September 4 Episode

0:00Welcome to Money Talks. My name is Mike Campbell. If you're a first-time listener, welcome. And if you're a regular listener and we have thousands, tens of thousands of those, please know we really appreciate your support. But we've got a great show planned for you. It's a long weekend I know. But we got Robert Bryce with you, Power Hungry. He's one of the foremost, I think, communicators about what's going on in energy. He's got a couple of interesting takes. What's really hot and it's not oil, that's not his answer. But the other thing he'll talk about is the opposition to artificial intelligence, the data centers and how it's building. I think that's a key subject going forward. We're also going to talk with a farmer, a beef farmer, talking about the high prices of beef. Rob Carlyon is going to join me. He's worked with the farmer. He's been doing it over 35 years. I think you're going to find that fascinating. If you wonder, why are beef prices up? Well, I'll tell you, the farmers aren't the ones making the money. So stay

1:00tuned for that. I've also got Victor Adair with me so much happening, especially as we get ready to kick off what's going on as we get on a labor day as he said all along. That's when the action really starts. I've got Rob levy with me. We've got that big business summit coming up mid-month. Well, we've got one of the premier economists in the country saying, Avery Seanfield, C.I.B. See, this is what we get wrong about that kind of thing. Speaking of getting it wrong, wait to hear my goofy award. I can't believe it. This really pushed a button with me when I hear a specific statistic reported incorrectly leaving the false impression. Anyways, we've got more with that. Plus, we've got Aussie Jurick. But first, as university and college students head back to campus this week, here's a question we almost never ask, how many of them will still be working in Canada a few years from now? I mean, I know one who won't. He's already part of the hundred and nearly hundred and twenty-one thousand Canadian citizens and permanent residents who left in 225. That was a record. But maybe we're going to break that record because in the first quarter

2:04of 226 another 30,000 plus the highest first quarter total on the books. I mean, you may know someone who went. I do. One of my sons works in finance in Hong Kong. This is not a random shuffle of people. Statscan and later reporting shows that the outflow was concentrated among younger working age adults. About half of last year's immigrants were 25 to 45 and they are more educated than average in science, finance, engineering, health, tech, often higher income, often in couples. The OECD figures roughly half go to the US with Ontario and BC sending the most. And those of, you know, but why should anyone care is the point? Because we know those numbers. Because politicians clearly don't, they don't care. They almost never mention this, but they should. Young skilled workers and entrepreneurs of the people who pay the most tax later start the companies that hire everyone else, keep productivity from stalling. And when they leave in their 20s and 30s, Canada keeps the bill for

3:07educating them while loses decades of earnings and capital gains and head office jobs. Now, I know older Canadians may shrug, but they shouldn't. That exodus is a permanent hit to growth and to the tax base that's supposed to pay for our old age security, our health care and the interest on the debt that we ran up. Meanwhile, politicians stay quiet and I think it's because the numbers are inconvenient. Talk about young people leaving for higher pay, cheaper housing, well then you have to talk about taxes, housing, regulation. I mean, it's easier just to sell immigration targets or build Canada strong rather than admit that people already trained here are voting with their feet. I mean, look at the University of Waterloo as an example. Most graduates do stay in Canada. That's true, but as TD economics puts it in a report entitled Silent Brain Drain, Waterloo's highest performers are the most likely to leave at roughly the rate, you know, at twice the rate of lower rank students. And they've got the math, the computer skills engineering grads, less likely to stay than STEM grads. Then there's the entrepreneurial file back to,

4:13you know, who's starting the businesses. Jesse Rogers, Dominion List keeps track of 517 companies that are founded by Canadians but don't operate in Canada. And 56% of those more than a billion dollars. But the point is this, talent's not the problem. The problem is so many of the vehicles for those talented people are incorporated and grown in the US. Canada keeps the training costs but expires a chunk of the payoff. So here's the question I have been dying to ask and hopefully get an answer from the Canadian public. I mean, you and I may be concerned about 121,000 people leaving in a year or 30,000 leaving, you know, in a single quarter. But I'm wondering what will it take to get national attention? How high do those numbers have to go before the country and all of us collectively start calling it a very serious problem? Hey, just a reminder, by the way, you can sign up for five minutes with Mike by going to

5:13micsmoneytalks.ca. It's absolutely free. So is Money Talks Tweets and so is Michael Campbell's Money Talks on Facebook. I hope you take the time to join us. Hey, just another thing to do on this long weekend. Stay with us. I got Robert Bryce. I'm extremely pleased to welcome back to the show Robert Bryce. And before I go further, I want you to know you can find him on substack robbertbrice.substack.com and Bryce has built BRYCE. I'll let you know that again. We'll put it up on our social media. Why? Because it's one of the most red, you know, substack pieces because of his expertise in energy. He travels the world. He's got lots to say about what goes on in the world, but we're really pleased to have him with us again. Thanks, Robert, for taking the time. Always to be happy with you, always happy to be with you, Michael. I'm going to ask that big broad question first and just ask you to give a comment on oil today, oil prices today. Well, you know, they're up, of course, because

6:15of the Iran War. And I follow the oil market. But one of the things that is, I think, being overlooked in all of this, the conflict and, you know, who knows when it's going to end. There's a lot of focus on oil for good reason. But the overlooked part of what this energy disruption is causing is in the global natural gas markets. So just yesterday, I looked at them TTF, which is the European benchmark for natural gas is over $23. The same is true for JKM, the Japan Korea marker. That's LNG going into Asia. It's over $23. Before the war, they were at $10. So we've had a more than doubling in the in the price of LNG delivered globally since the start of the war. And this is ruinous for Europe and ruinous for Asia. And meanwhile, the US has barely been affected. Henry Hub, which is our benchmark here in the US, still under $3. A huge advantage, whether it's Canada or the US,

7:17when you have that kind of a differentiation. An enormous advantage. Yeah. I mean, I just look at all the stories coming out of Europe, by the way. I mean, the bombing of the refineries in Russia or the drone attacks on the refineries in Russia, you know, diesel prices. They're just so vulnerable in Europe because they don't have self-sufficiency in oil or sorry, in energy and natural gas, as you're saying, where what an advantage if we ever took advantage of it in Canada and the US though. Well, I mean, Canada is still in the US are still, you know, relatively well positioned, the US in particular. And, you know, I think, you know, it's unfortunate this conflict, deeply unfortunate and inexplicable really with the Trump administration is doing with Canada in terms of the trade issues. But, you know, we are partners, and we need to deepen the energy relationship in North America. And I think that will happen eventually. But, yes, I mean, the, you know, I've thought about this a little bit. If the

8:19president's Trump's aim with the Iran war and who knows, you know, the rationale behind this and what, you know, how soon it might end or, you know, whatever, we've heard a lot of explanations. But if he wanted to really put the screws to Asian consumers, Asian buyers and European consumers, he's sure doing it by this disruption with the natural gas market. Well, let me come back to something else. President Trump was saying recently, and he's talking about obviously, as you say, I did a little something just a, just a quip that we just got our latest GDP numbers. But one of the things in the nominal GDP is that the price increases in oil, you know, have been very beneficial. And I said, maybe we should send a thank you note to President Trump because it's his action, his choice to go into Iran that has boosted these prices. Hence, boosted the profits of companies like Exxon Mobile, a mobile, and Chevron, you know, I'm just smiling at that because then the president turns around and complains about their

