Powder keg Politics and Protests

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Hello and welcome to Pat Tupar. Today we're joined by a former T-Chicken

form, a political correspondent, Lea Veradkar, Anonia Care. Thank you both. Very much to join us

to talk about what has been an exceptionally dramatic week. When we did our last Pat Tupar last

week, it was Brenda Parr and John DC who were with us. I mean, we had to record on a Thursday

morning because I wasn't around on the Friday morning. When we sat down to record the word

had just been announced by Jim O'Cala and was sending in the Army. Was that in some respect,

you think, going in maybe a little bit of a tipping point and that reinvigorated the protestors

and actually also appalled some people that the idea of the Army going in,

or was it actually a mistake in a different way that once you promised to send the Army in,

you've got to actually do it because later that day I was down in Cork and while the white

gate terminal has been picketed, the Army jeeps and lorries had left Collins barracks in Cork,

but the defense forces had to put out a statement saying, well, actually no,

they haven't gone to white gate. They've gone up to Kilworth in North Cork to do exercises

in preparation for heading off to Lebanon next month. What do you think about how that particular

angle perhaps influenced things? I think last week was a reminder of how important language,

tone, approach, leadership style is in these moments of conflict where you're trying to deescalate.

And I was in a Ryan Tang here in Southern City center and she was in wednesday,

generally on the bike at all felt, you know, it was quiet. It was the area's protest because

engines were turned off. The city was out of standstill, but there was nice vibes and you felt

that there was a lot of collaboration, Gauri D out and about were protesters. You did feel

the shift come Wednesday and Thursday in an out of town of fringe groups trying to kind of piggyback

off the success as it was perceived of the protests grinding a city to hold on

or the parts of the city. And you could probably by Thursday,

understand what Jim O'Callum was trying to do in terms to trying to balance public safety

with your right to protest, but you don't have a right to blockade and reduce people's ability

to be mobile around the country. But in that moment of trying to balance, I think when you talk

about the army, it has to feel like your last resort. It has to feel, I think, in the minds of

the public, you've pulled all the levers available to you. You've explored all of your options and

scenarios that there has been a lot of work in the background that you've hit this breaking point

moment of escalation. So I think when you pull that lever off threatening army, now I know he was

careful about language and maybe it is open to interpretation and hindsight of how much he was

trying to escalate the language. But when you pull that lever to your point, you have to convert

then some of that awareness into action and language measures. And I think in that moment,

it probably actually only reads the tempers, the anger of frustration of a lot of protesters

around the country that by Friday lunchtime, you had the teacher coming out trying to talk things

back a little bit to prepare for negotiations. It could be that he was maybe too formal and legalistic

in the way that he expressed that he needed to actually say in plain language, we're not going

into remove people. The army has the ability to lift these trucks out of the way in the tractors

and that's why we're calling them in. And I think if he had his time back, this was I think at the

time, only a statement that went out. This wasn't followed up at a doorstep where you would have

political correspondence, get into ask questions, kind of break it down, find a new ones.

And how you communicate verbally is very different often, of course, to the legalistic language

of a statement. So I'm sure if he had his time back, you might have done that statement,

followed up at a doorstep. So what the public are hearing is that new ones, that wiggle room,

where you're trying to demonstrate. This is how far it could go, but we're still here in a process

and we're working a process. There's loads to start and points. I've got to chose them, but I just

decided we'd go in on this particular one. Because I think it actually has also caused something

of a rift between Finaffle and Finnegale. Because it's Finnegale's Helen McIntee,

is the Minister for Defence, who would have been required as well to send out the army.

And there was a little bit of a feeling that perhaps she was maybe reveling would be too strong

a word, but maybe enjoying the discomfort of Jim O'Callaghan, given that she came under a

quite a lot of flack in the way as Minister for Justice. She handled the November 2023 riots

when Jim O'Callaghan might not have been particularly kind to her. Yeah, I imagine that's

not forgotten either by Helen or within the Finnegale party, but to answer the wider point,

when the Guardian went in and broke up the blockades, they did so very efficiently, very effectively

and very quickly. I think we're probably focusing too much on Jim O'Callaghan here. When you

use language like National Sabotage, which is what the T-Shick said, when you talk about people

holding the country to ransom, which is what Sean Canny said, and you talk about bringing the army

in, which is what Jim O'Callaghan did. You'd want to be doing it right away.

Yeah, immediately. The minute that that was going to happen.

Well, maybe you'd even have that operation underway, and you would then go out and say to the people

of Ireland, protests are legitimate in a democracy, but blockades that stop people going to school,

going to hospital, going to work. That's not acceptable in a liberal democracy. It's a violation

through law, and an operation is now underway, and then you use that language, I think. I think

that would have been maybe a different approach. The hindsight of course is wonderful.

And you think that these protesters have now essentially been rewarded and will probably feel

emboldened to go and do it again if oil prices remain high? Do you remember that the Gilles

zone in France, similar thing happened. They won some concessions, and there were on and off

protests of a similar nature for three years in France. Really was COVID at the end of that. The

BBB burger or whatever in the Netherlands was similar. So I'm not saying that's going to happen

here, but that is a risk. And Bear in mind, who a lot of these people were, and they have the

legitimate concerns about rising costs and worry about their businesses, I get that. But who

are they? They're largely a relatively well-off bunch of people who own businesses, own property,

own land, own machinery, already benefit from a whole range of government subsidies, and already

benefit from a whole range of tax concessions. The plain people of Ireland are the two million

plus POI workers and their families, and maybe they're wondering now what this is all about,

and you can see the response from the trade unions already, and a very old stack of

response. As we're recording on Friday morning, there is a meeting today with the trade union

movement and the government. And yeah, you can see by on Reedy, and others from ICTU are saying,

well, we abide by the rules, we abide by the processes, what are you going to do for us?

If you're a doctor or a teacher or a farm worker or a factory worker or you work in

in Tesco, you have to have a ballast, you have to have seven days notice, you have to provide

minimum access for emergency care and so on. And when you see people being treated in a different

way, I think a great tricky environment for the government now, both in relation to the next

round of public sector pay, and then also creates difficulties for the budget in October.

