PREVIEW! Arizona should SMOKE UCF! #1 Arizona vs #8 UCF BIG 12 Quarterfinals BREAKDOWN:

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The post season starts now.

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Arizona UCF preview coming your way next.

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I'm your host, Lee Tuleen, your resident college basketball guru, stats nerd,

point guard by game, and ball, nor by trade.

And I'm excited to talk Arizona host with you today.

Today on the show, I got a fun one.

I'm going to break down the UCF matchup with keys in place,

referencing the previous game in which Arizona won by seven in at UCF

and facing all those palms and all those things of distractions.

They're on a neutral site now, but UCF is hot and has everything to play for.

I'll give my prediction and break down what could skew this game.

That's all ahead.

So let's dive right in.

First of all, look at this.

I got a Locked-On Wildcats shirt.

And I got the Arizona hat.

So for those of you who always want more Arizona gear,

it is back because I am back at home.

And it's great to be back with you because there's no better time than March.

And it's where approaching my seven favorite days of the year.

The three days from, I guess we can go eight Thursday through Saturday of.

I guess Thursday through Sunday of conference championship.

I'd go Friday through Sunday brackets are out.

Skip four days and the first four days Matt is favorite seven days of the year.

I am a happy man.

So without said, let's talk about this matchup.

UCF staves off elimination makes their spot a whole lot cleaner for the resume.

Because they were trailing on Cincinnati who needed a deep run in March

in the conference trying to make it to March madness.

UCF, I think was in even with the loss, but it was an I think.

And madness can happen.

Bid Steelers do occur and UCF goes on a crazy run,

erasing an eight point lead late trailing for the majority of the game

and winning it over time against Sincy.

UCF should be in, but they still have everything to play for

because you don't want to leave any doubt.

UCF is a difficult team for Arizona to play.

Arizona should win.

They should win.

Don't get me wrong.

But Arizona has issues with this matchup more so than a lot of teams

that would be eight to the conference.

That speaks highly to the big 12 as a whole,

but also speaks highly to UCF.

Because if you look at what Arizona does really well,

UCF does so to a lesser degree.

UCF's 52nd and Ken Palm, which really speaks to the fact they're not that great.

But what they are is 38th and offense, 104th and defense.

But on defense, there is one thing they do very well.

They rebound well.

They rebound well.

They mitigate the opportunities for other teams to get second chance points

because they clear their defensive glass.

They're not good at forcing turnovers.

They're not good at preventing baskets, but they are good at rebounding.

And what's strange about that is they play a zone.

UCF often will employ a zone.

Didn't do it too much against Arizona in their previous matchup.

But I've watched a lot of UCF play this year.

I've watched a lot of tape for this.

And they play a one three one zone frequently.

I think Arizona with co-opete has the facilities to break that down

and dominate both the interior and knocked out some threes

because they've been better at shooting the ball recently.

But it's important to note that that's something that they do.

And they are good at blocking out and getting rebounds.

Really, really hard to do both.

To play zone be active, cause turnovers and rebound.

They're not great at forcing turnovers, but what they are is disruptive in the zone.

Now, the next thing that you look at their analytical profile,

you say, okay, they shoot the three well.

They shoot 37% from three, which is good for 29th in the nation.

That's pretty good.

They're not very good at it from two.

They shoot 52% Arizona is obviously elite at preventing both of those things.

But the thing you notice is that they shoot a lot of two.

So even though they're not particularly great at it,

their point distribution is heavily skewed to two pointers.

And they have size.

They have a seven foot three guy roaming around the paint.

He could alter shots.

They have multiple guys who can score the ball.

And if you look at their recent box scores,

you don't know who's going to be that steps up.

Their best players, Thiem is folks.

And he scored 30.

Arizona fans know him well.

And he was very good to get and punish the drop coverage.

Arizona employees drop coverage.

Mo crevice protects the rim.

And he shoots mid range jump shots and he made him in the second half.

Arizona held in the four of 10.

And he was far less effective than he was in the first half.

But the guy can play.

And that really helps is like you've seen a couple guards.

Be able to score off of drop coverage.

They haven't been particularly efficient,

but he's been one of the better ones against Arizona's drop coverage.

And then you have Riley Google who scores a lot.

He's a really good slashing wing.

Not as worried about him,

even though he's tremendously talented.

And you've got still well in Berks and all these guys who

who add to their array of why they can score.

Well, the reason they're making the tournament is not defense.

It's offense.

But what matters in this matchup is that they rebound.

It's that UCF rebounds like those.