9:19excess profits. And says, oh, we should turn these back to consumers or something, which I wrote about that. In fact, on my substack, Robert Price dot substack dot com, you know, that he sounded, you know, that that President Trump is sounding like Bernie Sanders saying that the oil companies are making too much money. And I did just look up to TT up. This was yesterday. That again, is the European trading hub for natural gas, $24.60 per million B.T.U.'s JKM for Asia, $23.61 Henry Hub, $2.98 per million B.T.U. So, you know, I was in Saigon, I was in Vietnam in Singapore about two months ago. And these countries were importing, and Singapore in particular, still importing a lot of LNG. This is causing massive increases in their electricity prices, because they're so dependent on LNG for gas, for power generation. And in Vietnam, the Vietnamese government essentially has said, well, you know, this spike in prices means we're going to go back to burning more coal. So, you know, countries are going to do what is in their self-interest. And

10:24this, this, what we're seeing here, both in Europe where there were Germany definitely is burning more coal. Asia is going to burn more coal. This, the impact of these commodity price increases, including natural gas and in particular, diesel fuel, they're going to have a long-term effects, I believe, in the global market. I'll come back to Vietnam just in a second, because you've done a brand new study, brand new documentary called Vietnam Pugs in. So, I want to get some details on that. I mean, Asian markets are very important, you know, Canadian energy also, you know, there were well behind what we could have developed there, but it's starting to happen, especially on the LNG front. But I'll come back just first of the impact of a statement like President Trump's that the major oil companies are making too much money. I just don't, you know, do you think that has any impact at all on those companies in terms of where they're going to develop, or they just go, oh, that's the president, what the heck? I think it's maybe the latter, Mike, I mean, you know,

11:25I don't have any special insight into what goes on in the side of the boardroom at Chevron or Exxon Mobile, but I think they, you know, those executives and the people generally listen to Trump and they go, oh, yeah, well, there he goes again. And because I just think increasingly, many of the things, I have many, many criticisms of President Trump and what he has done on the tariffs on how he's handling Canada, you know, his attitude toward Canada, the name calling, you know, and some of these other things. But, you know, in general, I think his, and broadly, his stance on energy has been very positive, including the announcement last week by the US Army to select five microreactors for development by the army on military bases. That's a big step forward for the US nuclear program. So I have a lot of things that I think, you know, that he's doing right with regard to energy, but I, you know, I have many, many criticisms of what's happening. And I think that, you know, the Republicans are very worried about the midterms in what's going to happen in November. Well, and also, you know, the announcement about Venezuela oil because it

12:30would be a competitor, you know, it's not a direct competitor. I mean, I think there's some details. It's not so simple as saying we can refine, even if it's heavy oil, which it is, you know, and Canadian heavy oil. It's not quite the same thing. And there's, there's details, but just, I wonder how much of what he says and things like that is also directed toward China. I mean, one of the things I've told our audience is that don't underestimate that China is a no-fly zone for the US and both the Democrats and Republicans. They haven't softened their view the way Canada has. They haven't, you know, they still have restrictions on EVs, you know, strict restrictions on EVs and Canada, you know, hasn't on Chinese EVs. So I just wonder when I look at things like that, especially on the energy side, as you said, big impact on Asia. What's been going on, you know, if China isn't sort of front and center in somebody's strategic whiteboard, you know, in the US, in Washington? Well, it has to be, and will always be, because China is such a big player in so many different realms of the, you know, the global economy. The one that I keep coming back to,

13:34Mike, and I've written about it now. I started writing about rare earth elements, more than 16 years ago, as China's monopoly over really about 33 strategic elements and antimony. All of the rare earths, a preziodimium, neo-demium, a, a, a, a, gadolinium, you know, the list goes on, and this has been a strategic decision by the Chinese government. And, you know, it's not, it's not just on the rare, relatively rare elements or the, you know, the strategic elements in the, in the, in the Lengthenites, all of the global copper capacity, copper refining, smelting capacity that's been added since 2000 has been built in China. And so you look out at the next couple of decades about where these strategic metals are going to be sourced. China has a, I'm not going to say a monopoly, but in many cases, today they have close to monopolies on many of these elements. And the US, and this is one reason why I'm so perturbed about Trump's attitude towards Canada. We need a very close relationship with Canada,

14:38Australia, Japan, South Korea, to create a kind of counterbalance to China's dominance in these strategic elements. And by, you know, saying all these nasty and stupid things, frankly, stupid things about Canada, you know, he's just alienated, you know, one of our strategic allies on particularly industrial metals and industrial elements. It just makes no sense whatsoever. I'm with you completely on that. I mean, it makes no sense. There was an opportunity. Hopefully it'll still develop if you know what I mean. I hopefully things can change. And we've seen a lot of theater as we do, you know, in politics. So I'm with you. It would be wonderful to see that change. Let me ask you a question, Michael, because I'm just watching what's going on. I mean, it seems to me that this, you know, I've been watching politics for a while, right? I'm an old guy. I'm 66. But this Trump in his attitude just seems like this is the gift for Carney. I mean, just to give him or him to be able to say, well, we're standing up to the Americans and, you know,

15:39prison, you know, forget those guys. And you know, we're going to stand together as Canadians. And then he uses French and isn't, you know, his announcement is like, this is kind of a gift-wrapped political present for Carney as far as I can tell. Yeah. And then Poles suggest that, by the way, you know, the polls up to this point, up to say a month ago, we're saying that cost of living was the biggest issue in Quebec, for example. Yeah. Then Trump comes out, they say even though French language is not on the negotiating table, they came and clarified that doesn't matter, you know, the so-called attack on sovereignty. Well, Trump moved to the top issue again before the by-election, you know, that we took place earlier this week. So he was a top issue. It's hard to be on the other side if you're on opposition because people agree. Like Trump has made comments, they're insulting, they're disrespectful, they're counterproductive. So I can't, no one's in opposition to saying that, but it's the, the premium, you know, it's a cat bird seat for the prime

16:39minister. And it worked very successfully rescuing the liberals from negative poll coming into the last election under Justin Trudeau. Make the change. Trump, you know, volunteers all of this. And we, you know, and it rides to an election victory. So you're absolutely right. Yeah. It plays well politically in this country. And along the way, he pretty much, you know, just torpedoes Pierre Polier, which was his, would it, would it been his natural ally? I mean, I see the same in Texas here and just as an aside. So on the political front, John Corning is the incumbent senator and he's running for reelection and rather than and a Republican now. He's not a, he's, but, you know, he's supportive of the president, but he's not a rabid Trump guy. And so rather than endorse a, a guy who would win the election, if Trump endorsed him, instead he endorses this scoundrel of the first order, Ken Paxton, who is just an awful human and, and crooked as a dog's hind leg and been indicted and, you know, or, or, sorry, was impeached by the House, Texas House representatives for his,

17:45his activities. And instead of endorsing Corning, his guy, he endorses Paxton. And now Texas arguably is in play in terms of the national, you know, in terms of the US Senate race, which makes, again, no sense whatsoever. It's like the polio thing again. Well, it's like you need a neck brace to follow it because it's such a headshaker, you know, it's ridiculous. It's ridiculous. And that doesn't spell, that doesn't auger well, by the way, for resolving our problems. And there are many. And it, you know, throughout the Western world, of course, Canada is not unique. And the US may be leading the way with sovereign debt, for example, there, you know, and other problems like that. That's not how you're going to solve them in the end. Let me come back to something that's going to be part of that solution or not. And it's something you are the leader on this. It's just talking before we jumped on board the AI bandwagon, you know, you started to monitor, hey, wait a second, not everybody's in support of this. And you started to track this sort of opposition to the data centers and the AI, you know, and all that that entailed. Can you give us just a quick bit of background for

