Peace talks due to take place in Pakistan in coming days

The White House has confirmed that a US Vice President JD Vance will lead a negotiating

team for talks with Iran in Pakistan, which will begin this weekend.

It comes as Lebanese health authorities say more than 250 people have been killed in intense

Israeli strikes, with international calls for Lebanon to be included in the observation

of a ceasefire.

China 2C is a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy, where

his work focuses on US Iran relations, US policy towards the Middle East and nuclear issues.

He joined me earlier.

China 2C, welcome to Radio National Breakfast.

Hi, thank you for having me.

The US Defense Secretary says a two week ceasefire agreed with Iran offers a real chance

for peace.

Do you share that optimism?

So the key to getting to a lasting peace with the US and Iran is to bridge the pretty big

divide that exists in their demands.

I mean, up until now, this has been unbridgeable.

The US, before this war, had demands having to do with Iran giving up its missile program,

its nuclear program, its regional allies, and Iran has been averse to that, and it's

wanted sanctions relief and to come out from the threat of war.

So right now, we'll have to see in these negotiations how much the battlefield and the

military conflict that has occurred has affected each side's understanding of their bottom

line, whether they're willing to get more concessions.

But right now, it seems like Iran thinks it's in a stronger position than it was before

this war, and it's sticking to its bottom line.

Even some of the conditions of this ceasefire, though, seem to be contested, particularly

around whether or not it includes Israel's attacks on Lebanon, do you think a ceasefire

can hold if we continue to see strikes on Lebanon?

Yes, so this ceasefire is revealing itself to be very fragile.

Trump, when he announced it, said it would be based on these ten points that the Iranians

gave and their counter-proposal to the US, which reflected all of their demands, a kind

of their wish list.

And right now, we're seeing that even though the Pakistani mediator for these ceasefire

had announced that it would be a regional ceasefire, that the agreement included Lebanon,

the Israelis are opposed to this ceasefire, and they have launching this very massive

and severe bombing campaign against Lebanon today, and Iran is now threatening that the

ceasefire can fall apart.

It's going to double down on its closure of the straight-of-form moves.

So as of right now, it does seem very fragile.

How strong do you think Iran's hand is at the moment?

You mentioned those ten counter-proposals from Iran that seem to have been accepted

as the basis for negotiations.

I mean, they're calling for things like having control of the straight-of-war moves,

having the US withdraw from bases in the region, compensation for damage and the like.

Do you think that, as the other side of the Gulf, as you mentioned, between their proposals?

Do you think the fact that Iran is putting those points forwards is a sign of just how much

persuasive power it has at this point in the conflict?

So that Iranians could very well be overplaying their hand or Trump might prove to oppose these demands

and they are unable to find a middle-ground solution and the conflict restarts.

But the fact is that, you know, this war was preceded by negotiations between the US and Iran,

by all accounts, just before this war started, there was a deal that was on the verge of being

reached. That would have been a stronger deal than the nuclear deal that former US President

Barack Obama got in 2015, that Iran is willing to get more nuclear concessions, but Trump,

you know, went in on this war and really had a regime change goal and or wanted to get

totally Iranian capitulation. That has not happened.

And I think the biggest thing that has kind of changed the strategic equation,

which Iran views, views that it has gained the stronger hand, is the straight-of-form

moves closure. That Iran proved able to take everything that Israel and the US can throw at it,

short of a ground invasion, short of catastrophic escalation. And it was continuing to back,

you know, with its ballistic missile strikes, its drone strikes, and the straight-of-form moves

remained de facto closed, which gave Iran leverage over the global economy or the US economy.

And now we've seen a ceasefire has been reached where Iran is doubling down on its bottom line,

it wants total sanctions relief, it wants an economic horizon,

so permanently end these hostilities and not have another war start again soon.

But we'll see, there's many open questions, and Trump may very well decide to re-enter this war.

You're listening to Radio National Breakfast, where my guest is Sena 2CA,

US Iran expert from the Center for International Policy. Look, we've seen a pretty tumultuous

24 hours for the people of Iran. Have you been able to get any information from people in Iran

at the moment about how they're responding to these developments? I myself am Iranian-American,

and I have some of my relatives and friends in Iran, and being in contact with them

intermittently, because the access to the international internet has been limited by the Iranian

government during this time, and it is very difficult to establish communication, but in every few

days, my family has been able to connect to my grandmother, for example, in Iran, and people have

been terrified, many people have evacuated their homes, for example, leaving Tehran to go in the

north of the country or elsewhere in the provinces, and also because of Trump's threats against power

plants and the energy infrastructure that many people have been. Stockpiling, oil, buying candles,

buying these kind of things that they could withstand a period of losing energy and losing

basic services. So it's been really scary, but for now, there's been a real palpable sense of

relief that this very terrifying threat that Trump made yesterday to end civilization in Iran

is very arguably genocidal threat that that has not come to pass, and there is this sense of

relief from that for now right now. At least a small bit of good news to end there,

thanks very much for speaking to me this morning. Thank you for having me, appreciate it.