Their size is important to them in having a chance in this matchup.

And if you look at what UCF did against Cincinnati.

Is they are racistly they're 21 and 10,

but they had lost three state.

Three straight entering.

That the.

Final surge where you get to say yeah,

instead of being 2010 were 21 and 10,

21 and 11 probably if Arizona takes care of business.

But they they have everything to play for.

And I'm looking at the box score.

And FEMA's folks scored four points in a game that they won.

So they have other guys,

or I like Google 15,

you might call still well 17,

John Bull 13.

And then you kind of just think about like.

If if I were to guess leading score for them in this game.

I would guess FEMA's folks because they're going to try to attack drop coverage.

Berks is the guy probably try to take away from three

because when he shoots the three well,

they're more prolific.

This is a game that's played at Cincinnati space.

At Cincinnati's tempo.

And their desired outcome was the outcome for 32 minutes of this game.

They were up.

They led.

And I can palm delineates the game from.

Instead of halves to quarters.

Cincinnati is up seven after the first 10 minutes.

UCF was up six after the next 10.

So it's still plus one.

Cincinnati Cincinnati goes up.

Nine.

They win the third quarter by eight.

They led by once.

They're up nine.

And then it was a nine point win in the fourth quarter by UCF.

And it was forcing pressure, forcing turnovers.

And I really don't see a way in which Arizona loses this game.

Unless they have a ton of turnovers.

Unless they really struggle against the zone and they don't dominate the glass at all.

And so I see Arizona having a good time.

In this game.

I see them being sharp and having a very dedicated effort to pounding the ball inside,

waiting for the defense to double.

Spray the ball out.

And now Braden Burries shoots open threes.

Anthony Delorso shoots open threes.

This is a team that has had rest and have been whole for a week after the

right much of the season after the Oklahoma State game.

You saw Kansas was two days later.

Four days later or five days later against Texas Tech.

They basically didn't have co-peat against BYU four days after that.

Had to reinvent themselves against Houston.

Three days after that.

Three days after that was Baylor and.

Burries is sick as a dog for that stretch up until the Baylor game.

And then Bradley was nursing a cold.

They played Kansas run.

Kansas out of Jim.

Just a day two days later they play Iowa State.

Colorado.

We know how that was an emotional game and altitude.

There was.

Strange stuff.

But now there's been a week.

The last time Arizona plays is March 7th.

It's been March 12th.

And they've had plenty of time to acclimate.

And settle down and recognize like there's more to play for.

There's more to play for.

And I expected very good effort from Arizona tonight.

I've got Arizona in cruise control of this one.

But I don't mean that to be dismissive UCF because I've actually liked watching them all year.

And I've been a very big proponent of like that's the next best team.

Behind the top of the conference.

But.

There's a difference between the best team in the country.

And the best team beyond the top tier of the best conference in the country.

And that's the difference between Arizona and UCF.

I'll break down the keys to the game with statistics to back it up.

And key matchups next.

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Welcome back everyone leave to lean with you here on locked on wild cats breaking down the quarter finals of the big 12 tournament.

Oh I cannot wait I got my locked on wild cats shirt just order it really happy about it you guys are free to buy one as well on the on the merch but honestly what I love most is your support and your support of your Arizona wild cats and what I want to talk about here is the matchups of this game and what will decide who wins we all agree Arizona should win.

But what will assure that they will and here is what I think it is the first one and I'm going to start defense for Arizona.

The first one is make them is folks a score not a distributor when them is folks gets the other guys involved and you see Berks and still well hit a couple of threes.

Then that makes them far more dangerous than when them is folks scores 30.

The game is folks can score 30 at UCF and Arizona didn't play particularly well and Arizona still wins comfortably that's what happened point blank period.

They come back against Cincinnati and famous folks at a really bad game but he's eight by a by points output but he's starting to become a distributor and those guys get their juices flowing and start feeling confident that makes them a more difficult offense to stop.

The same vein of that I think holding Berks still well Johnson and Google that quartet to six or fewer threes is absolutely vital.

Arizona does very well they only give up about seven threes per game and in many outcomes they have given up fewer and you know if they're going to give up threes I want there to be from from folks off no past possessions.

No easy shots off of three balls and Arizona does a good job.

A lot of teams say okay we're going to pack the paint make them shoot threes over you and in college game the pack line defense Virginia popularized it many teams have employed this and it makes teams miss threes and you live.

But Arizona doesn't do that what they do is they dare you to get into the paint and try to score against McCree boss and they play an NBA style defense and have the size and the athleticism to contest.

