Robert Friedland on the World's Monumental Shortage of Copper

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1:00Put ChachyPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at chachyPT.com by selecting Work Mode, available on Plus and Pro Plans. This is Robert Smith from Business History. If you're listening to this, there's a good chance you're a small business owner. And like every small business owner, you started with a dream to do what you love and watch it grow. What you probably didn't dream about, keeping up with cyber threats. That's where MasterCard can help with access to tools that help identify cyber threats to better protect your business. Building a dream business, priceless. For cybersecurity in a changing world, there's MasterCard. Learn more at mastercard.com slash small business. Hello, OddLod's listeners. I'm Joe Wazenthal. And I'm Tracy Alloway. We're the hosts of the OddLod podcast and we've got something exciting for you. That's right. So one of the best parts of hosting our podcast is we get to actually meet and interact with our listeners. And we know we have some listeners over in Los Angeles.

2:02That's right. So if you're in LA, we're going to be recording a live show, some live recordings at the Vermont Theatre in Hollywood on September 17th. We have some really exciting guests lined up. Have some really great conversations planned. So go ahead and get your tickets. You can find those over at bloomberg.com, forward slash odd lots or click the link below in the show notes and come and say hi when you're there. Bloomberg audio studios. Podcasts, radio news. Hello and welcome to another episode of the OddLod's podcast. I'm Joe Wazenthal. And I'm Tracy Alloway. Oil has been in the headlines a lot lately. Just a bit. Obviously reasons, but you know, it's it has gotten headlines, but another commodity that's near basically at record highs that just keeps to me going straight up for years now is copper.

3:08Yeah. So copper, I think reached a new high of it was something like 14,875, a ton earlier this week. It is down about 3% as we're recording this episode. But I think it kind of speaks to I guess one of the tensions when it comes to copper, which is everyone has been saying or a lot of people have been saying that there is this long term strong demand impulse for copper because data centers use copper. We need it to electrify the grid. All of that stuff. And yet the price has often lagged behind and moreover, you get this volatility that means people who actually produce copper are sometimes reluctant to increase production. And in fact, I was looking at a note from our colleagues over at B enough recently and they were saying that this year we might have the first decline in copper production since 2017. I mean, this is part of why so called like super cycles can happen.

4:09And we've talked about this in so many different roles, both with the pure like sort of like resource extraction industry, but even now they're sort of like manufactured goods like if we were to about memory. Which is you can have these like periods of volatility. You don't really want to invest more during periods of volatility. Then you sort of have like a scarcity of capacity. Then it ramps up the price and that's like, oh, build more of what that is. Memories are long, right? And we saw that in shale as well. Memories are long. And then you know, it's like, I guess it's human psychology. Everyone finally taps at the same time. They're like, you know what? We're going to massively expand mining operations, which don't happen overnight by any stretch. And then suddenly you get gluts and your shareholders get mad at you, etc. Why do you just ride this wave, etc. And so these things can then just persist and feed on each other for a long time. But to your point, it's a crucial, you know, there's so much interest these days and resource nationalism, infrastructure, electricity and so forth.

5:09And copper really isn't the center of it. Did you see this is a slight tangent, but did you see the tweet from Peter Schiff? No. What do you say? With copper at 685 per pound, the melt value of a pre 1982 penny is 4.5 cents. And he calls it, he calls melting pennies, not only risk free, but the upside potential is huge, which is kind of funny because I'm pretty sure that melting down US currency is in fact illegal in the US. And so there might be a little bit of a risk there. I also think about like how much legwork and effort you would have to do to even like find a bunch of pre 1982 pennies. And whether that would come to more than three pennies each one, you think about the ever anyway, but yes, copper. I mean, that said, I mean, that tweet is funny for many reasons, but there is a lot of supply copper supply that comes from recycling. And that is intention with the new production as well.

6:10And that is an important element. Anyway, we got to do a copper episode. And this time we're going to be speaking with someone like right in it. Someone who has to like make these decisions about investment, how sustainable it is, what's optimal and how the cost to build out new capacity, how these calculations actually work. We literally have the perfect guest today. We're going to be speaking with Robert Friedland. He is the founder of Ivan Ho Mines, Ivan Ho Electric, a new startup called iPolps, which we're going to learn about. He has been in the industry for over 40 years, literally getting his hands dirty and pulling copper out of the ground. So Robert, thank you so much for coming on Adlaude's thrilled to have you here. I'm going to pleasure to be in the New York studios. And I just had the opportunity to meet Mike Bloomberg, which is amazing. This great, you know, I've always said, well, I work at Bloomberg. It's like the old ESPN commercials where you like walk around and you get to like meet all these luminaries just milling about the office, including our boss.

7:12What do you give us a, for those who don't know, why don't you give us a little bit of overview of Ivan Ho Mines and just like the portfolio of things you work on? What is, what is it all add up to and look like? Well, in life, you know, you tend to learn more and more about less and less. We've been in the mining business for over 40 years globally. And in recent years, standard and poruses declared copper as the new oil. We used to fight wars over crude oil. I doubt we would have gone after Saddam Hussein was shocking off. There was absolutely no oil in Iraq. But today, the supply chain, which is a mystical concept to most people, is being Balkanized in competing geopolitical groups. There's a war going on that's spreading, affecting the state of our moods and other critical materials. And copper is central to everything we do. This is a super eye technology studio, which is enabling us to talk to the whole world is completely dependent on copper.

8:19And more importantly on mining because everything you touch, we either mind it or we grew it agriculturally. And the farmers are totally dependent on mind, product anyway like fertilizer or their tractors. So it is time to talk about copper's role as a paradigm for a suite of critical metals without which we're really going to have severe problems. Can you give us your sort of origin story? How did you get into mining? Why were you interested in the space? This is a strange and bizarre story, but Steve Jobs and I had a partnership that goes way, way, way back. Our partnership with Stolen has been sold on the secondary market to a movie producer. But Steve and I were 50, 50 partners where I was the general partner and he was the limited partner. And we financed it by a loan from the Bank of America on his Apple shares. What year were we talking about here? It would have been in the 1980s.

