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It's Friday the 27th of March. Welcome to the PDB afternoon bulletin. I'm Mike Baker,
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your eyes and ears on the world stage. Alright, let's get briefed.
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First up, Iran's leadership is reportedly openly debating whether to formally pursue a
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nuclear weapon, something the regime has long denied even considering. The question now
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is whether this is just saber-addling, a negotiating tactic, or the beginning of a real
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change in strategy. I'll have the details.
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Later in the show, Ukraine strikes on Russia's energy infrastructure are starting to add up,
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taking roughly 40% of Moscow's oil export capacity offline. Now while it's a massive
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hit to the Kremlin's war chest, rising oil prices and shifting sanctions may be offsetting
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Ukraine's successes. But first, today's afternoon spotlight.
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I want to start with a development inside Iran that could carry significant long-term consequences.
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As the fighting continues, a new debate is reportedly emerging inside Tehran, and its
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centers on the following question, should Iran formally pursue a nuclear weapon? According
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to an exclusive report from Reuters, the nuclear debate is no longer confined to private
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conversations, despite the battering that Iran's military and leadership has taken since
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the war began, the conversation is becoming louder, more public, and more insistent,
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particularly among hard-line factions now gaining further influence inside the system.
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Two senior Iranian sources told Reuters that while Tehran has not made a decision to
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build a bomb, serious voices within the establishment are now openly questioning the
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country's supposed long-standing nuclear doctrine. As a reminder, the now deceased
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Ayatollah Ali Hamani issued a religious ruling, or al-Fatwa, back in 2003, that in theory
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declared nuclear weapons forbidden under Islam, though notably that ruling was never formally
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codified. While many in the international community have repeatedly warned that Iran wants
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a bomb, analysts have long framed the regime's strategy as somewhat more nuanced, saying
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their goal has been to attain the status of a, quote, threshold state, one able to produce
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a bomb quickly if needed, but stopping just short of actually building a viable weapon
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to avoid the consequences of becoming a nuclear-armed state. But the renewed calls inside the regime
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to formally pursue a nuclear weapon are coming as Iran's leadership structure undergoes
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a major shift. As we discussed on yesterday's PDB, the death of Hamani and the killing of
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senior figures, like Ali Lahrajani, has accelerated a transition toward a more security-driven
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system with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, now firmly at the center of power.
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Reuters reports that due to the IRGC's ascent, hardline views on nuclear policy are rapidly gaining
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ground, a shift now playing out, in public. State-affiliated media outlets, for example,
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have begun openly discussing the idea of withdrawing from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty,
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the NPT, something that Iran has threatened in the past, but never seriously pursued.
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Muhammad Ijavad Lahrajani, a hardline politician and brother of the deceased Ali Lahrajani,
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was quoted this week calling for Iran to suspend its membership in the treaty altogether,
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arguing the country should reassess whether the treaty serves any purpose. And in a segment,
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Erdogan Iranian state television and influential conservative commentator went even further,
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saying the public now demands that Iran either rapidly build a nuclear weapon or,
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disturbingly, work to acquire one. It's important to be clear here,
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Iran is not made a formal decision to pursue a bomb, and in theory, the 2003 Fatwa remains in place.
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But the sources that spoke with Reuters said that with how many dead and moderating voices inside
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the system weakened, it's no longer clear how much weight that Fatwa still carries,
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or who has the authority to enforce it. At the same time, there are competing views inside the regime.