And it's a very tricky moment for a government where you've had these decades-long conventions,

these social partnerships, efforts to lead by listening, to bring your stakeholders in,

to do pay deals through the years with public sector, with the IFA, with your lobby groups.

But obviously the nature of how all of those conventions work are changing in the era of social

media where everyone who owns a device, everyone who can create an account on the platform can go

and begin lobbying, put a video on TikTok and rack up 200,000 views in a matter of ours as a

singular farmer and lead people to protest. And you look at how the nature of protest has even

changed in the last couple of months, I think has to give the government pause because look at the

board B of five. Well, what was the lesson there even in January, February? They did a sit-in

protest for five weeks. What was the outcome of that? There's a review now into the governance

of board beer. Of course, the chairman there will say I've done nothing wrong and simply

executing on a legal contract. But now those that shouted the loudest there, did a disruptive

sit-in protest have gotten a win and outcome of sorts. So if we reflect back on the months,

like I've been thinking a lot about this moment, we find ourselves in like January, if we think

back to our 50 days, a consecutive reign and the frustration and anger of farmers there,

we look at inflation, we look at the energy prices, we can all feel this moment of disconnect

where online media is removing us further further into our own filter bubbles, we're constantly

talking about the advent of AI and how it's going to take over her jobs. And you're leaving

very well-meaning. In many cases, people who went out to protest in good faith in the last week,

back now looking at the norms and conventions, and it has to be asked by this government,

do they need a new approach? We'll probably get on to leadership and all of that. But there is

this question in this moment of in a world that is rapidly changing on a week where the IMF is

coming out and saying things of abruptly darkened. There's definitely headwinds around economic

change, but you've got these rising levels of anger frustration on the ground. How are those

two things going to meet again? That you can come back to a town square of facts, come back to

places where you can have stubborn opinions but loosely held and find deals compromise and

negotiation. I didn't send it to you because I only got it late last night from core research,

some market research they've done on public attitudes, but it quite clearly showed that the

rural urban divide, which seems to be emerging in Ireland, that the further away from Dublin,

you went, the more the support there actually is for the protesters. And it started to

got me thinking as to wonder, do we actually have a split in the way that you know, America,

they talk about the flyover states, but all the economic power is concentrated on the eastern

west coasts, you know, with some exceptions such as Texas or whatever, but you have in the middle

of the so-called flyover states, it's, and has been there for well over a decade and has contributed

to the rise of MAGA, this level of dissatisfaction feeling that people have been left behind

and find it difficult in the year of technology and all the rest, but are we actually experiencing

something similar to that in Ireland? And I would two things that add to that. When you think

of the United States, we've got these so-called news deserts for the last 10, 15 years,

when you're small towns and villages, the newspaper is defunct, the radio station has gone out of

business because we all know the media journalism model has broken down. So when you don't have,

and I see it in Monin, the Norden standard, we've lost that in the last just two months,

there is now no centralized local newspaper in Monin. So what happens in these places where you

don't, again, have your central archive and resource to go and find fact opinion, but have the

freedom to disagree and instead you're being sent more and more through the algorithms,

through the filters to confirm your biases. So you look at the United States, news deserts

became hugely problematic, and we see how that's playing out today in terms of a division

being sold. And I think secondly, to your point about this rural urban divide,

is it by accident or design today when we look at a survey of faint-of-fall TDs in the Irish

times? Well, it's urban city TDs who responded, and it's very notable that they

TDs, the half who didn't, are your rural TDs down the country.

And the longer you respond to the Irish times, there's a dollar in standard.

What is the almost a pact of we're holding cancel as your rural TDs on the future leadership of

Miehol Martin? I think on your right, one of the big differences between the US and European

countries, and it's very evident to me when I'm there, and I make a point of paying attention to

US media, because I talk about these things and write about them, so I need to learn about them.

What's really absent from in America is any form of public service media, and I think more so than

ever in the age of misinformation, disinformation, algorithms that reward engagement and emotion,

not fact or truth, is the need for for public service media and the funding indeed of things

like local radio and local media. Well, I could have come back to the rural

local urban divide in a minute, because we haven't finished on with that, but you have opened

the door to me about Patrick O'Donovan. So what did you make of our minister who has a degree of

responsibility for media going a bit like Brendan Carr, the FCC in the United States,

a suddenly making comments about the quality of the reporting done by the media on the protests?

What did you make of that? Yeah, I think he was wise to walk back from it and he did.

I suspect he was told to walk back from it, judging by the comments that Simon Harris made

subsequently that there was no need for a review into our tea, but was it not just another example

of Patrick O'Donovan been quite unwise, maybe perhaps engaging his mouth before his brain?

I'm sure you would have done that on occasion. What do you think, are you?

I would say that more than ever, we need a strong media. I think a free media is the absolute

cornerstone of any democracy. And in weeks like this, where you can see some of the fringes of

democracy, in picked a way out, we need to be able to come back to places where you have the

freedom to debate and disagree with each other to have places like the media where you can have

facts and opinion and analysis. We need that more than ever given the stage of social media.

And it would seem to me and it's obviously backed up with the National Union of Journalists this

week. The minister had no authority under the Broadcasting Act to come out and talk about a review,

to talk about the powers of commission, the manner, whether they could investigate and review

how the media had treated what he saw, as a quote-unquote, lob-sided coverage and a feeling on his

side that there maybe had been more coverage given to the protesters than to have a point.

Yeah, so I was going to ask what do you think?

Well, inevitably, when reporters are going out and going to protest and barricades,

you're going to hear those voices. But I tried to read a lot this week, I tried to make sure you

were listened to a lot of live radio shows. I heard those voices coming through in terms of the

stories of people trying to go about their way, the stories of people feeling like that there were

people who were blocking the right of passage. You were hearing those stories come through.

