end to actually minimize the borrowing costs. And meanwhile, the short end over the last two days has outperformed in terms of yields going higher than the long end. And that's something to pay attention to. Yeah, just say this, you know, Karen, when you say what the administration wants, I feel like this is so different right now than the last time we were at 495. You know, I think the markets, whoever the markets are, at least in the bond market, they see the whites of their eyes. And I think they think that we are stuck. If they look at the way that the administration's been acting about this war for six months, they look at the way the Treasury Secretary, you look at wars who's kind of keeping it cool. Like, you know, I mean, we'll see what happens next week. I just, like, I think about markets, I go back for the last couple of decades. This is a tricky situation. I don't mean like things are going to go, hey, why are we going to crash or anything like that? But I think that there are people that would like to have control of these markets and they are not in control. And I think that's where like maybe accidents happen. I'm talking about oil though. Well, oil and yields, but I mean, like, look at the way they're moving. And, you know, and by the way, with the Vixit 17 and the stock market 2% off, it's all time highs. The last time we saw 495 and the 10 year back in mid 23,

23:42the S&P was 4,000. You know what I mean? Like, we're close to the KISS in, you know, 8,000. And a lot of that move that we know in the equity markets has been fueled by one trade that actually has implications on inflation. Yeals are going to be playing a more important role in that. We're just talking about Oracle that sort of thing. So a lot of these things are probably more connected than we probably think. I'm sure Rickson tell you could figure it out for us though. Coming up, Paging Dr. Copper, the record run in the industrial metals, taking a breather today. The impact it's having on the metal miners plus a folding to follow up shares of Apple bouncing after its iPhone event. Yesterday, why investors are biting in on the big reveal now? Don't go anywhere fast when he's back in two. Did you know that Neurosymbolic AI can help your business find new ways to make money? EY Parthenon is the only one offering this groundbreaking growth platform. Neurosymbolic AI analyzes hundreds of millions of data points to reveal new growth strategies. EY Parthenon teams deploy this innovation

24:45so you can uncover hidden value and scale beyond existing boundaries. Want to know what Neurosymbolic AI can do for your business? Contact EY Parthenon today, solutions that work in practice, not just on paper. That feeling when you're trying to build your credit. And it's like over and over again. Good news. Chase Credit Journey can help you with a personalized score improvement plan provided by Experian. So when you still need that credit built, you have the guidance you need. You can even get a Chase Secure Banking account with no monthly service fee if you're 17 to 24 years old. Hallelujah. This tool is for education purposes. It doesn't guarantee you'll reach your credit score goal. The score you receive uses Vantage score 3.0 model and may not be the model used by Lenders, member FDIC. Never bet against American grit or American energy. Through innovation, venture global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time.

25:46So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's venture global. That's unstoppable energy. Welcome back to Fast Money, co-opersing its worst days since July, 2025, tumbling more than 5%. After hitting a record yesterday, the White House reportedly reconsidering plan copper tariffs ahead of the midterms. The country's largest copper miner, free port mac morning, dropping almost 7%. CEO Kathleen Quirk joined in closing by a love of time earlier for an exclusive interview. At free port, in terms of the tariffs, we're watching it really what we're looking at for the long term for our investments is the overall supply and demand fundamentals, which really look compelling for the copper markets. Insatiable demand, whether it be from power grids, EVs, but of course the AI build out requires a lot of growth. 100% and I'll say we met off camera. She's a huge fast money fan. She watches us religiously, thank you.