18:52how you got into that where it's at now? You know, is it going to be a smooth sailing as maybe the stock market suggests it's going to be? It's a remarkable political situation. And to be clear, I've got no dog in this fight. I'm a reporter. I've been following politics and doing this for close to 40 years. I have never seen anything like the backlash that is underway here in the US against data centers AI and big tech. It's unprecedented. On what other issue do you have? I mean, so, you know, Carney gets a gift from Trump to unite the left and the right in their opposition to the US, right? They're discussed at the US and discussed it at Trump. And, you know, great for Carney, you know, he's going to use it. He's a smart guy. The opposition to data centers and AI and big tech in the US, now you can see it across the political spectrum from the far left Bernie Sanders and AOC to the Josh Hawley and the Tea Party crowd on the right. All of them essentially

19:52saying the same thing that we don't trust AI. We don't trust big tech. What have they done for us? And you see it in the numbers. And I've documented this in the data center rejection database, which you can find on my website, Robert Bryce.com. I have documented now, along with my son, Jacob, who's in Berlin, we've documented now 290 rejections or restrictions of data centers in the US just since January 1st of this year. And that's in the US alone. Remember, there was just a rejection in Alberta just last month of a data of proposed data center project. But to put the US numbers in perspective, so 290 so far this year, there were 49 in all of last year and in 2024, there were nine. So, I mean, I've never seen anything like this where you have such a broad cultural backlash against that big tech and these data center projects. And we can go into the reasons for it. But I think this has become one of the biggest issues in US politics and effectively out of

20:57nowhere. Speaking of the reasons, I'm wondering if there's a discomfort with big tech, there's a feeling that we're not in control. They've introduced something that we're going to continually get told that it's all powerful, but we don't understand it. I'm saying broadly speaking, of course. Do you think that's really the opposition and data centers become the poster child for that? If you know what I mean, the focal point. Let me give you this bit of context, Mike, because I think it's important to understand. And I've been, I started this data center rejection database because my son, Jacob, who lives in Berlin, said, Dad, this data center is getting a lot of backlash here in Europe. Let's start, let's start tracking it. Well, I've been doing the renewable rejection database now for 16 years. And so this was a natural follow on to that because these are land use conflicts. So what, what I've documented very well in the in the rejections of big wind and big solar is local communities. And you see this in Alberta, particularly in Ontario, right? This is what grounds zero in Canada for opposition to especially big wind, but local communities, and this is across the board. They're not

22:02nimbis. They're local people saying we're concerned about our viochettes. We're concerned about our property values. We're concerned about how this affects the character of our of our neighborhoods. Everyone everywhere cares about their neighborhoods. So you add those, they take those issues. And then you bring in data centers and then the issue of rising electricity prices, water consumption, and then add on the discussed with big tech, the fear of AI and jobs, and concerns about privacy and and and concerns about AI and jobs and the potential damage that AI can do. And you have a perfect set of issues that appeals across the political spectrum. And that's why we're seeing this kind of a backlash. And it again, I mean, it really has come out of nowhere. And now we did a mini documentary called the Data Center backlash and published it in May. I didn't have any particular insight on this. I knew it was in a big issue. I did not know it was going to be one of the key issues for the November elections. And it clearly is. When you say for the November elections is one side or the

23:06one party or the other sort of taking this issue on the the opposition to it. I'm thinking in the Democrats, they got a lot of money from big tech. You know, but the Democrats are running hard against. And now, the polls show that the Democratic voters tend to be more opposed to data centers than the Republicans than the conservatives. But the problem for the conservatives is Trump is saying, well, I love data centers and he put up some, you know, another. I don't want to be too negative here. But I think an insensitive tweet or so true social saying, let data rain. You know, these people don't know what this. Sincerely, there's an attitude among the elites that these local people just don't know what's good for them. And they just are, you know, and they've been called Luddites. People going to Luddites are no wrong. The masses are not asses. That's Carl Rove used that line a long time ago when, you know, when I interviewed him. People know what's going on. They see what's happening. And as a friend of mine put it, you know, this backlash, it could be

24:11explained in a lot of different ways. But one of the simplest is that they look at big tech and they know they can't fight Google and Microsoft or Amazon. They can't do, take a stick at the Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg online, but they can fight them at the local zoning board. And that's what they're doing. Interesting. Well, it sounds very reminiscent of, you know, a win product that you keep such close track on too is that at the local level, it was rejected when you have these major wind farms or what have you as being, you know, proposed. And again, people can go to Robert Price dot sub sack dot com. You got the information there because that's a fascinating story too. How the public got together neighborhoods got together and opposed these major wind projects too. So it sounds very similar to me. And it is similar in this other regard to my, and I've interviewed, you know, over the last 16 years, hundreds of people who have fought big solar projects, been with big wind projects, big battery projects. And I saw it particularly, I was now about two years ago, I was in Michigan. My wife is in is from Ann Arbor. And there was,

25:14we went to this Ida township, which is about an hour's drive outside of near Ann Arbor. And I thought I was going to meet with one or two people. There was a big solar project that was proposed for this little township. I thought I was going to meet one or two people, 12 people showed to me that this little diner. And what became apparent was that they were Republicans, they were Democrats. They were, you know, they were somewhere wealthy, some were just getting by, but they came together because they had a common opponent. And that's with wind and solar. And I think this same dynamic is playing out with data centers. And, you know, there's been these claims by, well, your fellow countryman, Kevin O'Leary, who does himself no favors because he's such a world-class fincter. But, you know, he was proposing a data center in in Box Elder County, Utah, nine in May. It was in May, 900 people showed up to oppose the project. Wow. Well, 900. I mean, so people are putting aside whatever differences they have about whether they

26:15like Trump, don't like Trump, you know, whether Republican Democrat, but they are looking at these issues. And these data centers are this physical manifestation, physical example of all these issues that they feel frustrated by, you know, and concerned about the class divide, you know, the the Silicon Valley zillionaires on their 500-foot long, 500-million dollar yachts. And, you know, so this is one area where they can fight back and say, you know, stuff it, we don't want it here, go somewhere else. Fascinating. Hey, I don't want to finish without getting a couple of other things from you because in Canada, we've got a prime minister who is a very lotatory toward what's going on in the EU. You know, we have literally, if I'm sure you see me shaking my head right now, they literally have, you know, a significant number. I think about half of Canadians would like to join the EU. And I go, give your head a shake, you don't know what's going on there. And I know that your son has been writing some stuff and you know, why the sick man of Europe is

27:19so sick, that's Germany, which represents nearly a quarter of the GDP of the EU. So it's the most prominent member. Maybe elaborate a little bit on that. Why is the sick man of Europe so sick? You know, I'm so lucky, Mike. I get to work with all of my children, Lauren and I married 40 years. We have three great kids and I work with all of them in one way or another and on my substack and in my publishing. And you know, two or three months ago, Jacob, who's in Berlin, we're going to go see him later this month. He said, I want to write a thing about what I see here. And he's 26. And so we published it now just in mid-August and the article is called Germany's self-inflicted decline. Right. Yeah. He interviewed and he's working as a cook in Berlin and likes Berlin. That's not crazy about the Germans. Go figure. But what he saw there was that there, you know, the excessive