9:19And we went out and started buying Timmerland because we thought we were going to be rich hippies. And trees grow about 6% a year. Just leave them alone. Douglas Fertries. I thought we just live in a tepee and get rich. That's the dream. Being a rich hippie. I got to say. Yeah. And what happened was some of this Timmerland we bought in Oregon. There was an old gold mine that had been closed down in 1942. I don't know if you're aware under executive order L208. Franklin D. Roosevelt shut all the gold mines to force the miners to mine lead and mainly copper and zinc for the war effort. And in fact during the war for three years we made our pennies out of zinc rather than copper because copper was so critical to World War II. In World War I the price of copper went to the moon. William Randolph Hurst owned the butte Montana copper mine. And with that he bought up all the media in the United States and built the Hurst Castle.

10:20So he was sort of the Jeff Bezos of his day. And World War II copper was so scarce we had a mine zinc to make our pennies. And today as you just said, copper pennies worth about four or five cents. And that's a good sort of indication of where we're headed. So there was a mine. What happened from there? Okay. Keep going. Yeah. Well, you know, it was you want to just spend an hour until excuse me. Yeah, I kind of minding stories. I'm very happy to just make your mining stories. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Well, we could spend days on Steve Jobs stories. But you know, one thing leads to another and I spent years in India studying yoga meditation and never dream. And my mouth while the streams that by my age I would learn everything there is to know about almost nothing which is how to find minds and how to develop them in in countries around the world. And we've done that probably more than anybody and we've found more critical copper mines and other types of mines than any other group in the world.

11:25So we've developed sort of a love hate relationship with mining. We've we've tasted failure and we've tasted success and success tastes a lot better. And now I've been spending more time with our government, both the Biden administration and the Trump administration as the walls start squeezing in on us. If you think about Indiana Jones and the temple of doom and the walls are coming into squeeze you and there's this giant ball coming down a ramp to crush you. And you have to dive underneath a trap door that's coming down. We are really looking at the weaponization of certain critical raw materials in the supply chain. And it's it's really a profound national security interest and it comes at the same time that a lot of humanity is still worried about anthropomorphic global warming. I know it's not as fashionable during the Trump administration to worry about how hot it is out there.

12:25But actually last year was the hottest year and 132 years since temperatures were recorded. And the metals we need to do something about that are the same metals that are needed for drone warfare or the defense from drone warfare. And so we're seeing a sort of perfect storm in a Balkanized rural economy where demand for certain critical metals is going to infinity. Did you ever notice how you spend hours shopping online only to pause right before you hit by now that tiny hesitation the one where you wonder if it is trustworthy can make or break the sale. Now with AI changing the way consumers discover and compare things that split second trust question matters more than ever. That's where PayPal comes in for more than 25 years.

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14:29Training and artificial intelligence tools ranked in the bottom third of the skills list but recruiters did say AI specific training will be more important in five years. On that recruiters rated current graduates as only somewhat prepared or less to work with AI tools and said business schools are not doing a good job of teaching AI skills bottom line according to the survey what most companies want when it comes to AI skills is for candidates to be able to automate routine work. That's the Bloomberg tech minute brought to you by chat GPT put chat GPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects get started at chat GPT dot com today by selecting work mode available on plus and pro plans. You know I used to be a hippie too I was used to be.

15:32Yeah well you know like I was raised by vegetarian parents used to meditates and then when I was in college I lived in a vegan co-op and stuff like that but now I work in a big office building in New York City and occasionally I'd have to put on a suit and tie and I like think about like I wanted my 20 what was my 22 year old self of thought. Whatever do you have those thoughts do you ever like think about where you are today and then that 20 year old the 25 year old version of you and like it think is this continuity with that person have been happy with me the way was because I think about this yeah well i'm. I'll deny it the use the word hippie will say it was a plane living in high thinking okay i'm. We went through the psychedelic era before I was 20 years of age in the night late 1960s and it was sort of tune on tune in drop out and then crawl back and then we got into yoga meditation went to India and did all that stuff for years and then fell into sort of the reality distortion field trying to dream up a business and make a difference and now i've passed the age of 76.

16:46I'm sort of worried about our country's national security I'm worried about the United States versus China I think a lot of people are selling the idea that the Chinese people are the mortal enemy of the Americans that's not true it's not true but our systems are in conflict and the world is bulk inized into opposing groups and we're going away from crude oil being critical we have plenty of crude oil in the United States although we don't have. We don't have much refining capacity the cracks breads on diesel or an all time high but these high diesel prices and the crisis around the straight or moots are going to lead to some really crazy implicit consequences and we sit in the middle of that storm in the mining industry particularly in copper and that's something i'm very happy to talk to your people. So i'm i'm tempted to ask more about your psychedelics era but I won't stick to the topic copper so we seem to have some consensus that demand for copper is going up there's this need to electrify there's the data center story there's all of that there's also the national security interest.

17:58Angle which you just described and yet production has lagged we don't see a lot of new minds started and i'm just wondering with copper at fifteen thousand or almost fifteen thousand dollars a ton what is the industry need to see in order to be confident in boosting production. Let's start with the fact that if we go back to my engine d'arro our species is mine seven hundred million metric tons of copper it sounds like a lot. And you could recycle it and get it back all you have to do is tear down everything in the United States and make it look like the days of the woolly mammoths and we get back about three hundred million tons and in Europe we get two hundred million tons and in Asian other two hundred million tons. But unfortunately we don't want to go back to freezing in the dark and at the rate of current global economic growth with eight billion people on this planet to maintain three percent GDP growth absent the electrification of the world economy absent electric cars and let's not even get started on data centers we need to mind that same amount of copper that we mind in the last ten thousand years and the next eighteen years.

19:14And those of us that are in the industry don't see that as being possible because as you know there's the old adage what is fifty thousand lawyers at the bottom of the sea and the answer is a good start nobody has built anything near anybody in the United States as we have de-industrialized our country we haven't built a copper smelter or nuclear power plants in this country. We've been trying to build high speed trains between Los Angeles and San Francisco for thirty years but the Chinese can build everything they can build all refineries nuclear power plants in high speed rail but we outsourced all that in the last decade when you went to Walmart everything you saw said made in China. In fact one of the best restaurants in Beijing in the Grand Hyde Hotel took that as a label it was called made in China was a great Chinese restaurant. But now we're waking up to the fact that we've de-industrialized our country and we need copper metal if you believe in greening the world economy if you want electric cars air conditioners microwave ovens we need copper metal it's very copper intensive.

