Penguins set to play in Ottawa in the BIGGEST GAME of the year so far!

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The Pittsburgh Penguins have a humongous game

against the Ottawa Senators in Ottawa on Thursday night

and Pat and I are going to get you all set

for that game coming up right after this.

You're locked on penguin.

Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Part of the locked on podcast network.

Your team every day.

Hello and welcome to the Thursday edition

of the locked on penguins podcast.

I one of your host Hunter Hodes.

You can follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes joined

by my coast Patrick damp.

You can follow him on all social media platforms

at Center for Wet.

You can also follow the shows Twitter at L.O.

underscore penguins and you can find us on Instagram

at locked on underscore penguins.

Of course, thank you all so much for making this.

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Pat, I'm going to say this on Monday,

but it applies here right now.

This is the penguins biggest game in two years tonight

against the Ottawa Senators

with where both teams are in the standings

with the way the penguins have lost to in a row.

This is a gigantic game for the penguins

as they try and stay in a playoff spot

in a Mechballton division.

And they will go up against the team

that they have really struggled against as of late.

They have lost nine of their last 11 games

to the Ottawa Senators.

They have also lost five in a row in Ottawa.

They have not won in Ottawa since February of 2022.

Now, for those five losses of coming over time

so they've had some chances to win since then.

But Ottawa has also been a little bit of a house of horrors

for the penguins as of late.

It's not as much as Raleigh

because that goes back to the 2018-19 season.

But this is a place where the penguins

have not been winning as of late.

And this is also a team that has been giving them fits

for the last few seasons in Ottawa.

They are red hot coming into this game.

They've won four in a row, six of their last seven games.

They're in the final playoff spot right now.

They rose from the abyss.

They were towards the bottom of the Eastern Conference pad

but they were able to get some of their guys back

even though they're banged up defensively.

But some of their fours are able to come back.

Their goalting was able to stabilize ever so slightly.

And you combine that with their underlying numbers

which are really good.

I'll get into those in a little bit.

They've been able to get back into a playoff spot.

This is a team that has played better

than their record would indicate all season.

This is going to be a really tough matchup for the penguins.

This is an Ottawa team that is one of the top defensive teams

in the league that they are one of the best teams

in terms of preventing scoring chances

and high danger chances at five on five.

They're also top five in the league

in expected goal share and shot attempts

just a really sound team overall.

Now the big area where their week tonight

is on the back end.

No Jake Sanderson, no Tomasz Shabbat.

The biggest key for me tonight with the penguins

trying to get after some of Ottawa's defensive

because their best two puck movers are both out.

Yeah, this is huge.

They've got a lot.

Like you said, they've got a lot of injuries

on the blue line.

They've got.

They're a team that's playing really well,

but they're a team that continues to really.

I don't want to say overperformed

because let's put it this way.

When we last met the Ottawa senators,

I said this about them.

This is a really good team that can't get a save.

They play well defensively.

They generate offense.

They're able to score,

but they were getting undone by goal tending.

You're going to look at the senators right now today

and you're going to see Linus Olmark

with an 887 save percentage in James Rimer

with an 884 and you're going to cringe.

It used to be worse.

So much like the team itself,

they have pulled themselves up.

So you add all that together.

They're getting saves.

It is a very good Ottawa team now.

Right now, as we record this Thursday afternoon,

according to MoneyPuck,

the Pittsburgh Penguins currently have a 72 or 74.2% chance

of making the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Here's how big tonight is.

And this all has to do with regulation over time.

Doesn't move the needle all that much one way or the other.

But let's put it this way.

The Penguins win in regulations tonight.

Their odds to make the playoffs go up to 84.6%.

If they lose in regulation,

fail to get a point.

Their odds to make the playoffs fall to 65.6.

Hunter is not lying.

It's something that we're going to say quite a bit

over the next couple of weeks.

But this is for now the biggest game of the year.

You cannot no show this one.

Now if you end up winning going to over time in this game,

if you win and over time 82.9%.

That's pretty good.

If you lose an OT,

your odds actually go up a little bit to 75%.

So let's put it this way.

If you can get a regulation victory against the Ottawa Senators

tonight,

you're not quite stamping your ticket

to the Stanley Cup playoffs,

but you are getting damn close to the ticket taker

to make your way onto the train.

I also put it this way.

Your next four games were against the Senators,

the Stars,

the Islanders, which again,

we're going to say this on Monday.

That will be the biggest game of the year after this one.

And then we'll probably say the same thing on Tuesday

when they play the Red Wings

because the Red Wings are very much in the playoff race.

