S2025 Ep290: The Rate Update —Mortgage Rates Stuck? Here's What's REALLY Happening

Iran and the U.S. are trying a ceasefire could this work and if it does

What happened mortgage rates at that point would they go all the way back down to 599?

I don't think so, but let's get into today's news because I'm gonna explain to you guys

What the heck's gonna happen with these today?

Maybe even this week and the wise behind it and the reason why I do this folks my name is Dan Frio

I'm actually a licensed mortgage loan officer. I've been doing this now for 36 years. You believe that my

Slogans one application one credit book. I'm gonna compare your loan to over 30 different lenders

How why I give you all that at the end of this video. You're here for these

So let's get to it

So here's the culprit of why mortgage rates have spiked over the last month since the invasion of Iran

We had oil oil prices were down hovering in the $60 range

We haven't had those in a long long time and that was helping remember oil at the pump was like two dollars a bear

Our gallon now. It's back to four or five dollars a gallon

Well, here's why oil spiked and this is causing inflation fears

Okay, the biggest thing here is the federal reserve. Here's what they watch they watch

inflation with the PCE and they also watch the jobs report

They were created for two mandates one to keep jobs at full employment and keep keep prices in check a K inflation

We have these numbers coming in this week. So let's just do this

Let's assume the ceasefire it does take place and then we kind of get more normal see

We have oil prices come down a little bit. They're not going to be back down to $60 a barrel

But if inflation starts to come down the fears come out of the equation

It's going to go off mortgage rates. Well, let's look at some of the logical things that we want to look at

So again the federal reserve look to say the inflation and employment well this inflation number right through here

This is the number they want it 2% okay?

It's 2.8% in January when oil is at $60 a barrel now oil is at 111

This is going to be over to it's going to be over three

It's going to be three and a half or maybe even higher. So the fed's not going to do anything

And so the then the fear was okay, maybe the fed's going to increase rates

Well the fed took that off the table last Monday when the federal reserve chairman came out and said we're not going to increase rates

Of the oil okay, so let's look at the technicals that are coming out this week again

We're going to assume a ceasefire does take place and holds and the markets get a little bit back to normal

So let's take that approach so if you go to the economic calendar

Here's what we have coming in this week and it's a lot of data that the federal reserve looks at again

They look at inflation and jobs. Well, let's get over to what's coming out this week Monday

We have manufacturing and employment. Okay, that's going to give us a little bit of jobs numbers and then manufacturing PMI and prices

This is going to give us some inflationary numbers where price is going on the manufacturing level

Then you got on Tuesday ADP payroll numbers

Okay, I hate their numbers

But we want to focus in on as long as there's about 50,000 jobs a month being created

That's kind of a net neutral. This is a weekly adjustment. So we'll look at that a little bit

We're going to go down through here. There's some other things coming in like consumer inflation expectations

But let's get down through on Wednesday and Thursday of what the federal reserve really looks at

Okay, Thursday we get we get this reading every week

It's how many people got let go initial jobless claims and continued claims

Okay, how many people didn't get jobs back and got on continued claims that's going to give us a jobs report

Well, we actually had the unemployment rate coming in last week and actually dropped from four four to four three so the jobs numbers are good

So now let's look at inflation. Okay, ironically on Thursday we get that PCE number that inflation that the federal reserve looks at

Okay, they focus in on PCE again in January we're 2.8

Let's get over to what's expected this time

So if we go here February the core PCE what core means is they strip out food and energy this one's going to be a little bit steady

But it'll be higher than expected. That's my expectations. So they're saying it's it was 0.4 previously and it's going to come in at 0.4

I'm going to say it's going to come in a little bit higher than that and then the core that's what the core means

Then you're going to also get down through here the PCE now this thing can be hot hot as a firecracker

Because this is going to be the February number. Oh my bad. It's the February number

So this one's not going to be that hot yet

It will be a little elevated because of my January effect. So check out some previous videos on that

But that's going to give us the PCE again the number that the federal reserve focuses on

So we're going to get jobs report initial jobless claims the ADP reports

We're going to get all slew of data that's putting in all these pieces of the puzzle

But then on Friday here's the interesting thing. This is what I watch the CPI

Okay, get all confused with this here. Let me look at this CPI means consumer price index

Just think of consumer prices. Okay, this is what you and I pay all right

This is a March number now. This is where it can start to get a little bit scary because March is when we had the oil prices start to increase

Okay, so if you have that the price of oil increasing as well as other producer costs

You might see this number really inflated the April number might be scary

But on the core number because it strips out food and energy this number might be a little step

It will be high but then the CPI they're saying it's going to go from point three to one

I'm going to give that a thumbs up finally. They're taking a little bit of a that oil adjustment in there

So you're going to see that or the CPI consumer inflation month over month

They're saying it's was point three. Can you guys see that right behind my head point three?

