Premier League GW3 Betting Picks: Best Bets, Odds & Predictions

0:00Welcome in to the road of wire. A soccer show we're talking at Game Week 3 in the premier league. We got Bats for Friday Saturday and Sunday's matches on Madam's Drive. Join by Chris Owen Chris welcome to September. Thank you Adam. We're through two game weeks and the window has finally finally shut which feels like it's a little bit easier to predict what might happen now. We had this deadline day feels like a little bit more crazy than others and maybe this transfer window at at at large feels a little bit different than others as well. We saw some pretty big buys and some things maybe not happen that we expected to happen but I think that probably the biggest one was Barcolla to Liverpool. They kind of splashed some cash again for him but yeah excited to

1:01finally I feel like we're settled you know as soon as I'm settled we probably we're probably two weeks away from an international break too so I am you know this is this week is massive we got a little Friday match and then a huge Saturday slate followed by probably two of the two marquee games of the weekend being on Sunday so it feels like our like I'm just a mainlining some content air some games and all the good stuff this weekend for what feels like kind of the first time. Yeah primarily you know they didn't plan around having Labor Day open to them but no Monday games no Monday night football this week because Champions League starts up next week so that's why the schedule is a little different than it has been but road of wire.com slash soccer scrolling through the dub charts if you're watching on YouTube we have all the dub charts from all the transfers that have happened you can check those out road of wire.com slash soccer you're going to be a subscriber, RW soccer 35% off. Let me go to the betting page here road of wire.com slash betting slash soccer and we can check out some of the odds for games to talk about actually but first

2:03Chris because it is September here and I was at the story yesterday. Oh what's he got going. Yes I'm drinking a non-alcoholic beverage here but it's pumpkin and spice for athletic brewing company we got dark and gordy. I saw I never had this before first taste let's see how it goes. I'm nervous for you. It's okay it's pretty it's pretty thin. Yeah okay they call it dark and gordy but it's actually not a dark beer. It's like an orange beer which I guess okay pumpkin but a lot of these like you get like a it's usually like a stout or something like that. I thought it was going to be a dark beer but it's not it's it's pretty light so you know out of 10 I'm going to give this like a 5.4 right now. I'll say that first after my first step yeah yeah sorry no free ads but Friday it's switch home against Liverpool Liverpool or minus

3:09185 odds can you believe that Liverpool or minus 185 minus 189 to win this game to win this game against the tractor boys. We got Chris. Yeah I mean I'm I'm getting back out of Liverpool train here. I all it takes is one splash of about a hundred and five million pounds for me to somehow find my faith in this team once again and that's not even true I still don't have a ton of faith. Not a not a massive midfield but they just have so much more quality and they have switch does they haven't really looks good at all and but neither has lipswitch to be fair. I just think they have too much quality they can go in there they can get points. There's a couple I looked at this one kind of at length here and I'm kind of strained away from team bets and what maybe going a little bit more individual although I will call out a few things I like that both teams score and over two and a half not that great odds is minus 130 so you're kind of if you can find it closer to like plus minus 120 minus 115 then maybe I actually do I feel like this kind of has like a 3-1

4:11maybe on it so I like the over three and a half that's plus 120 and then if you like that you might as well swing over just a slight bit more to get that Liverpool minus one and a half plus 130 although I am a little bit dubious just because they they've had two ties they played two I mean forest and Newcastle definitely a little bit more quality than lipswitch offers but I you know no shade but I do just think that I would consider that but one one thing I really wanted to narrow in on here Alexander Isok love him or hate him I like a bad here he's got if switched past two games they played Manchester United in Sunderland against Man United they gave up 11 shots on target against Sunderland for two different I guess styles of opponent there but Isok I like him to have two shots two plus shots on goal it's plus 110 and even if you if you want to throw that in within any time bet you could probably create a much better parlay but I like him to have two two plus shots on goal if switch has been given a 15 shots