26:47But all her points are the points we've been making to supply and demand and balances and copper. It's a real thing. Tim's been talking about it for years and until today at least, it's been manifesting itself into price, but one day it's not a trend make and I think you buy these names on the weakness. Yeah, I think that's a great headline and it's probably right and that headline where the White House has challenges on all sides with higher copper prices and goes back to where we were just in the last block, which is that there are dynamics that are feeding through to inflation that are very unpopular in certain parts of the country and on main street. So this is the story of the day, but as Guy said, this is an opportunity to buy this. This is a multi-year cycle. This isn't just something that's part of a trade. It's not just data centers. This is what we're seeing with the commodity curve. You could go all the way into raw commodities, CRB-R, and you could look at a lot of different commodities, especially in the metal space, where we have a shortage that are strategically important to this country and it's a trade that's going to, I think, continue for multiple years. So only integrated miners on a free port

27:49and free port, which has run so differently than it was 10 years ago, I think you can stay long there too. And then going the opposite way from raw materials, if you go down sort of the chain, if this is very good in terms of the drop in copper prices for industrials, I mean, a train, a carrier, all these guys, they feed into data centers, but they also use a lot of copper for other uses also, the equipment. It's one day though of what is one day. Off the fight also, but there is no tariffs. That is helpful. I was looking at Corning to the extent that any of this is switched to fiber optic cable from, if there is, I don't know how realistic or near term that would be, then I sort of find that interesting. Corning. There's a lot more fast one day to come. Here's what's coming up next. Apple shares doing anything but folding. The tech giant seeing some granny smith gains a day after its big product event. How much can the folding iPhone boost sales and the stock plus a hit to housing, mortgage rates topping a key level,

28:51the impact on builders and on potential home buyers. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this. That feeling when you check your bank account and your paychecks days away. And of course, your calendar's all good news with Chase Secure Banking, your direct deposit hits your bank account up to two days faster. So when your friends are like, and your bills go, you have the peace your deposit brings. And the best part, there's no monthly service fee for 17 to 24 year olds. Thanks to Chase Secure Banking. For Chase Secure checking on eligible direct deposits, maybe credit it up to two business days early, depending on when the payer submits the transaction. Member FDIC. Adventure global. We think about what can be done. Not what's usually done. Through innovation, venture global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States,

29:53but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time. So while others are busy talking, we're busy building that's venture global. That's unstoppable energy. There is so much NFL on ESPN right now. Monday night football, plus pregame and postgame. NFL live NFL prime time. Everything you need to stay on top of every game every week. Unbelievable. And now NFL network is on the ESPN app. More football, more coverage, more ways to watch. Football's on. All season long on ESPN and streaming on the ESPN. Welcome back to fast one. The new iPhone may fold, but the stock sure didn't at least not today. Shares of Apple bouncing over 3.5% leading the mag 7. Earlier reviews of the foldable device, largely positive Morgan Stanley analyst Eric Wood during noting that even with a $2,000 starting price, the duo is still cheaper than some feared.

30:54While Melius has been right, this pointed to the phone's thinner profile saying this foldable, ono-zempick is going to be a hit. Well, as our chief GLP correspondent here, I can tell you that I'm not by in version 1, but I'll buy version 2 or 3. And I think it's odd. Listen, this is one for, I think those early adopters and I'll geeked up. I know guy was thinking about waiting online. No, I am. But I want to give Gene Munster a shout out, because he was on last night with us. And initial reaction, he's like, this is going to be big for the stock. And he meant, I think near term, and the stock, what did they do? I think they did. I think near term, and the stock, what did they do today? It massively outperformed. I go back to when they introduced Apple Intelligence. Remember that? It was June of 2024. Gene was on with us. The news just got out there. Of course, you know, Ray Light guy over here. I was like, I'm not buying it. Stock went up 20% in a straight line over the next month. And so investors, I think his point is, they're looking for inflection points about what is the next thing. And it doesn't have to be something good monot, or model right now,

31:54into your numbers for the next year. Part of today's bounce, I felt a little defensive, though. In the sea of tech weakness, right? Apple is the ultimate defensive play. I think it's absolutely a stock that rallies on a day like today, and it could have been the other way. I've said, I think this is a product release that's extremely important, even though no one was expecting it to. And I will be sleeping. I mean, I've got this thing. I don't think we can zoom in on it. But I mean, this thing is about to die. That's a beauty. It's barely still holding on. Do you take on that? I mean, I almost didn't make it through the weekend. And I'm just, so I have to get that foldable. And I can't get that foldable. You're not getting that foldable. I'm going to just get a regular phone. No, no, but I want the foldable, man. I mean, it's time for me. Of course you do. It's time for me. So I'm long Apple, and I'm not selling Apple, and I understand the multiple gets a little bit more egregious. But I do think that Apple has yet to really play their card, and in fact, it may that they are, be that they're not playing cards. As we've said, they got to lose Siri. They've got to change the whole dynamic around the relationship we have with the phone and AI.