But that all relies on staying with your man and not being beaten and not having the defense collapse.

Arizona should give up fewer than that that number of threes in maybe in the game but certainly to that quartet I named and once again as Johnson still well Berks and Google I think Arizona should do that.

And then here's the next one it's rebounding.

I believe what will happen is UCF will play a zone they have they've switched between defenses and the answer to the question is I'll have to find this is what do what percentage of possessions will they go zone.

My guess is 50% or more of this game they'll play zoning is Arizona and because they don't think they can match up man for men.

So they'll play a one three one zone and Arizona likely will try to attack that with two at the top you want to face an odd front with an even front and even front with an odd front vice versa.

And I believe Arizona will have buries and Bradley up top and what are called the slots and they'll penetrate drive and if car chain cove and an airstode and Delor so hit threes watch out.

Now the other thing that Arizona can do is they've got another kind of a zone killer that's coa Pete coa Pete can find the ball in the middle face up and see the defense and distribute I think coa Pete will have another good game.

I may not look as prolific as the Colorado game and scoring because people are packed in but I think his impact on the game as a passer will be very noted.

And I think UCF's defense as I mentioned in the output I mean the out of the intro is gimmicky UCF's defense is poor they're they're one of the better offenses in the country and they're a very mediocre defense.

So a key would be attack the paint and attack rebounds because they play a zone so I want Arizona to be plus 10 on the glass in this game and I think that's very doable because I think Arizona should win this game by double digits and then the next thing I would tell you.

Is I think that Arizona should win the category of extra possession points it's not just second chance points but it's also points off of turnovers I think Arizona should win that by about 15.

I think Arizona wins that by about 15 and if they do that and are plus 10 on the glass they will win.

Now of course I got to talk to you about pop point paint oriented points against the zone it's going to be lower in most odds but you could see a ton of fouls and that equals free throw that your paint or into points for those who are new and joining and not the the everydayers who have heard this a thousand times.

Paint oriented points are points in the paint plus free throws made and I see Arizona getting around 55 in this game and I think that amounts to 55 of their 84 points something like that and I think Arizona it's a couple three against the zone that's daring them to shoot them I think they're very sharp and intentional and how they execute offensively that's the stuff I kind of think will occur.

It's hard to imagine that UCF even though they've got momentum that came off a nice comeback in momentum and March absolutely matters like I am not discounting UCF whatsoever I just think you see a sharp Arizona a rested whole contingent of the Arizona Wildcats is better than a hot momentum UCF team I think that's just the this playing and simple truth.

And the last key I'd give you if there's an individual key like I was very big on in the Colorado game I don't care what happens I want to see co-op he be aggressive.

I want another co-op many touches game against the zone I think it's harder to give as many shot attempts as I pointed out but I want to see co-op he established early and often and I think the player who reaps the most rewards of that is Braden Burries I think Braden Burries can catch and instead of being denied and kind of have a zone defense square up and look him in the eye they'll have to ship toward him.

He can attack the rim and get out and go and transition and I have a commenter a faithful commenter who has been with me in many shows I've done noran he says Burries is growing into into a guy dipping his toes in the water be a top 10 pick where they talent leading the top team the country pretty amazing year growth room.

Well noran I'm answering you here hopefully you're still here I have a number six of my big where I know you know I'm a draft guy I had James Barlow on yesterday and we talked about him James has him lower and James and I don't disagree too often I think he's going to end up skewing more towards my side where Burries the top eight pick in the draft like he's that good.

Copies awesome to this Arizona basketball team is fantastic I firmly believe they're the best team in the country and Duke's injured going into the ACC tournament Foster wouldn't be back until the final four gone buzz out for the ACC tournament and if you look like.

If you look at Michigan LJ casings out they've had to change the rotation and for me something's just a little off on Michigan so I firmly do believe Arizona is the best team I happen to be the host of lots of Wildcats but I really am not just preaching that to to say that to ingratiate myself I said that before the season for those you want to fact check my very first episode I said this would be a one seed the team that can contend for a final four so far lived up to that building next up I'll give you the prediction if of this game that I've got with the score matchups keep players.

And just kind of how I see the big 12 tournament unfolding thank you guys for listening as always coming up next the prediction on locked on wild cats.

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Welcome back to locked on wild cats leave two lane with you here and I kind of told you guys at the beginning I feel Arizona is going to come out sharply in this game I think they'll be ready for the one three one defense that Johnny dockens and UCF employee I don't think the pressure that played Cincinnati when they were leading will really bother Jaden Bradley or Braden buries and honestly I pressure and turnovers have not caused Arizona Asian.