So I don't know if that's entirely fair. And I think journalists go to huge efforts to try and

find balance. But you look at what the NUJ came out this week and said, describing the comments

as sinister and deeply disturbing. I am very glad that the Tornish doves, I'm in horror,

saw fit to come out. And it would seem the minister himself has rolled back de-escalated it.

In fact, you said Torn, what do you think? So I have to ask you what do you think?

Well, in relation. So just leaving the science, you know, the Patrieve Donald Trump walked it back

and he was wrong to sort of put the pressure on the media like that. At the same time,

was there something that he could say that maybe the media could have performed better

in not maybe platforming people who although they were protesting, some of them were pretty

vile opinions. And I've had pretty vile social media posts, which would normally disqualify many

people from getting an airing if those have been known about in advance. Yeah, like it's hard

to judge that because, you know, nobody watches the whole media. We all just look at our phones,

are we turn on the radio, we turn the TV and we get a sample of what the media is reporting.

I didn't feel personally that it was particularly upset from what I saw, but what I only saw,

what I saw was only the sample of what I saw. And to speak to your point, it was actually the media

who exposed all those things. You pointed out that one of the leaders had a serious tax conviction,

had been guilty of cruelty to animals, that another had talked about not being worried if Greta

Thunberg got raped because of reviews on time and action. You know, some of these are pretty

unsavory people. How did we know that? It was actually to my knowledge. Work as a media.

The journalists doing their job and in our regard. And I think it's important. We find those voices,

like media is there to try and ensure that there's diversity, inclusion that you are trying to

bring voices and profiles that represent your communities with that. The job equally of media

is to investigate, is to fact check as you go and to try and ensure that there is balance. And I

think for the most part, and back to our earlier point, I think we have a very responsible,

accurate media in this country that we should be very grateful for on weeks like this when we

compare again back to United States. Okay, but let's talk a bit more about this rural urban divide.

And it is interesting. I think there is this perception that of deep population of rural

Ireland, which actually isn't quite accurate when you look at the figures, then this perception

perhaps at all rural Ireland is agriculture based, which again isn't necessarily the case.

If you look at the proportion of people who are working in agriculture and infarming as part

of the overall population, you start having to wonder that they're getting a disproportionate

influence over political decisions, because you mentioned there on your about the protests

with the Board BS situation, but I suppose even more significant,

a nitrate directive was put in place for I think it's only about 7,000 farmers who actually

benefit from that, but a lot of political capital is used up in the European Union in getting

that. You also have, but far more significant, Ireland would benefit enormously from the

mercilessor deal, and yet we had the government voting against it, because it had promised that in

the programme for government again to keep rural treaties happy. So could it be that we actually,

maybe for historical reasons, are maybe giving too much power to the farmers?

I think that's actually playing out at the moment. If you look at most of Ireland's history,

what was good for farmers and the wide agriculture industry was good for Ireland, so you go back

to the land reform movement before independence, what was good for Ireland was crucially tied up

with what was good for farmers, tenant farmers being able to buy their own land,

even when we joined the European Union, the huge benefits there were for agriculture,

and I think what we've seen happen in the last 10 or 20 years, and it's not really being

commented on or written on much, is we're now in a space where things are actually starting to go

the other way, is the what's in the interests of farmers and agriculture industry is by a large

not in the interests of Ireland as a nation, and that's starting to play out in farmers and

people in that sector don't quite realise that yet. They still see themselves as the people who

bring money and jobs into Ireland, where actually at the time they bring costs on Ireland.

And they also argue that we're the people who are feeding Ireland, and you know,

which is also not true. Yeah, 80% of the food that we consume is actually

imported, so that means that if you don't have the hauliers bringing the food in, yes,

then we suddenly have a problem, Irish farmers cannot feed the country.

And it's actually worse than that, we now have so many cattle in Ireland that we can't grow enough

grass to feed them, so we bring in grain from South America, from mercilessor countries to feed

the cattle, and we bring in oil-based fertilisers, fertilisers from other parts of the world,

and that's that includes our rivers, and then we all paid the bill.

But that was predictable. When the cap on dairy production was removed, we knew that was going

to happen, we knew the farmers were going to invest in expanding the size of the herd.

That's only about a decade ago. And I think they can reasonably turn around and say,

you told us to expand dairy production, you told us to go down this route of farming,

and now you're changing your mind again, but like the bogie wedding, you told us to drain the bugs,

now you're telling us to rewet the bugs, so I can understand those kind of frustrations,

but it doesn't change the facts of the truth here. I do think one positive about Ireland,

though, is the gap between urban and rural, is not as deep as it would be in the US,

or France, for example. You know, I'm a very urban person. I live in a terrorist house

inside the canals here in Dublin, but I'm only one generation from the farm,

and that's the norm, I think, in Ireland. So, you know, everyone's cousin or everyone's.

Your mother came from the farming community. You waterfront.

Yeah, my cousin's a dairy farmer. My uncle and grandfather ran a college business,

you know, so even though I'm as urban as they come in some ways, it's not like America or France,

where we're remote from each other, and I think that's why we can understand each other better

than in other countries. But we also need to be maybe a little bit more honest about each other,

and people in rural Ireland are very quick to tell people in urban Ireland,

that, you know, we're the real workers, we're the ones paying all the bills, we're the ones

eating the country. I think maybe we need to be a little bit more blunt in urban Ireland and say,

actually, that's not the case. We're the ones paying all the bills, and you're the ones

who are in receipt of a lot of subsidies and a lot of tax benefits that other people don't get,

and maybe we need to sit around the table and have an ask discussion about some of that kind of

stuff. I think weeks like this expose the tension between a government wanting to do the right

thing here in the here and now, because we have such an import dependency when it comes to fuel,

and therefore looking at ex-ice duties, et cetera, looking after farmers in terms of their legacy

systemic needs and issues. So you're trying to do the keep the lights on the businesses usual,

and yet we have to have an eye to a future that is about renewable energies, that is about

sustainability. Like we know that future is the one that we all have to aspire to and have an

ambition towards. And it's that classic question of when you look at the farmers this week and trying

to kind of help their livelihoods provide those supports and yet have an eye to electrification,

