‘Selling Opportunity Of A Lifetime’ Warns Trader: 2008 ‘Nightmare Scenario’ Nears | Todd Horwitz

I expect a pretty nasty collapse.

So I expect something similar to 2008,

the Banks Rover Loverage and the Federal Reserve is worthless.

There's a wave of capital outside of private credit

while, meanwhile, JV's working as marking down the loan book.

Does this mean anything to you?

Private equity, you're in trouble.

And they're telling you that there's a problem.

Unfortunately, investors and most people

don't admit to a problem until it's too late.

I'm sure, I'm actually right now,

I'm sure gold, gold, crude, and the equities.

We're speaking right now on Friday, March 13th.

And last night, there was a huge sell-off in equities.

As oil, it highs not since 2022,

spooking investors and companies alike.

And right now, the market's open today this morning,

pretty much flat, slightly up rebounding.

But now, as we're speaking,

it's starting to slide back down again

with the S&P and NASDAQ, both slightly in the red.

And so, this is the beginning of a bigger crash up ahead.

We're gonna find out.

Maybe this morning's bounce was just a dead cap bounce.

Top up a Horowitz joins us today to talk about oil,

stocks, gold, silver, and much, much more taught

is the founder of bummertrading.com.

And by the way, check out my new channel.

It's a clips channel linked down below.

I just started this week.

It's for people who don't have a lot of time

to watch an entire 30-minute conversation.

They just want highlights of the conversation.

And they want to jump to the parts

that they want to see the most, the assets

that they follow the most.

So, check it out.

I think it's a very useful second channel

for those of us with a little less time.

Thank you so much for coming back in the show, Todd.

Good to see you again.

This is a very exciting week.

A very volatile week and a very important week

to have a trader like yourself on.

Welcome back.

David, it's always great to be with you.

A great show and I enjoy being here.

Thank you.

We enjoy having you.

Oil at highs, not seen since the beginning

of the Ukraine war.

And I want to get your thoughts

on what you're doing as a trader.

Right now, I'm going to pull up the oil chart.

And it looks like it's not just oil

that we should be concerned about.

It's the entire market.

Given that if oil goes up,

a lot of companies have lower margins.

And so that's where a lot of the January fears

are coming from this week.

That and I think private credit is all over the news.

We'll talk about that just a bit.

But WTI at $93, what are you doing with oil first and foremost?

Oh, oil, I'm a seller oil.

I'm short oil.

And of course, I was a seller Sunday night

when they spiked up to 119.

First of all, when you look at a chart,

from a technical standpoint, you look at a chart,

go back three weeks and look at silver when it hit 120.

The parabolic direction of this market cannot be sustained.

This is purely a fur trade right now.

And if you weigh in the true fundamentals of what's going on,

only 20% of the world's oils go through the straits of our moves

and none of its WTI.

So if you look out into the future,

a year from now, oil is trading at $69.

So they're telling you that right now,

all you're paying for in oil here is a fear premium.

Now it has a very real effect on the consumer.

It brings up higher inflation.

It brings in a lot of bad things.

But I would not be surprised

as soon as this thing resolves out,

to see oil back in the 70s or 60s.

And I think it'll get there rather quickly

once we're ready to go.

We've seen these type of moves before.

And I think the correct side of the oil trade

is to the short side.

I don't mean just running and sell it now,

but on a big rally, if we get another rally,

let's say back to 96.

I think that's a great spot to sell it.

I think that's kind of where we settled all week after that

ridiculous spike up on Sunday night to 119.

And again, I think you're going to see this market consolidate

and I think eventually it will break to the downside again.

So you're assuming that this entire conflict

is going to get resolved soon?

I didn't mean that the conflict doesn't have

to really all resolve.

Again, we go back to the math,

only 20% of the world oil goes in,

but yet oil is up almost 100%.

So again, this will resolve out,

but so far, it's only really should have effect

more on Brent than on WTI oil.

We have ability to produce more.

We have more refiners coming online.

So there's going to be plenty of supply.

We have plenty of supply in this country.

So again, I go back to the,

it's a fear premium that's being priced in this market right now.

It's no different than what happened on the opposite side.

If you remember during COVID,

oil went negative for one day, okay?

You get too much fear, you get too much greed

and all of a sudden you get a chart

and a tactical pattern that's so far out of whack

that it can only really go one way.

Can we rally five bucks in or ten bucks, you sure?

But I think that would be an outstanding place to sell it.

This may be one of those products

that is selling out for community of a lifetime.

