Reporter Roundtable: What's Carney's next move in the Canada-U.S. trade war?

0:00A colossal monster, a city and ruins no way out, except inside of the all electric Toyota CHR. John Show stars in, escape. Test drive Toyota's new all-electric family today. Toyota, let's go places. This is a CBC podcast. Prime Minister Mark Carnie says Canada is looking closely at the latest US retaliation and the impact it will have on Canadian industries. The biggest impact we can have here in Canada is to focus on what we can control, building at home, diversifying and broad and delivering for Canadians. What should Canada's next move be? A reporter roundtable is back from summer break, which means a new pod for you every Friday afternoon. Robert Feif is a former Ottawa bureau chief for the Globe and Mail.

1:01Mayor Rapson is the deputy parliamentary bureau chief at the Canadian press. And Joe Venni Bethevance is the parliamentary bureau chief for La Press. It is sure nice to see you all. If I can start with you, we've seen the escalation to the escalation, the retaliation to the retaliation. After listening to the Prime Minister today, do you get the sense that we'll see any more or we kind of everybody taking a step back here? I did not get the sense from him that we will see an immediate escalation. He did seem to be suggesting that there will be a response but not necessarily retaliation, maybe support for those new sectors that are now being affected by tariffs. It's probably worth noting that not only did they ban some of those items, mostly alcohol, motorcycles, a couple of dairy products and then change ad tariffs to some that didn't have them. They also took it off some products after a lot of pressure from their domestic state leaders etc. I think toilet paper, road salt, cement or some of the ones that no longer are being tariffed. It's kind of a little bit of a wash in that in the overall sense.

2:03So I think the sense I got from the Prime Minister in his response today was that they don't seem keen to escalate and retaliate further but there might be additional supports directed and targeted at the industries that weren't being touched before. Yeah, Bob, the way in which they added X number of new tariffs but they removed it. It's moved X number of old tariffs and the math is all a little bit janky but it's basically a wash. Is it too much at this point for Canadians to read into the U.S. response as their own bit of de-escalation here? I think you're, look, first of all, Mark Carney is living in the head of President Donald Trump as we all know. You only have to watch when he's on the weekend, he's not busy, he's putting all kinds of names and crazy stuff on social media on his social media website. But look, I think he's under a lot of pressure, I think, from Congress and as well from the

3:05business community not to make this into a full-footed war because the two economies are so integratively involved. And I think the Prime Minister, to me, is point, I don't think he wants to escalate this. He does not like tariffs and he's said from the beginning that they tend to hurt Canadians as much as they do Americans so he's tried to be very targeted in the kind of a tariff that he has imposed. But we're still in a standoff. We are still in a lot of industries are really hurting. The auto industry, the aluminum, the steel industry, our lumber industry, a lot of these smaller business that are affected by that are all hurting. And there does not seem to be, at least initially, a way out of this. Although I was somewhat a bit optimistic yesterday when Dominic LeBlanc, our candidate U.S. trade minister, said he had been talking to Jameson Greer and the Prime Minister today

4:09said he'd been talking to Donald Trump, maybe not about trade stuff, but at least they're talking. Somehow they've got to get away from, they're both cars arriving at each other, they've got to figure out a way to climb out of this and without any of them looking like they've given up. So it's a tough situation, but I think we're going down the road in a month or two months time where we might be able to get some kind of an agreement. JD, are we going to have to wait for Mark Andrebe Blanchard's diaries to be published in 50 years, like we did with Jim Coots and get a sense of like on the day, the meme of Trump hitting him with a hockey stick was the day that, you know, this was what he texted to the president. Like it is remarkable to me that there is communication between Prime Minister Karney and Donald Trump. In the midst of all this, there's also communication as Bob just said between LeBlanc and Greer. Are we ever going to really get a sense of what those communications look like? Because boy, they'd be fascinating.