renewables, how do you do both? How do you go out every day as a government? How has the crops

already sewn that keeps the business as usual on, keeps the lights on? But then sew the fields of

the future to make sure that you are creating an Ireland of 2030 and beyond that can withstand

future energy shocks like this because that we've got more renewable energies electrification

grounded here in the country like this. See, this protestor wasn't just about fuel prices,

was it? I mean, I think this tapped into something more that's going on among some people,

and it became the relevance of an anti-immigrant protest in this as well, some of the individuals

and I suppose I can understand and see that there are parts of rural Ireland which feel

that they have been left to cope with things like losing the local hotel in the local town or

village because it has become an eye pass center. And suddenly seeing a large influx of people

from overseas, but it's more visible and more noticeable isn't that then when people are

simulated into a city. Like I live very close to an eye pass center in Dublin, literally less than

a two minute walk, but because the area is so busy and because it already is a largely multinational

area, it isn't as noticeable, but when you do it in a small rural town, it becomes more noticeable.

Yeah, no, I think that's a fair point. And again, I live in the south of the inner city.

It's one of those areas, you know, in the maps you see online where the majority of the people

are not Irish or it's not far off. That's where I live. I'm absolutely fine with that. I like it,

but it is a totally different story. Then when you have a small rural town or a small rural village

and then there's this one place in the town or village which now has 60 or 70 people from overseas

and of course because it's direct provision and they're not working or they can't work,

you know, it's a whole different dynamic and yeah, I can totally understand why people in rural

towns and villages don't like that. They see a hotel that provided amenities, that provided

employment now being taken up by people who are awaiting a decision on immigration protection.

Even though social outlets are, you know, where one particular hotel in my mother lost her

military in North Cork, now the hotel, it was slated for an bypass center. It didn't happen

because of the change about a year ago in relations they know if it's the only hotel in the

town then you actually don't turn it into an bypass center, but the hotel has been shot for quite

a while and it has lost its things for things since like funerals, you know, having a thing like a

local hotel or any other convenience or all those social things. It's not just business.

When some people are visiting from abroad and where they stay so like I totally get that, now the

problem that we had certainly when we were in government is we just needed to find accommodation

for people quickly and we got to the point where we couldn't. We actually got to the point where

we couldn't no longer provide accommodation for single men and therefore we had encampments on

the canal and so on. One thing though I think hopefully it is a positive in terms of public

policy and for the government is the numbers are now starting to fall. There's still people coming

in but they're coming in at a much lower rate. I remember reading you the day that dozens of

hotels now that had been used to accommodate Ukrainians have now gone back to use as normal

hotels. Hopefully we're at the peak of that. Of course the big risk is that once again this is

not something when we're at control. If for example President Putin is successful in Ukraine and

defeats that country we will see millions more refugees coming west and that's why I made this

point in my cons on a times last weekend the people who are criticizing the support that we

provide for Ukraine actually are not seeing the bigger picture because it's not just about our

international legal obligations and moral obligations and all that stuff and all that stuff is

important. International development and supporting Ukraine and all we do is pay our share or one or

two percent of the European contribution to Ukraine. If Ukraine is defeated millions more people will

flee west. They will not want to live under Russian occupation and tens of thousands maybe

hundreds of thousands of them will arrive in Ireland and they'll have to be accommodated for us.

So I really think we need to push back against this idea that by providing money for international

development by supporting Ukraine that this is just some sort of international legal obligation or

some sort of a moral thing we're doing because our main great people we're doing this we're doing

this stuff because it's totally in our interest. I think it would be a mistake though to only look at

immigration as being one thing that that managed to piggyback off these protests. This did feel

like a perfect storm moment after months of some businesses obviously having to deal with

auto pension enrollments and minimum wage increases all which are right and proper but have put

burden back on small businesses. We could see the housing issue come through again last week.

You could see obviously with an Irish presidential election only months ago the amount of people

who spoiled votes like there has been a rising level of discontent on a range of issues and you

could see all of those issues starting to piggyback hitched their wagons to that last week.

Not just immigration immigration was obviously in there and as we of course we know misinformation

disinformation in some instances fueling then some of this anger vulnerability resentment but I worry

in all of this that there is a lack of decorum and respect and the ability to debate in a very

healthy respectful way is getting lost in the last 10 days and there's going to have to be massive

need for retrospection of everybody's behalf. Well we need to take a break.

I'm just happening all over the world to say look at the level of discourse now either in

the House of Commons or in the US. Are you a European parliament? Yes it's really descending

into. Okay we need to take a break. When we come back I want to talk about how the opposition

parties have behaved during all of this. I want to talk about Finafall in particular in

Meal Martin's position and also the Helioes and many other things very busy week back after

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Welcome back to path to par Leo for adka on your care with me. So let's talk about

here should let's start with the healy rays. Why are we laughing already the minute we mention

the healy rays I wonder. It's such a sense of inevitability to this like you know putting

coalitions together it's it's hard fought obviously Leo has a lot of expertise in this so

I think anyone who watched politics and current affairs but all of the stuff said there is going

to be an exit point there is going to be an off ramp up at some point for the healy rays. I did

enjoy Miriam Lorde this week when she called them did the bog off brother is buy one minister get

one back bencher free and was always that element of one was going to go overboard you were going

to get the second and look still the government has a massive majority I think the vote of

confidence in the t-shirt was 92 to 78 in the end but it is a reminder like I think what got

lost this week was that IMF signaling there are dark headwinds ahead and here we've had headlines

about healy rays. There's a couple of things that Michael healy ray said one of his shall we say

exit interviews conducted I think with virgin media television outside a dialer and um he's

sort of indicated he was minister for the people to carry at no you're a minister for the people

of Ireland when you become a junior minister but he also said you know we talk about rainy day

funds and the rain is pouring down now and my major reactions that is no it's not Michael you know

yes there's a bit there's been showers rainy days when there's a quarter million people on

employed yeah and instead of them paying taxes you have to find money to yeah to actually that's

a rainy day so I thought he actually completely misjudged where we are economically in relation to

