Prop Points | April 2, 2026

0:00these sports betting network. Welcome into a Thursday edition of Prop points here on Vs in these sports betting network. We welcome in everyone streaming a long live over on serious XM channel 158. Just a reminder, right off the top, you can hear prop points in podcast form on Apple on Spotify, wherever you get your podcast, just search prop points, search Vs in, you'll find us, you'll find all of the Vs in programming in podcast form. Big show coming your way as we head into final four weekend. We'll talk about a modest major league baseball slate. We get some best bets from Jeff Erickson later in the show. Got a healthy slate in the NBA tonight. Six games, most of which should be competitive. A lot of play in a lot of playoff implications in the association tonight. We'll also take a look at a unique situation unfolding in the NBA where we still have several major rewards up for grabs heading into the final week of

1:00the seasons. We'll give our take on the most improved player, whether SGA has indeed locked up the MVP with about seven games to play. And of course, we'll preview the final four. We'll have former college hoops head coach at Iona at Providence Tim Welch joining the show for his take on the two games coming our way on Saturday night. Jeff, we got a couple news items. We got to hit off the top one in the NFL one in major league baseball and we'll start with football. The Las Vegas Raiders made a signing this morning, Jeff, they have a new quarterback. It is Kurt Cousins who signed what on the surface is being pitched as a five year 172 million dollar deal. That is not at all the case. That's a ridiculous number to throw out there. This is really a one year 20 million dollar deal. There are a ton of incentives. There are a ton of team options. Of course, that can make this deal significantly more valuable, but no full guarantees for Kurt Cousins beyond 2026. I think this is one of those headlines that you see it and you're like, okay, what's going on here? Are they drafting Fernando Mendoza? I don't think this changes anything for the Raiders who have told us throughout the offseason. Look, we want to take

2:02Mendoza. We don't necessarily want to throw him to the wolves right away in week one. Yeah, absolutely. If you look at the cumulative contracts that Kurt Cousins have signed, first of all, you'd be very confused. Secondly, you would say like, okay, I need his agent. But third, this is this does make sense. This is he's a perfect mentor for Mendoza. And this might even last beyond a second year. We'll see unlikely to do so, but I think they structured just so they could spread out capots and things of that nature. As you said, only this first year is guaranteed. You look at those Raiders roster and it's rough. It's really rough. I know they signed Tyler Linder Baum at center. And that's a big one. Market setting deal there at center. You don't see centers paid what he gets paid, especially in terms of guarantees. But the line is still a work in progress. The past caching core is still a work in progress. They often says a whole. You want to kind of ease Mendoza into everything here. This makes sense. Cousins seems like the ideal mentor for that. You see like the relationship he had with Michael Penex and how he was, you know, he was very supportive last year in that

3:03role. It's like the ideal guy to have. And it's probably the right situation for him as well, knowing that he's got a better opportunity to play here, or at least for a short amount of time, as opposed to other places there, where he'd be signing as a pure backup. Yeah, I think it's a realization by Kirk Cousins of where he is in his career at this point, because when he signed with the Atlanta Falcons, you know, the plan was not for them to draft Michael Penex and him to be the mentor, right? I think there was an initially subrissling at that. And you know, he had no choice, but to kind of, you know, relax into that role over the last couple of years. Obviously, Penex goes down and he ends up playing the second half of last season. But I don't think there was another team that was willing to offer this kind of opportunity to Kirk Cousins. And look, I think he knows what he's signing up for at this point in his career. It's unlikely that he's going to be the starter the entire year. What would you set the over under at as far as like what week is Fernando Mendoza taking over? So you and I talked about this earlier, a serious exome fantasy. And I kind of posture that it might be three to four games. You've

4:04convinced me it might be a little longer. I can see that there because the incentives for the Raiders to win this upcoming year are pretty low. Or I should say the incentives, but the expectations are pretty low for the Raiders. It might be six, seven games, eight games, something of that nature as well. I, you know, the thing is he could get hurt. I mean, that's always possibly in the enforcement dose and action even sooner than that. It's not like cousins has a whole lot of mobility left in this stage of his career. And it chances are we will be facing a significant pressure on that past rush. I'll say six games week six. I think that's when we see Mendoza. Raiders win total currently sitting five and a half right now at the Draft King Sportsbook Raiders six to one to make the postseason. Big news and majorly baseball this morning, Jeff, number one prospect in baseball counter Griffin will be called up by the Pittsburgh Pirates. He'll start at shortstop tomorrow's the home opener against the Baltimore Orioles. It's kind of a unique situation here, Jeff, where everybody's been been talking about Connor Griffin. He's been the buzzy guy, the buzzy rookie in fantasy

