ROCK FIGHT? Missouri & Miami's Similarity Will Make A BATTLE

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Two wildly similar teams, but they say styles make fights.

So what's this Missouri Miami basketball game going to look like?

Let's talk Mark Mitchell, Malik Renaud, the whole match up, right now in this crossover

edition of Lockdown, Mizzou and Lockdown Canes.

You are Lockdown Colony Crossover, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, 14 every day.

Hey all you true sons and daughters and all you Miami Hurricanes fans as well.

It's nice to change up the music sometimes isn't it?

I am John Miller from Lockdown, Mizzou.

That's Alex Dono from Lockdown Canes and we got a ton to talk to on today's program,

including some football by the way as well.

Damon Wilson going one way, Dante Simpson going the other, but of course we got to start

talking about basketball Alex and safe to say Jay Lucas blew away expectations in his

first year in Coral Gables, huh?

Yeah, in my wildest imagination, I didn't think Miami could get the three seed in the

ACC tournament, finished third in that conference.

Miami was predicted by the so called experts.

I think I had one of the votes on this, but to finish eighth in the ACC this year and

it's understandable, you know, the team was awful last year is Jim Laranega who had

some of course incredible teams at Miami, had a final four run a few years ago, but last

year was really tough for Miami and Coach L retired early in the year.

Miami played most of the season with an interim head coach and Bill Courtney.

They won seven games in 2025.

They went seven and 24 and then you flipped the record in the first year of Jay Lucas.

They went 24 and seven regular season and they got an ACC tournament win after a double

buy.

And of course, I had some reservations about Jay Lucas just with the understanding that

he was a first time head coach.

Had some prominent assistant coaching roles was the top assistant for John Shire at Duke,

you know, the previous couple of years, which is obviously a great person to learn from

and from a coaching family from his father, John Lucas.

So the coaching chops were there, but when you're doing the head job for the first time,

I think I expected a few more growing pains and then of course, he had to completely rebuild

the roster.

There were zero holdovers, which may have been a good thing from last year's team, but

there were zero holdovers from last year.

So all expectations were exceeded in the regular season.

And you know, I think most hurricane fans are just they don't necessarily have final four

expectations this year, but I think Miami fans are kind of going into this tournament with

an open mind, hoping they can get a win or two.

And then this first one is going to be really tough matchup with the similarity of these

teams.

And then also, you know, some hurricane fans are a little concerned about, you know, playing

so close to Mizzou in that game, being played against St. Louis.

So there's a lot of storylines heading into this one, but I'm excited to break it all

down.

Yeah, I can understand if I were a Miami fan, I'd probably be a little miff that Missouri

is so much closer, but sometimes this just happens, especially unfortunately, if you're

a seven seed, you're not really the priority.

There's got to be some logic there.

But certainly if I were a Miami fan to go, jeez, thanks for that matchup, we really appreciate

it.

Another point, I think the similarities of these teams, I think it's sort of most obvious

when you watch Mark Mitchell and Malik Renaud play.

And because of how these teams are so similar, I think they're going to have to guard each

other too.

So it's sort of my previous episode, we were talking all fair how I did the pointing spider

man meme.

Well, these two guys almost remind me another meme I've seen lately, kind of a viral

video where there's this guy who's trying to like back down like a, like a, you know,

like a, like a Buick, that type of thing.

Like that's got how Mark Mitchell and Malik Renaud like to play, especially Mitchell in

the post.

So how do you see this matchup playing?

I think they're very similar players.

I think Mitchell is a little bit maybe more athletic, but Renaud, maybe a little bit more

of a refined player, he's certainly a better free throw shooter.

How do you see this playing out?

Yeah, you know, I, I see it as a situation where if they both play their best, they almost

cancel each other out, right?

And, but, you know, you never know who's going to have their moment and, and Renaud.

And obviously you could say the same thing about Mitchell, they've been so clutch, you know,

for both of their teams this year.

So it honestly may come down to who can get the big and one down the stretch in a close

game.

