S2025 Ep255: Jobs Report Surprise Rocks Bond Market | Rate Update

That headline number is a pretty it's a shocker. It's a shocker. It's a shocker. I saw that number. I went oh what happened here? Why what what do we miss what an economist miss all right

Let's talk about negative 19 I was gonna do the numbers joy. Okay, negative 92,000 so the US economy lost 92,000 non-farm payroll jobs in the month of February

That is a massive surprise compared to the 55,000 jobs that were expected to be added to the economy last month

So that's the news we got last Friday, and then I kept sitting here scratching my head thinking

Okay, the jobs numbers are this bad the federal reserve's gonna have to cut rates

Then I was like wait

We got a whole bunch of information coming out next week, which is this week on the jobs numbers

And we had actually some headlines numbers come in this morning that actually says jobs aren't so bad

So if you're a homeowner home buyer

Maybe you're a real turn loan officer trying to figure out what's going on these things today

Well, you came to the right channel folks. My name is Dan Freo. I'm actually the host of the rate update

I'm also a licensed mortgage loan officer in off 50 states as well as Puerto Rico

My slogan is one application one credit pool. I'm gonna compare your loan to over 30 different lenders

How why I give you that at the end of this you're here for these so let's get to it

So last last week we had this we know the federal reserve they they look at the jobs reports

And they also look at inflation. Okay, we're gonna go at inflation here in a little bit because we got oil spike in once again

So let's get to the jobs report

So we had a jobs report number that came in and it was coming in pretty good and then last week

We got that jobs number 95,000 jobs were just poof that vanished the unemployment rate spiked up

And then the now we're thinking okay the fed the feds got a cut rates

They're neck they're meeting next week

But I wanted to look at further numbers and a lot of those numbers came in this week

And then today today we got initial jobless claims and continued claims

So you think okay if the jobs reports that bad those numbers are gonna skyrocket

So how do they come in? Well, that's what we're gonna talk about in today's video folks

So mortgage rates they spiked yesterday. They're at the high end of my range at 6.25

I said mortgage rates between 6.25 and 5.875

You realized about a week and a half ago where you're like 5.99 so this and we're at the high end of my range

So let's get over to the news

It's affecting these things and actually more making mortgage rates jump right now

So let's get to the economic news

Okay, so here's what we had we had that number last week 93 95,000 whatever it was

It was dismal. So I watched through the week and then I'm like, okay, ADP

You know how I feel about ADP payroll numbers. Let's go up here ADP payroll numbers came in on on Tuesday

That number right over my head is

12,800 was the previous reading there is 15.5,000 new jobs created in the previous week

That's pretty good. Okay. That's what is it 60,000 anything over 50,000 jobs created each month and that's that's pretty good

Okay, so that's so far is okay. We go down through here. There's really nothing that came in on

Wednesday, but then on Thursday here's what we get we get down through here initial jobless claims

Okay, if you look through there last reading was 214 it was expensive to stay there. It actually did stay there

Okay, it went down just a little bit

Not a huge spike. Okay, so if you're thinking of 94 jobs just puffed where they go they're coming back or whatever

Well, did they ever go away? So right now we have initial jobless claims. It's not showing anything. They're a big spike

Then you go over to continue claims. Here's what my big concern is if you lost your job

Can you find a new job because if you can it's really not affecting the the job market that much

So if you look at this continue jobless claims last reading was 1.87 million it was supposed to drop to 1.85

It did so that means okay, if you got let go

Less people are on continued claims, so you got absorbed back plus other people

So where that 90 thumb something number come from? I'm just scratching that one off

So the jobs number so far

Let's say it's kind of like everybody else says. It's low higher low fire

So that's the piece of the puzzle one piece of the puzzle

So far today so jobs numbers give that up and okay now let's get to the stock market now

This is where it's it's every day. It's a flip of the coin what's going on and the culprit here is oil and hopefully you've been a viewer

Mind for years because we focus in on oil and people always out. Why do you watch oil? What now you understand how oil is a huge piece of

The inflation puzzle. So here's my outlook or here's my expectations of what's going to go on?