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The sources told Reuters that nuclear policy remains a subject of intense internal debate,
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with the visions emerging between hardline elements, including the IRGC,
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and parts of the political establishment over whether pursuing a bomb would ultimately serve Iran's
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interests. There's also the practical question of capabilities. Iran's nuclear facilities have
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taken significant damage in recent weeks from US and Israeli strikes, on top of the damage
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that they suffered during US air strikes last June. Analysts say it remains unclear how quickly
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Tehran could actually move to weaponize its program under current conditions. There's also
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the question of whether this rhetoric is strategic play. For example, Iran is threatened to reconsider
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its participation in the NPT multiple times over the past couple of decades, often as leverage
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and negotiations with the West, without ever following through. So this latest wave of nuclear
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talk may be, well at least in part, another bargaining tactic. Still, it doesn't erase the
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underlying reality on the ground. Despite the US and Israeli campaign, Iran is still believed
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to retain significant qualities of highly enriched uranium, with estimates putting it at roughly
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450 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity. Now that's not quite weapons grade,
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but with the right equipment, that material could potentially be further enriched to those levels
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quickly. So while air strikes have degraded Iran's facilities and functionally shut down their
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enrichment program, well for now, the uranium itself is likely still intact. We're seeing a
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regime under pressure, with a more fragmented leadership structure, increasingly influenced by
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hard-line security actors, who may want to change the calculus around nuclear weapons.
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And that's a reality that Washington will have to keep in mind, especially if, or when,
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diplomatic talks turn toward what kind of deal might eventually bring this conflict to an end.
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Alright, coming up next, Ukraine's campaign against Russia's oil infrastructure is beginning
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to reshape the conflict, knocking out roughly 40 percent of the Kremlin's export capacity. I'll
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We've been tracking Ukraine's campaign to go after Russia's energy infrastructure.
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And now those strikes are starting to have a sizable impact on Moscow's bottom line.
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In recent strikes, Ukraine has managed to knock out what analysts estimate is roughly 40 percent
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of Russia's oil export capacity, that's according to Reuters calculations,
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and equivalent to about two million barrels per day. That constitutes a massive hit to the
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financial engine funding the Kremlin's war. And Ukraine is showing no signs of easing the pressure.
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Overnight, on March 26, more than 20 Ukrainian drones targeted Russia's Leningrad region,
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hitting industrial infrastructure near the Kirichy refinery. That's the country's second
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largest oil processing facility, that's according to local officials, cited by the Kiev Post.
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The plant processes up to 20 million tons of oil annually, producing fuel and petrol chemicals
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critical to both domestic supply and export. The latest strike follows earlier attacks this week,
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on Russia's Baltic Energy Corridor, including the ports of Lusluga and Plymosk,
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two of the country's most important export terminals.
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Taken together, Ukraine is now hitting every major western export route that Russia relies on,
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from the Baltic to the Black Sea, forcing disruptions across the system.
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And according to Reuters, this is now the most severe oil supply disruption in modern Russian
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history. So the strategy here is clear. Ukraine is going after the one thing that Russia cannot
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easily replace, and that would be oil revenues. Roughly a quarter of Moscow's state budget comes from
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oil and gas exports. So when you start shutting down terminals and refineries and shipping routes,
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well you're squeezing the Kremlin's ability to finance its war. But there's a complication,
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and of course there's always a complication. As Kyiv's strikes ramp up, the ongoing war with
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Iran has pushed oil prices higher, and that's creating a situation where even reduced Russian
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exports can still generate significant income. And the Trump administration has eased some sanctions
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pressure on Russia in recent weeks in an effort to keep prices down, giving Moscow more room to
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maneuver, just as Ukraine is trying to tighten the screws. Officials say Moscow is working to
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reroute oil flows and restore capacity where possible, while continuing to rely on its shadow
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fleet to move crude around western restrictions. Still, well there are limits to how quickly that
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system can adjust, especially when key nodes are being hit repeatedly. And that, my friends,
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is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Friday, the 27th of March. If you have any questions or comments,
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please reach out to me at pdp at thefirsttv.com. And to listen to the show ad free, you can do that,
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it's very simple, just become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting pdppremium.com.
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And of course, finally, given that it's Friday, which it is, we've got a brand new episode of the
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and as always, you can catch it on our YouTube channel at president's daily brief and podcast
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platforms everywhere. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back over the weekend with the PDB situation
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report. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
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