Schrödinger's War w/ Hunger the Dye Merchant: Ep. 464

And Doug, there's nowhere I wouldn't go to help someone customize and save on car insurance with Liberty Mutual, even if it means sitting front row at a comedy show.

Hey everyone, check out this guy and his bird. What is this, your first date?

Oh, no, we help people customize and save on car insurance with Liberty Mutual together. We're married.

Ah!

Meet a human, him to a bird.

Yeah, the bird looks out of your league anyways.

Only pay for what you need at Liberty Mutual.com.

Liberty, Liberty, Liberty, Liberty, Liberty.

For those with type 2 diabetes or high blood pressure, you may be missing a hidden signal from your kidneys.

An SOS for an increased risk of cardiovascular events like heart attack or stroke.

The mission? Detect the SOS.

Start at detecttheSOS.com.

Learn how a simple UACR urine test can help identify kidney damage early.

Talk to your doctor about getting screened.

Go to detecttheSOS.com to learn more about UACR urine testing today.

Brought to you by Beringer, Engelheim, Pharmaceuticals Inc.

All right, hunger the dye merchant. Look back to the jayburn show. How you doing, man?

I'm doing good, man. It's been a while since we've talked online or even in person. It's been a while.

I know. I know. An unfortunately long amount of time.

You are one of my boys. Anytime we're at a party together, we're always having a grand old time.

Maybe it's just like the xenophilic angle, but I've been unreasonably proud that you handed me my

med card. But in all seriousness, right? You have, shall we say some experience with Lebanon and

Lebanese culture. And obviously that has become much more relevant due to the ongoing war in Iran.

So we're with Iran, I guess. So before we get into the kind of history of this,

if you could, could you just explain what is going on in Lebanon right now? Why has this become

a front of a war ostensibly with Iran, which, you know, look, I'm an American, I'm not great at geography,

but Iran and Lebanon are, you know, they're different countries, right?

No, absolutely. And just just for the sake of the audience, you know, my name's hunger. I am a member

of the old glory club. I am the unofficial hummus correspondent. So I get brought on whenever

of Middle East and shenanigans start happening. I am also now the discount for your Osmo doubt,

because I love that guy. We're mutuals on Twitter, but he is, he is just like wicked smart. And I'm

the son of Lebanese immigrants. I am American citizen, but I have a lot of experience in the Middle East.

I've lived in the Middle East for quite a number of years. So I'm coming to this from that kind of

background of I am ethnically Lebanese. I have been in America for a very, very long time. I am American

citizen. And I still go back. I still visit and I've been there many many times. I used to live there

for quite some time, but the situation that's going on right now is seriously not good, not good in

any way shape or form. Like Lebanon has been in a downward spiral pretty much since COVID and

probably a little bit before COVID, pretty much since 2019. Lebanon has been in like a real

downward spiral. And like nothing it hasn't gotten better. The rate of inflation is absolutely

insane. The currency hyperinflated. This is this is what's funny. The currency hyperinflated

like in 2020, 2021 to the point where like it wasn't Germany, you know, barrels, I mean like

wheel barrels of dollars, but it might as well have happened that way.

90% of the population lost almost all their savings. Almost literally almost all their savings.

The banks that was around on the banks, no one could get their money out. There were capital controls.

It was just really fucked up the way the economics have played out and how the banking system collapsed

after COVID, I mean before COVID and continuing through COVID. So it was, Lebanon was already not

in a good place. Lebanon is a very diverse country, not ethnically, but diverse religiously.

It's a third Christian. Well, actually probably at this point, it's like

25, 30% Christian. It used to be a third. It's probably less than that. It's probably 25% right now.

It is a third Shia Muslim, which is the same religion as Iran. It's also a third Sydney Muslim,

which is the same as, you know, the rest of the Arab world, like Saudi Arabia. And it's like 10%

Jews and nobody knows what the Jews are. I mean, they're they're important, but like they're

for the sake of this conversation, they're not irrelevant esoteric,

ethno sectarian religious sect. The Jews are to religion.

What like the Finns are to Europe, I will not explain on that. Yes, you probably know more than

most on that. It's it's a weird, I don't know. Yeah, it's like no one really knows what they are.

No one really knows what they believe. I mean, they if you ask a Jewish person,

like what is Jerusalem? They don't even know themselves. Like the religion is like very

very very well kept secret of like what they actually believe in. I don't know if like anyone has

ever actually deep dived into it. But that's just some like esoteric lore. It's not it's not relevant

to the purpose of this conversation. So yeah, Lebanon has not been in a good place.

It's a very divided country religiously. And this has caused a lot of problems. There is basically

an enormous sectarian oligarchy. Every religion in the country, Christian, Sunni, Shia, Jews

has their own faction. And everything in that this how do I say this results in the government

basically being non-functional. It's basically a failed state and all but name.

Like nothing works. The country doesn't have 24 hour electricity. Like people have own private

generators to meet like a half of their electricity demands. They don't have 24 hour running water.

They have private water companies that supply half of the water in the entire country because

the state might as well not exist. It's literally a failed state and all but name. Beautiful country.

An incredible society. Like this is like I say all this. But like it's not Somalia. Like it's

people do have capital. People do have wealth. It's more like Brazil in that sense.

So what is currently happening as far as this war in Lebanon? Right? Who is fighting there?

