Regime change_ The real test of Trumps Iran strategy Fareeds Take

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That's k-a-c-h-a-v-a.com code news. Here's my take. My first reaction to news of the death of

Ayatollah Khameini was relief. Relief for the 92 million Iranians who are freed from the grip

of an 86-year-old tyrant, a man who over nearly four decades ran his country into poverty at home

and isolation abroad. Khameini was the hardest of the hardliners, who defined Iran's unyielding

opposition, not only to America and the West and Israel, but also to freedom for his own people.

He shaped the modern Islamic Republic into the strange hybrid regime that it is, run by clerics,

military officers, and bureaucrats, all repressive, dysfunctional, and corrupt to the core.

No one should mourn his passing. But when we step back and ask, where does this go next?

Things look murky. President Trump has chosen to go to war with a country that did not pose an

imminent threat to the United States. His claims to the contrary are belied by his own words.

After the United States bombed Iran last June, the president loudly and repeatedly declared

that he had obliterated Iran's nuclear program. Yet eight months later, he asked us to believe that

this obliterated program posed such an urgent threat to the United States that Trump had to act

without seeking authorization from the United States Congress. In his brief speech announcing

the attack, President Trump revealed the true purpose of the military action, regime change.

He explicitly called on the Iranian people to overthrow their government.

In doing so, he has defined the purpose of this war and the measure by which it will be judged

a success or failure. Historically, regime change from the air has rarely taken place.

I cannot think of a single case in which a government fell without military forces on the ground

actually doing the toppling. And more broadly, the record of American sponsored regime change

in the Middle East is not a happy one, from Afghanistan to Iraq to Libya. There's always the

possibility that this time will be different, that Iranians are more educated and desperate for

freedom, but it is likely to be a long and complex struggle. Fiers of a broader regional war are

likely unfounded, because Iran has already acted in self-defeating ways that are uniting the

region against it. Rather than drive a wedge between the United States and the Gulf states,

which had expressed neutrality in this conflict, Iran went after the Gulf states in attacks that

caused little military damage, but incensed those countries. Above all, is the basic reality.

Iran is very weak. Iran's military battered dozens of its leaders killed in airstrikes.

Its allies like Hezbollah and Hamas are also in tatters. Meanwhile, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the

UAE are bristling with military might. Yet none of this will easily translate into success on the

terms that Trump has implied. Regime change and a substantially better government for the long

suffering Iranian people. The most likely outcome is that a badly bruised government stays in power

with new faces. Perhaps the military becomes more powerful and the Mullahs less so. Perhaps Iran

comes back to the table with even more concessions on the nuclear issue. President Trump seems

already to have recognized the complexity of the regime change strategy and has floated the idea

that one of his off-ramps might be to deal with new leaders of the same regime. But once you call

for the overthrow of a government, that becomes the definition of success or failure.

There is also the legacy of the way that Trump went to war. The United States has a messy and far

from perfect record of using force abroad, but in modern times it has usually done so by first

defining the broad principles at stake, working with international law and organizations,

building a broad coalition of allies, and consulting with Congress and the American people. None of

this was done in Operation Epic Fury, an app name. This was a decision-making process that was

fast and furious as much about a dramatic show of strength as anything else. As other countries

look around and think about what kind of world they are living in, what rules they can rely on.

What institutions they looked to for stability. They're confronted by the reality that the world's

leading nation, the creator of the international rules-based system, has said loudly and clearly

might makes right. It's a new rule and one that will gladden the hearts of Xi Jinping and Vladimir

Putin. In this Justin, US Central Command says three US service members were killed in action

as part of Operation Epic Fury and five more were seriously wounded. Joining me now is retired

Admiral James Stavridas, the former NATO Supreme Allied Commander and a vice-chair at the Carlyle Group.

Admiral, welcome and tell us first what has surprised you so far about the military side of things

as you look at where we stand now, day two, day three.

I'm happy to tell you what surprised me and I will, but first, whatever your political persuasion,

wherever you are on the political spectrum or however you feel about this set of events,

please take a moment and hold those service men and women in your thoughts, your prayers,

raise a glass to them if that is your tradition. That is 50,000 US sailors,

airmen, Marines, Army, commanded by the way by an admiral, Admiral Brad Cooper of US Central

Command and we're just learning of the deaths of three and injuries. Sadly, I think they'll be

more to come. Friedwood has surprised me and I should get over being surprised by this, but

but is the ruthless lethality particularly of the Israelis who are able in their side of the

strike to take out the equivalent of President Trump, General Dan Cain, Secretary P. Tegseth.

I mean, this really is a decapitation, so that has been a surprise to get in that easily

and take out that layer of leadership. Now, however, the hard part starts.

You know, you point out that this lethality and precision is unusual. I was talking to the

historian Timothy Neftali who pointed out the US in the past had tried assassinations

famously of people like Fidel Castro and had always botched them. This is a new feature on

the international stage and I suspect that while the United States and Israel and the forefront

you know, this might become something I don't want to say common practice, but the other countries

will have precision targeting and drones and I wonder whether this opens up a kind of can of worms

in which countries are going to be targeting senior leadership. Is that something you worry about?

We should worry about it. However, it's always been a feature of war

what has prevented more of that kind of decapitation taking out the leader

is simply the lack of intelligence command and control, but I can remind you in World War II,

the United States shot down the aircraft that was carrying the Commander-in-Chief of the

Japanese Armed Forces, for example. We have had this capability in the past. One point I'll

make here for read and we talked about what are the effects of air power and use of precision.

I commanded the NATO war in Libya in 2011. We had plenty of opportunities to take out Gaddafi. We

chose not to in those circumstances. However, this is a new feature of war precision AI unmanned

or here to stay. They'll be used against every level of military activity.

What do you suspect Jim is going to be the next wave of targets? Because they seem to have

gone in a fairly dramatic way, senior leadership, but also military sites, ballistic missile

sites. So what do you think the next waves will be about?

I think, and you know the admiral is going to say this, I think we'll go against the maritime

capability of Iran, which is not insignificant. And by knocking that out preemptively while it

hopefully sits in port, we can take out their mine layers. We can take out their small combatants.

We can take out their diesel submarines. This reduces risk to our own naval forces,

offshore, but more importantly, perhaps it allows us to prevent the full closure of the

straight-of-war moose. Effectively, that's happened because commercial shipping is making a decision

not to go through it. Going after naval targets would be smart. And then a second level of targeting,

I think, could be applied against mid-tier revolutionary guard. Not so much the conventional

military, because there is your hope of finding partners for protesters, rebels on the ground.

James Stavridis, always a pleasure to talk to you, and we will be following this. We'll probably be

back to you for more in the weeks to come. President Barack Obama. Virginia, we are counting on you.

Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to raid the next election and wield unchecked

power for two more years, but you can stop them by voting yes by April 21st.

Help put our elections back on a level playing field and let voters decide not politicians.

Vote yes by April 21st. Paid for by Virginians for fair elections.

Craving the coffee flavor you love, but without the caffeine,

Kachava's got you covered with their newest coffee flavor. This all-in-one nutrition shake

delivers bold, authentic flavor, crafted from premium decaffeinated Brazilian beans.

With 25 grams of protein, 6 grams of fiber, greens, and so much more.

Treat yourself to the flavor and nutrition your body craves.

Go to Kachava.com and use code news. New customers get 15% off their first order.

That's K-A-C-H-A-V-A.com code news.