5:10I think your calendar of 50 years is the right one. I don't think we're going to hear about that soon enough, unless maybe we get some people to accept to write them more quickly than we thought. But I agree with my colleagues. I think Canada will stay put for now because if we do escalate, I think we run the risk of Mr. Trump pulling one other rabbit out of his head, which is, would be the six months notice to kill Kuzma. And that would be the worst case in ourific Canada. We don't want that now or ever, even though Mr. Trump negotiated a deal and never respected his own signature by putting tariffs in Canada. So my expectation is that we will stay put for now so that we don't put more oil in the fire, given that what we are seeing on the calendar right now is the midterm elections. And if it does change his hands in terms of Democrats taking over the House of Representatives or even the Senate, that would vote houses. That would change the dynamics in Washington and may limit the President's ability to impose

6:12more tariffs in Canada. And that I think is the kind of safest way, if I may say, in the coming months for Canada. May I do you think a change in Congress? Like let's say the Democrats win both the House and the Senate and they come in and they've been hitting the President with tariffs and the trade war is a bad idea from the get-go. Do we think Democrats are actually going to make him change policies? Like they haven't exactly been a great friend to trade policy with Canadians in the past, have they? They haven't and I don't necessarily know that they would back off on all tariffs. I also don't know that the President would necessarily listen to Congress because he's showing habits and tendencies to do what he wants regardless of what the rules are, whether you have a trade agreement or whether Congress would be able to exert that kind of power to do anything. I think what you're seeing though is you're starting to see really people lining up in the United States ahead of the midterms on Canada side or not. It's kind of a unique position that we're in.

7:13The Canada is not necessarily on the ballot, but we are certainly on the discussion as we're going to heading towards midterms, which is not normal for Canada to be part of those conversations. And the Democrats are seeing an increased support and affection for Canada amongst their supporters because they're becoming very unpopular amongst even Republicans. The Republican voters aren't loving necessarily the tariffs. They're being impacted by them, hurt by themselves, but they're still hearing and listening to the rhetoric coming out of the White House, but that's just not true of necessarily independence or Democrats. And that's what you're seeing heading into the midterms. So the Democrats are making certain types of promises that they would remove them. And I think you would see a lot more of them removed and maybe go back to NAFTA. And just NAFTA in its own or the CUSMA, I guess, as we call it now, isn't necessarily tear-free either. So it wouldn't be an immediate solution or immediate relief for Canada, that's for sure. Okay, I want everybody to take a listen to this and get your reaction.

8:15CBC spoke to the U.S. Ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra. As you're arriving in Canada, Newfoundland, of course, Newfoundland Labrador for the town's 9-11 commemoration service. Take a listen to what he said. When he asked if he recognizes these growing tensions between Canada and the U.S. Well, yeah, sure. I mean, we reckon, you know, the tension is, I just spent some time back in the States. The tension is higher here than what it is in the States. You get met at the airport by a couple of cameras and a microphone saying, hey, what's going on and the tension and all that? You know, they're not asking about, you're not getting the same questions in the U.S. I mean, I've been fascinated by this guy's approach to his job here at Bob. I mean, on the one hand, he's just being Pete Hoekstra, but on the other hand, does this fit in with the deescalation from the American side with, you know, the two sides seem to be talking? He's had way more inflammatory responses than that. Well, look, I mean, all in the weekend, he was the one who was reposting all of Trump's

9:21crazy stuff, including the, you know, the president beating up the prime minister with a hockey stick. You know, I mean, look, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, extra, sorry, Hawks, doesn't have a lot of influence in this country. I don't think he meets very much with, uh, uh, cabinet ministers. Certainly, if you look at his, uh, July 4th, uh, uh, uh, bash at, at the U.S. residents, there were very few, uh, politicians who showed up, except for, uh, a few conservative MPs and rebel news. Um, he's, this is, this is not a guy, uh, who he's very popular in this country. Uh, having said that in his defense, he's simply, you know, he's the Donald Trump guy, and he's reflecting everything that Donald Donald Trump put him in there, and he's doing what Donald Trump wants him to do. Yeah. Right, JD? Like, it would be weird if the U.S. ambassador to Canada was in Ottawa saying, oh, boy,

10:23I, I think these decisions from the, the, the, from Washington are terrible. This doesn't, this doesn't work for anybody. Of course, he's going to reflect what the U.S. president wants. It's just, it's the glee that he seems to take from it that I think gets under people's skin. Yeah. I mean, we have some, um, ambassadors, some, some countries with, which we don't get along, and they don't, uh, use their mic, uh, megaphone to, uh, amplify messages from those countries. So, uh, there's an art to do be a diplomat. And I don't think Mr. Oxtra knows how to be a diplomat in the traditional sense. So that's why we have to deal with that. And he's supposed to participate tomorrow in the ceremony for marking the 25th anniversary of the 9-11 and the kind of welcoming that Canadians gave to Americans in Gander. I looking forward to the kind of reception he's going to get there from people in New Finland, Labrador, uh, is it going to be a nice welcome? I wouldn't put five dollars on that one. Uh, if he gets booed, well, don't be surprised, Peter. Well, so let, can we just do a quick show, Hans?

