Power Play #2173: NDP MP Lori Idlout crosses floor to Liberals

Hi there and welcome to Power Play. I'm Vashika Pelos in Ottawa on this Wednesday.

Tonight, a majority for the Liberals, as close as it gets.

There are a variety of many things that have allowed nature to really reflect on this,

and I'm very thankful to be so warmly involved.

None of our MP Laurie Idloud crosses the floor from the IndieP to the government benches,

putting the Liberals just two seats away from a majority government.

With three bi-elections set for next month, that could provide a pathway to achieve just that.

We have a special show for you tonight to unpack.

The significance of today's move for both the governing and opposition parties,

first with Liberal Caucus Chair, James Maloney.

Then, formal federal IndieP leader Tom Mulcair will join us,

plus Pulster Nick Nanos will have the latest data and the prospects of an election.

Then, the front bench will be here,

Sharon Carr, Sebastian Skampke, and Carl Bell OJ are all standing by plus.

We've convened a special edition of our strategy session, Scott Reed, James Moore,

and Kathleen Monk will all be with me together just a little bit later on in the show, first though.

Well, I'm very honored to welcome Laurie Idloud to our caucus.

It is a great pleasure, one of Canada's greatest constituency MPs.

You represent a writing that is the size of Mexico,

and very diverse, and we've had conversations about what we can do both large and small.

But with any complicated issue, it wasn't just one thing that happened.

There were a variety of many things that have allowed me to really reflect on this,

and I'm very thankful to be so warmly welcome.

Prime Minister Mark Kerney was all smiles this morning,

as he introduced a new member of his caucus, one that is quite literally growing by the month.

None of it's sole MP, new Democrat, Laurie Idloud.

Late last night, crossed the floor to the Liberal.

He met with cheers, chants, and hugs from her new colleagues this morning.

A little bit of floor-crossing deja vu there, reminiscent of when then-conservative MP,

Chris Don Trauma, joined the Liberals in November, and was met with the same applause.

Idloud is now the fourth MP to cross the floor in as many months,

joining Don Trauma as well as former Conservatives Michael Ma and Matt Jenneroo.

Today is also, however, a first, as Idloud is the only NDP MP to have defected to Liberal ranks,

this Parliament shrinking the new Democrat caucus down to just six seats.

NDP interim leader Don Davies scooped the Liberals when he issued a statement late last night,

announcing Idloud's departure, saying he was disappointed by the move.

He then faced reporters this afternoon.

And if a member of Parliament wants to override that decision,

we believe they must go back to the voters and make that case to them and receive a renewed mandate.

I'm becoming increasingly concerned by the way that Mr. Carney is trying to stitch together

a majority government in this country.

Once again to us, whether or not there's a majority government is fundamentally a decision

of the Canadian people at the ballot box.

And it should happen that way, not through backroom deals, cut behind closed doors in Ottawa.

Today's floor crossing now puts the Liberals just two seats shy of a 172-seat party majority threshold.

And with three bi-elections coming up, two of which are in Toronto writings considered to be safe Liberal seats,

the current government could secure that majority next month.

James Maloney is the Liberal's caucus chair.

Hi, Mr. Maloney. Pleasure to welcome you back to our program. Thanks for making the time.

My pleasure, Vashy. Thanks for having me on.

Does it ever weigh on you or your party that this isn't really how Canadians voted for you to get your majority?

Well, look, Canadians voted for us and elected us as the government.

It's the individual parliamentarians how they choose to conduct themselves.

And look, we saw yesterday, Laurie had decided to join our caucus,

which first of all, I'm thrilled that she did so.

Welcome her with Open Arms, as do all of my colleagues.

She has spoken to her constituents. I've spoken with Laurie about it. Her constituents feel very strongly that she was going to do the right thing and now has done the right thing.

So I have absolute confidence in the decision.

Would you feel the same way if Mr. Polly Ev were a few seats short of a majority and secured his majority through arrangements like the one you just described?

Well, if people who have been following parliamentary history as long as you and I have, know what that has happened.

You recall a British Columbia member of parliament who was elected as a liberal and appeared in a cabinet seat with Stephen Harper.

This isn't the first time this has happened. So Stephen Harper has done it. Other governments have done it.

This is an unique situation.

Certainly, I would be asking the same questions of them if they were before me right now.

As far as this particular floor, this particular member of parliament, Laurie, it loud.

Was anything, and I have to ask, expressly, just to get you on the record, expressly promise to her in order to secure this.

No, look, we don't operate that way. Members of parliament, like Laurie and the other three who have chosen to cop across the floor,

did so because they believe our government are going in the right direction. They did so because they believe Mark Carney is doing what needs to be done as prime minister.

You know, these suggestions that there's back room, deals or games. That's all just political nonsense to be honest with you, Vashy.

I mean, this is straightforward as it gets. People like Laurie decided yesterday that this government is heading in the right direction doing the things that need to be done.

Look at her region and knew that. It's an important part of our country. She feels that the best way to represent them, the best way to get things done in that region is by joining the government.