You know, who makes that maybe one extra offensive rebound that can spark an important

point down the stretch?

I think this is a sensational matchup.

And if you even go down the statistics like Renaud averages 18.8 per game, Mitchell averages

18.3 per game, like they're almost identical as you go through the stat sheet.

So I think really this is one of those where both coaches probably look at it strategically

like, all right, these guys are probably like you said, getting a guard each other.

Yeah.

And hopefully if they both play their best, it kind of cancels out.

And then on the Miami side, if, if Renaud and Mitchell cancel each other out a little

bit, Miami hopes their other big man Ernest Uday, who's not nearly as much of an offensive

threat, but a great defensive player shop blocker and offensive rebounder doesn't finish

at the basket nearly as well as Malik or Mitchell does, but maybe a guy like Uday might

have an opening to sort of take over the game in big spots.

But I could definitely see this being a scenario where the two of them Mitchell and Renaud,

they either cancel each other out or whoever has the more impactful game, their team ends

up winning.

Yeah, I'll just say from a Missouri perspective, I don't hate the matchup on the Mitchell

side simply because the teams and the matchups that can, that can bother him or guys who

can move their feet who are a little bit taller.

I like that they're basically the same size.

They're basically both 6'9, 2'30, 2'40, somewhere in there.

And since you brought up Ernest Uday, you know, I think, I disagreed, I think with

one of my previous guests this week, our colleague locked on Benz Lee Sterling, I think Uday

knows exactly who he is and is a pretty effective player, but Lee thinks he's basically terrible.

Who do you think is right?

I think, it's funny, Lee is a really good friend of mine.

And I know he's a big Miami guy as well.

He lives in South Florida, but I'm with you.

I disagree.

Like I think, I think Ernest Uday really knows his role and has leaned into it throughout

the season.

Like if you were to talk about the Ernest Uday of, you know, November or December, I could

have agreed with that take that, you know, very inconsistent.

But I thought since ACC play started for Miami, I think he's carved out a really important

role for himself as a rim protector and as a rebounder.

He's obviously got a ceiling, a lower ceiling when it comes to being a scorer and everything

like that.

But no, I agree with you.

I think Uday knows his role and I think Jay Lucas has really helped him lean into

it.

So that's the thing.

If Mark Mitchell and Reno, if they do happen to cancel each other out, like you've suggested

is certainly possible, that's the thing.

Uday, I think I know what I'm going to get from him, whereas his counterpart, Sean Phillips

is a guy who's probably a more high upside player, but he's also got a lower floor too.

He's a very emotional guy.

He has a tendency to flail his arms around everywhere.

I need him to foul out by the way, John, just so you know, I'm going to need him to

foul out his earliest possible.

Well, to your point in the, in Missouri's previous loss against Kentucky and the SEC tournament,

the Tigers lost that game, but in Phillips 19 minutes, he fowls out in the game when Phillips

was on the floor.

Missouri actually won that ball game by about 10 points when he was in there.

So to your point, I think that's a really good one.

I will say Trent Burns, I think Uday is a good matchup for him.

The big seven foot three, seven foot four freshman, red shirt freshman center for Missouri.

I do kind of like that matchup at least because he can get hurt if you can take him away

from the basket and it doesn't really seem like Miami necessarily has that player.

And of course, Miami has a lot of good players, including Trey Donaldson and Shelton Henderson.

So I want to get more into this ball game coming up here in just a little bit.

Of course, those football players I was talking about as well, but first award from our friends

at Mazda.

I'm Clea Butler, host of Lockdown Women's Basketball and this is Mazda's Women's Basketball

Snapshot celebrating the work no highlight reel can ever capture.

It's officially tournament time and the number one seeds are set.

UConn is the number one overall seed at 34 and 0 and will headline Fort Worth Regional

One at Dickies Arena joining the Fort Worth site as a top seed is Texas leading regional

three out West UCLA enters at 31 and won and takes the top spot in Sacramento Regional

two.