20:28We also need copper in sophisticated armaments in in those kinds of missiles like patriots that are interceptors against weaponry that are suddenly being used against civilians in conflict that we haven't seen since World War II. And this is a time that most of the great copper mines in Latin America are little old ladies laying in bed waiting to die and this is something I need to explain to you guys. So what started all this was originally the biggest producer of copper in the world was the Democratic Republic of the Congo it used to belong to King Leo Polde Belgium he owned the people the elephants the ivory and they might copper there for centuries. But around the turn of the century America dug the Panama Canal with big steam shovels a lot of people died of malaria digging that canal. But when the canals finished there were these giant steam shovels that were left over. And the Guggenheim family who were in the rag trade here in New York bought those shovels for pennies on the dollar and took them down to Chile.

21:35To use them to start digging for copper metal because we were getting into the first industrial revolution 1910 1920 president Polk and they went to a place called Chouki Kamada in Chile and the greater the copper was 3%. They took those old steam shovels and their company was called a sarco which was affectionately known as the American smelting and robbing company and the Guggenheim family made so much money they left the Solomon are Guggenheim Museum of modern art here in New York on Fifth Avenue designed by Frank Lloyd Wright. Now there were two other great American mining companies that rose out of our industrial run a sense there was anaconda and canocot but all of them were nationalized by a leftist president in Chile named Ayende. Ayende took them away took them for the Chilean state and America responded by killing him the United States CIA murdered Ayende and he was replaced by a right wing general named Pinochet and Pinochet said I need these copper mines he didn't give them back to the United States in fact he kept them they're called cadal code today.

22:48And he said 10% of the copper produce will come off the top to finance the Chilean army and that was sort of the beginning of the wave of nationalization of resources you know around co is originally found by an American oil company and then Saudi Arabia took the oil back and today most of the oil in the world belongs to sovereign oil companies and America was left without a great copper champion. And when I was younger during say the Clinton era we started embracing China. We I was very early into China first went into China in the early 1980s George Schultz introduced me to China I was in fact the first American to go mining in China in Western China in Xinjiang. And you know I watched the incredible rise of the Chinese people. No one is uplifted their economy that far that fast in human history. And we thought by bringing China into the WTO we're going to turn the Chinese into Americans we thought all the girls wanted been no low blotics shoes and Birken bags all the guys wanted porches and they did an incredible job of uplifting their society.

24:08But things haven't worked out exactly as we thought between our respective societies. Now most of the mining fell to junior mining companies listed in Australia or Canada for decades these companies were registered in Canada like ships are registered in Liberia. Legislation was friendly up there for the risks with mining thousands of these little juniors would go around looking for mining and the big mining companies became more and more brain dead they became like giant donut shaped law firms with mediocre operating companies in the middle. For example X-Han doesn't really drill for oil today it's a big law firm but they hire people like flumber j or baker used to do their work and they just sort of move on. And if you look at the food chain when I was young I grew up in the 1950s the United States government made a little pyramid food pyramid for us and it said you're supposed to drink four glasses of cow's milk every day and a certain amount of milk and cheese and eggs and ham.

25:15And at the top of that food pyramid was steak meat and when I was in school you know we were given that food pyramid and when I was a kid you know I'm remembering this vividly at the age of eight they made us get under the desk to practice for nuclear war and the end of a nuclear bomb. And I was the kid that told my teacher this is crazy we're all getting it vaporized if there's a nuclear war so there always a rubble always sort of getting in trouble. Now nobody that I know of in California eats out of that food pyramid anymore people go to Erwan and you know they're there maybe weak grass juice and sunlight and some pilates but there's nobody nobody eating that stuff anymore but I want you to know the Pentagon also had a food pyramid and they got that all wrong. And what modern warfare requires is none of the stuff in that food pyramid and so now I get to get an odd lots and try to explain the magic of mining to you guys. Amazing amazing you know just again not to keep delivering the point as hippies but it's someone who grew up with all in the presence of a lot of wheat grass once again it feels like history comes back and I was well prepared for this moment.

26:28Let's talk about that pyramid then you know let's just say the politics suddenly changed such that like you didn't need a lot of lawyers such that people didn't complain if they lived in the presence of a mine or so I don't know miraculous things that could never happen. Why don't you just talk about I guess the math and the engineering in terms of like the deficit that you foresee between demand supply and what it would take I guess from an engineering standpoint or a money standpoint to build out the supply that we need for whatever are the key wrongs of that pyramid. That's a brilliant question and opens up an amazing kind of warms for your audience. So the largest copper mine in the world is a lot escondida it's in Chile and we need to look at that clinically to try to understand the existential dilemma we face. When it was first found a generation ago the grade was close to 2% copper they've been digging deeper deeper deeper and today it's point eight of 1% it belongs to Rio Tinto and BHP the largest money companies in the world in the western world but within two years the grade is going to drop to point four of 1% so the grade is going down and as that grade declines the rock deeper in the pit is getting harder and harder.

27:55To crush and grind and you need to take rock and reduce it to tell compouter to get the metal out the way we get the metal out of rock is we make tell compouter out of it and about 4 to 5% of all the energy produced on planet earth is utilized in the crushing and grinding of rock which is a huge number when we're worried about the generation of global warming gas now. That mine sits at 12,000 feet elevation in the andes and it hasn't rained in the out of come a desert in 30,000 years and you need to cubic meters of water to crush one cubic meter of rock so as the grade of that rock is declining in copper you need to crush and grind more and more rock to get less and less metal and since you're generating the electricity in Chile by burning primarily coal. They have some solar but the sun only shines six hours a day you need 24 hour day power in the mining industry the global warming gas generated by crushing and grinding that copper is going up and up and up and to further confuse you they built a four billion dollar decolonization plant at sea level they take sea ocean water get the salt out of it that's using a million dollars a day of electricity because you have to pump that water from the sea.

