Semis Slide, Oil Climbs, Nike Results on Deck… And The Latest Use Case For GLP-1’s 3/30/26

Live to the Nasdaq Market site in the heart of New York City Times Square, this is Fast

Money.

Here's what's on-touch tonight.

A memory lapse, chip name seeing some major intraday reversals served in at the open,

but ending sharply lower, what do the wild swings tell us about this trade?

We'll debate that.

In Lily's AI push, the Parma Giants' latest deal to bring AI discovered drugs to market

and what it could mean for R&D in the industry.

Plus why one technician says today's bounce is no reason to turn positive on Metta,

can Nike just do it in tomorrow's earnings report and McDonald's puts the golden in

the Golden Arches, how its newest K-pop inspired offerings could bring in millions for the fast

food chain.

I'm Melissa Lee.

Come to your life and see you at the Nasdaq on-the-design, Tim Seymour, Guy Adami, and Katie

Softin, founder and managing partner at Fairleaf Strategies.

Welcome to Katie.

Thank you.

And we start off with the chip wreck on Wall Street that kept stocks in the red and brought

the S&B 500 closer to correction territory to kick off the week.

The S&H ETF dropping over 3% on pace for its worst month since December 2022, big-time

memory names like Micron, Sandes, Seagate, Western Digital actually started the day well

in the green before falling deep into the red.

Each one ending the day, 9% or more off the session's best levels.

The biggest names in the space in VDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Intel weren't spared either,

Intel downed more than 4%.

So what does today's action tell us about investors' belief in the AI trade?

Or maybe about the economy, since it's so cyclical, Tim, what's your...

Well, I feel like the kiss of death was somewhere Wednesday or Thursday last week, we were

asked what the most important chart in the market was, and I said that you were actually

seeing Semi's possibly going to make new relative highs to the S&P.

Since that point, they have under-performed by 6% in three sessions, and I think that's

massively important.

I think even while Nvidia has kind of stalled and passed the torch to other parts of the

Semi-conductor chain, it has still been a place where you're getting the growth

where the multiples are, in most cases, until you got to memory, actually still were

very viable.

I think it's absolutely a concern, market leadership in terms of market weights, great

having Katie here tonight, she can talk about both the technical and the weighting significance.

I mean, there's just a lot of math to do here that tells you it's a problem for the market,

and I think if you look at the indices overall, as we've said, they really weren't starting

to show a whole lot of pain until now, and I get the sense that people are playing

very short-term in terms of volatility and selling out two to three weeks and reloading

the gun, and I don't think we know where people are positioned.

Nvidia made its all-time high on people realize, in November of last year at 212, here

we are at 165, which by the way is a huge support level going back all the way to last summer.

It's imperative, I think, that it holds here, and it's been under-performing, but Micron

is down 32% since they reported earnings.

It's only a couple weeks ago.

That's a pretty significant move, I guess, if there's a silver lining to Micron, if it's

a trade of two times normal volume, say a trade of about 75 million shares, which is maybe

a sign of capitulation, but I think what it's telling the market is, maybe that quarter

was as good as it gets, and maybe these memory names are still cyclical.

I would agree, I mean, listen, this is a shift that's notable, because we already got

accustomed to the loss of momentum behind Nvidia and Broadcom, but now we have this whole

sub-segment of semiconductors that are starting to lag, exhibit downside leadership, and for

us it was Micron, initially that reaction turnings was underwhelming, it pivoted lower, it

has since broken down below a couple of short-term support levels, so to us it's a meaningful shift,

and it's something that's carried over to the broader space.

Those former leaders within the semiconductor sector, Taiwan's 70 for one, have broken

short-term support levels, and unfortunately it's something that could extend the correction

in the broader market, if we see that trend of relative outperformance that had been in place

for several months for the semiconductor's reverses, it doesn't look like it's going that way.

Sort of did feel like when every analyst came out and said this time is different, and this

sector is no longer cyclical, and it's going to be more even because of demand for memory,

et cetera long-term contract, the more they thought that this sector that has historically

been so cyclical is no longer cyclical, that's when you thought maybe we're seeing peak.

Well especially in memory, which is as cyclical as it gets, even if you've got high bandwidth

memory and whatnot, but I would get back to Taiwan's Emmy, and I think investors should be

picking their spots to be adding to this one. To me of all the names, this is the company that's

best positioned, they are white labeling for sovereignties for some of the biggest name players,

and obviously they are at the front edge of a lot of the demand out there, it's not expensive.

I do think there are a couple of really important levels out there.

280 is a level where I think you might be able to get a little something more back into the portfolio,

but I do think this is a place where you want to be looking for opportunities.

I can't say the same in memory right now.

