Russia ‘helps Iran smash $500m US base’s battlefield nerve centre’ & Ukraine seals historic 10-year Gulf defence pacts

The Telegraph

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I'm Francis Dernley and this is Ukraine, the latest. Today, as we learn the true extent

of the damage caused by Ukrainian strikes on the Baltic, we look at the stalling offensives

by both Russia and Ukraine on the ground before turning to President Zelensky's golf grand

tour, signing defense agreements to assist Middle Eastern countries in the war with Iran.

Then we hear about a row in Germany where the CEO of one of its biggest defense companies,

Ukrainian drones, are built by housewives. And here, whether it's possible for an EU member

state, like Hungary, to lose its voting rights and thereby unlock the 90 billion euro loan

to Kiev.

bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with victory.

The Russians is not what please.

First of all, we share with our help for Ukraine our freedom and our European values.

If I'm president, I will have that war settled in one day, 24 hours.

We are with you, not just today or tomorrow, but for a hundred years.

Nobody is going to break us. We are strong. Where are Ukrainians?

It's Monday, the 30th of March, four years and 34 days, since the full-scale invasion

began. And today, I'm joined by my co-host, Adely Poshman-Ponte, from Germany, our Berlin

correspondent James Rothwell, and from Belgium, our Brussels correspondent, Joe Barnes.

The first, the major ministry updates, from over the weekend.

So let's pick up where we left you last week, with Ukraine's long-range strike campaign

against Russia's oil export hubs in the Baltic, as they try to scupper Kremlin profits

from the war in Iran, with global oil prices now surpassing $116 per barrel.

Reuters reported last week that in a single attack, 40% oil export capacity for Russia

was knocked out. Now, we don't know how much of that is still offline, but the region

was hit four times over five consecutive nights last week, creating smoke plumes that could

be seen from Finland. Now, in new satellite pictures of Usluga

from last week, which handles some 18 million tons of fuel oil annually, thick curtains

of smog can be seen rising from a pulverized oil loading pier, while damage can also be

seen at the storage tanks and technical trestles. Local governors naturally insisted they've

been little damage to the facility. Good luck trying to convince the bosses of that

one. Now, there are reports and alleged footage showing Russian port workers watching

on unable to do anything, but the biggest sign that this has had a significant impact

is that Moscow is apparently preparing to temporarily suspend all gasoline exports as of April

1. Likely, in response to domestic gasoline price increases partly caused by these strikes.

The Khrushchev refinery, another of the site's hit, as we spoke about last week, was still

burning late on Friday. Now, despite this, because of the increased profit margins, it is

possible that despite being able to export less oil, there is still going to be a windfall

for the Kremlin. An incredible fact for you. Iran is now earning nearly twice as much

from oil sales each day as it did before the bomb started falling on February 28.

Now, just on Iran, President Slensky is still keen to underscore the degree of Russian

support for Tehran. On Saturday, he claimed Russia, already accused of sharing military

information and hardware, had taken satellite images of a Saudi base in the days before the

strike, which knocked out one of the $500 million American E3-century aircraft, a century

a battlefield nerves center that allows commanders to track everything that's going on in the

air. But again, no sign that this has had any shift in policy in Washington. But back

to the air war, last week, both Estonia and Latvia saw drones cross into their territory.

And on Sunday, Finland's President Stubb confirmed that they had experienced the same, saying

Ukrainian drones had strayed, and there is no military threat to Finland. Just note that

there is no condemnation there, as one might expect if these have been Russian drones.

Now, Helsinki also confirmed that amid fears of deliveries of weapon purchases by Kiev's

European allies via the Pearl Initiative may be being delayed, that they will now audit

US compliance with contracts. Ukraine enforces also reportedly struck a chemical plant in

Toliati in Russia's Samara oblast overnight, with flamingos and explosions were heard in

the southern Russian city of Taganrog, late on Saturday, killing one and injuring another

according to local authorities. Such is the impact of this campaign. The Kiev independent

reports that in a sign of just how far Moscow's war is being felt inside Russia. Bomb shelters

are now appearing more than 1,000 kilometers from Ukraine in the city of Chibokhsari. But