29:21I mean the sea level up to 12,000 feet and the water consumption is going up the energy to generate and pump that clean water uphill is going up and the metallurgical recovery is going down and and so it's their modeling 10 12 billion of investment just to make that mine go down in production and that is what's happened to our industry our global production of copper this year is down even though prices are up. I'm not saying because I just told you we need to mine as much copper in the next 18 years as we did in the last 10,000 years just to maintain global 3% GDP growth without the electrification of the world economy now when you look at data centers it really gets if you want to use our earlier term psychedelic because the hyperscalers have incredible market capitalizations and the world is going to be a lot of money. And they had a beautiful viral technology and in fact in the last 30 years all the capital on Wall Street went into sexy technology like the internet and broadband and Netflix and wireless and all the kids went into that and the Bloomberg studios were built but when all the money goes in that direction we didn't put money into basic raw materials which are the foundation on which everything sits in fact we stopped mining things in the United States

30:49and we sort of pushed this all to China we said well let's let the Chinese build everything at Walmart you go to Walmart everything said made in China so all the pollution was over there in China and we thought this is a good deal we can be a consumer society will drink our lattes here and complain about global warming and just let the Chinese do all the work and this model is no longer viable and now we're waking up and finding that there really is a critical. raw material supply chain in the Biden administration when he's to work with Amos Hachstein who is in charge of the energy transition and was all about global warming you remember that world and as we came out of covid we saw that it was getting hotter and hotter and we started thinking for solar power you need copper for wind you need copper the way we generate electrical energy the way we transmit it this studio is ludicrously copper intensive and energy intensive and there is no.

31:49nothing and I mean nothing about the internet that is inherently green let me give you an example when you do a Google search and all of us are guilty of every now in Google search you push that key you're using the amount of electrical energy that it takes to run 100 watt light bulb for about 12 seconds which doesn't sound like a lot but there are hundreds of billions of Google searches and that electricity is not free you think it's free when you do that Google search but it's paid for by advertising now when you do an AI search and I use chat GPT for and you know we're using cloud and do an AI search you're using 30 times more electrical energy using the power takes to run 100 watt bulb for two minutes or three minutes and every single kid in the world of five year old with an iPad is going to be using AI searches and so the electrical demand for AI literally goes to infinity now here's our problem here is our dilemma AI is at its roots a military technology and I want to explain why do you want to hear this please so we have a genius of polymath named Elon Musk you know his brain is beyond most people's comprehension it reminds me a lot of Stephen jobs but

33:15he's developed a series of low earth orbiting satellites where the latency when we send a signal up to outer space is 27 millionths of a second going up and coming down now if I'm sending a drone to kill you Joe it knows what you look like even though you've grown your beer a little longer we can identify you know little microdron they could be a mother drone releases baby drones and this drone is looking for you and going back to the hippie era all it has to do is attach itself to your third eye boom and you're gone now this is a military technology drone technology is so efficacious that the the the leopard tags and the Abrams tanks we were giving to Ukraine are parked and no longer used because a $12 drone can find them from the heat signature from the tailpipe and just kill them so a drone warfare and drone warfare and depends on AI because there's an AI identification the target up it goes to the satellite it comes back down wipes out the target and if my satellite system has a millionth of a second less latency than yours you die I don't so AI first goes to military application and later on it goes to a beautiful sexy doll to make love with their selling those beautiful robots

34:43robots right now in China and those humanoid robots also will utilize astronomical amounts of these same critical raw materials and maybe those robots would be a terminator or maybe they'll make a great lover you know very sympathetic chatting to you but all of these technologies are insanely can some type of electrical energy near AI girlfriend is actually created by servers and and a server in a server farm uses 20 critical metals that the new oil and you don't even know that you need you need niobium and tantalum and play the and rode him and reenium or for example if if you're gents and wang and you've got nevidia you need gallium nitride or if you want to improve memory and chips you need scandium nitride and so instead of the food pyramid that the army naven air force relied on in those days of stuff like coal and oil and yeah they add a little bit of copper in the old food pyramid today it's what we call critical raw materials

35:54AI girlfriends and boyfriends please yes I agree if you if you want to our Arnold Schwarzenegger style male robot they're coming and they're opening soon at a theater near you and the actuators the electrical motors these things are going to go and plug themselves into the grid to recharge are incredibly dependent on AI and this whole unbelievable machine we're building that requires the metals that I'm talking about right now I didn't expect this conversation to be the moment where I sort of reveal one of my takes but oh god it's not on sex robots is it it's not on sex robots per se but kind of in the sense that I think that like the boomer generation had to sort of get comfortable with the fact that their children might be gay the millennial the gen X generation had to get comfortable that their children might have trans partners and the millennial generation is going to be the one that has to get comfortable when someone brings back their AI robot or girlfriend and they're going to get mad at their parents when they don't respect it anyway keep going

37:08thank you for that image Joe back to copper does technology solve any of the mining constraints that we've had because there must have been technological developments in the industry over the course of your career and of course we all know about the shell revolution and what happened there do you see tech advancing in such a way that maybe production does increase well now that we've unleashed AI and I hope as a card carrying humanoid that we can control it you know that's an open question I want to tell you I'm not a robot I'm a grandfather you're asking some very very important questions we cannot as an industry find and responsibly mine the copper that we need for an energy transition with yesterday's technology it's just impossible we can't mine more copper than X 18 years with yesterday's technology without generating the same global warming gas that we were worried about in the first place

38:18because the energy requirement I'm just talking about diesel and the diesel price the skyrocket let's let's talk about that yeah the straight our mood remains closed largely today global hydrocarbon coming to the market is down at least 10% and the tertiary implications are terrifying sulfuric acid about 25% of the copper that we recover in the world requires sulfuric acid to leach it and it comes out of the Middle East from natural gas places like Qatar so without that sulfuric acid we've seen prices in the last eight months go from $150 a ton to well over a thousand dollars a ton for sulfuric acid it's also used to make fertilizer or food or to make semiconductor it's sulfuric acid is the king of chemicals but it's a funny byproduct of the closure of the straight that the price of sulfuric acid is skyrocketing and in the Congo we heap leach copper about 25% of the production needs that very same sulfuric acid

39:24now I'm fortunate in that our company built the largest copper smelter on the African continent it's the most modern copper smelter built in the world and we produce sulfuric acid as a byproduct of our copper mines and we sell that sulfuric acid to our brother copper miners in the Congo at higher and higher prices but there is a worldwide shortage of sulfuric acid Russia and China have now banned the export of sulfuric acid and if we don't have more of it food prices are going to rise globally and we are seeing incipient inflation arising through the supply chain as our beautiful integrated Justin time world economy breaks down into a Justin case economy and now what do I mean by Justin case so every country in the world is looking to their own supply chain Japan is building up its military north and South Korea are building up their respective militaries they don't like each other Taiwan is trying to turn into a big porcupine and in fact if Taiwan goes to Chinese control