That's some H and Katie can speak to this. It's been in this very steep uptrend since

low in April of last year that I think we've broken now. Now I think there's the hope that maybe

we trade back up and retest that uptrend line and then see what happens if and when.

But you point about memory real quick and Tim talks about this, it's important.

Historically in this space, when they're their cheapest in terms of valuation,

is not when you want to be buying these names. It's typically the wrong end of the cycle and

micron in terms of price to earnings is probably as cheap as it gets. So when I see people on Twitter

or people talking about how cheap micron is, yes it is, but historically that's a huge warning sign.

And the other point would be that they tend to all bottom around the same day.

So the likelihood that these support levels are highly relevant for the individual names is

actually really just not there. So instead of taking time, trying to like hone in on the key levels,

I think we really need to let the top down influence be there. Look at the S&P 500 and when we feel

the S&P 500 has that bottom in place, these are names that I would imagine people are going to go

right back to. But with the MACDs having rolled on the weekly charts, I think that'll take some time.

Maybe no coincidence. This is the same day. The semiconductor sort of decline, the same day that

there is an actual bid for bonds, which reverses a lot of the trend that we've been seeing.

Is that a coincidence? Is that not a coincidence in terms of what?

Wow. Well, look, right. So economic growth. Exactly. So if we want to oversimplify bonds to say,

if we really are having a growth scare out there, Treasury should see a flight to quality,

people should want to be buying bonds. Jerome Powell was out there today and I think he gave a lot

of confidence to the bond market that everyone who is heading up for possibly an emergency hike,

that the Fed right now is willing to say we just believe shocks are short-term phenomenons that don't

affect long-term dynamics. Although he did bring up the point that inflation is, we're at a five-year

run of higher inflation and that they are very worried about the psychology of inflation when it

becomes in bed and this goes all the way back to vulgar. I mean, this is what he was trying to

root out and why he was so aggressive and I think he was right. Anyway, so bonds rallying today

is good news also because it happened on a day when oil prices went higher. What we've been seeing

typically is that actually bonds have been a risk-off moment and we said, you know, kind of fresh levels

up in WTI at least in today and I do think this is a case where it's nice to see the bond market

performing. You were talking about correlations earlier on our 1230 phone call. Yeah, I mean,

so the correlations on the equity front go very high when the market goes lower. But what we've

seen that I think is more interesting is the relationship between bonds and stocks very simply

looking at the ratios, looking at TLT versus the S&P 500 or the AG ETF. These broad-based bond benchmarks

do show rotation that we feel is pretty meaningful. The ratios are getting above their 200-day

moving averages and this is unlike what we saw on 22. So if you believe it's a bear cycle,

this time I think treasuries and bonds should do better. Interesting. I mean, great day in the

bond market for sure, but you go back three years now. There's been no meaningful bounce in the TLT

at all. And if you look at it over long term, you'll see what I'm talking about. Yeah, we bounced

here and there, but here we are in the mid 86, 87 at 82 and a half level. I still think it's tested

at some point, which probably correlates to 10-year yields somewhere north of 4.6 percent, which

will not be good because they're not going higher because the economy is getting stronger. What is

the scenario in which yields go to 4.6? I think the continued move in the energy market. I think the

move today in the bond market was a flight to perceived quality, which I sort of understand or

a certain extent. I think the global debt problem is, in fact, the problem. Global yields continue

to go higher. I mean, there are a lot of scenarios where yields can go higher, not based on what's

going on in the economy here. The global yields is a certainty. I mean, they will go higher.

They will go higher, but I think on a relative basis, Treasury still are the safe haven

investors should want to go for. So at a time when I don't think equities are priced for

a growth pullback. And in fact, if you look at the S&P and the valuation here on a four basis,

at least at the current EPS, and we'll see what we hear coming out of Q1, but at current EPS

projections, we're trading it kind of 19 times, which is in line with a 10-year average. And I

don't think terribly scary. I still don't think equities are priced for growth. If you are worried

about growth, if you're worried about growth or a growth fear, then I think Treasuries will

actually resume that safe haven. I know there's been some questions about policy and DC and,

you know, the U.S. and they're buying Treasuries.

For more on the market's wild swings, let's bring Anjulean Emanuel, Evercore ISI,

Senior Managing Director Julian, great to have you with us.

Great to be here. Where are we in the sell-off in your view?

We think we're getting towards an inflection point where we would want to commit capital here.