5:15on target over the first two games and I just think Liverpool should probably hopefully be in fair bit of possession Isok should be able to get into some of those spots and right now I think even looking at that in the in the Liverpool lineup that we have projected we have Munoz making a start which I like that's a nice nice move from from Adam there I think that he'll get a little bit more kind of supply lines from that way but I so yeah Alexander Isok two plus two plus shots on target plus 110 do you have any thoughts on their lineup because a question I have is so at Graven Birch and McAllister haven't started together yet do you think that there's going to continue the season with Sova Sly next to one of those guys or do you think they actually move Sova Sly to write back or something just because of what from Pong has been doing? No yeah from Pong is not been great that's that's clear but I think that I think eventually I mean their strongest lineup will be Graven Birch and McAllister and then Sova Sly and then try to figure out where we're versed slides slides in or maybe I don't if he goes left if he goes out right it's

6:18a bit of a complication but yeah I mean you have for two spots you have Barca La Gacpo Verts and Munoz then and Rio but that is it is interesting I do think I mean if you're gonna go like FIFA mode and put your best players all in the field then Sova Sly at right back does make a lot of sense and from Pong hasn't offered much either in attack or defense so that is an interesting point but I think that it'll be a little I don't want to see Sova Sly go to play right back that's just not where he's at as best and I would rather Graven Birch and Sova Sly play through it is like kind of a double pivot yeah Liverpool I don't know if they planned on having Gacpo for at least the first half of the season but they're gonna have him so you know just another player here for him yeah I'm so glad they kept him they I mean you can't you can't sell the arrivals you can't like of that nothing nothing about that ever makes me happy and I would have been said I mean the the money would have been nice but you just don't sell the arrival I don't like the money's not going to your pocket Chris exactly that's what I'm saying I know fans are like

7:19but are you know our net spend it's like doesn't matter I just want to spend money get the players they want I'm going the same route as you for this game both teams score I think over in the goals as well I'm actually I actually like something a little different though Ipswich double chance plus 140 Ipswich are at home Portman Road at first half against Manchester United that first half they played level with Manchester United then that you know that that hambole the the the margarit muguayr thing then the game just opened up a little bit in the second half and but for the first half Ipswich you know they were level with Manchester United on the road at Ed old Trafford and then they were pretty even in the win against Sunerland as well still at home here so I think that just with how Liverpool in general have looked defensively and allowing opportunities I do think Ipswich are going to get enough opportunities I don't know if their defense is going to be strong enough I'm still not I still don't think overall like Liverpool have

8:22figured out their attack or their defense so that's kind of why I'm leaning a little bit of switch because I do think they can score but is Liverpool going to be able to get that winner maybe you think they are but I'll go a little different here and say how about a double chance here plus 140 odds either way both teams of score throw some things into that both teams of score and if you want to do I think if you do Liverpool double chance in that you're probably getting close to even odds or so so a couple different varieties in terms of what you can do there in terms of Saturday Saturdays are going to be the busiest the busiest Saturdays so far of the league of the season game week three Newcastle Bournemouth opens the day I think that one will be hopefully one of the more fun games Newcastle under a jassle has been pretty solid maybe if not surprisingly solid we saw them against Liverpool already Bournemouth have been okay under Marco Rosa

9:27one of the bets I like here I'm just going to go Newcastle at home always under always under Eddie House like St James's Park let's let's back this Newcastle team when they're healthy and fit let's just do it again I don't think I don't I'm not sold on overall Bournemouth defense under Marco Rosa just yet so you can get plus 120 in some spots for Newcastle money line but I think overall just the way the Newcastle have looked they've you know they've lost a lot of players but they bring in Nico Gonzalez their midfield looks fine their attack is also a bunch of guys that were on their team last season Ilanga Barnes Whistle all those guys dead itch has come in and been pretty much flawless at right back for them so let's just go Newcastle money line ride St James's Park and hope that's enough against the cherries yeah I like this bet I mean I've been definitely surprised by their performance thus far Anthony Longas been electric and I that goalie scored against Liverpool where he started about a yard off of Kirk Edge and then