By the way, just to help your point,

this is from the IEA.

They're member countries, 32 member countries,

agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil

from their emergency reserves.

So that's going to help with supply.

This is Pete Hacksett saying that don't worry about it.

He said when asked about the straight-off hormones,

let's just take a listen to what he's saying here.

For the world to hear and the press to actually admit

that the United States is decimating

the radical Iranian regime's military

in a way the world has never seen before.

Never before has a modern, capable military

which Iran used to have been so quickly destroyed

and made combat ineffective, devastated.

We said it would not be a fair fight and it has not been.

As I stated during our first press conference on day two,

that was 10 short days ago,

the combination of the world's two most powerful air forces

is unprecedented and unbeatable.

Between our air force and that of the Israelis

over 15,000 enemy targets have been struck.

That's well over 1,000 a day.

No other combination of countries in the world can do that.

Okay, later he was asked,

what are we doing with the state of four moves?

We have been dealing with it and don't need to worry about it.

I mean, as a trader, are you worried about it at all?

No, I like the fear factor that others are worried about it

because again, it gives me a better price to sell it.

Again, we have to look at,

we have to weigh in all the factors that go into it.

A, our economy is not in very good shape.

So the demand for oil was already down before any of this started.

So once again, I go back to,

this is a fear premium that's built in.

If it's the oil markets are in what is called backwardation.

And if you look out into oil,

in fact, I'm gonna give you the exact prices right now.

Okay, if you look out in the oil right now,

the current oil we're trading at 94.60.

If you go out a month, you're trading at 92.

You go out another month, you're trading at 89.

So we're going down two to three dollars a month,

going into the future, which tells you

that all you're seeing here is a fear trade.

And the minute that fear goes away,

and is it tomorrow?

Is it next week?

The minute it goes away, oil will drop 20%.

In the meantime, it's already overpriced

based on demand, based on what's going on

and based on supply.

So the fear that you are seeing now

will eventually dissipate and the sellers will come in

and they'll come in very hardly, I think.

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I'm guessing then you should be long the equities

if the fear factor is gonna go away for oil, is that true?

Well, no, now the equities have been very much overpriced

and if you look at the case, the case-shildered Cape Index,

which, it's not over 40 now,

but last week of the time it was over 40.

The mean or the median is about 16.

So the stock market has been extremely overvalid

as you and I talked about before.

And I'm still looking for that pretty dramatic sell-off.

And I think we have broken to the downside

out of a consolidating pattern.

And I think that you should be a trader,

you're looking to sell every rally.

And I don't mean a two-cent rally.

I mean, I'm talking about, like right now,

the S&P, the March S&P, which were in the middle of Rollover

was trading at 6,700.

If we would rally back to 6,800,

that would be a spot that I'd be looking to sell it.

There's going to be some big rallies as there are,

but I think we're definitely headed in

to a bear market phase.

And I think that the sellers are going to overwhelm

because, again, you have a very weak economy.

We are in what is called a k-shape economy.

We're only five to 10% of the population

is doing anything well here.

The rest of them are struggling with debt,

the inability to pay bills, the link-winsies on their home,

the link-winsies on their cars.

Where's the money going to come to support the market now?

Right.

So are you short then, right now, on the S&P?

I'm sure, actually right now, I'm sure gold,

some gold, crude, and the equities.

And I will stay there, though,

my one caveat is would be gold

because I do believe gold is going to break the upside again.

I think gold's in a consolidation pattern,

which will break for the upside along with silver.

I think the equities have a long way to go on the downside.

And it wouldn't surprise me at all

if we were down in the next, let's say, six weeks,

eight to 15%.

So you'd be a buyer at maybe 6,000 points on the S&P 55.

I doubt we would, listen, there's going to be points, David.

You know, markets give you a lot of signals

if you're willing to watch and listen to them.

If we get very oversold, okay, which we will,

that would probably be a chance

because we're going to have, as we call it in the industry,

we're going to have some rip your face off rallies

where rallies are going to come out of nowhere

and you're going to see 150 point move in the S&P,

a 1,000 point move in the Dow, you know,

a 500 point move in the Nasick.

But those are just short squeezes,

those are short covering rallies.

And very quickly, they typically dissipate.

But again, you want to be prepared for those.

So when I can see that coming,

I will cover my short positions

and take a long position for a short period of time

because I know it's coming.

I've seen it coming in the most vicious rallies you ever get.

Come in markets that are either in bear markets

or going into a bear market.