I think first off, we have to make this plain. The bullish case for stocks lies solely on getting

the oil price down. Okay? I'm not going to know comment on how it happens, whatever confluence

of events, and clearly the fact that we have a deadline of next Monday for next inflection

in the war is weighing on it. But for us, if you're able to do that, basically what you're left with

is the fact that we've just been talking about it, bonds are range bound, yields are relatively

tame, credit has been stressed, but by no means stressed to the point where a major growth scare

is being priced. The U.S. dollar has been very tame, and earnings are going to be double digits,

and we're below consensus at 11 percent, and that has historically been 10 of 11 years

in the last 30 years, a positive for the stock market. I'll play the devil's advocate,

because why not? Five weeks now I think into this war, but the things that were sort of

concerning were predated what was going on now in the Middle East. Credit problems, private equity

stuff, a labor market that was seemingly rolling over a little bit, concerns about valuations,

is the AI trade long in the tooth. I agree with you, the energy prices, cascade lower, you'll

get a couple of day events to the upside, but the problems that existed have not gone away.

So, and you would think that basically where the problems were prior, and again,

the majority of it in high tech, high yield credit, alternative asset managers,

and obviously software in general, all of those have really been not as much a casualty at all

in the last several weeks, even as the rest of the market has sold off. And in fact,

the alternative asset managers have traded very, very well. And to us, that's information

that there may be concerns around AI, and frankly, when we think about the CAPEX being spent,

we'd rather there be concerns as opposed to a sign of greater complacency if everyone just says,

okay, it's fine, but for us, that's pretty much discounted in the price right now.

Julie, and I'm not asking you to play stockpicker, but play strategist as you do every day,

and you play it well. Dogs of war stocks, this is in your research, I've read it, I mean,

whether it's Nvidia, the biggest names, and yet I could look at Meta, which is annualized at about

six and a half percent over the last five years. I could look at, or at least four and a half years,

and I cherry pick on a top to kind of draw it in here, but Microsoft over five years, we're talking

about an eight percent annualized. I mean, is it time for people to get back? Because this is the

question everybody wants to know, so talk about them as a group, you don't have to dive into the

bottom ups. Sure, we think it is. There is this, the names that you mentioned are trading at

valuations below their pandemic trust. The last war we successfully fought, and for the most part,

they have very visible earnings streams, and of course, there will be those concerns around AI

and CapEx, but these are the names that if the economy slows down, you're still going to get the

earnings at a price that's very attractive, and when we look at the NASDAQ 100 in general,

the PE of that index is trading at a relative low versus the S&P 500, going back to the pandemic,

we think it's time to dip a toe into large CapTech. You think that we're going to test 6150?

It's entirely possible. Look, but again, to us, this would not be, when you look at all the

hedging that's gone on in the market, and I think part of the reason that the sell off until the

last couple of days has essentially been slow-motion is because the level of hedging in stocks and

credit, and then last week bonds and gold, interestingly enough, and bullish oil in aggregate is

something we've never seen in our career, and so ultimately, if we get that kind of downside test,

which again, it's only a few percentage away, and in a VIX trading 30, it almost be sort of

irrational to say that it's not a possibility. It's a buying opportunity, in our view, particularly

since the imperative of making sure that oil comes in because another 30 to 45 days, and you will

do lasting damage to the economy and the markets. Julian, great to see you. Thank you very much

for coming by. Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI. Are you looking around at these mags of a names?

Because the flip side to the cat-backs is that they've got that cushion in theory, and if things get

real bad, they could just pull back on cat-backs and have that sort of cash cushion.

Well, Mark Zuckerberg's ridden the taco truck, too. I mean, they definitely dialed it back if they

need to, and I think he also cares about his valuation. So, yeah, I think I can feel very comfortable

with Meta. I think that the harder kind of call is Microsoft. The one thing that worries me about

these markets is we're only on the S&P 3 percent, 3 percent north of where we were pre-liberation

days. So, go back to March of 25 with a very wild ride in all kinds of directions in between.

And I worry that the psychology of the market has changed a little bit here, and it will be

tougher to overcome that. It doesn't mean it can't be. Sixteen, there were levels thrown out,

there were names, it's stock names thrown out, so take your pick.

Well, I mean, listen, that's a level that 61.50 areas, or as is widened out to 61.30, which

was a former resistance level. It's very much a support level. So, that would be, I think, great

to see the market stop there, but it's not that far away right now, and the momentum really

is still pretty bad. So, I'm not convinced that that's going to be the magic number necessarily.

I think we just want more weight of the evidence in terms of a momentum shift,

stabilization, that kind of support discovery, not just to level it, to refer to,

even met a fresh breakdown, right? So, these breakdowns, as much as you might feel like

something's oversold, it's usually not the best time to add exposure.

Katie's indefinitely. What is that mountain with the...

Matthew, and Carthian. Matthew, and Rushmore.

Rushmore, I don't know. Carthian.

