OVERREACTION: Cincinnati Reds Can Still WIN Without Hunter Greene – Why the NL Central Should WORRY

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Everyone is over reacting to the Hunter Green injury because the Reds are still contenders

for the NL Central, even without him.

You are Lockdown Reds, your daily Cincinnati Reds Podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast

Network, your team every day.

I'm Stephen Offenbaker, he's Jeff Carr, and today's Lockdown Reds Podcast is brought

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On today's show a little bit later, we're going to talk about Reese Hines and what if anything

he can do to reinsert himself into the chat, to get back into the conversation, spoiler alert,

it's going to take a lot.

We're also going to talk about the number of Cincinnati Reds that are in Lockdown's first

ever top 100, a fun new exercise that we undertook here on the Lockdown Podcast Network.

We're going to tell you which Reds made the cut, but where we are going to start is not

with Jeff Carr's overreactions because it's normally that's where we start, but where

we are going to start is with everybody else overreacting about the impact of Hunter

Green starting the season delayed and what that means for the Reds as they contend for

the playoffs and for the division here in 2026.

And Jeff, that's exactly where the conversation begins is it truly a massive impact because

there are some people out there, some national talking heads, some sportsbooks, Fandall being

one of them, our guys Fandall, we love you.

Thanks for being a sponsor all the time here on Lockdown Reds, but I think they've even

overreacted a little bit of the impacts Hunter Green being delayed.

They have cut down the Reds over under from 82 and a half to 80 and a half.

Are you serious?

I really mashed that over.

It's free money.

Like I feel like people have looked at Hunter Green and said he is the only thing holding

this starting rotation together, ain't happening because this starting rotation is super deep.

There's a chance he can be replaced as the Reds ace by a number of guys this season if

he doesn't pitch at all.

And there's a chance that the Reds can still go just as far if not even further than where

we expected them to go even with this injury.

I think it's crazy that people were doubting them and putting the pirates ahead of them

in playoff odds and things like that with Hunter Green.

Now people are going to cut those playoff odds down because they don't know and drab it.

They don't know Nicoladolo.

They don't know chase burns and rep louder and we do and we want to tell you like we talked

a lot about the starting rotation yesterday Steve and why we still think it is super good

even without Hunter Green.

But I think the other part of this is the improvement that the lineup is about to undergo.

He talked about the addition of a Eugenio Suarez a nauseam after the Reds signed him at the

beginning of the month of February.

But when it comes to how this lineup moves, I mean, consider who replaces who in this.

There are a lot of guys that are now going to be where they are and they are in much better

spots than the guys who were there last year.

That's a fun exercise is who's replacing who.

I mean, think about lineup production.

That's basically Geno replaces Gavin Luxe.

That's a huge tremendous upgrade.

Think about South Stewart replacing the at bats that went to Santiago Espanol.

That is a gigantic upgrade.

And if South does almost nothing, it's a gigantic upgrade.

So that is a tremendous upgrade.

Elite Dala Cruz with two legs replaces Ellie Dala Cruz with one leg.

That is a tremendous upgrade.

And Matt McLean anything better than zero wins above replacement, which is what he was

last season with his struggles coming back from a year long injury.

Anything above zero wins above replacement is a tremendous upgrade in this lineup.

That's already listed.

Jeff, you know, we kicked around the idea of having a bold prediction segment in the

show and decided against it.

We're going to talk about the top 100 instead.

But I'm just going to throw one out there anyway.

The Cincinnati Reds could have three position players that are all stars this year in

Ellie Dala Cruz, Matt McLean and Ayuhaneo Suarez.

And that's before we even talk about the pitching.

So for a fan duel, who I really respect those guys, they get a lot of things right.

They've got this one dead rum because if you believe that the Reds are going to be below

500, even without Hunter Green, if you believe that, it's crazy talk.

The Reds are going to be above 500.

It's a free beat.

It is a freebie.

Throw some money at that if you play on fan duel because it is a give me above 500.