Russia carried out another massive strike against Ukraine on the night of March 28th to 29th,

striking a public recreation area and inflicting civilian casualties. The Ukrainian Air Force

reported one aerial ballistic missile and 442 drones. A desert was hit badly, killing

two and injuring at least 14, including a child. So two was the Donetsk region, with at

least three killed, including a 13-year-old boy. Seven were wounded by a Russian glide

attack on Kremlin Torsk, where Colin Freeman reported for us from recently. That happened

at noon. Now, turning to the front lines, more information and assessments are trickling

through from the Russian Spring Summer Offensive. Our friends at the ISW assess Russian forces

are struggling to advance any further on the northern part of Ukraine's fortress belt

near Slaviyansk, with attacks there stalling and Russian forces going now a week without

advancement. They write, Russian tactical gains could support offensive operations to

the north against Laman, or to the south against Constantinivka, but are insufficient for

a drive directly on Slaviyansk itself. Russian forces are reportedly waiting for weather

conditions to improve to intensify offensive operations near Kupiansk. A Ukrainian joint

forces task force spokesperson claimed that no more than 20 Russian service members remain

within Kupiansk, with assaults coming to their aid from the north and the east. Bikrosk

is also still seeing an uptick in operations. As for the Ukrainian push in the south following

the Starlink shutdown, it seems that the momentum has gone with no more advances reported. Although

some dramatic footage is doing the rounds of a Ukrainian tank attacking fixed positions

reportedly from near Hulipol, but we just don't know when this was taken.

And to wrap up, I reported last week on the casualty figures that Ukraine has calculated

they've incurred on Russian forces, over 1.2 million men, including the killed wounded

and missing. Now there's been another update from media zona and the BBC, these tend to

be quite periodic, of the number of Russians killed, using public sources such as obituris,

post-birellatives, regional media reports, and statements from local authorities. While

they believe the true figures are considerably higher, they have put the confirmed killed

at a minimum of 206,202 Russian military personnel dead, including 75,300 volunteers, 23,100

recruited prisoners, that's extraordinary high number, and 18,200 mobilized soldiers.

6,948 officers have also been confirmed killed. Now that is a brilliant piece of reporting.

I don't imagine how long and how difficult that evidence is to compile, so I highly recommend

you take a look at that in the show notes. But let's go now to the diplomatic realm with Adley,

Adley, where do you want to start? Thanks Francis. Well, let's first go to the Middle East, where

President Zelensky continues his Gulf Grand Tour. The Ukrainian President arrived today in Jordan,

where he's still playing keys drone expertise card and building support away from Washington

and from Europe. He stressed that Ukraine was doing its part in ensuring global security,

signing 10-year defense partnerships with no less than three Gulf countries in a matter of days.

As we left it on Friday, Ukraine had already signed the deal with Saudi Arabia,

later that day after our broadcast, another agreement was announced this time with Qatar,

and yet another deal should come through in the following days with the United Arab Emirates.

This comes after earlier in March, a Saudi Arabian arms company signed a deal to buy Ukrainian

made interceptor missiles, a more cost-efficient solution against Iranian Shahid drones

than the US Patriot missiles. A Patriot missile is worth approximately $1 million,

whereas Ukraine's drone interceptors are roughly worth $1,000 a piece, and they're also

much more efficient at countering drone barrage. Let's not forget that in the first days

of the war with Iran, more Patriot missiles have been fired from the Gulf than in all four years

of Ukraine's war. The worry is that at this rate, the stocks of air defense missiles will continue

to dwindle. Kiev has dropped hints that it hopes to swap Patriots for its interceptors.

It seems that Kiev, which has tightly controlled its weapon exports,

fearing that the technology would get stolen from them, is now shifting its approach.

These new partnerships will include co-production of weapons with factories in Ukraine and in the Gulf.

The deal also includes bringing Ukraine's military expertise to the region, which Kiev showcased

with roughly 200 anti-drone experts that have been deployed to the Middle East since the

beginning of the war with Iran. Zelensky met some yesterday. That will include training

programs by Ukraine's military, including in electronic warfare. The other part of the deal

focuses on energy cooperation, as Ukraine comes out of its hardest winter yet, and with all prices

skyrocketing with Iran's blockade of this rate of hormones, as Francis was just talking about.

You won't be surprised, Francis, but the Kremlin has offered an interesting response to the deals.

Right. On Telegram, Medvedev posted a bitter video where he compares Zelensky to a green insect

hopping around the Gulf countries. Right. I imagine that's cricket, probably. At least you didn't

attack Kyakales this time. And he also said that if American, and he also said that if American

bases couldn't protect his allies, how could, and I quote, a disappearing state do so?

Disappearing state being Ukraine. Disappearing state being Ukraine. Yes, absolutely. Yeah,

he's kind of anticipating a lot there, I think. Then he wonders where Zelensky will go on his next trip,

and he offers up two ideas. The drug dealing Mexican cartels, Tijuana, and Sinaloa.

He also implies that Zelensky may be a regular drug user. Oh, we've heard that one before.

Drug-addled Nazis, I've seen to recall from the first year of the war,

was a phrase they always used to band around. Sensei. Now, I'm not really sure how the

Gulf countries would feel about being equated with drug cartels. I don't know how diplomatically

that's going to be received. Bold move there. So that's Medvedev up to his usual tricks.

