S2025 Ep262: 🚨 Fed Decision Tomorrow — No Rate Cuts… But Mortgage Rates Could Fall? (Here’s Why)

Well, top of the morning to you this March 17th, 2026, it is St. Paddy's day, folks.

And if you're Irish out there, congratulations.

Actually, my grandfather in law is Patrick Ryan.

So, contribute to him.

I am wearing green today.

But if you're watching this video, good news for you.

Rates are coming down.

Don't miss it this time.

If you're a homeowner, I'm going to give you a tool at the end of this video where you can

actually put in your mortgage information.

Let me track this for you because you realize mortgage rates were 5.99, like a week and

a half ago.

Did you miss it?

Well, don't miss it this time.

Put your information in at the end of this video.

But if you're here watching this video, most likely your homeowner, home buyer, heck, you

could be a realtor loan officer, trying to figure out what's going on these today.

Well, I got good news for you.

It looks like they're going to go down.

I told you it was going to go down yesterday.

They're going to go down even further today.

How do I know?

Well, let's get to today's news, folks.

So the first thing we want to do is go over through here.

The Federal Reserve, they're going to meet in one day, one day from now.

We're going to have a live event.

I'm going to have it live.

Actually, about an hour after they announced, and here's why the Federal Reserve is going

to come out and they're going to announce there's a 99 point something.

I'll show you that here in a little bit.

Chance, they're not going to do anything at this meeting.

But we really want to focus in on what they tell us after that when they have the median

coffers.

So I'm going to show you after the effect, what happens with rates at that point.

So here's what kind of the expectations are because here's what the Federal Reserve

watches.

They control that rate over there.

It's 3.5 to 3.75.

That's the Federal Funds rate.

All that is is inner bank lending.

If you're one bank and need money to kind of be solvent, you can lend money at that rate

over through there.

So that's basically the only thing that controls.

But here's what they focus in on.

They focus in on inflation.

This is the number they want it to.

It's almost at 3%.

Probably the next reading, once we get this oil debacle coming through, this is going

to go over 3%.

So the Fed's not going to do anything, but now they're watching this and this.

So we have the unemployment number.

It's at 4.4.

Kind of just ticked up just a little bit recently.

But we had ADP payroll numbers coming in this morning.

And yeah, I heard crickets too.

So I'm going to give you that number here in a minute.

I don't really think any market reactions are to that.

That's really only information we have coming out today.

But then we have the GDP.

That number was 4.4.

Then it got revised to 1.7.

Now we're down to 0.7.

So GDP is looking pretty dismal right now.

But let me give you some good news if you're watching this video.

This is going to be the bond market.

The bond market, man, I didn't mean to show you that.

The bond market's up 13 ticks today.

What does that mean?

Okay, all you have to understand is that number up through there.

If it's green, that's good.

The bigger the number, the bigger the adjustment.

So here's what we're looking at.

If that is up 13 ticks, that means mortgage rates

are probably going to come down about 0.05 maybe.

Well, let's look at a 2J due date chart right through here.

Okay, so this is up and away.

But let me give you a five day chart.

Here's where it's pretty bad.

So here's what I want to provide you guys.

If you're a homeowner right now and you're up here

and you're like, oh man, rates are 599.

I can refinance.

Then you called in and after two, three days,

you're now almost six and a half.

I'll just hold off again.

I'm going to show you the tool again at the end of this

because as this goes up, rates are getting better.

So we're getting down to that.

We're going to be at 599 here soon.

Well, subscribe over there.

Watch my videos each morning.

So you can follow me along as we do this each day.

So I'm expecting mortgage rates to continue their descent.

It's probably going to be as big as this one yesterday.

So we might be right in my range.

My expectations of Q1 of this year.

I'm expecting mortgage rates to be 5.875 to 6 and a quarter.

Well, yeah, we're over that.

You realized two weeks ago we're at 599.

So did you miss it?

Well, don't miss it.