I mean I wonder as well how much of that was down to do Michael healy ray really want to resign

and is Michael healy ray actually feel that he didn't want the 505 million package

that's been put in place I think he was having his cake and eating it to a certain extent wasn't

he you know and that he was trying to be a minister in one hand and he was trying to be the

populist on the other hand and I think his hand may have been forced by his brother Danny that he

realized that his position would have become untenable if he had gone in and vote a conference in

the t-shirt and Danny had gone to the benches opposition benches and said no conference

that he was then left and he was probably forced by Danny's actions to resign his position

and and the answer is we may never know because I think how the orchestra is it and pulled it off

not element of surprise and therefore being able to get to walk out the plant and do your

fist pump and think you're right he was trying to wear two caps in in many respects and for some

time you know what your government minister cap but then your your people of carry and always

trying to kind of watch for for the headwinds and find the pulse of of of the public and obviously

there's a calculation being made by the healy rays of where representing our constituents those

who vote for us this is the right thing and timely thing to do but you are right on this thing

the word surplus like when you watch a lot of online commentary people are able to quote the

surplus very very quickly but we all remember in 2008 2009 how quickly all of this can change and

I certainly as a political correspondent back at that time I've had the muscle memory kicking in a

lot this week off we're getting distracted here we're solving problems by throwing money out

isn't there are times where that's right and appropriate but is now a time where you should be

using your surplus though for long term strategic planning that futuristic piece as opposed to

the day-to-day tactical throwing money a problems when if you could get up ahead look around

corners scenario plan you could actually be future-proofing a little bit more I'm I'm surprised

to this Sonya given that I've sort of would have been working at that stage right in a couple of

books about what happened and that time I think this time is different in that it's a different

set of circumstances but also we don't have the fundamental problems the likes of the banks

yeah we don't have a property bubble well prices are elevated shall we say we've got to

yeah but we don't have the vulnerability it is not that one no

no we had then was a credit boom yes and we don't have that so we've it's the corporations

yeah so I would like to think as a country and as a people we've built up a resiliency since

2009 we've spreader options we've got start-up scale-ups we've local sustainable jobs but where

we have a weakness is incorporation tax as we worry about at times we've been hearing about

windfall taxes for years and they're vulnerable and they have if anything they just kept increasing

and I think we'll continue increasing all these multinational are committed to Ireland it makes

sense for them to be in Ireland and even what Trump has done in relation to tariffs and taxation

has not had an impact I think I think I think you're right and there is a report out from the IMF

deal today and nobody can predict the future but the IMF aren't the worst at us and they were

saying that I think Ireland and Cyprus and maybe Sweden were the only countries that would still

have a budget surplus through to about 2030 and the view that I've actually always taken on the

corporate tax issue is we're in a sweet spot it's actually going to last for quite some time

but it won't last forever and the point at which we start to we start to see that that fall off

in my view is probably in the early 2030s so I would suggest that we should be using the

services from that know for capital investment rather than current investment and current spending

and that is that in recent years we've repeated the mistakes of the past in not using unexpected

revenues for actually investment in infrastructure yes no we spend it instead of current

expenditure yes I know a lot of it is going into the future Ireland fund you know for future

capital spending so we don't have to have that stop start investments like we've had too much

you know in the past in Ireland metro on metro off that type of thing and also funding for future

pensions and costs as our population ages the difficulty ramping up capital spending more

and it has been ramped up a lot I can't remember these act figures but I think when I started

off as T-Shick it was something like three to six billion year and now it's like 13 to 16

billion year like it has been ramped up a lot you get into capacity constraints there's only

so many people who you can get to build your houses your metros your schools your everything

well we would have to get to the point where all you do by spending more is make things more

expensive if you don't actually get anywhere infrastructure and I think we probably are

not off not off that point but getting back to being a minister and Michael H. D. Ray

resigning like it in order to be a minister you know I think it's a great T. D by the way look at

the vote he gets he gets back to people he works really hard he's on the phone all the time

getting back to people he clearly services consistency really well he's a great advocate for

his decisions and carry but that's the job of a T. D. To be a minister you have to be willing

to be unpopular because a minister has to be willing to say no to most people most of the time

and to disappoint your own supporters pretty regularly and there's probably never been easier time

in Irish history than to be a minister now and that was standing social media and all the rest of us

because they don't have to make cuts I think the next government the one that gets in in 29

or whenever that's the government that's going to be in a very different place in the current

government because that's when the corporate tax receipt start to run out and that's when you get

into having to make the kind of decisions that we would have made in that and the Kenny A. McGillmore

governments like I remember my first budget I cut 400 million euros out of my department spending

there's almost nobody in the doll except maybe Bill Martin who is the memory of making those

kind of decisions and people are now in the opposition benches if they have the fortune to be

in government in in 29 30 31 they're gonna they're gonna have a rude awakening I think and just

on the point about the bubble and multinationals where I would have a worry if if AI automation and

all of that works and where this huge investment but potentially over leveraging and that works right

high rates of profitability more corporation tax but equally if it works you were going to see

job displacement there are just a lot of jobs in this country in tech multinationals these huge

organizations that will be replaced by AI so that's where I do think we have to have a lens on

the speed of evolution and innovation when it comes to AI and where that potentially has

opportunities for career success yeah I mean there was a report recently an estimate I think by

the Department of Finance 200,000 jobs been vulnerable because of AI and those are jobs which

tend to be high taxpayers there's an income tax hit of a common relation to that as well but those

people won't be going out protesting and they won't be blocking the roads and all the rest of it

yeah so let's talk about the other parties that were involved what about the behavior of the

likes of independent for change or sorry independent Ireland so I keep the word salad of all these

independence independent Ireland in particular and then the likes of people before profit I see Paul

