S2025 Ep260: The oil-mortgage rate link nobody's talking about --Part 1

Mortgage rates were near 5.99%… but are they heading back to 7%?

With a Federal Reserve meeting just days away, rising oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and inflation still above target, the big question is:

👉 What happens to mortgage rates next — and what should YOU do about it?

In today’s update, we break down exactly what’s happening in the markets and how it impacts homebuyers, homeowners, and anyone watching interest rates right now.

📊 What We Cover in This Video:

• Why mortgage rates moved recently (and why they could move again fast)
• The impact of oil prices pushing toward $100+
• How global conflict is affecting the bond market
• What to expect from the Federal Reserve meeting this week
• Inflation trends and why the Fed is stuck
• The 10-Year Treasury and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) breakdown
• Whether rates could jump from the mid-5% range back toward 7%
• What this means if you're buying, refinancing, or waiting

🏡 What This Means for YOU:

If you're a:

• Homebuyer → Timing matters more than ever
• Homeowner → Refinance windows can open and close quickly
• Investor → Rate volatility = opportunity (and risk)

The market is noisy right now — but the data tells the real story.

🎯 The Bottom Line:

This week could be a major turning point for mortgage rates.

The Fed decision, inflation data, and global events are all colliding at once — and that’s exactly when rates tend to move the most.

👉 The key isn’t guessing… it’s understanding the data and being ready to act.

🔔 Start Here

📈 RateWatch 2.1 — Get Notified When Mortgage Rates or Payments Hit Your Target
👉 https://www.therateupdate.com/rate-watch

📞 Schedule a Free Mortgage Strategy Call
👉 https://calendly.com/d/cq29-7xd-x3v/the-frio-team?month=2025-05

📝 Apply for a Mortgage — One Application • One Credit Pull • 30+ Lenders
👉 https://257781.my1003app.com/246527/register

🧮 TRU Mortgage Calculator Toolkit

👉 https://stan.store/TRU-Foundations

Professional-grade calculators used by loan officers and homebuyers:

• Home Affordability Calculator
• Refinance & Debt Consolidation Analyzer
• Cost-of-Waiting™ Calculator
• Break-Even & ROI Mortgage Calculator

📲 Follow The Rate Update

YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/@TheRateUpdatewithDanFrio

Instagram
https://instagram.com/therateupdate

TikTok
https://tiktok.com/@therateupdate

Facebook
https://facebook.com/therateupdate

LinkedIn
https://www.linkedin.com/in/danfrio

⚖️ Mortgage Compliance Disclosure

Dan Frio | NMLS #246527
TRU Mortgage Team / PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781
Equal Housing Lender

Content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.

⏱️ Chapters

00:00 – Mortgage Rates: 5.99% to 7%? What’s Happening
00:45 – Why Rates Moved This Week
02:10 – Oil Prices Near $100 and Market Impact
03:40 – Global Conflict and Bond Market Reaction
05:15 – Federal Reserve Meeting Preview (This Week)
07:30 – Inflation Still Above Target: What It Means
09:00 – 10-Year Treasury & MBS Breakdown
11:20 – Could Mortgage Rates Spike Again?
13:10 – What Homebuyers Should Do Right Now
15:00 – What Homeowners & Refinance Watchers Should Know
16:30 – Final Thoughts: What to Expect This Week