5:04baseball. And, you know, while we saw several other big name rookies make the opening day roster. Pirates told us, you know, a few weeks before opening day, we're going to send him down to AAA. We're going to get him some seasoning. He played five games at AAA, one seven for 16 with three doubles, three steals couldn't have played a whole lot better. But why send him down for a week, Jeff? Like, do you think this was the plan all along? Was it truly okay? We saw what we needed to see in that small of a sample? Yeah, I can't be the seasoning, right? You know, like, okay, I'm seasoned now. No, it's probably not that. I think it probably ties into contact contractual negotiations. We saw a report from Buster Olney that they're deep into it's negotiations there for him to sign a big contract similar to cold Emerson similar to like the Roman Anthony deal last year. It might be a record setting deal just because he's a unique prospect in the time that it's coming up here. But this is the pirate's way. Usually they usually require this sort of contract before they call the player up. They've botched that before in the past there. They botched the timing with schemes. They botched the

6:05timing with Bubba Chandler. So I think they wanted to make sure they get it right. Also, it's the home opener on Friday. That has a big aspect there to it as well. He will be in the lineup. Obviously you're not going to call him up with him not being in the lineup there. So absolutely. Yeah, I think this is one of those where I think that was part of the plan all along. It can't be just because of like they've liked what they've seen in like five triple A games. Folks, are you still using your buddy's got instinct as a betting strategy as a fantasy strategy? Come on. You deserve better. Rotawire has the real tools, the pros use rankings, projections, breaking news updates, data that never sleeps. Whether you're setting fantasy lineups, making picks or placing bets. Rotawire's award-winning insights give you a real edge. Get started today at rotawire.com and use our promo code Beeson. B-S-I-N put that in over at rotawire to get 15% off any subscription package we offer. All right, Nick. It's time this time of the year of the season for the NBA where he starts to talk a lot more about the awards. It's award season.

7:06So let's talk MVP. The spurs can't lose. They keep on winning. They keep on winning. Wembee with another huge game last night is SGA still your favorite for MVP? What sort of chances Wemba and Mjana have in getting that award? So look, if I were setting the market, Jeff, I think I would make this a little bit closer. You know, right now SGA minus 300 at Traffking's Wemba Njama plus 220. Just because I think there has been a narrative shift, which certainly matters when it comes to these NBA awards. And it's kind of feeling like at least the second half of the season has belonged to Victor Wemba Njama. He has been the story. The spurs have been the story. You know, we kind of expected. Okay, see to be doing what they're doing. We expected SGA to be doing what he's doing, even though these numbers are historically great. The efficiency is off the charts for SGA. He's going to probably win the MVP. He's going to be deserving of it. But I will not be surprised if this vote ends up being a lot closer perhaps than some people expect. I don't know that there's a ton of momentum beyond those top two. I mean, obviously, Lucodotch is averaging 0.2 points short

8:06of 40 points per game over essentially the last month. So he's played as well as anybody. But I do think it was too slow of a start for him. Too slow of a start for the LA Lakers. There's still kind of the no defense narrative with Lucodotchich. That's going to hold him back, especially when you're comparing him to maybe the best defender we've ever seen in Victor Webman Yama and an excellent defensive guard in Shakeyel, just Alexander. So it feels to me like SGA is going to win this award. If I had a vote, I would seriously think about casting it for Webman Yama. You know, I think the minutes per game thing is something that for me. I counted as a positive. Like him putting up these numbers, him having this impact when he's like barely cracking 30 minutes per game. I think makes it even more impressive. But you can also say, okay, you know, SGA has played hundreds more minutes than Victor Webman Yama this season. Him being on the court more. You can see why that would be more valuable. I think this is an award that's going to be it's going to be relitigated when we get to the Western conference finals and we get spurs thunder and whoever wins that series, it's going to feel like, man, I probably should have won the MVP. Yeah, absolutely. And you know, I'm really intrigued to see what happens.

9:07These last stretch games there too, because like we said before, spurs just don't lose. They're just keep on gaining and gaining. They're the objects are in this in this mirror closer than they appear sort of team. How about most improve player? I know you have a personal connection to one of the candidates here. Yeah, I wish I could say like, oh, yeah, Jalen Dern is my cousin. I have a personal connection to the Kiel Alexander Walker for my personal fantasy leagues, which I think is what you're alluding to. But this this is a fascinating race. This is one of my favorite awards to handicap to talk about throughout the season because with the amount of young talent that we have in the NBA right now, there are so many viable candidates. And look, when you get to the 75 game mark, things are going to be whittled down. It's basically a two-man race now between the Kiel Alexander Walker and Jalen Dern. You know, Denny Obdia was your front runner mid season. He missed a chunk of time. You know, the Blazers falling back in the Western Conference being a playing team. I think has hurt him a little bit. So you look at the odds board right now. And the Kiel Alexander Walker minus one 30 Jalen Dern plus one 15. I will say this. If the