She's all season that is a really good sign going forwards a lot of vulnerability happens in terms of extra possessions in Arizona wins that recipe quite frequently I gave the keys in the previous segment I'll give you the matchups now.

I think Jaden Bradley the big 12 player here all big to all defense gets a tough match up defense theme is folks.

I think Riley Kugel will draw the assignment of both Ivankar Chankov and Braden buries I think still well probably gets co-opied and I think Berks probably gets Karchankov a little bit as well I think there's going to be some switching on the wings.

I mean when when Aristotle and Delors are in I think you see Berks and still well be defended by those guys I think you're going to see Kugel if he's hot get Karchankov but I think Karchankov initially starts on still well.

There still is a little broader than Kugel Kugel's more narrow and athletic and springy and Krivas defense on the interior against John Bull.

Nothing crazy there there's no screwy matchups Arizona is pretty by the book in that I think UCF will try to match up similarly but ultimately play a lot of zone because they cannot match up with co-opied in the interior and I think they cannot match up with Mo Krivas in the interior despite John Bull being tall.

I expect John Bull to get in foul trouble I expect Arizona to live at the line of this game.

I expect Arizona to get out and run and get layups because a team like Cincinnati really stifled UCF UCF where it's 66 points with five extra minutes.

This is a team that's good offensively.

I expect the game to be a little higher scoring than that but not by leaps and bounds.

I see this game coming down to extra possessions and I see Arizona forcing more turnovers and getting more rebounds.

And thus they will win this game and I get I alluded to it but I didn't really give a number I said plus 15 in terms of quite soft turnovers and second chance points.

I'd second though I think that probably is too low I kind of think Arizona will find their way into like 30 if you combine points off of turnovers and second chance point I think they score around 30 and that means that they're probably conceiving about 12 to 15.

And I think that's really really hard to overcome for a team like UCF they'd have to shoot the ball unbelievably.

And then the next and last thing I would tell you before giving my score prediction is I think you're going to see Jaden Bradley scored zero points last game.

Can I have a you know what I'm the big 12 player of the year and it's not that he has a chip on his shoulder but it's the narrative around you know AJ DeBonza should have won JT top and should have won.

I think Jaden Bradley really controls this game both on offense and on defense he limits them as folks and he scores the ball effectively.

And you see brain buries and co-opete do their thing like that's the triumvirate of players that do the offense of carrying and McCree Voss will reap the rewards of here's an all you.

Here's a low post touch from a high high low from co-opete that co-opete generates with his passing ability that opens up more for Arizona.

He'll get easy buckets and be a great defender he may have a double double but I see this as a Bradley buries peat game.

I see them having a really really strong game and the rest of the guys reaping the rewards of their unselfishness those guys draw attention they distribute the ball.

So at that said I've got 84 68 as my score I got Arizona winning by 16 points I think they are ahead for the vast majority I think it gets closer.

Of course the end of the first half Arizona pulls away and then the opening of the second half it's it's you know smooth sailing from there.

All the way UCF tries to mount a few rallies Arizona contains and they lead by double digits for the vast majority of the second half.

And I think that if you look at the big 12 tournament as a whole I think you see a lot of chalk.

Very curious I think right as I'm about to end this is when I was state and Texas Tech play I gave you guys my bracket before the before the tournament and I said I was state was going to win.

I was state wasn't playing well to finish the season I think they have got revenge on their mind I got some Texas tech that is a little more schemeable without JT topic I got Iowa state winning that one.

I've got Arizona winning this one those two matching up I got Arizona again and then I think Houston is going to win against BYU I kind of think it'll be uglier than like then you might think it like it's going to be a lower scoring ugly game and Houston will win.

So when they played BYU the previous time it was at BYU and they were firmly in control I think BYU is just going to try to muck this game up and send me a low scoring one in which Houston is just better at that game.

And then I think Kansas and TCU will be a dog fight I think Kansas will win but I don't think it'll be one side whatsoever I've got Houston getting revenge on Kansas Arizona Houston championship and I got the cats taking it.

So with that said Arizona big 12 chance of my eyes I will have a preview for you of the next game whether it is in the NCAA tournament or hopefully tomorrow afternoon against either Iowa state or Texas tech.

Thank you guys for listening leave to lean with you here and I cannot wait to give you March coverage each and every day on locked on wild cats.

The next show will be of course postcast tune into this this afternoon for postcast after this game and make sure you subscribe and follow locked on wild cats so you get all the list episodes and all the alerts.

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