Speak to her about it. She feels very strongly about it.

I would love to. Unfortunately, the prime minister's office said that she would not be granting any interviews today.

Should Canadians read into the fact that, you know, I understand that region is very significant.

I understand the promise that your government has placed in particular on the Arctic, but there have been a number of announcements in the budget and outside the budget, including a university, which just last month the government said would be worth $50 million.

The Arctic Infrastructure Fund worth $1 billion over four years. Many commitments for Indigenous housing there. Should we read anything into that?

No, that's a straightforward as I can be, Vashy. I mean, look, the budget speaks for itself. We're making these types of investments because they're important for the country.

They're important for that region, but they're important for me living in a topical lecture. These are the type of projects the prime minister ran on.

These are the type of projects that the prime minister and the cabinet have been talking about since the day we got elected.

The two are not connected. Other than perhaps, Mizzid Loat saw what we were doing and said, this is a government that's doing what needs to be done.

This is a government that's doing the right thing, and this is a government I want to be part of.

So I think it's the other way around. I mean, I understand people try to read sort of sinister plots into all these things, but it's just simply not the case.

I understand your contention. The reason I ask is because just two months ago in January, she gave an interview to CBC at the time about the prospect of crossing the floor and said that she could not do a good job representing her writing, quote unquote, if I were forced to vote in favor of violating Indigenous people's rights.

And she was referencing C5, a marquee piece of legislation for your government. Do you expect her to fall in line on C5 now?

Look, we have a big caucus. We have an open caucus. We have healthy and extensive discussions on every issue. I expect her to be a big part of that now.

I'm not going to put words of her mouth or thoughts in her head, but she obviously made the decision. She thought about this because as you quite rightly point out, this didn't arise yesterday for the first time.

So there's thoughtful consideration obviously on her part. So she's addressed these issues in her own mind, and I believe she made the decision knowing full well that she supports the government. She said so in the House of Commons today.

I understand that in the aggregate, but the reason I ask about this issue in particular is because I listen to the debate, for example, in the House of Commons today, which was largely the conservatives pressing your government on how sincere you are in your promise to make Canada, for example, an energy superpower. C5 is central.

C5 is central to that promise. A week ago, she was a number of days ago. In fact, she was endorsing Avi Lewis. Larry Idlow was endorsing Avi Lewis for a leader of the NDP, a man whose entire campaign is essentially premised on keeping oil and gas in the ground.

Do you understand how some Canadians might say, hey, like this person is the total opposite of what the Prime Minister is telling us he's going to do. Maybe he's not as sincere as the government insists that they are.

Well, again, I'm not going to put words in her mouth, but I've spoken with her briefly today. Some of my colleagues have spoken with her more extensively, and certainly the Prime Minister have.

So I have absolute confidence that she's thought these issues through, and she's comfortable with her decision, and she'll be comfortable with supporting what we're doing going forward.

So the past has passed when people are in opposition parties. I mean, you know how the House of Commons work and how things work. Some of this stuff is pretty scripted.

It's the conversations that we have out in the corridors that usually reveal more accurate information than stuff you see in the House of Commons, particularly during question period.

And just really quickly, Mr. Maloney, you mentioned that this wasn't sort of sinister in any way, no back-and-deal. Did Miss Idlow approach your party or is the reverse true?

Actually, I don't know that. I probably saw it on your show, and I read about it on your network, and others, to be honest with you. So I wasn't part of any of the negotiations or discussions. I don't even want to characterize it incorrectly, but as I said, these decisions don't happen.

Over lunch time, she's obviously thought about this for months, weeks. I'm sure she's talked to her family about it. It's not an easy thing to do. Making a decision like that is pretty significant.

And that's why people need to realize that when you make this decision, you're doing it because you've thought it through. It isn't a whimsical thing to do to become part of a government.

You're doing this to represent your community, and I'm sure she's done it very thoroughly, and she's made an accurate assessment, in my opinion.

You said you weren't part of these discussions. Are you part of any other discussions about prospective people crossing the floor? On a bit of a hunting mission here tonight.

I'm giving you an A for effort on that one. Let me put it to you this way. I have a lot of friends on the other side of the House of Commons, and I respect every one of them.

Conversations I have with them are confidential, but conversations with them, I am not out there openly soliciting anybody.

I respect people who get elected. I respect people where they sit, and I respect them as individuals. If people want to speak to me about this issue or any other, I'm more than happy to do so.

The answer to your question is no. I keep hearing stories from watching the news that there's all of these other people out there in the air.

But as I've said time and time again, if it wasn't for rumors and gossip, there'd be about 80% left to talk about around this place.

Ain't that the truth? Mr. Maloney, thanks very much. I appreciate your time.

My pleasure. Good to see you.

James Maloney is the Liberals caucus chair. Today's floor crossing is yet another blow to the Democrats who lost official party status following April's significant election loss, which saw the party lose 17 out of their 24 seats.