You know what are the teams so to speak? And what is that like for I'm not sure if that's a vague

question but like what are the conditions like on the ground? No for short. So why Lebanon is

important and why Lebanon keeps coming up and all of these discussions about the Middle East

and Iran is for two reasons that one it has a border with Israel. It is on the northern border of

Israel. It's next to Syria as well. Syria and Lebanon share the northern border with our favorite

democracy. This is one of the seven fronts that the Iranians have been activating. You know

ever since this showdown has happened like ever since the showdown happened over the past many

years. You know Lebanon was being bombed by Israel in 2024. Lebanon was being bombed by Israel during

the 12-day war. So that's a very big reason. The other big reason is because a third of the Lebanese

population is Shia Muslim which is the same religion as Iran. I should probably explain why that's

the case. Like the Iranians view the Shia Lebanese the same way as the Americans view the Israelis

in some sense. There is actually a conspiracy theory among the secular liberal Iranians that like

the Iranian government is controlled by the Lebanese mafia or the Lebanese lobby. You know

in all but name this is a similar relationship that America has to Israel that Iran has to

Lebanon and particularly the Shia. I mean the Iranians don't care about the Sunnis. The Iranians don't

care about the Christians for better or worse but they absolutely care about the Lebanese Shia.

The same way that Americans care about the Israelis. And the reason for that is actually it's actually

goes much deeper into the history than you probably think that's in the 16th century you know all

the way back then Shia Muslims in Lebanon and Iraq were imported to Iran. I mean Iran was already

Shia but the ideology of these Lebanese and Iraqi clerics was used by the Safavid Empire. The

Safavid Empire was like one of the great Persian empires like we remember ancient Persia the

Ikeminids, the Sassanians. We remember those but after the Muslim conquests

like Iran was occupied. Iran was occupied in conquered for centuries and the nation that the

great Persian empire that sprung out and like reconquered all that land and like liberated the

Persians more or less was a Shiite Islamic empire known as the Safavids. And the Safavid

government and the emperor is Ma'il. Yeah I believe I believe it's emperor is Ma'il. He imported

these Lebanese and Iraqi clerics and they taught the state ideology of Islam. And the two pillars

of you know the Safavid Empire were the emperor the Shah as we know it today the Shah is the emperor.

The two pillars of the state were the Shah and the clerics the Mullahs. So this relationship

between the Lebanese and the Iraqis and the Persians even though they're different they're

ethnically different like Persians are not Arabs any Persian will tell you that if you just ask

the Persians are not Arabs but the Lebanese and the Iraqi Shia literally intermarried so thoroughly

into the the clerical class the Mullah class that they're basically indistinguishable at this point

and that class of Mullahs is what's running Iran today and this is why it's important to Iran this

is a like this is the special relationship that the Lebanese and the Iranians have the Shia Lebanese

and the Iranians have. So obviously that explains the kind of cultural ties

but as regards this kind of current war I guess just because I haven't been following this

you know day to day at what point did Lebanon become the leader in this war was it immediately was

it something that was slowly walked into because I think like a lot of people I primarily became

aware of it once it became a sort of contentious part of the negotiations for this sort of like

aborted 48 hour ceasefire whatever were technically in it's it's a very bizarre situation on that

front but when did violence pick back up in Lebanon and Doug there's nowhere I wouldn't go to

help someone customize and save on car insurance with Liberty Mutual even if it means sitting front

row at a comedy show hey everyone check out this guy in his bird what is this your first day oh

no we help people customize and save on car insurance with Liberty Mutual together we're married

need a human him to a bird yeah the bird looks out of your league anyways only pay for what you need

at Liberty Mutual dot com Liberty Liberty Liberty Liberty Liberty Liberty let's be honest buying cannabis

shouldn't be complicated sketchy or low quality that's why I want to tell you about mood dot com

that's m-o-o-d dot com mood ships federally legal cannabis straight to your door no medical car

no hassle and here's the kicker the quality is better than anything you'll find at your local

dispensary yeah I said it whether you're into edibles concentrates flower or just looking to

explore you'll find it all at mood and it's not just the variety that makes them stand out every

product is sourced from small American owned family farms that care deeply about what they grow

it's cannabis you can trust delivered discreetly and ready to elevate your mood and because

you're a listener you get 20% off your first order just head to mood dot com that's m-o-o-d dot com

to get started so for I guess the best way to address that is over the past 50 years pretty much

since yeah I would say pretty much since 1970 1975 Lebanon has been a front

against Israel for many people before I ran it was a front for the Syrians before the Syrians

it was a front for the Palestinians because many Palestinians escaped Palestine into Lebanon

they crossed the northern border and they set up Melissa groups to fight the Israelis

you know in southern Lebanon so Lebanon has always been a front against Israel willingly or

unwillingly at many times many many times but the particular Iranian element came into existence

after after the Islamic revolution in 1979 when the Iranians you know overthrew the shawl

the pro-western shawl the mola class was you know elevated the mola class was running the entire

the entire show and Ayatollah Khomeini and all of these other clerics that had intermarried

with the Shia Lebanese started sending money and weapons to local Shiites in the region

and in particularly Lebanon this led in the early 80s to the creation of the group we know today as

