S2025 Ep250: LIVE: Mortgage Rates, Jobs Report Shock & Oil Spike — What Happens Next? PART 2

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You guys know how I feel on the ADP payroll numbers.

I don't give them much trust or anything.

Their numbers are all over the board.

But this one is a head scratcher.

So we have ADP came in with their payroll numbers and they said 11,000 people got jobs.

The last reading they did, then this one they came out with this week.

They said there's going to be about 50,000 new jobs.

And there were 63,000 new jobs and you're thinking,

okay, the job market's pretty good.

Well, it keeps going.

You go to the servicing PMI and again, 52 to 51, nothing really there.

Non servicing PMI, 53 to 56.

Again, it's in the range.

This is here, same thing here.

Then you go to initial jobless claims.

Then you go, okay, there was 213,000 claims previously.

It was supposed to uptick a little bit to 215.

It stayed steady at 213.

Okay, I'm getting to something.

Also what we got on Thursday, and I didn't want to give you a whole slew of data.

We got Thursday also continued claims.

They upticked a little bit, but nothing crazy.

So I'm thinking, okay, going into today's numbers,

what would you think with all these numbers and everything else?

You go down through here and average hourly earnings.

This is good news if you're working.

You're supposed to be getting a 0.4 increase raise,

basically increase in your wages each month, about 0.4%.

Hopefully you are.

Check your wages.

And that they thought it would go down a little bit.

It stayed steady at 0.4.

So your wages are staying steady there.

Retail sales, there's nobody buying right now.

So they're flat as a pancake.

But then here's what you get.

You get non-farm payroll.

Last reading was 126,000.

They thought it would go in half to about 50 or 60.

It dropped over 100,000 and you're sitting here saying,

wait, the initial jobless claims didn't jump.

ADP, wherever they're pulling their numbers from,

theirs didn't really crash.

How are you getting these numbers?

But then you take a deep dive into it and you have,

well, there were several strikes that we really weren't publicized.

And there were the weather.

You realize we had that huge weather storm pass through

and that might have created some of these things as well.

But that's what I wanted to go back to.

Some of the biggest pieces of these puzzle,

where people are having a tough time getting jobs,

those ages from 22 to 25.

I just watched a survey on, I think it was CNBC.

And their unemployment rate there is 14%.

They're saying, well, a lot of the jobs,

and I won't say entry level,

but if you don't have that experience,

we can just get AI to kind of do that.

You can't really teach experience to get experience.

That's the toughest thing.

When I tried to get my first job, I was like,

I couldn't get a job.

I did degree in economics and I'm thinking,

you know, I got this degree.

I had to be a collector at some finance company

in downtown Chicago at minimum wage.

And then I was blessed and was able to move forward from there.

But here's what we're seeing through here.

I'm sitting here scratching my head when I look at the job numbers.

Now let's look at next week what's coming.

And this is the last piece of information that's going to come

between now and when the federal reserve meets.

And that's again, it's 12 days away.

We're going to get existing home sales.

I'm going to say these are going to be right on point

because these are previously.

All of a sudden, we have people buying,

but there's just reluctance.

And I get it.

You don't really know what you're getting into.

Check out a video.

I did a live event.

I think it was Tuesday.

Just helping people understand,

how do you buy a house?

What's really the steps to, you know, I want to buy,

you know, I'm not talking you to buy a house.

I'm just saying, hey, if you,

if you fit.

And he said, okay, I want to buy a house.

You know, check out that video.

I kind of walk you through every step.

And what we get to is,

mortgage rates are the last thing you should be interested in

when you're trying to buy that first house.

Check out that video.

I explained that through there.

But I'm going to say this,

this number is probably going to be pretty stable

because mortgage rates.

They've been really down in my lower end tier.

My, my, my forecast has been this.

I'm expecting rates to be between 5.875 and 6 in a quarter.

It's hard to tighten that range up because you're seeing it now.

Last Friday, we had rates at 599.

Today, we have rates at 6 in a quarter.

And we'll get that at the end of this video.

But they're all lower the map.

Usually you don't have that much volatility in the market.

I've been doing this for 35 years.

The volatility in the last few years is,

it's crazy.

The mainstream media has a lot to do with that.

But let's get over here.

Home sales, I think it's going to be solid.

But now we're going to start getting some inflation numbers

that you and I are kind of, you know, say,

okay, I get this one.

Because the federal reserve, what they look at is what's called the PCE.

It's personal consumption expenditure.

Me and you, we're, we're consumers.

So we want the consumer price index, which is right through here.

So what they're saying is consumer price index month over month

is going to go from 0.3 to 0.2.

I don't think that's going to happen.