28:22levels of taxation, roughly half of you work hard and the government takes about half of your paycheck. So he found that particularly people, his age, Germans, his age, are many of them are just quit working because it's easier for them to take the welfare check to be on the dole than to work. And he said, then you add in the issues around high energy costs, high cost of living and the vast bureaucracy, you know, just trying to get anything done in Germany. He said, just there's so much friction that many of the people are his friends, his contemporaries, the people that he knows, Germans want to leave Germany. And so this is a very worrisome situation where you've got, you know, the economy that has for decades been the powerhouse industrial economy of Europe is in fact still the sick man of Europe. And it's all self-inflicted. They did it to themselves with this excessive pride and their foolishness about energy. Yeah, I was going to say,

29:25I mean, their energy policies, you know, I mean, the highlight for me is they didn't realize that wind and solar were intermittent. So they had no backup at one point. I've got a five-year-old grandson who understands it does sunshine every day and the wind don't blow. You know, but of course, look at the decommissioning of their nuclear power, which now seems to be having a renaissance in terms of even the backlash against it is lost a lot of credibility, but there they did commission their nuclear power. But it just didn't seem that they had a functional energy policy that did anything that raised the other than raised the prices of energy making them less competitive, you know, in manufacturing, for example, it's as you say and your son said in that piece, self-inflicted. Yeah. And this is due to the energy vendor. This so-called energy transition, they've already spent something like 500 billion euros on the energy vendor. Their electricity costs are among the highest in the world, not just the US, or not just in Europe, the highest in the world. These

30:30are highly regressive. Rich folks don't really care about the cost of energy. Poor folks care about it a lot. And then you add in all these job layoffs by some of the biggest industrial players in Germany. And then the fact that Germany won't drill for oil and gas, they relied heavily on Moscow rather before the invasion of Ukraine. And now they're completely back-footed. And we talked about before about the price of natural gas that's being imported into Europe. These are back-breaking prices. And so it really is unfortunate. And it's just curious, though, that you know, Germany now gets in during the first quarter of this year, 89% of the LNG that Germany imported came from the US. Yeah, incredible. I don't want to run out of time before. I also talk about something that you've got up on Robert Bryce.substac.com. And that is you've got a new documentary that you've just put out on Vietnam. You call it Vietnam plugs in. I think the relevance

31:33is because Vietnam is talking about an emerging market, I mean, on the way up. And you know, a lot of companies uncomfortable with what's going on in China. Maybe you want to deflect some of that or deflect some of the human rights criticism, et cetera. That's one of the reasons. But explain a little bit more when you talk about Vietnam and the energy side of that. Sure. Well, so I mentioned I'm an old guy. You know, I'm 66. So, you know, I grew up in the 60s and 70s when the Vietnam War was on the news, you know, pretty much every night. So I grew up with the specter of Vietnam in my head. And I was invited to do some speaking engagements in Singapore and Koala, and poor in July. And so I thought, well, I went with my wife and we thought, well, we're going all the way around the world. Where else could we go kind of close to Singapore and just cease and place new? So we went to Saigon for five days. And I had been studying up on Vietnam because of it's, you know, the size of its economy, the rapid growth of their economy. And in particular,

32:34the use of coal for power generation. But the, but the, the land, the, the extra part of it that to me was really intriguing was that Vietnam now has the largest trade surplus with the US of any country in the world, bigger than Mexico, bigger than China. So we went to Saigon. It's a boom town. I mean, just incredible. The, you know, the activity, the amount of construction cranes. We had it. We stayed in the Hilton, the Saigon Hilton next to the Saigon River all day long, boast going, barges going up and down the river, carrying steel, concrete, construction cranes, gravel, you know, sand, you know, it's, it's go-go time everywhere in Vietnam. So remarkable. But, the, you know, but how, what is the punchline of this documentary that we made this I did with my daughter Mary, was that the US is not really using less coal instead what we've done is export our coal use to Southeast Asia. And China and, and we're not China, but a lot of companies are moving their operations or moving new operations into Vietnam instead of boosting their operations

33:36in China. But, you know, Vietnam has the fastest growing coal fleet in the world. And, you know, they're doing what is the, what is in their own self interest, which is getting the lowest cost electricity that they can find. And, and the companies that are moving there are ones that we all know. LG, Samsung, you know, Adidas, Nike, you name it. They're moving to Vietnam because big workforce cheap electricity. And, they're not in China. Well, and by the way, I mean, there's investments we can make, you know, you can do the Van Act Vietnam ETF. I think that symbol is VNM, you know, I'm just saying I just sent it a fascinating story. And you've got, as I say, I remind people you've got the, the documentary there and as you're ex, you know, describing it's sort of an explosion in Asia. And I just think as investors, as just understanding the global changes we're seeing is, you know, is, is such an important story. The other one, by the way, I should have said on Robert Bryce dot sub stack dot com, you've got the short documentary, the data center backlash, just we were talking about that a moment ago. I'm

34:38just, I should have mentioned that, but that that that was also very good and gives people a real grounding in that. You got a lot of good stuff on that, by the way, that sub stack. Well, thank you. I'm, you know, I'm having, I'm such a, I'm so lucky Mike to do what I do. I'm, you know, it's my purpose and my passion. And I get to work with, as I told you, work with my children and, and I travel the world and, you know, write about energy and power. It's, it's, I'm, I'm having great fun. Well, I so appreciate you finding time to share your expertise and your experience with us here and encourage people to go to the sub stack, find power hungry on Twitter, on x, pardon me, on x, you know, simple, but go to Robert Bryce, Bryce is spelled, v, r, y, c, e, Robert, Bryce dot sub stack dot com. Robert, look forward to the next time we'll chat. This is terrific. Thanks a million, Mike. I'm going to bring Rob Levy in right now. You can find him at bordergold.com. Hey, Rob, I want to throw a subject at you. We've been hearing a lot, going to hear a lot more about the Canada

35:39investment summit. You know, it's just a couple of weeks away in Toronto. We've got Prime Minister Karney hosting along with the Canada pension plan and the PSP. The target is to raise a trillion dollars of investment over five years. I think the target is to talk about doing that, you know, and come away with something which I sort of wonder about. Yeah, I support. Let's get a trillion dollars in here over the next five years. But I don't think there's any mystery why we have not been particularly successful at that over the last 10 years. But I thought was interesting. Did you catch CIBC's very well known economist Avery Shenfeld? He put out a report that really kind of walked through some things that Canadians believe about this that just doesn't hold up to scrutiny. I did, Mike, and it's interesting to bring this up because, you know, this is a topic that is going to start to get, I think, a lot more attention in the next couple of weeks because it's federal liberals big pledge. As you said, a trillion dollars over five years. But, you know, to one of Shenfeld's points right off the bat is it should be a trillion more dollars coming into

36:44Canada over the next five years because there's already investment that's going on in this country. So, you know, deciphering and getting into the weeds a little bit of what's actually taking place in terms of foreign investment and direct investment in this country and some of these big infrastructure projects that they're touting. And, you know, I think if you sort of drill down to it and look at what he's saying most simply is there's not a shortage of capital available out there for these projects. It's show us that there's worthwhile projects at the margins and that's when the money is going to start to flow in. But, we're already competing for capital in Canada. How are we going to start to make a difference or go after more money or that marginal dollar? I think that's such a key point though is that we ought to appreciate that there's a lot of other places to put money. We've been experiencing that in the oil sector for years, by the way. Money that was going to go to Canada when somewhere else were in a competition. I'm still just sitting there saying, what are they going to say in that summit that we don't already know? I mean, we've had lots of qualified people weigh in, people who spend their time with this and weigh in. I mean, I would think if it was a great project,