Hezbollah Hezbollah was born basically born in 1982 as a reaction to the 1982 Israeli invasion

of Lebanon Israel invades Lebanon in 1982 there are many reasons why they invaded it's it's a very

very long story I'm not going to go into the huge topic of the Lebanese Civil War that's just

a huge topic in and of itself but Israel invades Lebanon in 1982 and occupies half the country

half of that country is where all the Shiites of Lebanon lived so the Lebanese Shiites were

living under the oppression of the Israelis and the Iranians who had intermarried with them and I

mean like Hassan Nasrallah who was the the most recent leader of Hezbollah before he was assassinated

two years ago I believe a son is married to the daughter of Ayatollah Khomeini so like this

intermarriage has existed for a very very long time like these people intermarried each other

all the time because this is the clerical class and the clerics in Iran you know are very

religious extremists and so are the Shiites so Israel invades Lebanon in 1982 it is a very brutal

and bloody invasion it is a very brutal and bloody occupation Israel occupies southern Lebanon

for 20 years from 1978 there was an early invasion in 1978 again many many such reasons I'm not

going to get into the whole Lebanese Civil War Israel invades southern Lebanon in 1978 they occupy

half the country in 1982 and they occupy southern Lebanon for 22 years under that time a large

percentage of the Lebanese Shiites were living under Israeli occupation and this was the well

that Hezbollah drew upon with Iranian funding Iranian you know secret services Iranian

special forces Iranian training Iranian technology all of these things were transferred to their

cousins in Lebanon to fight this war and to resist the occupation Israel withdrew from Lebanon

in the year 2000 you know was that a good decision on their part I don't know but Israel withdrew

from Lebanon in the year 2000 but the struggle of the resistance was kept alive because

Lebanon is a failed state the army is not big the national army I should say the then national

army of Lebanon we do have a national army that is separate from Hezbollah these are not the same

these are not the same thing at all is incredibly weak incredibly outdated we do have some really

cool some really really good special forces that have trained with like US Marines and Green

Burais but this is not a real national army it is a militarized police force this is not a real

conventional army there's nothing the Lebanese army could do to stop the Israelis or fight the

Israelis it's just like this is just the reality so Hezbollah not being a national army not being

bound by the laws of states being a militia group could use a symmetric war to defend Lebanon but

also more importantly to advance the interests of Iran these are the Israel there was another war

between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006 there have been clashes I mean Israel again again invaded Lebanon

in 2024 it's bombed Lebanon in 2025 during the 12th they were it is currently invading and

bombing Lebanon now in the middle of this war and it is Hezbollah versus Israel this militant

Shia group that was founded by extremist Shia Muslims to drive the Israelis out of occupied Lebanon

and gets all of its funding and weapons and and tech and you know intel from mother Iran I guess

you could say this is still going on to this day and Israel is still invading Lebanon it's like the

ceasefire after you know after Israel broke the ceasefire it literally bombed the entire country

especially baby was particularly hard you know hundreds of people died I mean like over like

a couple thousand people were injured and needed like blood donations it was it was just terrible

but after that you know after that bombing run um Israel kind of Israel basically promised the Americans

like okay we're gonna stop bombing Beirut you know the capital city but we're not gonna stop

our invasion the invasion is still happening right now and the only people resisting the

invasion right now are Hezbollah so one of the the claims you see made by uh shall we say

motivated partisans in this sort of discourse is you will hear people say things like oh well

you know the the Israeli actions in Lebanon are working they're making Hezbollah less and less

popular right people on the ground are blaming Hezbollah for these Israeli strikes and soon they will

basically have had enough and say you know what Hezbollah you have to leave we have nothing else

in common with Iran now we like Israel now of course you know I'm saying that in sort of a

deliberately absurd way but it's not far off from in the analysis you'll read so do you think

there's anything to that right do yes is there a building anger towards Hezbollah 100% yes um it

depends who you talk to but that is a hundred percent the case with many people not all again not

all Lebanon is in such a really shitty situation that the economy is so bad the government is so

dysfunctional that adding war on top of that is it just it just wrecks people it just black

bills people like I talk I talk to family members I talk to friends who still live there and it's

just like it's incredibly depressing it is so incredibly depressing that it drives people to

emigrate it really really drives people to leave and give up because the situation is so homeless

and there is no solution even before the war like even before this war started the situation was

hopeless and there was no solution no one believed Lebanon was going to like turn around and fix

itself like in many ways it's much off it's much worse off than Brazil in many many ways the

political problems are so intractable that like it literally just causes you know people to

black pill get into gambling um do reckless things and just I don't know like deaths of despair and

just just emigrate just emigrate there's a reason my clients immigrated there's a reason millions

of Lebanese have immigrated because the situation there is absolute it's just an absolute chick show

that there is I really I know that's I know you're trying to um how do I say I'm going to give them

the benefit of the doubt but those detractors are not wrong the Sunni Muslims of Lebanon despise

Hezbollah and despise the Shiites for many legitimate and also some illegitimate reasons this is

totally justified in their mind they would rather side with Israel temporarily temporarily

to defeat Hezbollah then fight alongside Shia heretics they are heretics in their opinion against Israel

this is like there are groups in Lebanon trying to use this war with Israel to weaken Hezbollah

because Hezbollah is the top dog in the Lebanese political system it is the only group in Lebanon

allowed to basically maintain its own militia it is basically the only only group in Lebanon that is

like has access to I don't know like continental ballistic missiles I mean not not not continental

ballistic missiles but I mean high high tech high tech weaponry like high tech anti-ship missiles

they do have anti-ship missiles high tech drones high tech any kind of missile you want under the