Like I said, I got some tools for you here at the end.

So let's get to the next piece of the puzzle.

We want to go to here and here's the bond market.

I'm going to throw you a little twist today.

Here's what's happening in the bond market.

We're going to go a little bit backwards.

Okay, bonds are down today.

Why?

It's good to see what oil's doing.

Well, oil's up $95 a barrel.

So it says oil jumps 4% on doubts linger

over US back plan to protect the straighter for moves.

So this is where I look at it and now say, okay,

wait a second, we got oil, it's up 2%.

That's not good news.

But we have the Dow Jones up 132, the S&P up,

the Dow Jones up, oil up, the 10-year try.

It's kind of confusing.

So here's what normally happens when we see all this happening.

We'll see oil jump.

Okay, and it freaks people out.

It's just you seen.

Over the last couple of weeks because of this debacle,

we've had the Dow Jones was at $50,000.

Now we're at $47, correction there.

But now we're starting to see oil jump

and that's what's causing this whole debacle.

But today, even with oil just tatering

at almost $100 a barrel,

it's kind of confusing why people are jumping back

into the Dow, the S&P, and the NASDAQ.

And also over to crypto, if you look at this,

this was $65,000 a coin about a week or two ago.

Now it's almost $75,000.

So the risk trade is a little bit back on.

So that's what you sit here and you scratch your head.

So what I need you to do is because the markets

are a little bit on edge right now,

make sure you subscribe over there

so I can make this make sense for each day.

So let's get over to the only data we got for today.

It's ADP payroll.

Okay, so this is where it came in.

Last reading behind my head,

there was 15.5,000 people got jobs over the week.

Okay, so what the economists are saying is,

long as there's about 50,000 jobs created each month,

we're okay, we're now at $9,000.

That's below 50,000.

So now that's signaling, okay, the jobs market

isn't as strong as we think.

So if you go back to it,

you're thinking the Federal Reserve and Flations higher

than we thought we hope or want it to be,

we have oil, we know it's gonna be at $9,500 a barrel,

that's gonna be huge inflationary pressures.

We have a disable job market and maybe we have a war coming up,

war, war, you know, in the Middle East,

it is going on, how long is it gonna go?

We got a Fed meeting in one day.

We have all these events going on.

We have the government shut down.

You would think the markets would be crumbling,

but they're not.

And that's what I sit here and say, okay,

maybe it's not all that bad a news.

So give me your thoughts down there below,

but I do wanna provide you guys with this thing.

I did find out how to create my mortgage calculators for free.

So if you're a home owner, you wanna reverse mortgage,

you wanna figure out how much can I afford?

If you own your own business,

how much in your income can we really qualify

if you're looking for a loan?

Check it out.

We even have a rental analysis computers in through here.

So check them all out, they're free.

Let me give me your comments down below

if you chest gaze out.

If you find any errors in those or you find a calculator,

it's like, hey, this would be pretty cool.

I mean, I'd love to be able to help you work on it

to create that thing.

But let's get over to this.

Here's who I am and what I do.

So I was talking to homeowners previously

and I said, okay, if you're a homeowner right now

and you're really missing these rates

because you realize the average person right now

who's calling us to refinance,

they're saving 1.3% on their mortgage rate

and they're saving over $500.

Okay, so what I did up through there,

I created rate watch 2.1, it's new and improved.

Rate watch 2.0, you were able to provide me

what rates you'd like to be contacted

if you want to refinance.

So what I do with this is I'm like,

a lot of people put in, okay, I'm an 8%

but when rates get to three, I'm looking to refinance.

I was like, they're never gonna hit three.

So I'm like, okay, what if I allow them to put in

how much of a monthly savings?

Because if I told you we're gonna save 500 bucks a month,

you'd be like, okay, count me in.

So that's what we did.

So putting your rate, putting your monthly savings,

I'll contact you when those rates hit.

But also I wanna do one last thing here.