The fact that your short gold, oil and stocks

makes me wonder, what are you long on right now?

Well, I'm still long silver.

And obviously there are some equities that I'm still long

and I still have, as a trader, remember,

we have to look at it from two hats.

As a trader, I'm pretty much short a lot.

I am long natural gas, okay?

But I'm also short the bond market

because I think interest rates are going higher.

But from an equity sampling, from an owner, from an investor,

I'm still long everything.

I have the ability to use derivatives

to hedge my portfolio.

So I know my exact amount of risk that I have

on my retirement accounts and everything else.

I don't sell stock or equities

when we get into these positions.

I actually look to buy more.

But as a trader, which is obviously much more short term,

it can be an hour to a week, to a two weeks who knows,

I'm looking to short.

So one thing doesn't melt with the others.

From a trader standpoint, I'm short almost everything.

Okay, I'm long, the grain markets,

I'm long natural gas, okay, and silver.

Everything else, I'm pretty much short

and we'll look to be short that

and I'm getting ready to look to short the dollar

up if it gets back to power,

which is very close right now.

By shorting the dollar, do you mean the Dixie index?

Okay.

Would you consider yourself automatically long the dollar

if you were long the equities?

Is that something that?

Yeah, your dollar certainly affects,

the dollar affects the commodity market,

the dollar affects your equities.

So you're basically long the dollar,

so I would be shorting the dollar.

But again, I look at it from an independent trade.

The dollar reaches power, which is one dollar to me,

it would be due for a sell off back to 98 cents.

I think right now you've watched it for a while.

The range in the dollar has been 98 cents to a dollar

and I look at expect that to go down.

And I expect to see, as I expect to see a lot of things

be under a lot of pressure with what's going on

and what these overall prices,

we all know that the vendors take big advantage

of these types of movement.

Certainly in the oil, we've seen the price of the pump

screw up 60 or 70 cents, which means that your goods

and services that you go to the grocery store

are going higher as well because of the cost of delivery.

So the recession I think we're in anyways

is only going to get worse.

Whether that's for real reason, for no real reason,

we know that every manufacturer,

everybody takes advantage of these types of situations

to increase profit.

Now you're sure you, when we come out to second

and third quarter earnings, fourth quarter earnings

and some of these oil companies and some of these other things,

you're going to see massive amounts of profit

because of the advantage they took of the situation

that's going on right now.

Speaking of the recession, these are latest numbers

from the BEA.

Fourth quarter GDP revised down to just 0.7%.

Economic growth was much slower than expected

in the first three months of 2025,

while core inflation rose to start 2026

Commerce Department reported Friday, which is today.

GDP measure of all goods and services produced across

the US economy rose as seasonally

and inflation adjusted annual rate of just 0.7%

in the fourth quarter.

The first revision of the GDP reading was a sharp step down

from the previous estimate of 1.4%

and well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 1.4%.

I wonder why the markets aren't moving down on this news.

Maybe they've already priced it in, who knows.

The markets on trade, first of all,

we're in a whole different world, David.

You know, all that information is kind of priced

into the market.

Everybody kind of knew that the numbers

that they were forecasting weren't going to be there.

There's the firms, the money's already kind of set up

at a time.

You know, we're not in the days where you have to sit

and wait for the announcement and the news to come out.

Pretty much Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan,

they've got a pretty good idea because you can track this stuff.

If you know the numbers to watch going into it,

what creates the GDP number, what creates the jobs number,

then you can be pretty much prepared for it.

And we don't get those types of surprises anymore

like we used to get.

I mean, when I first started trading,

when news was going to come out,

we will have to stand in front of a 12 inch LED screen

waiting for the news to hit the table

because it didn't come out

because the internet was not what it is today.

Now, the news is already out.

People are already prepared for it.

And of course, right now with the lack of participation

of the middle class who are not participating

in this market, other through potentially 401Ks,

you don't get the CD amount of action

to the controlling factors of the market,

the people that are controlling it,

they've already got it and they've already got the number.

So you don't really see much movement.

I mean, this morning's movement was almost zero

on GDP, the market's hardly budged.

Okay.

And so your assessment of the economy overall,

given the data you've looked at?

I think it's horrible.

I think that, you know,

other than the upper, let's say 10%,

I think the rest are struggling.

I think that their debt is getting massively higher

than it's being facilitated by the credit card companies

that are allowing people to buy now and pay in 2027,

which we know what a disaster that's going to be.

