S2025 Ep272: 👉 🚨 LIVE: Ceasefire, Oil Crash & Mortgage Rates — What Happens NEXT?---PART 2

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Hey folks, happy Monday to you.

So what a reversal in things we're gonna have today.

So we might have a ceasefire in the in Iran.

So that is actually helping the markets quite a bit today's.

So folks, my name is Dan Freo.

My goal is to explain to you guys

what the heck's gonna go on with these things today

more of your traits and the wise behind it.

Just wanna let you know the reason

why I'm doing a live event is my mom's not doing too good.

So we had to put her on a hospice.

So I'm heading back to a West Virginia right after the show.

So if you need anything, my team is here to help you guys.

Without further ado, I wanna get over to these things

so you guys can understand

what's gonna go on more of your traits this week.

That's probably gonna go on stocks,

bonds, cryptocurrencies, and oil.

So without further ado, folks, let's get to today's show.

So if you can hear me, let me know.

Please just give me a thumbs up.

I know you guys don't like the comments.

So what happened to rates?

Rates worth six and a half percent.

They were five, nine, nine, just three weeks ago.

So what's going on?

It's the Iranian war.

So we have, we're gonna look at oil.

Let's see where oil's going.

That's basically the direction

and where everything's gonna go

because what people are saying

or what the economists are saying

is oil's gonna increase inflation everywhere.

Think of it.

I wanna show you what diesel prices are doing.

Diesel prices are like five bucks plus a gallon.

So if you have diesel, the thing you know,

trucks use to get things everywhere.

If we have that skyrocketing,

and inflation's gonna go up.

So without further ado, folks,

let's get to today's rates

because I think we're gonna have

a nice little reprieve today.

So mortgage bonds, they're up 12 ticks.

This is great news.

So if you're new to my channel,

we watch this thing right over through here.

It's the mortgage bond.

All you have to understand is this.

That number over there,

or the word says green, it's 12.

Let's pay attention to that

because on Friday, when we have a live event,

remember when we were watching this,

it went for, I think it was down like 68

by time we were done, it was down almost 100 points.

So as this goes down, that means mortgage rates go up.

You can see right through here,

all these little mortgage bubbles.

That means mortgage companies, banks, credit unions,

they adjusted their rates.

And if you look at them, that's better, better, better.

It's all saying worse, worse, worse, worse.

It means mortgage rates are gonna go up.

So what's the data that we have this week?

Well, here's one piece of the puzzle

I want you guys to understand.

I ran threatens US treasury buyers.

And what they're saying is,

well, if you're buying US treasuries,

I mean, you're gonna support the American efforts

in this, so that's kind of the headlines

that you're gonna see with the sum of these.

So they're saying, okay, don't buy treasury bills

or bonds because it's only helping the US.

So we know how treasuries work

when it comes to interest rates.

But the biggest news right now is that oil prices

were at $119 if you're watching oil,

the real oil number we're watching.

It was $119, when was it?

It was about a month ago, let's see,

maybe it got to $119, a barrel,

but where is it right now?

Where it's coming down?

And it's coming down nicely.

It's at $90 a barrel.

That's gonna help the inflation front.

What's going on is they're saying, okay,

there's gonna be a ceasefire

because President Trump says, okay,

if you wanna start bombing energy plants,

we're just gonna blow your oil field to smithering,

and then you won't have any oil.

And that's kind of the gist of what's going on behind the scene.

So right through here, you saw the headlines right here,

it down jumps 800 points.

I told you guys, as soon as this war's over,

you're gonna see the stock market just rally

and you're gonna see mortgage rates coming down.

So did you miss these mortgage rates?

Like $599 about two weeks ago?

I don't think so.

They might be back.

I'll give you some tools so you can track these things.

But let's get over to this piece of the puzzle.

Oil, fuel prices, diesel prices.

Look down through here.

Here's where diesel prices are right now.

So in a month ago, on February 17th,

diesel in the East Coast was $376.

Now it's $5 bucks a gallon.

So this is where inflation's really gonna pick up

because diesel, think of diesel.

It's an every truck that's pretty much out there.