Sun like Hezbollah has access to this but no other faction of you know the very religiously

diverse Lebanon does they are the only they're the only one that has the real monopoly on force

and no one else does and this causes huge disincentives because the country is such a shit show

and Doug there's nowhere I wouldn't go to help someone customize and save

on car insurance with Liberty Mutual even if it means sitting front row at a comedy show hey

everyone check out this guy and his bird what is this your first date oh no we help people

customize and save on car insurance with Liberty Mutual together we're married uh need a human

him to a bird yeah the bird looks out of your leg anyways only pay for what you need at Liberty

Mutual dot com Liberty Liberty Liberty Liberty Liberty Liberty Liberty let's be honest buying cannabis

shouldn't be complicated sketchy or low quality that's why I want to tell you about mood dot com

that's mood.com mood ships federally legal cannabis straight to your door no medical card no hassle

and here's the kicker the quality is better than anything you'll find at your local dispensary

yeah I said it whether you're into edibles concentrates flower or just looking to explore

you'll find it all at mood and it's not just the variety that makes them stand out every product

is sourced from small American owned family farms that care deeply about what they grow

it's cannabis you can trust delivered discreetly and ready to elevate your mood and because you're

a listener you get 20% off your first order just head to mood dot com that's mood dot com to get

started I really hate talking about this but there are groups in Lebanon the Christians are splits

there are some Christians that support Hasbola there are many Christians that don't support Hasbola

I don't go I don't choose a side one way of another I am not I am not a big fan of Hasbola

but if you had to if you put a gun to my head and ask me like would you rather be occupied by

Israel or occupied by the Shiites like I choose the Shiites okay and it can't stand that's just

that is just my personal opinion many people on Lebanon have a different opinion

they want to use these rallies as a battering ramp against their domestic political opponents

which are Hasbola so that that is completely true in the on that front

no hunger when you and I were speaking earlier are you mentioned that you've been following

this conflict closely or obvious reasons perhaps so what do you make of this sort of bizarre situation

where we have the Pakistanis ostensibly acting as some sort of negotiators for the ceasefire

that simultaneously is and isn't happening I would admit I sort of lost the plot on this point

I don't really know what is happening because very very early of course you have this bizarre

situation where it seems as if there was either a miscommunication or just simple incompetence

on behalf of the Pakistanis that led to a significant misunderstanding in what the

terms of this ceasefire will really were and weren't and while we're talking about things that are

both true and not true obviously secondarily there is the idea of well is the street of

Hormuz open or not right it seems as if currently it's very unclear what is actually happening

no that's a that's 100% true the the media environment is so polluted that no one nobody knows

what the fuck is going on which is which is so hard to discuss this which is why and which is

why there's so many competing narratives and that that's a deliberate choice there's obviously

tons of misinformation out there and you have to take every you know official I guess government

statement with a enormous grain of salt but you know I'm not I'm I'm less interested in what's

happening now like is like is like this is Schrodinger's straight this is Schrodinger's ceasefire

like nobody fucking knows what the hell is going on I'm much more interested in how this happened

because from all the indications I can tell was that Jared Kushner and Steve Whitkopf

completely torpedoed the potential for a deal I ran I think there has I think there's plenty of

evidence plenty of evidence I've seen to suggest this the Omanis who were who were mediating

who were mediating the talks before the Pakistanis the British who were also there at the

negotiations with the Omanis between the Americans and the Iranians just they all confirm that

there was a deal on the table we had a very workable framework it needed a little bit more time

but both sides basically agreed to like 80 to 90 percent on all the issues and then Trump launched

the war about you know a week later have you have you heard some other things because that's what

I've heard and I think that's totally accurate with the facts but that is accurate to what I have

heard now I believe that there is it is indisputed even among the anti Iran war faction right as to

why right affect what why we went to war with Iran you know what was the internal narrative you

have some people as you know diverse as random internet anti semites all the way up to I don't

know Marco Rubio and at least Trump sort of intimating this that effectively the Israelis strong

armed us into it you have others more cynically basically saying like no this all goes back to

you know effectively just Trump's slavish devotion to Israel he wasn't forced at all this is what

he wanted to do and again speaking about the incredibly polluted media landscape on this

there's so much narrative lying around even compared to the Ukraine war which was another situation

where it felt as if there was absolutely no ability to to tell what was going on it's it's

it's very very difficult to tell but I mean that doesn't surprise me I didn't know that right but I

mean just based off of what we have seen and our you know relative relationship to the state of

Israel I mean I'm not shocked by that no absolutely and how do I how do I say this I'm happy

I'm happy you mentioned Russia and Ukraine because this was that was another war I followed very

very closely for a very long time I mean until like Middle Eastern shenanigans got on the way

and I gave up I gave up following that conflict but that was the big thing that happened you know

before October 7th and like I think the world has changed so much before October 7th and like

the way I see the way the things I see happening now in the Persian Gulf in the military situation on

the ground is that no one has learned anything from Russia Ukraine nobody has learned anything except

the Iranians the Iranians have learned a lot from Russia and Ukraine but no one else has the

Americans especially have not the Gulf states have not Israel definitely has not and that is shown by

their lack of success in dealing with Hezbollah and Lebanon like Hezbollah is not

so this this goes into something I really really really want to talk about and it's the concept of

like what is a win and Doug there's nowhere I wouldn't go to help someone customize and save

on car insurance with Liberty Mutual even if it means sitting front row at a comedy show hey

everyone check out this guy in his bird what is this your first date oh no we help people

customize and save on car insurance with Liberty Mutual together we're married

meet a human him to a bird yeah the bird looks out of your league anyways only pay for what you

need at Liberty Mutual dot com Liberty Liberty Liberty Liberty Liberty Liberty let's be honest

buying cannabis shouldn't be complicated sketchy or low quality that's why I want to tell you

about mood dot com that's M O O D dot com mood ships federally legal cannabis straight to your

door no medical card no hassle and here's the kicker the quality is better than anything you'll

find at your local dispensary yeah I said it whether you're into edibles concentrates flower

or just looking to explore you'll find it all at mood and it's not just the variety that makes

them stand out every product is sourced from small American owned family farms that care deeply

about what they grow it's cannabis you can trust delivered discreetly and ready to elevate your

and because you're a listener you get 20% off your first order just head to mood dot com that's