I still think they match up well with everyone in the division, too, even without Hunter

Green.

Andrew Abbott matches up well with the best pitchers on any of the teams.

The biggest difference would be Paul Schienz against Andrew Abbott.

But when you look at the Cubs, and I think show to Imanaga is still their ace.

I pick Andrew Abbott over that.

You've got Brandon Woodruff with the Brewers.

Is he healthy?

That's going to be the big question.

If he is healthy, that might be a push.

That might be a little bit of advantage to Brandon Woodruff, but it's not a big advantage.

I really feel like there's so many people that continue to misunderstand this Reds team,

whether you're looking at the pitching staff or the lineup.

Everyone has it in their might.

Well, the only reason they made the playoffs last year was because the Mets just collapsed.

Okay.

I got you better.

We're still above.

They were still above 500.

They were still above 500, even though the Mets collapsed.

This team scored below league average when it comes to runs per game.

And they still won 83 ball games.

That's how good the pitching staff was.

And by the way, they missed Hunter Green for a big chunk of last season.

So it's that is if we're talking about uncharted territory.

Hunter Green isn't the guy that made 32 starts last year.

That was Brady Singer.

Hunter Green isn't the guy that made 29 starts last year.

That was Andrew Abbott.

Hunter Green didn't make 28 starts last year.

That was Nicolidolo.

And the starts that were made by Chase Burns, we saw other than the blow up in Boston,

the potential that he has to be a top into the rotation type dude.

Brett Louder is not a seventh pick overall in the draft free for no reason at all.

Like this dude's got a ton of talent.

I think we're going to see that here this year.

The Reds have the depth to fill in those guys when they need to take a break with Brandon

Williamson and Chase Petty.

And the bullpen is much improved from last season where they were a pretty decent group.

They weren't like elite, but they also weren't bad either.

Like every part about this team has improved from last year to this year.

And yet for some reason, everybody's looking at them as like, I don't know that smash

the over when it comes to the Cincinnati Reds.

Absolutely.

Listen, last time we talked about some of the national predictions, there were a couple

guys in the comment section.

And listen, I read the comment section every day, Jeff, I know you read the comment section

every day.

We read these things guys.

We like to hear what you have to say.

And there were a couple of you that had some lengthy comments about, well, why are you

guys talking about this national stuff?

You're just looking for clicks.

You can be better than this.

It's important to talk about what the national narrative is and just how wrong it is right

now.

People are just sleeping way too much on what this red team is going to be.

I think they have not given this team a fair amount of evaluation.

And I think that honestly, I think there's been some lazy evaluation at the national level

where guys just pull up the stat sheet and look at what the numbers were last year and

say, well, this is who the reds are.

That is not who the Cincinnati Reds are last year.

There were a lot of people working their way back from injuries and problems.

And there is going to be a lot of guys looking around halfway through this season at a national

level going, where do these guys come from?

Well, this is who they've always been.

They just missed their analysis.

That's what it is, folks.

And that's why we're talking about it because I don't want you to be confused.

I don't want you to watch Jeff and I and be like, well, Jeff and Steve are saying this

reds team really has a chance to compete.

But when I turn on ESPN, when I turn on the national shows, they're saying the reds might

not even make 500, well, they're wrong, folks.

And that's why we're telling you so.

They do not have this right.

This team is built to compete right now.

And that's why it was such a big deal, how the ownership and how the front office handled

this off season, they leaned into it a little bit because this team is poised to make

that next move, that next step and not only compete for the postseason, but compete for

this division.

I believe Tito Francona, when he's saying, now is the time to go.

This team is built to go and I'm ready for it.

For much of my lifetime, the Cincinnati Reds have been fun, but flawed.

And I think that's where everyone is starting with this team this year.

And there are far fewer flaws than they even understand.

I feel like this team is just going to go and there's going to be a lot of people that

are surprised.

But if you listen to Steve and you listen to me, you won't be.

All right, Steve, speaking of surprising, not surprising, whatever that might be.

I don't know.