While South Carolina leads Sacramento Regional four, the first round of the tournament tips

off this Friday.

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Mazda puts that same drive into every detail, wins to find the moment, putting in the work

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And if you're feeling real froggy, I guess you could parlay the Missouri or the Miami

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The hurricanes have been sitting at one and a half this entire time ever since the game

came out on Sunday, by the way, 147 and a half is the over under I do have an opinion

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I'll share it for you a little later in the show, but head to fandall.com to get started.

It is fandall.com, fandall play your game.

And I was watching Alex Miami's most recent game against Louisville in the tournament.

I did notice a Shelton Henderson turned his ankle a little bit in that game state and seemed

to be fine.

It seems like he's okay, right?

Yeah, he's had a couple moments in the regular season and then in the ACC tournament

where he's tweaked an ankle, but he's like, got Wolverine healing powers like he had

an injury.

Yeah, he had an injury near the end of the regular season where he was like down on

the court and we thought, oh my God, is this a season ender?

And then he's back in the game like five minutes later.

So I think physically he's about as good as you can be health wise, you know, heading

into the tournament.

But just on Shelton Henderson in general, and this is obviously the highest upside freshman

Miami has.

Former McDonald's All-American, you know, was a big recruiting win for Miami.

He was committed to Duke before Jay Lucas, you know, made the switch and was able to bring

Shelton with him to Miami.

I honestly think John Henderson from the Miami side, I think is the biggest X factor for

this game because he's really the only one of Miami's most important players and scores

who doesn't have NCAA tournament experience like, you know, for a guy like Tray Donaldson

who's been to the tournament the last three years, most recently with Michigan, Malik

Renaud having been to the tournament with Indiana, like you have guys who kind of understand

what the bright lights of March mean.

But Henderson, and he's, you know, compared to both rosters because Mizzou's got a lot of

experience.

Miami has other experience players.

I think with him being, you know, so green when it comes to collegiate postseason play,

is he going to be able to perform to his regular season standards?

I think if he is able to do that and score, you know, 17 to 20 points in this game, Miami's

got a really good shot.

Or if he has his, like, welcome to March madness type of game and his less of a factor,

it's going to be tougher because Miami doesn't have a whole lot of depth like you're talking

about, like, basically a seven man rotation, yeah, which is, which is, you know, sorry,

it's late.

So, yeah, I think that's a big advantage Mizzou is going to have is just having more capable

bodies.

Yeah, I'll say with Henderson, I think that's funny.

You said he's just almost indestructible because I saw that ankle turn.

It was almost like going the opposite way to like normally your ankle turns inside

it kind of turned outside.

I was like, oh, that looked bad.

And then he just gets up.

He's like, dude, dude, dude, dude.

I was like, okay, I guess he's fine.

It's nice to be nice to be 18 years old, I guess.

That's all I can say.

But a little more on Henderson and his matchup specifically with Missouri's Trent Pierce,

because this is where I do think there's a little bit of a contrast.

Maybe the biggest contrast of all the matchups because Henderson at six foot six and is a

little bit more of a bruiser, I would say, whereas Pierce at six 10 is more of like your

lanky shooter type.

And Pierce definitely has more experience as a junior, has been as by far as most consistent

season this year.

I agree.

This isn't a really hugely important matchup.

If Missouri can get the best version of Trent Pierce, if Miami can get the best version

of Shelton Henderson, that's going to be a huge factor either way.

And I am really curious to see how those guys guard each other for sure.

Yeah, especially Henderson's case having to go up against somebody who's six 10.

I mean, that's just diabolical length.

I mean, that's, you know, Henderson's going to try to counteract that with his explosiveness

and aggressiveness.

But that it's never easy for a guy who's in the six six range to be guarded by somebody

six 10.

So I'm definitely looking out for that matchup.

Now back to the similarities here.

We got a couple of italihassy point guards, one in trade, Donaldson, one in Anthony Robinson

on the other side.

Now Robinson was expected to be maybe an all SEC type of player for Ukraine's fans out

there, but was eventually supplanted in the starting lineup by T.O.

