Sell Off Over Soon?📉Crypto Market Update

0:00Is the sell-off over soon? Today we'll break it down. A lot happening out there in the market. I do want to thank our sponsor and that is Tangent where you guys can get into self-custody. Some super cool deals though. You can actually get into some of these limited edition cards for self-custody. These work with your phone and it is a place where you can park assets and of course do it in a secure way. Get some additional rewards in both Bitcoin and get the limited edition wallet very simple to do. All you have to do is go over to Tangent.com. YouTube can secure your crypto hardware wallet and do it very easily and super safe. So check it out. Use our link down below to get started. Let's get into a few points I want to lead off with and of course one of the lead off points will be Tom Lee and where he thinks this market is right now. Take a look. Would you buy the market today? Yeah. I think we're 90 to 95% through the sell-off. What gives you that confidence? Well I think some of its positioning and Goldman had a really nice piece about

1:00hedge fund positioning. That's right. Their note was basically like look we've observed a lot of hedge funds selling which looked like capitulation activity to us so maybe that's run its course so now you can perhaps build that base back up. Yeah so I think that's one component. The second is retail sentiments very negative because the AI bowls less bears is minus 20. That's a tactical sign. The VIX closed above 30 and now I think earning season that's going to show earnings probably going to hold up better. And then the last piece there is I think we're just going to have to realize that stocks tend to bottom early in a war times situation. So we've looked at every war since 1900. Stocks will bottom within the first 10% of that war. So if this is a you know two-year war it's we're going to bottom pretty early into that process. So if you are on Tom Lee's side let me know if you guys are. Are you on the back half of this bear market? Let me know in the comments down below. If you want to follow Jim Kramer he had a few points. Three ways the stock market will

2:05flip the US or flip if the US and the Iranian war ends. I want to highlight a couple of them. We saw what could happen if you give piece a chance. So if we see any kind of piece deal obviously that's going to be a big thing. You also noted that we're starting to see tinier treasuries making a major reversal risk also from higher energy costs lower odds of the Federal Reserve cutting in 2026 that would be another factor. Other things he kind of hit it on right here we didn't know going into war would would actually affect our farmers. That's another issue because we're starting to see other commodities, fertilizers, etc. that are going to affect food supply. These kind of things are the concern I have. So it's raising a lot of concerns also around deal making. So beyond what's happening in Wall Street if you look at the lagging effects that this war may have on supply chain and also some of the key supply chain areas such as food supplies, LNG, other things that could flow into this even if you look at where we are ground beef hitting an all time high. These things are happening right now. Now remember all of this happens then you

3:09start to see consumer sentiment impact then consumer reaction. So we are still a ways out before we start to see retail reaction which is the bigger area that I'm more concerned with right now what Tom Lee was talking about earlier was the lagging earnings. All those are coming from previous quarters which were pretty good for most Fortune 500. So that in itself still isn't early phase and it could be one of those things where maybe this is nearing the bottom and of course everything hinges on what Trump is going to do. I want to go to another clip real quick because this is where Tom Lee is trying to set up an actual strategy. Take a look. Ugly again there's like no it doesn't feel like there's an ability for a stock like that in a group that went straight up into the right to find any stability there. Mega caps they haven't looked great at all and the only thing I can find people saying good about them as well well look at their multiples now. They've compressed a lot in the pullback. Yeah we're in the

4:15fire ready aim phase right where any little bad news is going to cause people to de-risk but as you know that's why the positioning is something to watch because at some point people have gotten too neutral and then less bad things can happen in the market as a V-shaped recovery. So less bad things to neutral then you compile that along with what's happening tonight with President Trump and this is really going to boil down to the next 12 hours at 9 p.m. Eastern will have Trump delivering a televised speech on Iran. A lot of this is I think is going to be him just boasting on what they've accomplished and all that. Now does he get into a ceasefire or an ending of the war? That would be number one. Number two would be hey we're going to continue and we're going to go into a ground evasion that would absolutely be stifling for markets and then number three I think which is my prediction it won't be much important I think he'll stump a little bit in the sense of just saying we did all this we are building we're continuing to

5:15show this but you know the Iranians are bad and we're dealing with this as we go I think it's going to boil down to that it's going to kick the can down the road we'll see if that changes. I hope that we get an announcement of some sort of peace deal that would be huge. Now the Iranian Foreign Minister they are actually talking about a peace deal not a ceasefire an actual peace deal ending the war and I think that is a key thing if we start to see those kind of talks come out then dare I say you know that is one of the things that Kramer kind of hit on but I think everybody kind of knows that that's an obvious now there's a lot of the things though that play into this and that of course is where we're dealing with market I won't call it yeah I'm going to call it manipulation because we've seen this manufactured FOMO a lot of profiteering that has occurred you guys have seen this with these radical moves on both oil some of the defense stocks even in Bitcoin and in crypto in general we've already seen a lot of that one other thing that is a major issue that resides within this deal is the straight off our moves