32:55And I think they're going to. I think real quick, I think go home in this high on the street, maybe not, but at 360. And they may, you know, I'm looking all the analysts, and everybody's maintaining their price target. So Tim and Karen have been spot on on this. Copy, Tim. I get, we have Pfizer. We do share Pfizer. Thank you. It's a nice place to be. I'm happy about Pfizer. Coming up, the home buying bomber, mortgage is topping 7% to fix right 30 year. For the first time in over a year, well, the surge keep would be buyers out of the market. How to trade the homebuilders, heading into fall. Fast money is back in tune. Welcome back to fast money. Socks falling for a fourth straight day as treasury yields and oil continue to surge. The Dow down more than 300 points. S&P and Nasak both shedding more than half a percent in the Nasak 100, falling more than a percent. Shares of United rentals falling nearly 4% today. Amelies at JP Morgan, downgrading the equipment maker to neutral from overweight, saying a slowdown in M&A could dampen growth. URI shares still up more than 20% this year.

33:55Some more after our action shares of Adobe lower, despite topping earnings and revenue estimates, the company posting lighter than expected Q4 guidance. And R.A. shares jumping after reporting better than expected revenues, gross margins also coming in ahead of estimates. Karen, I got to go to you on URI. I mean, come on. Jamie, why do you have to do me like that? You got your rentals from overweight to neutral. I mean, maybe that is the case. But however, I mean, the balance sheet is in great shape here. So I think they can still do acquisition. It hasn't been cheap for a while. But I'm hanging on to it. Right. Sticking with the housing, the average 30 year fixed mortgage rate climbing above 7% for the first time since May 2025. The move taking a bite out of home builder stocks like Linar, Maritage and DR Horton, as well as home improvement stocks, Home Depot and Lowe's. Diana Oleg joins us here with more on all things housing. Diana. Melissa, stocks are just not loving the headlines in housing today. Like you said, the average rate on the 30 year fixed hits 7.07%.

34:57According to mortgage news daily, we haven't seen a seven handle since May 21st of 2025. That, as you said, thanks to oil prices moving higher. And in fact, we've seen rates now up 18 basis points just this week. But that's nothing compared to the rise we've seen since the start of the Iran War, which came one day after rates had touched the 5% range. Now, the home building ETF ITB was already down this morning on the drop in existing home sales. The headline in that report wasn't so much the drop, which did come in along expectations. But the fact that the supply of homes for sale hit the highest level in over a decade. As a result, names like Linar, Pulti, DR Horton, all down on the day. These stocks have just been battered since mid-July when mortgage rates really took off again, following that first surge in March at the start of the war. And just for comparison, on the median priced home, if you're a buyer with 20% down, your monthly payment of principal and interest today would be about 250 bucks more than it was back on March 1st. Melissa, our analyst expecting just a screeching halt in the housing market with 7% cross at this point.

36:03I mean, look, it's not a screeching halt because some people do need to move. There are life events that force you to move, and there are a lot of sellers out there who'd like to take advantage of all that home equity they have and put their homes on the market. So I think it's all going to be on the higher end, which is where most of the action has been. You see names like Tolbrother still doing very well. Their median price is over a million dollars. They're not that mortgage dependent, more stock market dependent. So higher end of the market is up. That is the only section. In fact, the realtor report said today that homes priced above one million dollars were the only sales figures that were up compared with the year ago. Everything below that was down. Diana, thank you. Diana Olick. Going back to the conversation we had with Berksont Halleat at the beginning of the show in Treasury Secretary Besant, that headline of 7% crossing 7% on 30 or fixed mortgage has got to just be under the administration's skin at this point. I mean, all their efforts for affordability, this is just, you know, that's- And I don't know what they can do to fix- I mean, it's clear they're focused on it. I don't know what-