Murphy was in the oil on Thursday advocating more radical protests and all the rest of it despite

the fact that when he went down to join the protesters on our country he was sent away with a

flee in his ear by them what did you make of the performance of the various opposition parties and

will they end up maybe perhaps some of them regretting getting into bed with these people

oh there's so much in that isn't there um I think certainly for independent Ireland which is

you know a right-leaning populist outfished um I'm not sure how much of a party it is yet

but they latched on to the protests and the protesters latched on to them so they're certainly

political beneficiaries from this um that form of populism um I think for the left-wing populists

like Paul Murphy and others it's a really a case of e-report you so increasingly people

um of the radical left are seen to be part of the great focus establishment um it's weird that

this has happened but but it has happened and the people who would have been out with Paul

Murphy protesting against water charges um are probably no longer supporting him they're now

angry about fuel prices migration and so on and that again you saw that in the election really

struggled to get elected barely got elected barely won the last seat so did the shift in Ireland

the angry populist group have moved from voting using their protest vote to vote for far left

or even should change and now to connect to now go for populist right i think the opposition

parties um struggle to communicate two things being true at the same time you know expressing your

right to peaceful protest but not your right to blockade uh people's right of movement and mobility

and it was very hard to get very clear succinct concise answers for members of the opposition

of times this week and of course you have an opposition of moments like that where it's like

through the balance sheet added um but again it's the question of well is that sustainable given

the headwinds we've talked about but we've created on this culture i think on government and

opposition a culture of expectation and an expectation of intervention and so even after a

500 million package being announced and you could argue some of that obviously we just swept out

and wiped away given events uh abroad with the the straight and is the the straight open or

closed in your notifications changing our by ours you could see a government effort and yet an

opposition saying right if if we're postponing a carbon tax what does that mean for future packages

you could say shin fein laborer sock dams and others question well where's the help for the 750

households on home eating oil you could see that opposition trying to cut through on the 350,000

people who are dealing with arrears and then all of that then we saw the moments in the

door so there was healthy debate lots of solutions questions happening but on a week where social

media ran rampant and a lot of peruse of language and terminology by some protesters and in the

minority it has to be said you would expect your elected representatives come to come into the door

and not speak in the oil caps not speak in the ways that might not be deemed appropriate online

and now are in the door shouting each other down and you could argue that's always been the way

of the dog chamber but something has changed in the tone and approach it's got a lot worse

yeah well you see that a lot worse and I don't understand to social media because people

you know people now go into the doll into the doll not in the hope of getting the clip on the

news you know on the artee news whatever they now go into the doll and they make their

impassionate statement are there on hinge ranch depending on your view things in the hope of

getting a social media clip that yeah that's so that's that's that's different yeah and sometimes

it does so what's there rewarded is not is not not echo here in statement that gets on the news

what's rewarded is a angry rant which goes viral online and that's you know that is a

diminution of the type of political debate and discourse we have now well we get to

me hallmark and fiend falls position in a moment but just on the behavior in the

oil a number of female tds from a number of parties and it's not just government parties the

social democrats in particular are fed up with what they see as the misogynistic behavior

and that's why they're very much looking at the independent island males as well in relation to

this the guys who were down supporting the people who had the country by the balls are also inside

in the dial talking over various female tds yeah it was a rare moment of consensus i thought

this week where in the moment you had government ministers mail to their credit calling it out

you had hallmark and tea mary bottler on on the government benches aligned with social democrats

on the other side saying we have got to have a way where we can have respectful debate where you

can have your stubborn opinions maybe sometimes they can be loosely held and people can have

the right to change their mind but these moments this week where women it would seem as a pattern

of behavior just being shouted down to the point where the opposition couldn't hear answers to the

questions they had just posed to the ministers and i just i just discussed back to the election of

her own murphy is keon corolla as well when there was as well as an originally behavior there was

also misogynistic behavior i think towards our which i think there was some other mean i can only

imagine how mary new my donald and shin fein would have reacted if she was been treated in the way

that for on a murphy country is about that and unfortunately there there is an unfortunate legacy

again in the minority of women being purely treated in the dual chamber we can remember

instances of miss peggy there was lapgate there was moments where you had a politician talking about

rein her in so this kind of language unfortunately has existed through the decades and what i'm happy

to see at least this week is men rallying and saying and calling it out in the moment because it

has to be done in the moment it there's little point in the days after calling it out as as a

reflection and retrospective to see the social democrats this week lodge a formal complaint

to the keon corolla about the pattern of interruptions as they see it particularly as they see

a coming from members of independent island it is important to say spokesperson for independent

island said the party strongly rejects allegations that its tds engaged in misogynistic behavior in

the dual chamber but i do think again if if the doll is going to be the place where you come to

represent the views of your constituents and you're coming with your approach to solutions

and approaches and some creativity and innovation it can't be a place where it is again now back to

only the loudest his scream are actually going to be the ones then heard yeah look i i think

think the keon corolla needs to do her job and she is herself a woman and has been elective

that role and when you're in the doll chamber you're supposed to address the chamber through the

chair and that has totally fallen apart when i was the first time td it was still the norm to

address the chamber through the chair through the keon corolla now they kind of hurl abuse at each

other and call each other by their first name that was not the case i sound like an old fart now

but that was not the case when i was the first time td 20 years ago it would not have been tolerated

by Sean bearish who we who we buried this week so what's required i think is strong chair

that says you know just like if somebody who's a good chair of a meeting that says

you will address the chamber through the chair you will not use certain language

um you're not going to call each other by your first name that is not how parliamentary debate is

supposed to work yeah there has to be rules of engagement yeah process protocol such as those who

break us and this is a work face yeah like that's not forget this this is a work face and these are

people who are entitled to some form of basic workers right so you would not be able to conduct

yourself like that in most workplaces and aren't you because also if the opposition parties were to

find themselves and power the next time we're on after the next session they wouldn't want

and to find themselves yeah and the other rules that the rule that i think would be useful change

and this is the case in other parliaments uh it is that if you're suspended from the chamber you're

not paid for the period of suspension uh in Ireland if you're suspended from the dollar chamber

uh you get the great publicity of having been suspended and you get paid to do no work for a few

days in other parliaments if you're suspended from the chamber you you're not getting paid okay