37:47they'd be doing it already. And I think you've hit the nail right on the head with that one. And that's the point that CIBC makes as well is, you know, investing in major projects is an opportunity cost for capital. So, money's already going somewhere. What's going to attract that next investment dollar to these type of projects that are prime minister. The federal government is sort of touting on these national infrastructure levels that's going to drive investment dollars here to Canada. And it's talking about both attracting funds from our domestic pensions because they're a big part of this summit, whether it's CPPIB or some of the public sector pension boards who are co-hosting the summit with the prime minister or foreign investors from all over the world. The big names, the black rocks, the Macquaries, the private equities like KKR, who are all supposedly coming, showing interest in it. But I guarantee a question they're going to be asking is how is things going to be different? How's the landscape going to change in Canada because you go back a decade and what the investment environment looked like? There wasn't a clear sort of process of

38:48getting projects to market or a completion timeline. And I think that's where the challenge lies. Well, we have the major projects office. But Energy Minister Tim Hodson himself said that it's the regulatory environment broadly speaking across all other potential projects that is the trouble. And we have not made, and he says the Energy Minister himself said we have not done anything in that regard. So if the government doesn't approve you and doesn't support you and pushes you through the major projects office, then nothing's happening. And I just think, again, I'm just wondering what information are they going to get that changes? And I want to make sure people know you're not saying this part I am. So I get the hate mail. But come on, why don't we start by asking Prime Minister Karni? What would it take for him to take his investment that's interest and move it into Canada because we know about 90% of that was invested elsewhere. Okay, I'm not going to nail you with that, but it does occur to me when we talked about this, you know, but other countries, our companies,

39:51pardon me, are obviously doing it. So yeah, I just I think we, I mean, good, good. Let's talk about it. I'm glad I'll pat them on the back. Let's talk about this. But man, let's come up with a definitive plan to attract capital here, a definitive plan that means changes in legislation, tax policy, regulatory policy, get the the provincial premieres on board and get specific. No, you know, I'm still in that camp that says enough talk already. I think that's fair, but interestingly too, that's one of the so-called myths that Shemfeld even looks at in the BUNKS as he talks about the idea of domestic investment versus foreign investment because that's even one of the sort of the major criticisms. Our pensions are notorious for investing money overseas and not necessarily in Canada. And of course, you know, there's a lot of scrutiny about foreign investors and coming into the Canadian market and what kind of risks that poses. He says not necessarily the case when you're talking about a major piece of infrastructure or mine because it's not the the scare that you're

40:52going to take that out. Some sort of proprietary knowledge, but Shemfeld says that's what exchange rates are for. And if you're a foreign investor, you bring those dividends or those capital returns back to Canada and you might spend it or invest those domestically. So Shemfeld sort of calls that one of those half-miss about or misconceptions about these, these foreign dollars in his. Well, one thing I bet on is we're going to get a big number announced, you know, coming out of that summit. And just what's your take on that? Well, I want to know what the marginal differences. I mean, that's really where it comes down to for me because there are projects that are going to take place, especially as we have this sort of tariff uncertainty with the US and there is a drive to diversify our export markets. So what's it doing for the margins? It's going to create jobs, but where those jobs going to be hired or absorbed elsewhere. So it does get into sort of the minutiae, the weeds, the details a little bit, but I think it challenges us to think critically about what's going on and sort of how's growth performing on the margin versus growth that would have naturally already happened or taken place anyway. And let's see if there's any regulatory change,

41:55or other changes, you know, that facilitate the attraction of that kind of capital too would be on my list. And I agree with you on that one as well, Mike. So again, it's not that there's a shortage of capital. It's a weak-ridden environment that incentivizes the return to bring investors to this country. And I think to a part of that is what's going to be the approval process, what's going to be the regulatory framework, how's this economic environment changing in Canada that might bring in some of these international investors to attract those dollars? Well, I hope whatever they do works, you know, that's the key. Is that we have been lacking in investment capital, capital, whether it's coming from outside inside wherever, whatever else is happening. I hope it works. I just saying it's time to get a little more realistic. Rob, thanks for taking the time. Thank you, Mike. Time now for the quote of the week, you know, for a decade and more, environmentalists has used the mantle of indigenous advocacy to oppose resource development projects. You can talk about the Northern Gateway Trans Mountain. They ignore the diverse

42:58perspectives within the indigenous communities. Often we're left with the perspective in the media reports that all First Nations oppose that resource development. Pushing back against this overreach though, our quote of the week features Stephen Buffalo, a member of the Samsung Cree Nation, President of the CEO and CEO of the Indian Resource Council. He argues that shutting down these projects to prize First Nations of economic equality. In quotes, we have heard also a great deal from environmentalists, many of whom proudly declare that they are working on behalf of the First Nations. We do not need that. They do not speak for all of us. We share the environmentalist concern about the future of our planet, but wonder why they're so determined to undercut the few opportunities we have to enjoy the kind of economic prosperity that non-indigenous people take for granted in this country. One of the big challenges that we've been chronically on money talks for a number of years is how tough it is for people to make ends meet, starting with the price of food,

44:02other groceries. And of course, one of the parts of that, and we've dealt with it, is supply management and dairy. But the other side, people have a lot of questions about, is the rising beef prices. You can talk about ground beef or I guess more premium cuts there. So I thought, let's delve into that today. I'm really pleased to have with me Rob Carlyan. Now he has been in this business a long time in the beef and cattle business. Rod, I appreciate you taking time for me. You bet Michael, happy to bring some clarity to the situation and inform the listeners. Well, just give us a little brief minute on your background. You've been in this for a long time, as I said. Yeah, thanks Michael. Yes, I've been in the cattle side of the farming operation since 1990, which gives us 36 years of experience. Wow. And I have some education. I did go to university and try and get a little smarter. And we have a little bit of a job in this

45:05ag industry. And currently we farm and ranch as a family operation with my wife and I have three daughters and two are very active in the operation. Well, let's talk about the beef prices. I mean, who hasn't noticed when they've gone to their various grocery stores, the huge jump. I mean, I was thinking what, beef prices went up like 17, 18% in 2025, at least on some stores, that kind of thing. You know, we've got more movement. And I want to just delve into why that is, especially to be honest. I mean, doesn't mean that you're making a lot more money in that business, does it? Yeah, it's a very interesting situation currently, but it takes time to get there. So, and what I mean by that is that as a cow calf operator, we're at the end of this supply chain. We start the calf. We start the mom and dad. And we're at the bottom. So we don't have anywhere to

46:09pass on a cost increase. We're at, so we're generally speaking if things get tough, people have to liquidate or try and cut costs. When things get a little better than usually the first thing that farmer does is rebuild back up to where they want to be in their herd. If you look at, and there's a lot, they're actually very good data in Canada, usually supplied by Statistics Canada. But if you look at a cow calf operator in Canada, three-quarters of them have an off-arm job in their family. That is a sign of they can be profitable, but it's at a very low margin, such that they can't make a family make an income for their family. Now, to absolute honest, in the last five years, farmers lost money the first three of those five. Well, that's the thing that I think 24, we made a bit.