It's going to go to one so don't be surprised if the markets come out and say whoa this number's way in elevated

You're expecting it. Okay, oils way high and so is the consumer prices because of the January effect that we've talked to about in the past

That's we got got coming in this week. So basically everything that the federal reserve watches

Okay, so what my expectations are is the inflation numbers are going to be high

Especially the March and as we get April numbers

It's going to freak out the markets the Fed's going to do nothing

But let's get over and really see how the markets are fairing to this

So what I focus in on is right through here. Let's get back to the bond market

If you're really focusing on interest rates mortgage rates, I follow this okay

All you have to understand that number up through there if it's green that's good

That means mortgage rates are coming down the bigger the number the bigger the adjustment it was 19 earlier

It's coming down a little bit

But I like that because it's it's a green number means mortgage rates are coming down just a little bit

Let's get over the stocks. Yeah, the the equities are fairing for today. I'll take a Dow Jones down of 46

S&P up five the Nasdaq that was down what two 300 on Friday. That's up almost 100 points the big thing news right now oil

Oil's coming down. It's down. Well, not really anything

But it's in the red at least if we have oil in the red we're most likely going to have better mortgage rates

Okay, so interest rates are going to get a little bit better. Let's get over to crypto

I follow crypto just as a risk kind of trade if people are dumping money into crypto

There must be some a little bit less anxiety in the markets. So we go to crypto. It's up two thousand dollars

Okay, so that means to me the markets are liking the data that it has so far today you get back over to the bond market

We got the bonds up 12 for 12 ticks. So if you're out there right now in your home owner home buyer

What do you do or you might be a realtor saying okay? I'm trying to advise my clients on you know

Here's where rates are going to go because when they got pre-qualified they were at 599 now it's 6667 the payment went up quite a bit

You might be a home owner thinking okay, I should have refinanced it 599

It would have saved me three four hundred bucks. That little greedy. So what should you do now?

Okay, unless you have a house under contract that you need to close in 30 days

Don't lock. Okay, don't lock. Here's what I want to give you guys if you're a home buyer make sure you get pre-approved

Well, that's what I can do for you. I'm licensed in all 50 states as well as Puerto Rico go to my website

It's right there here and you can get

Request an appointment

Put in your application. We can help you basically from applications to case in your hand

You realize you understand what what credit report people use what your real income is

What is your real mortgage rate instead of going down this this funnel?

We can actually track rates from 30 different lenders for you

But if you're a realtor out there or a mortgage person

Hopefully you stayed to me all the way to the end

I've been working on this for about a year and we're gonna have a live ticker for you guys out there

And it's gonna be free. It's gonna give you where mortgage rates are all across the board

It's gonna give you the direction of where things are going right now

It's gonna go down through here and give you the treasury markets in the MBS markets

It's gonna go down through here and give you also the S&P 500 and the major indices

The Federal Reserve's information highlights of the day and also what the Fed is expected to do at the next meeting

So this will be live for you guys. I'm tweaking it right now. It is live

Trying to make sure it's updated daily. So please pay attention that if you're a home owner right now

What do you do to track these rates? You're like okay? I miss those rates again

Well, put your mortgage information right in up through there. It's called ratewatch 2.2

When it tracks is your rate so if you're like okay, Dan when rates hit five call me text me email me

And also tracks how much of a month you want to save?

So you're like okay, Dan if I can save 300 bucks a month call me. Well, that's what it does

We don't sell the day. It'll be me calling you

So if you're out there right now if you're a home owner, I put my information in there

Put your application in make sure you get ready if you're a home buyer

I'm suggesting the same thing

But don't lock right now get yourself prepared

I think mortgage rates are gonna come down a little bit

If you're closing within 30 days lock them in don't don't use any of this volatility to make you even more anxious

But let's go back to see where we are on the bond market

We're gonna do this every day when we come in

We're gonna start and show you the bond market where it is and at the end of this video show you where it is and what the directions that taken

So it is up it was up about 19. It is down up 12

So it's still a good direction means mortgage rates will come down a little bit today

But pay attention to continue to pay attention to Iran

The straight of her moves and the oil prices that's gonna tell you the direction of mortgage rates the equity markets and

More one last note folks my mom did past last night. She is with the Lord now and the whole situation was really cool

I'll tell you about it sometime and to pass on Easter and the how she signaled me to let me know she passed

It was a blessing and I'll give I'll share that with you at some other time

So thank you for your wishes out there and mom love you to death and love you to pieces and see you soon

Take care folks. Thanks for watching if you haven't subscribed yet

Please do so over there if you need some help with the mortgage

I'd love to help you out I'm in all week and thank you for subscribing and supporting my channel

Have a great one and I'll talk to you next time. Bye bye