40:32TSMC they're a semiconductor company and MSL who make the lithograph machines to make semiconductors are rigged to be exploded in the event of falling into Chinese hands China has a massive military build up India and Pakistan fought a war a little over a year ago could have gone nuclear they're both increasing their military budgets Europe is waking up and going to a 3% GDP military budget worried about Russian drones and unconventional warfare and you know the Trump administration is a put as proposing a 1.5 trillion dollar budget next year up 50% for defense and all of these modern systems are copper intensive and what happens as these countries start to look at copper as a proxy on money let's just explain that in the last year or two we've seen the dollar price of copper go from $4 to $6 or $7 but if you live in Japan it was only 50 60 70 end of the dollar as I went to 160 end of the dollar it just took so much more yen to buy copper it looks twice as expensive in Japan

41:46and in fact as Scott Besson our Treasury Secretary is trying to prevent the end from melting down is so good for the carry trade for all your hedge fund listeners but if the if the young collapses Mrs. want to nabby might not buy our treasuries and then rates go even higher and that wouldn't be good for the midterm elections of the 2028 elections so we've come to a point where push has come to shove and the and we just haven't had enough capital or technology in the mining history so we're getting back to your question can we use Yankee ingenuity and innovate our way out of the fact that the walls are crushing you know that you know Indiana Jones and the temple of doom you definitely have a way with metaphors can I just say that well no we're you know those of us in the mining industry scratch our heads of wonder don't these people on Wall Street understand how hard it is to build a mind the resolution copper project in Arizona has been trying to get a permit for 35 years so the banana principle is build absolutely nothing anywhere in there anybody and you know we just you know the old adage was what 50,000 lawyers at the bottom of the sea and the answer was a good start how does Japan work with only 2000 lawyers and the

43:08only 2000 lawyers we have millions so so we need to repressiv copper is a good and in the Biden administration we finally got copper added to one of the list as a critical raw material but the democratic party under the Biden administration couldn't bring themselves to putting a good housekeeping seal of approval on a mine they they were sort of warming up to the idea that we need money otherwise you have to burn coal or oil and they were moving in the right direction I worked with Amos he was in charge of the energy transition and they were recognizing that solar is good wind is good but you know the wind doesn't blow all the time the sun doesn't shine on the time you need grid scale batteries my obsession is with geothermal power and my obsession is with a cleaner and greener way to liberate these metals and the good news is that there is disruptive technology available that we are working on we've had the support of a lot of major tech investors and a number of governments Japanese

44:12French and the United States government and we do think it is with great difficulty possible to innovate our way out of this mess but it's going to be very tough and it's going to be a very closely fought thing this is the Bloomberg tech minute brought to you by chat GPT now with chat GPT work I'm Carol master has the AI moment arrived at corporate offices worldwide not yet and it's perhaps several years away according to one survey of corporate recruiters who circle the world's business schools each fall in spring Bloomberg's Rob Mandelbaum notes that according to the graduate management admission council the skills recruiters sought most among 2026 graduates of business school master's programs including MBAs for communication problem solving and adaptability which changed little from last year training and artificial intelligence tools ranked in the bottom

45:23third of the skills list but recruiters did say AI specific training will be more important in five years on that recruiters rated current graduates as only somewhat prepared or less to work with AI tools and said business schools are not doing a good job of teaching AI skills bottom line according to the survey what most companies want when it comes to AI skills is for candidates to be able to automate routine work that's the Bloomberg tech minute brought to you by chat GPT put chat GPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects get started at chat GPT dot com today by selecting work mode available on plus and pro plans you already know how AI is changing how every day work gets done how much ground you can cover and how fast a team can scale to stay ahead you need the tools to give you a competitive advantage built for this new era welcome to a genetic revenue adio is the CRM for this world it meets you where you work compounds every customer signal into context then acts on it across your pipeline to let you move it on match speed and scale with agents and animations for every job in revenue adio orchestrates your work around the clock

46:32built to handle the scale of your workloads extensible with API and MCP and with the infrastructure to keep up with your most ambitious agents loved by high growth startups like granola modal and etched adio runs the work behind every win that's adio the agent to CRM the intelligent system that never sleeps picks up leads at 2 a.m. catches renewals before they slip hands you the answer before you ask try adio free at adio dot com slash i heart that's adio dot com slash i heart this is Jacob Goldstein from what's your problem running a business is hard enough don't make it harder with a dozen apps that don't talk to each other one for sales another for inventory a separate one for accounting that software overload Odo is the all in one platform that replaces them all CRM accounting inventory e-commerce HR fully integrated easy to use and built to grow with your business thousands of already made the switch why not you try Odo for free at od o o dot com that's Odo dot com

47:42you know I recognize that you know when we talk about your actual operational footprint you talk about Africa we also talked about south america in this world now where everybody is trying to call a bulk inization or resource nationalism or so far earlier this week I know this that were you like head for your digging stuff out of the ground but we have kind of a base in Canada was a news of the government investing 405 million on a new highway project build out the transportation infrastructure in parts of the country a country that is in doubt with quite a bit of important materials do you think like there is a big opportunity there if there are you know the current government actually seems quite serious about resource investment in a way that perhaps the prior liberal governments in Canada hadn't been are you optimistic or do you see a prospect for there is a lot there if we invest in the infrastructure to drive out and get it so I need you to understand that we are in the low foothills not the Rocky Mountains where the low foothills of the Himalayas in the metal demand we face if we want to green the world economy because the Bloomberg organization has a lot of lot of good work done on global ecological issues and yet we are going to be able to do that.

49:11We face the insipient and viral war that has broken out in Ukraine in the Middle East Iran or Moots and we have Balkanized ourselves into two giant opposing groups we have Russia China North Korea and Iran closely cooperating Iran now has hypersonic missiles which by the way we don't have yet that are terrible that are incredibly amazing that Iran can target missiles so precisely with technology that must have come from Russia or China and we have a kind of rally pressure and if you look at our president he told Mr. Zelensky in Ukraine I will help you if you give me critical raw materials it's become very mercantile you never saw an American president say I will help you only if we have critical raw materials if you want to see the real world if you give me five minutes I want to talk to you about World War II and the current situation.

