Today’s February jobs report shocked the markets, and when employment data surprises economists, the ripple effects can move mortgage rates, bond yields, and the housing market almost immediately.
In today’s episode of The Rate Update, we break down the unexpected payroll numbers, what the data actually means for the economy, and how it could impact mortgage rates moving forward.
Because the labor market is one of the Federal Reserve’s most important indicators, surprises in the jobs report can quickly shift expectations around inflation, rate cuts, and the direction of mortgage rates.
In this video we break down:
• What the latest payroll numbers actually show • Why economists didn’t expect this report • How the bond market and 10-Year Treasury reacted • What this means for mortgage rates and home affordability • Whether the Federal Reserve may change its outlook on rate cuts
No hype. No clickbait.
Just real mortgage data explained simply.
🔔 Start Here
📈 RateWatch 2.1— Get Notified When Mortgage Rate -or- Payment Hit Your Target
00:00 Intro 00:35 The Jobs Report Nobody Expected 02:20 Breaking Down the Payroll Numbers 04:10 Why the Market Was Surprised 06:00 Bond Market Reaction (10-Year Treasury) 08:05 What This Means for Mortgage Rates 10:40 Federal Reserve Outlook 12:30 Housing Market Implications 14:05 Mortgage Rate Forecast 15:30 Final Thoughts
⚖️ Mortgage Compliance Disclosure
Dan Frio | NMLS #246527 TRU Mortgage Team / PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781 Equal Housing Lender
Content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
That headline number is a pretty it's a shocker. It's a shocker. It's a shocker. I saw that number. I went oh what happened here? Why what what do we miss what an economist miss all right
Let's talk about negative 19 I was gonna do the numbers joy. Okay, negative 92,000 so the US economy lost 92,000 non-farm payroll jobs in the month of February
That is a massive surprise compared to the 55,000 jobs that were expected to be added to the economy last month
So that's the news we got last Friday, and then I kept sitting here scratching my head thinking
Okay, the jobs numbers are this bad the federal reserve's gonna have to cut rates
Then I was like wait
We got a whole bunch of information coming out next week, which is this week on the jobs numbers
And we had actually some headlines numbers come in this morning that actually says jobs aren't so bad
So if you're a homeowner home buyer
Maybe you're a real turn loan officer trying to figure out what's going on these things today
Well, you came to the right channel folks. My name is Dan Freo. I'm actually the host of the rate update
I'm also a licensed mortgage loan officer in off 50 states as well as Puerto Rico
My slogan is one application one credit pool. I'm gonna compare your loan to over 30 different lenders
How why I give you that at the end of this you're here for these so let's get to it
So last last week we had this we know the federal reserve they they look at the jobs reports
And they also look at inflation. Okay, we're gonna go at inflation here in a little bit because we got oil spike in once again
So let's get to the jobs report
So we had a jobs report number that came in and it was coming in pretty good and then last week
We got that jobs number 95,000 jobs were just poof that vanished the unemployment rate spiked up
And then the now we're thinking okay the fed the feds got a cut rates
They're neck they're meeting next week
But I wanted to look at further numbers and a lot of those numbers came in this week
And then today today we got initial jobless claims and continued claims
So you think okay if the jobs reports that bad those numbers are gonna skyrocket
So how do they come in? Well, that's what we're gonna talk about in today's video folks
So mortgage rates they spiked yesterday. They're at the high end of my range at 6.25
I said mortgage rates between 6.25 and 5.875
You realized about a week and a half ago where you're like 5.99 so this and we're at the high end of my range
So let's get over to the news
It's affecting these things and actually more making mortgage rates jump right now
So let's get to the economic news
Okay, so here's what we had we had that number last week 93 95,000 whatever it was
It was dismal. So I watched through the week and then I'm like, okay, ADP
You know how I feel about ADP payroll numbers. Let's go up here ADP payroll numbers came in on on Tuesday
That number right over my head is
12,800 was the previous reading there is 15.5,000 new jobs created in the previous week
That's pretty good. Okay. That's what is it 60,000 anything over 50,000 jobs created each month and that's that's pretty good
Okay, so that's so far is okay. We go down through here. There's really nothing that came in on
Wednesday, but then on Thursday here's what we get we get down through here initial jobless claims
Okay, if you look through there last reading was 214 it was expensive to stay there. It actually did stay there
Okay, it went down just a little bit
Not a huge spike. Okay, so if you're thinking of 94 jobs just puffed where they go they're coming back or whatever
Well, did they ever go away? So right now we have initial jobless claims. It's not showing anything. They're a big spike
Then you go over to continue claims. Here's what my big concern is if you lost your job
Can you find a new job because if you can it's really not affecting the the job market that much
So if you look at this continue jobless claims last reading was 1.87 million it was supposed to drop to 1.85
It did so that means okay, if you got let go
Less people are on continued claims, so you got absorbed back plus other people
So where that 90 thumb something number come from? I'm just scratching that one off
So the jobs number so far
Let's say it's kind of like everybody else says. It's low higher low fire
So that's the piece of the puzzle one piece of the puzzle
So far today so jobs numbers give that up and okay now let's get to the stock market now
This is where it's it's every day. It's a flip of the coin what's going on and the culprit here is oil and hopefully you've been a viewer
Mind for years because we focus in on oil and people always out. Why do you watch oil? What now you understand how oil is a huge piece of
The inflation puzzle. So here's my outlook or here's my expectations of what's going to go on?
