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Professor, thank you very much for doing this. We've never met. I don't know a great deal about
you, but I have seen a number of your videos in which you make remarkably accurate predictions.
So that's what I know about you, and I'm impressed by that, by your ability to call events before
they happen. So with that in mind, let me ask you, where do you think this war in Iran is going,
how will it be resolved, and what are the consequences likely to be?
Well, thanks so much for inviting me to talk about my huge fan. I've been
among your work for a number of years now. Thank you. So I think that this war in Iran
will be very similar to the war in Ukraine, meaning that this will be drawn out,
be a war of attrition. Neither side will concede defeat, even though it is in the best
interest to reach a ceasefire. And this will have dramatic consequences on the global economy.
And this war could drag on for years and years. Already, we're seeing major repercussions on
the global economy, and that flights are being cancelled. In Southeast Asia, they were not
on a fuel, so they're asking people to stay at home. And in a few more months, experts are
predicting a food shortage, meaning that nations reinforce into food rationing. And today,
there's major escalation in that this really struck the largest gas field in Iran.
And Iran retaliated by attacking energy infrastructure of the GCC.
And Iran has stated that its purpose, its goal, its strategy is to move oil to $200 a barrel,
which will have a really significant impact on the global economy because the entire global economy
is based on access to cheap energy. So unfortunately, I think that we can expect this war to drag on
for years and years. Eventually, America will send in ground troops. Eventually, the
almost will be contested. Eventually, this will spread all across the world. Eventually,
other nations will be drawn in. So Saudi Arabia is thinking about declaring war on Iran.
And Saudi Arabia has a neutral defense pact with Pakistan. So Pakistan will be drawn into this war.
So things are spiling out of control. And just recently, Ali Larajini, who is the de facto head
of the Iranian war effort was assassinated. And he was a traumatic shelter statesman in Iran,
who had the authority to negotiate a ceasefire now that he's gone. There really is no more off-ramp.
So both sides are committed to a long war of attrition. And the consequences for the
entire global economy are quite dire. That is, I wouldn't say that's the worst case scenario,
the worst case scenario would include a nuclear strike by one or more actors and the destruction of
the oxamask complex in Jerusalem, which would spark a religious war. So that's as bad as it could
get, but you've just described one step before the worst, which is protracted, destructive,
impossible to stop. So my question is, because there are so many global players, big global players,
the US and China, I think, who would be hurt by this. Why is there not an incentive to get
it settled quickly and why can't that happen? Right. So once this war starts, it achieves
a momentum and logic of its own. So the United States doesn't really have an off-ramp, meaning
that if it tries to negotiate a ceasefire with Iran, Iran would ask for reparations about
$1 trillion, basically. It would ask for the United States to leave the Middle East permanently
to ensure its long-term survival. If the United States were to do that, then the GCC nations
would collectively become client states of Iran, because only Iran can guarantee their safety,
as well as use of the shared homoos. The GCC is the basis of the petrodollar. So what the GCC does
is it sells well in US dollars, and then recycles this money back into the American economy.
So if the GCC were to abandon the petrodollar, then this would have severe repercussions on the
American economy. Also, there will be a chain reaction in that Japan and South Korea would look
at what's happened in the Middle East and decide that the United States can no longer guarantee
its their safety. So they would have to militarize and they would have spent all the resources
on adapting to the possible China threat. And then you have Europe and Europe would look at
what happened in the GCC, as well as in Southeast Asia, and they would be like, why are we funding
Russia? Wouldn't it be in our best interest to negotiate a peace treaty with Russia as soon as
possible? What this wouldn't mean, the collapse of the US dollar as a global reserve currency,
remember that America is sitting on $39 trillion in debt. And so the American economy is a
Ponzi scheme that relies on foreign nations to continually buy US dollars. So the US economy would not
be able to withstand essentially America withdraw from the Middle East. So the Americans are stuck
where they are right now, unfortunately. What is the Chinese perspective on this? I mean,
it seems like China has an interest in peace in the Persian Gulf with those seven oil producing
countries. Why wouldn't China step in and try and settle this?
So both the United States and China benefit from the status quo. And China has a best interest
in seeing a very quick solution to this war in Middle East. China imports about 40 percent of
its energy needs from the GCC. So not just Iran and oil, but also a Atari natural gas.
Right. So as you point out, China very much wants to see as soon as possible a ceasefire.
Unfortunately, it is a nature of the Chinese government not to interfere in foreign affairs.
China doesn't really have a geopolitical framework, a grand strategy. It really believes in
global trade. And it doesn't really have a framework for how to resolve armed conflict.
And so Chinese policymakers are really stuck. And in fact, Chinese policymakers have come up
publicly saying that they would like the carnage, the violence in Middle East to stop as soon as
possible, and for the street who moves to open up. But unfortunately, as I pointed out previously,
when a war starts, it achieves a momentum in the logic of its own. It's very hard to stop a war
once it starts. So if your prediction is correct, and I prayed that it's not, I'm sure you do too,
hope that you're wrong, but if you're not wrong, and this continues to grind in the way that it is
now, destroying energy infrastructure, just really destroying the civilizations of the region
and Iran and the GCC, what does that look like in, say, two years globally? What's the effect on
the global economy? Right. So this war, it will accelerate three major trends. And nations
will have to adapt to a new reality in which energy is longer cheap and accessible. The first
major trend is the industrialization, meaning that right now, you just have too many people
living in cities. And you can do that as long as you can import cheap energy and cheap food.