Of course, Zelensky may also hope that the Gulf countries could take over mediation effort

with Russia, especially as the US seem less interested in pursuing the trilateral talks

with the war in Iran and the kind of dead end that it's reached. Zelensky cited intelligence

reports on Friday saying that Russian satellites acting in the interest of Iran had been surveying

US military facilities in the Middle East and in the Gulf region. Here's the list for last week,

just so you get an idea of the scale. On March 24th, it was the American British base

Diego Garcia in the Chegos Islands in the Indian Ocean. They also conducted surveillance

on Kuwait International Airport and parts of the oil industry in the Greater Bergen field.

Then on March 25th, Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, where the plane was hit a few days

later as you were just talking about Francis. Really significant operation that. And on March 26,

the Shaba oil and gas field still in Saudi Arabia, the Injurly Air Base in Turkey and the

Al-Udid Air Base in Qatar. So all of the countries that Zelensky has been, or apart from Turkey,

signing deals with. And in two instances, where Iran and drones then attacked a few days later,

which I think is very noteworthy. As discussed, it's now confirmed that Russia is sending

a shipment of drones as well, including upgraded versions of the technology that Iran originally

supplied to Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine. So, upgraded Shahid drones that Russia has been

making domestically. It's still unknown whether the shipment is a one-time deal or part of a

bigger series, and it's also known the exact number of drones, although one European official

said that, I quote, it would not have a major impact on the outcome of the war.

President Trump has so far been dismissive of these reports. You'll remember that at the

beginning of March, Russia had denied sharing any intelligence with Tehran, and that Steve

Whitkov had insisted, I quote, we can take them at their word. Let's hope they're not sharing.

Seems like that didn't age well. The latest on this is that Trump says Russian

intelligence makes no difference in Iran's ability to strike back at the US. And that brings us

state side to another row between Zelensky and the US administration. Marco Rubio, the US Secretary

of State, accused President Zelensky of lying at the end of last week. He claimed it was

untrue that Ukraine was being pressured to withdraw from Donbass by the US in order to obtain

security guarantees. Here's the full quote from Rubio. That's a lie, and I saw him, him being

Zelensky say that, and it's unfortunate he would say that because he knows that's not true,

and that's not what he was told. What he was told is the obvious security guarantees are not

going to kick in until there's an end to the war because otherwise you're in, you're getting

yourself involved in the war. He continued, we told the Ukrainian side what the Russians are insisting

on. We're not advocating for it. We've explained it to them. It's their choice to make. It's not for

us to make it for them. We've never told them they have to take it or leave it. The role we have

played is to try and figure out what both sides want and see if we can bridge the middle ground.

Zelensky responded in a press conference last Friday, a couple of days later. He didn't

contradict Rubio's statement, but insisted that what Russia offered was an ultimatum.

Within the framework of the current negotiations, Ukraine's withdrawal from Donbass was the

I quote, necessary conditions to reach the end of the war, and that US security guarantees would

not kick in until then. So let's wait and see what consequences this latest disagreement has on

Ukraine's relationship with the US and whether any talks are being organized with Russia in the

next few weeks. That's it for me for us. Well, thanks very much, Adely, for those updates. Let's go now

to Germany, where there's been quite a considerable row that's broken out in the last couple of days

involving Rhine Mattel. James, welcome back. Always a pleasure to have you on the podcast,

dialing in. Philosin, what's been going on? Hello, Francis. Yes, it's quite a big row and a nasty

row at that Rhine Mattel, Germany's biggest defense firm, has been embroiled really in a public

relations crisis after Armin Papager, the CEO of Rhine Mattel, belittled the efforts of Ukrainian

drone producers, when asked about the innovation that Ukrainian drone makers have shown in this war,

he compared them to children playing with Lego, and he also compared them to housewives working

in kitchens. Now, this is understandably caused an absolute stink in Ukraine. There's a lot of

outrage, not just because we've seen the evidence all for ourselves of just how formidable the

Ukrainian drone program is, but this is a case of an absolutely massive voice in the European

defense industry, one of the biggest voices, by the way, kind of belittling, sort of making fun

of mocking humiliating even Ukrainian drone producers, while they are innovating at the same time as

fighting a war. So you've got people from the prime minister of Ukraine and senior advisor to

President Zelensky, and a whole array of Ukrainian defense chief executives over the past 24 hours

weighing in, they're saying that this was a sign of disrespect to their drone makers, and they've

asked Rhine Mattel to address those comments that it made earlier. Now, Rhine Mattel has tried to

do a bit of damage control, an issued a tweet on Sunday, which said it did acknowledge and

recognized the massive contribution that Ukrainian drone producers have made, but unfortunately,

Francis, the damage might have been done, really, in terms of the reputation to Rhine Mattel when

it comes to the way that it speaks of some of its colleagues in the European defense industry.