This thing's going to be volatile as I'll get out mainstream media
They're pumping this stuff like crazy
There was a couple
Well tankers. I don't know if they're oil tankers or not. I think hit last night
Those didn't appear to be traveling with oil through the the
Her moves they were they were docked for some reason so check out make sure you do all your due diligence
Just like before you vote out there folks before you vote make sure you do all your due diligence on your candidate
But we're taking it on the channel once again
But don't freak out because this might be positive by the end of the day
So here's all I want you to do check out my stock talk Tuesday. I did last Tuesday
It was a special event just helping people not to you know jump out of window because the market is hugely volatile
A lot of traders are getting rich on this thing. So right now we look at earning season doing pretty good
We look at the jobs report if you extract out last week's number
It's looking pretty good
So now let's look at inflation and the culprit here is going to be oil
So let's see how the markets are freaking out right now especially the bond market because that's why you're here to check out with mortgage rates are going
So if you're really watching or trying to figure out what's going on mortgage rates
Subscribe over there watch my videos five six more minutes each morning
I'm going to show you this bond right through here this bond. Why it's so important if you see up through there
It says MBS. It's a mortgage bond. It's hard to find this thing
You go watch the 10-year treasury or the Dow Jones
But what's the mortgage rates doing so just join me each day
But all you have to understand is up through there if that number up at the top next to MBS is green and in a positive number
That's that's good news. So green is good red is bad the bigger the number of green or the bigger the number red the bigger the adjustment
If you look at yesterday's news or yesterday's charts we went down down down in a way
Would it that due to mortgage rates? Oh again down is bad
So that means mortgage rates went up and you got a pretty big bump yesterday
Okay, so now let's get to the next piece of the puzzle the feds meeting in six days
We'll have a live event
I'll show you what happens instant market reactions to all this then we're going to come in actually
We're going to come in after all of this even the media and I'm going to show you how would happen right when the
Federal Reserve did what they did and they're not going to cut rates. I'll show you that here in a second
But then once the media starts asking the Fed chairman some questions
That's when you start getting some movements. So I'm going to show you how that affects the markets
But right now and six days of feds going to meet what are they going to do on all this information?
Well yesterday it was 99.3 today. It is 99.3 so if you go down through here
There's a 99.3% probability the Fed will not be doing anything the probabilities at the next few meetings
It's off the board until what July? Well, we're going to have a whole new cast of characters in June
We're replacing the head of the Federal Reserve. I think in May
Federal chairman Powell with Warsh check him out. So do your due diligence on them
But that's that's what that's what's looking like down the pike on federal rate cuts
But you guys know you know when the Federal Reserve cuts rates or not
That does have a minimum impact on mortgage rates. It's kind of it's kind of eerie
So how you really understand this is you have to understand the stuff that the the Federal Reserve monitors
It's inflation and jobs
So we went over the jobs report numbers looking pretty darn good and the here's now what's happening
You got oil spiking up to levels that people are saying this could hit a hundred and ten twenty two hundred dollars a barrel
I think we're going to be in a range right through here
I think we're the the hundred dollars is going to be the high end
But when you have this the resolution here it could be a day as it could be weeks could be months
You're going to have the oil kind of really coming down from from there
Here's the biggest thing to watch for the longer the duration this goes out
The worse it is and here's why because if you're an oil company right now pump an oil
You have all these tankers you're filling them filling them filling them once they're full and they can't move
Well now you got to stop production now once these oil companies stop production
That's we're going to have delays and huge problems
So this this resolution needs to be happened fast
So oil can stay at these levels and then you know really plummet from there because of it last months
This is going to be sticky and that's going to add to our inflationary numbers
So what would I do now if I'm a home owner or a home buyer?