Coming up next.

The number of Cincinnati Reds in the lockdown MLB top 100, this is just about right.

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All right.

Steve, coming out today is the locked on MLB top 100 show over on the locked on MLB feed

going through the 100 best players in Major League Baseball as put together by the locked

on MLB group of hosts.

And the reds got five guys in the locked on MLB top one, that's right.

Five players.

Now, four or three of them are pitchers, two of them are position players.

You can probably guess all of them because it's Ali, it's Hunter, it's Andrew Abbott,

it's A.U.

Hania Suarez and it's Nick Liddello.

But I think it's intriguing that there are five people and you can get granular with

who's ranked around who.

As we look at this season, we are going to compare people who they are ranked around

in next two reds and things like that.

But I think it's really awesome that we are seeing the top three of the starting rotation

and the top two position players on this team all make the top 100 because it at least

tells me that there is a sliver of hope in our locked on MLB hosts nationally, as opposed

to everyone else nationally, understanding how good this red scene can be.

Yeah, and there's none of these that jumped out at me as being missing the mark.

You know, you're talking about top 100 in baseball.

But let's just jump right into the first one that makes the first one, do you want to

wait?

Okay.

There's one.

There's one.

I'll get to it.

Let's jump into the first one that makes a list.

That's Nick Liddello at number 95.

I think that's about right.

Nick Liddello has showed us flashes of greatness.

He showed us flashes of being really, really good, but he's also been inconsistent and his

availability is still a question.

This list, starting with Nick Liddello at number 95 and the rest of the guys as we work

through this, every single guy on this list has the potential to be rated higher.

Next season, then they were rated this season based on them turning a quarter, coming off

of an injury or improving upon their numbers or doing a multitude of things that we expect

them to do this year.

I like Nick Liddello here, though.

He was able to, you know, be the second most reliable starter for the reds in 2025.

He was able to be more available than he was in years past.

I think he was number two in starts on the team behind Andrew Abbott.

He made that that.

Three behind his singer in Abbott, singer in Abbott, he was a questionable, questionable

relief pitcher there at the end of the season for a game.

But, you know, Nick Liddello was available and around and I think as he continues to figure

out how to pitch again where he's not injuring, you know, having the reoccurrence of that,

that blister on his hand, getting a feel for those pitches.

It started to come towards the second half to end of last year.

I think he's starting off from that place this year.

He's going to move up on this list next year, but I like him at 95.

I think it's fair.

I think it gives him room to grow and recognizes in all of baseball just how good he is as

a starting pitcher.

I'm with you.

I'm excited on the fact that he even made the top 100 because I think that he is a known

commodity within reds fandom.

I didn't think he was a known commodity nationally.

I think that there's definitely some folks that have watched him pitch that understand

his stuff.

And if he can be, if he can hit that like qualifying innings limit this year, if he can

jump up in there with that, I think a lot more people are going to take notice of him

and he's going to shoot up this list.

The next guy is the guy that I got problems.

You said you don't have too many problems with ranking.

A.U. Haney Oswara is ranked at number 90 is ridiculous.

And I think that there are some people that underrated him because they think, oh, he's

a horrible defensive player, which he's not.

He talked about this.

He's below average, but he's not horrible.

And there's some people that think about his low batting average.

Steve, there's two things that I think people forgot about.

Number one is the wonderful statistic that is the 49 plus home reclub since 2019.

Only three guys have done that multiple times.

Two of them are the top two guys on our lockdown and maybe top 100 list that you will find

out over on Lockdown MLB, which is Shohei Otani and Aaron Judge.

And the third one is A.U. Haney Oswara's.

How the heck can you be talked about in a conversation with those two guys and not even

make the top 50, let alone the top 60, 70, 80, now he's number 90.

Are you kidding me?

The other part of this too, Steve.

Last year, league average, we talked about how league average when it comes to batting

average was low.

League average when it came to slugging percentage went high, either the league, the league

line for slugging percentage was 404.