10:07Kiel Alexander Walker wins, it'll be the first time an NBA team has had back-to-back, most improved players, Dyson Daniels, of course won this for the Hawks last year. I do think Jalen Dern moreso fits the mold of the type of player who's won this award over the last decade. It's a very good player jumping into all-star territory. You know, we saw that with Maxi. We saw it with marketing, which I'm a rant, Julius Randall, Brandon Ingram, etc. So he's kind of the guy that would fit that mold a little bit better. But I think I've been a little bit more impressed, Jeff, by what Kiel Alexander Walker has become. You know, a guy who was a average to decent role player, you know, last year goes to a new situation in Atlanta. We didn't even know if he would be a starter for this team. And not only has he been a consistent starter, he's made a bigger leap, I think, than just about anybody in the NBA this season. Top 20 and total point scored, top 20 and total steals. He's fifth in the NBA in made threes this season. He was somebody who always was never shy about shooting threes was not overly efficient. Earlier in his career, he went from 9.4 points per game last year, Jeff. As a role player to 20.6,

11:08he scaled up his minutes, he scaled up his usage, and he's gained efficiency. That is really, really difficult for a guard to do last 25 games. By the way, for Nikhil Alexander Walker, 21 points, three and a half rebounds, four and a half assists, 1.7 steals, 48, 41, 95, shooting splits. And that's of course coincided with this great run for the Atlanta Hawks. We're going to play a game of rate that prop when we come back here on prop points, we look at some NBA props and baseball props as well. Keep it here. You want to prop one? You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now so can you be some programs you access to the same real time insights the sharps use, no secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious betters are turning

12:09knowledge into profit with Vs in pro. You're watching prop points on Vs in these sports betting network. Welcome back to prop points, Jeff Ericsson here with Nick Whalen. Time for another game of rate that prop. Michael Cohen goes out and searches for the best basketball and baseball props. You can I rate it one to five, one being awful, terrible, no good, don't want any part of it to five amazing, fantastic. Ones and fives are really hard to get here in this show. Let's do NBA. Let's talk a little SGA. We're talking about the MVP race, the last segment. Shay Gilges salad examiner over 31 and a half points minus one over at the Draft King sportsbook. Nick, rate that prop. Yeah, minus one away. Our price here tonight, which is which is interesting. You know, you get going up against a Lakers team that has had its defensive faults this season, but it certainly

13:10played a lot better on that end since the all star break. So I'm going to give this a three kind of a default score, right? You really can't go lower than three on any sort of SGA scoring prop because we know what he's capable of any given night. Now you look back at his lone match up with the Lakers earlier this season. He sat out the second time these teams played. What for 30 points in just 29 minutes in a game that that OKC ended up running away with. So part of the the handicap here is, OK, do you think this game could evolve into a blowout a couple months ago? I would have said yes, because of how the Lakers were playing because this game is in OKC, but I think we have a lot more faith in in the Lakers keeping this game tight even though the spread is at nine and a half totals up at 232 and a half. You look at the recent form for SGA has gone over in six of his last 11 games, obviously capable of going over this number on any given night. And like I said, depends a lot on what you think of the Lakers side of this game, keeping it close enough for SGA to have to play 35 36 minutes. Keep in mind though, OKC has to keep its foot on the pedal. San Antonio is giving them no breathing

14:12or whatsoever for that one seed in the Western conference. And look, we've seen teams over the years, Jeff said, I don't really care about the one seed all that much. We don't want to overextend. I think it matters a ton, you know, having a game seven at home, having the first two games of a Spurs Thunder series in the Western conference at home should matter to OKC. So I don't think we see really much of a pullback on the Thunder Thunder side of things. I would give this a three out of five, almost closer to a three and a half. All right, let's look at the other side of that matchup. We we dabbled in Luca Duchy's three point props Pat last week. We're going to go back at it again. Luca Duchy's over four and a half made threes at plus 112. Right that prop. Yeah, Lucas just getting kind of his own treatment right now at the books with these with these player props. Four and a half made threes. I mean, we're not even seeing this for the Charlotte Hornets, Jeff, who are just jacking up threes every single night. But plus money at plus 112. I'm going to give this a two out of five and I'll explain why. So it looked at scored 30 plus in 13 straight games.

15:14He's averaging just a shade under 40 points per game in that span to go with eight rebounds and seven assists, by the way, over two steals per game on 49, 40, 82 shooting splits. I mean, this is an unbelievable run that we're seeing from from Luca Duchy. I think probably the closest thing would have been James Hardin during his peak days with the Houston Rockets. Now, during this run, he's averaging 5.4 made threes per game on almost 14 attempts per game. He's gone over this number in seven of his last 13. So maybe not as frequently as you'd expect. You know, there are a couple like seven eight nine three pointer games mixed in there that kind of kind of juice that average a little bit. OKC does rank 27th in the NBA in threes allowed over the last 10 games over 41 attempts. So they're OK with the opponent taking those. But Luca only took seven threes in the first matchup of the season. That was without LeBron James. OKC in theory does have the defenders. I think to make like life difficult on Luca Duchy. So I don't hate this plus money much like the SGA prop. We talked about obviously Luca is capable of going over this