47:102025 was one of the more profitable years of the last 10. But what determines that profitability in this way? I'm thinking of obviously what you can sell for and what your costs are. I mean, I'm looking at feed costs or is it demand pushes it up? To what extent that formula is and how much do you control of it? Yeah, we control virtually none of it. Because again, we're at the end of all that supply chain until the consumer sees beef on their plate. And there's many, many hands along the way to enable that to come from that cow calf operation. And the thing that farmers actually feel slightly embarrassed about is the price of beef. Because they go, but they eat too. They're buying food and groceries too. So they kind of go, oh my goodness, yes, the price has gone up. But we're doing our dandruff and we're just taking the

48:13price that we get. And that is built through the supply chain and it's demand-driven. We, you know, and demand-driven meaning if prices are up, that means demand is exceeding the supply that we currently have. But for a farm, it takes three years, at least three years before the impact of a decision at the cow calf level to say, I'm going to raise another calf. It's three years before that animal is going to see a consumer's plate. And so that time horizon is like many other industry sectors where you are doing something today, but you're hoping it's going to work out in the future. The reverse is, so we have high demand. So we have higher prices. That indicates, oh, okay, let's raise more calves because we have enough money to do that. Well, we can't turn that beef to the consumer for three more years.

49:17Well, and that's a great example also of, you know, you have to react to the price at the markets giving you, but at the same time, you know, you might have feed costs that go up I would assume. You know, that seems to be something I've been reading about. Absolutely. If you look at our, I'll call it our inputs. You know, fertilizer is doubled in the last five years. Farm equipment has doubled in the last 10 years. Land has doubled in the last 10 years. I don't need to speak about fuel because everybody here is very familiar with fuel. So we have no control over that. And we had a little bump in interest rates a couple of three years ago. So for those who are working on, you know, sub-operating lines, they've got that up as well. So we have all our virtually all of our inputs have gone up. So if we look at our cost structure, yeah, it's our costs are up 50% in the last five years. So it's not as if, you know,

50:20all that gravy train is, is, is true profit at the, at the farm level. And just so I'm clear, so you sit there, you don't control those costs in terms of, you know, you don't get to say, this is what I'm paying for energy, for example, or this is what I'm paying for feed, et cetera. But then on the cell side, you don't also don't control that. I just want people to be clear on that. I mean, you know, you sort of get a price set for you. Yeah. Well, absolutely. And we're in a, you know, we are a bit fortunate that we are still in a fairly free trade environment on the beef side. And that's around the world. And also with our partner to the south. And we benefited from, in the beef industry, 1911 was the first free trade agreement signed with the US and has still had since then. Wow. So our price is dictated around the world because beef moves reasonably trade free. And so, you know, the poor, I'll call

51:26it the poor consumer in Canada, maybe seeing a price the squeeze to them that they're, you know, check out on the beef side. But we're selling beef. I say, we the big we, I don't, I don't sell it, but somebody else in our supply chain does. And if a consumer in Japan has a better economy and is making more money and wants to buy more beef, they will spend that money. And if they spend that money, then we can supply it from wherever in the world. And we have premium top quality beef. So we have product going to, I'm using Japan as a country, but there's many that purchase our beef as well. What was your reaction when we were talking about importing beef though from Brazil, for example, off the top of my head? Yeah. So we currently in Canada, we do export more dollars of beef than we import. Often what happens is that we export products that Canadian consumers

52:29demand less of. And so those products are going to other countries to demand more. But the example is is Canadians do love their burger. And so often we import product from other countries that can go into that burger manufacturing. And so that's an example of when we import beef that comes to Canada from, let's say some some South American countries or Australia. Often that's coming into that, we call it that burger ground beef trade because it is something we love to, we love to have a barbecue and have a burger, right? Just a couple of things as they say, when I'm on the outside, I read certain things and just wanted to see, you know, it seems to me that we've had several droughts in Western Canada, but is it true that the actual cattle herds are very low levels? Well, yes. And so that is the history of so drought generally means you have

53:35increased feed costs. So that just means you have less plant material around and beef eats, I call it waste material that isn't in the human food chain. It's not something that we want to eat as humans. So it goes into our beef sector. And so when farmers are faced with a higher cost from a growth perspective, plus the general inflation of all the other things we've seen, they have to sell cows to make their living. So they say, well, you know, we paid all the bills, but now we need to make a living so I sell 10 mother cows, 10 less cows. Now that impact is not felt right away because that cow had a baby and it's going to come to the consumer in three years, but in three years time now, we have less animals. And so that trend is how happened. I say that our last major profitability time period was 2014, 15 and 16.

54:40Other than that, we've been kind of limping along since 2002. So we got 24 years here where we've been under a bit of pressure. And so people just say, well, I'm going to have less cows because I'm not making enough money. I'm maybe going to grow some grains because they were more profitable. And that trend has continued. And so if again, if an listener is interested, you can look at that date up with stats, Canada and see yes, less cows, why less profitability. It seems though, just as a final takeaway is that, yeah, you're not in control of your cost because you're bringing them in and you're not control of the sale because, well, you know, demand helps you, but you can't control that. And as you say, three year time lag, if you're everyone, hey, they got some demand going up. I want to take advantage. Well, it's three years later you get to. I mean, this just seems like an incredibly difficult business. As you say, and some people saying, I'm going to get out of the cattle side of things, the beef side of things. And I'm going to move into maybe an easier crop,

55:42you know, that at least is profitable at this point. So yeah, are you looking for and I'm forcing you to put on your Chris or put a crystal ball in front of you. But from what you see now, should we expect some relief at least in beef prices, maybe in 27 or something like that? I would probably late 27 because we have seen a small bump in Canada, but again, we have to understand Canada is, you know, in the world, actually, a very small player in the beef trade. So we may see a small bump in supply. And like all markets beef is no different markets over React. And so, you know, whether we're at the glass ceiling or not, but you know, we get pent-up demand and people think, oh, it's just going to be more expensive next year or next week or next month. And so generally, I kind of suggest we're at our peak in price. And we're probably going

56:47to trend down a little bit and find a, you know, a more, you know, moderate floor if that makes sense. And, and, and, but the question is, is, is that going to be seen by the consumer or somebody else going to pocket that? That is a good question. No, that's a very important point. That's the point I want people to understand is that when you see the rising beef prices you've heard here, it doesn't mean the farmer is getting the money. They don't actually create, they can't control their cost structure, even the demand side for the prices. So it's a long supply chain before we show up at the grocery store and buy it. And yeah, it's just, I just want to emphasize, it's been a very difficult time in that business. Despite what you see as rising prices actually, to me, Rod could signal how tough a time it's been. Correct. And the other one is, is that, you know, let's call it the 25 was a good year, the good times and 26 is looking maybe not as good, but good. It's also a signal that if you're getting a little older like some of us, you go,

57:54maybe we're going to be smart and sell out at the high. Yeah, or near the high, right? Like any good market you go, well, maybe we're going to get older, we're going to reduce. And the question will be is, is somebody else replacing that inventory or is it gone forever? Yeah. Well, this has been fascinating, Rod. And I really appreciate you finding time for us here. And I think a lot of people are not as well aware of what that business is like. And as I say, you've illuminated that for us so much appreciated. Thanks for finding time. Yeah, thanks. Thanks for the opportunity. And yeah, we'd love to have clarity and information so that we have better understanding and make better decisions. Absolutely. Rob Carlisian joins us from Alberta. He's on the ranch. He's doing the real deal. Appreciate it. Thank you. I'm now for the shocking stat of the week. Well, maybe it's not shocking, but one that we should be

