S2025 Ep249: LIVE: Mortgage Rates, Jobs Report Shock & Oil Spike — What Happens Next? PART 1

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Hey folks, Dan Frill here with your real estate news.

Thank you so much for joining me.

Please check your volume.

I know the music I have is really loud.

So then when I usually start talking, people can't hear me.

So check your volume through there.

Let me know if we're okay.

But we got some breaking news.

I basically had all my stuff formatted to go over.

And what was happening so far this week.

And then we now had, I just saw it on, see some more over there.

Is the Trump administration now says they are found in insurance company.

Or they're going to ensure tankers through the straight of her moves.

And this is probably going to open up the shipping lanes for oil.

And we know we got a glut oil sitting there.

So once the oil hits, that's probably going to drop oil prices.

So I was sitting here and I'm thinking, okay, why all of a sudden I'm going through the dismal report we had this morning on jobs.

I'll get to that in a second.

But all of a sudden I'm looking at the bond market.

Yeah, I start seeing this.

I'm like, what in the heck's going on?

Because we have all this bad news.

And mainstream media is pumping the heck out of this.

But look over here, we just got another dot.

This means mortgage rates are coming down right now.

Okay, so here's what we follow folks.

If you're new to me, we'll get to this in a second.

But you just look at those numbers up through there.

If they're green, that's good.

That means mortgage rates are coming down.

The bigger the number, the bigger the adjustment.

So this plus five might not seem like much.

But it's a big move from where we were.

So what's going on?

Well, let's get over it.

Let's kind of recap what I want to do is recap the week.

And where we were last Friday.

And then where we are this Friday and the kind of in between.

And then I'm going to show you some reports.

And then I don't want to get political.

I don't want to get this even religious anything.

I'm just, I'm here to post the data for you.

I love the new acronym we kind of have for our channel.

The rate updates were having true.

So I just want to give you true information.

That's all I'm trying to do.

So let me know if you guys can hear me.

I'm going to check my chats over through here.

Volume is good.

So thank you so much on that.

So let's go.

Let's recap.

Last Friday rates were at 5.99.

Now I was visiting my mom.

And I wasn't able to post a video.

But we had some good reports out.

And the rates came down and it was like, okay.

And we had over the last between last Friday and Monday.

We had about 400 plus people trigger on our rate watch tool.

So if you don't know what I'm talking about,

I'll get to that later as well.

But then almost on over the weekend, there was the honey.

How do you want to phrase it?

The unrest in the Middle East.

Some call it a war call it whatever you want.

But there's there's stuff going on.

And that popped rates up.

The markets start freaking out.

Mainstream media is helping this as well.

So what I want to do.

Let's get over to see where the stock market is right now.

And it's coming back a little bit.

Okay.

Downfalls 500 points after Trump comments.

Spike oil.

But this is post.

Let me see if I can redo this.

Here it is right up through here.

20 billion dollar reinsurance program for oil tankers

during Iran war.

This is huge.

So I'm going to stay on here for a second.

You might start seeing these things get a little bit better.

But let's go over to oil right over here.

You're going to see the VIX.

What the VIX is is this is the anxiety level on Wall Street.

It's plus three and it's at 27.

Okay.

Sorry.

You can't see it.

But this is usually like 12.

Okay.

This is double where it should be or more.

And yeah.

There's panic out there.

But let's get over.

Even the markets are reacting.

So that insurance just came through.

So we're going to check oil prices.

We're at 90 bucks.

So we're going to watch this.

So it's $91 a barrel right now.

We're going to tag that $91 a barrel.

Okay.

Before I start going on through this.

I got this is this basically shows dedicated to two friends of mine.

One is Rick helps.

He's a he's a YouTuber out there.

And he's out in Arizona.

He's a realtor.

He's having some health problems, folks.

So check out his channel.

He's like, he's a great guy.

I apologize.

I was supposed to reach out to him this week.