10:29out ran him that was insane he was like Kirk Edge had about a yard start at halfway and then he gets he beats him like a 40 yard sprint by about another yard and his blows him off physically and so that was that was impressive and then I mean just they not that Tottenham's been quite bad but watching that game last week in a year like wow this Newcastle side looks feisty their the press is really strong and I like we just we saw Nico Gonzalez debut and I think that he'll offer a lot more to this midfield than in what they had especially from a death perspective they were not very deep after selling Tenoly and Bruno Gomerish yes I'm kind of like we're you're heading with this I could be an interesting one and definitely if Newcastle starts off you know with another win here it could just a dream star for them just like not having the biggest expectations going into the season yeah I can't remember where I put them in my my preseason preseason rankings I think you're probably outside the top 10 is my guess but better impressive so far and so shots to jassle otherwise Breadford our home against Sundrelin there's a

11:34couple of these spots Manchester City home against Coventry where I like betting on the home team I like the home team in a good spot but some of the odds I just didn't like is like enough to call them out like Manchester City over two and a half goals you're they got minus one 59 odds Breadford over one and a half goals minus 155 I didn't want to go to Breadford three goals here just because Sundrelin are still a stout team defensively I'm not confident enough to say okay here we go Breadford are playing well enough that I'm gonna bet three plus goals for them but you know if you want to maybe something like a Breadford man city money line parlay if you want to if you feel like it something like that other game here Brighton against Leeds is a lot of these games are pretty even outside of the ones that I want to take the home team a lot of them are pretty even in terms of what we're actually getting here the one that stands out to me in terms of another one that stands out to me just betting a team at home full of them I haven't really had

12:35the best start I think part of that schedule but home against Crystal Palace Crystal Palace is kind of in another world in terms of what's going on with their team but they added a lot of pieces they had a bunch of center backs so they're going to try and find out what works for them we're going to see what happens with SAR in this group we know Mateta's injured right now but full of them at home are below a Craven Cottage they had the Chelsea game where they almost they kind of you know I guess all these teams are making a game of it against Chelsea but I think these teams are even enough and full of them at home I think is enough for for me to go money lines that's plus 125 home money line that's interesting I was surprised to see no other Prem clubs go at Adam Warden here and try to get him like he just watching last week and he just seems like typically the best midfielder on the pitch can split a lot of lines you know wins the ball back really well I was I have expecting City to kind of go another Elliott Anderson route just just buy him for whatever 90 million pounds what I'm yeah that's a credit to palace

13:39for keeping them in the team and yeah definitely one of those games you got to keep on keep an eye on for Saturday there's one other one here that I wanted to talk about which is Tottenham versus 9 and 4 is for us coming off a 2-2 draw against Liverpool and Spurs Pointless in the first two games Pointless yeah might be pulling the season for them we'll see I did I did check on this apparently they were plus 5,000 for a relegation to start the season they're down to plus 1,400 for a relegation to start the season over two games so kind of interesting to see how quickly that's dropped I still think they'll be fine I think that would be pretty drastic to take that kind of bet but they've added what nine players ten players so like we've been continuing to sing their praise about what they've done in the window but it just hasn't gotten any better and Newcastle fully deserved the three points in that match up last weekend this one and then switching gears to the actual game forest is plus 1,45 money line and they've won the last four meetings against

14:44Tottenham which I think was kind of interesting I don't know that I want to stick on the forest plus one I at some point you maybe we've been saying this the last two seasons but at some point Tottenham has to bounce back right yeah at some point what I but what I will say is they haven't really created a much in attack if anything forest has been a little bit better I personally like to go there's a couple of bets here they'll throw out over two and a half as minus 110 if you just I think spurs not be able to create much in attack gets me a little bit scared of this one and it's minus 110 you can go both teams to score an over two and a half that's plus 110 but what I think happens here is that spurs are they don't offer much in attack they don't give them much in defense so far I like forest over one and a half goals so that's team total goals it's plus 120 that's a lot of goals yeah I'm kind of them scoring twice I mean yeah I like 90 and

15:50forest going into the season I'm still still not sure like they're at you know the Oliver Glazner peak here three games in the season obviously Tottenham aren't at their deserve be peak here so I think two teams that really haven't figured out how they want to play under the new manager who they're going to play that kind of thing specifically Tottenham who are they going to play in this game could be Kudus getting his first start Mikey Moore who started their first game they sent him on loan just stuff like that all over Savinio picking up sorry Sabiio picking up an injury before a possible first start so that is one I kind of just avoiding a little bit I did write down a bunch of draws because I think there's going to be a lot of interesting games on Saturday I wrote down Brighton Leads draw that one's plus 270 and specifically I want to dive into a little bit the relegation odds the whole city a home against Asimville this is a standalone game here the standalone game game week three whole city our home whole

