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Well, top of the morning to you this March 17th, 2026, it is St. Paddy's day, folks.
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And if you're Irish out there, congratulations.
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Actually, my grandfather in law is Patrick Ryan.
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So, contribute to him.
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I am wearing green today.
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But if you're watching this video, good news for you.
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Rates are coming down.
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Don't miss it this time.
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If you're a homeowner, I'm going to give you a tool at the end of this video where you can
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actually put in your mortgage information.
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Let me track this for you because you realize mortgage rates were 5.99, like a week and
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Well, don't miss it this time.
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Put your information in at the end of this video.
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But if you're here watching this video, most likely your homeowner, home buyer, heck, you
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could be a realtor loan officer, trying to figure out what's going on these today.
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Well, I got good news for you.
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It looks like they're going to go down.
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I told you it was going to go down yesterday.
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They're going to go down even further today.
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Well, let's get to today's news, folks.
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So the first thing we want to do is go over through here.
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The Federal Reserve, they're going to meet in one day, one day from now.
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We're going to have a live event.
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I'm going to have it live.
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Actually, about an hour after they announced, and here's why the Federal Reserve is going
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to come out and they're going to announce there's a 99 point something.
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I'll show you that here in a little bit.
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Chance, they're not going to do anything at this meeting.
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But we really want to focus in on what they tell us after that when they have the median
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So I'm going to show you after the effect, what happens with rates at that point.
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So here's what kind of the expectations are because here's what the Federal Reserve
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They control that rate over there.
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That's the Federal Funds rate.
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All that is is inner bank lending.
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If you're one bank and need money to kind of be solvent, you can lend money at that rate
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So that's basically the only thing that controls.
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But here's what they focus in on.
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They focus in on inflation.
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This is the number they want it to.
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Probably the next reading, once we get this oil debacle coming through, this is going
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So the Fed's not going to do anything, but now they're watching this and this.
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So we have the unemployment number.
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Kind of just ticked up just a little bit recently.
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But we had ADP payroll numbers coming in this morning.
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And yeah, I heard crickets too.
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So I'm going to give you that number here in a minute.
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I don't really think any market reactions are to that.
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That's really only information we have coming out today.
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But then we have the GDP.
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That number was 4.4.
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Then it got revised to 1.7.
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Now we're down to 0.7.
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So GDP is looking pretty dismal right now.
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But let me give you some good news if you're watching this video.
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This is going to be the bond market.
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The bond market, man, I didn't mean to show you that.
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The bond market's up 13 ticks today.
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What does that mean?
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Okay, all you have to understand is that number up through there.
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If it's green, that's good.
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The bigger the number, the bigger the adjustment.
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So here's what we're looking at.
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If that is up 13 ticks, that means mortgage rates
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are probably going to come down about 0.05 maybe.
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Well, let's look at a 2J due date chart right through here.
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Okay, so this is up and away.
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But let me give you a five day chart.
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Here's where it's pretty bad.
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So here's what I want to provide you guys.
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If you're a homeowner right now and you're up here
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and you're like, oh man, rates are 599.
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Then you called in and after two, three days,
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you're now almost six and a half.
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I'll just hold off again.
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I'm going to show you the tool again at the end of this
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because as this goes up, rates are getting better.
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So we're getting down to that.
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We're going to be at 599 here soon.
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Well, subscribe over there.
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Watch my videos each morning.
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So you can follow me along as we do this each day.
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So I'm expecting mortgage rates to continue their descent.
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It's probably going to be as big as this one yesterday.
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So we might be right in my range.
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My expectations of Q1 of this year.
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I'm expecting mortgage rates to be 5.875 to 6 and a quarter.
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Well, yeah, we're over that.
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You realized two weeks ago we're at 599.
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Well, don't miss it.
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Like I said, I got some tools for you here at the end.
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So let's get to the next piece of the puzzle.
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We want to go to here and here's the bond market.
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I'm going to throw you a little twist today.
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Here's what's happening in the bond market.
