S2025 Ep256: Congress Passes Housing Bill While Mortgage Rates Hit New Highs—Here's Why

Hey folks, Dave Friel here with your real estate news for this March 13th, yeah, Friday

the 13th, 2026.

When mortgage rates, they popped higher than I expected you saying, Hey, Dan, I thought

you said the high end rates were going to be six and a quarter.

We might get there today, but the Iranian conflicts really thrown havoc into this.

But I do want to go over with you some, it's kind of like an economist New Year's Day

today because we're getting the PCE, the, the, some unemployment numbers.

We're getting the wage growth GDP, all this stuff.

If you're not excited about it, I'm glad you visited me because my goal each day is

to help explain to you guys what's going to go on with those today and the wise behind

it.

So today we're going to get the last piece of information that the Federal Reserve is

really going to see before they meet next week on inflation GDP and a whole bunch

other things.

And then we're also going to talk about the big housing bill that passed last night.

I'm going to show you how really it's not going to really do anything to the housing market.

It is great PR, but I'm also going to give you my experience.

I was on the housing committee or the committee in my town, and I'm going to show you my experience

on that.

I was on there for about a year and a half, two years, and I just walked out.

I'm like, okay, this is ridiculous.

I'll give you a little insight on that.

But first off, I want to get to these things because of your homeowner, home buyer, maybe

your realtor, Lone Officer trying to figure out what's going to happen with these today

and what happened yesterday, you came to the right channel, folks.

So my name is Dan Frio.

I'm actually a licensed mortgage loan officer in all 50 states, as well as Puerto Rico.

My slogan's one application, one credit pool, I'm going to compare your loan to over 30

different lenders.

How?

Why?

I'll give you that at the end of this.

Let's get to these over through here.

So here's what's happening in the markets right now.

I want to start with this because if you're new to my channel or you're old to my channel,

this is where we really go to.

This is what's telling us what's going on with mortgage rates.

Now we had a lot of inflationary numbers come out today, GDP and things like that.

The federal reserve really monitors, but I just wanted to go here real quick, then show

you kind of what we got this morning.

What news we got last night, then we're going to have a live event.

I'm going to kind of cover this in great details and join me then.

It's going to be one o'clock, a central time, but the markets are looking pretty good.

Here's all you need you to know over through here, that number, if it's green up there,

that's good.

Okay.

As the number gets bigger and bigger, that's even better because that means mortgage rates

are coming down the bigger, the number, the bigger, the adjustment.

Well, look yesterday, let's get to a two day chart and see if we can get back to

the net neutral.

Okay.

So here's what happened.

Remember, I said, when these go down mortgage rates go up.

This is a big move.

You can go over through here.

Mortgage rates went up.

Okay.

So hopefully, hopefully today, we can get back up through here and at least get to my

high end range of where we're going to be.

But look at this.

This just went to 23.

It was at 19.

So we'll track that in just a minute.

We'll get that back to that in a second.

But here's what the markets are doing.

So this is what I call basically a Cinderella story and I'm going to get to the reasons

why here in a second, but we got the Dow Jones.

It's going to open about 200 points up as some piece up, NASDAQs up, oils down, great.

The 10 year treasuries down.

Let's get to crypto.

Let's let's press our luck.

It's up over 20.

It's 72,000.

So a complete Cinderella story until you get up through there.

So that's what let's start talking about that.

Fourth quarter GDP revised down 0.7.

Well, let's get over to the economic calendar we have for today.

I'm going to go through all these numbers and it's showing us the inflation.

It's still there.

The acceleration is kind of flat lining or at least right where the analysts are expecting.

So let's get over to what we got for today.

OK, the first thing we want to look at is the PCE.

That's basically what the Federal Reserve looks at.

Let's get over to here.

Federal looks at reserve.

They look at this.

The PC, that's how they monitor inflation and they look at the jobs report through the

unemployment rate.

Anything below five is full employment.

They control that rate over through there.

And they also look at the GDP.

That was 1.4 previously.

It was 4.4.

OK.

One of those numbers.

Let's go back to this.

OK.

So let's go to durable goods.

How much are people buying big stuff?

OK.

Well, it's kind of coming down.

It was 1.3 before.

I expected it would drop to about 0.5 and dropped less than that.