What was Ellie or sorry, what was Geno slugging percentage last year?

By I have 26 points next 122 points higher than league average.

And we're saying that there are 89 players that are better than him.

The accent's insane.

I'm going to tell you.

I'm going to tell you what happened.

I'm going to tell you what happened, Jeff.

I think he got a decline phase penalty.

They're looking at him heading into his age 34 season, changing locations again, not

being the defender that he once was anywhere, questioning whether or not he can give you

40 plus home runs again and they penalized him for it.

Now you and I both think that A.U. Haney Oswara is going to come here and put up those

same numbers.

And I don't think there's going to be a lot of drop off.

In fact, I think he's going to get a GABP bump.

I think some of his numbers are going to be better playing 81 games in Cincinnati versus

playing home games in Seattle or in Arizona.

I think he's going to get some offensive help in that regard.

But I think the voters penalized him for being 34 years old and questioning whether or

not he could put up 40 plus home runs again.

So what you're saying is Terry Francona should write a thank you letter to lock down MLB

for giving him all the bullets and board material he needs for A.U. Haney Oswara.

100%.

100%.

You send it to Terry.

Don't address it to coach Terry send it to the manager.

Some have said yes.

The next guy on the list is Andrew Rabbit.

He comes in at 84.

I think that it's that's about right.

Like look, when it comes to Abbott and Ladolo, I am very happy that both these guys made

the list and someone say, well, Abbott's the opening day starter.

Why wouldn't you make the list?

Because I just don't think they're well known outside of Cincinnati.

Maybe you had this other guy on ESPN and I'm like, you know, his name now is going to

say his name and I forgot his name tells you everything you need to know about this guy

who says that Andrew Rabbit is the luckiest starting pitcher in the major leagues.

And I think that that's full of crap.

But I still think that Andrew Rabbit being the absolute best starting pitcher for wins

above replace last year for the Cincinnati Reds according to baseball reference is something

that is overlooked by the rest of the country.

So I'm happy to see him here on this list ranked at number 84.

That is a really disrespectful bad take coming from a sports out.

You look at Andrew Abbott now heading into his fourth season.

He's made 75 big league starts.

We're not talking about a small sample size, 413 and two thirds big league innings with

a strikeout per nine that sits at 8.3 and a walk per nine that sits at three.

You know, a quick and dirty cursory looks as that's pretty darn good.

You know what else says pretty darn good Jeff 11.7 in war over those three seasons.

He has been his war has gone up every year.

He is pitched at the big league level.

It's gone from 2.8 to 3.3 to 5.6.

That is a terrible take.

ERA under three for the first time in his career last year, 29 starts.

So the only missed a couple starts out of having a full season.

Andrew Abbott's the real deal.

And this is once again an example of somebody at the national level that does not know I'm

sorry, I'm going to say it does not know what the hell they're talking about.

This is a terrible terrible take.

They don't know ball.

They don't know ball.

And I look listen, I want to tell you that if we're talking about questioning maybe the

rankings, just a scosh of where the locked on host placed them, maybe they missed a little

bit on Andrew Abbott.

I think he could have been a few points higher as well.

They've got him at 84.

I think he could have been between 75 and 80 and I would have been like, yeah, okay.

That sounds fair.

Donald has room to grow.

He's going to do things.

I think maybe they rated him just a little bit low.

Terrible terrible take at the national level.

You look at Andrew Abbott's statistics.

We talked about him a lot yesterday, Jeff, just in the fact that he was named the opening

day starter.

And just what a great humble team guy that he is, he's going to finish next year.

He's another guy on this list that will place higher next season that he plays this year.

He's going to get the exposure of being nationally, of being since now he's opening day starter

for 2026.

He's going to get the headlines while Hunter Green is out.

There's room for him to grow as well.

There's not a lot of drop off.

His stuff's not quite as good as Hunter's, but for consistency and longevity to the course

of the season, Andrew Abbott's the real deal.

And I love that he is considered by the rest of the host on this network as being top 100

worthy.