16:14against any opponent. But if I'm going to play Luca tonight, Jeff, I'm just going to the over 31 and a half points rather than targeting the threes specifically. Yeah, that makes a whole lot of sense. Let's talk about one more NBA game spurs. They were at gold state last night. Now they're playing the Clippers in L.A. Victor Wembaanyama over 36 and a half points and rebounds minus 116. Nick, rate that prop. All right, so I'm going to give this a four out of five. Well, like you said, fives are tough to get. One's are tough to get in this game. But I don't even give out that many fours. So we'll go four out of five. Now the Clippers and the spurs have played twice in the last month. Both of those games were close, both wins by the San Antonio Spurs. But both of those games were decided by only four points. We have a narrow spread tonight, second night of a back-to-back for San Antonio. So there is some some reason to believe that the Clippers should be able to keep this game close. You look at Wembaany's output in those first two games, 21 points, 13 rebounds. That's an under 27 and 10 in the second matchup barely over.

17:15Clippers have given him some trouble. You know, 21 and 13 counts as a down game for Victor Wembaanyama these days. But I think this is going to be a very competitive game. You know, Clippers have been playing at a top five, top six level over the last month. So I think this could be a spot where we see 35, 36 minutes out of Victor Wembaanyama. He's coming into this game, coming off of two of his best games of the season, 41 and 18, 41 and 16. It's tough to ignore that. I think this number is low enough that you can you can talk me into it. I mean, spurs like we said, they just keep the pedal to the metal every single night. You know, it's a loosable game for OKC against the LA Lakers. I think the spurs should want to go hard. They're still pushing for that one C. They have the tiebreaker. By the way, over OKC, that's definitely going to matter over the next week and a half. So I'll go over. I'll give this a four on the 36 and a half points plus sports. All right, very good. We found one we can play there. I like it. Baseball season is here. And Vison Pro just made it a whole lot more profitable with MLB AI player prop projections powered by Opta AI.

18:15We're giving you data driven projections for both hitters and pitchers compared directly to draft King's line. So you know exactly where the value is. And every day we break it all down into top value plays and strong plays. So you don't have to do the heavy lifting. Get access now with a Vison Pro subscription at Vison.com slash MLB props. Speaking of MLB props, Jeff Erickson, we continue our game of rate that props here on prop points. Looking at a modest major league baseball slate. Just three games coming our way today. We already have a postponement between the blue jays and the white socks. So looking at Twins Royals, Bobby Whits and Cole Regans will be the focus year. Cole Regans, of course, on the mound going up against Taj Bradley. Bobby with junior over 0.5 RBI. So just to record an RBI here at plus 113 right that prop. So originally I had this as a two. I didn't like it because Bobby with hasn't had an extra base hit all season long. All season. It's like five games, but hasn't had an extra base hit yet.

19:17Uh, has to RBI. However, the conditions today are for a high scoring game. It's a nine and a half is the over now heavy wind blowing out in this game. Taj Bradley is a decent starting pitcher, but I don't trust the twins bullpen. Played a high scoring game last night between these two teams. That's what kind of pushed me back into making this a three. I'm not, I don't love the player batting second piling on a ton of RBI, especially because I don't trust the bottom part of the Royals batting order. But I think this is actually good enough. It's a three. I mean, most of these, if you think about it, should be a three. Uh, because these are should be, you know, if they were that obvious, we'd probably be getting a different payout odds. We'd probably wouldn't be getting that prop. And that's why it's hard to find a four let alone a five. Coleragans over seven and a half k's. That's the, that's the line over at draft Kings plus 104 on that Jeff rate that prop. Okay, so I'm going to give it a four. I just even though I said everything is a three, but this one is a four for me.

20:17I like that the Coleragans strike out ability. I know his first start was pretty rough against the braves, but this is a different opponent at home against the twins. I do worry about the long ball a little bit there, especially with that wind blowing out, but I think the braves lineup was much more equipped to hurt regans than the twins lineup is let alone. The fact that this is the second start should work a little bit deeper into the game. We like his strike out ability. Is a reason why it's such a high prop to begin with there. We're still getting plus odds on it though. We're going to give it a four. That game starting up a little after 2 p.m. Eastern again, Taj Bradley going up against regans. Royals currently a minus 156 favorite on the money line at draft Kings total. At nine and a half. Let's take a look at Metz Giants coming our way in the later window. Tonight alongside raves Diamondbacks David Peterson, Robbie Ray on the hill. Metz a slight road favorite with a lower total at seven and a half. We're going to focus in on Boba Shett Jeff over one and a half total basis. Plus 127 right that prop.