58:54aware of. I'm talking about the number of sick days lost in the private sector versus the number lost in the public sector, which of course taxpayers pay. And by the way, in the case of government essential services, the taxpayer actually pays twice the salary of the regular employee plus they pay the salary of the replacement worker. That estimated something like 1.5 billion per year versus the private sector where the companies share holders pay with some of the costs passed on maybe to consumers if they can do it, but the loss productivity also has a cost and it's a significant drag on the economy. In the public sector, though, the number of days lost due to illness average something like 13.4 days last year versus the private sector, which was 7.5 days. This is consistent if you look back over the last three years, similar numbers. The near six day gap between public and private sectors represents the widest gap in absenteeism between the two sectors in nearly 40 years. Now, that's can't say the difference is due mainly to three factors. One,

59:59unionization, public sector workers are highly unionized, which translates to excellent paid leave entitlements. Private sector workers often face a lack of paid sick days, meaning that they are more likely to work through illness because taking a day off impacts the paycheck. The second reason, workforce demographics, the public sector has an older average workforce age. Statistically, older workers suffer more frequently from chronic health conditions or longer recovery times. And finally, gender composition. The public sector has a higher percentage of women, largely driven by massive workforces and like healthcare and education, but they statistically utilize health leave more frequency. Bottom line, there is a significant gap, and one we should be aware of. We're just in the preliminary stages of finding out what's been going on in the real estate market across the country, you know, in August. But I want to bring Aussie Jurick in here, maybe just get a little preview of what we're seeing so far, you know, the numbers are going to be

1:01:01coming out as fast and furious. But what did you see from the Vancouver region in those August numbers? We had sort of the last few months we had a situation with the single family home market actually showed more sales and prices were sort of stiffening. Well, in August sales were down about 3%, which is just sort of a bounding era. And at the average price was actually up by 3%. So you take your pick. The big thing is across the board, not just in Vancouver, but right across the country, listings are coming down lower. So like for Vancouver, the active listings are down 12% in the phrase of hourly, they're down 19%. So people putting their properties on the market fewer, either they're thinking they can do better later or simply their market is sort of soaking up all the cheaper prices or cheaper places. The converse sales were also down about 6% and their price was down more. It was down also 6%. So, you know, the stiffening of the stink

1:02:07bit, you know, is still going on. So prices, because prices, when you look at, you look at the Vancouver price went from $1,983,000 and it was $1,930,000 last August. Oh, we were up 63,000. But in 2024, the high was $2,347,000 or some $364,000 more. So we've come down substantially in the phrase of hourly, even more so over $500,000 per million, $9,000 per million, $2,000,000. So I think we are bottom building. There's no doubt about it. Or at least you're seeing a lot of deals coming through at better prices. It's interesting too, because you know, we're still in that tug of war in the mortgage rate market. We had the Bank of Canada of coast come out on on Wednesday, you know, keeping great steady, seventh consecutive time there. And you look at the, you know, so many people infected on variable rate mortgages. I think the estimate is something like $800,000,000 in variable rate mortgages in Canada. You got the home equity lines accredited on top of that, personal lines,

1:03:09you know, that kind of stuff. I mean, it's a huge number, but it still is very up in the air what the next move will be, you know, for the Bank of Canada with, you know, cost of living going up. And again, thanks to the energy prices moving when, you know, do they want to follow that? Do they want to stay that far below the US? Because they're significantly below the US. But I'm in reading a lot of people thinking, you know, you better grab that sort of 4% 5 year fix while you got it because there's too much uncertainty around it. I know the variables attractive, but of course, you're taking the risk that rates could go up higher coming through. Well, the point here, and I think that's an excellent point to make, the variable rates don't change with the Bank of Canada. So the Bank of Canada announcement has had no impact on your line of credits and all that kind of stuff. However, the bond rates are dramatically impacting your, your fixed rate. And that's where you're making the point because in the United States, we see in 10 year rates for the first time over 4.8% or 30 year rate. It's going up not just in the US.

1:04:14It's going up in Germany, I was talking to a friend of mine in Germany, he says, all of Europe has higher rates. England has higher rates than, than, than the US does. So when we look at our 10 year rate, which is still below 4%, and that is tied to the mortgage rates in our bond situation, that fixed mortgage at say 4.5 or somewhere is maybe a God's send if you believe the bond rates are going to go higher. Well, there certainly is pressure. And I love your distinction. There is the short term rate, Bank of Canada talks that, but the bond rate is what people are willing to lend money at. And clearly, as you say, the Japan is my other example, Aussie. I mean, my goodness, if you look at a chart, you get net, you need a neck brace to see how fast those rates have been going up there. But as you say, it's sort of a global phenomena. We'll see how it goes. But it's something that people who are in the market, who have a market, who are going to get one should consider. That's all. You know, I mean, at least understand that the pressure really internationally has been for higher rates. That will have an impact. I don't want to throw a curveball at you, but

1:05:18here's something that caught my eye this week that there is a BC Supreme Court judge ruled that 39 pre-sale condos on a bird of be tower. A lot of money involved are not enforceable though. That's the key. And I can hear a lot of people right now going, I wish I didn't have my pre-sale. Can you tell me with this? So give me the details of that. Yeah, the headline says the buyers get out of the deal, you know, but I was talking to Rocky City from Skype strike crew who makes the point that the Red Madder, the real estate development marketing act, which was applied in this case, did not apply to make you cover you against market conditions. In fact, this particularly deal was the developer fall behind the schedule in 2023. He had 12 million dollar tax judgment along the way. He had his warrant to ensure and suspend it in 2024. Construction stop and didn't restart until the case was in the court. And finally, in January 25th, the senior lender was

1:06:19225 million and it was in cut out of protection. So none of it by itself is a legal problem. That's not a problem. Developers get in trouble and financial trouble and so on and that happens. But what got this developer and fund of a judge is that buyers were told any of it even after their contracts were signed. And that's where the real estate development marketing act says, hey, that's a breach of that act. You know, developers have to give purchase a disclosure statement with material facts up front and it doesn't stop at signing rights through the construction period. If there's any changes, you have to tell them they're didn't and that's why the judge ruled that way. That doesn't mean that just because the market goes down that you're going to get out of a contract. Yeah. So unique circumstances produce that verdict or that ruling. But the other thing just quickly, you know, when I make a pre sale, I put my deposit down, where does that money go? It goes into a trust account. And that's why in most cases, sometimes that is tied up forever

1:07:21because they're fighting over it, but it's still there, even though there's judgments and so on, a lot of people fighting over all the money that is developed, always the trust account that protects your deposit. Well, we know those pre sale owners in that particular building. I've got a bigger smile in their face than they've probably been suffering for a while on that one. Ozzy, you go out and have a terrific week. I will, Michael. And please, please remember, came across that yesterday. They say people often say that motivation doesn't last. Well, Zieg Ziegler said neither does bathing. That's why we recommend it daily. More with Ozzy, Jeric. We'll be back next week with all the details and what's going on in the real estate market. Say with us, I got Victor Adair on deck here. I've got a Goofy award. I'm going to go live to the trading desk now. Victor Adair joins me. One of the things that you've been talking to us about is that, you know, we're right at the end