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We're going to go a little bit backwards.
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Okay, bonds are down today.
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It's good to see what oil's doing.
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Well, oil's up $95 a barrel.
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So it says oil jumps 4% on doubts linger
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over US back plan to protect the straighter for moves.
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So this is where I look at it and now say, okay,
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wait a second, we got oil, it's up 2%.
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That's not good news.
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But we have the Dow Jones up 132, the S&P up,
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the Dow Jones up, oil up, the 10-year try.
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It's kind of confusing.
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So here's what normally happens when we see all this happening.
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Okay, and it freaks people out.
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Over the last couple of weeks because of this debacle,
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we've had the Dow Jones was at $50,000.
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Now we're at $47, correction there.
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But now we're starting to see oil jump
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and that's what's causing this whole debacle.
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But today, even with oil just tatering
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at almost $100 a barrel,
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it's kind of confusing why people are jumping back
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into the Dow, the S&P, and the NASDAQ.
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And also over to crypto, if you look at this,
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this was $65,000 a coin about a week or two ago.
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Now it's almost $75,000.
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So the risk trade is a little bit back on.
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So that's what you sit here and you scratch your head.
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So what I need you to do is because the markets
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are a little bit on edge right now,
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make sure you subscribe over there
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so I can make this make sense for each day.
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So let's get over to the only data we got for today.
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Okay, so this is where it came in.
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Last reading behind my head,
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there was 15.5,000 people got jobs over the week.
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Okay, so what the economists are saying is,
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long as there's about 50,000 jobs created each month,
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we're okay, we're now at $9,000.
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That's below 50,000.
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So now that's signaling, okay, the jobs market
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isn't as strong as we think.
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So if you go back to it,
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you're thinking the Federal Reserve and Flations higher
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than we thought we hope or want it to be,
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we have oil, we know it's gonna be at $9,500 a barrel,
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that's gonna be huge inflationary pressures.
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We have a disable job market and maybe we have a war coming up,
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war, war, you know, in the Middle East,
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it is going on, how long is it gonna go?
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We got a Fed meeting in one day.
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We have all these events going on.
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We have the government shut down.
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You would think the markets would be crumbling,
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And that's what I sit here and say, okay,
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maybe it's not all that bad a news.
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So give me your thoughts down there below,
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but I do wanna provide you guys with this thing.
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I did find out how to create my mortgage calculators for free.
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So if you're a home owner, you wanna reverse mortgage,
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you wanna figure out how much can I afford?
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If you own your own business,
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how much in your income can we really qualify
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if you're looking for a loan?
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We even have a rental analysis computers in through here.
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So check them all out, they're free.
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Let me give me your comments down below
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if you chest gaze out.
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If you find any errors in those or you find a calculator,
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it's like, hey, this would be pretty cool.
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I mean, I'd love to be able to help you work on it
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to create that thing.
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But let's get over to this.
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Here's who I am and what I do.
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So I was talking to homeowners previously
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and I said, okay, if you're a homeowner right now
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and you're really missing these rates
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because you realize the average person right now
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who's calling us to refinance,
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they're saving 1.3% on their mortgage rate
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and they're saving over $500.
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Okay, so what I did up through there,
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I created rate watch 2.1, it's new and improved.
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Rate watch 2.0, you were able to provide me
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what rates you'd like to be contacted
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if you want to refinance.
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So what I do with this is I'm like,
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a lot of people put in, okay, I'm an 8%
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but when rates get to three, I'm looking to refinance.
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I was like, they're never gonna hit three.
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So I'm like, okay, what if I allow them to put in
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how much of a monthly savings?
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Because if I told you we're gonna save 500 bucks a month,
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you'd be like, okay, count me in.
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So that's what we did.
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So putting your rate, putting your monthly savings,
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I'll contact you when those rates hit.
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But also I wanna do one last thing here.
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There's some confusion over,
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I keep seeing this New York stuff saying,
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okay, New York is proposing a 50% wealth tax
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on the estate, so when somebody passes,
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like I said, folks, it's that time of year
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where it's the election season.
