S2025 Ep272: 👉 🚨 LIVE: Ceasefire, Oil Crash & Mortgage Rates — What Happens NEXT?---PART 2

Hi, this is Alex Cantrowitz.

I'm the host of Big Technology Podcast,

a longtime reporter and an on-air contributor to CNBC.

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So let's get over to what my expectations are.

If you're a homeowner, home buyer,

where a rate is going to go from here?

If you're an investor,

where's stocks bonds?

Cryptocurrency is going to go from here.

Let me give you my thoughts on all this.

Okay, so if I'm a homeowner, here's what I would do.

We have a tool right through here

and it's called ratewatch 2.1, plug in your information.

Let me know two things.

What rate would you like to refinance?

I'll call you to actually email you.

We'll go over what the new payment would be.

What the cost would be?

And what your, what your break even point's going to be?

That'll help you out.

Quite a bit.

You can see, okay, does this savings really make sense?

What's my break even point?

Let's see, you're looking to buy now.

Okay, so plug in your information up here.

So now let's say you're looking to buy

you're like, okay, the spring season's here.

I got three approved.

And five, nine, nine, now rates are six and a half.

What's my payment going to be?

What can I afford?

Where rates gonna go from here?

What could I do if rates hit seven percent?

Can I still afford this house?

Go to the calculator show.

That's why I created these things.

But follow me each day.

So here's my expectations.

If I'm a home owner right now

and put my information in there,

I'm not locking in right now.

Rates are gonna come down.

I know they're gonna come down.

More power work.

We're gonna come back on Friday.

If I'm around on Friday, I'll give you,

I'll try to do live events throughout the week.

They just kind of give you guys some,

some tidbits on what's going on.

But I'm just saying sit on the sidelines right now.

Don't lock in.

Rates have peaked.

They're peaked right now.

We got the bond market down.

What is it?

Double digits.

So rates are gonna come down.

It's kind of peaking down a little bit right here,

up 12.

Let's look at this five day chart.

Again, what you have to pay attention to

is as this goes down, rates are gonna go up.

So the reason why these went down, the Middle East.

So as the Middle East goes away,

will these go right back up?

I don't think they're gonna go all the way back up to 599

or back down to 599 because we have this inflation spike

that we're gonna have.

So rates are gonna ease back.

Hold on, we'll put your information in here

and make sure you get pre-approved.

Okay, so here's what I would do if I'm a home buyer

looking out there.

Get pre-approved at 7%.

You might think I'm crazy,

but if you can afford a house at 7%,

well if rates come down to six and a quarter,

six back to six, you can really afford that house.

So don't be, don't be house poor.

So let the economic news for this week really nothing.

We got manufacturing numbers.

If you go to this website, you go to Bloomberg.com.

So if you're a loan officer or a realtor,

you might wanna know the economic news

that's coming out for the week.

So go to this, here's what I wanna do,

and a lot of times this will just buffers,

but let's go down through here.

What I do is I pick, you know,

the most important things out here,

but down through here usually I pick one, maybe two,

because it gives you a slew of data.

But let's click it, click over.

Let's see if it buffers real quick.

Okay, so let's go through and make sure

we analyze every detail that's coming out this week.

And I'm gonna share the repercussions

that this is gonna have on the markets,

stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies,

and even mortgage rates.

So today, Monday, we got construction spending,

that's gonna be out in just a little bit.

I don't really think that's,

I'm not gonna pay attention to that.

Atlanta Fed GDP, last reading is two-three,

my apologies folks, they're expecting it to stay at two-three.

The Fed came out last week,

when the Federal Reserve came out

and told us they're not gonna cut rates,

they said they have an expectations of the GDP of 2.4,

actually stronger than where it is today.

That was the Fed just last week,

even during the middle of this conflict, okay?

So then on Tuesday, we get ADP payroll reports,

non-farm payroll productivity, unit labor cost,

meaning in fact, all this number is gonna give us

a lot of data that the Federal Reserve watches.