I could soon be out another MP. Their sole Quebec representative, Alexandra Bouliris, is seriously considering a move to provincial politics, former federal NDP leader.

And CTV's political analyst, Tom Mulcare, is with us now to talk a bit more about the challenge that party faces. Hi, Tom. Good to see you as always. Thanks for making the time.

Good to be with you, Vassy.

I have to start off if, you know, if you were to describe the challenge that the NDP faces at this moment in time, particularly relative to other moments under your leadership or Jack Layton's like, how would you characterize it?

It's extraordinarily difficult because the loss of laureate loud is a huge loss. You will recall because she was one of three self-described racialized women who were quite cross with the party when they weren't consulted fully on the leadership rules.

And I think that that was the beginning of the end for laureate louds being a diet in the wool NDPer. She was looking to help the people from a region about the most.

Today's move didn't surprise me or anybody else. You're quite right to say that Alexandra Bouliris has clearly signaled that he is leaving the NDP caucus.

The party that he's going to is a separatist party. It's called Quebec Study Day of very left wing, very much in terms of its ideology like the NDP, but a sovereignist party.

He had them change the rules. They had a heart and fast rule that if a writing came open until they had equality for underfavorized groups like women and, you know, gender minorities and so forth, unless that was accomplished, then you automatically put in a woman or for one of those equity seeking groups.

He had them, the rule was changed to be able to greet a very senior progressive with a lot of experience. They did it to greet him and to bring him into the whole.

So he's being a bit coy, but I think it's not very credible for him to say that he hasn't made up his mind. It's very clear that he's leaving. That drops them down to five. So that's the nether regions.

When I was in with Jack, I got elected in 07, we had the 08 election. We were always in the 15 to 20 range, you know, with the number of seats. We had clawed our way back from having lost party status, but this is a place that the parties never get.

And so is all of this going to affect it for the future. Aviv Lewis is, I believe, heading towards a relatively easy victory from everything I've been able to get from the inside in terms of fundraising and memberships and so forth.

I don't think it should be a very tough fight for him, but he has very different views from what you would consider the average voters concerns.

He's very much talking about stuff. As you correctly said in your discussion with Mr. Maloney, he wants to leave the oil and gas in the ground, which is a great discussion to have.

He's been saying that for 10 years, at least he's consistent, but I don't think it's going to help him get any seats in Alberta or anywhere else out west.

So I think that it's a question of the pragmatism of the Jack Layton era that gave us the orange wave that I worked so hard to accomplish.

And it's the more theoretical university type talking to a very niche group in the large cities.

That's the NDP of Aviv Lewis, and I'm not sure it's one that's going to break through with voters, even though the carny liberals are queuing more and more to the center right.

I still don't think that the NDP is going to be able to pick up from that, even though it's an opportunity for them.

Well, it's interesting because the liberals don't seem to have any problem picking up NDP candidates.

Exactly.

In the war on that, for example, Scarborough or in Lori Idloud or in someone like Daniel Martin in Toronto as well, who you might anticipate would be running under the NDP banner.

Exactly. No, she said that.

I'll leave you with just one last question on that.

Do you think we're in for this kind of effectively two party system for a while, given all that?

I think we're seeing that type of system installing itself since last year's election.

It's get out of the way everybody else.

There's no room for you on this road.

This is, you know, one against the other.

We're seeing that in Quebec politics right now.

We've got four opposition parties that basically have 15% each.

And the ruling CAC, it's going to be in a heck of a fight in the next election.

And everything is going to coalesce around either the remnants of the CAC to try to beat the separatist Potskivikwa or a resurgent liberal party.

They're not both going to be there at the finish line.

Voters are starting to vote more and more strategically.

And that I think is what hurt the NDP the last time.

And I think it'll hurt them again, unless they start being able to appeal to a wider section of the voting public.

I'll leave it there. Always appreciate your analysis. Thanks so much, Tom.

All the best, Vashy.

Thanks a lot, former leader of the federal NDP.

And of course, CTV news, political analyst Tom Mocare, our front bench is set to join us in just a little bit to talk about this latest floor crossing.

And what it means for both the liberals in the NDP, Sharon Karas, Sebastian Skamsky, and Carl Belonze will be here.

Plus, a special edition of our strategy session is standing by to provide their analysis.

Scott Reed, James Moore, and Kathleen Monk are coming on up a little bit later on in the program.

We've talked about the liberals and the NDP now, but there's also news from the conservatives tonight.

The party's leader, Pierre Paulier, is traveling to the United States tomorrow.

It's his first official trip there as opposition leader.

He outlined some details of that trip, have a listen.

This week, I'll be heading to the United States to stand up for Canada and Canadian workers.

First stop, Michigan, where I'll meet with auto leaders and state legislators to defend an integrated North American auto industry

and fight for tariff free trade that protects Canadian jobs.

Canada can't control every decision made in Washington.

And I'll leave the negotiating up to our government.

But we can leverage the goodwill and shared interests with the American people.