This thing's going to be volatile as I'll get out mainstream media

They're pumping this stuff like crazy

There was a couple

Well tankers. I don't know if they're oil tankers or not. I think hit last night

Those didn't appear to be traveling with oil through the the

Her moves they were they were docked for some reason so check out make sure you do all your due diligence

Just like before you vote out there folks before you vote make sure you do all your due diligence on your candidate

But we're taking it on the channel once again

But don't freak out because this might be positive by the end of the day

So here's all I want you to do check out my stock talk Tuesday. I did last Tuesday

It was a special event just helping people not to you know jump out of window because the market is hugely volatile

A lot of traders are getting rich on this thing. So right now we look at earning season doing pretty good

We look at the jobs report if you extract out last week's number

It's looking pretty good

So now let's look at inflation and the culprit here is going to be oil

So let's see how the markets are freaking out right now especially the bond market because that's why you're here to check out with mortgage rates are going

So if you're really watching or trying to figure out what's going on mortgage rates

Subscribe over there watch my videos five six more minutes each morning

I'm going to show you this bond right through here this bond. Why it's so important if you see up through there

It says MBS. It's a mortgage bond. It's hard to find this thing

You go watch the 10-year treasury or the Dow Jones

But what's the mortgage rates doing so just join me each day

But all you have to understand is up through there if that number up at the top next to MBS is green and in a positive number

That's that's good news. So green is good red is bad the bigger the number of green or the bigger the number red the bigger the adjustment

If you look at yesterday's news or yesterday's charts we went down down down in a way

Would it that due to mortgage rates? Oh again down is bad

So that means mortgage rates went up and you got a pretty big bump yesterday

Okay, so now let's get to the next piece of the puzzle the feds meeting in six days

We'll have a live event

I'll show you what happens instant market reactions to all this then we're going to come in actually

We're going to come in after all of this even the media and I'm going to show you how would happen right when the

Federal Reserve did what they did and they're not going to cut rates. I'll show you that here in a second

But then once the media starts asking the Fed chairman some questions

That's when you start getting some movements. So I'm going to show you how that affects the markets

But right now and six days of feds going to meet what are they going to do on all this information?

Well yesterday it was 99.3 today. It is 99.3 so if you go down through here

There's a 99.3% probability the Fed will not be doing anything the probabilities at the next few meetings

It's off the board until what July? Well, we're going to have a whole new cast of characters in June

We're replacing the head of the Federal Reserve. I think in May

Federal chairman Powell with Warsh check him out. So do your due diligence on them

But that's that's what that's what's looking like down the pike on federal rate cuts

But you guys know you know when the Federal Reserve cuts rates or not

That does have a minimum impact on mortgage rates. It's kind of it's kind of eerie

So how you really understand this is you have to understand the stuff that the the Federal Reserve monitors

It's inflation and jobs

So we went over the jobs report numbers looking pretty darn good and the here's now what's happening

You got oil spiking up to levels that people are saying this could hit a hundred and ten twenty two hundred dollars a barrel

I think we're going to be in a range right through here

I think we're the the hundred dollars is going to be the high end

But when you have this the resolution here it could be a day as it could be weeks could be months

You're going to have the oil kind of really coming down from from there

Here's the biggest thing to watch for the longer the duration this goes out

The worse it is and here's why because if you're an oil company right now pump an oil

You have all these tankers you're filling them filling them filling them once they're full and they can't move

Well now you got to stop production now once these oil companies stop production

That's we're going to have delays and huge problems

So this this resolution needs to be happened fast

So oil can stay at these levels and then you know really plummet from there because of it last months

This is going to be sticky and that's going to add to our inflationary numbers

So what would I do now if I'm a home owner or a home buyer?

