S2025 Ep287: 🚨 LIVE: Mortgage Rates Are Moving FAST — Week in Review + What’s Next PART 2

But then on Tuesday, we got the consumer confidence.

And I'm like, how in the world is anybody confident right now?

The rating was 91.

I don't think we were over 91 in a long time.

They expected to drop down below 87.

It actually came in higher than it was previously.

That's a head scratcher.

Then we go to the Jold Index, job openings.

This is saying the job openings and labor transfers, they're good.

So the labor market is good, good, good.

You go to ADP.

Markets, remember I came out the other day

and I said ADP payroll numbers.

Here's all I want.

If we can keep the jobs numbers in about 50,000 a month, that's good.

I mean, at least it's not job deterioration.

You're not going to see the unemployment rate go up.

It shouldn't go up.

ADP came in and the last rating they changed,

they said with 66,000, this was adjusted.

I don't know what it was previously.

I think it was around 50.

They expected to come in around 41,000.

I'm like, I hope this comes in over 50.

And it came in.

So that's great news when it comes to there.

Retail sales, manufacturing numbers, everything came in kind of at point.

Then we get the initial jobless claims and continued claims.

This kind of rounds out the jobs report number.

Initial jobless claims, the last reading was 2.11.

Can you guys see that 2.11?

The reading was supposed to say, okay, uptick just a little bit.

I'm telling you guys, I don't know where these numbers are going to come in,

but I just don't think they're going to fall off a cliff.

Well, it came in at 202, better than last reading, better than expectations.

Then we're going to say, okay, if they got let go, it wasn't that.

It wasn't as many people as we thought, but there's still 202,000 people lost their jobs.

Well, did some people get able to get jobs?

So the unemployment rate doesn't go up.

Well, let's go up to there.

Last reading continued claims, 1.81,

it's supposed to go to 1.84, went to 1.84.

That's an increase.

We're going to see how this continues to go.

Is it going to continue to go build and build?

1.9 would be dismal.

So we're going to say, you know, we're in the low mid 1.8 range.

We're going to give this an okay.

And then Friday we had average hourly payroll and everything else.

And it's still doing good.

If you have inflation at 3 and you have hourly earnings at 3.8,

you're still, I know it doesn't seem like it,

but you're still exceeding the inflationary numbers.

So if you look at all these numbers that saying, okay, not bad.

So that's the numbers that we have there.

Now let's get over to next week.

And again, folks, just watch oil and watch the straight of our moves.

If it opens up, then rates are going to come down.

That's all you've got to really figure out.

This is information saying, okay, once all this is behind us,

where are we going to go from here?

This is also going to give you a beat on what's going to go on stocks.

I'll talk about that in just a little bit.

Next week, we're going to get this.

I'm an ISM manufacturing, the employment, PMI, and prices.

This is going to give us kind of inflation numbers.

Okay, we're going to start getting a read of the inflation next week.

Tuesday, ADP always gives us their payroll numbers.

They're going to say, well, there it comes in.

I don't really know what those are going to come in at.

But what I want to get down to is right through here.

Here's the numbers that we're going to look at.

The PCE, that's coming in next Thursday.

Why is that important?

Well, if you looked over here, it's the inflation number

that the Federal Reserve looks at.

They monitor the PCE and next week,

we're going to get the PCE.

Now, there's a couple of different numbers

when it comes to this, you have to understand.

There's numbers that says core,

and there's numbers that just say PCE.

Okay, the core means they stripped out food and energy.

And thank goodness for these that might help out a little bit.

But because these numbers are February,

and remember, February, we didn't have gas or oil

at $120 a barrel.

It was still 60-ish.

Okay, so they're saying the inflation numbers back then

or were supposed to be 0.4,

what they're going to come in at now, we don't know.

But here's what I'm going to tell you.

The inflation numbers are going to be higher.

And even if they come up with the expectations,

I think they're coming up, last reading was 2.8.

I mean, this is going to be over 3,

but again, the inflation numbers

are going to be predicated because of oil.

So the February indicators aren't going to be all that bad.

March, they're going to be bad.

So the inflation numbers on the PC,

the number that the Federal Reserve monitors,

it's going to go up.

What do you and I watch the CPI?

Well, we're going to get that next week as well.

This is consumer inflation.

This is probably the easiest way to understand this.

Consumer inflation.

It's how much you pay on your basket of goods.

And what the CPI report is, it's kind of food and energy

and gas and eating out and clothing.

It's all the stuff we really buy and live on on a daily basis.

Well, the core piece is, again, they stripped out food

and energy.

So if you're gas building, you know,

I fill up the gas tank and you know,

usually it's 40 bucks, now it's 60.

But you know, so that's not a part of this inflation number.

But this number is going to be March.

So the March CPI might be high or then expected

because all these other readings previous to this

are February.

So these are little things you really have to pay nuances to

because this has a huge role.

And well, usually what happens to these

and the wise behind it.

So that's what we have so far this week.