I love it.

Speaking of Hunter Green, he is next on the list at 43.

And as much as I would love to say this, that or the other about it with him being a potential

injury somewhere between missing months and the rest of the year, it's hard for me to

say anything about him at this point, but he comes at number 43 on the list.

And then of course, the top red, Ellie to the cruise at number 30.

And I kind of think that's about right based on what happened in 2025.

But I also think that that's where that's where, right, that number 30 is where one

legged Ellie rates.

That's where one legged Ellie rates, two legged Ellie is going to get a much higher rating

next season.

And just, I know we brush past Hunter Green, I want to say that it surprises me that he's

rated this high, given what the voters from the Lockdown Network have heard about Hunter

Green over the last four or five months, which is he's not healthy.

They're hearing all of that stuff that was going around about him not wanting to come

back in from injury and pitch.

They're hearing, oh, the reds are kind of looking to move him because they question his

work ethic.

That's all the stuff that was out there while these votes were going on.

So for him to have been landed at 43, that's kind of impressive and speaks to just how good

his stuff is when he's actually on the mount.

Right.

No, 100% because we know what he is when he's healthy.

It's just the biggest question is how healthy is he on a B?

And I think that Ellie to the cruise could easily be a top 10 player next year.

And I don't think a whole lot of people would fight us on that.

It's just he's got to prove it.

And that's what he's going to do in 2026.

Well, you know, who's not going to be in the top 100 next year, probably that is outfielder

Reese Hines because he is having a hard, hard time not only breaking through national

attention.

He's having a hard time breaking through with his own team and coaching staff.

We're going to talk about Reese Hines and what he can do to make a difference and make

this team in 2026.

We got that for you coming up next.

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All right, Jeff, let's talk a little bit about Reese Hines because he had himself a

nice day yesterday.

You know, a couple hits, did some things.

By the way, hit the hardest hit in the history of Cincinnati Reds hits in the stat cast

era, surpassing Ellie De La Cruz's previous record.

That was set in a regular season game, mind you, but Reese Hines bashed the baseball.

And it makes you wonder, what did this guy got to do to get an extended look and compete

with Wilbinson and JJ Blade?

What does he got to do?

And the sad answer in my mind is Jeff, and I hope you've got a better answer than this.

I hope you can talk me off of this position because it's my position that there is absolutely

nothing that Reese Hines can do out in good year to play his way into the conversation.

The Reds have already decided he is a non factor.

He's a spare part.

He's heading to Louisville.

If you had on your Lahton Reds Bingo card for the day that there would be a mention

of Ina Garten in here, well, then mark that spot.

Because Ina Garten has this book about being ready when the luck happens.

That's honestly what Reese Hines has to do at this point, because he's not going to force

his way onto the Major League roster.

He's not going to convince people that he deserves more playing time than the Nuelvi

Marta that he deserves more playing time than JJ Blade or Wilbinson or DJ Freedle or

Dave Myers or Spencer Steer.

You could argue that he might be below a couple of guys on the death chart at Triple A when

it comes to who's getting the first call up in 2026.

So whenever he gets his chance, because he probably will at some point, he's basically

got to do exactly what he did the first time he came up here and just go crazy.

The difference will be can he hold on to that.

Steve, he did this thing last year.

And there's been some folks that have brought this up to me and I kind of looked deeper

into it and they've got a point.

He cut his strikeout rate fortuitously at the Triple A level last year.

Minds you, he's always been a high strikeout guy, no matter where he has played.

In 2022 at double A, he struck out 41% of the time at double A.

In 2023, he got to bump up the Triple A.

He struck out 38% and it was 37.9% of the time I'm going to round up just for my own

say, 38% of the time.

Then he gets that call up for a half second to the majors and in 24 games, he still strikes

out 31% of the time.

Last year in his tiny sample size in the major leagues in 44 at bats, he struck out 47.7%

of the time.

He was almost striking out once every two at bats.

And then he goes down to Triple A and something changes.