There's some confusion over,

I keep seeing this New York stuff saying,

okay, New York is proposing a 50% wealth tax

on the estate, so when somebody passes,

like I said, folks, it's that time of year

where it's the election season.

I don't care what side you're on, do your fact checking.

So what I did is I like, okay, let's go into see

and how accurate is this information?

Again, make sure you do your due diligence

on your candidates or where you live.

Don't just vote party line.

And if you do, just make sure you're voting

that candidate that you want.

But let's get over to this.

Here's what there was a proposal in New York

to give a 50% estate tax for any residents

in the state of New York once they pass.

And you're sitting here thinking,

okay, they already paid taxes on this

and they paid taxes when they made it.

And then as they invested it, they made,

they paid yearly taxes.

Is it fair?

You guys comment down below, but here's,

I just want you guys to understand

how the taxes really add up for people that make decent money.

Let's get first over to the tax rates, okay?

So let's go down through here and say,

let's say you're fortunate enough to make $250,000.

Well, if you live in any of these states, California,

Hawaii, New York, New Jersey,

you can't make $250,000 survive, but let's just say you do.

You make $250,000 and you live in New York, okay?

You're gonna pay 35% in federal taxes.

You're paying federal taxes.

Yes, they pay federal taxes even if you make $250,000.

Well, if you go over here,

I gotta take my head out of the equation for a second.

If you go over to here, you're gonna see,

okay, the federal tax rate, this one was 37,

but we're gonna say this person makes 250,

so they're at 35, okay?

So they're gonna pay a federal tax of 35%.

Then they're gonna pay a New York tax of 10%,

so that is now 45%,

and now they're gonna pay another 3%,

so they're almost paying 50% on their money.

If you're making $250,000 or more in New York City,

or Hawaii, or California,

whew, you're paying a lot of taxes, my friend,

and now they want a 50% estate tax, I might be moving.

So make your decisions wisely.

That's all I have to say.

So let's get back to where we were at the beginning

of all this because you're here

for these things over through here.

So what's my expectations for today?

Oh, let's get over to the bond market.

We have ADP coming in,

and it's saying the jobs report is, eh?

Okay, so there's really, I don't know any correlation

what's going on with the markets right now.

If you look at this, like I said, the stock market,

we have no headlines.

The only thing is I can just continue to say,

okay, watch what's going on with the Iranian conflict

and oil.

That is going to be the direction of all these things.

With the Federal Reserve's going to do tomorrow,

they're not going to do anything.

There's a 97, let's get over to the CME Fed Watch tool.

If you're new to this, we can go over to this thing

right through here and it tells us, basically,

what the Fed's most likely to do in one day.

So we go down through here and there is a 99.1% chance.

The Federal Reserve will not be cutting rates,

but if you really want to watch it and see what they do live,

and how they'd affect the market,

subscribe over there and join me tomorrow on our live event

where I'll be having holding this to show you guys,

the Fed's not going to cut rates,

but you're going to see how markets react

because do you realize two out of last three times

a Fed cut, mortgage rates jumped,

and jumped pretty big in each one of those events?

So that's it for today folks.

I will be back tomorrow morning with how this is going

to resolve itself, and then we'll have a live event as well

on the Federal Reserve.

When they come out and tell us what they're going to do,

we know what they're going to do.

Then we're going to watch how the media asks questions

and then the results of those,

what they're going to do for these over through here.

So that's it for today folks.

If you're a homeowner, home buyer,

hopefully you understand a little bit more about

what's going on with these, and the wise behind it.

Don't forget to subscribe down there below.

And if you're a homeowner, home buyer, please join me

on my website right through here.

You can find a whole bunch of data,

and we have over 7,500 videos on our YouTube channel

to help inform you guys any step of the way

you're looking to figure out this real estate thing.

So thanks for watching.

God bless, have a fantastic day out there,

and one thing, please, please, please, be safe.

Have a great day folks, and I'll see you tomorrow.

Bye bye.