Mortgage the link with these mortgages aren't coming down.

I think we're very much overbuilt in a lot of areas.

I expect a pretty nasty collapse once again.

I expect something similar to 2008.

I think the banks are overlavered.

I think the Federal Reserve is worthless.

You know, they're rate cut cycle.

If you go back and look, they cut rates five times

in the last two years,

yet the 10 year notes have gone up 200 basis points.

So they cut 150 basis points or 200 basis points.

The 10 year notes went up 200 basis points.

Where's the advantage for the consumer?

Well, there's not because the Federal Reserve

is not in business to benefit the consumer.

The Federal Reserve is in business to benefit

the banks that own it.

Okay, so I think that this is going to get very ugly.

I think it's going to be a lot of struggling

not to mention all the jobs we're losing.

You know, AI is replacing lots of management jobs.

Those aren't low-paying jobs.

Those are high-paying jobs

and those people aren't getting other jobs anywhere else.

They are going away and they aren't coming back.

So another issue to deal with it down the road.

Speaking of 2008,

this story's been blowing up all over Twitter

and social media and I guess some people

have been exaggerating the way they interpret this,

but I'm going to get your takes.

JP Morgan marking down loan portfolios

of private credit groups.

The bank informed private credit lenders

that it had marked down the value of certain loans

in their portfolios,

which serve as the collateral the funds used

to borrow from the bank,

according to people familiar with the matter.

The move will limit how much money JP Morgan

lends to private credit groups

against those loans going forward.

Now this comes as other banks on Wall Street

have been limiting redemptions on private credit funds

and as investors start redeeming their funds,

the banks have stopped that.

So there's a wave of capital outside of private credit

while meanwhile JP Morgan is marking down the loan book.

Does this mean anything to you?

I'm sure it means they smell a problem.

It means they want to try to be ahead of the problem.

Look at BlackRock.

BlackRock and can't get redemptions right now.

Okay, private equity, you're in trouble

and they're telling you that there's a problem

and of course unfortunately,

investors and most people,

even the higher executives,

they don't admit to a problem until it's too late.

And of course, you're seeing it playing out

right in front of your eyes

and it is no different than when Paulson

went on face-to-nation in September of 2008

that the banks were safe and sound.

Well, they weren't safe and sound.

And I would like to bet, I can't prove this.

But I would like to bet that the banks

are not in good shape now.

They're over-leverage and they'd be ridiculous stress test

that we hear that they do every quarter

is all garbage and not true.

I think the banks are significantly over-leverage

and I think that's what JP Morgan's message is telling you

is they've got to cut down their exposure

to these bad loans that they're holding

and that's what they're trying to do.

By the way, this is a slightly off topic.

We were talking about the economy,

the Canadian economy isn't doing much better.

Canada's posted its worst job losses in over four years.

Unemployment has jumped to 6.7% youth joblessness,

tops 14%, more than 108,000 full-time positions have vanished.

This is a country that's smaller than California FYI.

So, Becca Canada probably not doing much right now.

What needs to happen for the Canadian economy

and the US economy is to turn around?

It's pretty low to question, but what do you think is going on?

I think the first thing you have to do

is you have to have a big bust.

I mean, unfortunately, I think you need the big nasty sell-off

as we saw in 2008 or in 2001 or in 1987 or in 1929 again.

You need to bust out.

There are too many businesses in business

that don't belong in business and one of the problems

when you have a central banking system globally

or the Federal Reserve in the United States,

trying to facilitate and support failed businesses.

The whole key to capitalism is that when you're weak

and you fail, they let you fail

so somebody new can come in and take your place.

But because of what the Fed has done in central banks

and then with interest rates trying to manipulate the rates,

they've created a much bigger mess for most.

And of course, that will lead to some pretty severe

ugliness in my opinion.

And I believe that that is where we're headed.

I think we're headed to that nightmare scenario

because again, we have a K-shaped economy,

which means very few people are doing well.

We have a job losses at record numbers

and of course, they just adjusted if you didn't hear or not,

but they just adjusted last year's jobs

by a minus 874,000, okay?

So now you look at, we're losing jobs

which are not coming back.

We're not developing new business

or trying to hold in old businesses that are failing.

The banks are holding a lot of bad paper.

Card dealers are now offering nine and 10 year car loans.

I mean, when I grow up, the longest loan you get

was three years, okay?

So they're trying to stretch out debt

so that they can get paid, recognizing that there's a much

bigger problem coming down the road

and that a lot of the linkancies

and a lot of failures are coming in.