Well, Dom's already changed his Twitter bio to pronouns, fella slash housewife as a consequence

of this, and I'm looking at some of the reaction to it. So, President Zelensky's got involved. He

said, if every housewife in Ukraine really can produce drones, then every housewife could be the

CEO of Rhine Mattel. Pretty punty for me, I mean, he was a former comedian, of course, but I also

notes an interesting critique here by the chief and staff of the defense of Mariu Pol, obviously

famous battle from the first year of the war. He said, would it really make sense to date to

argue that something is not innovative simply because it is a modification of an existing principle?

Ukrainian drones are not a revolution at the level of physics or materials, but they are a revolution

at the level of application, scaling and adaptability. The historical parallel is clear. The army

of Genghis Khan did not invent the bow as a concept, but it brought it to a use that provided

a strategic advantage and enabled the conquest of vast territories. Would it make sense to dismiss

that as non-innovative simply because it was based on an existing principle? So, it feels like

this is going to be a route that's going to run James. I mean, how is it being received in the

German press? Are people generally outraged by this? Or is there some agreement with it?

Well, I wouldn't say that the Germans necessarily outraged, except, of course, those who support

Ukraine, of which there are a great many. We haven't yet, at the time of recording, seen the

German government have to wade in on this. One fears that perhaps they may, considering that we've

now got President Zelensky, as you said himself, commenting on this rather unedifying series of

remarks that Mr. Papago made. I think it is worth putting his remarks into context, not

necessarily to sort of defend them, but to show where Ryan Mattel is coming at this issue from.

It's a tank producer among other things, and it's a company under Mr. Papago's leadership,

which has been quite dismissive of the idea of drones as a kind of agent of strategic change

in a war. It's a company that is very critics might say old-fashioned. It takes the view that,

you know, your long-range missiles, your tanks, your kind of conventional battlefield

fighting weapons are what you should be focusing your efforts on. And there may be some in the

European industry who in a very limited way might agree with this comment. And I'm talking about

those who feel that sometimes the debate on European defence gets too hung up on drones,

and not enough time is spent talking about if you like the bread and butter of defence, which is,

of course, the air defence, the long-range missiles, the tanks, the infantry fighting vehicles,

and so on. That's something that Joe Barnes might put the way in on, because I know we've talked

about this issue a lot between the two of us. It's certainly the case in some NATO circles,

Joe will know much more about this than me, that there is, for example, skepticism of the idea

that you just need drones, you know, to win a war these days. I think that may have been what

the Ryan Mattel CEO was driving at when he kind of made those comments. He's made similar comments

before about his drone-producing rivals in Germany for defence contracts. But you're quite

right, Francis. I mean, this was a sort of totally kind of very much, it's looking like an

unforced error, really, especially because the whole sort of origin of this story was an interview

with the Atlantic magazine with the headline, Building Tanks, while the Ukrainians master drones.

In other words, it was an article which was supposed to really be about the difference in priorities,

where you've got the tanks being built in Germany, so this article argues, and then you've got

the Ukrainians focused on drones. I don't think the intention here was to publish a big dramatic

interview that would trigger a public relations crisis with the leaders of Ukraine, but here we are,

unfortunately. Well, thank you very much for talking us through that story, Joe. I'm going to

come back to you for more on Germany in a moment, but since you were talking about Joe, I'm going

to bring Joe in here. Joe, what do you want to add to this? As James says, there is a rouse

discussions going on in Europe at the moment about whether too much emphasis has been made on

drones. I know you've done a lot of work on this area. Yeah, hi folks, I could be back and see you

all. It's really interesting, right? Because you've got a situation where, and I almost compare it to

when we say they're people speaking, let's call them the defense dinosaurs, who aren't, and

Rhymetel makes some brilliant bits of kits and lethal weapons. There's no doubt about it,

but while they're very good at that, they are sort of fixed in one way of doing war,

and actually, I probably shouldn't say this, but I was once in the presence of a German general,

and we were having this very conversation, this was a couple of years ago now,

when we were speaking about what do we do as a Western military group about the prospect of

and the proliferation of drones being used by an enemy, an adversary, and they were like,

oh, don't you worry, we've got, when you bring everything NATO has together, so your fighter jets,

your missiles, your tanks, your arm and fighting vehicles, he's not going to give a don't worry,

we've got it. But I think what has become abundantly clear, and as drones continue to evolve,

and as that evolution really does get written drawn up into a new doctrine for war, let's go back

to, was it last May, when Ukraine played the red team in a NATO exercise in Estonia, and after

about 12 hours of fighting, they're destroyed 17 to 20 NATO vehicles, war is done slightly

differently now, and I think we're actually seeing this in, in the Middle East, we've seen

FPV drones being used to fly around and destroy some pretty big and expensive bits of kit,

so I think the head of Rhyme Mattel will be sort of more useful if he was actually acknowledging

that drones do have a role to play, rather than I guess what being what he is, and trying to sell

his product, he's a salesman, right? Well, thanks very much, Joe, I'll come back to you

in a minute, some questions to ask you, particularly about whether it's possible for Hungary to be

blocked in its voting rights, this is an issue that's been risen very much to the top of the

agenda in recent days, but James, before we go to that subject, a couple more from you,

we've obviously been speaking about Germany a lot recently given its ramping up of support for

Ukraine since Friedrich Merz became chancellor, but he's also been very vocal interestingly

around the war in Iran in terms of being critical of the approach that's been adopted by

President Trump. I wonder if you can just speak to that and the ramifications of that for

potentially Washington's relationship with NATO and vice versa?