21:20All right, originally this was also another two. But again, this is I kind of thought this a little bit more through. First of all, the price is pretty high at plus 127. I mean, high in a good way, high payout there if he does make it. But Shett is ice cold right now. Three for 29, one walk, eight strikeouts, zero extra base hits. It's in a tough ballpark and Oracle ballpark. Although it does enhance doubles and triples with the big alleys there, the big outfield. It's just this is a question of do you believe that he's going to turn it around some point in time? Will he do it against a lefty like Robbie Ray? A good strikeout pitcher, but also lefty, righty match up here, which is pretty good for Metz Shett. Last year, he slighted 546 against right handers. Not as good the year before, but they ain't missed a bunch of time in 2024. So it's hard to kind of relate too much on that. But this is really a go against the tide sort of that. Similar to where we saw the line movement going in such a severe direction yesterday in Angels Cubs. It's kind of going counter to that there because it's just like,

22:24okay, at some point the movement is too much. I almost feel like this is this price at plus 127 is a little too much. Relying on Bechette to continue slumping is probably a little bit too much too. So I'm going to give it a three. I think you could do it if you wanted to. I'm definitely not going against it. Let's put it that way. Two, three is at a four. Not bad for our stripper producer, Dr. Cohen. Throwing us a props for Ray Fatt prop. We'll have our own baseball plays. Our own plays in the NBA coming for you later in the show. But we're going to switch things over. We'll be the final four for their friend Tim Welch, former headband at Iona at Providence. You can hear him as an analyst at the SDN on Series 6M. He'll join us next, full 504 preview coming away on Propwoods. Your washing prop points on V7, these sports betting network. Final four coming our way on Saturday. And of course, the national championship game on Monday night. We're going to head out to the progressive guest line.

23:26We've got our guy Tim Welch, former headband at Iona at Providence, currently an analyst. Could catch him on ESPN, Series 6M, NBC Sports Boston. Find him over on Twitter at Tim Welch. We're going to head out to the progressive guest line. We've got our guy Tim Welch, former headband at Iona at Providence, currently an analyst. Over on Twitter at Tim Welch. Five coach appreciate you giving us some of your time. We really enjoyed your visit to the show. Heading into the tournament and looking forward to breaking down what should be an excellent next few days of college hoops with you. I want to get your overall read on this NCA tournament. Because of course, one of the big narratives as we head into the final four is, no, we didn't get four one seeds, but we got two one seeds. We got a two. We got a three. We didn't see the massive upsets in round one and round two. For the most part, it was a lot of blue buds, advancing to the sweet 16 and the elite eight. The narrative is out there that Cinderella is our dead. We may never see another Loyola. We may never see another St. Peter's.

24:26Are we overreacting to the results of this specific tournament? Because look, I think if Sienna had held on and beaten Duke in round one, this conversation is not happening. Right, and Sienna could have very well beat Duke. There's no doubt about it. They would have had a couple more bodies that probably might have at least had a better chance of a Jerry McNamara did a great job with a reduced roster because of injuries and some other situations. But to me, as a former coach, in somebody that just takes value and great play, I think we've had a great tournament. Certainly have all the respect in the world for the IONAs and the St. Peter's and the FDUs. Those things are fun, but they last, they last once, and then you move on. And rarely do we see them get all the way. Although St. Peter's did make the elite eight. But to me, it is what it is right now with the way the game is the workings of the game as far as the portal, the NIL and everything else.

25:27And you're not going to change that. So I think you should just take a lot of value and take enjoyment in just seeing really good basketball. Because that's what we're seeing. We're seeing the best of the best. And the best teams are really good. And they've got a lot of good, really good players and really good coaches. So I would say from that perspective, it's been a great tournament. Coach, speaking of good coaching, looking at that finish of the Yukon Duke game, the poise that the Yukon players had after the steal. First of all, not to foul right away, but also to make not one, but two passes after the steal, not just for some miracle shot, but actually work their way to get the open shot. You can tell that has to have to have to be drilled to be have that sort of poise, right? You know, it's amazing to me. You know, and I haven't heard what Danny said about it if they were actually trying to foul or he instructed his team to foul. I'm sure he wanted to foul at some point. He didn't want them to dribble out the clock, but I was surprised he didn't run at the ball earlier. And you know, if Ken Boozard had made that pass over the top,

26:30then we'd probably be saying, well, what the heck, why didn't Yukon foul? And they gave up a wide open dunk. So, I mean, at the end of these games, there's always crazy stuff that goes on when it's at one possession, one point game, the final 15 seconds of games were such importance. And I think you just let us team ride it. And I think they knew enough to foul. And they probably, if Ken Boozard had held on to the ball, they would have fouled them. But having said that, they made just a miracle play. I mean, to run at the ball, to get to the flexion, and then to make the, not only the great steal, but then the extra pass to the wide open Mullins at the top, but he's wide open from 35 feet. I mean, come on, it's really a miracle shot. And everyone said, well, you know, Evan should have got his hands up in the air, of course, he should have, but you know, you're in an offensive mode and all of a sudden you have to switch to a defensive mode so quickly that it can happen. And we actually lost the tournament and NCAA tournament game like that off a blocked shot,