I had cataract surgery and other things.

And then my buddy Mike T.

You know, I'm talking about Mike up in New York.

His mother passed away last weekend.

And I wasn't able to get reach out to him.

Mike.

So my apologies on that.

And God bless your brother.

And I'm here for you when you get back from everything.

So I wanted to talk about that.

And also one other piece of the puzzle.

I want to show you guys where go over with you.

Because I want to give you a break in news.

The unemployment numbers today were horrible.

Let's see if I can get you to some numbers.

So here's what the market did on the bond market.

Here's basically the headlines everywhere.

Let's get over it here.

Here's what happens.

I'm going to give you the jobs report and all the economic news in a second.

Let's just get over it.

Let me show you what historically,

just over the last six, seven years.

If we had conflicts in the Middle East,

here's what normally happened.

And we'll kind of pattern it to what's happening right now.

So this is 2020.

This we had a strike.

The immediate stock reaction was down almost a percent.

Within 30 days, it went up 3%.

That was good for that.

2024 stock market down 1.2% for that.

Ended up 4%.

In the February escalation,

down 1% still in progress.

But the unique thing is we start seeing,

usually you'll see mortgage rates kind of react in the opposite way,

but we see mortgage rates actually jump up.

So what normally happens is when people freak out here,

they push all their money on to the bond market.

Okay, so I want you to visualize this.

You have a million bucks and you're in the stock market.

The things things are just going to start to crash.

So you take your money out and you buy bonds,

because you want to invest in something.

And just to make sure your money's making your money.

But right now you're thinking, okay,

the bond market's not a great way to go,

because of this tariff stuff going on.

We got oil.

Now oil is going to spike $900 a barrel.

I don't know.

So inflation's going to jack up from here.

But how long?

So mainstream media is making this seem like it's going to be,

oil prices are going to be $100 a barrel forever.

What you have right now is you have tankers

by the millions backed up right now,

because of waiting for this insurance.

So this is a game changer.

So we might see a kind of a pretty quick reaction of this,

but you got to remember last week we had rates at $5.99.

Treasure yields right now are teetering at $4.1.

We had oil prices.

This is, I just made this an hour ago.

And it's now at $95 a barrel.

You go through here.

Now here's the news we got today.

Let's get over to the economic calendar for the day in the week.

So this is what we got this week.

I want you guys to let me know,

because the Federal Reserve is going to meet in 12 days.

We'll have a live event, because I love showing you guys

how the markets instantly react to this stuff.

But here's the data we got this week.

You let me know.

Let me know in the chats.

After this, give me a thumbs up or whatever.

We're going to go over some manufacturing numbers.

The jobs report numbers before today's numbers on the jobs report.

And let's look at the numbers and see what that data tells us.

And then we also, hopefully, you look at corporate returns

on our earnings hub.com.

I won't get to that right now.

But let's go through this week.

And then we're going to look at next week,

because that's the last piece of information we're going to get

between now and when the Federal Reserve meets in two weeks

or we can have.

So let's get Monday.

Here's what we got.

Manufacturing PMI.

You might not understand these,

but I'll pull out the ones that really made them a big move.

And I'll tell you what they are.

So manufacturing PMI steady.

51 to 51.

You got manufacturing PMI right there here.

This is ISM and so forth.

52 to 52.

Manufacturing prices.

I don't really have to explain this one to you.

It went from 59, supposed to go to 60.

I was expecting that with my January effect.

It jumped to 70.

You're like, whoa.

And this was before this oil stuff.

So if you have prices at the manufacturing level going up that high,

what does that mean to inflation?

Let's keep going through the week.

They say if you want to go fast, go alone.

But if you want to go far, go together.

At Amika Insurance, we know what matters most to you.

And we work even harder to protect it together.

As a mutual insurance company,

we're built for our customers and prioritize your needs.

Amika Empathy is our best policy.

Visit amika.com and get a quote today.