They're on the outside looking in right now.

They have gotten a bit healthier.

They got Andrew cop back,

Dylan Larkins back.

We'll have to see if they can make a little bit of a run here.

And then the season good because they've been a playoff spot

for most of the time.

But again, I digress of these next four games.

You win three of those.

Say you win tonight against Ottawa.

Then you beat the Islanders and the Red Wings.

I don't know the full math for MoneyPuck Pat.

Your playoff odds at that point are probably 85 plus percent,

90 plus percent,

especially if you do win all those games in regulation.

You're looking damn good.

Going into April where your toughest team left his Tampa Bay.

And then after that, you finish the season

against all non-playoff teams.

So again, this stretch here.

So so critical over the next week for their playoff chances

really gets going tonight against Ottawa.

And even from an Ottawa perspective,

they beat the penguins tonight.

Their playoff odds go up to 80 percent.

They lose Pat.

They go down to 59.9 percent.

Again, this is one of the biggest games of the season.

For any team and the penguins.

We're going to get into more keys to victory.

A bit later on in the show,

but Pat took the words right on my mouth.

You cannot know show tonight.

You cannot play the way you have played defensively

in front of your goal tenders for the last week and change tonight.

Everything has to be simple and clean for the penguins tonight.

You look at some of the auto up forwards.

They've had some really and I mean really good seasons.

32 goals and 73 points and 71 games.

Drake Batherson has also a great with 27 goals and 61 points.

Brady Kachak when he's been healthy is right at a point per game.

Jake Sanderson when he's been healthy has been great,

but he's not playing tonight.

Claude Giroux who is torched the penguins at times during his career.

He has 12 goals and 44 points.

Dylan Cousins is on pace to finish with over 30 plus goals.

Again, Shane Pinto is one goal away from a 20 goal season.

This is a team that is very potent up front and when you combine that

with the way that Linus Olmark is played against the penguins

during his career.

Here you go guys.

Linus Olmark is 8 and 0 and 0 in eight games against the penguins

with a 926 average engine at 2.2 a goals against average.

They got to figure this guy out tonight.

They do that that is going to be to me.

One of the biggest challenges that they have going into tonight

because overall this isn't will I'll talk more specifics,

more X's and O's all of that in the second segment.

This game tonight has to be almost an exorcism for the Pittsburgh

penguins because you have struggled for quite a while at Canadian

tire center in Ottawa.

You've struggled against the Ottawa Senators as a whole

for the past couple of years and you just read off the stats.

For some reason you can't figure out Linus Olmark.

So you know what tonight has to be an exorcism.

You have got to figure all of that out.

And it it's going to take really.

This is going to sound crazy to say after the most recent game.

It's going to take a similar effort to what you had against Colorado

because we said it they didn't play horrible against Colorado.

They fell asleep for two and a half minutes against Colorado.

Auto was a good team.

I like this team.

They're on the come up.

They're going to be good for quite some time.

Colorado Avalanche.

They are not.

So if you can get a similar effort and build on it.

This is a winnable game against the team.

You can beat I agree.

And we're going to find out if this team gets two points in the

savings coming up here in a few hours,

but that's going to do it for this first segment coming up in the

second segment, Pat and I are going to give some keys to victory

plus discuss Anthony Manta being in the lineup,

which is massive for this team.

That's coming up right after this.

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All right.

We're back here on the Thursday edition of the Lockdown

Penguins podcast.

I am one of your host Hunter Hodes joined by my coach Patrick

amp and Pat.

We got another injury scare on Wednesday when penguins PR tweeted

out that Anthony Manta missed the morning skate with a lower

body injury.

It was another case where he finished the game.

Nobody knew what happened and then he just nod on the ice to start

practice.

It feels like we've seen this quite often with the penguins

this year and honestly going back for other years as well

where a player will finish the game.

This is practice and then he's out for a little bit.

But thankfully, Manta travel with the team was on the ice for

the morning skate and talk with the media after confirming

that he will be in the lineup tonight that is so huge for

this team considering how consistent he has been all season.

He's been one of the best goal scorers.

I got a little bit nervous when I saw that.

You want to cope in it and every haze or both recalled.

I thought that he wasn't going to be able to go and honestly I was

thinking that someone else was maybe not going to be able to

go either but I think it was just for insurance purposes.

But Manta said he's good to go.

So that means he'll be on the second line tonight with

Igor Sheenakov and Tommy Novak.

The rest of the lines figured to stay the same same with the

defensive pairings.

We've already given our thoughts on those.

I don't think we really need to go into that too much further.

