Payrolls pending

0:00Today, global markets are calmer. As attention turns to the US labour market updates and oil prices steady. Plus, the Japanese yen is on alert for intervention yet again. And, raw comes out, look to the point, and it stockpulls out of ours. This is Reuters Morningbit, bringing you un-piltered market news and analysis straight from the Reuters newsroom. I'm Mike Dolenland. And I'm Peter Devlin, it's Thursday, September 3rd. So Mike, how do we sum up the vibe on Wall Street right now? I a bit of maybe nervous relief for seeing stocks on the rise again, bought Niels easing off. Even oil prices dipping after President Trump saying there were new tax on Iran will be short-lived. But as always, there's plenty on the horizon to keep us on watch. We have the big jobs report to you up tomorrow. Three Fed speakers do speak today, including Christopher Waller speaking at a Reuters next event. Even Tesla is releasing their CyberCab today. It definitely seems like a bit of the calm before the storm. Yeah, I think you pointed to the big issue, which is the labor market,

1:02which we've been getting drip feeds of all week, of course, as normal in a big payrolls week. Of course, we have the main event tomorrow. And I think a lot has was priced into particularly the bond markets at the early part of the week. And it's caused a shot across the bow for stock markets as well. And now I think we need to just get more information. So again, to holding pattern, the other big issue, as you mentioned in the Gulf, we're continuing to see exchanges going on there, but nothing that would take us into a new territory and the crude oil price in particular has found a level. Let's say it's still about $90 a barrel for a brand crude, but off those highs we saw early yesterday. One addition though, as we've been saying all week, that the bond market storm is a global one. And it's very much in Europe as well as the United States.

2:06And yesterday, we did get a very big jump in natural gas prices. And this is of course very important for Europe coming into the winter season. It has a very big, important need in that regard and has to build storage for the winter. And those prices, those benchmark prices hit their highest level in three years. So well beyond the new levels that we saw in the crude oil market. And that's a worry as we outline budget season coming up, a lot of political tension as well around that. And so European bond markets still on edge as well. Some big moves though in the currency market though, we look at the yen still gaining this morning after a sudden spike yesterday. I mean, there's been a lot of finger pointing around this move. And I want to pick your brain on this. Some are in the comp saying it came after a bankage pound board member maybe hinted to the possibility of outsized moves or maybe a back-to-bike industry hike. Others a bit more skeptical, maybe pointing to intervention.

3:07I mean, either way, it seems it's going to be a nervous ride up to the bankage pound rate decision later this month. Yeah, we do get a flurry of activity yesterday afternoon in European time at least. And that about 1% jump in the in the end. There was suspicions that there was what's now known as quote checking where official organizations, whether it's the bankage of Japan or the US officials start to request information from the market shall we say which puts everyone on alert for possible yen buying which we saw of course last month, a hundred billion dollars worth of yen buying as it turned out from the from the bankage of Japan much less so from the US side but they were involved too as we know. So there is an interesting story here and dollar yen the the yen had fallen through that 160 level on a number of occasions earlier this week which is is quite sensitive. So to your point what's going on is is this more or less speculation about what the bankage

4:12of Japan industry move will be maybe I mean I think it's an interesting point that the markets now beginning to examine is that we've talked endlessly will they won't they and we assume a quarter point industry move one way or the other was was what would happen but if there is a chance that they would move more than that certainly the pressure from the US side is building to that effect we heard from Scott Besson earlier in the week then that that could have a very big impact and these things are all tied together in in in strange ways obviously the US got involved ostensibly to avoid the chance that the bankage of Japan on its own may have to go into a protracted dollar sales that would see itself US treasuries as well. Also we have this speculation that Japan is trying to play both the currency market and the oil market so to what extent was it also considering selling Brent crude futures so there are lots of aspects of the macro markets that

5:14are tied up in this store so we'll watch it very closely. So finally Mike this finish up on the world's third largest chip company comes with a lot of scrutiny of course we're talking about broad comments released its earnings after the bell yesterday and broad comes had a pretty dismal summer hasn't it after June that disappointing outlook since shares tumbling I think it was its worst earnings performance since about 2009 and so Nvidia like earnings were needed today and I think we got maybe Nvidia like guidance instead I mean some big big numbers going forward expects it's a AI chip revenue to double to about 115 billion dollars in the fiscal 2027 and so even further to around 230 billion the year afterwards but that didn't really impress investors did yeah it's interesting I mean and you're right I mean it was a pretty aggressive forecast going out over the next year or two about what's happening which which chimes with Nvidia in the sense that I think the big takeaway from the latest Nvidia results was whatever about itself it tells us this huge boom is now expected to continue or it's certainly not going to slow down very much next year

6:19and possibly into 28 so that's a really significant takeaway for investors everywhere. Broke on to chime with that however it stock is down out of ours even though the incoming earnings were also ahead of expectations but it was the the laser focus was on on the fourth quarter and the fourth quarter did miss estimates and you know stocks that that not down very much is down about 2 3% maybe but it's interesting what the reaction is I think the takeaway for the broader market will be those longer term numbers and they are very impressive still and that is you know again speaks to the wider picture of not so much a recession worry but actually is the economy growing too hot. On for today's recommended read check out Mike's column on whether US tech giants AI debt boom could crowd out European borrowers the link is in the show notes

7:22and for more of any of today's stories head to roiders.com or the Reuters app follow us on your favorite podcast player and if you're on a smart speaker just ask for the latest market news from rogers we'll be back tomorrow