We'll talk about that with the front bench as well.

We want to turn now, though, to some news on the conflict in the Middle East,

which has essentially closed the strait of hormones to oil tanker traffic

with a huge impact on prices, because about a fifth of the world's supply grows through that waterway.

U.S. President Donald Trump surprised reporters today

by insisting oil companies should still use the strait.

Are you talking to CEOs of various oil companies encouraging them to use the straight-up or straight-up?

I think they should.

These new comments from Trump come after three vessels were hit by projectiles near the strait,

according to Maritime Authorities.

Now, here's that volatility I mentioned in the price of oil.

Brent Crude, the international benchmark, climbed to about $92 a barrel two days ago.

It hit $119 a barrel.

West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, was sitting at about roughly $87 a barrel at the end of markets today.

To try and mitigate that volatility, the International Energy Agency's 32 member countries

have unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil reserves into the global market.

It's the largest ever move in its history.

Canada is a member country of the IEA, but we have no reserves.

Here's how that played out in the House of Commons.

As I said in my book, as it is the policy of this government, we want the lowest risk, the lowest carbon,

the lowest cost, the lowest cost, oil and gas, and that would make ours competitive.

Today, we have the hilarious spectacle of the liberal natural resources minister saying,

Canada will do what it can to help with its stockpiles for the current energy shortage.

Our stockpiles are zero.

Our oil exports have never been higher under this government.

Over 5 million barrels per day and they will increase.

We have a strategic maple surf stockpile, Mr. Speaker, which the Prime Minister could use to put maple surf on the pancakes that he flipped locks.

Coming up, we'll go back to our top story.

That floor crossing, I'm going to go one-on-one with Pulster Nick Thanos to break down the political landscape as it stands now.

And preview those three upcoming buy elections we're back with Nick in just two minutes.

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Welcome back to Power Play and our coverage of our top story today, NDP former,

known as NDP MP Lori, it allowed crossing the floor over to the liberals.

What it means for both the government, new Democrats and other political parties, as well as their electoral prospects.

Here with me to unpack all of that is Nino's research founder and chief data scientist, Nick Thanos.

No one better to describe what those electoral prospects are.

Let's start with where this leaves us, because I think the changes to the House of Commons are the most material and the most significant.

Let's pull up where this leaves the seats and your thoughts on that.

Yeah, absolutely. You know, the thing is for the liberals who are just short of majority.

They are now creeping closely towards that number.

They only need 172. They're at 170. They have the three vacancies.

So every MP that decides to cross to the liberals from a marketing perspective is a step towards having a majority in the House of Commons.

And today feels like the most guaranteed of those steps only because it leads us to about a month from now when there's going to be three by elections.

Let's show everybody where those three by elections are occurring and why it seems almost close to certain that at least two of them in this context will go the liberals way.

Absolutely. You know, the thing is is that two Ontario writings are pretty good for the liberals.

The terribon is the Quebec writing, the one in the island of Montreal.

And that was the one that was the, we're going to call it the one vote wonder when it comes to that.

So, you know, for the liberals, I think they're probably hoping to sweep all three and get to that majority number that they're hoping for.

Let's go through each of them because University Rosedale, that's the seat vacated by former deputy prime minister and cabinet minister Chris Jaffrelin.

Sizeable win for her in your view is this seat safe.

It should be safe, but I would not be surprised if the liberals don't have a big win in this writing compared to the past.

Because you cannot underestimate the impact that Christian Friedland had in her own writing and the personal following that they had.

That shed you can see she's still got like at least 25,000 votes.

So, it's a pretty good cushion for the liberals should be a win.

And the by-lection candidate there is going to be Daniel Martin very well known for her kind of public defense of health care and public health care.

And liberals view her as kind of like a name candidate for that.

Yeah, a star candidate on a big issue like health care.

And Nick Scarborough kind of tells a similar story.

We've got Bill Blair, who left to become Canada's high commissioner to the UK.

Pretty big win there is this one safe for the liberals.

It should be safe. You can see Bill Blair won by a margin of two to one over the conservatives.

You know, Vashy, we also have to remember that in Ontario the liberals are ahead.

So, it's not like they're trailing the conservatives.

I think this should be a hold.

And here they stole the deputy leader of the provincial NDP to run for them, which is also kind of fascinating.

Well, it's good optics for the liberals because it shows that people from other parties, not just conservatives,

but new Democrats are going under the Mark Carney banner.

Yeah, we'll see if it materializes in this one.

And then finally, Terabont, much more competitive as you insinuated one vote split the two lead parties.

And then that was nullified by the Supreme Court.

Yeah, absolutely.

You know, the thing is, Vashy, I think this is going to be the writing to watch.

I don't think it's a give me for either the block or the liberals.

They're both competitive in the province of Ontario.

Every seat counts in this House of Commons where things are so tight.

And it's going to be interesting to see how the ground game is for both the liberals and the block, Terabont.