So for me, if there is anything that he can control, just keep doing that because what

else he did around cutting that strikeout rate down is pretty impressive.

He played 107 games in Louisville last year.

He had 24 home runs.

He slugged 563, got on base almost 36% of the time and he cut his strikeout by 12% year

over year from the Triple A level.

So if he keeps doing that, he's going to be on a list for when it comes to getting a

call up and getting a chance.

And then when he gets that chance, he's got to go crazy.

Because as of right now, I do not believe he can create his own chance.

He just has to be ready when the chance is given to him.

And here's the frustrating thing I think for me, you know, I feel like you're right.

There are other outfielders in Louisville that are considered ahead of him in the death

chart.

I think the first call up is going to Hector Rodriguez.

I don't think it's going to be reshines.

So see, I disagree.

Do you?

Because I really think I don't think that Blake Dunn gives you what you're looking for.

But I hope I'm wrong.

I look at reshines and I really want him to get another opportunity.

I think they're going to go with the Hector Rodriguez.

Maybe even both of those guys, actually, Jeff, maybe we're both right.

Maybe both of those guys are ahead of reshines in the pecking order of call ups.

But I look at reshines and I want to see him have a prolonged look because I know this.

If you have to put one of them out there in the outfield, reshines is going to play a better

outfield for you than what we've seen from Hector Rodriguez.

He has looked terrible in the outfield this year.

He is running horrible routes.

He looks like he doesn't know what he's doing.

I reshines is better defensively.

Now, Blake Dunn is probably from a route running cover ground standpoint, better outfielder

than reshines, but reshines has a cannon for an arm defensively.

So I would like to see him get a look, Jeff.

I was excited.

I happened to be back in Cincinnati when he got that first call up and went on that home

run bench.

And that was a good read out of the ballpark.

I want to see that again.

I want him to get a look because I really just don't think we know.

So I don't think that that 2024 performance tells us a lot.

It tells us some potential.

And I don't think that 2025 performance tells us anything either.

I just don't know how this you can't get a look.

And I would like for them to give him a look.

You know, he did hit two more home runs in Santiago, Espanol did last year.

So there's that.

But when it comes to when it comes to him, I think that there is something to this spring

train.

And I'm not talking about the statistics.

I'm talking about the fact that as roster cuts are happening, they have already sent

Hector Rodriguez down to triple A camp.

They have not sent reshines down to triple A key.

The only reason that I think that Blake done gets the calls that he can play center field.

Don't know that reshines can.

He's more of a corner outfield guy.

I think he would be a very risky play in center field.

I think you can play him there in a pinch.

I don't know if I want to start him there for 20 games in a row, but he could play

there today.

Yeah.

You could cover it a day or, you know, I mean, Jesse Winker did.

So anybody can write like that, but he's they put this team put Tyler Stevenson in the

outfield.

You need to stop worrying about where they're going to play guys in the outfield because

they played Tyler Stevenson in the left field, right?

But I think that the points still stands that I just don't know when his call up is it

and like everybody's like, oh my gosh, look at this.

119.6 miles an hour.

The hardest hit ball in the stat cast error for his Cincinnati Red holy crap, that's harder

than Ellie's home run and Cleveland, huh, that's got to be something.

Yeah, I don't, I don't, I don't think that one massive hit albeit it was loud.

I did hear it on the radio, but I don't think that that one hit changes a lot of things

for him.

It's got to be the plate discipline and it's got to be, are you ready?

And the luck happens because that's going to be what changes his career trajectory.

It's got to be terrible for him to have to tell himself the his fate rests in being in

the right place at the right time.

And that is where we're going to wrap it up for today.

Thanks so much for making Lockdown Red your first listen each and every day for the audio

folks.

Go check out Lockdown MLB, Sully's got you covered over there with all of Major League

baseball from a national perspective and former Red Mike Stanton's also got you covered

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up all the news, the notes, the rumors, the reports and the information to keep you locked

on reds every single day.

How easy was that?

Which part?

Which part?

Which part?