50:12Trace and I are both middle aged dads who love war II. Most of your listeners are too young so I really need to explain this to you by analogy. The Japanese thought it was a good idea for some reason a bomb Pearl Harbor they had an idea in their mind and they did it and Franklin D. Roosevelt was a Democrat was president of the United States and he was an isolationist. He did not want to get involved in World War II but in England you had Chamberlain and you had Churchill and Churchill was obsessed with the Nazis and he came to Franklin D. Roosevelt begging for help and ultimately in 1940-41 Churchill grudgingly said I got a message from Roosevelt I will lend you and I will lease you what you need for the war effort I won't give you anything for free but I'll lend you coal I'll lend you oil I'll lend you copper I'll lend you tin I'll send it over on my merchant shipping with American boys

51:13and later on you pay me back with interest because he was an isolationist you didn't want to get in the war. The Germans invented these incredible little U-boats, little needle submarines and they started sinking our merchant shipping interrupting the supply chain between the United States and Great Britain during the war. Fortunately a group of mathematicians in England broke the enigma code and had that not happened everybody in England today would be speaking German. It was a very closely fought thing the Germans were working on heavy water reactors and nuclear weapons. Ultimately we dropped an atomic bomb on Hiroshima it was a uranium bomb and then our second bomb we dropped was a plutonium bomb was a science experiment Truman authorized a second bomb to be dropped and America came out on top of the world. Now today the supply chain is being interrupted and none of those commodities that we needed World War II are relevant.

52:18Without gallium there is no navidia, no navidia chips, without scandium, reneum, disprosium, niobium, tantalum these are metals you don't even know about. We can't build this studio, we can't develop AI as fast as the Chinese and our hyperscalers are getting in debt. They're borrowing money to poor concrete and steel. Their heads are in the clouds but their feet are of clay. They're sitting on the earth and there's a shortage of electrical capacity and I come here to run these data centers. In fact there's a backlash against data centers in the US because voters are seeing the price of electricity go up and so this is a very strange weird thing unfolding here that China has more than twice the electrical energy it needs to run its society and we don't. There was a power failure here in New York, I think it was the 1970s or 1980s. Our power here in New York comes from a hydro power and comes back.

53:20It comes down from hydroelectric dams that you could never build today. A bunch of hippies were laying in front of the bulldozers to bring those lakes from being developed but when the power went out here in New York a lot of babies got made. Nine months later there's a big bump of babies because there was nothing else to do. It's dark out and people stayed at home. They were worried about looting but today if you want everything Elon's doing. If you want Groc, if you want AI, you want humanoid robots, you want electric cars, you want microwave ovens and washing machines. You want to clean the environment and you want to defend yourself against drones coming to get you. You need ultra sophisticated critical metals and unfortunately all of them are developed by China. They're not found here in the United States and the Chinese are very rationalized and very critical in an intelligent way. We're not going to sell them to you unless we agree. In fact, if you're a U.S. manufacturer you now have to give your plans to the China Military Commission and say why I want one of these metals and then they study it, they look at your blueprints and they can refuse the supply of those metals for any reason or no reason.

54:37Now we're ahead as a society on chips and they're ahead on critical raw materials and maybe there's some big trade to be made here when Scott Pessant negotiates and in fact President Xi Jinping is doing the United States of September 24th and this could go two ways. We could play the game with each other like on a level playing field with a game of rules like rugby where I break your collarbone and you break mine but we don't kill each other or this could spin out of control because Chinese AI is coming, it says good is ours. It's 99% as good as ours and they're going open source. They're going to give it to American enterprise for free while the hyperscalers are betting the farm on astronomically large capital investments but they can't find the electricity in the United States and the critical raw materials to develop these things and that's why I told Bloomberg recently as a minor.

55:38I'm being approached by unconventional interest out of Silicon Valley and we're talking to the big hyperscalers are saying my god we got a problem now. What exactly do they want to do here? Are they talking about like investing equity or owning some sort of facility? Well, you know, nobody that's in technology wants to get their hands dirty mining because you know telling us damn can collapse there could be an environmental issue in mining and we like to think that technology exists in a parallel universe where we never get our hands dirty but it's the technology that's drawing all this electricity that is generating global warming gas in other words it would be neat if Microsoft could run all of their power off of nuclear power plants. In fact, they went after three mile island to reopen it to provide the electricity for these data centers but actually currently they're going to natural gas and you know that's not really that green and there's a seven year wait to get a gas turbine to power a natural gas power plant air go blue energy.

56:42Their stock is going up because they have solid oxide fuel cells as an alternative to generate electrical energy for a data center data center needs uninterruptible power and can't work on solar because the sun doesn't shine all the time can't work on wind the wind doesn't blow all the time and so to build a solid oxide fuel cell you need scandium metal can't build it without it or to build a natural gas turbine you need to need medium metal in the core of the turbine and so we're really bumping up against critical materials to enable this kind of thing that we're doing today to exist at scale and the problem for us is that the response to this question has to be at the scale of the American economy. If we were a little country like Honduras we would need very much but we're big and in order to keep growing and going to AI suddenly the miners become the key and we can't go on mining the way we used to mine are we're going to destroy this planet we're going to instead of mining oil and gas and coal we're going to rip up every mountain site on the planet trying to find enough copper to have an energy transition and so we are dependent on

58:01becoming technologically savvy and a technological revolution it's not going to be easy but I'm working on it and I like you but I know you just real quick you know you mentioned a long wait for natural gas turbines right now for you placing orders for equipment just the standard run of the middle equipment things that dig stuff out of the ground are there like constraints these days the likes you wouldn't have faced 10 years ago to buy the thing it's it's beyond it's so bad that it's beyond your Wallace imagination when I when we built the you know we went up to Mongolia in the goby desert and we discovered the oil to go a copper and go mine which today is ranking about number four in the world in copper and as the world second or third largest gold resource and we're in the goby desert and we invested about seven billion dollars starting to discover this thing to start to build it but we didn't have the water we didn't have enough water run the mine so we had to go out looking for water and if we couldn't find the water we would have had a seven billion dollar modern art sculpture out there in the middle of the goby desert today about 20 billion of capital has gone into that mine Rio Tinto bought the company and it's in production