So the big speculation in Ottawa right now is, does this construct that likely gets Mark Carney to a majority government

stave off the possibility of an election?

Let's take a look at your top line numbers.

Where are the liberals and the conservatives in the new Democrats and blocks sit at this point in time?

That if I, that just keeps getting watched, right?

Absolutely. You know, the thing is, a month ago, Vashy, it was within the statistical margin of error for the survey.

Now, you can see the liberals are 13, a whopping 13 points ahead of the conservatives.

NDP back at 10, block at 5.

It shows right now that trajectory is favoring Mark Carney and the liberals and they're opening up a significant lead.

And so what do you think that does to the calculation for an election?

Because you're our one stalwart who keeps saying they're going to go.

It's, you know, even though it seems like they may not, it's hard to resist something like that.

Well, what this does show is that the environment for the by-elections are very favorable to the liberals, which speaks to the advantage that they have.

You know, the big question is, is how long will this advantage last?

And will Mark Carney want to, I don't want to say roll the dice, but take a chance of potential federal election?

He will be negotiating with Donald Trump.

Does he want to negotiate with Donald Trump with a one-seat majority in the House of Commons or potentially with a mandate that could be stronger?

But that said, Vashy, you call an election, all bets are off.

It doesn't mean just because the liberals are ahead today that they'll win a majority.

You remind me of the last election, like the general election that occurred now close to a year ago.

If I recall, they had a pretty wide lead to start that campaign.

And by the very last day, it had almost completely narrowed.

You know, the thing is that spoke to Pierre Paulier and the conservative campaign focusing on cost of living issues and being able to connect with Canadians and to close that gap.

So we should not underestimate Pierre Paulier and the conservatives in a campaign setting.

Let's switch to personal numbers right now because that gap has been wide for a long time and continues to be wide.

How much of this impacts your analysis about an election?

Well, you know, many Canadians vote based on leader.

And you know, what this says is that, you know, if the conservatives are in the mid-30s and their leaders in the low-20s, that Pierre Paulier doesn't have a lot of coattails for the conservative vote, one-third of it is basically for the party, not for the leader.

But check out the number for Mark Carney, he's at 57%.

He's much more popular than his party.

He's drawing support or drawing attraction or focus from people across the political spectrum.

And that leads me to a question that actually perfectly intersects with the floor crossings today, right?

You've got some brand new data that you did for our program specifically about how Canadians are feeling about these floor crossings, and what did you find?

You know, the thing is in the survey that we just did with CTV News for PowerPlay was completed this weekend.

What we see is that Canadians are evenly split almost like a third, a third, a third Vashi between those that believe that if someone decides to cross parties or wants to cross parties, there should be a by-election.

Those that think that they shouldn't sit as an independent and those that are okay.

So a mixed bag right across the board on what it means and how Canadians feel about members of parliament crossing the floor or changing parties.

And ultimately, is it a feeling directed at the MP crossing the floor, or is it directed at the party receiving these MPs?

I think it's more likely to be at the MP.

And you know, the fact of the matter is, is that would you blame Pierre Pauliev if MPs decided to cross the conservatives? No, he'd take it.

You'd be focused on the local MP that decided to make that decision.

Okay, Nick, I'm going to leave it there. I appreciate the analysis, as always, Chief Data Scientist and Founder of NANOS Research.

Nick NANOS, we've got a lot more coverage of this story coming on with both our front bench after a short break and then a little bit later on in the show, a special edition of a strategy session.

We're back in a moment with more PowerPlay. Just have.

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One of Canada's greatest constituency MPs.

The decision of voters at the ballot box is a sacred trust.

And if a member of parliament wants to override that decision, we believe they must go back to the voters and make that case to them and receive a renewed mandate.

We're very proud of the candidates that will be fielding in the election and we look forward to them connecting with as many voters as they can to send that conservative message to get out to as many people as possible.

Welcome back to power play.

Andy PNP, Lori Idloud has crossed the floor to the Liberals, bringing that party now two seats closer to a majority ahead of three by elections next month.

Of note, Prime Minister Mark Carney has poached the most opposition MPs to a governing party caucus since the 36th Canadian parliament from 1997 to 2000 when Prime Minister Jean Critchand poached four progressive conservative MPs in one new Democrat.

Let's bring in our front bench to talk about what it all means.

Sharon Carr is the CTV news political analyst and former deputy chief of staff to former Finance Minister Bill and War No.

Next to her, that's Sebastian Skamsky.

He was a former director of media relations to conservative leader Pierre Paulieff.

And rounding us out tonight, former Interim Indie PNational director Carl Beloshe is here.

He's now the president of Trackstone Strategies.

Hi everybody.

Good to see you, Carl.

I'll start tonight with you on this one.

How big of a blow is this to two new Democrats?

Well, it's not fun for sure for them.

But does it make a difference to go down from seven to six?

The greatest picture that's not really important.

But it's going to be a challenge for the next leader because you're bleeding.

And this adds to the deputy leader of the Ontario Indie PN, that you mentioned, joined the race to replace Bill Blair.