37:03There's no quick fix here. And I think we've been saying for quite some time. As important as interest rates are to the home building sector, I get it and they continue to go higher. There are other factors to work here as well, because just look at how poorly home depot's traded now. For the last couple of years and as Diana just correctly said, all home builders stocks are not created equal. But DHI, for example, they made their high in September of 2024. PULTY HOMES has been rolling over. Tull brothers hanging in there, but I think they're all under pressure here, Mel. Home Depot is to me on some level really the ground zero stock, because that's the one that I think. We know the cyclicality, we know what have been going on in the relationship between mortgage rates and housing sales. Existing home sales, I mean, that's a trend that's not a good one. And it's going to continue. I think to go lower. But Home Depot, I actually nibbled a little bit for a couple accounts today. I think this is a place where you can feel really comfortable owning it. And I do think it's a case where you are starting to see some of the uncertainty. A lot of it's just been around tear free funds and how much of this has actually been something that's allowed them to hold it together.

38:04And will that really give some ground? But I don't think so. I think this is such a strong franchise. I think their professional business is also kind of that rudder that keeps things on track. Do you feel the same way? And you know, diesel down would say that diesel prices at some. At a handful of stations in California, it's above $9.99. I mean, like it's, it would go to 10 except they don't have enough digits on their display to go to 10. Yes, that's not a great, that's not a great thing. But I mean, those are all costs that even a Home Depot will still bear, yeah, exactly. Yes, they have to. I mean, the last quarter, all of these, this condition existed going into the last quarter as well, right? I mean, we have a big number of sales. This is just a, even another leg down, Home Depot did seem to handle it pretty well. It's interesting that we were talking about this on the noon call about, all right, our parents had mortgages that were 14, 50%. Yeah, right. And that, and a 7% mortgage at that time was, okay, well, that's good. You have a 7% mortgage. How is it that over, if you look back over, you know, 50 years, that's really, we're not in a, but we're not in a place that prevents home transactions.

39:10And yet, here we are because of this quirk from, you know, coronavirus and everyone having a 3% mortgage. I think you bought them ticked, I did. Yeah, nice work. But I'm not, it's not good for Zillow. I was lucky. I was lucky. I was lucky. I was so, so were a lot of people. Make your own luck there, Melissa. I'm going to jump away. Do you want to make a point here? Yeah. You guys crushed it. It's not good for Zillow. I can tell you that. And I do have exposure there. Coming up, first down under, first down down under. Yeah, and I felt making history with its first ever regular season game in Australia. We'll get the details on the least global growth and how one streamer is making a big bet on tonight's game. Details and fast money returns. Welcome back to fast money. Are you ready for some football? Three. I'm going to take that football cake off the season way down under tonight with the Rams and 49ers taking the field in Melbourne, Australia.

40:10Netflix, streaming the action starting at 8.35 PM Eastern. The company's big bet on live sports. Here with the details, Alex Sherman. Hey, Alex. Hey, Melissa, I come to you from the future. Yes, it is Friday morning here in Melbourne. I'm standing on top of the roof of the Pullman East Melbourne hotel. Just over my right shoulder is the MCG, the Melbourne cricket ground, the famed stadium. It seats 100,000 people where tonight in the US, the San Francisco 49ers played the Los Angeles Rams. In the first ever game in Australia, this is part of the NFL's big expansion plan. Nine international games this year. Commissioner Roger Gidell has said he wants 16 and I caught up with the man himself. He is in Melbourne to watch this game. And in fact, I spoke to him on the field at the MCG. And we talked about a bunch of different things, including the rising valuations of all of these NFL teams.

