S2025 Ep275: The Rate Update —Mortgage Rates Hit This After Iran News — Lock or Float?

Trump saying that the U.S. is in negotiations with Iran, signalling that

Tehran had offered an unspecified present related to energy flows as a show of good faith.

Meteor reports in the U.S. and Israel say a diplomatic push for peace is gathering

peace, suggesting the Trump administration may be seeking a one-month cease-fire.

So yesterday, about one o'clock, the market just completely turned. And I was like,

what is going on? Well, this news broke, and it looks like there might be peace plans

in the Middle East. So what's going to go on with these? Because I keep telling you guys,

you've got to follow oil. So if oil is going to start declining, I'm going to show you here in a

second. We're actually just plummeted yesterday. We're mortgage rates follow. That's what we're

going to talk about in today's show, folks. My name is Dan Frio. I'm the host of the rate update.

I'm also a licensed mortgage loan officer licensed in all 50 states. As well as Puerto Rico, my slogan,

one application, one credit pool, I'm going to compare your loan to over 30 different lenders. How?

I'll explain that to you at the end of this video. You're here for these. So let's get to it.

So this was odd yesterday. I'm sitting here and I watch oil and I watch mortgage rates.

And then all of a sudden, yesterday, about noonish, the oil market just plummeted. It's not a

gradual descent, like you see in most cases. It was just a crash. And then if you go over to mortgage

rates, well, the mortgage bond market, here's what I follow. I'm a mortgage advisor. So I don't

really follow rates because it's behind the curve. Let me explain. Mortgage rates are basically

computed or figured out by this right there here. This is a mortgage bond. So the yield on this

bond is the biggest component of your mortgage rate. All you have to understand is this.

If that number up there is green, that means mortgage rates are getting a little bit better.

The bigger the green, the bigger the adjustment. Here's what I'll be yesterday. Let's go over to oil.

Here's what he had oil. Oil, right in the middle of the day, just crash. Boom. Just,

well, let's go over to the bond market and you see a similarity right through here.

About the same time you had the bond market just go, whoop. And again, when this goes up,

that's good news for rates. So as you see oil moving, that's what you're going to see the mortgage

rates doing. So now we have to figure out, okay, we have all these numbers today. I'm going to show you

how oils playing a big part of this. But then we have to also look at the economic data,

because once all this smoke string goes away, where rates going to go, I'm calling it right now,

this is the peak. But how low are they going to go? Are they going to go all the way back to 599?

I don't think so. But let's dive into the numbers, the economic news. Try to figure this out,

because if you're a homeowner, home buyer, I want to put you in the best position you can be.

So the first thing we're going to do is let's go to stock market. The stock market, it is up,

it's up down, it's up, today it's already up. It was up 500. It's pre-preaving a little bit,

but it's all based on oil. Okay, because they're saying, okay, this is huge inflationary numbers.

The higher inflation, higher cost of everything, that means corporations won't make as much money,

because their costs are going up. But if you have inflation coming down, that means corporations'

costs are going to come down, they'll make more profits. And that's what you're seeing right

through here. So if you see, this is oil coming down, it is down 3%, under $90 a barrel. That's

at least a start. We got the 10-year treasury right behind me. That's going down as well. So this

so far, it's a Cinderella story. We've got all the markets over there, up, oil down. Let's go

over to cryptocurrency, see what it's doing, creep our fingers crossed, and it is up. So in this

so far, it's a Cinderella story. Let's get over to the economic news we have this week.

That might just upset the Apple card. So if we go to the economic calendar, we have on Monday,

there was nothing on Tuesday. We got the manufacturing PMI and servicing PMI. This basically came out

at point. And today we have nothing. But Thursday, we're going to have some pieces of the puzzle

on the economy, especially with the Federal Reserve watches. The Federal Reserve watches these things

right there here. They control, they try to control inflation, but they watch the inflation

numbers with a PCE and they also look at the jobs report. Well, this week and every week, we get

the jobs report from right through here. This is initial jobless claims. We get every Thursday. We

also get continued claims. And we monitor that reason. Why is we want to see where the employment

numbers are going? Is an unemployment going to tick up? Tick down with the readings that we had

so far on initial jobless claims, continued claims, the unemployment rates, and even ADP, ADP

doesn't really paint a bad picture when it comes to the jobs market. And even the Federal Reserve

command said, okay, we're really not concerned about jobs right now. It's the inflation and oil.

