S8 Ep549: 2. The Failure of Precision BombingPrecision bombing fails due to Japan’s notorious weather, violent jet streams, and B-29 mechanical issues. Scott details the challenges of 3,000-mile roundtrip missions and the growing debate over shifting from pinpoint

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Or the early launching of the B29 strategic bombing 25,000 feet pressurized cabin.

James the puzzle here is that you introduce that it doesn't work for a very simple thing.

Weather. How so James?

Which Japan is an island nation out of the Pacific.

It has notoriously cloudy rainy weather.

And so some months, and of course if you're doing daylight precision bombing,

you need to see in order to be able to put your bombs on target.

And then Japan and some months has as little as three days of clear weather.

And the ability to predict those days is a near impossibility.

And so you've got this terrible weather for bombing.

And then on top of that, they discover that high up in the heavens ever Japan

are these crazy violent jet streams.

For winds blow as much as 230 miles per hour.

And those are like the winds that batter Mount Everest.

And of course that the bad weather in the jet stream is just combined to completely wreck

bomber accuracy. And so those are two of the problems that Hansel faces.

Another one that he has is the B29 is a brand new plane.

And as you noted earlier, it's an incredibly expensive gamble that Arnold has taken.

It costs $3.7 billion to develop this plane.

That's actually more than the atomic bomb.

And unlike the B17, which is sort of the dominant workhorse in the European theater,

where America actually had benefited from fact that the B17 had been around for several years

before the war began. So we had time to work out all the kinks of the B17s that by the time

the war began, we've got a reliable platform. The B29 rolls out of the first factories in 1944

and goes straight into combat. And so of course with any new technology,

particularly something as sophisticated as the B29, it's got lots of glitches.

And one of the big problems are engine fires. And so in these are tremendously long missions.

So I'm in a round trip flight from the Mariana Islands to Tokyo. It was over 3,000 miles.

To put that in perspective, a bomber crew in Europe could take off from England,

bomber land, and come back. And it's only 1,500 miles. So it's literally,

that's just one way to Tokyo. So you've got bad weather, you've got jet streams,

you've got a sophisticated new plane that has engine fires, and you've got tremendous vast

distances all over water. Okay, so if you get engine problems or if you take

flack or fighter damage, there's no way for you to put down. You've got this, you've got this

dart forbidding ocean there. And so these are just some of the many pressures that are building

up on Haywood-Hansfield's point. The strategic bombing aiming at the war industry,

the first missions they're called San Antonio 2 and 3, 1, 2 and 3, these are the operation names

are against the manufacturing outside of Tokyo. And the disappointment is,

though they have radar, though they know where the plants are, they miss them. I think that first

raid only destroyed 1% of the Nakajima aircraft factory, which is turning out in an enormous

amount of aircraft engines every day. And they're also fighting the fighters that are still

available to come up after them. My notes says they add 150 air and the aircraft guns available

and search lights. So the B-29s take a pounding right away, especially from the Japanese air

defense. At this point, daylight precision bombing, is it a debate here in late 44? Does that emerge

after the frustration? Yeah, the daylight precision bombing had been actually, it was the strategy

we'd use all through Europe. And of course, the English, the British have been pressuring us

to abandon that and come over in Fireball cities. And we, our American commanders in Europe had

really resisted that. And so those pressures were on Hansel, early on as well, that, you know,

Japan, I mean, look, it's hard not to watch German cities burn and think, huh, would this work

against Japanese cities like Tokyo and Nagoya, but Hansel was a true believer in the high

altitude daylight precision bombing. And these early raids, as you know, were against the aircraft

manufacturing companies around Tokyo and Nagoya, because America was trying to wipe out

Japan's ability to replenish its air forces. And that way, we would own the skies because these,

on these long bombing missions, they can't take fighter escorts with them. So the bombers,

the only defense these bombers have is their formation and their guns. And so the early missions

are all designed to knock out Japan's aircraft industry to give America control of the skies.

And of course, they simply don't work. And the Japanese realized very quickly what the targets

are were after they start moving their fighters into that area, they move their entire aircraft

guns. And it makes us that these between nine's coming in over and over and over again,

against Tokyo and Nagoya, just start taking it pounding. I mean, so much so that the Airmen call

that strip of that between Tokyo and Nagoya, they call it flak alley because all the guns are now

centralized in that area to target them. My memories that are one point half on last

hand. So how long will it take you to wreck them? And he says, give me six weeks. And that's a

ridiculous amount of time to Arnold. He doesn't have the time, pressuring him right now. The Navy

has been bogged down in the Philippines. And the Battle of Lady Golf is a qualified failure.

The two typhoons that hit the Navy, the test force 58, hold, stay its hand for the ability to

project power into Japan. That will come. But ahead of everyone is Iwo Jima and Okinawa. And the

understanding that the Japanese are ready to die in place. So the pressure is you've got you've

got to produce results now because the otherwise the Army is going to take over the Army Air Force

and they're going to turn you into their target. So the Navy is going to take you over and turn

you into their targets, which means the airfields or the the fleet. So all of this is weighing on

Hansel and and a half Arnold at this point. So final minute of this segment, James, I want to

establish this debate about strategic bombing from altitude and fire bombing that the British

conduct against Germany. It goes to the highest level of leadership, right? Marshall and FDR

himself and Leahy, his chief of staff, they believe in strategic bombing at this point. Is that

correct, James? Yeah, they're pretty hands off for the most part. They really kind of leave that

too Arnold into the air service on how best to execute the war. But that has been the strategy

all along. But you do begin to see a shift. I mean, you do look, FDR approves the atomic bomb,

you know, the development of the bomb, which is a $2 billion bomb. There's no way that's a

strategic pinpoint type weapon. I mean, that is a city wrecking weapon. So they're they're open

to these changes. All right, let's go to Curtis Lemay, then, James. Here comes the change.

The book is Black Snow, Curtis Lemay, the fire bombing of Tokyo and the road to the atomic bomb.

When we come back, meet Curtis Lemay. I'm John Batch.

You're listening to CBS Eye on the World with John Batchler.

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