That's what the pendulum is looking like for next week.

But really, I can't say with confidence,

I know really what's where things are going to go

because a tweet, a drone,

and anything can change this market.

What I'm thinking is if there's an end to this pretty soon

that will help the oil distribution

because we don't need the oil companies to start shutting

down their plants because they just can't ship it.

So as long as they can continue to ship

and the war ends in the next week or two,

I think we're going to have everything will be okay.

We'll have initial spike on that inflationary front.

It'll last two, three months on the numbers.

And then you're going to see a lot of things coming down.

Now, if it doesn't end,

things can go really haywire from here.

So let's just hope that things happen

in the way we're predicting them.

Next week, I'll take a deeper dive into what would happen

if this just keeps going on for months and months

not what I predict, but with midterms,

I'm thinking it's going to be a shortcut war here as well

because that could help one side

than the other on the midterms.

I'm not even going to go there.

So folks, thank you for joining me today.

I can't thank you enough for you guys' support

when it comes to all this.

My name is Dan Frio.

If you need any help with the mortgage, I'd love to help you.

I can change my slogan a little bit now.

I can now say folks, my name is Dan Frio.

I've been doing this for over, I used to say 35,

I've been doing this now for over 36 years

and I'd love to help you out.

So I'm licensed in all 50 states as well as Puerto Rico.

So if you need a mortgage out there, I'd love to help you.

Here's the cool thing about all this.

If you're applying for mortgage, you're trying to track rates.

What do you do?

Are you trying to get pre-approved?

You're probably going to Google search

and say, okay, who's got the best rates?

You're going to go to all these websites.

So then what do you do?

You put your information into this place

and then they sell your data

and you're going to get calls from everybody.

You don't know who they are or what's going on.

Where you're going to put your application in that place

and that place and that place.

What if watching me, you can put in your application one time

and we pull your credit one time

and then we shop your loan with over almost 40 lenders

to make sure you're getting a really competitive rate

and the lowest fees in the market.

Well, that's what we do here.

So by putting your information right up through here,

we'd love to get you pre-approved.

Our website doesn't have a lot of information

to really guide you through.

So what do we like you to do if you're a home owner?

Right up through there.

I created rate watch 2.2.

Now, went from 2.0, which we just, you know,

we wanted you to put in your mortgage information

to say, okay, Dan, track this stuff for me

because I don't really know,

I don't know where rates are going on a day-to-day basis.

I don't even really know where I had for breakfast this morning.

So can you track it for me?

So we'd start tracking rates for people.

What happened is people would be at like seven and a half

and they're like, hey, reach out to me when it's five.

I'm like, that's never going to get to five.

So what I did is I created rate watch 2.1.

We're like, okay, why don't you put in,

you know, how much of a month you'd like to save?

Okay, so that was working out.

Then all of a sudden, we're like,

wonder if you could do all this and also actually get

your own personalized mortgage rate live on our website.

If you're a home owner, click right over there.

Right watch 2.2, put in your mortgage information.

Then it's going to tell you, based on today's rates,

here's how much of a savings you can get.

But you really want to find out, you would qualify for,

you're going to hit the button, put out in the parameters,

hit it, and there's our rates.

There's our live rates.

They should be darn near on the button.

You have to, you know, confirm it with us

by clicking in the next steps so we can confirm your data,

making sure the timestamps are there,

we can work on your way.

So we can actually, you can pick the mortgage rate you want.

But if you're a home buyer, what do you do?

I understand it's confusing.

Let us help you basically from application

to keys in your pocket.

What credit scores are used?

And why?

What's your income?

What income is used by the lenders?

We can help you with that.

What mortgage program is best for you and not your lender?

So that's what we can go through with you.

So every day, my goal is to come in and go over

all this information with you guys to show you,

okay, here's what's going on, stocks, bonds,

cryptocurrencies, and these things right through here.

So this is how we track mortgage rates.

Again, all you have to understand,

that number up through there, if it's green,

that is good news.

Today around, what was it about?

Hmm, what time is it?

Uh, about 10, 10, 30, the market moved in a good way.

Mortgage rates stabilized.

They went down a little bit.

So we got mortgage rates at 6.41.

My expectations for the next, probably the next 30, 45 days,

6.25 to 6.5.

If you get right in between there,

that's probably a good starting point for you to refinance

or you've been getting pre-approved

to buy that first house that you've been looking at.

So thanks for watching.

I will be back tomorrow with a video just to go over

or what the expectations are going on for tomorrow.

I don't know what news we're going to get over the weekend

or tomorrow evening, or I'm sorry, tonight.

And then I'll leave it at that.

But I'll have some videos posting over the weekend

to help you guys understand all this and more.

So thanks for watching guys.

Thanks for putting up with me today

and it's been a really rough week.

So thanks for supporting the channel

and making my dream kind of a reality.

So if we'd love to help you out,

if you're looking for a mortgage,

otherwise have a blessed day, give somebody a,

you haven't, if you haven't talked to mom or dad in a while.