59:16and it runs on imported electricity from China on a hundred million dollar extension in court and the Chinese can just unplug it but they sell all of that copper into the Chinese economy so it's in China's interest to allow that mine to operate so you know there's an example of going somewhere to find something that's very energy intensive now repeat your question now I just mean you want to buy by a big shovel a big like like what's the backlog so I want to tell you about that mine so when we're building that mine I built the phase one mine we had the world's largest electrical motors they're like giant washing machines and there's rocks and steel balls you tumble the rocks and slowly the rocks bash against each other with these steel balls and with a huge amount of electrical energy you grind it down to tell computter to liberate the copper and the ring gear around those giant motors these motors are 40 feet in diameter approximately it was a four and a half year weight to get the ring gear

1:00:20in other words you order the motor four and a half years later Siemens or ABB could build it today it'd be an eight or ten year weight if ever you know and the hyper-scalers are trying to get a gas turbine today they're really because we have a lot of natural gas the United States you're generating global warming gas for your AI but it's about a six or seven or eight year weight and today when you read the fine print in the supply contracts they say well there's a force Missouri clause if we can't get one of the metals we just want to live it now I'll give you an example we had a temporary problem at one of our copper mines in the Congo we had a flood due to a seismic event and we needed to pump the water out of the mine and you know the mines about the depth of the the height of the Eiffel Tower or a little maybe two Eiffel Tower is deep and the pumps we needed pump 1,000 liters per second three times the height of the Eiffel Tower so these are very sophisticated pumps

1:01:24and we called the Americans they said sorry we can't build them we call the Germans no deal we called a law for the planet we said why not they said we can't get this more Samarium cobalt magnets for the electric motors because these pumps are like a rocket ship they're almost three meters in diameter they're eight or ten there's 80 90 feet long we lower them down the shafts only the Chinese could build those pumps fortunately the Chinese were buying our copper and so they built the pumps in 30 days and we got the mine pumped out when we were flooded we were losing about 15 million dollars a day in revenue so it wasn't a money question it was just who's going to sell us a pump yeah so you know there's a great song by Bob Dylan you know you're you're both two young remember it was the first real rap song it was called subterranean homesick blues yeah and you should play it because it's it's early rap but there's two great lines in that song from Robert Zimmerman aka Bob Dylan

1:02:27one was you don't need a weatherman to know the way the wind is blowing and the final line in the song it ends with the pump won't work because the vandals took the handle and what's happening now is that it's recognized that by withdrawing certain critical raw materials you can you can bring our economy to a halt if you look at a Boeing 747 on the runway it's got four million parts but if one part is missing it doesn't take off and so as our systems get more complex we're in a position to block me each other and right now we could tell China I'll give you an example I was talking to our treasury secretary he's an amazing person Scott Besson and I was asking about our discussion with the Chinese and he said I said I'm with the Chinese and they said you bastards haven't delivered the Boeing the general electric engines for our Boeing airplanes you promised us

1:03:31and he said well you haven't given us the critical metals we need to build those engines and so we're starting to point a gun at each other's temple and there's this giant chess game going on and we used to get this over crude oil and now it's moving towards the suite of critical metals that you don't talk about enough on Adlots well we're fixing that now so related to this one of the reasons that copper is falling this morning and we're recording this on September 10th but there's a report out saying that the White House hasn't made a decision yet on refined copper tariffs do tariffs help boost production in the US if the constraint is you know geological and legal and bureaucracy so Ernie called me from Reuters yesterday and I tell you I didn't want to comment on it because I've been wearing out my shoe leather going into the Biden administration and Trump administration but I could argue both sides of the proposition for you without telling you where I stand personally

1:04:36smart you know you know in the old days tariffs was the principal way that governments collected revenue in the in the British Empire when the Sun never set on the British Empire and we had ships the British crown authorized piracy you know your private TV go out and kill somebody and as long as 12 and a half percent went to the crown or they had tariffs and we didn't invent income taxes until the 1930s or so and the problem is that if I go to the Congo the greater the copper there is 3 4 5 6 percent it's unbelievably rich and there's a hundred million people in the Congo the median age you know what the median age of a person is in the Congo 18.7 so it's a very young population generation Z and they don't remember the days of the Civil War they want to work and I can get a brilliant software engineer that's Congolese

1:05:39who knows AI or who can run automated equipment for $800 or a thousand bucks a month if I want to mine copper in the United States the United Steelworkers of America won over $100 an hour to go underground and we have environmental legislation and legal constraints that make it much more expensive to mine in the United States but this is a paradigm we want to build a nuclear power plant in the United States or you want to put it in a data center in the United States it takes big big money so mining tended to go around the world where the resources are higher grade or lower cost but what happened was the financial system invented the net present value model it was originally made for oil and gas the mining company started MPV models all the mining companies were valued on NPV and it's a stupid idea because mines cannot be modeled to NPV oil fields can but not mines oil fields decline very fast if you don't put money into them they just the energy in the reservoir depletes but a mine with a hundred years of reserves doesn't a pleat like an oil field

1:06:48so the MPV model suppressed the valuation of mining companies in fact today mining companies in the aggregate only only have the value of less than 1% of the S&P 500 which is an all time low for mining now the Chinese saw this and they said my guy we got 1.3 billion people to feed forever these stupid Americans are willing to sell all this and they just came in over the top and they intelligently just bought the entire supply chain they bought everything that wasn't bolted down and so you know the problem is that the Chinese did something very intelligent for the Chinese people and today we don't own these assets anymore because all of our money went into Netflix or my you know and you know this really has to be somebody has to tell the truth about all this because basically we got caught with our pants down now can I tell you about my interviews with American billionaires so you know every time Bloomberg writes about me they say billionaire Robert Friedland I kind of get tired of that phrase

1:07:53I've now interviewed 50 male and female billionaires and I've asked them do you kind of sit down and put your pants on one leg at a time or do you hold your pants up in front of you and jump in with both legs simultaneously and I haven't found 1 billionaires who claims that he or she jumps into their pants both legs at a time and so this whole thing is overrated it's just paper money when I'm worried about as my grand my grandkids you know I'm worried about the sustainability how do we provide food and water and clean air to 8 billion inhabitants without warring groups we used to fight over crude oil most of the wars the last century was over crude oil and now we might start fighting related to AI and the critical raw materials to support that AI and that's why I think this should be a series this should be like breaking bad not a one off movie where we peel this onion and go deeper into the core of this issue