1:08:22of the dog days of summer and things are really going to pick up traditionally after labor day. So I guess we're here. Yeah, I've been saying for some time that I expect the markets to get real after we get through Labor Day, the silly season, as we call it in August. Well, I tell you, we got a ton of stuff on the agenda. There's all kinds of meetings. All the major central banks are going to be meeting there. We are now 60 days away from the midterm elections in the US. And, you know, that's going to be a big factor. But I think the key thing here this past week or so has been interest rates. You know, we've got the around the world. Long bog yields are at high levels in Japan. It's a 30 year high, 30 year high, pardon me. But we've got a fed meeting coming up here on the 16th and it's going to be very key. We had just on Friday morning, the employment data was stronger than expected. So it's it's kind of like if the CPI data and the PPI data that we get ahead

1:09:24of that bed meeting comes out and it's hot. And I'm going to tell you from the research I've been doing, it looks like there's a good chance it'll be hot. Then if the Fed does not raise interest rates, I think the bond market is going to be under even more pressure because it'll look like the Fed isn't doing the job to keep inflation in check. Well, it's a huge tug of war, you know, that and I know just in case people hadn't seen that post by President Trump where he basically said, you know, if the Fed doesn't lower rates and September 16th is the next meeting, if they don't lower rates, then he is going to cut off trade with any country that runs a trade deficit with the US. First of all, he doesn't understand what that is, but I'll take him at his word. He wants to do that. Well, that's Canada and Mexico. I mean, there's so much coming out of that alone, but as you say, the pressure is not not for them to lower rates, but to raise rates when you look at, as you say, some of the different ways they measure inflation, what businesses pay for goods and services,

1:10:28you know, it's inflationary, along with that new employment number at least puts pressure that way. Well, I've said for a couple of weeks here that war seems to be backing himself into a corner. And let me do a segue here per se. Historically, the markets always test a new Fed chairman so far that hasn't come up for worse. Okay. But this may be the test. If the evidence says you should be raising rates, and by evidence, I mean, inflation is not only much higher than where they want it, but it's rising and you don't raise interest rates, then why not? Are you afraid that Trump is going to, you know, box your ears or something? So it's going to be a real test, and I'm afraid that if he doesn't raise rates in the face of higher inflation, the bond markets around the world are going to have a hissy fit. Well, let me add one other thing that makes it so difficult for him because, of course, energy prices have been a big component, but raising rates when it's really a supply problem.

1:11:31You know, if you don't have hormones and you, and also what's been going on when you look at refineries with the drone attack by Ukraine, well, raising rates doesn't change that. You know, when I was looking at the diesel price this week, and that's the one that just, you know, we talked earlier with Rob Carleian about what that does to farmers, you know, is that you've got, you know, your diesel prices go up, obviously transporting virtually everything gets some price, and I looked at that diesel price, raising rates isn't going to change that, but it is sure going to have an impact on our cost of living. Yeah. The rising, the high and rising energy prices is certainly sort of a flagship for inflation. And you can say, yeah, raising rates not going to change that, but there's these other things. For instance, this week, the ISM report was out, and the prices that companies are paying for stuff that they use in their processes is very, let's say at multi-year highs. So this inflation is pervasive. And yeah, diesel in the United States, 585, I think per gallon

1:12:37on diesel, that's the national average, that's an all-time high. Mike, we've talked about this for the past six weeks about how the refineries are running flat out. Now, there's going to be some additional problems. The refineries are going to go into a seasonal shutdown where they re-tool, so they'd be making more, the heating oil, that sort of thing for the winter. There is, refineries are exporting record amounts of product that I have to wonder, we cycle back to Trump again, if Trump, ahead of the election, one of the things he may do is to limit the export of product from the United States to the rest of the world. And of course, Europe's been shooting themselves in the foot by attacking, I shouldn't say Europe, Europe's helping Ukraine attack refineries in Russia. Well, if Trump puts a block on diesel exports to Europe, they're really going to feel it over there. As you said, and you've been saying all along, wait till next week, we will do that next

1:13:37week. There's lots to talk about within that context, but my goodness, you come along here and you look at the stock markets, they're going to do something here, as you say, bonds are going to respond, we'll see what happens in the energy market and the currency markets. I mean, the list is a long one, so you better rest up this weekend, Vic, because you're going to be busy next. Well, you know, I will, Mike, we haven't talked about the Japanese yen and we have talked about it over the past year or so. It does look as though, finally, after declining by more than 50% from all time highs in 2012, they, again, may have made a turn here and we'll start to do a little better. There are a lot of things on the boil, Mike, I'm really looking forward to it. I think it's going to be a hell of a fall. Smoking like a true trader. And by the way, I was considering buying Tokyo, you know, with that when the yen disperential, so I better get on that. Vic, have a great weekend. Thanks, Mike. Find them at victoradair.ca. Victoradair.ca. Get his trading notes as we come in through

1:14:40the long weekend here. And we got more coming for you. Situne, I got a goofy. I'm now for this week's goofy award and you'll have to forgive me because this one is personal, specifically, it absolutely drives me up the wall to hear the news reports and so many members of the commentary report that in the second quarter, Canada's economy grew 3.3%. Without any qualifications, stat can number are not a forecast. It's simply the standard way they report GDP. What upsets me that it would take less than five minutes, well, make that one minute to figure out what's actually being reported or commenting on is that the real GDP rose 0.8% in the second quarter. And that is a long way from 3.3% annual growth. So we're clear. Getting from the second quarter's real rate of growth 0.8% to the annual 3.3 growth requires that the Q2 rate that 0.8% growth continues to

1:15:44compound in each of the next three quarters. And guess what? That is not going to happen. GDP this year is not going to grow at 3.3% as so many reports suggested. Much of the Q2 gain came by the way from recovering exports, especially passenger cars and light vehicles because it had production delays and trade disruptions in the previous two quarters. Now things like household spending, some business investment also helped, but that's not the same as a sustained rise in productivity needed to compound the growth rate at 0.8% in each of the next three quarters. It was kind of like playing golf and shooting par on the first hole and then telling everyone you shot even par 72 for the round. Now already stats can, by the way, preliminary, preliminary GDP growth for July is 0. And now the new US and Canada retaliatory tariffs are going to reduce GDP further with the majority of bank analysts estimating it could trim growth

1:16:45on the order of 0.3 to half a percent point. If they continue for the rest of the year, we'll be fortunate to hit 1% growth in 2026 if this trade dispute continues. In fact, I don't think we will. My goofy goal goes to the people reporting GDP growth and they still are at 3.3% without any qualifiers, goofy because they couldn't be bothered to spend five minutes researching on what this fundamental of measuring the economy actually means. This matters because the aggregate hides hardship. The overall unemployment rate was 6.4% in July, youth unemployment 12.6. Still, by the way, about a quarter above the 2017-19 average, over 9 million Canadians live in food insecurity. Over 2 million are using food banks every month. Solutions require an accurate diagnosis. Weak trend growth, low productivity, uneven labor market outcomes. Misleading the state of the economy obscures these challenges, which are real.

1:17:50The implication that Canada is now growing at 3.3% a year is not. That's all the time we have today. Hey, just a reminder to sign up and go to robbercbrice.substac.com. Sign up for Mike's Money Talks.ca. Sign up for five minutes with Mike. It's absolutely free. Lots of great information there and I appreciate when you do. So stay with us. We'll be back next week and the meantime, I hope you do have a terrific week.