Stuart Skinner will start with for the penguins tonight.

And I'll say this man.

He plays well tonight.

I give him the net on Saturday.

I do too.

It's.

It's.

It's to the point now with the way that these two have played

for the past couple of weeks that the rotation has to stop.

And you got to ride the hot hand as long as it's hot.

It not that you know I'm not hitting the panic button here.

They're still very much in a playoff spot.

They're in a tight race.

But that's the point is that they are in a tight race.

And with the way Skinner and she loves have played over the

last couple of weeks, you can't risk wanting them to work out of a

funk.

If Skinner has a tough outing tonight Saturday, you go back to

she loves.

If she loves has a good outing, you keep playing them.

If you don't, you switch.

So it's time more so than ever for one of these two.

And I know this contradicts something I said a couple weeks ago

where maybe you just keep the rotation going into the playoffs.

But now that the race is tightened.

Now that they're even points are even more precious to this point,

you ride the goalie who's playing the best.

And if Skinner has a big performance tonight, which he needs to,

you keep going to them.

And then on top of that, both goalies need a really good performance.

They just haven't been that good for the last, you know,

we can change two weeks overall.

Honestly, ever since you said that pan, they both gone down a little bit.

But it continues the trend of the whole season where even back

to when it was Tristan Jari.

The goal-tending tandem just keeps mirroring one another.

They get one gets hot.

The other gets hot.

One goes cold.

The other goes cold.

One plays well.

The other plays well.

One gets a shut out.

The other gets a shut out.

Eventually, one of these guys has got to start pulling away.

Or it's going to be a bit of trouble along, along with that.

If there was ever a night for this team's power play to get back on track,

you're going up against the 30th ranked PK in the league.

And this is going to build off of something that I am entirely sure Hunter is going to say.

It is time on that power play for the captain to take charge.

Yes, Eric Carlson has been great.

He has been doing incredible things, but it is time for 87 to put on his laser eyes

and be the dominant force that he can be when this team needs a spark.

I am in total agreement with you on that.

And he's been fine since coming back.

He's been producing, but we haven't seen superhero said yet.

And I think it's got to start tonight when, again, this is their biggest game of the season so far.

And I just want, I just got to see it, man.

Like whether it's at five on five or on the power play, I want said to hopefully be the best player on the ice night.

There's still no Evgeny Malkin.

He didn't travel with the team to Ottawa.

We have to see if he can return for Saturday, maybe next week, still day to day with that injury,

still no play Closet on that second because I'm going to bring up penalty kill.

So without Geno, especially on the power play and at five on five,

I want to see Sid put his superhero cape on.

And say, hey, I got you guys follow my lead.

We're not losing this game.

And I want it to see a really nice vintage said game.

I know I probably sound like a repeat weirdo because we keep saying this on the pod all week.

But until it happens, I feel like I'm just going to keep repeating myself about it.

And, you know, one quick note on she loves again, had that really nice start in Denver last week.

But other than that, I just think his game is kind of gone down a little bit.

You saw it in that start against Colorado earlier this week.

And then with Skinner, he really also Pat needs a win in the worst way.

So again, he wins tonight plays well.

I give him the net on Saturday.

And I don't really look back unless he struggles in that game against Dallas.

And then, okay, you go back to she loves for the back to back.

And you know, you're both goalies are going to get a start on the back to back anyway.

But again, he plays well tonight.

I give him the net on Saturday.

If not, you guys, I guess you can continue the rotation until someone gives you a reason to really move forward for the front of a few weeks of the season.

Glad you brought up the power play.

This has got to be a really nice get right game.

When you're going up against one of the three worst penalty kills in the league.

I have not liked the power play a bit as of late.

It's just been two stagnant.

The zone entries haven't been there.

There's not been not enough puck movement.

Overall, Eric Carlson can really only do so much at the point.

Even said in his spot hasn't been doing enough on the power play.

I want to see that change.

Also, if you want to put Igor Chinacov on the top power play.

I wouldn't say no to that considering how great his releases.

How much of a shoot first mentality he has.

Why not to that?

So maybe if that unit God forbid it does struggle at least one time tonight.

You make it adjustment put Igor Chinacov up there for second power play.

If you get it.

And as for the penalty kill pat.

I want to see your response here.

Last couple of games.

It's been very unorthodox.

I do think part of that is because of no Blake LaZont.

Though LaZont's probably not going to return until the end of the regular season.

And so I started the playoffs.

We'll have to see that's the way the timeline is shaping up right now.

You got to find ways to simplify on that unit.

I get it man.