So the consumption of big orders like cars and things like that, they're way down.

But now let's get over to the inflationary numbers.

Here's what the Federal Reserve watches.

PCE.

OK.

See what you see?

PCE.

PCE.

OK.

I'm going to break these down.

Month over month, year over year, and quarter over quarter.

OK.

Then we're going to look at the PCE right through here.

It's not the core.

So let me explain the differences.

And this is going to be really relevant kind of going forward over the next few months.

Core strips out food and energy.

Energy.

OK.

So this one could be kind of flat.

I'm expecting it to go up a little gradually because of my January effect.

I know it's March.

But it's going to peak.

And this war is really throwing havoc on this stuff.

But if you go over through here, year over year one from three, they expected three one

and came in at three one.

OK.

So that's not a huge increase in inflation.

OK.

So on the core side of it, going over this for Q4, it was 2.9.

It came down.

So Q4 last year, again, folks, when we say inflation is slowing down or coming down, it

doesn't mean prices are going to kind of go backwards.

It just means the rate of acceleration is slowing down.

OK.

So that's that part.

Then we got GDP.

GDP was 4.4.

It was expected at 1.4, it came in at 0.7.

That's pretty dismal.

But let's keep going.

Then we get to the PC.

These are the prices with everything included.

The food, the energy, the whole ball of wax.

Let's get up through here so I can make sure you guys are seeing this.

PCE year over year was 2.9.

It's expected to stay at 2.9, 2.8.

There's that high five, I said I'd expect to you guys, because I expected this to come

in hot.

PCE month of a month, January, 0.4 to 0.3, that's good.

Personal spending, 0.4, flattet, 0.4.

OK.

So let's summarize this real quick.

Inflation's still up there, but it's starting to cool.

OK.

Based on this, people aren't buying as big of items.

They're still spending, basically, on everything that we need.

So inflation's cooling down.

GDP's getting bad.

But we have to understand with GDP and other things, there was government shutdowns.

The government shut down what?

A month or so.

They buy a lot of stuff.

OK.

So when they don't buy this stuff, then the GDP's kind of laps.

But we'll check over the next couple of readings.

They're going to kind of revise this a few times, so we'll get to that.

OK.

So that's what we're seeing through the markets right now.

So they're saying, OK, inflation, it's not the two where the Fed wants it.

I thought we'd go to three.

I don't know.

We didn't get there, but this is still way over what they want it to be.

OK.

The jobs report, it's coming in OK, wages OK.

You might not feel that way.

But overall, when you look at the numbers, if this is under five percent, it's full employment.

GDP, there's a hiccup there.

So overall, this is going to say, OK, inflation's just too high.

The economy's OK.

We're not going to cut.

We're not going to cut.

Well, let's get over to some other pieces of the puzzle, because this oil stuff could

really hurt people.

Where it hurts people?

Well, gasoline prices are going to skyrocket.

Fertilizer's going to go up.

Everything's going to start going up more and more and more, because of oil.

OK.

Who gets hurt the most?

People live in paychecks to paychecks.

So that's where we really got to be concerned there.

But let's get over to here.

The Fed's going to meet in five days.

What are they going to do?

I'll get to that in a second.

Now on to that housing bill thing they passed last night.

Now, we're going to go in this in detail on our live event today.

And it is a just a white washing of something just, let's go through it here.

I just want to give you my thoughts on this.

I was invited by the mayor of Artown several years ago to be on the planning commission

in Artown.

I was on there for about a year and a half, and then I'm like, I can't do this.

It was so crazy.

I had builders, developers come to me after these meetings, and they knew who I was, and

what business I was in and so forth.

And they're like, do this is crazy.

We can build in New York City easier than we can build in your town.

And we got to go through this and this and that and this, and I'm like, I get it.

But they're they're they're setting their ways.

So this is another reason folks, I'm not saying in my town, but you know, make sure you're

voting in the people that you really want to run your town, your schools, your country,

your counties, whatever, just do your due diligence.

That's all I ask.

Don't just go party line.

Make sure you really understand that person.

So that's that piece of it.

Let's get to this white wash build that they have.

Okay.

So they're going to come in and we have, we don't have enough homes.

We get it.

And there's too much regulations.

Remember that?

Regulations that we, we keep bitching about, well, now it's coming to fruition.