Barrett of Missouri.

So a couple of pretty big point guards there, both about six three guys.

I think Donaldson, six three as well, again, a pretty good physical matchup there.

I think even Donaldson and Robinson were at least briefly high school teammates in

Tallahassee.

So the competitive fire could be, could be flow in there for sure.

What is it about trade, Donaldson?

I know he's an effective veteran player.

What makes him so effective?

Yeah, he's the engine of Miami and I'm glad we got to this to the guards because obviously

we spent a lot of time on the front court, which both teams have great strengths there.

But I think we both know, John, that the teams that make the deep March Madness runs are

usually teams that get exceptional guard play when it comes to the tournament.

Trade Donaldson, I best describe him as a pit bull.

I didn't watch him a whole lot when he was at Michigan.

I kind of learned a lot about him during the off season when he transferred to Miami.

And then when I actually started watching him play this season, he's just delightful to

watch with the way he's able to attack the basket.

Like he definitely has that clutch gene.

You know, he's someone who tends to do a really good job when you're talking about trying

to put opponents into foul trouble.

He's someone who can do that.

You know, he's been hit or miss sometimes at the free throw line, which Miami's entire

team has been shooting about 67% from the charity strike.

But if you're counting on someone to get you to that free throw line late and hopefully

hit clutch free throws, he's one of the candidates.

To do that, I just think Donaldson to me is he's the type of guard that's just built

for March when he starts driving to the basket at a high clip.

So I think really Miami in this tournament is going to go as far as trade Donaldson takes

them because I can't see Miami winning any games this week or this month without Donaldson

being a protagonist and being a guy who can really propel them there.

So since you have such a solid veteran point guard there, I have to say when I was

watching the end of that Miami Louisville game, I was surprised that the canes kind of

collapsed a little bit.

They had a lead for most of that second half or even up five with about 58 seconds to

go.

What happened there?

Sloppiness is the number one word on both ends of the floor.

You know, Miami tends to occasionally be overly turnover prone.

You know, they sometimes make up for that at the other end in one of the better forcing

teams in college basketball.

But yeah, in that Louisville game, which Miami did hold on to win, but at one point within

the final couple of minutes, Miami turned a nine point lead into a one point lead and then

had to kind of turn it on for the final two possessions to really close that one out.

It was offensive sloppiness, bad shot selection and turnovers on the offensive end.

And then on the defensive end, the thing that can drive me crazy about Miami is their

technique when it comes to contesting shots, when it comes to, you know, really going

up and slapping the hands and creating fouls.

I just feel like there can be times where they can defend more effectively without fouling.

So it can be a little frustrating.

They can get a little sloppy and I don't know if that's the hallmark of one of the few

weaknesses of a first year head coach and Jay Lucas.

I think they can be a little sharper on the defensive end of the floor and not forcing

as many fouls as they do.

And we've seen it, you know, we've seen it go both ways.

I mean, Miami had a big time clutch win against NC State in February in the regular season

where NC State kind of self-destructed in that same way that Miami did.

So Miami can take advantage of it.

If you give them any openings, they can come back from a big deficit in a very short amount

of time.

But sometimes there can be that sloppiness when the shot selection is bad and the defense

is sloppy.

So, you know, that's going to be something, hopefully they can learn from that.

And then, of course, their follow, they won the Louisville game.

The following game was just a baptism against a very good Virginia team, just blew Miami

out.

Nothing really went Miami's way in that one.

So we're all hoping there can be lessons learned from these losses and from these close

calls at the end of games.

Yeah, well, they say styles make fights, like I said, at the top of the show.

And right now, there's not much of a contrast between these two teams.

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And indeed, like I said, Missouri is still a one and a half point underdog to Miami.

It's been literally the second it came out.

It was one and a half been sitting right there.

I think that's a very fair line.

I think these teams are so similar, but on paper, you give Miami a little bit of the

advantage.

I'm fine with that even in St. Louis, but the 147 and a half the total in this game.