M O O D dot com to get started like what is a win what is the per like what does a win look like

and people get really I see a lot of cope from people on the pro iran side and like I have many

friends who are who don't oppose the war I'll say I'll say that diplomatically I know many people

in in personal life that don't oppose the war and that support the president and support

our military I absolutely support our military that's fine but the argument of like

what is like oh we're winning the argument is we're winning because we're bombing this we're

bombing that this thing blew up oh you know the like just et cetera et cetera et cetera name

fill in the blank with whatever you want it's like blowing things up

is not victory like what is the per like what is the purpose of war the purpose of war is to achieve

victory what is victory victory in a war is when you compel the enemy to do your will it's when

you get the enemy to do things you want this is why we have treaties this is why we have

unconditional surrender this is why we have negotiations we want you to do X and we will do Y

if you if you do not do what we want we will want you to we want you to open the straight if you

don't open the street we will bomb your power plants so if you cannot achieve getting the enemy

to do what you want you are not winning the war this is extremely simple and I just I do I some

people have a problem with this and have the simplified thinking of like we just blew up a lot

of stuff therefore we're winning well and on that point right if you're going into negotiations asking

for the status quo ante right just how things were generically before but again I'm not a military

strategist but that doesn't indicate that you were in a position of strength because if you

started an aggressive war and now you're negotiating and your position is all right finally let's

just go back to how it was to me that doesn't indicate that we're winning right it seems that if we

were winning we would be the ones arguing for more that we want right instead of the situation

before we started bombing you know children's schools yeah the status quo is you achieve nothing

the status quo is that you you have literally achieved nothing it is the status quo like maybe

you cut your losses maybe you could have started losing but you you know salvaged it into a status quo

which is basically a stalemate but whatever like you know you can spin that like that's not a victory

okay like you didn't you didn't wars have objectives I can't believe I have to say this sometimes

but like wars have objectives there are reasons we go to war like when the enemy stops

fighting you that is victory when you cannot get the enemy to do something you want that is a loss

like this is very like this is very simple stuff like I like there's there's tons of books on military

theory I have only read some but this is basic things like blowing things up in the Middle East

and crashing the world economy needs to have a purpose it needs to achieve something and this is

just what this is just what really upsets me I'm sorry I'm getting I'm starting to rant but please

please hop in oh no not at all and that's why I think it's interesting to cast our minds back

to the earlier stages of this war because well what were the stated goals well I mean kind of

nothing right we got some some waffling about a nuclear program you know Ron Dodson and I spoke

about that at length a few weeks back if you're interested in that more specifically then of course

now it seems as if focus has largely shifted towards the straight-up hormones for fairly obvious reasons

now we're in this sort of bizarre situation where the US is blockading straight-up hormones

uh which is I'll be honest uh it's not a good thing to happen but it is kind of funny

like how dare you blockade the street I'll blockade it back uh it's incredibly bizarre

and I think that that is what personally has really uh made me emotional right why I talk about

this less than perhaps I could if I were looking to you know optimize for the algorithm

because at the point at which our own leaders seem to not be entirely sure why we are doing this

it becomes harder and harder to claim that we are the ones in charge right that we are the ones

calling the shot because you know if this is something that we wanted to do and we did it even

for an evil bad reason well we certainly could have come up with at least some fig leaf right at

least some you know reason why and the fact that the the reason why has come out you know several

weeks into this uh it makes it very clear really why we are doing this and you know I don't want to

be characterized as a conspiracy theorist but at the point where I don't know the secretary of state

is implying that we did this on behalf of a foreign power I think that that is a reasonable

conclusion to come to no that's 100% and I'm gonna jump off on that it's that you know no one nobody in

America knows what the strategy is nobody in America knows what the objectives are the objectives

change every week the first I remember this the first week of the war the president Trump put on

true social Iranians this is your chance rise up overthrow your government like go free yourself

we are bombing the capital we have killed the Ayatollah now is your chance this is what he said in

week one and week two there there was talk about army the Kurds and starting a civil war in Iran

and week three after the missile strikes then you know the shenanigans on the straight week three and

week four we get into the talk of the blockade and we get into the talk of the street after week one

and two had failed you know the Iranians didn't rise up the Kurds were in no position to start a

civil war or march on the government or do anything that they were just no position to do that

so ever since then we've been on the focus on the street because none of our our real objectives

in this war are not American objectives they are Israeli objectives and everyone knows this

the strategy America is following is not an American strategy it is an Israeli strategy

which is why Israel is fighting all of these wars because they have a strategy their strategy is

not not complicated it's pretty easy to understand but us being a part of that strategy and not having

our own reasons to do it is a huge I don't know like it where's the sovereignty like we like it's

like a nation that has sovereignty doesn't do this a nation that has sovereignty doesn't

follow the strategy of another state like that is just blatantly obvious the Israeli strategy

it's pretty it's pretty simple we all know it it's not it's not complicated it's that they want

the Americans to overthrow the regime in Iran how does this benefit America that's up for debate