So you're gonna have this stuff, skyrocketing.

If you go down to, look at California.

This is crazy.

If you guys live in California, give me a comment down there.

Your gas is a dollar, look at the golf coast for 80.

You're almost two bucks higher than them.

Maybe you guys need to do something out there.

Okay, so with the chats we got,

can you guys hear me praying for your mom?

Say thank you so much, Com Chaos.

Thanks for joining me today as well.

So yeah, kind words out.

My mom should be 88 on May 14th.

So I don't know if she's gonna make it,

but I'll be heading back there today.

So give me prayers if you guys don't mind,

but let's get over to this.

Here's my mom.

So I've been trying to do videos for her.

This is my mom and dad.

This was a couple of years ago.

My dad passed, he was 91 years old.

This is a time when me and my wife,

and I told him we took my parents out

for some ice cream and dinner.

This is West Virginia.

It's the all the hills in the background.

So dad, you're sorely missed.

And mom, I'll be seeing you in a couple hours.

So let's get over the stock market.

We got the stock market up 800 points.

I told you this thing would come back.

So here's what you guys need to look for.

Watch the Iranian conflict.

Watch a little.

Where you see that stuff going,

you're gonna see everything else.

Now I'm gonna make a comment here,

and this is gonna be political.

There was a, the head of the Democratic Party,

I forget what his name is.

He came out, I think it was this morning saying,

he's against ice going to the airports

because he thinks that he's,

they're gonna kill people and main people.

And that was actually his comment.

So, and I hate getting political,

but folks, please calm down the rhetoric.

That's what's causing all these headaches.

So support our military, support our country.

If you're here, that's all I wanna say.

So here's what we have.

We have the Dow Jones up 800 points.

It's all because of the,

maybe the conflict's gonna be over.

So you're gonna see oil retracting.

And especially if this is sign-sealed deliver,

what you're having right now is,

Iran's coming in saying,

we have no negotiations with Trump right now,

but then you watch our news and they're saying,

yeah, there's, there's, it looks like

there might be an end in sight, maybe in the next week.

So that's why the markets are doing what they're doing.

So who do you believe when we're gonna continue

to watch those things?

But if you look through over through here,

the Dow Jones was up 900 points.

The bond markets, man, this is where,

this is where it's really getting kind of confusing.

So if you're watching mortgage rates,

here's what you watch.

So hopefully you watch me on a daily basis.

It's right through here.

This is, here's a five day chart.

Look at this thing.

And what you have to understand is,

down is bad.

Okay, rates up here were about 599.

Okay, let's go back a month.

Okay, back through here, rates were 599.

You can see how as this goes down, it rates go up.

So today, you know, I expected this,

especially with oil just rallying.

This would be up 20, 30 points.

So we're gonna continue to watch this

on a daily basis, but this oil in the Middle East

is basically everything right now.

Let's go to the economic calendar.

There's nothing this week.

We had last week, think of what we had last week.

We had the Federal Reserve come in.

They didn't do anything.

There's also a chance now,

maybe if this conflict keeps going,

the Fed might raise rates.

Yeah, wait, let's get over to the,

what the Federal Reserve,

this is the calculator we watch here.

This is, well, this is what the Federal Reserve watches

right through here.

They watch inflation, the PCE,

this number went up recently.

And so this is gonna be over 3% in the next reading

because of oil.

Then you got to unemployment rate.

This is the only thing saving us right now.

The unemployment numbers are pretty good.

Anything under 5% is full employment.

So you have full employment.

You have inflation that's way over target

and with the Federal Reserve's monitoring.

So now what they're saying is,

could the Federal Reserve actually increase rates?

Actually, yeah, increase rates.

Let's go down.

We're gonna go to the CME Fed Watch tool in 37 days.

Remember, we kept going here and we laughed,

okay, the Federal Reserve's not gonna cut.

There's a 99% chance.

Now here's the concern I have.

I don't think this is gonna play out.

But let's get over to what the next meetings

are gonna give us when it comes to the Federal Reserve.

So this chart actually tells us,

what's the probability of what the Federal Reserve's gonna do

at the next meeting?