But when cheap energy and cheap food are gone, then you need people to work the fields to grow food
for your economy. So you have to de-industrialize and reduce your energy dependence. Okay, that's one
major trend that we should see very soon. Second major trend we should see is militarization in
that. Before we had tax americana, we're America basically guaranteed global peace. And America
basically prevented nations from going to war against each other. So for example, Trump
brokered a ceasefire between India and Pakistan because these two nations have much hostilities
against each other. But now that America doesn't longer has the aura of invisibility and
now that the American military does not come across as almighty, then America doesn't have the
power to stop kids from attacking each other on the playground anymore. So nations have to
re-militarize, especially nations like Japan, which before we lied too heavily on American
military protection. Okay, so that's number two, the re-militarization of the world. And the
third major trend we should see is mercantilism, meaning that now that global trade is disrupted.
Nations, especially advanced industrial nations such as Japan and Germany, they need to create
their own independence of sufficient supply chains. Fortunately, America doesn't have this issue
because the Western hemisphere is extremely wealthy and abundant in natural resources.
But if you are Japan and Germany, then you have to reach out and expand your borders if you are
to maintain your industrial might. So these are the three major trends we should be seeing very
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this exact dynamic very famously in the last century. And I do think Japan is the big question mark
because traditionally, you know, a rising power, a great power like China, just kind of intuitively
demands hegemony in its own region. Like China controls the east. I would imagine that's the
Chinese perspective. But in the way of that are Japan, the historic enemy, and South Korea.
But particularly Japan. And I know that people in your country are very focused on Japan.
So is it plausible that China allows Japan to become say a nuclear arm to power at this point?
Right. So from the surface, it seems as though Japan has a lot of structural weaknesses.
So for example, it has an aging population. It has the oldest population in the world.
That's a huge constraint on the future growth potential of Japan. Another problem for Japan is
that it is resource-dependent. It relies on imports for its resources. And Taiwan blocks all the
street of Malacca, right? Because Japan requires most of its energy from the GCC through the
street of Malacca. And Taiwan will be a barrier. So if Taiwan were to reunify with China,
then basically Japan can be blockaded and they can be starved. And the other major issue with Japan
is its economy. Where for the past 30 years, it's in a deflationary spiral because of its excessive
debt burden. So there are fundamental weaknesses to Japan. But I'm a historian. I study historical
patterns. And what I've seen is that the Japanese people are incredibly resilient. You go back
to the 13th century and the Mongols admitted not once but twice. And at this time, Japan was very
much a feudal nation divided into different fiefdoms. And they came together as a people to defeat
the greatest empire in the world at that time, not once but twice. And you go to the middle of
the 19th century when China was being carved up by these Western industrial powers. And it seemed
as though Japan was going to be carved up as well. But the Japanese engaged in some called the
Meiji Restoration. And in 20 to 30 years time, they went from a feudal backward nation into an
industrial power that ultimately defeated Russia in the Russian Japanese War of 1990. Right? And
then you go to World War II when American devastated Japan. Not just nuclear strikes, but also
the fire bombings. Yes. So at the end of World War II, Japan was completely devastated. But in like
20 years time in the generation, they became the world's greatest manufacturing power. So I would
not cut the Japanese out. There's something about their culture that is extremely resilient,
extremely entrepreneurial. And I think that given crises, they will come together as a people
and adapt to these challenges. And so if I were to bet, if you give me like a billion dollars and
said, in East Asia, you can invest your money either in China or Japan, or you could invest half
and half. Well, Tucker, I'll be honest with you. I would invest all my money in Japan.
That's a fact. What a fascinating analysis. I agree with you. I just, I mean, intuitively,
I agree with you. But I, I just wonder if China can tolerate that given the history between the
two countries and the focus and just the growth of China. Can they really allow right in the middle of
of East Asia, a competing power? Right. So the major issue with China is that it sells itself
the middle kingdom, you know, China, the middle kingdom, which is to say that the Chinese believe
that they are a universe on to themselves. What happens outside China doesn't really impact China.
So it's important is to maintain a national sovereignty of China because it is a self-sufficient
nation that has actually no interest in the outside world. Japan is completely opposite in that
it is an island and it requires to, it basically needs to restrict resources from other nations in
order to survive as a nation. So these are two very different mentalities where China is very much
an agricultural self-sufficient nation that is insular and conservative and Japan is an outward
looking seafaring nation. Interesting. So it, it sounds like they, they can coexist or you,
well, you just said it, you're not betting against Japan. What about South Korea, which has the
one of the lowest if not the lowest birth rate in the world in contrast to North Korea? And is
basically modeled itself on the United States, I mean, down to the, to the most basic level.
The US pulling back from East Asia is, I mean, that's going to be a transformative thing I would
think for South Korea. What happens? Yeah, South Korea is in a very precarious position,
probably because of North Korea. So once the United States is forced with draw from
Southeast Asia, then North Korea can take an initiative. And the problem with this conflict is that
so the largest city in South Korea, it's only 30 minutes away from North Korean artillery. So in like
a whole day, North Korea could flatten so. And so South Korea is in a very precarious position.
Also, if you look at the economy of so of South Korea, it's a very ossified, very corrupt
system where just a few companies control the entire economy. And this is what's led to
intense competition in South Korea, which has led to the extremely low birth rate in South Korea.