1:09:02and you know I know I know a lot of your guests have been starting to talk about this but this is a subject that is not going to go away for the next 10 or 20 years this is like a permanent subject for example I remember the 1987 crash rates were 12% and the stock market crashed and vulcour cut rates and the bond market went up for 35 years right now this is not an ephemeral short term thing that article that came out on Reuters today that spooked the copper market a little bit it's time about tariffs you asked me what I think about tariffs well if you want to mine in the United States if you want to be self-sufficient tariffs are a great idea because if copper six bucks you put on a 30% tariff 30% of six bucks is $1.80 you'd have $7.80 cents copper I could afford to hire a mine worker at the United States workers of America and mine in the United States we make it more viable to do that here

1:10:05however the other side of the equation is it'll create domestic inflation rates will otherwise go up we have the midterm elections coming so there's a political issue do you want to re-industrialize America or do you not want to re-industrialize America if you can't build a nuclear power plant if you can't build a ship you lose your sovereignty last year America built about eight ships and trying to build a thousand and so this is a very big question and do you really want to replace the entire system of crude oil and replace it with huge data centers run by clean energy or don't you and you know I want to tell you this country is well endowed by the creator in all manner of good things we have water we have amber waves of grain 10% of the copper over mine in the world came from the great state of Arizona the California license plate used to say the golden state because we discovered gold in California and the Arizona license plate said the copper state and people were proud of it you know and you know listen to Bruce Springsteen I mean we used to do stuff in this country you know we used to have last furnaces and steel mills

1:11:25and we lost all that because we thought we could outsource all this to China and everything at Walmart said me in China whether it's a microwave oven or a washing machine and this is part of the big debate is you want to re-industrialize America let's do it in a better way let's try to figure out a more sustainable way to do it but if we don't do it we have lost our sovereignty and I think that you're discovering this in Europe and this is being discovered globally and that's why we're beginning the age of hoarding what's happening is that governments are buying copper metal as a proxy on money and they're not reporting it and nobody can calculate the supply demand demand balance on any of these metals because why would you like we're seeing the statistics that China's buying gold of a sudden and they're not buying our treasuries they're selling our treasuries and some people think Bitcoin is an alternative asset for the United States dollar there's a great this base you know debatement trade starting hedge funds borrow the end and rely on the end of week and not have to pay the money back but we're at an inflection point now where this is all being exposed and everything is becoming naked and available to global scrutiny and we're seeing the same thing

1:12:49and we're seeing that demand has come against push and we're getting into more sophisticated understanding that do you want AI to what good do you want to make all of our kids get brainwashed on TikTok or Facebook do you really want to get our kids we're turning into two rival tribes here in the United States with the way social media is working and it's all driven by AI and AI can make it even more dangerous you know I've got a grandson you know I took my grandson's iPad away just freak out right you know so yeah I'm a baby boober yeah I admit it you know I admit it well Robert really looking forward to having you back tomorrow for part two and then the next day for part three of this discussion but no really appreciate you coming on odd logs that was fantastic we should talk again yeah you know to be continued

1:14:00I wasn't expecting to talk about sex robots I was going to say but when we're thinking about future future sources of demand for cover energy I suppose I suppose that's one yeah I got a plug in you got to plug it in and you have to keep it plugged in yeah well as far as baby boomer conversations yeah that was a fun one yeah for sure I I didn't hear a lot of solutions to the problem which I guess is why we're talking about this at all don't have your solutions but I think before you can even talk about solutions you have to identify the problems and I think one of the problems that we face is that at every step of the chain they're constraints right so let's say you make the decision to we really want to make a big investment in a new copper mine somewhere well there's a years long wait to get the equipment to get the earth moving equipment or the engines that you need to do that and the builders someone says okay we want to build a lot more engines because there are people who want to build a lot more mines well I guess then we need more gallium or whatever critical resource it is and so I think one of the things that's very helpful is to say like oh just build more mines just build more memory

1:15:17but in each leg of the chain one level up up you know higher up river etc they have their own backlog and it's still not clear that the market will actually reward you for increasing production because you still have the volatility and cycle supply problem yeah seems hard I think you said plenty it's like almost I don't have anything to add to it you know yeah all right shall we leave it there let's leave it there this has been another episode of the all thoughts podcast I'm Tracy all the way you can follow me at Tracy all the way and I'm Joe wise and thought you can follow me at the stalwart follow our producers Kermin Rodriguez at Kermin Arman Dashobennett at Dashbot kill Brooks and kill Brooks and Kevin Luzano at Kevin Lloyd Luzano and from our odd lot content go to bloomberg dot com slash odd lots River daily newsletter and all of our episodes and you can share about all these topics 24 seven in our discord discord dot gg slash odd lots and if you enjoy odd lots if you like it when we talk about mining them please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform and remember if you are a bloomberg subscriber you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely

1:16:20add free all you need to do is find the bloomberg channel on apple podcast and follow the instructions there thanks for listening you already know how AI is changing how every day work gets done how much ground you can cover and how fast a team can scale stay ahead you need the tools to give you a competitive advantage built for this welcome to a genetic revenue adio is the CRM for this world it meets you where you work compounds every customer signal into context then acts on it across your pipeline to let you move it on match speed and

1:17:21scale with agents and animations for every job in revenue adio orchestrates your work around the clock built to handle the scale of your workloads extensible with API and mcp and with the infrastructure to keep up with your most ambitious agents loved by high growth startups like granola modal and etched adio runs the work behind every win that's adio the agentic CRM the intelligent system that never sleeps picks up leads at 2 a.m. catches renewals before they slip hands you the answer before you ask try adio free at adio dot com slash ihard that's adio dot com slash ihard this is Jacob Goldstein from what's your problem running a business is hard enough don't make it harder with a dozen apps that don't talk to each other one for sales another for inventory a separate one for accounting that software overload odoo is the all-in-one platform that replaces them all CRM accounting inventory e-commerce HR fully integrated easy to use and built to grow

1:18:25with your business thousands have already made the switch why not you try odoo for free at odoo.com that's odoo.com we know kids don't hold back i wouldn't want them to get in there make a mess slide for home bring on the stains i've got oxyclaim versatile stain remover it works on over a hundred stains and it's america's number one stain fighter added a brand it's color safe and so i use it on whites colors and art fabrics and oxyclaim isn't just for laundry mix it with water for use all around the house kitchens bathrooms and even floors when my kids go all in i say go for it because i've got oxyclaim to get the stains out it's not clean unless it's oxyclaim