I got to say this game feels like it's going under to me because I think it's going to

be a bit of a grind because these teams are so similar.

Like I said, the cliche is styles make fights.

I don't think this is going to make a fight if you will.

It's going to be a fight, kind of literally in the paint.

I'm sure, but I just mean a high scoring back and forth visually pleasing basketball

game.

Probably not.

It's going to be the under Alex.

How are you thinking about that thought?

I lean in your direction and that's despite certain metrics.

But I think like you said, the fact that both of these teams play very physical.

They have size in the paint and it's the opening NCAA tournament game.

That's why I expect to feel out process and I would also consider taking the first half

under especially because I think these teams are probably going to exchange some, you know,

to use like a boxing analogy, the heavyweight fight where they're, you know, maybe a little

bit cagey and feeling each other out for the first half.

So I think overall under and first half under is probably a good way to go.

And listen to that, there are certain things that maybe try to pull somebody towards the

over mainly in, you know, Miami being near the top of the nation and points in the paint

and feel goal percentage and then Miami's perimeter defense being statistically poor.

Maybe Mizzou starts pouring on threes so to speak.

But I agree with you.

I think stylistically this one leans to the under so I would go that way.

And then I think a couple of other just, you know, rudimentary things to consider with

the line being as close as it is at one and a half.

I think for any, especially the locked on Mizzou listers, if you're, if you want to bet

Missouri in this game, you should go money line, not, not spread.

You're going to get better value there.

And then for Miami, you would probably do the opposite, right?

There's going to be, you know, more, more juice on, on the money line.

So you would take Miami, you know, minus one and a half.

So you got to, you got to try to maximize every dollar there on the fan duel app.

So I would go that way.

I think that's a great thought.

And I also agree with your thought on the first half too.

And I'll just say, I know the, we'll see if this holds true in March madness.

But certainly in the SEC this season, the pattern has usually been a much tighter whistle

in the second half, which leads to a lot more free throw attempts.

That would be the biggest thing I would worry about going under in this game is, obviously,

this could turn into a foul fest, both Mark Mitchell and Malik were no draw a lot of fouls.

Try to get to the free throw line a lot.

But anyway, I guess prediction wise, how you feeling about the team?

I'll be honest from the Missouri side.

I'm going to pick Missouri to win.

And if you're going to give me the one and a half, I'll take it.

I'm not feeling real confident right now.

The Tigers losers of three in a row here.

And I have to admit, I'm feeling a little bit stung still going to last season.

Missouri had a, had a poor finish to the season as well.

I hope, I hope that's not the case here, but I'm a little worried.

How are you feeling, Alex?

It feels like a coin flip game for a lot of reasons.

I'm, I'm going to lean to Miami just because I am going to trust Trey Donaldson.

In the final minutes, to be able to kind of squeeze what he can out of a clutch game.

Because I do think it's going to be close.

I'm going to go Miami by two, but that's going to be, that's going to be contingent on

Uday and Renault staying out of foul trouble.

And it's also going to be contingent on, you know, Miami just playing, you know,

some of their better perimeter defense of the season, turning that on in the tournament.

Because if, if Missouri gets hot from three against a team that doesn't historically defend those,

that would give me concern.

But at the same time, I, I do think Miami has maybe enough advantages with their shorter

rotation of seven, eight guys that they're going to be able to get it done.

So I'm, I'm going to take Miami, but I think it's going to be a slugfest.

Yeah, I agree.

It's not, it may not be a visually pleasing fight, but it's going to look like a fight in a

lot of ways, I think that's my prediction.

But we'll get out here with a little bit of football talk because there has been some

Missouri to Miami and vice, and vice versa, that type of deal.

I'll just say, first of all, for Miami fans, you're getting a good one in Damon Wilson.

There's no doubt you've gotten one of the best pass rushers.

I would say in the entire portal.

Damon was a very good player from Missouri last year.

I'm frankly surprised that he left.