is it ever been considered as a penalty to the best you're not

they too i don't know who's gonna know who's gonna vote for it in any other workplace if you

behave like that yeah you would be sanctioned you and you would probably face some form of

you'd be put on a form and some proof in plan and give him tree warnings anger anger

magic lessons all right the final training i have to ask you of what's going on in fina fallen

the three young men James O'Connor Albert Dolan and Ryan O'Mara uh who uh wrote indicating real

and deep concern with the government's response to the fuel protests did you have memories

based on your own behavior within fina gale as a young td yeah i did her last night with this

indecriting and we would have been the young turk and the gale back ventures are t young tds

anyway once upon a time and yeah i was reflecting on the fact that maybe that would have been the

kind of letter that i would have written and you know we'd the five aside in in fina gale before

it's of course i i was not part of um but i couldn't just remember my people this five that the young

tds all feel a few lads yeah who would have been regarded as maybe as a thorn in it i can't

say it but i i did notice one big difference and i read their statements well written you can feel

their frustration that they're not part of the decision making process they feel they're just

out there to explain the decisions that are made by ministers i get the frustration what i

thought was really absent though from their letter and wouldn't have been absent from the kind of

letters that we would have written back then or the five aside might have written was any policy

substance uh like what were they actually calling for were they calling for a mini budget where

five billion euros is spent to please everyone in the audience for a few months you know back to

the fina file the Celtic tiger is that actually their vision for for fina file is to go back to that

or are they just saying that they want more involvement in the decision making process which is

a very different thing what did you make was um i think for mihil martin this is someone who's

obviously a hugely experienced politician um a long time in power if he obviously and i think

only last night back i'd say my position is not under threat in any shape or form i thought

it was interesting i think it was this morning and burlin or last night he's he talked about how the

government would evaluate concerns about the language used last week and how people perceived

the government was approaching things and in a moment like this it doesn't matter if you're in

business charty small large organization when you have people coming to you and saying the approach

has to change you do normally have to look within yourself and go right the leadership style or

the ways of working that got me here are not going to be the things that got me there and i do think

while leo was right about the the statement lacking you know a substantive policy issues

i think they felt compelled to react to that given the protesters had gotten by ten to two i

think it was last fried a ten minutes out from these negotiations starting in agriculture has

they were starting to call for mihil martin's head so this had started to become a theme over the

weekend obviously the three fina followers felt they had to take it head on but as we know there's

been the the litany of issues there going back to the jim gavin presidency and the with the

question of is this getting closer to a breaking point for mihil martin i think if he reflects he's

going to say there's a communication style there's a leadership style that he probably has to

now pull a different lever to meet this moment ultimately though you would think this is not an

endangered leadership you're heading into the european presidency for the next six months

you've got two by elections nobody is going to mount a heave when you've got two very precarious

by elections ahead for fina fall and the government also is it that there is no alternative

obvious alternative within fina fall jim mo calahen has been spoken about but talk about bad

timing going back to where we started and the embarrassment to him in relation to the issue with

the army i think perhaps there's quite a few people in fina fall would think now's not

necessarily the time to be putting jim mo calahen in instead of mihil martin yeah months ago jack

chambers seem to be the the preferred candidate then we had a presidential election that

went a certain way and he was director of elections then jim mo calahen seems to have been the

the popular consensus and and we've seen her last week has played out that lazy with dara brine

uh and dara cleary those seem to be the four names mentioned uh that's our dara brine after

the housing debacle under his watch yeah but is there a perception there of that he has

the legacy is somewhat intact he did his thing and has moved on to a different portfolio and

doesn't seem to have the long tail effect that maybe other ministers have had coming out of health

and housing i don't know i just wonder is there a perception piece that he's been able to kind

of over optimize and overcorrect and kind of quickly move on from it but i think you're right

there is a massive question of timing for them as individuals would also with by elections only

weeks as a european presidency i would think the leadership question is don't you to 2027 i think

that the government it should actually shut up to a large screen about the european presidency

people in this country will not care a damn about the care about it if there's protests and blockades

being mounted again when you have european ministers and representatives in and out the country

that's where everyone's going to be potentially talking about the european presidency not about the

substantive issues or i don't think they want to hear like or we're very proud to be european

president the president very important business to be done very important meetings to be at

i think the general public won't give a damn about that yeah well i was a minister for the last

european presidency and nobody cared about it then so i don't see um i don't see why people

care about it now um and it's great to be the minister chairing the meeting for six months push

when you knock down doors that side of the morning nobody even knew or are cared so um i think

i think you're you're right in that point um there's one that one thing though i i think we

shouldn't forget though about right to teach you about me ill martin um he took over fina fall

when they had twenty something seats their party was in third place and there were serious

questions as to whether fina fall was a long term decline sorry just to correct us slightly he

took over before the election yeah but the election result was was was an apple was an apple at that

point um where he's brought them to is where in an election not that long ago they won the popular

vote and i know the biggest party in the doll and deep down fina fall members know that

and i think if there is any sort of he begins to it would be badly defeated and fina fall members

on the ground would actually turn on those tds okay right okay i think that's coming towards

a conclusion less as anything else that you can actually think of that we need to discuss

some relation to this is all going to be quite fluid isn't we we will wonder about if we see

i was actually in portugal last weekend petrol prices are higher as i was actually filling the

whole story to be written about portugal in spain and and the different people often use spain

as these ample of fuel prices being lower than Ireland right next door is this country called

portugal where they're much higher yeah and um i'm sure the people started giving out all

looking easy for you off for a weekend in portugal but the reiner flight was full going out and

was full coming back as well lots of Irish people are still actually in a position to take the

list actually there is one other thing should the government if it needs to claw back the money

for paying for these new measures should it abandon the vat caught for the hospitality sector in July

which will cost about 500 million a year i don't don't think they can do that now especially given

those businesses are facing the same rising costs of labor it wasn't a good decision but i mean

in one of the things and i've argued this previously on this podcast was last year's budget

you know we come to what was it nine to one ratio between using the surface for increased spending