It shows that Mark Carnick and that track and can still attract.

And the polling numbers are clear, progressive voters.

So for the NEP to rebound from this, we'll need the new leader in place and the strategy to make sure that the people you get inside your team

want to stay on your team for the long run despite the challenges.

And that's always a problem when you are obviously without party status.

The Prime Minister, Sebastian, has been accused of stealing conservative ideas and is now stealing NDP MPs.

Quote not stealing, but you know what I mean?

What does that say to you about his political acumen right now?

Well, it says to me he is a perfect liberal without principles and somebody who doesn't care where they get their power from.

We know that about the Liberal Party of Canada.

They did an entire 180 on numerous policies when they changed from Prime Minister Trudeau to Prime Minister Carnick.

That's not awfully surprising.

What is concerning to me is that we have a allegedly a third party in this country that has been kind of dead on the mat.

And perhaps it has a giant sticker on its forehead saying DNR.

There is no way to resuscitate the third party that's supposed to be representing the kind of left social democratic principles in this country.

And from a purely electoral perspective for conservatives, I'm running around with a defibrillator just trying and hoping to find something to resuscitate.

It is shocking to me that there is not a surge in interest in a leadership race of a party that is supposed to be championing those left ideas.

That Mr. Carnick has apparently so widely abandoned.

So I hope Carl, I hope his colleagues in the NDP get a shake out of this and this is a wake up call for them to kind of get things going.

But it is interesting that the Prime Minister has convinced enough people on the progressive side of the spectrum that he has not abandoned Sharon.

Certain ideals that just seem very different than from what Prime Minister Trudeau, for example, often campaigned on or governed around.

It does feel like he is at least saying things differently, but he is now able to still capture progressive voters and progressive members of parliament.

What does that say to you?

So what it says to me is that I think that a lot of the outrage that is out there, particularly coming from opposition members around the fact that he has now been able to not only pull from the right, but also from the left, to me that it's a signal of a good leader.

Because a good leader is someone who can bring people together.

And for folks who think that Prime Minister Carnick only governs in one direction, I think this is a wake up call for them.

Parties evolve, parties adapt. I would like to remind the conservative viewers and opposition members that the conservative party itself is also adapted.

Let's not forget it was the same party that voted, I think 49.7% of its voters or its base voted for someone like Maxim Bernier.

So party parties can adapt and they can change.

And in this case, I think this shows everyone that the Prime Minister is putting priority around building a coalition of people.

And you know, this latest get of this new member of their caucus, it's also showing you how important and I think to her, it'll show her how important the Arctic is.

And I know people are unofficially calling her like the Minister of the Arctic, but it also shows what his priorities are.

Let's not forget, the Prime Minister himself is from the territories.

So I think this is a really good indication that he is not only somebody who believes in fiscal books, he believes in build bridging, but he also believes in coalitions.

I think there's already a Minister of the Arctic, I'll just point out her overseas that file.

So we don't want to get her out of a job point yet, but I came to a point.

Carl, does this make a majority A inevitable and an election not having an election also inevitable?

Yeah, I think that's correct. I think Laurie, I made that quite clear by that move.

Like the liberals, even if they lose one of the three by election, would have a majority, which means the election this spring, which means the election when the next budget comes around.

Which means that in the case of the Nunavut MP, she will be eligible for pension guaranteed.

So I'm not, I'm sure it didn't come into our calculus.

I'm sure it was all principles, including the principles like the one she stated a few months ago when she said that she was disgusted by the county's government response to Nunavut.

What change since then? Well, I don't know. She did not vote for the budget.

I can tell you that. Why? Because the liberals abandoned the food vouchers for the omelet up north.

So what change? I don't know. She says she felt she was between our constituents. Some concerns might feel betrayed today.

That's up to her to explain herself.

Yeah, and she also said that Bill C5 was two months ago in that same interview, I believe, violating indigenous rights.

So that'll be interesting to see the way in which that all plays out.

Sebastian, are parties though, like the conservatives in the NDP breathing a sigh of relief at the prospect of an election not being any time soon?

Well, maybe just before I get to that, I'd like to thank Carl for raising the issue of pensions, of course.

We know if not to live in the past, but had Jagmeet Singh and the NDP of the time before put the country ahead of their own pensions.

The likely would have been an official opposition. This wouldn't have been a discussion whatsoever.

I think in terms of an election topic or election prospects going forward, I certainly think the prime minister's office and the liberals are now have a different set of numbers to manage their calculus on that with.

I think it's probably less attractive to them now to have an election and to risk it all.

Seeing as obviously polls can change rapidly as Mr. Paul Yef has ran a strong campaign last time and has battled tested against Mr. Cardin.

And so I think that risk versus reward is something they're going to be keeping in mind.

Last word to you on that, Sharon, because Nick Nanos was here earlier. He told me the way his numbers are right now.

The seat projections for the liberals are in the 200 seat neighborhood. Are they really going to be like, eh, let's just go with 172?