So I, I'm going to say this might even be 0.4.

Okay, so if this comes out of this, I'll be high five,

I'll be high five in month into the screen next Wednesday.

But the CPI month over month,

this one was core CPI.

This is just CPI.

What core CPI means they stripped out food and energy.

This is where it's that you're going to see in the next few readings on this,

where when you strip out that food and energy, the energy trade on this one,

maybe this won't be so bad.

But I'm saying this is going to uptick as well.

The CPI numbers, yeah, they're definitely going to go up.

But this isn't, it won't be in this reading because this is the previous month.

Okay, so the new readings for March are going to be pretty bad.

You're going to be pretty bad.

You're every year, 2.4.

It could stay there.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's up just a little bit, you know,

2.6 maybe would be a reading there, but we'll time will tell.

Then every Thursday, just so you guys know,

every Thursday we get a reading on the jobs numbers.

You get initial jobless claims and continued claims.

Follow those.

You know, even if you're a realtor, if you're a consumer out there,

you're trying to, you're joining us today,

even have an interest in the stock market or, you know, mortgage rates.

Follow these things.

This is going to also tell you the direction with the Federal Zerves going to do.

And if the Federal Zerves happy, it's like, happy wife, happy life.

So let me explain.

You got an initial jobless claims.

If these stay steady, hopefully we don't have a dismal report that's coming next Thursday.

So this will be the kind of the catalyst that tells us today's report really makes sense.

So next Thursday, we'll come back and explain it then.

But we're going to look at the initial claims and continued claims.

If they're not spiking, then this report we got today is going to be a mute point.

Then on Friday, we're going to get actually the PCE.

This is the inflation number that the Fed watches.

You and I, we folks in on this.

This is the PCE.

This is personal consumption expenditure.

They monitor this.

They're also going to look at durable goods orders, robust as the economy.

The GDP are falling off a cliff.

You know, they're saying yes.

Last reading is 4.3.

They're saying it's probably going to drop all the way to 1.4.

So you have a weak market there and then the jolt index.

We'll cover that next week.

So let's get over to here.

Here's now what the Federal Reserve they're kind of content with.

Okay, so you're looking at this saying, okay, we know oil prices are going up.

So the next few readings on inflation is going to be bad.

I mean, worse than I thought, because it's just oil alone.

Even if it's a short lift, you might be maybe two, three weeks.

So now the Federal Reserve's sitting here saying, okay, we have the dilemma of inflations only going to go higher.

The jobs market, it doesn't, if they look at it like I do, it doesn't make any sense.

So we're going to wait till next week's reading.

So if you're sitting there, what are you doing?

I'm not going to do anything.

I don't think this in reading on employment was, was accurate.

I'm not going to say it's the jobs market's fantastic.

But I'm saying that one's a head scratcher.

And then when you come to oil, I think that's going to be short-lived.

Check out the calcium thing right there here.

I looked at that this morning.

It's pretty, pretty neat.

We looked at what we thought the jobs report number was going to come in.

And I think everybody lost on that one.

Okay, so now let's get over.

What does the Fed look at?

What are mortgage rates?

What's monitored to figure out what's going to go on with those?

Right there here.

This is actually what the Federal Reserve looks at.

And this is kind of what the bond market looks at as well.

The Federal Reserve controls that rate over there.

It's called the Federal Funds Rate.

It's the rate that banks charge each other.

So let's say this way.

Let's say Citibank has to have $100 gazillion in the bank.

By the time they close their books at the end of the day,

that make them solvent.

Well, they're a little bit short.

Well, they got to go out and get some money lent to them overnight.

So they go to another bank.

And this is the rate that they pay.

I'd love to be able to pay those or get those rights for you guys.

But we just can't.

And then we look at inflation in the PC.

Remember, we got the PC coming out.

And that's probably going to uptick to three.

They want that at two.

So now we have a Fed that's looking at inflation.

It's going to be three.

They want it to.

And they're adamant.

They want it at two.

And then we have a jobs reading.

We have no idea.

But next week, we'll have a maybe a better reading on Wednesday

when the initial jobless claims come out and continued claims.

But based on all this, I'm saying, okay, the jobs mark.

I don't know.

And then the inflation numbers, we know they're going to go up from here.

So if you're on the Fed, what are you doing?

I'm not cutting.

Well, let's get over to figure out what they're going to do.

At Amika Insurance, your time and peace of mind matter.

Bundle your auto and home coverage with us and enjoy savings that make life a little easier.

As a mutual insurance company, we're built for our customers.

We prioritize your needs and are here for you when you need us.

Amika, Empathy is our best policy.

Visit amika.com and get a quote today.