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I don't care what side you're on, do your fact checking.
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So what I did is I like, okay, let's go into see
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and how accurate is this information?
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Again, make sure you do your due diligence
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on your candidates or where you live.
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Don't just vote party line.
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And if you do, just make sure you're voting
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that candidate that you want.
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But let's get over to this.
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Here's what there was a proposal in New York
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to give a 50% estate tax for any residents
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in the state of New York once they pass.
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And you're sitting here thinking,
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okay, they already paid taxes on this
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and they paid taxes when they made it.
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And then as they invested it, they made,
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they paid yearly taxes.
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You guys comment down below, but here's,
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I just want you guys to understand
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how the taxes really add up for people that make decent money.
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Let's get first over to the tax rates, okay?
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So let's go down through here and say,
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let's say you're fortunate enough to make $250,000.
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Well, if you live in any of these states, California,
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Hawaii, New York, New Jersey,
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you can't make $250,000 survive, but let's just say you do.
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You make $250,000 and you live in New York, okay?
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You're gonna pay 35% in federal taxes.
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You're paying federal taxes.
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Yes, they pay federal taxes even if you make $250,000.
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Well, if you go over here,
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I gotta take my head out of the equation for a second.
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If you go over to here, you're gonna see,
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okay, the federal tax rate, this one was 37,
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but we're gonna say this person makes 250,
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so they're at 35, okay?
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So they're gonna pay a federal tax of 35%.
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Then they're gonna pay a New York tax of 10%,
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and now they're gonna pay another 3%,
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so they're almost paying 50% on their money.
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If you're making $250,000 or more in New York City,
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or Hawaii, or California,
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whew, you're paying a lot of taxes, my friend,
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and now they want a 50% estate tax, I might be moving.
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So make your decisions wisely.
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That's all I have to say.
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So let's get back to where we were at the beginning
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of all this because you're here
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for these things over through here.
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So what's my expectations for today?
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Oh, let's get over to the bond market.
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We have ADP coming in,
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and it's saying the jobs report is, eh?
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Okay, so there's really, I don't know any correlation
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what's going on with the markets right now.
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If you look at this, like I said, the stock market,
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we have no headlines.
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The only thing is I can just continue to say,
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okay, watch what's going on with the Iranian conflict
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That is going to be the direction of all these things.
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With the Federal Reserve's going to do tomorrow,
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they're not going to do anything.
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There's a 97, let's get over to the CME Fed Watch tool.
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If you're new to this, we can go over to this thing
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right through here and it tells us, basically,
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what the Fed's most likely to do in one day.
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So we go down through here and there is a 99.1% chance.
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The Federal Reserve will not be cutting rates,
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but if you really want to watch it and see what they do live,
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and how they'd affect the market,
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subscribe over there and join me tomorrow on our live event
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where I'll be having holding this to show you guys,
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the Fed's not going to cut rates,
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but you're going to see how markets react
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because do you realize two out of last three times
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a Fed cut, mortgage rates jumped,
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and jumped pretty big in each one of those events?
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So that's it for today folks.
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I will be back tomorrow morning with how this is going
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to resolve itself, and then we'll have a live event as well
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on the Federal Reserve.
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When they come out and tell us what they're going to do,
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we know what they're going to do.
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Then we're going to watch how the media asks questions
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and then the results of those,
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what they're going to do for these over through here.
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So that's it for today folks.
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If you're a homeowner, home buyer,
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hopefully you understand a little bit more about
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what's going on with these, and the wise behind it.
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Don't forget to subscribe down there below.
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And if you're a homeowner, home buyer, please join me
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on my website right through here.
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You can find a whole bunch of data,
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and we have over 7,500 videos on our YouTube channel
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to help inform you guys any step of the way
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you're looking to figure out this real estate thing.
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So thanks for watching.
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God bless, have a fantastic day out there,
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and one thing, please, please, please, be safe.
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Have a great day folks, and I'll see you tomorrow.