You know, if I had a crystal ball and knew it was happening in some of the heads out not away, probably would have a more informed opinion on this.

But I think listen, everyone gets excited when they see the numbers like 200.

I think the supermajority is always great. But at the same time, we are in a very tumultuous period.

We have the Christmas negotiations coming up. We have the Middle East on fire right now.

We've got all these things that the government is trying to do. Would they be happy with having a comfortable, safe majority so that they can govern?

If I was advising it, I would maybe put governing before thinking about an even bigger electoral gain.

But at the end of the day, it's always there, right? It's always part of the calculus of what they do.

But right now, I just think that the only person who's really cheering this on beyond the fact that the liberals are pretty happy right now that they've brought someone else into their team is,

probably, eh, because he doesn't have to worry about his leadership at the moment, because there he is.

Okay, I got to take a quick commercial break. I got to leave it there. Thanks, everybody. I appreciate the discussion.

We're all bellow, Shay, Sebastian Skamsky and Sharon Carr are front bench. We'll take that quick break after the break.

A special edition of the strategy session will be here. Scott Reed, James Moore and Kathleen Monk are up next back in a moment.

Right now, Canada needs the NDP more than any other time in our history. I can tell you that. Canadians are about to learn that.

A lot of people are responding to what the Prime Minister is putting forward as a strategy for our country.

They voted for her as an NDP representative. That's who they expected to send Ottawa, so to see her across the four is unfortunate.

I would focus less on why the reasons, but other than the people that she represents.

We're very proud of the candidates that will be fielding in the election, and we look forward to them connecting with as many voters as they can.

I'm not surprised to see colleagues which are doing so searching and say, I want to be at the decision table.

Political reaction from Parliament Hill today to news of Prime Minister Mark Carney's liberals gaining one more caucus member.

NDP MP Lori Idloud is the fourth MP to join the liberals in as many months. It sets up Prime Minister Mark Carney to secure a majority government in if even two of the three by elections next month go his way.

Let's bring in a special edition of our strategy session to talk about just that.

CTV political commentator Scott Reed is here. He's a former communications director to Prime Minister Paul Martin.

CTV political analyst and former conservative industry minister James Morris with us. He's now a policy advisor at Edelman.

And Kathleen Monk is former director of communications to the late Jack Layton. She's now the principal owner of Monk and associate type everybody. Good to see you. Scott is a majority inevitable.

I don't know if it's inevitable. It certainly looks likely at this point because I do think based on the polling that all three of those by elections even terrible looks like it's like be to break the liberals way.

There does not appear to be on impulse among Canadians to resist the idea of a majority government. Maybe quite the opposite which breaks some interesting campaigning dynamics by the way in those by elections because not sure that the best appeal for the opposition say deny him a majority.

Maybe what Canadians want in a circumstances to multi us as this for the United States. And when we look at the fact that Mr. Carney has been able to attract three conservators one new Democrat.

It's quite an unprecedented circumstance literally. I mean, I remember a year ago this guy came in to politics without having ever run for office became Prime Minister defeated Pierre Paulie of the conservators at a 26 point margin.

Paulie have lost his writing. Carney has only grown in popularity since that election. And now it looks like he's a bit the standard majority is quite quite an astonishing political accomplishment from a guy who we thought we were picking because he wasn't all that political.

Good point three conservatives James one new Democrat. Is this about the moment or in or is it about the Prime Minister.

And question I would say is probably more about the Prime Minister but but I I would caution liberals don't don't strut too much about this.

Voters general the general public is not really that impressed by politicians who less than a year ago say that Mark Carney shouldn't be Prime Minister the jugmate saying should be Prime Minister that Mark Carney shouldn't be Prime Minister Pierre Paulie ever really needs to be Prime Minister.

And then less than a year later they go to the conservative Christmas party one day and the next day they go to the liberal Christmas party and then cross the floor.

And then last week Mrs. I'd love she says that Mr. Lewis Abby Lewis should be the Prime Minister of Canada and for five days later she says Mark Carney should be Prime Minister and she crosses the floor and joins a liberal party voters are not impressed by this it leaves a residue of distrust of cynicism around politics.

I get the numbers and I get why get such emphasis and focus you know such a narrow margin in the parliament of Canada.

There's a big difference in terms of how a government looks at the calendar and their legislative agenda and their approach to things when they have a certainty of a majority versus a minority.

I get why this matters but don't strut don't brag I was surprised that the Prime Minister walk into parliament with her by his side.

I think you should undersell this don't oversell it people are not impressed by this it matters to your government matters that you have more certainty but it also matters that the voters are not impressed.

Let's talk a little bit about in this particular instance Lori Idlout crossing the floor Kathleen because you know the IDP already has had a tough year.

This is one seat less and then they're going to have you know likely another seat loss with Alexander Bouliris moving over to the provincial side of politics.

She was just like a few days ago literally saying I endorse Avilouis for leader of the NDP why was the party unable to keep her among its ranks do you think.