Here's why we got regulations out our, you know what?

And that's why you can't build.

So now they're coming in and saying, okay, we're going to make it easier.

We're going to streamline some rules and inspections and we're going to expand affordability

on affordable housing, wherever that's going to go.

And then we're going to give local governments more tools, they already have the tools.

And then we're going to support manufacturing and modular housing that that is a need.

A lot of people are buying manufactured homes and modular homes and they up until the last

few years, they're hard to get financed.

And then push back on large institutional investors.

This is an easy loophole to get through folks.

The number five.

Number four, manufacturing home, I'm giving that a thumbs up.

Number three, give local tools, that's BS, two, expand financial tools, BS.

And number one is complete BS.

We know there's a shortage of housing, regulations out of control, but this is down to your local

governments and your county governments.

So yeah, this is great for that, but we'll dive into this so I can give you my full take

on all this and more.

And I'd love for you guys to ask me any questions, so prep yourself for that.

So last but not least, I figured out how to all make my all my calculators free.

So there's been in 48 hours we had about 130 people go here and about 10 people downloaded

stuff.

Folks, they're all free now.

You don't even have to put in a code.

Check them out.

If you're a realtor loan officer, you're going to love these things.

If you're a consumer looking to buy a house, how much can you afford if you're a homeowner?

It doesn't make sense to refinance.

So these are all the tools I'm providing you.

So folks, I do this a little different.

I want to provide you the tools, the knowledge, the information you need to make your own decisions.

I'm not here to tell you to refinance, to buy a house, even who to vote for.

But my whole goal is to help you understand kind of what's going on with these and the

wise behind this and other parts of the market.

Last but not least, let's get over to Koshi.

They came in and said, I was on here in the CPI, the CPI above this, that check out the

Koshi thing.

I'm still trying to figure this thing out.

I'm trying to see how accurate these estimates are with the real numbers truly come in.

So folks, last but not least, who am I?

What do I do?

I said to beginning this, I'm like, I'm a loan officer.

So my name is Dan Frio.

I'm actually a licensed loan officer in all 50 states, yeah, all 50 states, as well as

Puerto Rico.

I've been doing this for over 35 years.

Here's the reason why I'm at this bank and I'm going to stay here, hopefully forever.

Is they keep coming us and saying, would you need to be more successful?

And I'm like, heck, I'm going to rate update.

So I need more competitive rates and programs.

What are you looking for if you're watching this video?

You're probably like, okay, I need to buy house.

I really don't know what to do.

Check out.

I got 7,000 videos down there.

Every one of these are half of these are going to cover what you're looking for.

Okay.

But if you need help with refinancing, got a tool up there through there if you're a home

owner, put in your mortgage information, it would rate, would you like to be contacted

to refinance?

Would the payment be?

What would the savings be?

Would the break even point be?

I actually updated it to 2.1.

So if you're in ratewatch 2.0, put your information in 2.1 because what I added, you can now add

in how much of a month these savings would you want.

So now you can say, Dan, if I can save 300 bucks a month, 400 bucks a month, can't reach

me.

I'd love to talk about the numbers and see what you can do.

But if you're out there and you're looking to try to buy in the spring, and I know it's

spring here, in the summer of the fall, we love to make sure you're pre-approved and

not pre-qualified.

And we're also going to search over 30 different lenders.

What my bank did is they're like, okay, you need more competition, we're going to set

up.

So now we have over 30, almost 40 different lenders.

These are banks, credit unions, and mortgage companies.

So when you reach out to us, if we don't have the product here, I can help you get through

that as well by using me and my team during this whole process.

So that's our report for this morning folks.

Hope you learned a little bit.

Hope you have subscribed down there.

So every time I post a video, you can learn, but join me today at 1 o'clock.

We're going to go over this new housing bill and how it's more BS and just a smoke screen

before the midterm elections, you have to understand these, and this is really going

to help housing.

We can't hurt, but it's really going to help.

That's what we're going to learn this afternoon.

So thanks for watching folks.

God bless.

Have a fantastic day.

If you join me later this evening, great, but I will have some videos coming out this

weekend.

Check out those.

It's pretty cool.

So have a great weekend.

Be safe, and I'll see you Monday morning at the opening bell to see how these things

start yet another week.

Take care.