Predictions Victory Lap: How We Called 2025's Commerce Upheaval

In their ninth year of annual predictions, Philip and Brian revisit bold calls made in late 2024 that proved remarkably prescient. From mega-brand consolidation and Costco's international dominance to Google's stunning comeback and the rise of Anthropic, they dissect what they got right (most of it), what they got wrong (GameStop stands stubborn), and why being months ahead of conversations about tariffs, de minimis rules, and AI supremacy matters. 

It is no surprise that culture drove commerce’s biggest shifts.

Costco Reigns Supreme, Again

2025 Outcomes & Highlights:

• Mega-brand M&A dominated 2025 as regulatory shifts enabled massive retail restructuring (+10 pts to Phillip!)
• Costco expanded internationally while battling Trump administration on tariffs and DEI (+10 pts to Brian!)
• China-direct retail faced existential crisis as de minimis loophole closed (+10 pts to Brian!)
• Creator-led brand exits to holdcos marked parasocial commerce era (+10 pts to Phillip!)
• Gamestop survived (-10 pts to Phillip!)
• Google executed the comeback of the decade with Gemini's ascent (+10 pts to Brian!)

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