41:13Just this week CNBC is out with its valuations. The average NFL team rose 35% from just a year ago. I asked Commissioner Gidell, are you going to need to raise the cap on private equity investment over 10%? That's the current cap. Only 10% of a team can be owned by a PE firm. But are the prices just getting so out of whack that you may need to raise that cap? Here's what he said. We're not even close to the capacity of the PE caps on the individual basis or collectively. So that's not a reason to do it. And we've heard for decades, the cost of these franchises are getting more and more and less and less buyers. We're not seeing that. The league is incredibly healthy. There's a lot of people who want to invest in sports, particularly NFL. And that's great for us right now. And I think that's really a reflection. The strength of the league. And there are a lot of people who want to invest in sports on a global basis.

42:14I think that's a reflection of the values. The average NFL franchise valued at 10.4 billion dollars. And as you mentioned, tonight's game, which starts in about three hours, airs globally on Netflix. It's one of five NFL games that will air on Netflix this season. Melissa. By the way, it's 749 Friday morning or so he is coming from the future tomorrow. God, then he knows the well game 12 hours of live coverage. Alex, thank you. Enjoy the game. And we know he's already had a vision might and sandwich. Right. But nine games international. Goodell 116. That's a lot. Well, I for one think the NFL is jumping the shark here. I think having a game on every night of the week or seemingly by the end of the season, you'll have had one every night. But Tuesday, I believe I you know, I there's no disputing what's going on with franchise values. And for Netflix, I think they have the most to gain here.

43:18So I do think this is important for them to get into sports. I have they have the balance sheet. They have the reach and they have the audience. So I like it for Netflix NFL. I'd rather I'd rather listen to some in excess some AC DC. I know you're a big men at work fan. I'm not Melissa. I know. I know. I suspect coming up from burrito. So brew how Brian Nichols time at Starbucks has perked up the coffee chain over the past two years. And what do you see now for the consumer more fast money? Do you not miss our big interview with Goldman Sachs chairman and CEO David Solomon on the 25th anniversary of 9-11. He's receiving the fire commissioners humanitarian award in next week's FDNY Foundation dinner will get his take on that honor, the solemn milestone and much more right here on fast money. That is tomorrow. Meantime. Starbucks CEO Brian Nichol marking two years at the helm of the coffee giant shares have climbed 9% since he took over and are up nearly 30% since the initial announcement that he was coming on board.

44:23Here's what you have to say about the company's latest moves over the last few years. We made a lot of moves around investing in both our partners as well as the coffee houses through this uplift program and then made a bunch of additional changes on the standards and how we ensure people got great craft. Got their orders in a timely fashion and I got to give our lot of credit they embraced the back to Starbucks program and as a result Starbucks is back. Is it Tim? It isn't some way. I think first of all the Mojo is back. I think the engagement with the customer. I can tell you my buddy won at the 73rd street Starbucks and my neighborhood is all engaging. I think you've got a case where the margin story has been very resilient and they've also been price sensitive. They've been places where believe it or not they've actually been aware that maybe they don't want to be charging in North of 450 for a drip coffee. I think there's been a lot of balance between understanding marketing. It's still to me that mermaid is one of the great brands in the world and I think it's something that you buy on weakness.

45:27This track record doesn't look as great as it obviously really is because before he actually took the job the stock was up so much but it is proof that I was somewhat skeptical that he could do as well as he did. It makes you wonder what I don't know one day what's his next step where would that be because I didn't think he would leave Chipotle. I was shocked when they got him but good for them. Up next final traits. I'm for the final train. Timbo. If you're not aware of the first three letters of Netflix or NFL. I think you're going to say the first three letters of Timbo or T.I.M. That's why it's not going in there. Sure. Alright, now for the current. Yeah, so if you want to diversify away from the A.I. train somewhat I really like letter C.

46:31These little damn. These little, you know what? First of all, I feel the same way actually about diversifying away from the A.I. train. That would be staying away from Oracle. Guys. That will be tuned into tonight's football game for most Australia. Okay, send anybody cares. Like she was last night. But I think Z-scaler, I think the sell-off might be over Melissa. Thank you for watching Fast Money. And see you back here tomorrow on Fast or David's Cell, a medical insects. Mad Money Starts right now. All opinions expressed by the Fast Money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC or its parent company or affiliates and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Fast Money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such.

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