16:50city whole six points whole six points Asimville 0 points 0 goals Asimville or minus 108 to win on the road all are plus three on three I think this is a double chance spot I think this is an underspot if you want to go draw here I think the draw is plus 270 all plus one and a half corners wait corners I don't know I wrote plus one and a half I thought those corners it's something but it's minus one ten I think it's corners I think it's plus one and a half corners is minus 110 but we'll see what does Asimville lineup looks like I know that obviously they have a lot of changes we'll see if imbi is going to come right into the eleven eco Jackson came in immediately we'll see if Garetzka comes in apparently wasn't fit enough to start last week so and also on the backline hard ball is could start as well so there could be a bunch of changes but I think it's within the same thing we've been saying the first couple weeks it's like all these new guys are coming in

17:53and that's nice but they've set a couple words of these guys they've you know had a couple training sessions with these guys they've never really played together and that's half through team so this isn't like okay one two guys coming in and you know they'll fit in it's you know it's half their team coming in so and that's even with like okay George Heming's is starting the first couple matches and you have like this he's the young kid in there and all these guys are pretty young as well so like a whole double chance here but looking at just to be relegated I was kind of surprised we're getting to be relegated hall or minus 230 and there's still the favorite to finish bottom at plus 180 kind of surprising just given like given what the table looks like given how coven tree of looked given what hall of actually done in the transfer window I know hole aren't going to win every game and keep this up but isn't it kind of surprising here that we're still getting hall as the favorite to finish last at plus 180 yeah could we get a hole to stay up that going I yeah I need what 40 or 38 to can the sportsbook give that out for us because I

18:58you know I take it but a lot of the American sports sportsbooks don't really play those games because they're scared scared the road of wire yeah I mean just if you look at like coven tree the mountain players they added compared to it or nice compared to a hole hole I think of at at 18 players I know that doesn't always work out but the fact that they already won two games they have they're like three deep in every midfield spot they're three deep in like every defender spot they're one they're not they're not a team that's like okay we're gonna go one-on-one against you four two three one and try to you know get goals and that kind of thing they started with this four five four one five defenders and that's really limited to these teams and getting opportunities against them and it's worked and I think the fact that just in terms of you know teams playing with five defenders is always like tricky to play against as an underdog just because you know they're gonna defend well you know they're gonna defend and sit back and if they string together

20:03some wins kind of like not un-unsimilar to what is underland did last season but I feel like maybe we should take another team to finish bottom coven tree plus two 20 ibswitch plus five 50 sundryland plus 14 hundred i mean you could go to crystal palace plus 1800 maybe that's just something like Adam Morton leaves in the in the winter transfer window something like that well one thing you didn't shut out was the you know big oly McBerney playing up top facing balls not down when it headers he's playing a huge role here for all yeah i mean they added they also added Muhammad Ali Cho they added Ilias on set these guys are other guys who can play striker as well it's just like they've added depth at every position I don't maybe it's not gonna matter maybe they're just gonna start giving up five goals in every game you can get smolfe not scoring themselves but you know so far it's worked and I don't see like a reason why coven tree are going to be noticeably noticeably better you know over

21:05just a head to head perspective i mean they already lost a head to head game and coven tree and zero points so i don't know i feel like you can go other routes in terms of who's actually gonna finish last but let's get into sundays games here Chris sunday that's some pretty big games first game first game of the day is maybe the uh i don't know what word i'm looking for for everton but they had a tough tough transfer window they now have one striker uh they got a right back though they got ainsley mason is former arsenal product so they got a right back but the exchange graylish who's a little older than in jai that's and and mason is kind of the main ones otherwise they let go of batto they thought they're getting uh they thought they're getting the american but about valigan was like uh you guys thought i wasn't fit so i'm gonna go back on this and not go to you guys it's kind of a weird situation really weird but this is where we're at