Carthian.

Carthian.

Carthian.

Carthian.

Carthian.

Carthian.

Carthian.

Carthian.

Carthian.

Carthian.

Carthian.

Carthian.

Carthian.

Carthian.

Carthian.

Carthian.

No, I missed the fruit.

Oh, of the queues?

Oh, yeah, they'll head fruit with that.

Yeah, yeah, they'll go on.

Maybe add any kind of fruit.

What kind of fruit?

Apples or peaches or a little fruit.

Okay.

All right.

Just a nice of him, healthy.

What did that chart say?

It's 26% of all...

Think about this for some...

The market said what?

9% the S&P 500 year off the all-time highs.

26% of all stocks are 40% lower than their 52 week.

They're all-time highs.

Now, think about that for a second.

You'd be like,

how is it possible that the broader market is just down

9% when 21 and four stocks are down that much?

So, one of two things are going to happen.

The market's going to catch up,

which I think might happen,

or these stocks are just completely oversold.

By the way, the fruit chart, that's completely...

That's a, you know, cards prolific,

but the chart show the queues,

and that he believes that it's going to drop.

And the fruit is, you know, at the end of the little line,

and then the next picture,

the fruit is down on the bottom,

so that was the implication anyway.

Well, and Katie, because you're here,

I wanted to ask you about the VIX, too,

because, again, all the things you're saying,

like, you're not ready to fade.

One of the great bands of all time, guys, the clash.

Should I stay or should I go?

I mean, what do you do with volatility here?

Do you want to buy it?

Yeah.

Or are you a seller?

I'm sort of neutral on volatility.

And I never recommend to clients to buy it,

because I think it's very difficult to make that timing just right.

But if we look at the breast,

see what you quoted, guy,

was it sort of a breast statistic.

The percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving averages

is far from where it was in April of last year.

So not to sound overly bearish for just that measure,

but I think it dipped down to around 15% of the S&P 500

and now are 40 plus percent.

So it could still have more room to the downside.

It doesn't mean we won't have an interruption

with some kind of relief rally.

But...

Meantime, the ongoing Iranian conflict

continuing to hit the oil market.

Subbti settling above $100 for the first time.

Since 2022, Brent also higher.

And aluminum prices coming into focus

as Iran's attack on smelters in the Middle East,

drove up prices.

Pippa Stevens has more on the commodity moves.

Pippa.

Hey, Melissa.

So WTI and Brent are both at more than 50% for the month

with Brent on track for its largest monthly gain

going back to the contract's inception in 1988.

And focus is now shifting to another straight

after the Houthis attacked Israel.

With fears, the Iran-backed group

could hit tankers transiting the Bob Elman-Dab straight

at the south of the Red Sea.

Another choke point for global energy markets.

The Houthis have targeted vessels in the waterway before,

including last year.

But this time, the backdrop is fundamentally different.

With the straight up Hormuz closed, Saudi Arabia

is now exporting about 4.3 million barrels per day

out of Yanbu on the Red Sea,

up from 750,000 at the start of the year,

which has helped offset some of the lost barrels from Hormuz.

Thousands of tankers are now positioned in the Red Sea

to pick up those Saudi barrels.

And if they can't exit the Bob Elman-Dab

and instead have to go north,

it effectively doubles sailing time to Asia.

Finally, aluminum jumping today

and on track for its best month in two years.

After Iran targeted two smelters, one in Bahrain

and the other in UAE,

the Middle East is roughly 9% of global primary production.

The majority, which is exported,

including to the U.S.

Melissa.

Pippa, thanks.

Pippa Stevens, the oil and commodity picture.

I mean, the entrance of the Houthis

into this war really makes it more likely,

perhaps, that the world will be protracted

and therefore there'll be more hits

potentially to infrastructure,

which is more lasting damage.

Unfortunately, yes, you're 100% right,

but let's look at it through the lens of the stock market.

And today, the XLE made an all-time high today

closed lower on the day.

That's something to watch.

Katie pointed out earlier today,

OIH made a multi-year high closed lower on the day.

So that, I think, is telling you something now.

What it means for the broader market,

maybe there's something we should be paying more attention

into potential rotation out of energy.

And the other things, I will be crystal clear

and I think Tim would agree with me.

I don't think the energy trade is over,

but you could see a rug pull over the next couple days.

What do you think, Katie?

Yeah, I would agree.

I mean, you look at crude oil,

the MACD by signal and the monthly chart was in February.

And that's brand new, really,

and it preceded the war.

So to me, there's something bigger going on.

It's part of a commodity bull cycle.

So I think energy will continue to benefit,

but right now, it does feel a little tired short term.