Yes, that's right, Francis, so actually at the start of this war, Friedrich Merz emerged as

the biggest pro-Trump voice in Europe. He actually rebuked fellow Germans and other countries for

debating the question of whether or not the war in Iran was within the confines of international

law when it started. He said now is not the time to criticize our allies, meaning Israel

and the United States as they tackle a regime that Germany obviously loaves and would like to see

the end of. As the war has progressed and it has become more and more clear that this war is

absolutely not going in the direction that even the Americans want to see it go in, let alone

the Europeans as a kind of outside observer. Mr Merz has, what I want to say, he's

tempered his initial, shall we say, support of the war, but he's really kind of moved quite

aggressively in the other direction. He has said that the US administration has no plan

on how to end this war. We are talking about a German Chancellor who began as a cheerleader

for this war, but he's now starting to become one of the most critical voices on it. Now,

I think this speaks to some quite complex relations in Germany which relate more to its

instinctive support of Israel, perhaps, than its support of the United States.

It views like Israel, the Iranian regime as an existential threat, particularly as both countries

believe that it was getting much closer to a crying nuclear weapons. That, I think, is what was

driving Friedrich Merz's initial, I won't say optimism because he also said at the start of

the war that it was important to know what the day after in Iran looks like, but nevertheless

Friedrich Merz is, if you like, encouragement and tacit support of the war. I think the strong

support for Israel influenced that. Now, we're seeing another sort of further deterioration of

the transatlantic relationship. It's painful for Friedrich Merz. He's a classic Christian

Democrat transatlanticist. He loves the Americans. Also, that used to be the case. Under the Trump

administration, he has, I mean, actually almost immediately after winning the election all the way back

in February 2025, you know, Mr. Merz straight out the gate was talking about the need, for example,

European defense and security to become independent, basically, of the United States. We've seen

a big deterioration in relations. It's probably going to get much worse before it gets better as well.

And I think that, you know, how is this playing? You might ask politically at home. Well,

Germans on the whole, I think, are incredibly pro-Israel, but they also really don't want to see

interminable wars, especially wars that might risk sucking in potentially German troops.

So this is a complicated issue, I think, for lots of German voters. Instinctively, many of them,

because of that strong pro-Israel mindset, we'll see what the Israelis and the Americans said

just before launching the war and immediately after. And say, well, clearly they will say this

was a necessary war. They would perhaps have supported it. We've even seen the hard-right

alternative for Germany party, that right-wing super pro-Trump populist party, criticizing the

Trump administration over this war. They've even gone as far as saying they've now liked to see

American soldiers leave Germany. And when you've got a political situation in Germany where even the

ultra-pro-Trump populist rights is kind of queuing up to criticize this war, you've got a serious

problem. Extraordinary. Well, thank you very much for talking us through that, James. Just before

we go to Joe, there's one other subject I want us to cover together. And this is you putting your

Belarus hat on. This is another country that I know you've followed very closely and spoken

about with us before. And there's been some developments here, James. Yes, that's right. Well,

picture the scene, if you will. It's a wonderful North Korean regime, palace in Pyongyang.

Two leaders are there. You have got Kim Jong Un rolling out the red carpet for Alexander

Lukashenko. They sort of pad around these lovely majestic carpeted rooms and they get to a reception

area where things suddenly get very interesting. Kim Jong Un is presented with a automatic rifle

by a Belarusian dictator Lukashenko. And as Kim Jong Un does a kind of the mimicry of a kind of

reloading gesture as he's holding the rifle, Lukashenko jokes, this is for you in case enemies appear

and the two have a jolly good chortle and then they move on to another table and on that table

we can see a sort of ceramic vase mosaic thing which has got the Belarusian president's face on it

and that was prepared for him by the by the North Koreans. Now if the scene that I've just

described to you Francis sounds deeply surreal, that's because it was. This was a bilateral meeting

between Lukashenko and Kim Jong Un and it's part of that deepening security alliance that we're seeing

between Russia, Belarus, China and North Korea. That machine gun that I was mentioning earlier

to be specific automatic rifle that I think was a very clear sign of the kind of flavor of this

meeting. It was described as an opportunity to sign a friendship treaty between these two countries

but the fact that an automatic weapon is being given as one of the main gifts I think really speaks

to the underlying purpose of it which is deepening security ties. We know that the North Koreans

have played an active role in Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine. They've put troops in Russia to

fight against Ukraine. We know about the hybrid war campaign that Belarus has been waging on.