22:07and everton have one true number nine and tierno berry he started the season well they're homing its Manchester United who had that five goals last week how do you see this game going here yeah they didn't get better let's just say that uh transfer window i mean the ad graylish that doesn't really do much for me um but yeah losing in dyes is tough because you you seldom do another guy in the in the league and um yeah i hated that and then i mean valigan would have been an interesting because i feel like he's got the athleticism to kind of play play the style of a football that that david moe is kind of demands like he can get up vertical he can play off the shoulder he's like what have been great for them i feel like and would have been interesting to move for valigan too but i don't know how that broke down at the end um this this game is interesting just given the you know how it's happened i guess in the past how each team is performing united has been kind of all over um they had that loss uh in the initial game and then they they a real thriller in game two uh for nanas with a hat trick and then uh everton's been pretty good two

23:09o at home and then uh they drew born with one one away which is always a tough place to play um miss one i do think everton can kind of pull off a little bit call it a mini upside but i like them double chance and under three and a half goals it's plus one hundred i like it i like it i don't know what to think about man trust you united yet it's been a little bit um one game they're terrible the next they're better but still pretty erratic i just i don't and it's not like they're they're formed from the second half elaces and this come out yet so i i want to see a little bit more than before i start betting man united money line away from home yeah uh look better with cubby my no in the med field that that will that will help a little bit also look better with rashford over uh doorgu in the lineup which you know makes sense rashford doorgu on the wing that kind of a thing but yeah i like i like i like your bet i was going to give out i do like double chance i do like under two and a half as well under two and a half is plus one fifteen everton at home both these games last season one nil one nil to the away side surprisingly

24:16but i still think just in terms of this everton team i don't think anything is really going to change in terms of how they look how they look under moyas is it going to be you know they're going to try early hard defensively and try and win most for the most part in a lot of these games trying with some low scoring games right now we'll see if graylish comes in starting eleven i think that'll be one thing that that changes things up tyrick jorge just looks solid on the wing but tyrick jorge just isn't really look like he kind of looks like i don't know let's say it a doku early an early doku where it's just like all all finess all trying to do one on one dribbles but when it gets an opportunity to shoot doesn't look very good uh so that's kind of what they're dealing with and if Brennan Johnson starts like we kind of know what Bren Johnson is so i think they'll struggle the score but also matches united away from home we saw him struggle at hall the score and then you know the floodgates opening its ip switch don't only think that's going to happen it's abbertin here so yeah under two and a half goals plus one fifteen and like you said

25:17abbertin double chance under three and a half plus one hundred so i like i like both those and then you know it's going to be another five two result and too bad for us i guess the other game the last game here no money nafe football last game and the biggest one i think everyone's looking forward to this because kris if you remember i said chelsea where it going to be or could be the biggest challenger to arsonal this season in the title they can get a point here they can get a point at the emirates that would be massive but right now arsonal are minus one fifty ish to win depending where you look minus one forty five at draft kings the draws coming in about two sixty you know we got a new we got a new better b-t-r odds on the site and that's uh for some reason that's taken over maybe we have a deal with better for them to be in all of these lists here but either way you believe in arsonal here having allowed a goal yet a simple mostly simple one new win at ashen villa on that was the monday

26:22game so and this is one this is a few games ahead of champions league as well so a big game in that aspect and then we may start to get into some rotation a little bit for these teams yeah this one's interesting i mean you like you said to start you've been all over chelsea even from our first futures pod the most interesting like arsonal with a nice clean one o'onel win last weekend they've given up 0.26 xg per in their first two or total in their in each game in their first two games so they have not given up any opportunities they're deep they're deep in their backline chelsea on the other hand have have been kind of scoring that will but have been all over you brought this up before the show but they had like what 26% possession against bright and in four goals Morgan Rodgers works looks worth every penny him a cold Palmer you know if you're like a backline and you're like how am i going to shut these guys down how am i going to stop them from spraying a job Pedro like that's that's stuff my challenge so something's got to give in