11:24Do we think he gets booed at this tomorrow? What, all three of you really quick? JD, do you think you, I don't, I don't think so only because of the kind of ceremony that it is. I think that the people that will be attending that ceremony are going to be focused on the, the actual day and what it means and not focused on, on him and sort of ruining the day for those for whom it has a lot of meaning. Uh, you will depend what kind of message is delivering tomorrow. If he's delivering the kind of a Trump message or so, I don't think it's going to be welcome. But if he sticks to, you know, a script that is, you know, a solemn and all that, I think he, he'll go by without a booze. Well, listen, I think what we should watch tomorrow is former Prime Minister Jean Cretchen. He's going to be in Gander tomorrow and people around him say, watch out because Cretchen's going to have some choice words to say to the Americans. So I, I'm be tuned for that. He won't get booed. I think he's going to get clapped. Yeah. Yeah. Cretchen isn't really known for his restraint.

12:24Certainly not on this file. A colossal monster tearing through the streets, a city in ruins, nowhere to hide until he finds a way out behind the wheel of the all-electric Toyota CHR instant torque, get away handling and a measurable well factor. John Cho stars in escape. Experience the thrill. Test drive Toyota's new all-electric family at your local dealer. Toyota, let's go places. Earn your Farm D in as little as 33 months with West Coast University's hybrid program no bachelor's degree required. Religable transfer credits may be accepted. West Coast University, as real as it gets, visit westcoastuniversity.edu. WCU cannot guarantee employment. Mia, if I can quickly go to you on the USTR, Jameson Greer was on the FTPOD cast earlier today. And his whole notion that, you know, he says, I don't know why they're calling it a trade war.

13:25He said that, you know, that we're overstating all of this. How do you square? Because you listen to Jameson Greer. And a lot of what he says, I even find myself not in a long being. Yeah, that's fairly reasonable. But you compare it to what his boss is saying, what is colleague Lutnik or what is colleague Scott Besson are saying. And that's the stuff that gets Canadian sew-up set. There's no doubt in my mind. That's why he's the guy who's at the front of this file publicly. What was your takeaway from Greer's interview with the FTP? And Greer is in a difficult position because he's trying to be the one at the table negotiating the sort of nitty-gritty details and actually being the one to present the plan and then having to sell the plan. He's not necessarily the one sort of trying to stir the pod as much as you might see from Howard Lutnik or of course the president himself. But Greer himself has said some things that, you know, blaming Canada for this in the first place. I mean, Canada did its start. All of this. Canada didn't want any of these tariffs when Trump took office.

14:27All of this started after from things the Americans applied. And so I think a lot of Canadians are listening to him blaming Canada and saying that, you know, it's Canada. They wouldn't tolerate any retaliation from Canada. Canadians are kind of like, well, we didn't want this in the first place. So, you know, it's kind of over to you. And I think that's kind of the standoff that we're seeing both at the government level and also amongst Canadians and Americans themselves. The other thing that I think is worth noting and I think you heard it a little bit from the ambassador in his comment that, you know, he's not getting greeted at airports in the United States and being asked about the tension in this relationship because Canada and Canadians right now in a large part are very consumed by this issue. It is a huge issue for Canada. Americans really are not that consumed by it. They're hearing about it. It is percolating. It is absolutely like I said earlier. It's starting to play a role a little bit in the midterm elections. But it is not consuming that country or in that country's news in the same way. The retaliatory tariffs or the tariffs that were put in place in August barely made news in the United States for several days.

15:28So there is a difference in how the two countries are perceiving it. And I think you're seeing that play out in some of the language coming from James and Greer as well. I think you're entirely right. And I'll notice I've done a ton of American media just in the last week and it feels like they've turned their eye to this and like, wait a second, what's going on? But they're also one of the things I keep getting asked about is the investment summit, right? So the world's biggest investors are coming here to Toronto for the Prime Minister's Canada Investment Summit. That starts on Monday into Tuesday, according to the booklet shared with attendees. Those investors are going to have the opportunity to put their money behind. It's like 167 Canadian projects. They've ended at eight broad categories. There's a floating LNG terminal on BC's coast, a high speed rail link between Edmonton and Calgary, Pipeline from Alberta, the Pacific Ocean. There's an awful lot on the agenda. I wonder what, and Bob will start with you. What is your sense of the opportunity? And the question I keep trying to ask people is what does success look like? Do they need a specific thing signed coming out of this to say that this was a success?