I try to come out each day and explain to you guys what would I do if I'm in your shoes

I mean coming out for the last few months saying okay if you're rate if you're a home owner

You you marry that house and dated the rate if your rates over seven

Reach out to us let us know if we can at least run the numbers for you to see if you can save some money

I have some calculators they're free. I actually figured it out yesterday. So I'll let you know how to do that

But if you're at home on a rate now your rates over seven

Reach out to us. Let's see if we can save you some money

But if you're looking to buy where do I think rates are going to go

I'm still staying steady with my prediction right through here rates would be about 5.875 to 6.25 yeah

We're hitting that mark right now and we might even exceed

My rates today over the next few weeks

But you know, I'm expecting it to come down once all this all these conflicts

Resolve themselves and it will resolve themselves now the the sooner the better

So here's my expectations if you're looking to maybe buy in the summer you're looking to build

I think you should be okay, you know

Reach out to us make sure you get pre-approved not pre-qualified and then we'll track rates for you

And there are programs where you can do a long lock you can do a lock and shop things like that to help you out

But I wouldn't be much concerned about locking in you know in a long-term situation right now

But if you're over 8% right now on your mortgage rate or over seven and a half reach out to us

I'd love to help other than that just continue to monitor rates watch my channel down through there

And here's some tools I want to give you guys if you're a homeowner home buyer realtor or loan officer

These are all free for you make sure you use promo code dan just type in dan

I think it's all lowercase just keep trying it and you'll get them up through here

I just updated all these yesterday and every one of them now has dan and if you go to the toolkit right through here

This gives you everything in the whole thing

So just grab that one make sure you grab them while they're free

But that's that's tools for you guys to use now

Here's what I want you guys to do if you're a homeowner or a home buyer if you're homeowner

I created two tools up there one tool up there basically

It's rate watch 2.1 what I want you to do is let me do the monitoring for you

What rate would you like to refinance? I'll track it for you how much a monthly savings would you want?

Yeah, you can even put in Dan. I won if I can save three four hundred bucks a month call me text me email me

Track me down. I want to refinance you can do that now as well in the rate watch 2.1

So if you put your information in rate watch 2.0

I'm trying to track them

But if you put it in 2.1 you can actually add in your monthly savings there

But wonder if you got a quote from somebody you know like hey Dan you mentioned at the beginning you

Compare rates and things like that with over 30 lenders

Let me explain to you what I do and who I am my name is Dan Frio hopefully you figure that one out by now

I've been doing this for over 35 years. I'd love for to help navigate you from basically keys in your pocket

To keys in your application to keys in your pocket or if you're a home owner

Let's drive down that house payment to make housing a little more affordable

So I've been doing this for over 35 years my slogan is one application one credit

But we're gonna compare your offer to 35 37 different lenders. How do we do that?

Well the bank I work at I'm licensed in all 50 states as well as Puerto Rico

We're also set up with almost 40 other lenders

So we so you can avoid this

What are you going to do if you're if you're trying to refinance or buy house

You're going to put in your application there there that bank that credit union and bankrate.com's got

500 credit or mortgage companies on there. So you're going to do all that

You're going to get you have your credit ruined because everybody's going to pull your credit

Then you're going to get all these quotes and you're going to be like now what?

Okay, so why don't you use me? I can help you navigate through this whole entire process

Me and my team would love to help you so join us each day at the rate update uh the rate down through there

Subscribe each day or join us right through here if you need some help with the mortgage click any of these buttons through here

There's a lot of great tools down here and there's over 7,000 videos

As well for you to go through and I'm sure there's something there to help you out

So folks my name is Dan Freo. I'm the rate of the and they hosted the rate update and a nationwide mortgage loan officer

If you need help with the mortgage, I'd love to help you but right now I think mortgage rates they're just going to be flat today

But watch oil because that's going to be the culprit of what drives this up or down

So thanks for watching see you here tomorrow morning on how this starts yet another day

Take care folks. See you then. Bye bye