I try to come out each day and explain to you guys what would I do if I'm in your shoes
I mean coming out for the last few months saying okay if you're rate if you're a home owner
You you marry that house and dated the rate if your rates over seven
Reach out to us let us know if we can at least run the numbers for you to see if you can save some money
I have some calculators they're free. I actually figured it out yesterday. So I'll let you know how to do that
But if you're at home on a rate now your rates over seven
Reach out to us. Let's see if we can save you some money
But if you're looking to buy where do I think rates are going to go
I'm still staying steady with my prediction right through here rates would be about 5.875 to 6.25 yeah
We're hitting that mark right now and we might even exceed
My rates today over the next few weeks
But you know, I'm expecting it to come down once all this all these conflicts
Resolve themselves and it will resolve themselves now the the sooner the better
So here's my expectations if you're looking to maybe buy in the summer you're looking to build
I think you should be okay, you know
Reach out to us make sure you get pre-approved not pre-qualified and then we'll track rates for you
And there are programs where you can do a long lock you can do a lock and shop things like that to help you out
But I wouldn't be much concerned about locking in you know in a long-term situation right now
But if you're over 8% right now on your mortgage rate or over seven and a half reach out to us
I'd love to help other than that just continue to monitor rates watch my channel down through there
And here's some tools I want to give you guys if you're a homeowner home buyer realtor or loan officer
These are all free for you make sure you use promo code dan just type in dan
I think it's all lowercase just keep trying it and you'll get them up through here
I just updated all these yesterday and every one of them now has dan and if you go to the toolkit right through here
This gives you everything in the whole thing
So just grab that one make sure you grab them while they're free
But that's that's tools for you guys to use now
Here's what I want you guys to do if you're a homeowner or a home buyer if you're homeowner
I created two tools up there one tool up there basically
It's rate watch 2.1 what I want you to do is let me do the monitoring for you
What rate would you like to refinance? I'll track it for you how much a monthly savings would you want?
Yeah, you can even put in Dan. I won if I can save three four hundred bucks a month call me text me email me
Track me down. I want to refinance you can do that now as well in the rate watch 2.1
So if you put your information in rate watch 2.0
I'm trying to track them
But if you put it in 2.1 you can actually add in your monthly savings there
But wonder if you got a quote from somebody you know like hey Dan you mentioned at the beginning you
Compare rates and things like that with over 30 lenders
Let me explain to you what I do and who I am my name is Dan Frio hopefully you figure that one out by now
I've been doing this for over 35 years. I'd love for to help navigate you from basically keys in your pocket
To keys in your application to keys in your pocket or if you're a home owner
Let's drive down that house payment to make housing a little more affordable
So I've been doing this for over 35 years my slogan is one application one credit
But we're gonna compare your offer to 35 37 different lenders. How do we do that?
Well the bank I work at I'm licensed in all 50 states as well as Puerto Rico
We're also set up with almost 40 other lenders
So we so you can avoid this
What are you going to do if you're if you're trying to refinance or buy house
You're going to put in your application there there that bank that credit union and bankrate.com's got
500 credit or mortgage companies on there. So you're going to do all that
You're going to get you have your credit ruined because everybody's going to pull your credit
Then you're going to get all these quotes and you're going to be like now what?
Okay, so why don't you use me? I can help you navigate through this whole entire process
Me and my team would love to help you so join us each day at the rate update uh the rate down through there
Subscribe each day or join us right through here if you need some help with the mortgage click any of these buttons through here
There's a lot of great tools down here and there's over 7,000 videos
As well for you to go through and I'm sure there's something there to help you out
So folks my name is Dan Freo. I'm the rate of the and they hosted the rate update and a nationwide mortgage loan officer
If you need help with the mortgage, I'd love to help you but right now I think mortgage rates they're just going to be flat today
But watch oil because that's going to be the culprit of what drives this up or down
So thanks for watching see you here tomorrow morning on how this starts yet another day
Take care folks. See you then. Bye bye
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