Yeah, Alcoa, remember my girl from Days Gone By.

Days of U.S. has doubled over the last few months.

And I think, at this point, this is a case of a shock

that I'm not sure it's sustainable.

I'd rather own the inputs into it,

like a Rio Tinto or a BHP.

Before I know we gotta get to break, I apologize.

Oh, we do.

The clash, the only bend that matters self-proclaimed.

I went to see the Hu in 1982 with Chase Stadium.

The clash was like a warm-up bend.

They got booed off the stage.

No, they didn't get booed off the stage.

David Johansson.

And the clash.

No, that's not what Tim wants.

You know what?

I think, again, you're transferring.

Like, I love the Hu, but you have to love the clash.

No, you're saying this backstage.

I'm looking really clear.

We will.

Yeah, in the break, I'm sure.

Coming up, thanks, catching a bounce,

but still deep in the red for the year.

The next move in money centers in Y Wall Street

is getting bullish on one being down credit card stock.

Plus, Nike running downhill.

How are traders or handling the tripped up athletic wear

maker ahead of earnings tomorrow?

Could we see a swoosh after the report?

Wish direction.

Don't go anywhere fast when he's back in two.

Welcome back to Fast Money Financial.

Trying to bounce back after last week's losses,

but the XLF so well below its 200-day moving average.

The ETF now down nearly 12% this year.

But well-spargosing some upside for at least one name in the space.

Reiterating it's by rating an American Express

with a $425 price target saying that AXP's

more affluent customer base should be in good shape

and that fear of AI job replacement

of the white collar workers is overdone.

What do you think of that call?

I understand the plan a little stock market here.

I admire the call because the stock has gotten basically beat up

with some of the other members of the space.

I don't necessarily believe it.

I get the affluent customer.

I get they should be sort of protected

from or insulated from what's going on.

I'm not sure though that's the case.

And if credit defaults start to pick up,

at some point it's going to make it way in the higher end.

And I think American Express has been sniffing that out for a while.

How do the charts look?

You know, we're getting close, I think.

It's oversold and it's into support

from that cloud model that I use.

But no shift yet, no momentum discovery.

So to me, it's early.

I think you're trying to buy selective weakness and bags

assuming we're not going into this epic growth scare.

I mean, I think there's been a lot of concern on the credit.

Citibank's another example.

We were talking about this, you know,

made me this regional bank there thinking about picking up on Friday.

I just think people are looking for reasons to sell.

By the way, I referenced this period

of what Meta had done over the last four and a half years

on an annualized basis.

Citibank's out-perform Meta over the last four and a half years.

And it tells you where I also just think,

you know, financials as a sector

were so underweight for years after the financial crisis.

I think they've gotten back to a market waiting.

And in fact, I think they were overweight.

I think there's a lot of people feeling some pain

on some banks right here.

I think you need to hang in there.

But in terms of a call like an American Express versus a call like city,

city obviously benefits from a lot of the volatility as well.

They will benefit from a lot of the big IPOs coming out this year.

They'll benefit from any M&A that's going on

to offset maybe some credit weakness they may have in their portfolios.

I think American Express, even before this war,

was under a lot of pressure, the Katie references.

And I believe this is, you know,

part of the cycle of their business

and the greater concerns around private credit,

which equals job loss.

I don't think we know.

And I think it's a company that long term has found.

Remember when we said like cashless payments,

we're going to, you know,

basically be the end or after COVID.

People are so worried about taking out a card.

MasterCard, MX and AXP have continued to reinvent themselves.

And I think they continue to.

City is a relative value game, I think.

Valuation, it's still a lot cheaper than its peers.

They report I think on April 14th.

So that's coming to a theater near you.

Jane Frazier has done a great job.

The turnaround story is intact.

To me, if you want to be long,

a banky, long city.

There's a lot more fast-funded to come.

Here's what's coming up next.

Running on empty.

Nike stocks sliding more than 30% since August.

As the retailer laces up and looks for a rebound,

what to expect out of those numbers.

Next, plus AI and the future of Pharma.

How Eli Lilly's latest deal could bring AI-developed drugs to market.

And whether there's more M&A action in store for the space,

you're watching Fast Money.

Lie from the Nasdaq Market site in Times Square.

We're back right after this.

Welcome back to Fast Money.

Nike set to report earnings tomorrow.

After the bell, the stock will again today

training on more than eight year lows.

It is down 22% just since its last earnings report.

Is there anything the company can say tomorrow

to turn things around?

Can a kitchen sink even help you think, Tim?

No, I don't think we want a kitchen sink anymore.

I think they need to point out the turnaround that's already happened.

I'm going to quietly say, I think this is interesting.