It's really interesting because you know what the question that comes to mind is why now because frankly.

Lori crossing the floor has been a rumour throughout Ottawa for months now recall she abstained from the budget vote to allow the Liberals budget vote to pass.

There was the article that happened in January.

Some moves by new Democrats to actually go up to the north go to none of it for their caucus retreat and late January they ended up spending a week there because the weather was so bad.

There was a lot of the court and going on but my question is why did the Liberals move on this now and if you want to answer that question probably because Mr. Carnie didn't have a great week last week you know with a ran and and the mixed messaging that was coming across but.

Listen Mr. Carnie is doing what Mr. Carnie does best which is essentially consolidating power he did it for a long time in boardrooms and in banks and now he seems to be consolidating power in parliament right by grabbing MPs from wherever they can.

Be shaken loose from whether it's conservatives new Democrats maybe we'll see some block members to come through to in the in the future who knows but.

I think looking at this I think you know I am going to do the the Pearl clutching statement that I do think that voters deserve to understand what change the mandate for Miss Idlow.

I mean if it's about speaking up for people of the north.

You know I wonder about that because there is currently a state of emergency happening right now in another northern reserve in Kishachawan where there's been challenges with water where people have had to be evacuated where that the chiefs and leaders in that community have in fact called on this government to say to further minister of indigenous services to resign you know so.

This isn't a government currently serving northern communities I'm not sure what Miss Idlow is is getting by joining the caucus right now they're not going to put her in cabinet and and so what is she actually securing for the north but that's my more partisan take if you take my more strategic take and what's going to happen next is new Democrats have to double down on rebuilding the party they have to double down on making sure that new Democrats voices need to be heard now especially with issues like the war in Iran.

And conflicts breaking out throughout the world this is the moment where this government needs to be challenged not only on major projects on how the future of our country where it's going to go but on some of the ideals and the more corporate moves that Mr. Karnie's mean bankers don't build movements to be clear they don't aren't known for helping people either right and so if we want social Democrats in this country to be voicing these concerns you're going to need a strong new Democrat party to do that.

Except for I take the point on all of that Scott except for now you've got the deputy leader of the Ontario Indie P running in one of the by elections you've got Daniel Martin a very progressive voice on the issue of health care running in the other by election I understand the point that Kathleen's making but there are new Democrats who are persuaded otherwise.

I'm on question and not just new Democrats but lots of conservatives as well and I think you know I take James's caution very seriously I do think it's a smart caution to say liberal shouldn't be strutting they should be wanting around kissing those biceps and saying get a load of how strong we are but there is something really interesting about the fact that Mark Karnie entered politics a year ago and the breath of his appeal is such that he can draw from both new Democrats.

And conservatives and draw them into his caucus and I mean obviously a large portion of it has to deal with this unique external threat that we feel as a country because of the belligerence and hostility of Donald Trump but part of it also is the fact that a very large cross section of Canadians feel that Mark Karnie is the right guy confront that hostility and that belligerence and not just you know I hear conservative friends always say well you know I like Mark Karnie because he's a he's a progressive conservative president.

I'm minister you know I don't think that's what we heard yesterday so it's it's it's an interesting political phenomenon that we're in that a guy who has so little partisan history is appealing to such a wide cross section of Canadians and now the question is what's going to do with that if he has a majority how might that affect the agenda how might that alter the way he plays his card when it comes to Canada US and beyond.

James the last word to you on I am yes yes the one thing I would say to Scott is is all that maybe true but there's a flip side to that coin there is a there is a point at which Donald Trump is no longer the dominant focus it may not be until three years from now when he's no longer president but that that that this moment will pass.

And when you have a political party the current governing party that is focused on their sole mission is the counterbalance to Donald Trump then you could have a broad coalition of people who might not disagree might not agree on much beyond that.

And that may fortify the government in the near term however go back 20 years and you'll you'll know this very well Scott because you were there on the front lines at peak Paul Martin at peak Paul Martin his cabinet his his caucus included former reform MP Keith Martin former progressive conservative Scott rice and former NDP premier Ujalo Sange former business leader David Emerson those are four corners of the universe that don't agree on very much they agreed

at the moment that Paul Martin was at the peak of his powers and they wanted to be in government but once put once the shine came off it fell apart and they all went in their separate ways.

So if you have everybody united around Mark Carney because they like him as a person and they really dislike Donald Trump as a person eventually those things are going to shift as the dominant focus.

And then John John Quincy and one of my favorite quotes in politics for you said being all things to all people means being nothing to no one and it looks good today but I just I I would caution the government that if you have too diversified of a group it's going to be hard to hold them together when times get tough.

I like broad coalition show I got I got to go I'm so sorry I apologize we're live and the show's about to end thank you guys I appreciate it very much as always Scott read James Moore and Kathleen Monk a special edition of our strategy session we're back next in just a moment with our.

Our coverage continues tonight of this floor crossing in reaction to it right here on CTV news channel your top headlines are up next.

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