So let me just advise you what's gonna go on.

ADP payroll numbers come in,

this is gonna tell us how many people are employed.

I'll look at this number,

I usually don't put much credence in this,

but when you had a job support come in recently

and there was like 90,000,000 people to just disappear,

I wanna start looking at ADP numbers,

the initial jobless claims and things like that,

to really focus in on that.

Then you look at labor costs right there here,

this is gonna give, let me see if I can,

I don't wanna miss out my screen.

Unit labor cost, that's gonna tell us how inflationary labor is.

Manufacturing PMI, that's gonna actually tell us

the inflation rates on manufacturing,

there's like 51 to 51, it's gonna be stable.

To your know, what else have we got here?

On Wednesday, we have nothing on Wednesday either.

Then Thursday, we continue, every Thursday,

just so you guys know,

we have initial jobless claims and continued claims.

This is the money ball right now for the Fed.

They're like, okay, if the tariffs thing

were inflationary enough and we did have some inflation.

Now this oil thing is gonna really push up inflation,

we're gonna continue to monitor that

because those two events are really pushing

inflation levels really high.

So then you look at continued jobless claims

and initial claims, that's where it is.

So if you see these stable,

well you're gonna see the Federal Reserve just hold off.

So the numbers right now look like this.

Continued claims is 1.8 million.

It's been steady at that for months and months and months.

If you've got the initial jobless claims,

last reading, sorry, it's right above my head,

I'm trying to get it in there for you guys to see.

Last reading was 205.

They expect the initial jobless claims,

remember the initial jobless claims

to uppick to 211, nothing major.

Do you see this go up to 3, 4, 500?

Then you start to freak out,

especially continued claims.

Okay, then let's get to Friday.

Usually Friday, we start getting some inflation numbers

but this week, really nothing.

Just retail inventory, the Michigan consumer sentiment.

I don't really follow a lot of these things

down through here, really nothing.

So this week, last week, we had just a slew of information.

This week, it's kind of stagnant.

Just watch oil in the Middle East.

That's all you have to focus in on.

So as you follow oil right through here,

you're gonna see, as this comes down,

you're gonna see mortgage rates follow.

And as rates come down,

you're gonna see the stock market jump up as well.

So sure, love, tacos.

It is what it is.

So I don't, folks, I don't really care

which side of the aisle you're on.

All I want you to do is do your due diligence.

Everybody has their own reasonings for things.

You know, I guess, I guess I would say,

you know, am I an immigrant or a white person

or whatever, let me just say,

I'm second generation.

All my grandparents were from Italy.

I'm blessed to be here.

I'm truly blessed to be here.

I came from a small little steel coal mine town.

Now I live in Chicago.

I have a nice house,

coal, cars, and this and that.

I'm not bragging about those things.

It's the opportunities this country gives you.

And, you know, I'm pro-positive, you can do it.

So watch my show each day, folks.

My goal is to help you understand all these things.

So let's get to one last piece of the puzzle.

So you're here with me today.

Let's go to Yahoo Finance for kicks.

I just wanna go over to our memory

had stock top Tuesdays.

Let's get over and see how theirs are fairing for the day.

So if we go down through here, the rate update.

Now let's see, we were positive still,

with this pool back in the stocks.

Look at this, this is pretty good.

We have, this is, what I did here,

is I created a stock top Tuesdays.

I have a lot of friends, family, nephews, nieces.

They're like, Uncle Dan, we really love to understand

how all this stuff works.

So what they started doing is I started putting

a stock portfolio together to help you guys

understand how all this works.

And here's our portfolio.

Look, it's up one and a half percent today.

But we created this last,

about, you know, almost about a year ago.

We're up 12%.

I'll take that, especially with the correction

that we just had, it was like a 6% correction.

I said the markets were a little frothy.

But these investments are doing pretty good.

If you go down through here,

these are the things that we purchased.