6:18and the traffic this has got to return to normal before we exit and of course Trump may be trying to exit without this I don't know if you guys have been watching what he's doing on truth social but he's actually saying hey the EU and other nation states should get it active and involved in trying to get into diplomatic arrangements I don't know if that's going to be good enough of you know from a lens coming out of the US if we were to escape or exit this war before the straight-of-war moves is open that still puts a lot of pressure on the sentiment in the markets in general and I want to go to a clip real quick because can he leave without actually opening the straight this is where they break it down which spoke to the reporting for the Wall Street Journal of maybe that end date hostilities in Iran without reoccurring the straight what do you do with this well maybe you just focus on what's going on in the region and frankly every analyst and investor who's come on the show today has said look at what is feasible and it is infeasible for the US to pull out for this war to be over without the straight-of-war moves being a passage

7:23of free flow for trade and that's I think with a lot of people just keep focusing on all right so one point that they hit on there at first fall I will say this none of us are war analysts I think history is going to go and look at this in a very interesting lens in the future one of the lenses it will look at is the amount of damage and baggage that it put on the Trump administration part of that of course shows up in Trump's sentiment numbers and the numbers keep trending down from the very top that was the doge fall off then we've just continued to see liberation day the justice department government shutdowns were in a good the Iranian war all of this has been just down and and lower lows you know for sentiment now what does this mean can can the market recover without Trump's administration sentiment recovering I think it could now will have a long-term effect I think it really depends on how Trump tries to repair that going into the midterms if in fact that they can do that at all and one of the things that plays into this is where the

8:27market is starting to showcase shift talks about it right here gold is up another hundred today gold stocks already adding five and that was after a seven percent surge yesterday it's not because the war is always because investors are realizing regardless of what Trump is doing in terms of the war progress it's accelerating the move out of dollars now do you think that is a case why haven't we seen Bitcoin in these five and seven percent moves is that still a speculative asset and gold is the alternative flight to safety let me know what you guys think as gold remember hit fifty four hundred it has retail sound significantly and is now starting to edge back up towards the five k what could that be well if you look at it right here futures now surge above forty eight hundred this is up seven twenty cents March twenty third low and that was the the tip of the drop that we saw that now adding three trillion in market that's the entire crypto market and that's just since Wednesday all right so maybe there is something here if you look at the chart right here you can kind of see the movement right there from forty three and if you go in the dip

9:30that all almost went all the way down to four thousand dollars announced of course that was for short period of time after some I think market funny business but right there one two three four days up right now in the daily chart trading at forty seven eighty four at time or recording other things you got to hit on of course is the fact that Iran is exacting a toll and they're asking for payment in you on and this is done of course on the transition of ships going through the strait this is for all I think all tankers and this will play a bigger role I think in maybe the negotiations this might be a negotiation ploy by the Iranians to try to get into a better deal with coming to an agreement with the Trump administration I want to go to a clip real quick because Andre jick breaks it down on is gold done on this rally or not take a look and in order to get control you need control over two things which is oil and gold for example Iran has the choke point it controls the straight of her moves of which 20% of the world's oil

10:30blows through every day and Iran is using that leverage to make an offer to the world they're offers this hey guys the straight is actually open you can pay for your oil in Chinese you on and then we'll let your ships through safely and of course China has the payment rails so the actual transaction looks something like this you sell your dollars you buy your gold you sell that gold to China in exchange for you on you take that you want to Iran and then you buy the oil and your ship gets home safely all right so China now gets to sort of be right in the middle of this transaction it gets to decide the exchange rate between gold and oil which means China's deciding what the dollar is worth relative to everything else and Iran has created a toll booth for the whole world and the toll booth has to be paid in you on which is paid in gold now there is a problem though the oil market makes about 4.1 trillion

11:32dollars worth of oil every year it's a lot and the entire gold market makes only about 485 billion which means the oil market is roughly nine times bigger than gold the demand shock to gold could be unlike anything the market's ever seen because the gold market is just too small to absorb oil without the price moving in a very big way all right so there you have it and this of course plays out if in fact the current situation handles for a year in other words if we continue to see the demand of Chinese you on being the transitory asset that's trying to enact you purchasing oil that would happen for a year that would put continued pressure on the dollar and of course put more assets into gold and I think this is going to be one that we'll see if this plays out that way or if something is negotiated because this could be a big negotiating ploy by Iran to get the administration in the right place all right so the real question here is what does this

12:34do to assets when you look at securities but also risk one of the things that you have to compare to is what if the securities market continues to trend down gold goes up what happens to risk well here's Warren Buffett begging that down well let's talk about that the market has come down substantially you've got both the Dow and the Nasdaq in correction territory it's the worst performance on a quarterly basis for stocks in about four years do things look cheaper to you no three times since I've taken over for sure it's one down more than 50 percent I mean if you look at the markets of all the worst probably was the 2007 eight period although it was that one Monday one yet 21 percent in a day I mean uh this is nothing I mean it uh this is nothing to make

13:36you get excited and think there's huge valuation their five or six percent cheaper that doesn't we are in it to make five or six percent the point that I think Warren's getting at is that we are in a position where we could see volatility still yet you look at the front end of the show it's Tom Lee kind of the new innovation of investors saying no we're we're nearing the bottom you look at guys have been around almost a hundred years you know since the 1929 crashes we've seen he says he's seen that before the real question is is does all of this play into gold how the AI play comes into this and you look at risk assets all of that is really centered around what's happening right now in the macro market and all boils down to a meeting tonight at nine o'clock so we're gonna cover that and more so stick around for that if you like this video hit like and subscribe drop a comment down below and also join our free

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