The West kind of in tandem with Russia's wider hybrid war campaign just to cite one recent

example that we did some reporting Belarus hiring experts from the Middle East to build these

secret tunnels that go under Belarus and to Poland that they've been sending migrants through in

order to undermine European border security. They're cooperating much more now on defence.

To Ukrainian observers that of course is quite alarming. Indeed. Well particularly so because President

Trump has posted on truth social over the last I think 24 hours or so. A message praising

Lukashenko saying that he's got 250 more political prisoners freed. I would like to give my warmest

thank you to the president for doing this and look forward to being with him at the next

board of peace meeting. So very very warm words between the two leaders despite the fact that

Belarus as you say is very much escalating its involvement in its relationships with North

Korea and with Russia. And of course was a staging post for the full-scale invasion

lest we forget. So quite extraordinary developments there. But Joe going back to you now and still staying

in the EU context. We've had questions from multiple listeners particularly on on YouTube. We've

also had this in the inbox and on Spotify as well. So thank you all very much for writing in.

And this is a key question for the moment. As you'll know I released a documentary on Hungary on

Friday. We'll add the link to that in the show notes again. And it really raises this point about

the 90 billion euro loan and the fact that Hungary is freezing that and may freeze it even if

all-bound loses and almost certainly will continue freezing it if he wins for the foreseeable future.

So people are naturally asking is there a way in which that can be stopped in which Hungary

can lose its voting rights within the EU? Joe is there. Yeah well thanks for the question guys.

I sort of burst with excitement when Francis mentioned that you've been writing into ask about the EU.

I will start with proposing as well James Chris Bell,

colleague Telegraph's Europe editor wrote a really fascinating piece basically looking at Peter

Maigar who is the politician running against Victor Orban who could win and inside that feature what

it means for Ukraine as well. I suggest that you go away read that I'm sure Francis can make

sure that's dropped in the show notes as well because essentially not to ruin James's peace it

talks about Peter Maigar's time when he was working as a civil servant for the Hungarian

government in Brussels and he was nicknamed baby Orban by some of his European counterparts so

it's not all smooth sailing. But anyway to your brilliant question what can the European Union do

should Hungary continue to flap the rules? Let's rewind back to September 2018 I was relatively

new in Brussels and the European Parliament triggered what is known as article 7 of the founding

treaties of the EU. Basically article 7 you asked what is this show is the nuclear button

that basically is meant to be used as the last result by the European Union for ensuring

that his founding values are respected by its member states and I've just got a list here on my

on my notes of these values and they are freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law,

respect for human rights including the rights of persons belonging to minorities.

But it is essentially article 7 is essentially a paper tiger. It comes in two phases to sort of

excuse my nerdery here you have article 7 open bracket one closed bracket it's not particularly

hard to trigger the European Commission can do it off its own back the European Parliament as it

was the case for Hungary can do it and then member states and I believe it's one third of member states

if they club together can trigger it and this is basically a slap on the wrist to tell a country

that look we think you're from out in the rules we think that you need to get your house in order

stop breaching these rules and look at all these beautiful things you get from EU membership

in Hungary's case it gets billions and billions in cohesion funds which have been used to sort of

basically prop up the country's public services for a long time but also help attract

businesses like I think Samsung is one of the has a battery factory in the country which is

massively important for his industry so look that's article 7.1 then point two is the actual nuclear

option and that is where the punishment comes such as and I think the main one people speak about

is the removal of voting rights basically allows EU member states to say in Hungary's case

you're not voting on EU issues anymore because you don't deserve that you've been punished

but this is the problem and I've actually got this on my nose as well because it's very hard

to understand why this is hard to reach so first of all you need to have a unanimous decision

by all of the EU member states to enter article 7.2 every country excluding the one being put

into the article 7 measures so now it would be 26 plus one in Hungary's case that for various

reasons is based not very easy because why I think a lot of countries back the idea of hungry

being sanctioned they also look into a future crystal ball and see a situation where hungry might

end up being France or Germany or the Netherlands and it doesn't take that many countries to start

ganging up on someone they don't agree with so I don't think a well Turkey's don't vote for

Christmas do they and I that's why I don't think an EU member state is going to vote for article 7

then even if we did get to that unanimous decision you then need to find what is known as a

qualified majority so that's 55% of EU member states but those states have to be representing