So South Korea is in a very precarious position. But what I will say about South Koreans is that
they are fanatical workers. They work really, really hard. And they have a long memory of
colonial persecution from both the Chinese and the Japanese. And these are fiercely independent
people. So I would not be surprised if North Korea and South Korea were to come to a compromise
at some point, because both nations aspire for national reunification. And because China,
Japan would be in conflict with each other, then the Korean people could actually
navigate this conflict to the benefit. That's very smart. I sense you're absolutely right about
that. Let me just ask you about an observation you made parenthetically a second ago, which is
because South Korea's economy is ossified and centralized. It's a monopoly economy.
It's birth rate is low. What's the connection between economic monopolies and low birth rate?
Yeah, great question. So when you have a monopoly, what you do is you create a hierarchy,
right? Because everyone's trying to get into these companies because these companies are the most
prestigious in South Korea. And South Korea is very much a confusion culture where face is everything.
So the problem though is how do you get into these companies? It's a very prestigious
position where everyone's trying to get in, right? And so you should get in through the
college entrance examination, which allows you to get into prestigious university, right? So
if you are a suffering couple, your strategy is either not to have children because you can't
afford to play this game because you need to send your kid to cram schools, get the best tutors,
basically force all your resources on ensuring the child does well on the college examination so that
he or she can get into some sort. Or you can choose to have, so you can choose not to have any
children because it's expensive for you. But if you choose to have a children, you can only choose
have one kid because it's much more strategic for you to put all your resources into one kid
and spread it over three or four kids. So that's why I don't know, monopoly would naturally
lead to a low birth rate. So what you're saying is intense competition for resources, scarce resources
produces an incentive that results in low birth rate. Exactly because everyone sees themselves
as competitors against each other and you lose the sense of community, right? Because you have a
lot of children because you want to contribute to the community and grow as a nation. But when
you see your neighbor as your enemy, then that means we do your incentive to have children.
Interesting. So what will be the economic effects on China and also on the rest of Asia and
Southeast Asia, Philippines Vietnam, if this energy crunch continues in the Middle East?
The reality is that this war in the Middle East is having a severe impact already on the entire
Southeast Asian economy. So India imports about 60% of its oil from the GCC. Pakistan also
imports a majority of its oil, Japan imports about 75% of its oil from the GCC, China imports about
40%. So all these counties are being impacted and already Thailand Vietnam are running out of fuel.
And you go to a gas station, there's just a more fuel for your motorbike and now people are being
forced to work from home. There's fuel rationing. There's no jet fuel. So this is impacting
all of Southeast Asia. So the question isn't like who will be impacted because everyone's impacted.
The question is who will be most resilient and the most willing to innovate and adapt to this
new reality because we're not talking about short term war. We're talking about a long term change
to a global economy. And I think that China will actually be the least resilient and the least
ready to adapt to this new reality because for the past 30, 40 years China has gotten very wealthy
because of the global economy where it imports cheap energy and exports manufactured goods.
And the entire Chinese economy is currently based on this model. Now for the past 20 years China
has been moving towards a consumer-based economy and more of an invasion-based economy AI.
But unfortunately AI itself is dependent on cheap energy. And Chinese consumers are refusing to
spend money for a variety of reasons, primarily because they are not that optimistic about China's
growth in the future. So Chinese households savings is about 40%. And unless the government is able
to get Chinese to spend more money, then it will be very hard for the Chinese economy to move
towards a consumer-based economy. So all Southeast Asia will be impacted and I think China will be
impacted the most in a long term. Maybe not in a short term because China still has access to
raining oil. I mean, Scott doesn't announce today that they will live sanctions on raining oil
in order to make sure the global economy is not too impacted by this war. In a long term,
the Chinese economy is now much too focused on export and manufacturing in order to shift to a
much more diversified economy. Right. People seem to be more inflamed, just not just emotionally,
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just the West that is locked into the current arrangement where we consume the East produces.
It's the East. They're locked into producing. So this is a massive reorientation for everybody,
as I think is what you're saying. Yeah. And I would say the East is going to be much more
impacted than the West because at the end of the day, the Western Hemisphere, America,
I mean, the wealth in the Western Hemisphere is just tremendous. I mean, the Western Hemisphere
is self-sufficient, but that's not true for Southeast Asia. Southeast Asia is very dependent on
energy from overseas. How does this affect Africa? Right. So with this war in Ukraine and with this war
in the GCC, experts are saying that in the worst case scenario, you could have famine in Africa,
because so much of food and energy sustains the African economy. And so, yeah.
Okay, just moving West now, what about the GCC? What does that look like in five years?
Right. So unfortunately, the biggest loser of this war, regardless of how it turns out,
even the Americans were to win. The biggest loser is the GCC, because for the past 30, 40 years,
the GCC is basically built on a mirage, because it's essentially a desert with very little access
to fresh water and very little agriculture. And so it couldn't really sustain a large population.
But with the petrol dollar and with American military protection, then the GCC nations
felt free to invest in technology that allowed them to go to population. Right. So these
salination plants, modern infrastructure. So you said this was all this massive growth in Dubai,
in Qatar, in Riyadh. And what this war has done is shattered this mirage and revealed the limitations
of the GCC. So, for example, look at Dubai. So Dubai, for many years, as part of itself,
as this safe, very costable politician, very open tax haven. So a lot of wealthy people immigrated
to Dubai. But because of this war, and we're talking about like a few drones hitting hotels,
it's really shattered the image of Dubai. And once you shut up this mirage, you can never,
ever rebuild it again. So the idea of Dubai as the future New York or London, the financial capital
of the GCC, this mirage has evaporated. Iran in five years?