I just assumed that it would either be the NFL or Mizzou for Damon because when Missouri,

much like Miami these days, when they want somebody back, they typically get him back.

So Miami must have given him an offer that was incredibly difficult to turn down.

That's all I can say.

You've got a good one in Damon Wilson.

Yeah, and I think on that note, I think Miami knowing that they were, of course, losing

Rubin Bain and Akeem Mezzador in the same offseason, that makes you really aggressively

turn to a proven pass rusher like Wilson, because Miami's got other dudes at defensive

end, but just not anyone with Wilson's experience level.

I think that really became a priority and also, in addition to the NIL stuff, also the

selling point of, we need our next Rubin Bain, I'm sure is something that they used in

that pitch.

On the flip side, we were talking a little off-air about this player who I'm super bullish

on, a much different career so far to Damon Wilson, but Dante Simpson, who just finished

his true freshman year at Miami, and he transfers over to Mizzou, which, yeah, from our point

of view, John, that was a little surprising, like I still, I haven't inquired on, like,

from the Miami side, what the backstory was on Dante Simpson, but, you know, someone who

obviously didn't play a whole lot last year, because he was a true freshman, but Dante Simpson,

John, I can tell you, and he's a South Florida kid, came out of Shamanad, Madonna, high school,

so I did watch him play a little bit, going back to his high school days.

He really was like one of the young standouts in practice at Miami last year, and for

the minimal game time that he got, did pretty well with it, but I can remember going back

to some of the shows that I did during fall camp last year, and Dante Simpson was always

a guy that, like, we had on our list of, hey, don't sleep on Simpson, he's really excelling

as a true freshman, and I had just kind of assumed that, you know, heading into his second

year, had he stayed at Miami, would have really been on the short list when it came to rotational

guys, a defensive tackle this year. And like you mentioned, like Miami and Mizzou don't typically

lose guys to the transfer portal that are part of the plan, right? And most of the players

Miami's lost into the portal, the majority of them, not all of them necessarily, but have

been players who, like, are talented, but they, they didn't necessarily see a path to

a whole lot of playing time, so you go somewhere you can get it, right? I didn't think that

was going to be the case for Dante Simpson. I expected him to play quite a bit this year.

So you're, you're getting a dog over there, and he's also got a good family. I remember

meeting Dante's dad at, like, parents day at one of Miami's practices last year. If,

if you ever see him around there to tell him, I say hello, because he's a really, just

a really sweet, like, animated, entertaining guy seems like a great dad. So I'm sorry

to see Dante go, but I think he's going to do big things over there.

Well, it's very encouraging to hear him. Missouri definitely could use that. I called him

this off season. I said, Hey, if he turns out to be a dude, I think he could be one of

the most, one of the biggest difference makers in the portal. You know, what I think

may have happened here is I think Missouri does a pretty good job of, of identifying defensive

line talent. And I feel like they just, they have a whole bunch of things they need to

replace on defense. I feel like they just decide we're going to spend more on the secondary

and bet on the guys that we have coming back on defensive line. We'll see if that pays

off. But to your point, sort of like Dante Simpson, you know, I think everybody found

Damon Wilson to be a very affable guy. Maybe he's a bit of a mercenary, but hey, an affable

mercenary at the very least. He's going to be a good player down, down in Miami. I can

promise you that. And by the way, hey, thanks for joining, thanks for joining me and Alex

today on the on the program. By the way, and if you want to join the every day or club,

this is your last chance to use the promo code March to get your first month free and

get in before the NCAA tournament tips off on Thursday. You can compete with both of

us in our men's and women's bracket pools on discord, the winner of each will get a hundred

bucks and locked on March. And as a member of a club, of course, you get an ad free

version of our programs as well. Again, it's all for free for a month with the code March

at locked on Mizzou dot supercast dot com or locked on canes dot supercast dot com. So

Alex spent a lot of fun, man. Thanks for joining me on this program. And until next time,

I'm John Miller. This is Alex Dono. And this has been locked on Mizzou and locked on

canes.