27:30where our defense was great. And we were out on a, we were 12 seed playing Syracuse. We had a one point lead and they took a shot with like six seconds to go. We blocked it. And the ball went way up in the air and it was a mad scramble for the ball. And it got our defense all out of sorts. And we left somebody wide open at the top at the outside of three point line with a second to go. And because of our defense, we had this switch and transition from defense to defense so quickly, we didn't have nobody who they had. And he got crazy and he made the shot and we lost the game. So you live with those type of things forever that's the bounce of the ball in the tournament. We saw it in the Kentucky Santa Clara game as well. Herb Sendeck was trying to call the time out. They didn't grant it. So the craziness of the tournament lives on. And to me, that's where we get the enjoyment. And you feel bad, I did feel horrible for Duke. I felt great for you, Conn, because that's really a special moment that will live on forever. So coach from a coach's perspective,

28:30as we spin this ahead now to Yukon, Illinois, the early game on Saturday, what are you telling your team after a wild finish like that? You rally back from down 19 points, you win on this all-time miracle shot and you almost feel like you're playing with house money at this point. But how do you refocus the team to go play an opponent like Illinois coming off of a game like that? Well, it's pretty easy. I mean, you're going, you're 80 minutes away from being a national champion and they've got a lot of guys that have national championship pedigree. And the thing about that is that when you have that type of pedigree in the locker room or the maturity level is at the highest. They understand that this is all business. On the final floor can be encapsulating where you just, all the pageantry of it and the people everywhere. Everybody's loving you and the hotel lobbies are filled with your fans and you know, have a good friend who is an associate AD there. I said, you're going out there to raise some NIL money. He goes, there's a lot of happy people

29:30and they're all going to Indy and that's the same for all 14. So you just have to make it a business trip and they've been so good with that throughout their, not only this season, but Rod Danny's career and we saw it in the back-to-back national champions and they'll be focused. They'll be back on the game plan. They understand that Illinois is a totally different team than they beat earlier in the season. They're lineups different and they're playing a lot better. So Yukon's going to have to play well to win but I'm sure they'll be refocused. What's the critical matchup in that game, coach? What, who's going to dictate who wins this game? I think it's a couple of things. First of all, Illinois is playing terrific. Yukon is a really good defensive team but Wagler didn't play very much in the first game. He wasn't even a factor earlier in the season. He's become this lottery pick out of nowhere. He's just unbelievable. Start another unbelievable tournament story. So when you look at him, you've got to make sure you adjust your defense system

30:30because you've got to try to deny him all because he's so good with the ball. His hands he makes such great decisions and makes everybody better out there. So they've got to try to be a little physical with him. He doesn't have the big strong body yet but a physical defender on him. Maybe even a memory will get out of guard him and try to deny him. They've got to make sure that they really stop Illinois from attacking and transition and that means they're going to have to get good shots. You kind of struggle to shoot the ball as of late. They've got to shoot it better. I think to win this game, they got away with it against Duke just because of grit and toughness on the defensive end of the floor. But I think they've got to try, hopefully for them, they've got to try to make up a few more shots from the perimeter. And then the other guy is Terrace Reed Jr. You know, who can Illinois match up with against him? That's very critical because he has played really well in the tournament. And he had the one off game in the second round but over the last month, he has been a huge factor for them. And if he shows up and plays big or Yukon, I think they're going to win the game.

31:31Tim Welles joining us on the progressive guest line here on prop points coach. Let's go to the late game. It could be the game of the year in college tubes. Arizona and Michigan Wolverines currently a one and a half point favorite. If you look at the betting splits over on visa.com almost dead even as far as where the bets where the money are coming in on this game, which is fitting because it's really, really tough to find a defined advantage for for either side. But is there anything we can, you know, when you stack these teams up, is there anything that stands out to you? You know, I look at this as two teams where it's like Michigan is kind of the only team that can match Arizona's physicality Arizona's the only team that can match that on the Michigan side. Like is there a defined edge for you for either team? Well, I think in the edge goes to Arizona in town. I think they have a deeper team. They have a more complete team. They can beat you in a lot of different ways. We saw that in the tournament so far where they don't have to make threes to win. They're not built on threes. They can make them, but they're going to play whatever style you want to play. They can win with and they've got eight really good players.

32:34And I think that when you look at that, that's that consistency brings them to where they are right now. But having said that, they are young. They're very young. And how they handle the stage is really going to be something that you want to take a look at. I mean, four of their top eight players are freshmen. And they're two best players in the tournament are freshmen. So what does that mean? In today's game, it doesn't mean as much over the course of a season. But when you step on that core Saturday night at 855 and the dolls going up in the air and there's 70,000 people there. And you've never been in that in that type of moment. It's going to take a while to adjust and Michigan has some older players. And then obviously they haven't been in the final four, but they've been around the block a lot more than than Arizona's players. So I would say try to gauge how those freshmen are playing. How they react to the moment in the game. So they've been terrific. Burys has been terrific. Pete has been terrific. They're the two best. They're two best players, but how they play an opening 10 minutes. I think will be a key component of who wins this game.