I think Elliott Hill has overcome North America.

There is innovation.

They're pushing the whole running shoes.

There's guys out there every day in those things running.

He's like Forest Gump.

And I do think you've got a dynamic here,

where there's so much negativity around.

The inventories are clean.

I think you look at, and it's 1.6, 1.7 times price to sales.

This is the kind of a company that I think you buy it.

And I think as BK once said, you put this one in the top drawer.

I think this is one that you actually...

I'm not telling you it can't go lower.

I think the macro could get worse.

But the big issues that they have to still solve are China and digital.

And I'm not sure there's a median to answer.

But North America was up 9% last quarter.

China is 15% of revenues.

And it was down 16% last quarter.

And what's happening in China in terms of oil prices?

Terrible.

Hi.

We know a lot about what the streets expecting.

I mean, gross margins supposed to be about 40%,

which would be about 180 basis point decline year over year.

So that's factored in.

I mean, there's a lot of bad news in the stock.

And I think the last couple quarters,

we've had analysts come out and say that that's the worst is over.

And the stock is ready to inflect.

And for a week or so, that appears to be the case.

Until again, it's not.

Competition is fierce, valuation is okay.

I don't know if they're going to kitchen sink it.

But I think there's further decline here in Nike.

What do the charts say?

It's really interesting.

So we've seen a downtrend in Nike for several years now.

And the last down draft was really strong.

More than 25% since the February high.

So when you come into an earnings report, this oversold,

it's more likely that you will see a positive reaction.

Nike does have support around 50.

That goes all the way back to 2014.

And it does have the tendency to gap up or down around earnings.

Coming up another potential use case for GLP1.

The additional opportunity, Eli Lilly,

is investigating for its weight loss drugs.

And how could impact the farmer's space?

The Zooho's Jared Holes will join us next

to dig into it all back and to.

Mr. Moment of Fast catches any time on the go.

Follow the Fast Money Podcast.

We're back right after this.

Welcome back to Fast Money Stock, starting the week off.

With an intraday reversal finishing well off their highs,

as oil ticked higher the Dow, managing to end with a small gain,

the S&P on a three-day losing streak.

Now less than one percent away from correction territory.

And the Nas Act dropping nearly three quarters of a percent today,

now down more than 13 percent from highs.

All three tracking for their worst quarters since 2022.

WTI crewed meantime rising more than three percent,

settling above $100 a barrel for the first time since July of 2022.

Well, Eli Lilly rising a percent today,

the Zepound Maker announcing over the weekend,

a $2.75 billion AI drug development deal with Hong Kong-based

En silico medicine aimed to accelerate Lilly's R&D efforts

across multiple therapeutic areas.

And more signs of the growing use cases for weight loss drugs,

biotech startup baseline therapeutics,

the latest company testing its GLP1 for substance abuse disorders.

It follows a similar route by Lilly in studying obesity drugs

to treat addictions.

For more on all this, Mizuhau Health Care Specialist,

Jared Holes joins us here on set.

Jared, great to have you with us.

Thanks a lot.

How will this change the En silico deal?

How will that change the costs for Lilly?

Don't exactly know.

I think what it's going to do is it broadens the pipeline for sure.

En silico is working on a bunch of assets over in Hong Kong

and probably globally as time goes on.

I think it gives Eli Lilly more shots on goal

and further drug development that's going to help them

make five, 10 years down the road.

They don't need anything today, obviously.

So I think this is a longer term strategy

to diversify and using their assets to get there.

Meantime, in terms of testing,

baseline testing, the GLP1 for substance abuse.

I mean, we know this was a potential use case.

Is this changed?

Does it move the needle at all when it comes to your perception

of what the tam could be?

I don't think so.

I mean, if anything, there's upside.

We've really only spoken about it as far as weight loss is concerned

in terms of the numbers that have been built out.

There's been a lot of talk lately about the duration of therapy,

patients going off and back on.

I think that's something that I've been doing more work around

trying to figure out from a modeling standpoint

how that's going to look like.

This is all additive, I think.

There's no question that the drugs are going to work

to some degree.

It's just going to be how much or how beneficial they are.

We know it works for food.

I think it works for anything.

Alcohol smoking.

Anything where there's intake,

I think there's definitely going to be an effect.

It's just going to be how significant.

What kind of valuation cushion, if any, does Lily have?

If competition would meaningfully come in

and if pricing starts to fall away?

I mean, it trades at three turns their competitors.

Yeah, I don't think much.

It just, I think the valuation cushion

is sort of, they need to continue to kick out new drugs

and get the street more excited than they already are.

But we've seen multiples go super high.