So Iran is being devastated right now. So the Israelis and Americans are attacking
critical infrastructure. So the Israelis attack the largest gas field in Iran. The salination plant
was destroyed. But we also have to remember what is being hidden from us. And what's being hidden
from us is the fact that the Israelis and Americans are trying to destroy the capacity of the state
to govern the nation, basically destroy the state's monopoly on violence. And so what we're hearing
are attacks on police officers, on military installations, and there's talk of special forces
going into Iran and starting to fund, fund dissenting groups, right? Like the Kurds and the
blockies in Southeast Iran. So no matter what happens in this war, it's very hard for the government
to maintain national control, even if they were to survive this war. And also another huge issue for
Iran is that for the past few years, it suffered drought issues. So our culture was heavily impacted.
We were actually talking about moving terrain, like moving these millions of people out of the
city of terrain because the capital can no longer sustain this large population. So this war will
only exaggerate these environmental issues, especially with the attacks on critical
civil infrastructure, for example, dams, reservoirs. These are these salination plants. And
it doesn't take years and years for Iran to recover from this war as a nation. You have basically
the story of ethnic sentiments. You have the destruction of the state's capacity to deliver
basic services. But the good news for Iran is that it seems as though they will be able to
maintain control over the strip of Humus. And that is critical because now they're able to charge
a toll on anyone who uses the strip of Humus. And to talk about 10%, which should generate about
800 billion dollars a year annually for Iran. So the nation will be destroyed in this war. But
if it's able to harness the pride of the Persian people and it's able to unify the Persian people,
it's able to leverage the resource of the strip of Humus effectively, then we can expect Iran to rise
again in like 10 to 20 years time. Where is Israel in a few years from now?
So if you look at the mean beneficiary of this war, it is Israel because Israel has an ambition
called the Greater Israel Project, which is what they believe that their god Yahweh promised to their
ancestors Abraham. And so they believe that Yahweh promised Abraham all the land from the
Nile in Egypt to Frades in Iraq. If you look at the entire map, it also extends to Anatolia,
which is southern Turkey, and even into Saudi Arabia. So if you look at what's happening,
well, it's convenient in that the GCC is being destroyed. Saudi Arabia will probably
draw into this war. This possible Turkey will be drawn into this war as well. And this war
allows Israel to remake the Middle East in its own image. Also, if you think about it,
according to Game Theory, the main constraint to Israel achieving the Greater Israel Project is
actually not Iran, but America. Because America guarantees the military safety and protection
of the GCC, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Iran, UAE, these nations. And so if
the issue is become dominant, it's become the hedgerment of the Middle East. It needs to figure out
how to remove America from the equation. And quite honestly, this war has shown the limitations
of American power. It's really annoyed the American people. The American people do not want this war.
American people don't even understand why America is standing in the Middle East. And so it's very
possible that regardless of what happens in this war, America is forced with draw from the Middle
East, in which case Israel is able to achieve its Greater Israel Project. Standard security cameras
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It was clear to me that that was part of the motive. That Israel understood this and
wrote the United States into this war in order to get the United States out, in order to hurt
the United States and get the United States out of the Middle East. Do you think that will be successful?
I think the way this war is going, this plan will work. And the reason why is, the American
military has not fought a real war for decades. 2003, this war in Iraq was not a real war,
because someone who's saying basically gave up. He didn't have air defense because those
economic sanctions had destroyed his economy. And his logic was this, let the Americans invade.
They can't possibly invade because it did destroy us. That would make Iran, which has hostilities
against America, the regional power. So why would America do this? It is self-defeating.
It is not logical. It is not rational. So I'm not worried about them attacking me.
And he was surprised when they did attack because it was not logical. It was not rational.
But they did attack. It was a cake walk. It took about two weeks. America achieved air
supremacy very quickly. And they rolled into Baghdad in a very, very quickly and toppled the regime.
So that was a very quick and easy war. That fit the military doctrine of shock and awe.
Iran is simply the different. And the American military does not want to fight this war,
because they've wargamed this countless times. And each wargamed they discover that they lose,
because the American military, it's too bulky. It's not as nimble and resilient as the Iranian
military. And we're seeing that play out right now, where you have these devastating
carriers. They've been linking the Gerald Ford, threatening Iran, but not actually doing anything,
because they're afraid of getting too close to the coast of Iran, because then they become
susceptible to drone strikes as well as hypersonic. So the Iranians have prepared this for 20
plus years. They know the entire American playbook, and they have the perfect strategy to counter
the American playbook. So America will have a really tough time, windless war. The great problem,
okay? The big question now is, will America send in ground troops? Because once America sends in
ground troops, then it becomes pot committed. It's mission creep, some hostiles see, it'll be like
Vietnam over. So right now there's talk of 2500 Marines coming in from Okinawa. There'll be
in the Middle East about seven days time. And the talk is, the rumor is, and I don't know, but the
rumor is, the intention is for them to carve Ireland, which is the main oil depold for Iran. So Iran
exports 9% of its oil from that facility, the island. And if the Marines were to take it,
it would be great optics. Trump would look good on TV. It would be a great boost for American
morale. The problem is that you can take it, but you can't hold it, because it's too close to
Iranian coast, and Iran is going to attack with artillery with drones, okay? Which means that you
now have to take on the coast. You have to occupy the coast in quite a forward operating base.