65% of the total population of the EU and that is the decision of what comes with this punishment

so we've essentially we'd never really reached that stage because I think member states are scared

of it one day happening to them so could this debate over articles ever reemerge for the loan

to Ukraine yes certainly but also I think there is basically a shield for governments to hang

and hide behind and that is does anyone want to be seen to be interfering in domestic politics and

domestic affairs in the build up to this election that Viktor Orbán would be the first politician to

jump on that bank wagon and say look what Brussels is doing it's interfering it's stopping you from

having a democratic decision then I think there's another one that we've sort of looked at as

well in that is could the debate reemerge as a result of these allegations surrounding the Hungarian

foreign minister and him essentially being accused of leaking key details directly from EU

discussions to his Russian counterpart yet again look potentially but it's also really hard to

prove and I just don't think any EU member states are going to move without basically conclusive

evidence and then even then I'm sure that people and governments wouldn't vote for that because I'm

sure that Ursula von der Leyen would often pick up the phone to secure Starmer and debrief him

on Ukraine based discussions have they done the same with Donald Trump and the American administration

there's so many many little things you have to look at to understand why the EU member states

are a little bit terrified of punishing Hungary but my main reading of the situation is because one

day they think Hungary could be a never member state which is them that's very interesting Joe

well thank you so what does this basically mean then so if we can't see article seven being triggered

and we also can't see in the short term it being likely that Orbán will permit the 90 billion

to go through certainly not before the election but almost certainly sometime after the election

either if he wins and neither can we necessarily see Petra Magia doing that either for all of the

reasons that you just referred to so what options does the EU have I mean we are talking about here

a country that cannot survive sometimes people are saying it's only got weeks to go if it doesn't

get that loan so what options are on the table is it bilateral Joe I mean what are people talking

about over there so at the last meeting of EU leaders which was not last week the week before

I actually spoke to a few sort of senior diplomats before and I said look what's a plan B and they

were like we don't really have a plan B it's plan A and that loan I think a lot of them are hiding

behind the fact that the IMF has guaranteed Ukraine some money before so maybe that April date

that people were speaking about being that sort of cliff edge for Ukrainian funding can be

sort of eased because of this money from the IMF but ultimately again the situation is

Hungary's veto isn't really there to be moved it requires the unanimous decision from all EU

member states hungry it has been they're being told and accused of breaking the rules for sincere

cooperation and friendly alliances and etc etc that apparently exist within the EU treaties

but I then said can you just to one diplomat can you not just ignore what Hungary says

you've got their political go ahead from bit to all ban at the summit in December last year he's

got the opt out why don't you just do it but they're like well the European commission would

essentially have to rip up the treaties and ride rush short over them and they are not willing to

do that and we're also not willing for the commission to do that because as soon as the commission

do that in this case that sets a precedent for them doing it in other cases when member states

want to roll them back and let's talk non-Ukraine issue let's talk about very domestic issues on

well taxation or something like that so again until vix raw ban basically to summit that he's

going to let this money go through it's not going to leave Brussels and then we're going to have

to start speaking and start the restart conversations about bridging loans where you like you say

like bilateral options or is is Germany going to have to foot the bill for a large portion of that

because it has the biggest economy in Europe and then it will be like left to sit out when the EU

money starts flowing and stuff like that and then one of the other ones is I was actually reading

a little bit see if I missed any think over the weekend and there lots of people and experts

seem to be saying oh we need to change the EU's rules to make decisions on foreign policy security

and defence basically move those decisions to qualify at majority rather than unanimous

but what would that require to do that a unanimous decision and Viktor Orbansson have been going

to vote for that but also lots of other EU leaders wouldn't vote for that because they like the fact

they have a veto over foreign policy decided in Brussels so it's basically a whole lot of red tape

and a lot of leaders I would say hiding behind Viktor Orbans on certain decisions that is blocking

Ukraine one from getting his money and be from the EU basically being transformed from a clumsy

super tanker when it comes to quick decisions to a nimble speed boat yeah well thank you very

much Joe for talking us through this I mean this is so so critical because it will be an absolute

gift to Moscow if it doesn't go through the EU mechanisms and it has to be done by other countries

independently like Germany because of course that then makes it a domestic issue in those countries

people saying I'm unhappy that I'm having to put the bill me as a taxpayer having to put the bill

for a failure in Brussels it becomes a political issue then that becomes something that can be

debated contested helps build friction around the war in Ukraine because it's suddenly impacting

your wallets now of course it is in a sense if you're an EU member already impacting your wallets

but it feels less tangible somehow when it's just in a big pot in the EU but when it's actually your

government's having to pay for it it becomes complicated and controversial potentially which is

why we keep returning to this I've just got an eye on the clock so let's go to our final thoughts

now Adley where do you want to start you got some thoughts on that Joe quickly on article 7 has

it ever been triggered has any country in the European Union ever been banned from voting and

in conclusion to all of what you just explained is it just since the beginning of the invasion of

Ukraine where a lot of it comes down to political cowardness in the end let's start from the

beginning of the question article 7 has been triggered in that first format article 7.1 twice

hungry in September 2018 and just before that Poland both countries were accused of flouting the

rule of law and I believe there were some LGBT issues put in there as well basically again not

respecting the rights of those communities Poland exited those measures in 2024 when Donald