I think that will be the impetus

for the next market meltdown.

What needs to happen to create new jobs?

Anything that needs to happen is you need to allow new business

to come in and take place of old business.

You can't keep supporting old business

as getting rid of their jobs.

It's good since this AI is not,

it may be great for some things

but it is not great for employees.

It is not great for a big percentage of the population

because it is replacing those jobs.

And unfortunately, it's very hard

for a small business to come in right now

because they're at such a disadvantage to bigger business.

So what we've created is this too big

to fail type environment and many things.

But what needs to happen is the weak businesses

need to go out of business, okay?

Governments need to cut their spending, okay?

The United States, for example,

needs to get rid of the post office.

Now I'm not saying fire all the employees

in the post office but certainly their expenses

are probably three times what they should be.

But unfortunately in all governments,

they continue to spend money that they don't have

because they have the taxpayer to pit the foot the bill.

And that is what creates more problems are created

by bad government and I've never found a good government

so it's hard to find a good one.

But that is fiscally responsible

and not continuing to give away money knowing

because government doesn't make money, they make debt.

And the debt gets satisfied by the consumer,

by the taxpayer.

So the Ponzi scheme that has been run in governments

is coming to an end right now

and it's creating a lot more pressure on jobs,

on everything else that we do.

And that's one of the things it has to be fixed as well

which I doubt that it'll be fixed anytime soon.

Are you bullish on any of the hard commodities

like copper and tin and palladium inside?

Copper has been very interesting.

Copper is a lot of talk about how much copper is needed

for AI now.

Copper's been hovering around $6 on both sides.

So it certainly looks pretty good, okay?

I'm certainly bullish to the grain market, okay?

I thought the grain, I think the grains are bottom.

So I'm certainly bullish to the grain market.

I'm certainly bullish cotton, okay?

A lot of the beaten down commodities

because one of the things that does happen

is when markets do shift

and we do get that sellup that I'm talking about

if we get it, that money normally will go into

the grain markets, it'll go into the soft commodity markets

because that's what a lot of these funds run

and that's what it'll take the money

because they're not active until there's money freed up.

So I think the commodity space looks pretty solid.

In addition, I like gold and silver too.

From my physical standpoint, I'm an owner

of gold, silver, and platinum, okay?

But from a trader standpoint right now,

I am short gold.

But I haven't sold my long gold that I own.

I mean, again, it's like one against the other.

So I think gold is a great place to be.

The grains are a great place to be.

The only commodity that I would stay away from in here

right now would be the cattle markets

because I think they're extremely overvalued here.

Yeah, and maybe walk us through how you decide

when to get shorter long something,

but that helps the viewers decide

because a lot of people are in the same position as you are.

They're maybe they bug gold a while ago

and they're thinking of offloading

and they don't know when the top is.

Nobody knows really about how did you decide

that now is a good time to be shorting gold?

Well, we've gotten to a point where we had the big rally up

towards 50, 600, we came back and started to consolidate

in a wider range.

There were about 5,000 to about 5,400.

When we got near back near 5,400,

to me, that was a trigger, that was a resistance level

that I could have been wrong.

It could have gone right through it,

but that's a probability place.

So if you look at, if you have the willingness

to look at a chart and for the average price

you've gone to look at a daily or a weekly chart,

it will point areas that the markets become either oversold

or overbought.

You're in an overbought market, okay?

You want to be a seller of that overbought market

until those conditions result.

Because the market, excuse me.

The markets go through basically three phases.

They go through consolidation.

They then break out either up or down

and eventually all big moves end off usually in a blowoff.

And that'll go back to the crude trade

that I showed you, you showed the chart when you opened.

To me, that Sunday night blowoff was the end of the rally.

Okay, and so far it's, whether it's at $90 or not,

it still has come down $25 from the highs that it made,

which is 25%.

Awesome.

Todd, I really appreciate your thoughts.

Tell us where we can find your work.

We'll follow up next time.

BubbaTraining.com, check it out.

And of course, if you have any questions,

you can always email me direct at all.

I'll answer you at BubbaTraining.com

and David, just always great to be with you.

Have a great show and I enjoy it.

Always good to have you back.

And yes, please do reach out to Bubba,

links down below and we'll have him back on Zoom.

And also write to us if you have questions

for Bubba next time.

Thank you so much.

We'll have you on Zoom.

Thanks, David, I appreciate you.

Take care for now and thank you for watching.

Don't forget to like, subscribe.