But then you're exposed to the cycle's mountains, right? Which means that you're now forced to
occupy the mountains as well. So it's mission creep. It's exactly like Vietnam where in 1965,
3,000 Marines went into Dak Nhan to occupy an airbase, and like four or five years later,
you have a half a million troops, right? So it's sort of off as a very limited self-defined mission,
but then it just balloons. So America could find itself in the situation very quickly.
If you were the commander-in-chief of the United States, what would you do at this point as of today?
Commander-in-chief, meaning Donald Trump? Yeah.
You get to make the decision, or what does America do next? If it's acting in its own interest,
if it's trying to preserve its power and wealth at this point, what does it do?
Well, first of all, I would acknowledge that all these events are interconnected, right? So
this trigger of China, this war in Ukraine, this war in the Middle East, it's all interconnected,
because the American Empire is too overstretch, and it has its fingers on everything,
and so it allows its enemies to provoke it into these never-ending wars. So what I would do is
basically sit down everyone, including Russia, China, Iran, and say, it's time for a new world
order, where we are partners in this relationship, right? Before America was a Hegemony,
before the U.S. Father was a World Reserve currency, but now what we want to do is open a dialogue
where everyone is respected, where America is no longer the bully, but a winning partner in creating
a new economic order that benefits everyone and not just a few.
I think that's the wisest possible advice, and probably the only path that preserves civilization,
but the one country standing in the way of that is Israel, which is the only beneficiary of this
war, as you just said, I think that's true. Can you think of another beneficiary other than
Israel of this war? Well, Russia benefits, right? Because Russia is going to win this war in
Ukraine. That's correct. And America is forced to live all sanctions, and so now Russia is now
able to take all these war profits, right? And then help the Iranians, finance the Iranians
in this struggle against the Americans, and this really. So the Russians also benefit tremendously
from this war. Yeah, but fair point. Israel has to be constrained by the United States in order
to do what you just recommended it to do. Is that possible? Does the American President have the
authority to control its client state? So if you look at the domestic situation in Israel,
Israel no longer behaves rationally, it is sort of overtaken by eschatological fever, right? So
if you look at videos coming out of Israel, there are rabbis going around saying that this war
in the Middle East, even though it's a strong Tel Aviv, it's good for us because this will lead
to the coming of our masiah. So they believe that it is when Israel is under the most strain,
when the very existence of Israel is threatened, then God will intervene because the Jewish people
will come together as a nation again and commit themselves. We knew their faith in God. And once God
sees the blind trusting after the faith of the Jewish people, then he will save his people by
sending his masiah who will then redeem the Jewish people. So another thing this is secular
temporal matters don't really matter. This war in the Middle East is not an issue. What matters
is divinity. What matters is our relationship with God. Yes. So what matters is faith. Nuclear
bombs go flying doesn't really matter. It's what's so interesting is that you know 25 years ago
at 9.11, whatever you think of how that happened and why there was, I saw it personally,
you know, a political Islam. There were Wahhabis. There were a lot of Islamic radicals around the
world. And for a bunch of reasons over 25 years, that hasn't disappeared. There still exist Islamic
radicals, but it's not an important political force anymore. At the same time, as Islam in general
has become much more moderate and the GCC is the most obvious example of this, there has been a
rise of Jewish Wahhabism and evangelical Christian Wahhabism, so to speak. I mean, you've seen this
eschatological extremism among some American Protestants, Christians, and some Israeli and American
Jews. How did that happen? What is that? Right. So first of all, I don't think we can
overestimate the influence of eschatology in American politics. So I'll give an example where
about a quarter of Americans are evangelicals, and a lot of them are Christian Zionists.
So they believe that Israel is crucial, the linchpin to achieving God's plan and return of Jesus.
And so a very prominent figure that you probably know very well is John Haji, who runs some
and called the Christians United for Israel. It's seven million members, and these are the people
who are financing a lot of the conflict in the Middle East and Israel because they're the ones
who are funding West Bank settlements. And so Christian Zionism, it is an extremely powerful
political force in America. So your question is, how did this happen? And yes, the issue is
that this is a plan that has been in motion for centuries. And it's a very complicated
history, but it involves different religious groups among the Jews, South Indian Frankus,
Shabbat, Louis Rich, which you've talked about, that also involves the Freemasons, the
Knights Templars, the Rose of Crucians, it involves the Jesuits. So you have these different
different secular societies, different religious organizations working together through the centuries
to achieve this plan for the end of the world, which heroes the Messianic Age. And there are
different components of this plan, but the basic components are one is the creation of the state,
the nation's state of Israel, which happened in 1948, and then you need to have the building
of the Third Temple, which requires the destruction of the Isaac Mosque, which could happen during
this war, given what we've seen so far. So they really have close off the Isaac Mos,
as well as other religious sites, like the Church of Holy Sepulchre,
two tourists these past few days. There's rumors that for the past two years,
these really have been conducting these archaeological digs under the Isaac Mosque to
basically destroy the foundations of the Mosque, so that they can control demolition of the Mosque
and blame it on a missile strike from the Iranians. And there's actually talk, among these
released, of using this plan to ignite a war between the Arabs and the Persians. So the
Isaac Mosque needs to be destroyed for the Third Temple. They also talk about this war of God
and Mangaog between Israel and the entire world. Then the coming of the Jewish Messiah,
the creation of the Greater Israel Project, the return of all Jews from the diaspora.