16:33Or can they get away with saying we've agreed to talk about these projects moving forward? Well, I don't think you're going to get anything signed on the dotted line. This is a selling summit. But it's a really, really, really important investment conference because it was even set up yesterday when the natural resources, Mr. Tim Hodgson said, look, we've got all these resources. We've got to be growing up. We can't be living in this world where we think our resources should stay in the ground. And that's a music to the ears of investors who want to invest in Canada because we're a stable country. We have a rule of law. We have a democracy. It's not like the Middle East where a dictator can be overthrown very easily. And it's a safe place to put their money. But the problem with the international investors for the last decade is so is that you can put money into the Northern pipeline and $6 billion in the government cancels it.

17:39And investment, oil companies and big companies are not going to invest in Canada if they feel that politics is going to get in the road of this. And the big message that the Prime Minister has been sending much more significantly than trying to deal with Donald Trump is to say that Canada truly is open for business. If you put money into this country, you'll make money, but we won't interfere with the private sector investment. And that's a big deal. And I think we're going to see a lot of positive coming out of that summit next week. JD, I've been going through the pitch book that we finally got today. And I mean, it's a fascinating list. What are you looking for? And once we get people in the room on Tuesday, though? Well, it's probably phase one of a plan. I think that we'll see the combination maybe probably with the federal budget, with probably tax reforms for businesses to make it more attractive. The Prime Minister says often, my Trashine, what does that mean? It's to control your destiny.

18:40Well, this is a concrete example of what we can control. Attract people, attract investment, open the doors for businesses, as Bob mentioned, that Canada is open for business for real. That when you put money in Canada, it brings dividends. It's not lost in bureaucracy. And so it's going to be a clear signal that he wants to send not only to the world, but also to Washington. And it probably will shut up, I think Scott Besson, who is trading Canada like a little place, a little dog that is yapping at the big stand. No, well, I'm sorry, but if you attract investment of the nature that the Prime Minister wants to attract 500 billion, this is not something to be literally, literally, if I may say. So first phase one, I would say, and it's the concrete realization that we are matricinous masters and we can control our own destiny. Mayor, what are you watching for? I'm looking to see who comes. I'm looking to see how many people and how many investors are sort of at the table and talking at this conference and how many are, if they are talking about any specific investments.

19:42I think this conference, when it was first envisioned earlier this year, we certainly had tariffs at that point, but the current environment of this trade war has escalated to a point. I'm wondering if that will have any impact, will keep make people a little bit more nervous. You've seen some investors, particularly in Japan, saying they're investing in Canada because it's sort of a market into the United States, which of course is sort of where they would like to be selling. So I'm interested to see who's coming and looking at that list, it's also interesting to see a lot of those projects seem to be designed or picked with Karni's desire to expand trade beyond the United States. So they're major projects, airports, ports, etc. at our product elsewhere and away from the United States. So that is also something I'm looking for. One of the things, I mean, I'm going to pull a Katie Simpson here instead of being the host. I'm going to be my own panelist. One of the things I find really fascinating about this is that in the room, I was talking to Susan Holt, premier New Brunswick earlier, and she was talking about how in the room, it will be her and one other person pitching the New Brunswick projects, and it'll be the

20:44same. All the premieres, it won't be the businesses that are actually in the pitch document. It'll be the government representatives going into talk to them, and I wonder how that's going to play out. Now, the CEOs that are in there trying to sign these deals are not the point person on any of those particular projects either. But I think that, the construct of this, I think, is going to be one of the most interesting things to watch. So that's my point. It's like part-time panelists. To you all, I thank you reporter, round table, Robert Vife, me, Arabson, and Joe Dinnie Felimons. Thanks guys, appreciate it. Thank you, Peter. Thank you. Thank you, Peter. That's it for today. If you like this episode, please follow the pod and catch our next live show on CBC News Network. We're on weekdays at 5 p.m. Eastern Time. I'm Peter Armstrong. Thanks for listening.

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