He is the workhorse of that unit.

He is the heartbeat of that unit.

But there have been too many nonchalant clearing attempts.

Too many players just kind of sitting around not doing too much.

That unit has got to get back to basics the auto power play.

It's a bit above league average 12th overall.

But I got to see a response from that unit here.

Yeah, you really do.

It's got to be a little bit of pride here.

You've been getting your lunch fed to you the last few games.

You really haven't been the damn near elite unit.

You have been for most of the year.

So have some pride in it.

Get back to that.

And you brought up Chinacov.

I think that needs to just be a thing period.

The shot he has.

The velocity behind it.

The way he finds open space.

He's earned it.

It's time to put him on the top power play unit.

Because he is rapidly becoming one of your best goal scorers.

And what is the power play other than a goal scoring competition.

So put him on top of that.

And really at the end of the day.

This is the last thing I'm going to add.

And.

I don't know if the penguins.

Any one of the penguins listens to this.

If they do, I hope we have some some influence.

But this has got to be the borderline last chance saloon for Vila Covenin.

I like the kid.

We talked about it this week.

There's going to come a time where he's going to get better because development is not linear.

It takes several different paths.

It goes down a lot of side streets.

It's rarely straightforward.

But with where this team is in what they need to do.

I like Covenin.

I can't wait to see what he does in the future.

But we are in the here and now.

And.

If he does not perform in this game or the next one.

It really, really needs to be rucker majority time.

Yeah, I was going to add that if you weren't going to say that at the end of your speech there.

Because I think majority.

He has played very well in Wilkesbury.

As of late, you've seen him in late game situations before, you know, going back to the end of last season when he made his NHL.

Well, not that was not his NHL debut, but he got a second stint in the NHL.

I should say when he looked like a completely different player.

Earlier this season when.

And look like he was still starting to figure it out a little bit before he got sent back to Wilkesbury.

You know, if Covenin doesn't do it tonight, I would call rucker up.

First Saturday's game on Friday.

I would have that practice on Friday because they are scheduled to practice.

They're going to fly home after this game.

They'll get in early morning hours.

They'll practice on Friday.

I would have rucker there right away if Billy does not play.

And this one I just think with where the team is right now.

His game, I think, meshes a little bit better.

Now I could be proven wrong and Billy has a really good game tonight for the penguins.

I would love for that to happen.

But if he doesn't, I want rucker here right away on Friday for practice and then sticking around at least for Saturday's game against the stars and then potentially that huge back to back next week.

Against the islanders and the red wings.

But that's going to do it for this second segment coming up to end the show.

I'm going to give another key or two for tonight's game.

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All right, we're back here on the Thursday edition of the Locked On Penguins podcast.

I'm one of your host Hunter Hodes joined by my co is Patrick and Pat.

I hinted at it earlier in the show, but I want to see a very simple clean game from the penguins tonight.

I want to see them defend their own zone like their lives depend on it.

I want to see them play their style of hockey that was working beautifully in January.

Some of February, I know the Olympic break was for most of that month, but they were still carrying that play over into those games that they played that month.

But for a lot of January, where this team was just playing, you know, simple, really nice hockey in their own zone where they weren't trying to do too much.

They were breaking the puck out a lot cleaner.

They got it to get back to basics because the way they've been playing in their own zone as of late is simply not good enough.

They're giving up way too many high danger chances.

They're giving up way too many goals, especially you have that stat on the Wednesday show pat where they're basically just giving up over four goals for game.

As of late, so I want to see a much better performance in front of the gold tender.

Obviously, yes, the goalies need to make more saves.

We have talked about that, but the other biggest issue, the defenseman and the forwards, everyone in front of the goalie needs to be a lot better and more responsible in their own zone.

That is a huge key for me tonight against Ottawa team that four checks hard and they get a lot of great chances every single game.

They do and here's the other thing.

I try my hardest not to pull out this key to victory because it builds off of what you're saying about it being simple.

You haven't been able to solve old mark in a long time.

Yeah, make them work.

I know that it isn't really the penguin's MO, but sometimes when you need a win, you have got to go so simplistic that it helps you out and just helps you get back on solid footing.

And that means if you've got to look at the net, just put it there.

And yes, it's the NHL.

When NHL will tenders see the puck more than likely that they're going to stop it.

But you want to make him work.

You want to make him see 30, 35, 40 shots that by the third period, he's tired.

You can get in front of him.

You can make him move.

You can make him have to make more difficult saves.

The deeper the game goes.

And that is often a really easy way or not, I shouldn't say easy, but simple way to beat a goalie you haven't been able to solve is just hire them out.