So they're different components to this plan. If you just observe geographical events,
we're seeing these events converge together today. I mean, all these events are playing out.
So it seems as though there are these very powerful shadow forces working behind the scenes.
We don't know who they are, but it seems as though they're able to control
geopolitics in a certain manner as to fulfill their eschatological script.
What role do you think Donald Trump plays in this?
That's a really hard question to answer. So let's look at different possibilities.
Okay? The first possibility is that he's been employed as an actor and he's just following a
script. But he doesn't really know where this movie is going. He's just doing his part,
but he's manipulated behind the scenes by people around him. And when reporters asked him,
why is this war in Iran happening? He did say that his advisors, which includes civil
cough, dirt cushioner, Peter Hexf, Marco Rubio, told him that the Iranians were so close to getting
a nuclear weapon and that the Iranians were attacked first. And so I was basically misled.
And I think that's probably true in that Trump surrounds himself with certain people that have
a certain political eschatological agenda. So that's one possibility that he's just an actor.
Another possibility is that he himself has a mezzanic calling. And what I mean by that is
if you go back to during 2021, he was politically dead, right? Because during six
riots happened. He was impeached twice. And then after he left office, there was law fair
conducted against him. And he went bankrupt. So it was the entire world went against him.
But now he's president of the United States. And so how would he personally understand this?
I think a lot of it is God has asked him to serve. There's a call to serve. And he has to fulfill
a mission. What this mission is, okay? What this mission is, whether it's to save Israel,
whether to save America, whether it's a part of a grander scheme, only he and his heart knows.
And I think no one except him knows, okay? So I think that's another possibility.
And the third possibility is that this is all Israel is doing. Nanyahu is the one who's forced
him into this sort of situation because it's really attacked first. And Marco Rubio said this,
where, you know what, we wanted these negotiations, but this release, we're planning to attack.
If they attack, the Iranians would be compelled to attack both the Americans and this release.
And we did not want to put our soldiers in harm's way, so we attacked with the Israelis, okay?
So it's possible. This is all Nanyahu and all its machining nations. And another fourth possibility
is they have, they have co-opted him. Like there's blackmail on him. There's,
and he has to have no choice but to do what he says because he's compromised in a certain way.
And maybe his family is under threat. So all four are possibilities. And quite honestly,
I have no idea which possibility is the most correct.
Yeah, I don't, I don't think anybody does. And I've really tried to keep, you know, speculation
to a minimum, you always want to believe that people's motives are transparent. They state whether
they're doing what they're doing. But of course, you can never know what's inside a man, right?
Even in yourself, it's hard to know your own motives very often. So I think that's a,
that's a wise take. What happens to North America, United States? And I do want to include
Mexico and Canada. We don't think a lot about those countries, but they're both massive
landmasses and they have big populations and there are neighbors. And so if the world is reorienting,
I think you need to think in terms of continents rather than just nation states. What,
what does that look like in three or four years?
Right. So from a geopolitical perspective, if America is forced to retreat
back into the Western hemisphere, it needs to worry about resources. And so it isn't the best
interest for America to eventually take over and colonize both Canada and Mexico.
Yes. Mexico for its labor supply, Canada for its resources, you know, Canada's probably the
wealthiest country in the world. I know. And so from a geopolitical perspective, if the world
is retreating into self-sufficiency, if there's mercantilism, if there's trade barriers,
then America has actually no choice but to ensure its own supply networks. And that means eventually
taking over Greenland, Canada, Mexico, Latin America, Cuba, Venezuela. So America doesn't only have
much choice in this matter. The same time what we're seeing is that this war, as well as other
events, are causing political fissures in America, especially between left and right. So witness what
happened in Minneapolis in January, right? And so we can expect that as this war continues,
and there's a strong possibility that Donald Trump will call an actual draft in order to
ensure the menpower to fight this war. Then you will have rioting on the streets. You have
massive violence, in which case the National Guard is deployed. There's a plan to deploy the National
Guard to all major American cities by April. And so unfortunately, America is probably kind of
suffer a long many years of sectarian violence. Not a full-fledged civil war, but maybe something
along the lines of the troubles in Ireland. I'm not sure if you've seen this terrible movie call
one battle after another. It's just a terrible movie, by the way, but it gives you insight into
what a civil war might look like, where you have these insertion groups,
fighting against the state. But you expect the United States to hang together as a coherent nation
state. Listen Tucker, the United States is the greatest nation in the world. The people are open,
generous, entrepreneurial, and energetic. The resources of America are infinite. America is a
kind of fortress so that it's protected by two oceans. America doesn't have a pair of
competitors in North America and South America. And so I mean America, regardless of what happens,
America will still come out doing pretty well just because of the peer energy and creativity of
its people. You mentioned Canada, most Americans, or don't even know the capital if Canada,
Canada does not appear on their radar, doesn't figure in their thoughts. But you described it as
probably, quote, probably the richest country in the world. I think that's objectively true.
And yet Canada is not a rich country. In fact, it's getting poorer. Its life expectancy is
declining. Its GDP is declining. And that's on purpose. The nation of Canada has been suppressed
on purpose. Its population is being killed off by the state through its assisted suicide program
and its population is changing through mass immigration against the will of the population. So
that country is being held down on purpose. And my question is, by whom and why?
Sure, that's a very question. And this is something that I struggle with all the time because
I am a Canadian citizen. I went to school there. So my answer is that Canada was never within
nation state. It's more of a glorified resource colony for the British to see the city of London.