I'm not going to get into I'm not going to get into that debate but it definitely it definitely

benefits the Israelis definitely benefits the Israelis because you're cutting off the head of the

snake which is how Netanyahu always speaks about Iran that all of these militia groups like the

Houthis like Hasbola like Hamas if you cut off Iran all these other groups will disintegrate

I don't believe that to be true but there's at least that's at least

that at least makes sense that that makes a ton of strategic sense and because Israel is so small

and Iran is so far away they can't do it themselves no matter how no matter how much how much air

power Israel has it's never going to take Iran it's never going to overthrow the government there

it's just not it just doesn't have the resources it's not possible it's too small it's too far away

so the strategy that Israel is having is very clear but that's not our strategy that's not the American

strategy and that's why nothing here makes sense well and it comes down to a very very fundamental

question which is one who is sovereign right because ultimately you know subrenity when we really

comes down to it it is do you have the ability to you know to wage war right on your own terms

and so you know we could look at a lot of European countries and say they're not sovereign at least

not fully sovereign and that's you know accurate analysis well if we're taking orders if we're

being strong armed it's like well okay clearly graded on a curve America is more sovereign than

you know probably a nation like Trinidad and Tobago you know I don't want to insult the Trinidadians

listening to this but I feel like I am safe in that assertion but on another level and I think

this is particularly interesting because as a long time observer of the sort of former liberals

in the conservative world right who tend to be quite Zionist it's interesting okay yeah I wasn't

going to say his name but that's who I meant you know there's of other people there too Shapiro

uh I guess he was not a former liberal but that went right the the neo neocons if you will

because one of the questions that drove those people into an apoplectic rage is the question of

well who is an American right because obviously if you have this idea of America first

you know the idea that the purpose of a country is to exist as a home for those people you know

like not quite nationalism but at least you know kind of kissing cousins well obviously the

question becomes well who counts right who's in the box and who isn't and I think it's interesting

that many of those same people I mean how a good example is you know Glenn Beck seemingly view the

purpose of America not as a home for Americans but is sort of a a booster rocket a battery for

this Middle Eastern democracy quote-unquote and by the way not everyone says that but

Glenn Beck quite literally did say that right that the purpose of America was to establish

the state of Israel and uh you know my personal opinions on uh Abrahamic religions aside uh

I don't think that's true right seemingly the purpose of well my nation is to be a home for

my people and the the consequences have been dramatic right the the polling on this is abysmal

the the polling for and look we understand you know polls are manipulated but I'll put it this way

this matches up with what I am seeing anecdotally with the things that my non-political friends

are saying and joking about what you see in you know kind of real life and then also in you

know the the kind of mean space even if it's non-political is that this war in our relationship to

Israel is astonishingly astonishingly unpopular one you have just the raw approval numbers so

Trump is underwater with white non-college attending voters for the first time ever right it was

something like a 40 point slump sense you know he started his presidency but even across the

board if we're just looking at purely support for Israel again is cratering absolutely cratering

right so these numbers I believe are MS now's uh formerly MSNBC so of course they're not likely to

be kind to the president but you know take it for what you will so for instance uh the net

favorability of Israel for Republicans under 50 now I mentioned earlier talking about Shapiro

that this number is even more dramatic for Republican men under 50 but this is just the pure

men and women both so in 2022 Israel is plus 28 right now for scant years later it's negative 16

and this is ostensibly in the core supporting supporting demographic among all men under age 50

but went from negative three to negative 47 approval moderate democrats went from plus three to minus

55 now Americans overwhelmingly after you know the uh the uh let's show we say the unpleasantness in

October swung from plus 12 for Israelis to plus 12 for Palestinians right or negative 11 for

Israelis although I assume there's someone who in that conflict feels the worst for I don't know

the Lebanese but point is in all seriousness right this is an apocalyptic explosion of domestic

political capital is going very very poorly and look I realize it hunger you and I are in a bubble

right a group of people who compared to the average person care much much more about foreign

policy than into the guy down the street but you don't really have to know a lot about foreign

policy to realize you're kind of getting screwed to realize that the the make America great again

what turns out that only really applied to you if you were a boomer or a guy with a tiny hat

better even if you're a combination of both and this divide particularly in the conservative world

is raging I'm sure hunger you remember the the the big blow up at heritage where the conclusion

was basically get rid of anyone under 40 they're probably a grouper you must be a grouper because

you wouldn't go to Shabbat dinner well okay that one blew up that one got big that one hit the press

but the same thing is happening everywhere the same thing is happening across conservative

institutions and by and large culture writ large and so 100% right college Republicans

I mean the young Republicans right which turns out I didn't realize this the young Republicans

is under 40 which you know look like we're kind of stretching the definition there but point is

right we see this fight over and over and over again and look this war would be unpopular even if

we did it all on our own because it's hitting people at the gas pumps it it seems to be

the Trump administration giving up on the domestic fight giving up on the list of promises

to break one right four and worse that would be bad enough but when you throw in the fact that

this war is tied at the hip to a country that as I intimated earlier is becoming less and less popular

well what do you think was going to happen

and Doug there's nowhere I wouldn't go to help someone customize and save on car insurance with