27:22this one is chelsea going to try to tighten it up but in the backline are they going to continue just scoring goals as arson is going to be these guys one out i tend to think that it's going to be the under i have under two and a half is plus one oh five and then i think it's arsonal money line and them and over one and a half is minus one oh five two so i still think arson will get it down there at home nothing yet in the season has told me otherwise that i shouldn't believe in them i did miss my my my spread bet my minus one and a half to arsonal last week and so that was a bit disappointing but i still just think that they're quite clearly the best team in the league yeah i think this will be an interesting game here for what has been the the chubby alansal strategy of kind of seating possession and opening allowing them to go on the counter frequently and open things up in their attack which you know when you have job Pedro when you have col Palmer and you have Morgan Rodgers that works really well second to work as well against arsonal i'm not sure that the possession battle will be interesting is it going to be is arsonal going to

28:26accept that okay the child sees going to be like here here's here's the ball and we're going to try and take it off you kind of a thing and get the ball in the counter as arsonal going to play like that of anyone though of you know these first couple teams at Chelsea have played obviously arsonal are a little a little different of an animal in terms of that also the big thing will be what is the Chelsea midfield look like if my moist is kaisato is out again okay it's probably i guess lavia and uh reese james will be back in there uh but you know at the end of the day these guys aren't kaisato i think kaisato is a level above lavia in terms of what this group is going to do i overall i think and they told and so for nanos yeah yeah he he really has an i don't uh did he play last game i don't know he didn't but yeah so i think you kind of look at it like the defenses the defensive issues that Chelsea have had and what the midfield has looked like i think that's just edge arsonal in addition to arsonal being at home this could be a game that you

29:29know pops up for a bunch of goals but let's get a little simple here just do arsonal money live which you can get minus one forty five and we'll set it messing with goals because i do think this could be a game where arsonal find it a little easier to score uh then against that s and villa teams just in terms of how Chelsea want to play here uh i do think it could be you know arsonal get up to two three goals something like that but so i throw corners in here really simple over seven and a half corners for the game with arsonal money line and you're getting plus one of six odds so try to be a little different here and trying to find something where i'm not not risking it uh on the goals so a little different of a parlay i know Chris is on the under but well the go go corners here because i do think that whether it's arsonal or Chelsea getting corners i think i think getting eight corners in this game should be realistic yeah i think so set it in a half so it's like it was tough to get any value on like arsonal corners i think it was five and a half and it was like minus one sixty so not not much there so you do have to get a bit creative

30:33and add it with something else a lot of bad numbers but that is the last game of game week three Chris and then we got champions league champions league just comes upon us like that but i think champions league it's like they have this week and then it's like a month until the next game because the international break is like three weeks long so a weird a little weird schedule here for uh the twenty six twenty seven season but road to word icon a slash soccer i got the cheat sheet pulled up man city are the biggest favorite there's only two teams with an apply goal total above one point nine that's Liverpool Chris's Liverpool Moneyline team in Manchester City home against cup entry uh what's your favorite i was gonna ask favorite bet what is your outside of Liverpool game what game you most looking forward to this weekend um that's a great question i would say probably i mean i like i really like watching new castle last weekend they were kind of fun to

31:33watch um so i'll keep my eyes on that new castle born myth and then the other one just because i have a fun little bet on them is that and i am curious to see where this goes is that not i'm forest top i'm game yeah i like both those as well if bright and wear closer to a full strength that probably put them that bright and leads game at the top i think two teams both badland could be battling for european spots i think that will be uh i'd liberally like i think leads and bruntford so far from what we've seen actually on the pitch and what they've done in the transfer window i think both those teams are realistically uh fighting for top eight spot i mean look at those odds actually before we leave but yeah otherwise otherwise as long as ever tin at least get a point against Manchester United that will be a game that i have my eye on as well yeah but they have to get a point uh leads top ten right now top half is plus one thirty five bruntford is minus two twenty

32:34the bruntford hype is you know off the walls at this point um not even forest is kind of around where i took them before the season they're plus one sixty right now so yeah they were all they all the i guess bruntford forest were like right around plus one sixty plus one fifty yeah the bruntford bruntford hype man it it is it's going heavy and yeah i agree with most of it but it's you can see it in these odds it's it's it's it's kind of off the charts here i mean just in terms of we have bruntford in this game against sundaulin who are playing in europe european football here and you know they have the second best odds for a clean sheet and they're the third biggest failure on the slate that's that's what we're getting and they're also favored at uh leads last weekend so so we got but game week three chris thank you for listening and we'll see everyone for game week four