as to tax measures many of the tax measures were caught up in this vat for the hospitality sector

and maybe one of the reasons why a lot of people are fed up is that they got no indexation

in their income tax last year which meant that theoretically there were there were worse off

unless as they were encouraged to go seek a bigger pay increase from your employer and is that

not something the government is going to have to address in the forthcoming budget i think that's

why the tarnished uh is is right and you know i've heard Simon Harris on number of occasions now

committing to the fact that there would be a decent income tax package uh in in the budget and

we'd see how do you see a certain i-factor may say otherwise but yeah and i think again this is the

long tail blowback we're seeing from a budget last year that was perceived at least to be answering

the demands of the sector such as the restaurants and businesses when it came to vat we've now seen

another sector now remedy true this five five hundred which amounts to 750 million i think the

chorus around public sector pay was ultimately then the everyday worker comes to 750,000 on the home

heating oil those in a rear those who need energy credits and interventions that is where the

chorus will now grow as it happens on the pat pat on the pat to power podcast for subscribers

this weekend friend and ogle will be joining us to talk about protests because he's a veteran

in relation to the right to water campaign the appala house a campaign in relation to homelessness

and even going back to the old days of the Irish locomotive drivers association strikes

you're too young to remember that liarius for the turn of the century never that you've never heard

oh my god friend i was around the tyrannous entry so you don't remember the train strikes

why do you yeah yeah so we've been talking to him i don't think he was in charge of using back

at that point and actually there's also a part to power america so let's just hear a little clip

of marrying mccone talking in the current edition about balania trump but let's unpick this a little bit

so melania um the reason for this now this every thought this was a panic spur the momenting

it wasn't because the day before about 26 hours before i'm still on the the melania

mailing list and so i got melania mailing list for the press the media mailing list so anyway she

um i got an email saying the first lady will be making an announcement tomorrow at whatever time

i think with three p.m. over the other time was in the white house foie um if you'd like to be here

in person please apply for your credential now you know okay so this was planned it wasn't off

the cuspontaneous which then with tali with trump saying i knew she was going to say something i just

didn't know what i was yes although you would have thought his people would be going well

balania please what do you want to say what says about yes and you see the things she couldn't do

it from the east wing because the east wing is now demolished yes so her venue normally east wing is

you know hard hard hard hard hard hard and west wing is trumps but but apparently there's no

communication between their two teams anyway they're they're they're disaster but what happened to us

they don't talk about us when they went to bed at night together and i'm out stop that

you're just being mischievous but anyway so what happened what's behind all of this was um

a 41-year-old Brazilian former Brazilian model called Amanda Ungara now this is a horrible story

okay and nobody reflects well in this and that's where the story will be picked up if you

listen to part-to-par American edition is when mad hasn't been watching what's going on

she effectively brought the Epstein files back front and center yeah but again if these things

move on so quickly because instead it's trump's battle with the pulp which has been dominating the

headlines and it still remains unclear what was she trying to get ahead of was it an interview

in el país that nice seems a little bit more diluted or is there something else still to come

with the the launch publication of a book but yeah the time where Donald Trump seems to be going to

huge lengths to say look over here at Iran and Ukraine and and peace deals that he's trying to

negotiate and instead his very wife brought back to no look back here at the Epstein files and

obviously and obviously in the heart of all of this are victims who are looking for their voices

and justice and speaking their truth but it's yeah and this every day feels chaotic right now

and it's a reminder in a world that feels very chaotic and ever changing and a lot of ambiguity

that we have to kind of come back here in a place like Ireland of strong media strong debate

but let's try and find ways to do it in respectful way the future breaks the country strangely

other this could be the best recruitment drive for the Catholic church in a long time

I know you know I'm a I'm a confirmed Catholic but one that doesn't practice very much and

I like Pope Leo more and more and I like Pope Francis too for lots of reasons

and at a time when religious leaders really aren't standing up for peace and justice look at

patriarchal in in rush for example there are examples of other other religious leaders who

really aren't doing what I feel they shall be doing and we have a Pope who's standing up for

the message of the gospel and yeah you're I think you're right and it seems like such a strange

fight to pick for Trump in the year of midterm elections and the AI doctored images where

he would seem to be portrayed as Jesus Christ and then comes out and says no I thought

it was me being portrayed as a doctor or as we discussed with Marion in our turns out that

apparently he was told to say that there were doctors doctors and he misunderstood the instructions

but why pick this fight with the Pope at a time where you need that conservative

evangelical base where you still have Catholics obviously voting Republican like months out from

critical congress senate elections for Trump it seems like an unnecessary own goal and what is

own constituents it shows a difference though between Catholics even evangelicals that doesn't

you know if you look if you read the words the gospel Jesus says nothing about abortion or gay

marriage he talks about welcoming the stranger he says that rich people he says it's easier for

a camel to get through the Ivan Edeland for a rich person to enter heaven you know the message of

the gospel the words of Jesus which I now study because of my my work in no today in the Catholic

University are so divorced from the ideology of the religious right so divorce if Jesus was around

today he would be considered to be be woke can you imagine how woke he was 2000 years ago so these

people who are on the religious right who are obsessed with you know sex and gender and gender roles

see nothing wrong with bathing migrants are displaying their wealth to to antagonize other people

they're so divorced from the actual words of the gospel and the words of Jesus and yet

isn't there such a weird time to be alive where you have the vice president JD Vance

lecturing the Pope on scripture and what the Bible says and doesn't say and and see in this

back and forth like it is extraordinary and that he's been mansplained to the best bit is Pete

Hegs of the defense secretary quoting scripture and then discovering afterwards that he was actually

quoting script from a pulp fiction that's the best bit of all okay and a line that was news to

you Leo is that true yes it is he texted the other day he went on one of his religious as he thought

and statements and it turns out he was quoting pulp fiction could it could it possibly get more

weird and on that note thank you very much Leo for alcohol and on your care we will be back with more

part to part next week and don't forget the subscription editions but marrying michael on part to

us and also with Brendan Olga which will be available from Sunday

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