Liberty Mutual even if it means sitting front row at a comedy show hey everyone check out this

guy and his bird what is this your first date oh no we help people customize and save on car

insurance with Liberty Mutual together we're married need a human him to a bird yeah the bird

looks out of your league anyways only pay for what you need at Liberty Mutual dot com

let's be honest buying cannabis shouldn't be complicated sketchy or low quality

that's why I want to tell you about mood dot com that's m-o-o-d dot com mood ships federally legal

cannabis straight to your door no medical card no hassle and here's the kicker the quality is

better than anything you'll find at your local dispensary yeah I said it whether you're into

edibles concentrates flower or just looking to explore you'll find it all at mood and it's not

just the variety that makes them stand out every product is sourced from small American owned

family farms that care deeply about what they grow it's cannabis you can trust delivered

discreetly and ready to elevate your mood and because you're a listener you get 20% off your first

order just head to mood dot com that's m-o-o-d dot com to get started and to your point earlier about

you know the scenes from bay route like I'll I'll be honest man like I am not I am not Lebanese I've

never been to Lebanon I will probably never go to Lebanon so I'm not going to pretend to be biased

other than I like you you know we hang out every once in a while but you know I've met people

from all across the world but very fundamentally the insult to injury the fact that you know people

like me are being screwed that you know the economy is very very bad the fact that we're fighting a war

on behalf of other people is that we are not only fighting that war people like me are dying

on behalf of I don't know someone else but also the actual fighting in that war has been

brutish and nasty right even by the standards of modern war you have an unarmed ship

coming back from a naval exercise being blown up the first you know submarine kill in decades

you have an accidental and I truly do hope and pray that it was accidental strike on the

you know Iranian girls school which killed what 126 you have you know the strikes on bay route

right to civilian centers and then also at the same time it seems as if the atrocities have

ratcheted up back in Gaza right they're using this as air cover and sorry hungry I realize this

is supposed to be an interview show and you've got me on like a 20 minute rant anyway but I want to

finish this point and when you have allegedly American commentary you know people like Alan

Dershowitz people like Ben Shapiro prize the end if you can figure out what they have in common

well they'll tell you well you're part of the grievance party you're basically woke you know

you're just like the blue haired feminist if you think that there is something objectionable about

living in a country with no sovereignty you know people like you being blown up or blowing up

other people who've never really done anything wrong to you and I don't say this as a piece neck

I don't say this as someone who's opposed to war conceptually that understands that you know

modern wars are dangerous things they're nasty things but when it's done on behalf of someone else

when it is being done instead of something that would actually affect you that would make your life

better well forgive me if I don't find the claim that I am woke for objecting to that to be particularly

strong no 100 percent I agree with basically everything you said the question always goes back to

what was this for like you can ask you can ask that question for any war for any human conflict

in history what was it for and there are good reasons to have war there are many good reasons to have

for but what was this war for was it to advance was it to I don't know advance American

issuance interests in central Asia okay that's a reason I can understand it that's a reason that

makes sense that's a reason that makes sense but that's not what we're being told there are some

cope answers that this is too hurt China I don't believe that for a second I'd I'd

China Israel is very agnostic on China I don't I don't think that has anything to do with the

situation like another thing that people say is that you know we've only lost what 13 service

members was it like it might be a little more than that I can't I don't know I don't know the

exact number of American troops that we've lost but I think the last number I saw was 13 so I'll

just go with that like oh that's so little oh we lost you know we lost thousands of guys and

Iraq and Afghanistan which is which is totally true over 20 years we lost was it 6000 troops

and Iraq and Afghanistan over 20 years yeah so like okay 13 in a month like that's not good but

like that's nothing in comparison but like I said the only question that matters like okay what was

why did we lose those 13 guys to achieve to achieve what to achieve Schrodinger's blockade

to achieve Schrodinger's ceasefire to achieve the status quo if the goal is to achieve the status quo

then those 13 guys died in vain I'm sorry I'm sorry to say that and I really I love the American

military I know plenty of guys who served we both know plenty of guys who've served or half served

in the military like that is so depressing to think about well and when we say died in vain

it doesn't mean that those men didn't act valiantly you know that they weren't doing something

individually brave from the sheer kind of balance sheet element of it it's like okay well you are

in any war sort of betting lives to achieve an objective and well if the scope has shifted to

oh geez let's just get it back to how it was well there's a much better way to keep things

exactly as they are and that is not to start a war in the first place so what you've lost those

live you've lost they are the sunk cost you've already you know ended those lives and now you're

going to end more to just sort of get back to where we started and if it's a defensive war fair

enough right if you're trying to push someone back to a frontier they've invaded then that's

perhaps laudable and would would make sense you know they're sure a status quo anti in that sense

but it's not a union the Soviet Union lost five million men under arms and 15 million men

50 million civilians and five million men in the military what do they gain

they gain all of Eastern Europe and they destroyed Nazi Germany and they were the superpower

of the world and and like all of Asia that's what they gained at the cost of 20 million lives like

that is understandable like the number is tragic the number is horrifying but that makes sense just

in a purely amoral military calculation well certainly certainly and the other thing that makes

this just so irritating and difficult to talk about is just how much they lie constantly just

flagrant lie so for instance right we'll go back to the the girls school what was the first narrative

on the girls school well it was oh the Domoranians shot there in school they don't know how rockets

work then it was oh we don't know where it happened and then it was oh I guess it was an accident I'm

sorry and okay I understand again right it was near a military base that's a horrible accident