33:38Coach, excellent stuff. As always, man. Really appreciate you making a visit to the show. Enjoy the final four this weekend. All right. Thanks, guys. All is great to be with you. Tim Welch. Everybody joining us on the Progressive Guest Line. Catch us analysis on ESPN on Series XM on NBC Sports this weekend for the final four. Give me an update on the Valero. Give me some plays in the MLB and NBA for tonight when we come back. We want to prop work. You're watching Rob points on V7, the sports betting network. The Masters is almost here. And if you think you know the field better than the average better, it's time to prove it. The V7 high stakes Masters challenge over on splash sports is a $500 entry with $100K guaranteed. Fantasy tears contest built specifically for golf betters.

34:40Here's how it works. You'd have six golfers for the Masters, one from each tier of the field. Your top five scores count for lowest combined score across all four round wins. Your worst golfer gets dropped automatically. The miscuts carry an eight stroke penalty. So roster construction certainly matters. Entry closes April 9 at 8 a.m. So don't wait. That's a week from today. Head over to splash sports dot com slash V. And use the promo code V. Send V. S. I. N. That'll get you a 50% deposit match up to $100. A free $20 quick picks entry as well as a 100% quick picks boost. Just go to splash sports dot com slash V. Sin and use that promo code V. S. I. N. Nickway L. Jeff Erickson back with his prop points on the sports betting network. Not much of a baseball slate today, Jeff, but nonetheless, we will make you. Give us some props for this three gamer that starts at 210 Eastern. So coming up and about one of what's my math here 25 minutes.

35:41We got twins royals touched Bradley going up against cold regans. Royals currently a minus 156 favorite on the money line total sitting at nine. How are you playing twins royals? So I think I'm going to steer a little bit into the the win story here. I'm going to go with the over over nine and a half. I think we had the high scoring game yesterday. The bullpen's really got worked over. Royals put Carlos a step is on the aisle. That's one less guy in their bullpen. The twins bullpen is pretty shaky enough to begin with there. As much as I liked what Taj Bradley did in his first outing out got the heavy strikeouts there. Striking out nine. He did walk three. And I do worry about him putting guys on base there a little bit. So I think I'm going to lean towards the over on this one here. We talked a little bit about Bobby Witt in the first segment as well on the RBI prop. I'm going to I'm going to also think I'm also going to try to dig in a little bit there on just the the the the the the mini past Quentino homerun props there a little bit there.

36:42Pulling that up just as we're talking here just I didn't see I didn't see one earlier a good line on this one here. But if you look at past Quentino now you can get a plus 370 at Vanduil for Dinger Thursday. We'll do a real thing or Friday segment tomorrow though. Got the Braves and the Dbacks in the late window tonight 940 PM Eastern start Atlanta. A slight favorite on the road Ronaldo Lopez going against Ryan Nelson looking at a case prop here. Yeah I am Ryan Nelson had a pretty rough outing his first time around expectations are actually kind of low. I surprised to see the K pop prop all the way down to four and a half. I think he bounces back second start at home. The bullpen's well rested to so that that's actually I think we'll give him a little opportunity to pitch with some confidence on this one here. It's minus 108 over at Caesars. I'm going to go with Nelson over four and a half strikeouts and this one against the Braves. Lopez I don't I want to see it again before I start betting on Lopez the velocity was up last time out and I did like that.

37:46But I want to see it again one more time see if he can maintain it from start to start. The third and final game on the slate tonight. Metz Giants 945 PM Eastern starts metz a slight road favorite totals down at seven and a half. We got David Peterson against Robbie Ray both of these teams Jeff desperately in need of a win. I don't think either team feeling great a weekend. Yeah that in both offices are really struggling in particular. The Giants had a nice a game against Hermann Marquez. This isn't it. You know if you look at their outing their their series are opening series against the Yankees that they really struggled a weren't even averaging over run per game. I think that trend kind of continues tonight. I like the under 75 seven and a half runs over at that rivers you can get it minus 108. The metz only scored one run in that game last against St. Louis had to travel. Sometimes the traveling kind of you know Rick wakes people up a little bit there and you. It's weird sometimes the lack of rest doesn't hurt you as much as you would think it might be in that first game.

38:49But still I think then this one there I'm going to bet with the trend go under seven and a half runs. Nick we got a really busy NBA slate tonight. I know you got a lot of picks going on for this late. We'll start off with sons and Hornets this game at seven PM Eastern time. What do you like in this game? I'm going to start out to a five and a half point favorite now at home. Both teams last played on Tuesday. Sons ended up losing to Orlando. We got that game totally wrong. I just I can't I can't get anything right with the Orlando magic who of course come out and get crushed again last night. One thing to monitor here Jeff is much like the last time we talked about the Hornets when they were playing the nets on Tuesday. They're going up against another team that is really good at limiting opponent threes now the Hornets lead the NBA in three point attempts. Two in the NBA in limiting three point attempts behind only the Brooklyn net. So similar set up to that nets game. Charlotte still got 39 attempts up, which is below their average, but you know, still a high mile creeping up close to 40 only three for for concatenable three attempts.