We've seen them go to levels that we never thought

are possible on the downside, Novonortis,

and a bunch of others, Pfizer at times, Bristol at times.

That's, I think, what they're most susceptible to

is that the street walks away from obesity

as this major catalyst, at least for some period of time.

We can, they can always come back.

But I don't really think they have that much cushion at all.

Or for you're expecting to be FDA approved

in April, April 10th, they think you said.

I think so, yeah.

Is that going to be a catalyst

or is it going to be like Novonortis

longer that's way lost pill?

Well, basically no effect to down.

Right. I mean, it's mind blowing.

This is probably the most under heralded,

amazing drug launch that we've ever seen.

I mean, close to half a million patients on the drug in three months.

Yet there's all this fanfare around Orpho.

I'm not saying that Orpho is not a good drug.

I think we all agree that we gov and Orpho are both very solid.

But for Novonort to get no credit and then thinking that

Lily's going to get a ton of credit,

I just think is a little bit contradictory.

Obviously, the halo effect around Lily has been

going on for quite some time in the opposite for Novon,

but it doesn't really make sense to me

that you're giving one company zero credit

and their launch has been excellent.

Yet we're all very hot and bothered over this Lily launch.

I like where you're going on that pair's trade.

I'm with you.

Let's talk about, again, oral will govy

and the broadening just of the category.

In other words, that really forget everything else.

I mean, that and we're still in the early rounds here.

Are you impressed?

Are you less impressed?

Did we price this in already?

Again, the stocks run into like,

there's been a very difficult run for the stock

after being a hero really until two months ago.

Yeah, I mean, the issue is their guidance assumes

that the drug does pretty well and still,

they're not going to grow the top line this year,

which is pretty incredible to think about

when Lily's growing north of 20% most likely

or 15 to 20%.

I think the launch has been great.

The stock has gotten no credit.

I think they have to, again, prove themselves

as time goes on that they have a stronger pipeline

that the pricing dynamic doesn't get worse.

That's been, I think, the biggest issue here

is that you went from 1200 per month to 149 for the oral.

But as time goes on as well as patients start

to take higher doses of oral wegovi,

the pricing is going to actually go up.

So hopefully that helps them in time.

I want to ask you about Merck,

because you had an interesting thought.

I mean, Merck has done a series of acquisitions

why spend on R&D?

And you point out that Ketruda,

it's, of course, its main drug

wasn't developed in house either.

So what's the point of even trying at this point?

Just use a dollar for something else

like continuing to buy things.

Yeah, I mean, it was a little bit of a hyperbolic comment,

but I think that the basis is

if you're going to spend 15 billion a year on R&D,

what you need, at some point I think you have to show something

that you've been able to, you know,

take that R&D spend and generated assets

that are commercialized.

Can't really remember the last time Merck

internally developed a blockbuster.

I mean, there is one.

I just can't think of it this very second.

And then now they're spending,

I think they've done five or six deals since 2022

that will definitely ease the burden of Ketruda.

But you have to start to question the R&D spend

if you're also going to go out and spend 25, 30 billion

on acquisitions, which is what they've done.

Jared, thank you for coming by.

Thank you.

Always good to see you too.

Jared Holtz of Ms.

Look at you.

Ketruda was a drug created by Orgonon.

Orgonon was bought by Shearing Plow,

which was bought by Merck.

That's Ketruda.

This was a, this drug was on the shelf,

a scientist saw it and said we should take a look at it.

That is an amazing story and you knew that.

No, I didn't, I mean, I knew that in the back of my head,

but Jared wrote that in his note.

Oh, good note by you, Jared.

Well done.

I wish I read your notes.

How did the charts look for any of these?

Well, I mean, naturally as a technician,

I go for the uptrendy stocks.

And that is Lily, that is Merck.

The momentum's still there longer term.

And Lily had the breakout in November.

And the breakout was me decisive.

So it puts you in the mode of buying into weakness,

even though I don't have any short term countertrend signals yet.

Coming up, charting Meta's sell off even with today's pop

shares are down more than 25% over the last two months.

And the social giant recover,

we are going into the charts to find out

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Welcome back to Fast Money.

Metta breaking a five-day losing streak, popping 2%

after Morgan Stanley reiterated its overweight call in the stock,

which shares are still down almost 19% since the start of the year.

And Katie, you don't see any reason to find any hope in you.

Again, my theme today is we're not there yet.

It's a long-term topping formation, unfortunately.

The head and shoulders top, we all know it.

It's a lower high effectively,

and then a breakdown below a neckline or a support level.

And that breakdown occurred a few weeks ago,

and we've seen very significant downsides follow through.

When you do see that immediate follow-through,

that tends to be also bearish,

and most recently broke some support at the November low.