Make them stop.

Make them make stops.

Even if it's the most low percentage, low danger chance, but he's got to kick a pad out.

He's got to move the blocker.

He's got to stop the puck.

He's got to bend over and cover it.

He's got to make a glove save.

The more and more he has to do it, the more you start chipping away, the more some of these opportunities start to come about.

Yeah, every time you have the puck in the offensive zone, fire it to the net, tire him out, make him make saves.

Get the traffic in front of them.

Make him go side to side.

This could be a game, especially for Justin Brazil with how good he has been around the net for most of this season.

Anthony Manta.

I mean, he has very soft hands around the net front.

We've seen that numerous times this season, big body can take away the vision of Linus Allmark.

This could be a game for both of those players, I should say, maybe some like Noah Chari as well.

He scored some greasy goals around the net front this year as well.

Maybe this could be a big game for him.

So again, taking away his vision, making him go side to side.

You know, crashing the net.

We've had opportunities.

All that good stuff for beating Linus Allmark tonight.

And last but not least, I will say this outside of this game.

There's a couple of really big games tonight that also will affect the standings.

The blue jackets.

They're also in action once again.

They're up in Montreal playing the Canadians.

Obviously you want to root for the Canadians to win that game.

You also have the stars before they come here to Pittsburgh on Saturday.

They will face the islanders up on Long Island.

Obviously you want to root for Dallas there.

This is a huge game.

Not even a huge game pat.

This is a huge night.

I should say for the race.

It's not just the penguins that have a tough game tonight.

Islanders are playing one of the top teams in the league.

And the blue jackets are playing a Canadian team that I still think is going to find their way into the playoffs.

I still think they're going to get a top three spot in the Atlantic.

If I had to guess right now, it's probably going to be third.

I don't think they're catching about flow.

And I don't think they're going to get second in the division.

Either at least my opinion.

But this is a huge night for the overall race, my friend.

It's gigantic.

And there's again, it's very similar to earlier this week where if the penguins get like if the penguins stumble again.

There's a very real world they can get help tonight by a couple of teams lose in a couple of teams.

But again, we got to come back to you.

Got to take care of your own.

We don't want this team to limp into the playoffs now.

We don't want this team to keep getting lucky and keep scoreboard watching and hoping.

This team, that team, whoever ends up helping them get in just handle your business.

Get your wins and let it shake out that way rather than praying and hoping that another team does the job for you.

Can we also talk about this that is what is really funny?

The draft this summer is going to be incredibly funny once we get to the playoffs because if you look at the standings right now.

When you go to the entire league, it's a little ridiculous.

How bad the West is because you go to 16th and down.

Utah's 16th and the league points percentage wise.

Edmonton is 18th.

Vegas is 19th.

Nashville is 20th.

LA is 23rd.

The Kraken or 25th.

Winnipeg's 26th.

San Jose 27th.

St. Louis 28th.

Calgary 29th.

Chicago 30th.

In Vancouver 32.

There are legitimate playoff teams that are out of the top 16 by point percentage.

It's genuinely crazy to me and it's going to be funny because obviously Vancouver and the Rangers are the two teams right now with the best odds to win the top pick.

But there's a chance that a team in the West that just barely misses the postseason could end up with Captain McKenna.

I mean, help.

We saw the islanders really make the jump last year to get Matthew Schaefer.

The penguins were literally one lottery ball away from getting Schaefer in that draft too.

I'll still say it to this day.

They are probably one ball away from getting Schaefer and Kendall in the same draft.

Just want to put that out there to end the show.

That would have been absolutely ridiculous.

But this is literally like a turtle race in the Western conference.

The predators might make the playoffs even though they didn't really do much of anything at the deadline in terms of buying.

We've seen them not be very good this year.

But that just goes to show how bad the West is.

But hey.

This is what you're made of this time of year.

I love these types of games.

Let's see if the penguins can get to very crucial points in this standing tonight.

Who is going to answer the call?

We're going to find out in a few hours.

What?

That's going to do it for this one.

Thank you all so much.

Take the time to listen to slash watch this one.

Pat and I will be back with a Friday episode recapping this game against the senators and getting you all set for Saturday showdown at home against Dallas stars.

And it's Friday.

You know, that means fan take Friday is going to make a return off to see if you all are positive for this one or a bit more negative.

We just got to see what happens.

Obviously tonight.

But again, that's going to do it for the Thursday edition of the show.

Thank you so much for tuning in.

We appreciate it.

Pat and I will be back on Friday.

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