And I basically explained to you guys why we did it.

Things down here, like steel ETFs.

These are steel companies that you can monitor,

financial companies, and the whole works.

But folks, my whole goal each day

is to really help you understand stocks, bonds,

cryptocurrencies, and these things over here.

The reason why I do this is I don't,

you'll probably join me, you know who I am.

My name's Dan Frill.

I'm actually a licensed mortgage loan officer

at all 50 states, all 50 states as well as Puerto Rico.

If you're here, if you're watching this,

you're either a loan officer or a realtor.

Thank you for joining me.

Or you're a consumer looking to maybe,

can I refinance?

Does it make sense to refinance at this point?

Or are these rates so high?

Is it really making housing unaffordable?

Please reach out to us.

Don't disqualify yourself.

That's what most people do.

Why do most companies don't succeed?

Well, people don't even start them.

So you can't really fail unless you really try.

My goal is to help you guys understand these

and see how much of a lower rate you can get

or can you even buy a house.

But I'm not here to follow home ownership,

folks, I don't think everybody should own a house.

But if you really wanna do, if you really want to,

I'd love to help you with this.

So my thoughts for today is mortgage rates.

They're six and a half, 6.53.

They are gonna come back.

They're not gonna come back huge.

They're up 18 ticks right now.

But this is the chart over a five day chart.

This is bad.

Okay, it's down, down, down, down on a way.

Let's go to a two day chart.

If we can recover up to here today,

I'd say this is a positive day.

So this will bring rates back under six and a half percent.

That's what I'm expecting today.

And if this war, if this conflict in the Middle East

is truly a ceasefire work at close to an end,

you're gonna see the stocks just rally from here.

And you're gonna see bonds follow suit as well.

Coming, the prices are going up.

You'll just coming down.

That's how all this stuff works.

So we got the MBS's up 21.

We started this one, why is it when we started this?

Maybe in the teens.

So we got MBS's up 21.

Let's go see the stock market's doing it up 799 points.

It was up 900 points.

That's good news, but the big news of the day

right through here, oil prices.

Watch this oil right over here.

Don't be deceived when they keep saying,

oh, oil's at $120, $130 a barrel.

Please, watch oil not brand crude

because this is really the number that we follow.

So that's it for the day.

The economic calendar for this week is pretty slim.

You got the Federal Reserve.

They're just gonna sit on the sidelines

and they're gonna do nothing.

But the concern right now on Wall Street

is the Federal Reserve actually gonna increase rates.

And there's more of a chance

that they're gonna increase rates than cut rates.

Because if you go over, let's just look

at the next meetings in, let's say July.

July or June or the next few meetings,

there's a bigger percent chance

that they're gonna increase rates than cut rates

right through here.

So in the July June meetings,

there's an 84% chance they're gonna keep rates

where they are, but there's a 15% chance

they're gonna increase rates.

Little confused, let's subscribe over there.

So every day I post this video

and you actually can understand now

what's really going on.

So if there's any questions out there,

I would love to answer those for you.

If not, I am going to head out.

I'll get this posted all over social media.

My team is here available for you guys.

If you need some assistance with this today,

but please do me a favor.

Go to our calculator pace.

I created all these myself.

And the reason why I did this

is so you guys can use common sense calculators

to just determine, you know, some of these things.

For example, it doesn't make sense to refinance.

There's a tool right there and all these are free.

I'm going to go down through here

mortgage payment fire mortgage program finder.

What program are you, do you think you're going to qualify for?

And this will actually tell you exactly

where you will qualify for in the wise.

But that's it for today folks.

So I'm expecting rates to drop below six and a half percent.

The reason being is and mortgage bonds are rallying

now up 23% jumping right up through there.

And we also have stocks.

They are stocks are at a almost up 800 points for today.

So this, my friends, I'm going to say is a Cinderella story.

We got the Dow Jones, the S.O.P. and the NASDAQ

all up and away.