So as you continue to see these support levels taken out,

that's a message from the market.

There is an additional support level around 500,

so we can watch to see if it holds there.

But until we see that momentum improve,

these are topping formations that kind of implications.

Unfortunately, for six, nine, even 12 months,

we're going to say, sorry, 775.

They lowered their price target,

so Carter Bracks and Worthy aforementioned from other shows.

He had a note out a couple weeks ago,

and he talked about breakdown in the stock.

The level that Katie just talked about is the April low from last year,

which I think it closed around $500.

They don't report until the end of April,

I think on a benign to negative tape,

it trades down to that 500 level.

On a trailing basis,

this company is trading around 16 times.

I mean, it's very cheap,

as it relates to both the litigation and the overhang

and the monetization of the age group that was in question

in the lawsuit, not a big deal.

If you get to a place where there have to be product enhancements,

for all we know, this could be something

that's ultimately they turn a negative into a positive right now.

I think that headline is overdone.

It happened on a day when the markets

were under a lot of different pressure.

The chart may not be good,

but I think if we're talking about the tobacco moment for Google and Meta,

I don't think so.

And I think as we talked about earlier also,

I mean, the capex dynamic is fluid.

They don't have to chase anything.

Right, they can dial it back any time,

and that would be perceived positively.

Very, very.

Yeah, you think so?

Proceed positively for the names,

but what does that mean for the broader market?

If names like Facebook and the other names that have been spending hand over

fists, all of a sudden decide you know we're going to ratchet back capex,

a lot of the broader market has been built on the thought that there's

capex is somehow etched in stone.

There's a sanctity to capex.

You think?

Well, I mean, I believe that.

I believe that.

But it doesn't show the sanctity.

I mean, video shows that they're peeling it back.

And I think all the news flow that we've had,

and whether it's AMD, I mean, the in-house CPUs,

the white label CPUs,

there's a, anyway, I feel as if the market has gotten some sense that some of

this growth is should be tempered.

And I think, I think, medic and relative.

All right.

Coming up, a K-pop collaboration,

how McDonald's could capitalize on the popularity of K-pop demon hunters,

and why analysts say it could be a golden opportunity.

More fast money and two.

K-pop.

Welcome back to Fast Money.

McDonald's is betting on the success of Netflix's K-pop demon hunters

with new themed meals hitting restaurants tomorrow.

The menu includes Korean-inspired breakfast, lunch,

and dinner combos based on characters from the animated film.

Plus an olicart,

Dirty McFlurry featuring very popping pearls.

McDonald's shares basically flat this year,

trading almost 10% below the 52-week high,

hit in February, arguably with rising gas prices.

This will hit the demographic that McDonald's relies on the most.

You should be calling on Guy because he's a huge K-pop fan.

Oh, I know.

And he has that McFlurry every turn.

No one markets better than McDonald's.

No one puts a meal together at McDonald's.

No one gets through difficult times.

And actually, the headwinds around their core consumer,

I do think this is overdone.

I think this is a company that you should feel good about owning

in a difficult environment.

Go back eight years of this uptrend,

and we have seen moves of this magnitude of the downside,

at least 10 different times over those eight years.

They report in April,

valuations always a little stretched,

but I don't think it's ridiculous.

I don't know what Tim is talking about.

Would you say about my K-pop infatuation?

Yeah, you come on.

No, I wouldn't admit it if I knew what it was,

but I don't know.

You were cutting your hand like that guy.

Which guy?

That guy was on the side of the happy meal.

That guy, the guy on the left.

I was a surrogate.

You know, long-term study uptrend,

just like Guy says, it's a secular uptrend.

So maybe not the best entry,

but to me, it's a good long-term hold.

We haven't had a taste test in a very long time.

No, we gotta do that.

Do that in fast, one-a-days of your.

Not a bad, yeah.

And I feel like it's a candidate.

Let's do it, let's do it.

What's the purpose of this?

Purple dip in sauce?

What is a purple dipping sauce?

We're gonna find out.

It's a sauce that is purple, Tim.

But what could flavor could it possibly be?

That would be it all, appetizing.

But that would be a lavender base.

Something to find out.

Wouldn't it?

Let's to be continued.

The final trade.

Final trade time, Tim.

Just what pharmacist's breaking out after a couple of years,

it's Tim's pharma.

PFE, stay there.

Katie Softon.

I'm gonna go with the new ETF.

So M-O-O, it's agribusiness,

and it looks very different from the S&P.

Thanks for being here, Katie.

Big fast money fans of the Frey family is here in studio.

Yeah, come on.

The A&MyClam.

That's like an illegal mine.

Thanks for watching Fast Mad Money Starts right now.

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