39:50That is an extremely low number for him. It was more of a lamellable Brandon Miller miles bridges type of spot. So we are getting a rare opportunity to take the two and a half threes for concatenable. He's pretty much been at a standard three and a half for most of the last couple of months. I'm going to stay away from that, but I will go under 25 and a half points rebounds assists for concatenable is in the midst of a little bit of a downturn, even as he's extending his lead in the odds for rookie of the year. This has been kind of one of the worst five or six game stretches for him of the season still playing very well. You set the bar really, really high this season. But I think that could continue and what could be a lower scoring game tonight against the Sunstein. Yeah, I think so too. I'm interested in that and seeing this when they're only talking a little bit more about this and best bets a little bit later on. Let's talk a little bit of timber walls and pistons. Can Detroit keep playing with this well without Kate? Look, it's been incredible what they've been able to do. I think once you got the Kate news, you know, you had this, this kind of sinking feeling that man, what a great season. This has been for the Detroit pistons. Is it all going to go up and smoke and it is worth noting by the way that earlier this morning we got an update that Kate Cunningham will be reevaluated in a week.

40:58So there's a chance. Maybe he could come back and play one or two games at the end of the regular season and try to get ramped up for the playoffs, but obviously Detroit will not be in the play. And so they will have another week before they start post season action. Either way, they will not have Kate tonight. It's a tough one to bet into right now because Anthony Edwards is considered questionable. He's missed some games over the last couple of weeks, but like you said, I mean, Detroit, even without Kate Cunningham has been a really, really tough out. It kind of looked like the same team to be honest, me, Dennis Jenkins has been one of the finds of the year. Nobody knew who Dennis Jenkins was coming into the season. He's turned into really, really nice insurance policy for Kate Cunningham. One thing I would look at here in the prop market is Jalen Durin over 11 and a half boards at minus 114 when for 13 rebounds and just 29 minutes in the previous matchup against the Minnesota timber wolves and, you know, Minnesota generally a good rebounding team. But if you look at the last 10 games, bottom 10 in the NBA in terms of rebounds allowed the total rebound percentage just started to slip for Minnesota. So that's one spot I would look in terms of a prop.

41:59All right, our highlighted game of the night, Lakers at Thunder. This one, Thunder as I got an eight and a half point favorite on this one here. We talked about Luca a little bit. We talked a little bit about SGA and rate that prop. What do you like else in this game? Yeah, so I like the look over 31 and a half points. That's that's how I'm playing him tonight. We talked about, you know, SGA with the, you know, the same points prop. I'm never going to tell you not to bet the over on either of those guys. I would look at the over one and a half steals for SGA as well. If you're looking for kind of a value prop at plus 127 at draft kings for as great as the Lakers have played for as great as Lucas Ben, they are still a high turnover team. It turns it over a ton. Lebron turns it over a ton. They're bottom 10 in the NBA over the last 10 games in turnovers and in opponent steals. So I think that's one spot where if you want kind of a non traditional prop on SGA, take a look at the over one and a half steals. Before we get the best bets quickly, Nick, I noticed you pointed out that the line and spurs clippers is pretty interesting, given how well the spurs have been playing.

43:03First just a three and a half point favorite on the road. Now there is a rest advantage for the clippers. It's a second night of a back to back for San Antonio, but as usual, you know, spurs took care of business with ease last night against Golden State. So it didn't really have to overextend themselves. They played plenty of back to backs during this 30 game run where they've been the best team in the NBA. And it hasn't really seemed to matter. But look, like we talked about earlier in the show, the clippers have played them close twice within the last month. So I think the expectation is that we do get a closer game here. The line at three and a half is interesting. I would lean spurs and going back to that women, Yama prop that we discussed over 36 and a half points plus boards, totally comfortable playing that as well. All right. Time for our best bets. Let's get to our best bets. The night is going to be real quick. Go ahead. Alright, what do we got? No, you tell me. So the road or smart money tool really loves the over in the suns and hornets at two 24 and a half and a fan duel. I'm going to go with it.

44:05Okay, there we go. I've been saving this prop the whole show Jeff Jared Allen over 13 and a half points, calves on the road at the Warriors tonight, second night of a back to back for Golden State. They're down a bunch of their regulars. This Warriors team bottom 10 in the NBA and points in the paint allowed Allen has sailed over this number in each of his last two games since coming back from injury played only 18 and 19 minutes. In those two games, which were blowouts. I think this isn't a great spot for Jared Allen, the chemistry that he's already developed with James Harden completely changing that cab's offense. So give me over 13 and a half points for Jared Allen. That's going to wrap the Thursday edition of prop points will be back with you tomorrow. Our very Colby Dan is stopping by the show to help us preview the final four money moves. JVT, that'd be a benefit coming your way next. You