Tusk was elected as its prime minister those measures were basically removed because he

removed the laws that prompted those measures but hungry still sits in that first bracket of

article 7 but not yet in the bracket of where the punishment comes and that has never that has never

been reached

howdy howdy ho and welcome to fantasy fanfellas i'm Hayden producer of the fantasy

fangirls podcast and your resident lover of all things sanderson and i'm steven your bookish

internet goofball but you can call me the smash daddy and we are currently deep diving

Brandon sanderson's fantasy epic misborn but here's the catch steven here has not read

misborn before that's right hey hey so each week you'll get my unfiltered raw reactions to every

single chip and along the way we'll do character deep dives magic explainers and steven will even

try to guess what's next spoiler alert he'll be wrong news flash i'm never wrong episodes come out

every Wednesday and you can find fantasy fanfellas wherever you get your podcasts hey this is Adam

grand host of teds podcast rethinking with the adam grand let me share with you why smart

finance leaders turned a bill they know that clarity isn't just helpful it's strategic as the

intelligent finance platform bill uses a i to automate the busy work for nearly half a million

businesses so they can focus on intentional growth eliminate the friction and start scaling with

the proven choice visit bill dot com slash proven to talk with an expert about automating your

business finances and get a two hundred fifty dollar gift card is a thank you that's bill dot com

slash proven terms and conditions apply see offer page for details

okay caller one wins court side seats to tonight's game what i want floor seats you did i've been

calling for 13 months wait Chris yes i finally did it what are you gonna wear men's warehouse

they've got today's looks for any occasion and i need to look like a celebrity don't want to stick

out exactly they've got chill flex by Kenneth Cole Joseph a boot and a tailor at every store for

the perfect thing congrats you can stop calling now not a chance get any look for every occasion at

men's warehouse love the way you look james where would you like to leave listeners today

well i think i'll end on this note frances let's see what happens with this terrible PR crisis

basically for Ryan the town they've put out a tweet on sunday afternoon in an attempt to make it

all go away basically will it work or could this be the beginning of a kind of 2022 style diplomatic

dust up between these two countries germany and ukraine we saw lots of those under the shots

government free drink meds since he's taken power there's been barely any so are we sort of backsliding

into that more fractious relationship let's see well thanks very much james for your final thoughts

adly where would you like to leave this is today well you know i'm not a housewife per me being in

the studio but i i'm going to take a stand there and say that it's also very insulting to house

wives everywhere and especially if you think about the world were two efforts where hundreds of

thousands of women in the uk across europe join factories and contributed to the war efforts

there are thousands of women who have joined the ukraine army there are thousands of women probably

building drones in various capacities in ukraine where there are small workshops like we visited or

bigger factories so this is insulting on so many levels for so many different people and it is

disregarding a lot of how war is fought and potentially won it speaks to a total misunderstanding

of what total war really looks like yeah which is ironic in in in the circumstances but

it's improved misogyny as well well indeed well thanks very much adly and let's go to joe for

your final thoughts i'm going to introduce you to our new brussels bureau mascot which is my

little duck the drone pilot which was only donated by the good folk skyfall drones after i met them

at a recent defense conference in brussels and yeah he now sits prior to place on my desk with my other

ukraine merch but yeah it's just a little cute duck named shryk which is the name of their fpv drone

which is also equipped with fiber optics there we go he looks great well i think people will be

looking out for him in uh in your future broadcast so i'm going to find a uh a place so he can

sit above my shoulder it wasn't possible for the day

ukraine the latest is an original podcast from the telegraph created by david nulls

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produced by Rachel Porter executive producers are francis d'Earnley Louisa Wells and david nulls

my name is david nulls thank you all for listening goodbye

howdy howdy ho and welcome to fantasy fanfellas i'm heyden producer of the fantasy

fangirls podcast and your resident lover of all things sanderson and i'm steven your bookish

internet goofball but you can call me the smash daddy and we are currently deep diving

Brandon sanderson's fantasy epic mishborn but here's the catch steven here has not read mishborn

that's right hey hey so each week you'll get my unfiltered raw reactions to every single

chip and along the way we'll do character deep dives magic explainers and steven will even try

to guess what's next spoiler alert he'll be wrong news flash i'm never wrong episodes come out

every wednesday and you can find fantasy fanfellas wherever you get your podcasts

hey this is adam gran host of teds podcast rethinking with adam gran let me share with you why smart

finance leaders turn to bill they know that clarity isn't just helpful it's strategic as the

intelligent finance platform bill uses a i to automate the busy work for nearly half a million

businesses so they can focus on intentional growth eliminate the friction and start scaling

with the proven choice visit bill dot com slash proven to talk with an expert about automating

your business finances and get a two hundred fifty dollar gift card is the thank you that's bill

dot com slash proven turns and conditions apply see offer page for details