So that's what we're focusing in on right now. So now, what's the likelihood the Federal Reserve

is going to cut rates in 35 days? I know we're going to do this every day. And I'm just going to

show you the probabilities. You kind of get a kick out of it. If mainstream media, they're going to

come in and say, okay, now the Fed might be thinking of increasing rates. They're not going to

increase rates in an environment that we're seeing right now. Do you think they should? Okay,

so let's go down through here. Here's the probabilities of all this stuff. There is a 95% chance

at the next meeting. They're not going to do anything. If you screw all the way down,

they're not going to do anything until the end of 2027. So based on this, there's no rate cuts

in the cards for the Fed. So now we're going to say, okay, now what's going to go off mortgage rates?

That's why you're here. Let's get over to it. Follow crude right now. So as crude goes down,

so will rates. But after that, we got to get back to the fundamentals. We'll go back and start

looking at where's inflation. The next few readings are going to be hot because of the oil numbers.

You know it, but a lot of economists are going to sit there and say, whoa, inflation spiking,

but you have to follow oil because oil's about 40% of our inflationary numbers. So now hopefully

you learned a little bit on today's market, you follow oil. And that's where the rates are going to

go. And that's also where the stock market's going to go. So if you see oil coming down,

everything else is going to go opposite. You're going to see the markets rally. You're going to see

crypto currents coins rally. And you're also going to see mortgage bonds rally. And as mortgage

bonds rally, mortgage rates come down. Because like I explained is this chart goes up.

Mortgage rates go down. So that's what's happening today in the markets. So mortgage rates, I'm

thinking they're going to come down a little bit as we get more and more feedback on, you know,

what the Middle East is doing. Is there a compromise? We haven't told Friday. Iran has

until Friday to do something. So it's going to be basically hate to say it. It's going to be

Armageddon on Friday where the markets are going to cheer a peace agreement in the Middle East.

And that's what I'm voting for on my end. So folks, my name is Dan Frio. I'll tell you a little

bit about me. I'm a licensed mortgage loan officer in all 50 states as well as Puerto Rico. I've

been doing this for over 35 years. I'd love to help you navigate maybe home ownership or maybe

trying to refinance to save yourself some money. So my engineers changed something yesterday

just starting you guys a curveball over on ratewatch 2.1. We call it ratewatch 2.1. You used to be able

to put your rate in there. So we can track rates for you. So when they get kind of where you want

them to be, we'll call you a text you an email me. A lot of people just kept putting in rates that I

know they're never going to hit. So what I figured I do is we would change that. It's going to stay

ratewatch 2.1. But I want to know how much money a month you want to save. So if you're like Dan,

if I could save 300 bucks a month, call me, text me, email me. I'd love to go over the numbers.

How much is it going to cost me? What's my break even point? That's what we'll do. But if you're

looking to buy, maybe you're looking to refinance to pay off some bills and things like that.

I'm going to have a live event next week to show you how maybe build consolidation loans using

the equity in your house isn't that bad of an idea. But it'll be up to you guys on what to do.

So check out next week about a bunch of live events coming up and we have Dave Savage. He's a

broken mortgage broker trainer. I've known him for actually, since I got in the business.

I was one of the first interviews he did years ago and now I'm going to have him on my show.

Just saying it's showing him my gratitude to help you loan officers out there,

understand how all this plays a role in your business. But if you're a homeowner,

home buyer out there, hopefully you understand a little more about how all this works and a

little bit more behind the scenes. So if you need my help with anything out there,

if you're looking to buy refinance, even a reverse mortgage, I'd love to help you out.

Go to the rateupdate.com. You can reach out to me there. You can put in your application.

You can even chat with me on the application there. So thanks for watching. God bless,

have a fantastic afternoon. I'll see you tomorrow morning and see how these things go.

But my call for today is rates of peat and they're going to start descending from here.

How low are they going to go? Subscribe over there. We'll talk about it every day and watch this go

down. Thanks for watching folks. Be safe out there. I'll see you next time. Bye bye.