And the reality is now that the British are under a lot of strain. The state of London is
under a lot of financial pressure. It sees place like Australia, New Zealand, and Canada.
And what do you do if you have financial issues? You do corporate restructuring. You change
the middle management. Historically, the British got along very well with the Indian elite.
They went into India and stole turns of the hollers from the Indians and the elite were
perfectly happy to help them. So why not use the same model for Australia, for Canada?
So there are millions of Indians who immigrated to Canada in the past five years. And it's put a lot
of strain on the Canadian economy because housing prices have exploded. And so ordinary Canadians can
no longer afford to buy a house. And it's put a tremendous pressure on the Canadian welfare system,
on the Canadian economy. And you would think that the proper strategy would have a moratorium where
they're like, you know what, we've had too many immigrants and we need to close the borders and
absorb these immigrants because we wanted to ensure that these immigrants have proper housing.
They have decent jobs, right? You would think that'd be the right shot at yes. And instead,
Mark Carney goes to India and says, we want more Indians. And also, we'll give you scholarships
to come to Canada to study for free. Meanwhile, there are a lot of Canadians who are homeless,
who are unemployed, and who cannot put food on the table. But hey, we want more Indians.
So if it's not corporate restructuring, if it's not trying to access to Canada, I really don't
understand this strategy for this. Well, I mean, it's a kind of genocide, right, against Canadians,
people whose ancestors built the country. But you wonder what the purpose is, like this is because
it is happening all over the West, all over the English-speaking world in the white countries.
And it's not an accident, it's not organic. So it's a big picture, you know, that spans from
Australia to Ottawa. And what is that? Do you know?
Right. So let's look at Europe. Because in 2014, this was a major training point in Europe,
because you had these tens of millions of refugees trying to escape these wars in the Middle East.
You know, created by America's wars in the Middle East. And they were trying to reach Europe.
And at this point, Europe had a choice. It could choose to close its borders and maintain
its cultural identity, or it could open the floodgates. And Andrew Merkel, the Chancellor of Germany,
she says something really, really famous, which stuck in my mind, which is we can do this.
We are Europeans. Somehow we can take in these millions of refugees and welcome them to
into our societies and thrive as a people. And the complete opposite has happened. You've got
millions of these refugees who fled into Europe, not because of their choice, by the way, but because
their nations were devastated, right? Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq were all devastated in
these wars against terror in the Middle East. So they go, and these are proud Islamists.
They love their religion. They love their family. They love the community. And so they're not
going to absorb themselves and assimilate themselves into Europe. And today, you know, you were
looking at population replacement in a lot of cities. You go to certain places in Britain,
and you might think you're in Cairo or Baghdad. And this is a cost of tremendous conflict
throughout Europe. I want to be surprised, in like two to four years time, you have civil war
break out, insurgencies break out, in places like Britain and France. So the question is,
why is this happening throughout the world at the same time? Why isn't that these different nations?
Whether they're European, whether they're Canadian or Australian, why are they adapting
the same policies? Not just in terms of COVID, right? But also in terms of like immigration.
And so that's one of the great questions that we have to ask about the world we live in today.
It seems as though it's almost a controlled demolition of Western civilization, right?
The Anglesphere. What's in Europe? It seems as though these nations are being destroyed
purposely. For what? And I don't know. But I would just say there's a certain pattern that
is emerged. And the result can only end up in the control demolition of these societies.
I don't think I don't even think that's up for debate. I mean, of course, just look at the
bottom line numbers, you know, of course, the white populations are being killed on purpose.
And the question is, why? And I don't have the faintest idea. And I know there's a lot of
speculation as to who's doing it. I'll just say bluntly, I don't know. I mean, I know who the
instruments are, of course. But Kierstarmher's not in charge of Great Britain. Macron isn't in charge
of France. I'm not sure how many leaders really do have control of their countries. I don't know how
many countries actually have sovereignty. I really don't know the answer. But something is going on.
Is there any precedent for this in history? Have you ever seen anything like this as a historian?
Right. So you look at what's happening in Ukraine, where the war is lost. It was lost two years
ago. The Ukrainians have lost over a million funding men. A lot of their people have fled overseas.
You wonder what happens in this war? Ukraine is finished as a nation state. It is no longer
viable as a nation state. And rather than amid defeat and come to a ceasefire with Putin,
what the Europeans are doing is just saying that we're going to draft our men and have them
fight in the trenches of Ukraine, which would be suicide because the Russians dominate the battlefield
where their drones are artillery and trenches in Ukraine. So it's almost like a suicide mission.
But not only that, but the Germans have said that, okay, we can only draft German
men, but not Islamic men because we're afraid of the loyalty, which means that you have a situation
where, you know, local men like British, French, German men are being sent to die in the trenches
of Ukraine. And you know, back at home, you have this immigrant population that I've not
assimilated into your culture. So it's a really weird strategy. And I don't know who comes up with
these sort of stuff. And look, there's no historical present for this. There just isn't. I mean,
there's been incidents of mass immigration. You go back to the fall of the Roman Empire and how
these, you know, hordes of immigrants flooded the Romans. And it's almost impossible to assimilate
so many people. Eventually, there's going to be a cultural takeover. Eventually, with so many
people who are insistent on maintaining their cultural identity, eventually because they have
more children than you. Eventually, they're going to overwhelm your cultural identity.