I could understand that and I even understand that there is in war there's a foggy element to it

and that there can't be perfect transparency but when the lies get more and more completely outrageous

right where it's like oh well the I guess the the the new I told her he's he's gay

you're like all right guys really like I mean maybe and I understand that that term has a different

that's different conception in that area of the world I'm not trying to be rude about that but

you know timing just look at I don't know Foucault you know he certainly had opinions on that I believe

it was Foucault wasn't it with the Iranian Revolution I don't know anyway I'm not trying to impune

the Persians here but yes yes but to me that's just like it's flagrant BS we see that sort of

lying constantly and when not only are we in this sort of bizarre subordinate position but also

our efforts at negotiating an end to this getting a deal are constantly being hampered by

an erstwhile ally right lead Iranian negotiators being assassinated you know blown up along with

his wife and Pakistan well even this whole ceasefire to begin with where you know we're like all right

great awesome we did it and then wait a minute Israel starts effectively you know bombing civilian

centers and in other nations that you know obviously Lebanon like wait a minute aren't you supposed

to be our greatest ally because seemingly we're you know not on the same page we've decided to do

something as on paper the majority partner right the guy with all the stuff the guy who doesn't

stop existing you know if they just pack up and go home like it's but we're not that's a problem

we're that's a problem we're not the majority partner Israel we are the minority partner Israel is

the majority partner every time we look for the exit because this is just what like we don't have

long-term interest in that region we just don't like we like we just don't it if it wasn't for

the g-watt and oil and Israel we would need nothing from the Middle East it would it literally would

not matter what happens there but Israel's strategy is playing out exactly as they probably see it

and we're trapped we are trapped we are tied to the hip at the Israelis they are going to keep us

tied to the hip and you see this in the media you see this how you see how Ben Shapiro

and Mark live in talk about this we are trapped in this terrible marriage with the Israelis and

they're not going to let us leave no matter how much we want to exit the Iranian you know conflict

how much we try to make a deal they are doing everything in their power to sabotage that from

happening yeah it's it's as you can tell a gentle audience this is an issue I have to be careful

on because I will say uh unadvisable things because of how angry this situation makes me

and I think that the thing that is sort of worrying going forward is it seems as if

there really isn't an easy off ramp that both the Israelis and we will accept

Iran is not winning this war in the sense that they are killing more of our guys than we are of

theirs but they are winning in the sense that they have they've got something new right control

of the state of Hormuz and we have lost something big namely uh control of the state of Hormuz

and as well it seems as if we have also lost a massive amount of legitimacy okay sure we didn't

do a full on World War II style mobilization uh I'm glad of that although who knows every time I

check the mail and always you know at least slightly relieved that there isn't a draft notice in it

but that matters we have squandered social capital on the international stage as well

and because of that there's understandably a desire to make that even you know like okay well maybe

we got off to a bad start but we really showed them in the end we still got it we're still top dog

so hunger as we sort of wrap this up where do you see this going where do you see this

developing right where does the war go from here it's it's just incredibly hard to see uh

again we're we're we're basically living in Schrodinger's war like there's Schrodinger's

straight there's Schrodinger's ceasefire there's Schrodinger's blockade

the only things that the only things I see that makes sense is the Israelis are going to keep doing

what they're doing they are going to force or at least pressure us and with all of their

leverage because Israelis are using all their leverage they are going all out there is no

stop there's no breaks on that train literally all of the you know capital of the APAC lobby and

the state of Israel is being used to conduct this war like Israel has already

Israel has always been the most hated country on earth for a very long time uh ever since the

cold war I should say ever since the end of the cold war I should say Israel's the most hated

country on earth they don't have capital with anybody the only thing they have left is the control

of the institutions that matter and that's diminishing as well because this situation is not

sustainable then that's what that's what changed after October 7th October 7th

revealed to all of us in the world that this situation is not sustainable that something has to

give and the Israelis are willing to die by the sword to make that secure the a future for their

children to use a famous phrase so hunger where can people find more of you and more of your work

you can just follow me at twitter at hunger die dye i remember of the old glory club so please

follow the old glory club as well well sure thing i appreciate that hunger as far as my stuff

you guys know where to find me apple spotify youtube pretty much anywhere you can listen to podcasts

you want to support me you do that a couple ways one just by

giving me money right if you pay me five bucks a month you get an episode or the episodes

rather early and add free can also check out our sponsor Axios remote fitness coaching

JD is good at what he does you can make you stronger and less fat and also with your subscription

you get the ability to call me gay in a group chat every morning and i've been told that's

quite the value at anyway guys appreciate it everything home keep your head up i can't last forever

good night

And Doug, there's nowhere I wouldn't go to help someone customize and save on car insurance

with Liberty Mutual, even if it means sitting front row at a comedy show.

Hey everyone, check out this guy and his bird.

What is this your first date?

Oh no, we help people customize and save on car insurance with Liberty Mutual together.

We're married.

Need a human?

Him to a bird.

Yeah, the bird looks out of your league anyways.

Only pay for what you need at Liberty Mutual.com.

Liberty, Liberty, Liberty, Liberty.

You're jamming near a favorite song and while you aren't missing a beat, you could be missing

a signal from your body.

It's an SOS from your kidneys and it doesn't sound like music at all.

It's silent.

High blood pressure, type 2 diabetes and other risk factors can quietly stress the kidneys

leading to negative impacts on the heart.

That's why you should ask your doctor about a simple urine test called UACR.

Most miss the signal for hidden kidney disease and related heart risk.

You shouldn't.

Visit, detect the SOS.com today to learn more.