Heck, the meetings all the way through the end of 2027.

You notice down here, there's nothing.

There's a 90% chance that the Federal Funds Rate

is gonna be three and a half, three, seven, five.

Hope you can see it up through there.

That's what the Federal, that's what they control.

They control this rate right through here,

the Federal Funds Rate.

So currently it's a three and a half, three, seven, five.

If you go over to here, three and a half, three, seven, five,

it's gonna be there all year and all of you next year, mostly.

So now they're saying there is no Fed cuts on the table.

So now what do you do?

Well, let me go over to this thing.

Here's, I want to just give you some insights.

Or the last few days, I'm like,

I don't know what you should do.

You know, if you're a homeowner,

you're kind of in the pap emergency.

If you're a homeowner, you already got your rate.

You're already locked in, you know your payment.

I can give you some tools to show you

maybe how I can bring down those payments

as rates come down.

But if you're a home buyer, no, what do you do?

You're like, okay, rates were five, nine, nine, nine,

nine, six and a half, people are saying

they're gonna go to seven.

If this continues to go on, how high are they gonna go?

Well, if you really want to try to figure out

where rates are going, maybe even, you know,

what kind of payment this looks like.

I'm gonna give you a tool here.

This is several tools, all these are free.

Okay, I don't want you guys to pay for anything.

I'm probably as cheap as you guys are.

So let's get over here.

Here's the first thing I want to go through

and then I'll go back to what you guys should do

and I'll give you some tools on what you did to do

if you're a home owner, home buyer.

So if you're a home owner, a home buyer,

here's tools for you.

If you see any prices in here,

if you go to my channel and you're like,

okay, I really want this calculated down here,

does it make sense to refinance?

So click it, scroll down through here.

If there's any prices down through here, let me know.

All these should be free, just download it.

Okay, it's gonna give you some tools.

These are the things I created.

You're gonna plug in your numbers.

It's gonna tell you exactly what your payment is.

Does it make sense to refinance?

Well, let's get over this.

Here's what my thoughts are behind on this.

I kept saying, okay.

When this conflict is over,

let's just kind of go pre,

and kind of like we were doing with COVID.

You know, a lot of economists are coming out saying,

okay, we really have to use 2019 numbers

because that's basically pre-COVID.

That's before the kind of the world went crazy.

Okay, so now what are we seeing?

When we're seeing all these rates jumping

and people are like, okay, I can't afford this house now.

And I missed it if I'm looking to refinance.

Well, let's get over what my thoughts are on this.

I think rates are gonna come down

not as fast as they went up.

Kind of like oil prices and gas.

You're gonna go to the pump in the next week or two.

They're gonna be flat.

Even if you see oil prices kind of crumbling

like they're doing right now.

So we got oil, let's go back.

You really want to pay attention to the oil.

Not oil is, it's down almost seven bucks a share.

So now it's at $7.90 a barrel.

This was $60, $60 a barrel a couple months ago.

Let me show you.

Down through here, here's where oil was down through here.

This is a huge mass of spike.

And this is hugely inflationary.

So what is the economy?

What are mortgage rates?

What are the trade off of?

Anxiety levels on Wall Street and inflation fears.

So let's break this down.

Let me know what you guys think.

We have, and you think of all this chaos and it's crazy.

Okay, so first thing is, let's just look at

our where we are today.

We have all these things about ice

and the Homeland Security.

We need Homeland Security folks.

I don't care what side of the aisle you're on, we need it.

Okay, so we have a government that shut down, okay?

We have Middle East war, we'll say it's war.

Then we have Russian Ukraine, remember that?

Then we have Gaza, remember that?

We have a midterm election, remember that's coming up.

So all I'm asking you guys to do is just do your due diligence.

Like each day, come in here, watch me for five minutes.

I'm gonna tell you exactly what's going on in the markets

and the wise behind it.

But what you guys to do this time, please do me a favor.

Do me one favor.

Before you go out and vote this year, do your due diligence.

Go to chat, GPT, do all this stuff.

Really doing it, a breakdown of your candidate.

So you can figure out what's going on

because it plays a role in all these things over through here.

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