We got oil actually down almost nine to 10%.

We have cryptocurrency.

Let's push our laptop cryptocurrencies is up $71,000 coin.

So all the way across the board, it is looking good.

So don't freak out, relax, be safe, enjoy your day.

And put your put my mom in your purse if you would.

I will be back tomorrow if I can

and to give you guys an update on what in the heck

is going on with these and the wise.

Oh, we do have a question here.

Let's jump over to some questions.

If you guys have questions, please ask them.

That's what I'm here for.

I'll be going most of the day or the rest of the day.

And I don't know what the week's going to look like,

but is it right time to buy homes these days?

Yeah, there's, I guess the question I would ask is,

and here's some people.

When's the optimum time to have a child?

You know, if you're married, it's like,

okay, should we have a child now, should we?

So buying a house is up to you.

You know, what is your area doing?

Can you afford it?

Are you going to stay there for a long time?

So let's just go through the punch list of this.

And that's a fantastic question.

If you really want to buy a house, does it make sense?

Can you afford it?

That's the number one thing.

Can you afford it?

First of all, you're paying in rent, okay?

You don't know.

Okay, go to some of my calculators.

It'll kind of do the pros and cons.

There's even things in there, should you rent or buy?

Okay, so now, what is your credit score?

What kind of rate can you get?

Let's just really drive down that payment.

Can you really afford those payments?

Okay, but before you go there,

what is your credit score?

Let's clean up some of these things for you.

So go to your go to credit scores and more.com.

Here's a website I actually created a couple of years ago.

Credit stores and more.com.

I'm giving you all the tools right at your fingertips, folks.

So if you go to credit scores and more.com,

you're going to go right through here.

I created this to help people understand their credit.

Okay, so you go down through here.

This is going to give you tools for free credit scores.

So click that, it's actually going to, it's free.

It's free.

It's going to be advantage scores.

Be careful.

Banks right now, when you're qualifying for a mortgage,

they use what's called your FICO score.

You really want to get your FICO score?

Hit this one right over through here.

I don't, I can't get there from my site

because I'm using bank and software right now

to block me, but that's going to take you to my FICO.

That's your true credit score that banks use.

So what is your credit score?

What kind of program do you fit into?

What do you qualify for?

What's your payment?

How much do you do?

You're interested in all these?

You can find right through here with the tools I have.

Here's your mortgage rates.

Follow me on mortgage rates each day.

So what do you have so far?

You have a system ready to hear

to figure out what your credit scores are.

Then you have a tools right through here.

You can go over here and find all the different programs

that are available for you.

And then from there, you can go over and from that,

you can say, okay, well, now I can fit

for one of these programs right through here.

That's basically where the rates are.

So can I afford that house?

Well, that's where you're hoping to help you guys decide.

And if you're a homeowner,

you're looking to see if maybe refinancing makes sense.

Please reach out to us at the rate update

and also check our tools out.

So what is the rate that's optimal

for you when it comes to refinancing?

So folks, that is it for today.

Mortgage rates, they're gonna get better.

They're 26 and they're continuing to rally.

Stocks, well, the threat right now is the Iranian conflict

but stocks are still continuing to rally up through there.

There are up 761 points.

So it is a Cinderella story folks.

So rates are down, stocks are up,

oil is down and it looks like there might be

some peace in the Middle East.

That's all we can wish for.

So thanks for watching folks.

Please subscribe over there.

So every day I post a video you get alert.

And if you're out there and need some help with the mortgage

if you're looking to buy or refinancing,

I'd love to be able to help you.

And hopefully now you understand a little bit more

on how mortgage rates work and all the tools

that you have at your fingertips

to help you maneuver all this and more.

So thanks for watching folks.

Greatly appreciate it.

I'll be driving the rest of the day.

So hopefully you'll see it tomorrow live.

If you got any questions, email me, text me

or reach out to my team.

We would love to help.

But other than that, stay safe out there.

Be blessed.

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