Yeah. And I do think that is the story of history. One population replacing another. There's
no such thing as multiculturalism. There's always a dominant culture that, you know, the insist
on dominance, of course. I just don't think there's ever been anyone who thought this could happen
globally, like a systematic targeting of a race for elimination globally. I mean, well, it wasn't
possible until pretty recently, but it would be interesting to know what the plan is. There's
clearly like a plan behind that. There's a plan behind everything. How many Americans do you think
understand what's actually happening in the world right now? You know, unfortunately, I think
that if you are educated in America, you know, I went to Yale, Yale, and so I know a lot of these
Ivy League people. Yes. Unfortunately, we've been indoctrinated to believe certain values.
And these values are not questionable. So, for example, there's a court case that went to the
Supreme Court about affirmative action at the University of Michigan. And affirmative action
is clearly against American values against the idea of American meritocracy, right?
But the Supreme Court said that affirmative action was good because diversity is an inherent
good, okay? And it's interesting because if you go to a place like Yale or Harvard or any of
these Ivy League schools, there's actually very little diversity. I'm talking about intellectual
diversity. Yeah. I mean, like there's different skin color, but if you actually look at the ideas
that they engage with in a classroom, it's a very conformist setting. So it's one of these great
ironies where affirmative action is supposed to bring diversity to the classroom.
But if you go to any classroom in an elite setting, it's extremely conformist. You're not allowed
to pick up these issues about, you know, population replacement, immigration, because then you become
you be called a racist, because and that's the worst thing we call, right? It's I mean, like,
you're better off being called pedophile, right? Pedophiles have more rights now than racist.
So unfortunately, it's not just what's happening in current events. It's also what's happened
in the classroom where and in the culture where people are not even allowed to ask questions that
are like blindly obvious, if you just walk the streets of any, you know, western city.
You've lived around the world. I think you're now in China.
Does the rest of the world see this more clearly?
Yeah. I mean, if you're not in the west and you're not if you're not subjected to this brainwashing
indoctrination that they feed you in the schools, it's I mean, it's obvious. Again, it's
blinding obvious to anyone. If you just walk the streets of any major city in the west. So there's
a joke in China and and so popular. So Chinese don't actually like to go to Canada for tourism.
And someone asks, why don't why does anyone recommend Chinese going to Canada? And the response was,
well, would you recommend someone going to India, right? So it's a bit racist. It's very racist,
okay? But I mean, I mean, you know, it's obvious to people.
It's just interesting because like I'm not defending the whites. I am white, of course,
but white people have done a lot of bad things. Just like getting people do a lot of bad things.
But in general, people like to go on as you just noted, vacation and white countries,
because they're pretty nice. So I think you'd have to say if you took the emotion out of it and
just like looked at it net net, whites have been, you know, pretty big addition to the world,
invented a lot of stuff, created a lot of beauty, created places people like to go on vacation,
which really is a good test. So why would you destroy all that?
Look, so in my school, I teach a great books. I teach western civilization. I teach Homer,
Bailey at the Odyssey. I teach Plato, the Republic. I teach Dante, the Divine Comedy. I teach
the Bible. And my students love it because western civilization, it's not about people being white.
It's really about what it means to be human, right? And what it means to be spiritual and to have
connections with the vine. So it's unfortunate that just when the world needs western civilization
the West decides to destroy its own civilization. I mean, Homer, Dante, Plato, Shakespeare,
the Bible, these are timeless classics that speak to every human. I know because I teach in China
to Chinese students, where I actually know exposure to western culture, yet they fall in love with
Plato, Dante, Homer and Shakespeare. And why is that? And it's because there is eternal truth
embedded in their words. And so universities, western universities ought to be the places,
the fortresses that are the greatest offenders of western civilization. But if you go again to
these elite universities, Yale Harvard, they are the most critical of western civilization.
They don't teach Homer and Dante and Plato. And it's like, if you don't teach these classics,
what's the purpose of university? I always thought the university was the heart and center of
civilization, right? It's like what monasteries were in the middle middle evil age. And I thought
these professors, they would dedicate their lives to promoting the classics. But instead they now
promote complete nonsense like DI. And yeah. Of all the, and this is my last question.
Professor, and thank you. It's been a wonderful conversation. And I hope it won't be our last
tonight. And I hope we can have dinner when we're on the same continent. But this is my last
question. Since you've traveled so much and lived so many places and speak multiple languages,
where would you say the part of the world that's most hostile to western civilization as you
described it is? Try to understand where the sustainability is coming from.
Well, I would say, um, Karen, uh, Britain, Western Europe. I would say these places are the most
hostile towards western civilization. Uh, Chinese people have tremendous respect for
western civilization. Uh, in fact, in China's, you know, in the process of promoting the classics,
Plato, Homer, Shakespeare in China, because Chinese recognize the tremendous cultural value
and immense eternal truths embedded in these classics. So, so we're in a very weird situation where
the West is destroying itself by abandoning what makes it great, which is, you know, these classics.
I think if we talk longer, I'm going to start to cry on camera. So I'm going to,
I'm going to take an emotional break here. Uh, Professor, thank you. Okay. No, I'm half kidding. No,
it's, it's emotionally resonant for me because I know that you're telling the truth and it
comports with everything that I've seen. And so it's hard to accept something that's true. But I
think what you're saying is true, unfortunately. So, uh, bless you for this. And I hope to see you
again soon. Thank you. Yeah. I really enjoyed it, Tucker.
The Tucker Carlson Show



