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Hey folks, Dan Frill here with your real estate news.
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Thank you so much for joining me.
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Please check your volume.
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I know the music I have is really loud.
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So then when I usually start talking, people can't hear me.
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So check your volume through there.
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Let me know if we're okay.
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But we got some breaking news.
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I basically had all my stuff formatted to go over.
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And what was happening so far this week.
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And then we now had, I just saw it on, see some more over there.
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Is the Trump administration now says they are found in insurance company.
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Or they're going to ensure tankers through the straight of her moves.
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And this is probably going to open up the shipping lanes for oil.
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And we know we got a glut oil sitting there.
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So once the oil hits, that's probably going to drop oil prices.
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So I was sitting here and I'm thinking, okay, why all of a sudden I'm going through the dismal report we had this morning on jobs.
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I'll get to that in a second.
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But all of a sudden I'm looking at the bond market.
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Yeah, I start seeing this.
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I'm like, what in the heck's going on?
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Because we have all this bad news.
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And mainstream media is pumping the heck out of this.
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But look over here, we just got another dot.
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This means mortgage rates are coming down right now.
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Okay, so here's what we follow folks.
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If you're new to me, we'll get to this in a second.
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But you just look at those numbers up through there.
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If they're green, that's good.
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That means mortgage rates are coming down.
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The bigger the number, the bigger the adjustment.
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So this plus five might not seem like much.
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But it's a big move from where we were.
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Well, let's get over it.
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Let's kind of recap what I want to do is recap the week.
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And where we were last Friday.
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And then where we are this Friday and the kind of in between.
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And then I'm going to show you some reports.
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And then I don't want to get political.
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I don't want to get this even religious anything.
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I'm just, I'm here to post the data for you.
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I love the new acronym we kind of have for our channel.
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The rate updates were having true.
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So I just want to give you true information.
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That's all I'm trying to do.
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So let me know if you guys can hear me.
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I'm going to check my chats over through here.
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So thank you so much on that.
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Last Friday rates were at 5.99.
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Now I was visiting my mom.
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And I wasn't able to post a video.
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But we had some good reports out.
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And the rates came down and it was like, okay.
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And we had over the last between last Friday and Monday.
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We had about 400 plus people trigger on our rate watch tool.
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So if you don't know what I'm talking about,
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I'll get to that later as well.
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But then almost on over the weekend, there was the honey.
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How do you want to phrase it?
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The unrest in the Middle East.
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Some call it a war call it whatever you want.
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But there's there's stuff going on.
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And that popped rates up.
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The markets start freaking out.
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Mainstream media is helping this as well.
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So what I want to do.
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Let's get over to see where the stock market is right now.
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And it's coming back a little bit.
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Downfalls 500 points after Trump comments.
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Let me see if I can redo this.
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Here it is right up through here.
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20 billion dollar reinsurance program for oil tankers
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So I'm going to stay on here for a second.
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You might start seeing these things get a little bit better.
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But let's go over to oil right over here.
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You're going to see the VIX.
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What the VIX is is this is the anxiety level on Wall Street.
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It's plus three and it's at 27.
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But this is usually like 12.
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This is double where it should be or more.
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There's panic out there.
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Even the markets are reacting.
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So that insurance just came through.
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So we're going to check oil prices.
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So we're going to watch this.
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So it's $91 a barrel right now.
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We're going to tag that $91 a barrel.
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Before I start going on through this.
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I got this is this basically shows dedicated to two friends of mine.
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He's a he's a YouTuber out there.
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And he's out in Arizona.
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He's having some health problems, folks.
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So check out his channel.
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He's like, he's a great guy.
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I was supposed to reach out to him this week.
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I had cataract surgery and other things.
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And then my buddy Mike T.
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You know, I'm talking about Mike up in New York.
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His mother passed away last weekend.
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And I wasn't able to get reach out to him.
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So my apologies on that.
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And God bless your brother.
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And I'm here for you when you get back from everything.
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So I wanted to talk about that.
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And also one other piece of the puzzle.
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I want to show you guys where go over with you.
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Because I want to give you a break in news.
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The unemployment numbers today were horrible.
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Let's see if I can get you to some numbers.
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So here's what the market did on the bond market.
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Here's basically the headlines everywhere.
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Let's get over it here.
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Here's what happens.
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I'm going to give you the jobs report and all the economic news in a second.
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Let's just get over it.
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Let me show you what historically,
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just over the last six, seven years.
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If we had conflicts in the Middle East,
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here's what normally happened.
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And we'll kind of pattern it to what's happening right now.
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This we had a strike.
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The immediate stock reaction was down almost a percent.
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Within 30 days, it went up 3%.
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That was good for that.
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2024 stock market down 1.2% for that.
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In the February escalation,
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down 1% still in progress.
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But the unique thing is we start seeing,
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usually you'll see mortgage rates kind of react in the opposite way,
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but we see mortgage rates actually jump up.
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So what normally happens is when people freak out here,
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they push all their money on to the bond market.
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Okay, so I want you to visualize this.
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You have a million bucks and you're in the stock market.
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The things things are just going to start to crash.
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So you take your money out and you buy bonds,
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because you want to invest in something.
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And just to make sure your money's making your money.
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But right now you're thinking, okay,
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the bond market's not a great way to go,
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because of this tariff stuff going on.
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Now oil is going to spike $900 a barrel.
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So inflation's going to jack up from here.
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So mainstream media is making this seem like it's going to be,
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oil prices are going to be $100 a barrel forever.
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What you have right now is you have tankers
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by the millions backed up right now,
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because of waiting for this insurance.
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So this is a game changer.
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So we might see a kind of a pretty quick reaction of this,
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but you got to remember last week we had rates at $5.99.
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Treasure yields right now are teetering at $4.1.
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This is, I just made this an hour ago.
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And it's now at $95 a barrel.
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You go through here.
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Now here's the news we got today.
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Let's get over to the economic calendar for the day in the week.
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So this is what we got this week.
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I want you guys to let me know,
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because the Federal Reserve is going to meet in 12 days.
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We'll have a live event, because I love showing you guys
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how the markets instantly react to this stuff.
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But here's the data we got this week.
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Let me know in the chats.
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After this, give me a thumbs up or whatever.
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We're going to go over some manufacturing numbers.
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The jobs report numbers before today's numbers on the jobs report.
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And let's look at the numbers and see what that data tells us.
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And then we also, hopefully, you look at corporate returns
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on our earnings hub.com.
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I won't get to that right now.
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But let's go through this week.
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And then we're going to look at next week,
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because that's the last piece of information we're going to get
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between now and when the Federal Reserve meets in two weeks
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So let's get Monday.
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You might not understand these,
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but I'll pull out the ones that really made them a big move.
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And I'll tell you what they are.
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So manufacturing PMI steady.
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You got manufacturing PMI right there here.
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This is ISM and so forth.
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Manufacturing prices.
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I don't really have to explain this one to you.
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It went from 59, supposed to go to 60.
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I was expecting that with my January effect.
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And this was before this oil stuff.
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So if you have prices at the manufacturing level going up that high,
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what does that mean to inflation?
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Let's keep going through the week.
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They say if you want to go fast, go alone.
8:33
But if you want to go far, go together.
8:36
At Amika Insurance, we know what matters most to you.
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And we work even harder to protect it together.
8:45
As a mutual insurance company,
8:47
we're built for our customers and prioritize your needs.
8:50
Amika Empathy is our best policy.
8:53
Visit amika.com and get a quote today.